REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ------OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ------DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL ------

ONACC-NOCC

www.onacc.cm; [email protected] ; Tel : (237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529

BULLETIN N° 50

Dekadal climate alerts and probable impacts for the period 11th to 20th July 2020

10 July 2020

© ONACC July 2020, all rights reserved

Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC).

Production Team (ONACC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, ONACC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, ONACC ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law.

I. Introduction

This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°50 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather

(American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El-Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, ONACC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro th th ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 11 to 20 July 2020. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment st th th th of the forecasts made for the dekad from 1 to 10 July 2020. This dekad from 11 to 20 July 2020 will be characterized by the action of the moisture-bearing monsoon from the South Atlantic Ocean in a south-west-north-easterly direction. In Cameroon, this monsoon will continue its action over the entire national territory, especially in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and North regions), the Guinean High Savannah zone (Adamawa region), the Forest zone with bimodal rainfall (Centre, South and East regions), the High Plateaux zone (West and North-West regions) and the Coastal zone (Littoral and South-West regions). II. FORECAST SUMMARY

II.1. For Temperatures The localities of and Ngoro, in the have a high probability of a sharp increase in average maximum temperatures compared to historic values The following localities have a high probability of a sharp decrease in minimum temperatures compared to historic values. These localities ar e: - Mokolo, Bogo, Mindif, Mora, Maroua, in the Far North Region; - Touboro, in the North Region; - Ngaoundéré, Mbakaou, Meiganga, and Banyo, in the Adamawa Region; - Lolod orf and Akom II, in the South Region; - Wum, Fundong, Kumbo, Nwa, Bali, Bamenda, Santa and Benakuma, in the Northwest Region; - , , , Bamendjing and , in the . NB1: During this period, there is a high probability of recording cold nights and mornings throughout the country.

II.2. For Precipitation A high probability of precipitation around or above the historic value and relative to the amount of precipitation recorded during the dekad of July 1st to 10th, 2020 in the following localities: - Maroua, Waza, Mora, in the Far North Region; - Dembo, Touboro, Garoua, Lagdo, Guider, Poli and Pitoa, in the North Region; - Ngaoundal, Meiganga, Banyo, Ngaoundéré, Tignère, Mbakaou, Mayo Baleo, Bankim, Tibati, in the Adamawa Region; - Moloundo u and Betaré-Oya, in the East Region; - Nyabizan, Campo and Ambam, in the South Region; - Ndop, Fundong, Benakuma, Wum, Kumbo, Bali, Santa, Batibo, Ndu, Nkambe, Nkum, Bamenda and Nwa, in the Northwest Region; - Eyumojock, Fontem, Nguti, Toko, Konye, Mundemba, Bamuso, Buea, Limbe, Muyuka, Idenau, Mamfe, Akwaya and Upper Bayang, in the Southwest Region. - Edea and , in the Littoral Region

NB2: This dekad will be marked by amounts of precipitation around the last dekad's average in the Southwest and Northwest Regions, with a very high risk of flooding, landslides or mudslides

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III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 11th to 20th July 2020

e) In the mono-modal rainfall forest zone 1) For precipitations A high probability of recording precipitation quantities; During this period we expect: st th - around the average recorded in the dekad from 1 to 10 July 2020 in Eyumojock, a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone Fontem, Nguti, Toko, Konye Mundemba, Bamuso, Buea, Limbe, Muyuka, Idenau, Mamfe, Akwaya and Upper Bayang, in the South-West Region. A high probability of recording; st th - amounts of precipitation above the value recorded in - below the average recorded in the dekad from 1 to 10 July 2020 in , the dekad from 1st to 10th July 2020 in Maroua, Waza, , , , , , Njombe, , Mbanga; , Mora, in the Far North Region; , Dizangué, Ndom, and Song Loulou, in the Littoral Region.. - Moreover, they will be far above the average for Muanko and Edéa. On the other hand, they will remain around the average in Gamboura, Mokolo, Mogodé, Makari, Kousséri, NB 4: (1) This dekad is marked by: Bogo, Bourrah and Hina and will be below average in a high probability of very high rainfall in the Northwest Region (including the Maga, Kaélé and Mindif. - precipitation amounts around the average recorded in localities of Benakuma, Wum and Fundong), the South-West Region (including st th the dekad from 1 to 10 July 2020 in Dembo, the localities of Nguti, Toko, Konye Mundemba, Bamusso and Limbé) and the

Touboro, Garoua, Lagdo, Guider, Poli and Pitoa, below Littoral Region, the West Region, with a significant risk of flooding, landslides or mudslides, the potential consequences being the destruction of plantations, the average in Rey Bouba and Tcholliré, in the North infrastructure (buildings, power poles, etc.) and homes etc.. Region.

NB 3: This dekad confirms the effectiveness of the establishment of the rainy season in the Sudano- Sahelian zone (Far North and North Regions). b) In the Guinean high savannah zone A high probability of recording above-average rainfall amounts recorded in the dekad of 1st -20th July 2020 in Ngaoundal, Meiganga, Banyo and Ngaoundere in the Adamawa Region Moreover, in the localities of Tignère, Mbakaou, Mayo Baléo, Bankim, Tibati, these amounts of precipitation will remain around the average recorded in the last dekad c) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone A high probability of recording precipitation quantities - lower than those recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th July 2020 in , , , , Monatélé, Yoko, Ngoro, , Ngambe Tikar , Nkoteng, , Eséka, , , Yaoundé, Aunda wae, and Nkol-Metet, in the Centre Region;; - below the average recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th July 2020 in Belabo, Mindourou, Batouri, Bertoua, Lomé, Garoua Boulai Abong-Mbang, Salapoumbe and Yokadouma, Ngoyla, in the East Region. However, they will remain around the average recorded at the same time in Betaré-Oya and will be above average in Moloundou; Figure 1: Variation in precipitation quantities for the current dekad as compared to what was st th - below the average recorded in the dekad from 1st to registered in the dekad from 1 to 10 July 2020 Source: ONACC, July 2020 10th July 2020 in Kribi, Jum, Lolodorf, Akom II, Sangmelima, Ebolowa and Zoétélé; around the average in Nyabizan, Campo and Ambam, in the South Region. th th . NB 5: This decade from 11 to 20 July 2020 corresponds to: d) In the high plateaux zone - prolongation of the rainy season in the Guinean High Savannah zone (Adamawa A high probability of recording precipitation quantities; Region), the High Plateaux (West and Northwest Regions), the Monomodal - around the average recorded in the dekad from 1st to Rainforest (Littoral and Southwest Regions) 10th July 2020 in Ndop, Fundong, Benakuma, Wum, - the effectiveness of the installation of the small dry season in the Bimodal rainfall Kumbo, Bali, Santa, Batibo, Ndu, Nkambe, Nkum, forest zone (Centre, South and East Regions)

Bamenda and Nwa, in the Northwest Region NB 5: During this dekad, there is a high risk of flooding, landslides, mudslides - below the average recorded in the dekad from 1st to due to heavy rains and soil saturation in the Littoral, Northwest, West, 10th July 2020 in Dschang, Bazou, Mbouda, Bafang, Southwest, North and Far North regions. , , , Bazou, Tonga, Bangangté, , and Makam, in the West Region 3 2) For Temperatures a) For Maximum Temperatures : Based on the historical average of the maximum average temperatures recorded during this dekad over the period 1979 to 2018, including 32.43°C in the Far North Region; 31°C in the North Region; 28.6°C in the Adamawa Region; 27°C in the Centre Region; 27.11°C in the South Region; 27,18°C in the East Region; 24.6°C in the West Region; 25.38°C in the Northwest Region; 25.82°C in the South-West Region and 25°C in the Littoral Region, during this period there is a high probability of recording average maximum temperatures

- -Below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Kaélé, Maroua, Mindif and Yagoua; around the average in Bogo, Kousseri, Makari, Mokolo, Maga, Waza and Mora, in the - below the historic value recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Furu Awa and Fungom, Wum, Tinto, Ako, Far North Region; Ndop, Bali, Kumbo, Ndu, Munkep, Benakuma and Nwa, in the Northwest Region - around the historic value recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Garoua and Pitoa; around the average in - around the historic value recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Foumban, Mbouda, Tonga, Njimom, Dembo, Guider, Lagdo, Rey Bouba, Tcholliré, Poli and Touboro, in the North Region;- Malantouen, , , Massagam, Foumbot; below average in Dschang, Penka Michel, Fokoué, - below the historic value recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Ngaoundal, Meiganga, Ngaoundéré and , , Nkongni, Bazou, Bafoussam, and Bangangue; in the West Region; Tignère; around the historical average in Banyo; above the historic value in Tibati, in the - around the historic value recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mundemba, Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Ekondo Adamawa Region -; Titi, Bamusso, Limbe, Tiko, Nguti, Idenau, Fontem, Buea, Kumba, Ekok, Upper Bayang and Wabane; - above the historic value recorded in the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Nkoteng and Ngoro; lower than the historic value in Eyumojock and Mamfe, in the South-West Region; below average in Eseka; around the average in Bafia Yoko, Yaoundé, Obala, Monatélé, - around the historic value recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Melong, Ngambè, Manjo, Loum, Ndom, , , Mbalmayo, and in the Centre Region; - around the historic value recorded in the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Mindourou, Lomé, Yingui, Nyanon, Pouma, Dizangué, Mouanko, Douala, Bare-Bakem, Yabassi, , Bélabo, Bertoua, Batouri, Ngoyla, Abong-Mbang and Mintom; below average in Moloundou, Dibombari and Edéa; above average in Penja and Mbanga, in the Littoral Region Garoua-Boulai and Bétaré-Oya; in the East Region; - Around the historic value recorded in the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Akom II, Ebolowa, Campo, Lolodorf, Sangmelima; below average in Kribi, Zoétélé, Nyabizan, Djoum and Ambam, in the South Region;

Figure 2: Variations in average maximum temperatures for (a) the current dekad (b) compared to those registered for the (b) same period from 1979 to 2018; (a) (Source: ONACC, July 2020)

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Based on the difference between the average maximum temperatures recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th July 2020 and the maximum temperatures expected for the dekad from 11th to 20th July 2020, there is a high probability of recording average maximum temperatures::

- below the average recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th July 2020 in Kribi, Ebolowa, st th - below the average recorded in the dekad from 1 to 10 July 2020 in Mindif, Kaélé, Sangmelima, Zoélé Lolodorf, Nyabizan, Djoum, Ambam, Campo, Akom II, Ma’an, Maroua, Waza, Maga, Yagoua, Mora, Mokolo and Bogo, around the average in Kousseri, Nyete and Mvangan, in the South Region; in the Far North Region; - below the average recorded at the dekad from 21st to 30th June 2020 in Mamfe, st th - below the average recorded in the dekad from 1 to 10 July 2020 in Rey-Bouba, Garoua, Mundemba, Fontem, Kumba, Buea Muyuka, Limbé, Tiko, Idenau, Eyumojock and Dembo, Guider, Lagdo, Pitoa, Tcholliré, Touboro, Poli, in the North Region; Konye; around the average in Nguti, in the South-West Region; st th - below the average recorded in the dekad from 1 to 10 July 2020 in Ngaoundéré, Tibati, - below the average recorded from 21st to 30th June 2020 in Dizangué, Mouanko, Banyo, Tignère, Ngaoundal, Meiganga, in the Adamawa Region; Melong, Yabassi, Nkongsamba, Bare-Bakem, Loum, Manjo, Douala, Ngambè, Ndom, st th - below the average recorded in the dekad from 1 to 10 July 2020 in Mindourou, Garoua- Edéa, Yingui, Nyanon and Pouma, in the Littoral Region;

Boulai, Yokadouma, Bélabo, Moloundou, Abong-Mbang, Batouri, Bertoua, Ngoyla, Lomé - around the average recorded from 1st to 10th July 2020 in Bali, Kumbo, Tinto, and Bétaré-Oya, in the East Region; Munkep, Bamenda, Santa, Benakuma and Wum, in the Northwest Region; st th - below the average recorded in the dekad from 1 to 10 July 2020 in Bafia - below the average recorded from 1st to 10th July 2020 in Foumban, Mbouda, Tonga,

Akonolinga, Nanga Eboko, Yoko, Ngoro, Monatélé, Yaoundé, Obala, Mbalmayo, Njimom, Malantouen, Koutaba, Magba, Massagam, Foumbot; around the average in Yaoundé, Nkoteng, Deuk, Mbandjock, Eseka and Messondo, in the Centre Bafoussam, , Batcham, Bafang, Bangangté, Dschang, Bazou, and Makam in Region; the West Region.

Figure 3: Variations in average maximum temperatures forecast for the dekad from June 11 to 20 july, 2020 (b) compared to those recorded in the dekd of 1-10,july 2020 (a). Source: ONACC, July 2020

(a) (b)

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Alerts for maximum temperatures

During this dekad from July 11 to 20, 2020, special attention will be paid to certain localities in the Centre

Region, which have a very high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures, compared to their historic values recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018. These

localities include Nkoteng and Ngoro

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a) For Minimum Temperatures Based on the historic value of the minimum temperatures recorded from 1979 to 2018, including 23.6°C in the Far North Region; 23°C in the North Region; 20,2°C in the Adamaoua Region; 19°C in the Centre Region; 20.7°C in the South Region; 19.6°C in the East Region, 16.2°C in the West Region; 16.4°C in the Northwest Region; 20.4°C in the South-West Region and 19.7°C in the Littoral Region, there is a high probability of low temperatures : - around the historic value recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Waza, Yagoua, Kousseri, Kaélé, - above the historic value recorded in the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Monatélé, Mbalmayo, Mindif, kousseri, Maroua and Yagoua; lower than the historic value recorded at the same Yaoundé, Eseka, Nkoteng, Nanga Eboko, , Bafia, Obala, and Yoko; around the historic value period in Bogo, Mokolo, Mora, in the Far North Region; recorded at the same period in Ngoro in the Centre Region; - around the historic value recorded in the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Garoua, - around the historic value of the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Dschang, Bafang, Bazou, and Pitoa, Lagdo, Tcholliré, Guider, Poli and Rey Bouba; below the historic value recorded Bamendjing; above the average recorded at the same period in Mbouda, Bagangté, Bafoussam, in the same period in Touboro; in the North Region; Foumban, Foumbot, Magba and Tonga, in the West Region; - below the historic value recorded in the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Tignère, - around the historic value recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Fundong, Wum Bamenda, Nwa, Bali, Ngaoundéré, Meiganga, Mbe, Meiganga; above the historic value recorded at the same Kumbo, Santa and widekum; below average in Benakuma, in the’ North West Region period in Tibati, Mbakaou, Banyo, Adamawa Region; - above the historic value recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Buea, Tiko, Eyumojock, Muyuka, Kumba, Bamusso, Idenau, Limbé, Mundemba, and Mamfe; around the average during the same period in - around the historic value recorded in the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Betare Oya Nguiti and Fontem, in the South-West Region. and Garoua-Boulai; above the historical average recorded at the same period in -above the historic value recorded in the same period from 1979-2018 in Dizangué, Edéa, Mouanko, Moloundou, Belabo, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Mindourou, Lomé, Batouri, Ngoyla and Mbanga, Douala, Nkongsamba, Yabassi, Melong, Manjo, Loum and Pendja, in the Littoral Region. Yokadouma in the East Region - above the historic value recorded in the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Jum, Kribi, Campo, Sangmelima, Zoétélé, Nyabizan, Ebolowa, Lolodorf and Akom II, in the South Region;;

Figure 4: Variations in average minimum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those registered for the same period from 1979 to 2018; (a) (Source: ONACC, July 2020) (b) (a)

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Based on the difference between the average minimum temperatures recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th July 2020 and the average minimum temperatures expected for the dekad from 11 to 21 July 2020, there is a high probability of recording average minimum temperatures

- around the average recorded from 1 to 10 July 2020 in Kaélé, Mindif, Maga, Yagoua, Bogo, - above the value recorded from 21 to 30 June 2020 in Nyabisan, Ebolowa, Zoetélé, Kribi, Djoum, Kousseri, Mora, Maroua, Waza and Mokolo, in the Far North Region -; Campo and Ambam, Sangmelima; around the average in Lolodorf and Akom II, in the South - around the value recorded from 1 to 10 July 2020 in Pitoa, Lagdo, Tchollire, Garoua, Region; Mandingrin, Touboro and Rey Bouba; above the average recorded at the same time period in - - around the value recorded from 1 to 10 July 2020 in Douala, Loum, Melong Manjo, Mbanga, Poli, North Region; Mouanko, Mouanko, Yabassi, Nkongsamba, Edéa, Dizangué and Pendja; in the Littoral Region;; - around the value recorded from 1 to 10 July 2020 in Tibati, Mbakaou, Banyo, Meiganga, - around the value recorded from 1 to 10 July 2020 in Mbouda, Bamendjou, Bamendjing, Bafang, Tignère and Ngaoundéré, in the Adamawa Region; Dschang and Bazou;Figure above 4: Variations the average in recorded average at minimum the same period temperatures in Bafoussam, for the Tonga, - around the value recorded in the dekad from 1 to 10 July 2020 in, Mbandjock, Akonolinga, Bangangté, Foumbancurrent and Magba, dekad (b)in the compared West Region to historical averages from 1979 to Ngoro, Nanga Eboko, Yaoundé, Yoko and Monatélé; around the average recorded at the same - around the value recorded from 1 to 10 July 2020 in Santa, Bali, Benakuma, Wum, Nwa, Batibo, 2018 for the same period. period in Nkoteng, Mbalmayo, Eséka and Obala in the Centre Region; Bamenda, Fundong, Kumbo, and Widikum, in the Northwest Region; - around the value recorded in the period from 1 to 10 July 2020 in Abong-Mbang, Bertoua, - around the value recorded from 1 to 10 July 2020 in Guti, Source: Buea, ONACC, Tiko, Kumba, June 20 20 Mamfe, Batouri, Yokadouma, Lomé, Belabo, Mindourou, Batouri, Ngoyla, Yokadouma and Moloundou; Eyumojock, Mundemba, Idenau, Dikome Balue, Bamusso and Muyuka, in the South-West Region

bove the average recorded at the same period in Garoua-Boulai and Betaré Oya, in the East Region ;

Figure 5: Variation in minimum temperatures forecast for the dekad from 11 to 20 July 2020 (b) compared to those recorded at (b) (a) the dekad of 1 to 10 July 2020 (a). Source : ONACC, June 2020

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Alerts for minimum temperatures

During this dekad from July 11 to 20, 2020, special attention will be paid to localities with a very high probability of experiencing a decrease in average minimum temperatures, compared to their historic values, which could also lead to cold nights and mornings. These localities include:

- Mokolo, Bogo, Mindif, Mora, Maroua, in the Far North Region; - Touboro, in the North Region; - Ngaoundéré, Mbakaou, Meiganga, and Banyo, in the Adamawa Region;

- Lolodorf and Akom II, in the South Region;

- Wum, Fundong, Kumbo, Nwa, Bali, Bamenda, Santa and Benakuma, in the North-West Region;

- Dschang, Bazou, Mbouda, Bamendjing and Bafang, in the West Region.

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IV. Risks and alerts on socio-economic sectors a) In the agricultural sector: d) In the water and energy sector: A high risk of recording cases of: - a high risk of the destruction of equipment and materials for the production and transport - destruction of crop fields such as banana plantations, maize fields, fruit tree of electricity (poles, transformers, etc.), as a result of intense rains accompanied by strong plantations etc., in the North-West, South-West, West, Adamawa and Littoral winds and thunderstorms, as well as lightning in the Centre, Adamawa, East, South, regions fields of millet, corn, peanut, cotton in the North and Far North regions, North-West, South-West, West, Littoral, North and Far North; Regions following heavy rains accompanied by strong winds and thunderstorms -risk of contamination of water catchment areas by polluted runoff in the Centre, - degradation of stocks or reserves of agricultural products, as well as other Adamawa, East, South, Northwest, Southwest, West, Littoral, North and Far North speculations maturing but not yet harvested (corn, peanut, bean etc.), due to high Regions humidity in the North-West, Southwest, West, Centre, South, East, Adamawa, Littoral or Heavy Rains Regions, in the North and Far North Regions; e) In the Public Works sector: - tuber and root rot in the soil due to waterlogging in the North-West, South-West, high risk of recording cases of:

West and Littoral regions. -roadway degradation in the Centre, Adamawa, East, South, North-West, Southwest, West - increased weed proliferation and diseases as a result of continuous rainfall in and Littoral, North and Far North regions, as a result of heavy rains coupled with the many localities in the Centre, East, South, North-West, South-West, West obstruction of waste disposal channels; Adamaw a, Littoral, North and Far North regions -Destruction of bridges and culverts in some communities in the Northwest, West, - flooding of crops in low lying areas of the Northwest, Southwest, West, Littoral, Southwest, Centre, South, Littoral, North and Far North regions as a result of heavy rains. North and Far North regions, due to high amounts of rainfall; f) In the environment and biodiversity sector: b) In the health sector: A high risk of: A risk of recording cases of: - landslides and mudslides as a result of heavy rains and waterlogging in the Littoral, -increase in cholera cases in many localities and large settlements in the Sudano- Northwest, West and Southwest Regions and fragile ecological areas in the Centre Sahelian zone and monodal rainforest zone as a result of polluted runoff and flooding; Region; - an increase in cases of other water-borne diseases (yeasts, amoebiasis, dysentery, - flooding in the coastal area, particularly in the localities of Limbe, Tiko, Buea, in the etc.), due to the poor quality of drinking water, in the 05 Agro-ecological zones and South-West Region; Douala, Yabassi and Mouanko, in the Littoral Region, in the North especially in precarious areas and large urban areas; Regions (Garoua) and in the Far North (Maroua, Maga etc.). - an upsurge in cases of respiratory diseases (flu, cough, bronchitis, colds, asthma attacks, etc.), in most localities in the 05 Agro-ecological Zones g) For the urban Development sector: - an exacerbation of general pathologies, in adults, people suffering from obesity, A high risk of registering cases of: hypertension, systemic disorders in children, women in menopause, people - Destruction of public buildings, following heavy rains accompanied by strong winds in suffering from diabetes, in most localities of the country during this period. the major settlements of the Adamawa, North-West, Southwest, West, Littoral, North and Far North regions c) In the livestock sector: -Landslides and mudslides, due to waterlogging in many localities in the Northwest, West,

- There is a high risk of many cases of epizootic diseases, due to a sharp decrease in Southwest, Littoral Regions; minimum temperatures in some locations in the Adamawa, West, Northwest, Flooding in some settlements housing flood-like and anarchically developed areas, Southwest, North and Far North Regions. especially in the South-West Regions (Limbé etc...) and the Littoral (Douala, Yabassi etc...).

10 st th VI. Assessment of climate predictions for the decade from 21 to 30 June 2020

Guinea High Monomodal Rainfall Agro Ecological zones Sudano-Sahelian Bimodal Rainfall forest High plateau Savannah Forest Regions Far North North Adamawa East Centre South West Nord West South West Littoral

Minimum temperatures

Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 23,6 23 20,2 19,6 19 20,7 16,2 16,4 20,4 19,7

Trend forecasts

Success rates of Forecasts (%) 91 96,6 97,4 92 98,3 97,9 96,1 96,7 97,2 98

Maximum temperatures

Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 33,36 31,71 29,10 28,10 27,53 27,30 24,73 25,41 25,99 25,62

Trend forecasts

Forecasts success rates (%) 81,5 75 80 83 82,1 78,6 82,2 80 78,2 83,4

Precipitations 234- Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(mm) 23-53 54-85 86-176 177-179 180-202 203-234 241 203-238 233-262 182-204

Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈

Forecasts success rates (%) 77 91 98 100 100 100 98,6 100 100 100

≈ = Around the mean; = Reduction; = Increase

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VII. Some recommendations

It is recommended within this period to: a) In the agricultural sector - Continue to sow and/or maintain suitable crops in the different areas according to the 2020 agricultural calendar proposed by ONACC for the current agricultural season. -The early harvesting of certain crops such as maize, roots and tubers according to agricultural schedules in the south regions of the country.

b) In the health sector - raise public awareness to strictly respect basic hygiene and sanitation rules (wash hands regularly, wash food items, filter drinking water before consumption in households, use latrines, avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings, the population is strongly encouraged to drink warm water, etc.); - Avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of homes; - dress warmly and put on sleeping gears in localities experiencing cold nights during this period; - encourage the population to sleep under mosquito nets; - Strengthen community surveillance at the level of rural health centres to ensure rapid investigation and speedy management of suspicious cases of cholera and their care.

c) In the livestock sector - organise vaccination campaigns for small and big livestock as well as poultry to prevent epizootic diseases in the five agro-ecological zones

For more information, contact: P.O. Box 35414 Building no 1220, Street no 1793, Bastos, Yaounde, Cameroon Tel. (237)693 370 504 /(237)222 209 500 E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] Website: www.onacc.cm

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