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Dekadal Climate Alerts and Probable Impacts for the Period 11Th to 20Th July 2020

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Dekadal Climate Alerts and Probable Impacts for the Period 11Th to 20Th July 2020 REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ----------- ----------- OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ----------------- ----------------- DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL ----------------- ----------------- ONACC-NOCC www.onacc.cm; [email protected] ; Tel : (237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529 BULLETIN N° 50 Dekadal climate alerts and probable impacts for the period 11th to 20th July 2020 10 July 2020 © ONACC July 2020, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC). Production Team (ONACC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, ONACC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, ONACC ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law. I. Introduction This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°50 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El-Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, ONACC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro th th ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 11 to 20 July 2020. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment st th th th of the forecasts made for the dekad from 1 to 10 July 2020. This dekad from 11 to 20 July 2020 will be characterized by the action of the moisture-bearing monsoon from the South Atlantic Ocean in a south-west-north-easterly direction. In Cameroon, this monsoon will continue its action over the entire national territory, especially in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and North regions), the Guinean High Savannah zone (Adamawa region), the Forest zone with bimodal rainfall (Centre, South and East regions), the High Plateaux zone (West and North-West regions) and the Coastal zone (Littoral and South-West regions). II. FORECAST SUMMARY II.1. For Temperatures The localities of Nkoteng and Ngoro, in the Centre Region have a high probability of a sharp increase in average maximum temperatures compared to historic values The following localities have a high probability of a sharp decrease in minimum temperatures compared to historic values. These localities ar e: - Mokolo, Bogo, Mindif, Mora, Maroua, in the Far North Region; - Touboro, in the North Region; - Ngaoundéré, Mbakaou, Meiganga, and Banyo, in the Adamawa Region; - Lolod orf and Akom II, in the South Region; - Wum, Fundong, Kumbo, Nwa, Bali, Bamenda, Santa and Benakuma, in the Northwest Region; - Dschang, Bazou, Mbouda, Bamendjing and Bafang, in the West Region. NB1: During this period, there is a high probability of recording cold nights and mornings throughout the country. II.2. For Precipitation A high probability of precipitation around or above the historic value and relative to the amount of precipitation recorded during the dekad of July 1st to 10th, 2020 in the following localities: - Maroua, Waza, Mora, in the Far North Region; - Dembo, Touboro, Garoua, Lagdo, Guider, Poli and Pitoa, in the North Region; - Ngaoundal, Meiganga, Banyo, Ngaoundéré, Tignère, Mbakaou, Mayo Baleo, Bankim, Tibati, in the Adamawa Region; - Moloundo u and Betaré-Oya, in the East Region; - Nyabizan, Campo and Ambam, in the South Region; - Ndop, Fundong, Benakuma, Wum, Kumbo, Bali, Santa, Batibo, Ndu, Nkambe, Nkum, Bamenda and Nwa, in the Northwest Region; - Eyumojock, Fontem, Nguti, Toko, Konye, Mundemba, Bamuso, Buea, Limbe, Muyuka, Idenau, Mamfe, Akwaya and Upper Bayang, in the Southwest Region. - Edea and Mouanko, in the Littoral Region NB2: This dekad will be marked by amounts of precipitation around the last dekad's average in the Southwest and Northwest Regions, with a very high risk of flooding, landslides or mudslides 2 III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 11th to 20th July 2020 e) In the mono-modal rainfall forest zone 1) For precipitations A high probability of recording precipitation quantities; During this period we expect: - around the average recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th July 2020 in Eyumojock, a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone Fontem, Nguti, Toko, Konye Mundemba, Bamuso, Buea, Limbe, Muyuka, Idenau, Mamfe, Akwaya and Upper Bayang, in the South-West Region. A high probability of recording; st th - amounts of precipitation above the value recorded in - below the average recorded in the dekad from 1 to 10 July 2020 in Douala, the dekad from 1st to 10th July 2020 in Maroua, Waza, Pouma, Yabassi, Dibamba, Dibombari, Yingui, Njombe, Penja, Mbanga; Manjo, Mora, in the Far North Region; Ngambe, Dizangué, Ndom, Nyanon and Song Loulou, in the Littoral Region.. - Moreover, they will be far above the average for Muanko and Edéa. On the other hand, they will remain around the average in Gamboura, Mokolo, Mogodé, Makari, Kousséri, NB 4: (1) This dekad is marked by: Bogo, Bourrah and Hina and will be below average in a high probability of very high rainfall in the Northwest Region (including the Maga, Kaélé and Mindif. - precipitation amounts around the average recorded in localities of Benakuma, Wum and Fundong), the South-West Region (including st th the dekad from 1 to 10 July 2020 in Dembo, the localities of Nguti, Toko, Konye Mundemba, Bamusso and Limbé) and the Touboro, Garoua, Lagdo, Guider, Poli and Pitoa, below Littoral Region, the West Region, with a significant risk of flooding, landslides or mudslides, the potential consequences being the destruction of plantations, the average in Rey Bouba and Tcholliré, in the North infrastructure (buildings, power poles, etc.) and homes etc.. Region. NB 3: This dekad confirms the effectiveness of the establishment of the rainy season in the Sudano- Sahelian zone (Far North and North Regions). b) In the Guinean high savannah zone A high probability of recording above-average rainfall amounts recorded in the dekad of 1st -20th July 2020 in Ngaoundal, Meiganga, Banyo and Ngaoundere in the Adamawa Region Moreover, in the localities of Tignère, Mbakaou, Mayo Baléo, Bankim, Tibati, these amounts of precipitation will remain around the average recorded in the last dekad c) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone A high probability of recording precipitation quantities - lower than those recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th July 2020 in Ngomedzap, Messondo, Bondjock, Biyouha, Monatélé, Yoko, Ngoro, Deuk, Ngambe Tikar Bafia, Nkoteng, Ntui, Akono Eséka, Mbalmayo, Obala, Yaoundé, Aunda wae, Endom and Nkol-Metet, in the Centre Region;; - below the average recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th July 2020 in Belabo, Mindourou, Batouri, Bertoua, Lomé, Garoua Boulai Abong-Mbang, Salapoumbe and Yokadouma, Ngoyla, in the East Region. However, they will remain around the average recorded at the same time in Betaré-Oya and will be above average in Moloundou; Figure 1: Variation in precipitation quantities for the current dekad as compared to what was st th - below the average recorded in the dekad from 1st to registered in the dekad from 1 to 10 July 2020 Source: ONACC, July 2020 10th July 2020 in Kribi, Jum, Lolodorf, Akom II, Sangmelima, Ebolowa and Zoétélé; around the average in Nyabizan, Campo and Ambam, in the South Region. th th . NB 5: This decade from 11 to 20 July 2020 corresponds to: d) In the high plateaux zone - prolongation of the rainy season in the Guinean High Savannah zone (Adamawa A high probability of recording precipitation quantities; Region), the High Plateaux (West and Northwest Regions), the Monomodal - around the average recorded in the dekad from 1st to Rainforest (Littoral and Southwest Regions) 10th July 2020 in Ndop, Fundong, Benakuma, Wum, - the effectiveness of the installation of the small dry season in the Bimodal rainfall Kumbo, Bali, Santa, Batibo, Ndu, Nkambe, Nkum, forest zone (Centre, South and East Regions) Bamenda and Nwa, in the Northwest Region NB 5: During this dekad, there is a high risk of flooding, landslides, mudslides - below the average recorded in the dekad from 1st to due to heavy rains and soil saturation in the Littoral,
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