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Steady Operation and Clear Blueprint, Maintain “Buy”

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Steady Operation and Clear Blueprint, Maintain “Buy” 股 票 研 [Table_Title] Company Report: China Merchants Port (00144 HK) Spencer Fan 范明 究 (86755) 2397 6686 Equity Research 公司报告： 招商局港口 (00144 HK) [email protected] 13 October 2017 Steady[Table_Summary Operation] and Clear Blueprint, Maintain “Buy” 主业稳健，蓝图清晰，维持“买入” 1H17 results stable. Revenue rose 5.4% YoY to HK$4,055 mn, in line with [Table_Rank] expectations, mainly due to increased contribution from CIMC. Shareholders’ Rating: Buy Maintained profit surged 86.3% YoY to HK$3,148 mn, exceeding expectations, mainly 公 due to the HK$813 mn disposal gain from CIMC. Port operations remained 评级： 买入 (维持) 司 stable. 报 CMP’s horizontal competition case was expected to be solved within 3 6[Table_Price]-18m TP 目标价 : HK$27.20 告 years. In late August 2017, CMP entrusted SCW to handle Mega SCT in Revised from 原目标价: HK$27.20 Shekou, Shenzhen. We expect CMP to gradually consolidate its western Company Report Shenzhen homebase assets amid China’s upcoming wave of port Share price 股价： HK$23.600 consolidation. CMP’s Shenzhen division will also benefit from economic growth of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area. CMP continued its expansion both domestically and internationally. In Stock performance Brazil, CMP acquired a 90% share in its second largest port, TCP, for R$2.89 股价表现 bn (HK$7,228 mn). TCP’s operations cover 45% of Brazil’s population and [Table_QuotePic] 35.0 % of return 48% GDP. Domestically, CMP plans to acquire 51% of Zhongshan Port 30.0 Group for RMB484.5 mn, implying a 12.5x 2016 PER and 2.0 x 2016 PBR. 25.0 20.0 Reiterate “Buy” rating and maintain TP at HK$27.20. By August 2017, the 15.0 fundamentals of CMP’s operations in key ports were stable, benefitting from 10.0 证 China’s trade recovery. We believe in CMP’s and the parent company CMG’s 5.0 券 告 0.0 corporate governance and execution capability in the consolidation process. (5.0) 研 报 As the leader in the Chinese port industry, CMP’s current valuation remains (10.0) attractive. Our TP represents 16.4x, 16.2x and 15.4x 2017-2019 PER. (15.0) 究 究 Oct/16 Jan/17 Apr/17 Jul/17 Oct/17 2017 年上半年经营稳定。收入同比升 5.4%至 40.55 亿港元，符合预期，受益于中集集团 报 研 的贡献。股东净利同比涨 86.3%至 31.48 亿港元，好于预期，受益于处置中集集团股权的 HSI CHINA MERCHANTS PORT HDLGS 告 8.13 亿港元收益。港口业务经营稳定。 券 Equity Research Report 招商局港口预计在 3 年内解决深圳西部母港的同业竞争。2017 年 8 月末，公司已与深赤 Change[Table_PriceChange] in Share Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y 证 湾 A 签署并授权深赤湾管辖公司于深圳蛇口的妈湾港。我们预计在国内港口整合浪潮启动 股价变动 1 个月 3 个月 1 年 的大背景下，公司将逐步地整合其深圳西部母港片区资源。公司于深圳片区的主业也将受 [Tab Abs. % (2.9) 13.7 14.8 益于粤港澳大湾区的经济增长。 绝对变动 % le_I Rel. % to HS Index (4.7) 4.5 (6.8) 公司在国内及海外继续扩张。在巴西，公司以 28.9 亿雷亚尔(约合 72.28 亿港元)收购了该 相对恒指变动 % nfo1 国第二大港口 TCP90%的权益，TCP 覆盖的腹地涵盖巴西 45%的人口以及 48%的 GDP。 Avg. share price(HK$) 24.2 23.3 20.4 港 在国内，招商局港口计划以人民币 4.85 亿元收购中山港 51%的股权，分别对应 12.5 倍的 平均股价（港元） ] Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. 口 2016 年市盈率和 2.0 倍 2016 年市净率。 行 重申“买入”评级并维持 27.20 港元目标价。截至 2017 年 8 月，受益于国内进出口贸易的 业 复苏，公司核心港区的经营基本面均保持稳健。同时，我们相信招商局港口及母公司招商 Ports Sector 局集团在资源整合中的公司治理和执行力。作为国内港口行业龙头，公司目前估值水平仍 旧吸引。我们的目标价对应 16.4 倍、16.2 倍及 15.4 倍的 2017-2019 年市盈率。 Y[Table_ear End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE 年结Profit] 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 [Tab 12/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ m) (HK$) (△ %) (x) (HK$) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) le_I 2015A 8,233 4,808 1.551 (4.5) 15.2 22.203 1.1 0.644 2.7 7.1 nfo2 2016A 7,976 5,494 1.756 13.2 13.4 21.063 1.1 0.729 3.1 8.2 中] 2017F 8,458 5,266 1.660 (5.5) 14.2 21.891 1.1 2.039 8.6 7.8 招 外 2018F 8,818 5,316 1.676 1.0 14.1 23.111 1.0 0.708 3.0 7.5 商 2019F 9,020 5,589 1.762 5.1 13.4 24.393 1.0 0.735 3.1 7.4 运 局 [Table_BaseData]Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 3,172.1 Major shareholder 大股东 China Merchants Group 62.0% 输 港 Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 74,861.6 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 38.0 口 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 5,749.1 FY17 Net gearing (%) FY17 净负债/股东资金 (%) 32.3 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 27.400 / 18.800 FY17 Est. NAV (HK$) FY17 每股估值（港元） 36.0 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. China Merchants Port (00144 HK) China Port Merchants (00144 See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 7 [Table_PageHeader]China Merchants Port (00144 HK) China Merchants Port’s (“CMP” or “the Company”) 1H17 results were overall stable. Revenue rose 5.4% to HK$4,055 mn, in line with the market consensus and our projection. The increase in revenue was mainly] due1 r to thea M increasedt h g i contributionR _ e l fromb a T [ China International Marine Containers (“CIMC”, 000039 SZ/02039 HK), which indirectly benefited from recoveries in global trade. 1H17 shareholders’ profit surged 86.3% to HK$3,148 mn, exceeding market consensus and our expectation. The 86.3% YoY improvement was better than CMP’s 50% YoY profit growth guidance in July 2017. The profit increase was mainly attributable to the HK$813 mn disposal gain from CMIC. Excluding CIMC's impact, CMP's 1H17 profit from core port operations amounted to HK$2,453 mn, up 18.7% YoY. To celebrate its 25th listing anniversary on the HKEx, CMP announced a special interim dividend of HK$135 cents. Not including the special dividend, CMP’s interim dividend (HK$22 cents) represented a payout ratio of 22.2%, in 13 October 2017 line with our expectation. During 1H17, CMP handled total container throughput of 50.16 mn TEU, up 8.9% YoY. Among which, mainland ports contributed 37.88 mn TEU, up 9.9% YoY. Container throughput handled by CMP’s overseas ports was 8.54 mn TEU, remaining at the same level recorded in 1H16. Bulk cargo volume increased 14.6% YoY to 249 mn tons, in line with our expectation. Figure-1: Western Shenzhen Throughput and YoY Figure-2: CMP’s Greater China Division Throughput and Change YoY Change (SIPG not included) Western Shenzhen's rest throughput 000' CKRTT Hong Kong % Ningbo-Daxie CKRTT YoY/% % 000' SCW TEU TEU CMPS & Haixing HK YoY/% Ningbo-Daxie YoY/% Western Shenzhen rest's YoY/% 3,500 30% SCW YoY/% 7,500 30% ] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e 20%l b a T [ CMPS & Haixing YoY/% 3,000 6,500 10% 20% 2,500 5,500 0% 10% 2,000 4,500 -10% 3,500 0% 1,500 -20% 2,500 1,000 -10% -30% 1,500 -20% 500 -40% 500 0 -50% -500 -30% 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16 2H16 1H17 Aug 17 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16 2H16 1H17 Aug 17 YTD YTD Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. (00144 HK) Figure-4: CMP’s Company-wide Total Throughput and YoY Figure-3: CMP’s Overseas Throughput and YoY Change Change 招商局港口 000' Taiwan Kaohsiung Kaoming Columbo - CICT 000' % Total Throughput Throughput's YoY % TEU Nigeria - Lagos Djibouti - Djibouti City TEU Taiwan YoY/% CICT YoY/% 70,000 68,091 25% Nigeria YoY/% Djibouti YoY/% 1,500 40% 60,000 50,155 20% 30% 49,607 50,000 45,884 41,891 39,251 41,589 41,133 1,000 20% 40,000 15% China Merchants Port 10% 30,000 10% 500 0% 20,000 5% 10,000 -10% 0 0% 0 -20% 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16 2H16 1H17 Aug 17 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16 2H16 1H17 Aug 17 YTD YTD Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. While the market is concerned about CMP’s horizontal competition with Shenzhen Chiwan Wharf (“SCW”, 000022 SZ), we expect the Company to finish consolidation within 3 years. Currently, CMP holds 67% equity in SCW, and the case constitutes horizontal competition regarding natural port operations in Qianhai-Shekou Free Trade Zone, Shenzhen. On August 23, 2017, CMP and SCW entered into an entrustment agreement. Regarding CMP's home base resources, CMP entrusted SCW to exercise certain shareholder rights over CMP’s 80% interest in Mega SCT. Accordingly, the entrustment agreement would stay valid for 3 years. Mega SCT majors in container loading/unloading operations in berths 1 to 9 in the Mawan port zone of Shekou district. During the analyst conference on August 31, 2017, CMP’s management promised to solve this case within 3 years. In our Report opinion, we expect CMP to gradually consolidate its assets in its western Shenzhen home base amid an upcoming wave of state-owned enterprise (“SOE”) consolidation. Actually, China’s port industry had been undergoing a new wave of consolidation/reshuffling starting 2017 (refer to Table-1). CMP’s parent company, China Merchants Group (“CMG”), had been Company designated to handle port consolidations in Liaoning Province (Dalian, Yingkou and Jinzhou) in June 2017. Normally, the port industry in Shenzhen is divided into eastern and western areas. The eastern port zone belongs to Yantian Port Group (000088 See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 7 [Table_PageHeader]China Merchants Port (00144 HK) SZ), and the western port zone belongs to CMP and its subsidiary SCW.
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