Investigating the Impacts of Earthquakes on Ethnic and Religious Groups: Bucharest, Romania
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Investigating the Impacts of Earthquakes on Ethnic and Religious Groups: Bucharest, Romania Eli Benevedes Owen Lally Hung-En Li Abigail Perlee Eileen Piombino Investigating the Impacts of Earthquakes on Ethnic and Religious Groups: Bucharest, Romania An Interactive Qualifying Project Report Submitted to: The Faculty of Worcester Polytechnic Institute in partial fulfilment of the Bachelor of Science Degree Submitted by: Eli Benevedes Owen Lally Hung-En Li Abigail Perlee Eileen Piombino Date Submitted: May 13, 2021 Report Submitted to: Professors Robert E. Kinicki and Melissa Butler Worcester Polytechnic Institute This report represents the work of one or more WPI undergraduate students submitted to the faculty as evidence of completion of a degree requirement. WPI routinely publishes these reports on the web without editorial or peer review. For more information about the projects program at WPI, see http://www.wpi.edu/Academics/Projects ii Abstract Bucharest, the capital of Romania, experiences a major earthquake every 30-80 years, with the most recent in 1977. Through archival research and interviews with earthquake survivors and experts from Romania, Croatia, Albania, and the United States, this project aimed to explore correlations between social identity and earthquake preparedness in Bucharest. Our results indicate that Bucharest is extremely vulnerable in comparison to other countries. Interviews revealed limitations of Bucharest’s earthquake preparedness, specifically the government's lack of building assessment and citizens’ deep-rooted mistrust due to communist era policies. Despite these challenges to preparedness, NGOs have begun to make progress to improve citizens’ awareness and Bucharest’s disaster response efforts. iii Executive Summary Introduction and Background Since 1990, earthquakes have claimed an average of 27,000 lives worldwide each year (Guha-Sapir, 2011). Beyond loss of life, earthquakes have lasting economic and emotional impacts (Armaș et al., 2017) and can cause major structural damage, weakening or destroying buildings and infrastructure. Damage to roads, power grids, and plumbing can hinder relief efforts, and leave affected populations without necessary utilities indefinitely (Magda, 2019). The Balkan Peninsula is particularly Figure E.2: Nicolae Ceaușescu (front left), susceptible to powerful earthquakes as it sits President of Romania from 1965 to 1989, between the African, Indian, small Cimmerian, walking past the remains of a building after the and Eurasian tectonic plates (Bala et. al, 2015). 1977 earthquake in Bucharest. (Santora et. al, Throughout their history, countries within the 2020). region have experienced major earthquakes, with earthquakes occurring as recently as 2018 in Previous studies have examined how specific Romania, 2019 in Albania, and 2020 in Croatia characteristics of Bucharest contribute to its high (USGS, 2021). Within northern Romania, the earthquake vulnerability. The city’s historical and Vrancea region experiences frequent seismic outdated infrastructure is the most significant activity that produces major damaging factor. Many of Bucharest’s buildings are aging, earthquakes throughout the Balkan Peninsula with buildings constructed prior to 1940 (Bokelmann, 2014). Experts have identified accounting for over 20 percent of the city’s Bucharest, the capital of Romania, as “the most building stock as of 1992 (Lungu, 2000). earthquake prone capital in the European Union” Moreover, approximately 50% of the city’s (Armaș et al., 2017). structures originated from systematization plans during the communist regime (1947-1989), with the government strengthening few after the fall of communism to meet current standards of quality and safety (Bachman, 1989; Lungu, 2000). Corruption is an additional contributor to seismic risk to buildings in Bucharest. During the communist regime, the lack of funds for Figure E.1: The Carlton building before and construction due to the Romanian government’s after collapse from the 1940 earthquake in national policies of paying off external debts Bucharest. Georgescu and Pomonis (2012). (Mungiu-Pippidi, 2010) led to bribery and corruption within the construction industry which Two major earthquakes have hit Bucharest in yielded construction that was unnecessary, the last 100 years. On November 10th, 1940, an unsuitable, or defective, or dangerous (Sohail & earthquake originating in Vrancea county caused Cavill, 2006). Without economic incentives or one building to collapse and killed over a hundred the necessary capital, the communist government people (see Figure E.1). On March 4th, 1977, built many high-rise apartment complexes that another earthquake struck, this time causing 33 were not seismically stable (Sumbasacu, buildings to collapse and killing over 1,500 (see Interview). Figure E.2). Experts expect more than 200 This lack of funds continues to limit current buildings to collapse in the next major earthquake government analysis of buildings after (M. Sumbasacu, personal communication, April earthquakes to evaluate seismic risk. While the 22, 2021). iii government currently has marked 358 buildings purpose, the team looked to the same expert in Bucharest as at a high risk of collapse in the interviews. The team then spoke with Bucharest event of another earthquake, they have not done community and NGO leaders to identify local a comprehensive analysis of the city’s buildings. societal components at risk. The close proximity of these structures to other Finally, to achieve the third objective, the buildings due to high population and building team extracted data regarding socioeconomic density increases the potential for damage from status, ethnicity, and religion from the most collapse (Schlumbohm, 2020; Cavoli, 2017). recent (2011) census data available in Bucharest. While there exists research that considers The team organized and graphed the extracted socioeconomic factors and their impact on data using a customized software tool. However, earthquake vulnerability, there is limited research the data that the team collected was insufficient that draws links between areas of higher risk and for the team to support many correlations. Data the social identities of the people that populate regarding ethnicity and religion was incomplete, these areas. The original goal of this project was with many residents evasively answering as to evaluate the earthquake vulnerability of unknown. specific religious and ethnic groups within the Originally, the team anticipated that there city of Bucharest to determine the extent to which would be differences in vulnerability and preparedness varies across these different groups. preparedness across minority demographics The objectives to achieve this goal were as within Bucharest. However, the team was not follows: able to find data supporting some of these claims 1. To examine current earthquake from any of the methods. Instead, the team shifted preparedness practices in Bucharest and focus to examining factors that increase the Balkan Peninsula. Bucharest’s vulnerability, and current actions by 2. To establish which societal and organizations to reduce this vulnerability. infrastructural components are most at- risk in the event of an earthquake. 3. To characterize the ethnic and religious Results groups of Bucharest and evaluate the Government-Funded Earthquake Preparedness earthquake vulnerability of these groups. Measures Expert interviews and archival research Methodology revealed that the governments of Bucharest in The team proposed the following methods to Romania, Tirana and Durrës in Albania, Zagreb achieve these objectives: interviews with experts in Croatia, and the United States generally from Romania, Albania, Croatia, and the United employ many of the same preparedness. The team States, interviews with survivors of the 2019 determined this by asking experts what Albanian and 1977 Romanian earthquakes, and preparedness measures are prominent within their analysis of 2011 Bucharest census data. In total, respective countries. The measures that experts the team interviewed ten experts from Romania, identified were building codes, public education, Croatia, Albania, and the United States, and six assessment of buildings, maintenance and earthquake survivors from Romania and Albania. retrofitting of existing structures, utility shut off To achieve the first objective, the team prior to earthquakes, and early warning systems. performed archival research, interviewed experts This list is in order of the frequency with which from each country, compared preparedness experts referenced these measures in the team’s measures taken in Bucharest to other vulnerable interviews. cities, and compiled the results of these This revealed that both the United States in interviews into a chart depicting the use and general and Bucharest, Romania utilize all of efficacy of each preparedness measure. these measures. Zagreb employs all of these The team compiled the types of infrastructure measures except for an early warning system, and demographics that seismologists and which is not possible due to the proximity of the engineers in the Balkan Peninsula identified to be local fault lines to the city. Tirana and Durrës do at risk to complete objective two. For this not employ regular school drills, early warning iv systems, or electrical and gas shutoff disconnected from one another. As Georgiana mechanisms, making Albania the country with Ilie, a senior editor at the Romanian magazine the least number