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Department ofthe !~' ~ INFORMATION AND RESEARCH SERVICES Parliamentary Library -!lJJ~~~~t2&~<~l.l,.li'" Research Paper No. 9 1998-99 Federal Elections 1998 ISSN 1328-7478 ©Copyright Commonwealth ofAustralia 1999 " Except to the extent of the uses pennitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means including information storage and retrieval systems, without the prior written consent of the Department of the Parliamentary Library, other than by Senators and Members ofthe Australian Parliament in the course oftheir official duties. This paper has been prepared for general distribution to Senators and Members of the Australian Parliament. While great care is taken to ensure that the paper is accurate and balanced, the paper is written using information publicly available at the time of production. The views expressed are those of the author and should not be attributed to the Information and Research Services (IRS). Advice on legislation or legal policy issues contained in this paper is provided for use in parliamentary debate and for related parliamentary purposes. This paper is not professional legal opinion. Readers are reminded that the paper is not an official parliamentary or Australian government document. IRS staff are available to discuss the paper's contents with Senators and Members and their staff but not with members ofthe public. • Published by the Department ofthe Parliamentary Library, 1999 INFORMATION AND RESEARCH SERVICES < Research Paper No.9 1998-99 Federal Elections 1998 Scott Bennett Politics and Public Adiminstration Group Andrew Kopras and Gerard Newman Statistics Group 16 February 1999 Inquiries - The authors would like to thank Brien Hallett (Australian Electoral Commission), Bob Bennett, Marilyn Harrington, Margaret Healy, Martin Lumb, Geoff Winter, Jan Pearson and Sandra Bailey for their assistance in preparing this paper. Inquiries Further copies of this publication may be purchased from the: Publications Distribution Officer Telephone: (02) 6277 2720 Information and Research Services publications are available on the ParlInfo database. On the Internet the Department of the Parliamentary Library can be found at: http://www.aph.gov.au/library/ • A list of IRS publications may be obtained from the: IRS Publications Office Telephone: (02) 6277 2760 Contents Symbols and Abbreviations j Introduction 1 Nominations 2 Election Overview 2 House ofRepresentatives 5 Senate 6 Divisions of Interest 7 Other Electoral Highlights 9 The Passing Parade 10 Table 1 House ofRepresentatives: National Summary 14 Table 2 House ofRepresentatives: State Summary 15 Table 3 House ofRepresentatives: Regional Summary 20 Table 4 House of Representatives: Party Status Summary 22 Table 5a House of Representatives: Electoral Division Summary, Number 26 Table 5b House of Representatives: Electoral Division Summary, Per cent 30 Table 6 House of Representatives: Electoral Division Details 34 Table 7 House ofRepresentatives: Two-Party Preferred Vote, State Summary 59 Table 8 House ofRepresentatives: Two-Party Preferred Vote, Regional Summary 59 Table 9 House ofRepresentatives: Two-Party Preferred Vote, Party Status Summary 59 Table 10 House of Representatives: Two-Party Preferred Vote, Electoral Division Summary 60 Table 11 House of Representatives: Electoral Pendulum 64 Table 12 House of Representatives Election: Electoral Divisions Ranked by Two- Party Preferred Swing to ALP 65 Table 13 Senate: National Summary 66 Table 14 Senate: State Summary 67 Table 15 Senate: Composition from 1 July 1999 71 Table 16 Senate: Candidate Details 72 Table 17 Comparison of Senate and House ofRepresentatives Votes 90 Appendix 1: Electoral Division Classification 94 Appendix 2a: House ofRepresentatives Elections 1949-1998 98 Appendix 2b: Senate Elections 1949-1998 99 Federal Elections 1998 Symbols and Abbreviations ABR Australian Bill of.Rights Group ACH CTA Child Protection Party [Call to Australia] ACS Abolish Child Support/Family Court Party ALP Australian Labor Party ASP Australian Shooters Party ARP Australian Reform Party AWP Australian Women's Party CDP Christian Democratic Party CEC Citizens Electoral Council of Australia CLP Country Liberal Party DEM Australian Democrats DLP Democratic Labor Party DSL Democratic Socialist League EFF Independent EFF [Enterprise, Freedom and Family] FLR Family Law Reform Party FST Australia First Party GRN Australian Greens GWA The Greens WA HAR Senator Harradine Group IND . Independent LP Liberal Party NAN No Aircraft Noise NDP Nuclear Disarmament Party NLP Natural Law Party NP National Party OAP One Australia Party PHON Pauline Hanson's One Nation PLP Progressive Labor Party QF Queensland First RAR Reclaim Australia Reduce Immigration RPA Republican Party of Australia SEP Socialist Equity Party TFP Tasmania First Party TPS Taxi Operators Political Service UNI Unity - Say No to Hanson nil or rounded to zero * sitting Member for Division, sitting Senator # party holding or notionally holding Division i Federal Elections 1998 Introduction ,,' This paper provides a descriptive account and a comprehensive statistical analysis of the federal elections held on 3 October 1998. The paper shows summary tables for both the Senate and the House of Representatives together with the detailed results for all House of Representatives Divisions. To assist in understanding the results a brief guide to the more interesting election facts is also provided. For the House of Representatives, summary tables show the results at the State or Territory, geographic region and party status levels. The region and party status classifications are as used by the Australian Electoral Commission (see Appendix 1 for a listing of Electoral Divisions and their relevant classification). The party status of a Division is determined by the two-party preferred vote at the 1996 election adjusted for the effects of the electoral redistributions held during 1997 in Queensland, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory. Electoral Divisions are classified according to the two-party swing required for the party holding the Division to lose: 'Safe' require a swing of more than 10 per cent; 'Fairly safe' require a swing of between 6 per cent and 10 per cent; 'Marginal' require a swing of less than 6 per cent. Thus the 'Party Status' tables (Tables 4 and 9) show the results in those Divisions classified as being notionally held by the party status shown. In all tables the votes received by each party or candidate are expressed as a percentage of the formal votes, formal and informal votes are expressed as a percentage of total votes (formal plus informal votes) and turnout (total votes) as a percentage of electors enrolled. The 'swing' figures compare the votes received at the 1998 election with votes received at the 1996 election adjusted for the effects of the 1997 Redistribution if applicable. The following example provides an explanation of the layout of the summary and Electoral Division tables. 1 Federal Elections 1998 f>.UO:UUO" -"= """" ~ m v,", Swinl!1I't I~andidates contesting Division ." • in ballot paper order l~ull/ .-/'l DEM 9.5 ~ 10h""" P'"'''''' '<om 1996 Party of candidate, H~' IND '00'462 0.6 .6 election abbreviations listed In front of ~.. NLP 281 0.4 O. paper Hannon ALP 27756 31.S -0.2 y Votes as a percentage of Formal Ramsev PHON 3837 5.2 5.2 Voles Count of first preference votes Wonh' LP 32173 43.4 -4.5 ~ GRN 2518 3.4 0.6 '''m,' oed Io'"m" V""" a • indicates sitting member FinalC<lunl IA percentage of Tumout It indicates slttlng party ALP 36379 49.1 .6 (Formal plus Informal Voles) Worth • LP 377JI 50.9 -2.6 Result afterthe distribution of -----=- Turnout (Formal and Informal preferences F,_ 74110 95.S ,.,- 3458 4.5 -0.2 Voles) as a percentage of Total Voles (Formal plus Turnout 77568 94.4 EnrolJed Informal) casl Nominations Nominations for Commonwealth parliamentary elections have risen steadily since the first election of the enlarged Parliament in 1984, and 1998 continued the trend. The 148 House of Representatives contests produced 1106 nominations, an increase of 21 per cent on the 1996 figure. The average per division was 7.5 (6.1 in 1996). By comparison, there were 628 nominations (4.2 per division) in the first year of the enlarged Parliament (1984). Women represented 27 per cent ofnominations, a slight decline on 1996. There were 329 Senate nominations, an increase of 29 per cent on 1996. Of these 301 were for State Senate positions, giving an average 50 names on each State ballot paper (39 in 1996). Female nominations declined 4.2 per cent to 30.7 per cent. Of all nominations for the two houses, women represented 27.9 per cent, a decline of 1.5 per cent. Election Overview As is usual in Commonwealth elections, the 1998 election was held early, on 3 October 1998. The Prime Minister could have waited until mid-May 1999 if he had sought to allow the Parliament to run its full term. Speculation had suggested that early 1999 was a possibility, but the Prime Minister apparently judged a 1998 election best suited the government. Expectations Most observers predicted a victory for the Government. Various factors were cited to justify these predictions. 2 Federal Elections 1998 • The Government had made no fatal blunders during its two-and-a-half years since the previous election, a factor which was shown up in its relatively steady opinion poll standing-it was certainly well above the lowest figures of the ALP Government in the period between the 1993 and the 1996 elections. There seemed, in short, no compelling reason why a mass ofvoters would shift from the Governmentto the ALP. .<:' • In any case, the Government was said to be cushioned by the size of its majority of 40. With so many new members working hard to retain their seats, plus relatively few ultra­ marginal seats, and with the Coalition vote likely to be steady, it seemed unlikely that sufficient seats would fall for Labor to come to power.
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