The Romantic Zeitgeist in Post-Cold War International Relations and the Disintegration of Yugoslavia by S. M. Milovac-Carolina PhD Department of International Relations London School of Economics and Political Science University of London 2006 1 UMI Number: U210709 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Dissertation Publishing UMI U210709 Published by ProQuest LLC 2014. Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 Declaration I declare that the work presented in this thesis is my own. S. M. Milovac-Carolina 2 \ \ %'b \4o Abstract The post-Cold War 1990s were pervaded by a popular sense of pessimism and decline. The thesis argues that such sentiments were part of a general mood in international relations towards Romanticism. It examines how this Romantic sensibility affected interpretations of conflict in Yugoslavia, outlines Romantic predictions about post-Cold War conflict, and compares the Romantic view with a structural perspective of Yugoslavia’s demise. The thesis uses a variety of methods, including a philosophical exploration of Romanticism in the nineteenth century and the 1990s, a literary analysis of key texts on conflict, an empirical investigation of armed conflict data, and a theoretical treatment of structural factors in conflict. The thesis historicises nineteenth-century Romanticism as a reaction to the uncertainties created by three transformations: political revolution in France, Industrial Revolution in Britain, and cultural revolution in Germany. It then examines Romanticism through five themes—anti-rationalism, pessimism, nostalgia, relativism, and nature. It compares the 1990s and its ‘revolutions’—fragmentation and globalisation—developing the concept of Postmodern Romanticism within these themes and applies them to trends in 1990s international relations. Further, the thesis examines Romantic interpretations of conflict in the works of Robert Kaplan, Samuel Huntington, and Martin van Creveld, specifically scrutinising their interpretations of conflict in Yugoslavia. It then empirically investigates various Romantic predictions about conflict, providing empirical evidence that these predictions are inaccurate. Building on the empirical analyses that find state creation rather than identity differences an important factor in conflict, the thesis develops an alternative theoretical framework for assessing state stability based on four structural risk factors: colonial legacy, political institutions, economic structure, and demographic shifts, introducing agency through the concepts of exit, voice, and loyalty. The thesis uses this framework to compare Romantic and structural views of conflict in Yugoslavia. Finally, it provides some reflections on 1990s Romanticism and conflict. 3 Table of contents Declaration .......................................................................................................................2 Abstract............................................................................................................................3 Table of contents ..............................................................................................................4 Table of figures ................................................................................................................6 Introduction. Of Flesh and Blood ..................................................................................7 (i) Why Romanticism?......................................................................................7 (ii) Why Yugoslavia?....................................................................................... 13 (iii) Chapter Overview...................................................................................... 14 (iv) Methodology .............................................................................................. 18 Chapter 1. Nineteenth-Century Romanticism and Zeitgeist : Defining an Age 21 1.1 Romanticisms and the Zeitgeist—Definitions ............................................25 1.2 Historicising Nineteenth-Century Romanticism—Political, economic, and cultural background ............................................................................ 29 1.3 Deep Sleep of Reason—Anti-rationalism and spiritual reawakening ........33 1.4 O Temporal O Mores!—Pessimism and ennui ..........................................37 1.5 Protagoras’ Children—Relativism, nationalism, and w ill .........................40 1.6 Search for a Golden Age—Nostalgia and medievalism .............................44 1.7 Dreaming of Arcadia—Nature and the exotic ............................................47 1.8 Walking by Faith, Not Sight—Conclusion ................................................50 Chapter 2. Age without a Name: The Romantic Zeitgeist in post-Cold W ar International Relations .................................................................................................53 2.1 Historicising Postmodern Romanticism—Global disruptions in the 1990s ......................................................................................................... 57 2.2 Armour of God—Anti-rationalism and emotionalism ...............................64 2.3 Valediction in the Air?—Pessimism and ennui .........................................73 2.4 Cement of Blood—Relativism, nationalism, and identity .........................81 2.5 Painting Over the Ugly Parts—Nostalgia and neo-imperialism ................88 2.6 Hearts of Darkness—Essential human nature and the exotic ‘Other’ ........92 2.7 No Shelter, No Relief?—Conclusion .........................................................97 Chapter 3. Prophets of the Apocalypse: Romantic Approaches to Conflict in Kaplan, Huntington, and van Creveld ......................................................................101 3.1 Making Meaning—Metaphors and analogies .......................................... 104 3.2 Postmodern Jeremiah—Kaplan and the ‘coming anarchy’ ...................... 108 3.3 Every One Against His Brother—Huntington’s culture clash ................. 123 3.4 Return to Darkness and the Sword—Decline of the state and rise of insecurity in Van Creveld’s neo-medievalism .........................................130 3.5 Omnium Finis Imminet?—Conclusion .................................................... 136 Chapter 4. Increased Conflict in the Early 1990s: A Harbinger of the Coming Anarchy?...................................................................................................................... 140 4.1 Looking Backward—Background to the chapter ..................................... 141 4.2 Methodology—Definitions of conflict and overview .............................. 143 4.3 Conflict Levels—The Cold War, 1945-1988 ........................................... 149 4.4 Conflict Levels—The post-Cold War transition, 1989-1992 ................... 151 4.5 Conflict Levels—The later post-Cold War, 1993-1999 ........................... 153 4.6 Conflict Levels—The turn of the millennium, 2000-2004 ...................... 156 4 4.7 The Effects of State Collapse on Conflict Levels—The disintegration of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia ....................................................... 157 4.8 The Effects of African Conflicts on Conflict Levels in the 1990s ........... 159 4.9 Conflict Termination—An under-explored post-Cold War trend ............ 162 4.10 Conflict and State Creation during the Cold War—Wars of decolonisation ...........................................................................................165 4.11 Why Fight?—Tracking reasons for conflict, 1945-1999 ......................... 171 4.12 The Coming Anarchy Myth—Conclusion............................................... 179 Chapter 5. Rationalism Redux: Assessing State Stability from a Structural Perspective................................................................................................................... 185 5.1 Structures, Stability, and Conflict—Examining four risk factors ............ 187 5.2 The Legacy of the Past—Colonial/imperial history and institutions ....... 188 5.3 The Structure of the Present—Political factors ........................................ 193 5.4 The Structure of the Present—Economic factors ..................................... 195 5.5 The Shadow of the Future—Demographic change .................................. 198 5.6 Method of Analysis—Exploring agency through exit, voice, and loyalty...................................................................................................... 202 5.7 The Role of Exit and Voice in Stemming Institutional Deterioration ......204 5.8 The Logic of Loyalty in Institutions ........................................................207 5.9 Towards an Alternative Framework—Conclusion ..................................209 Chapter 6. Slouching Towards Barbarism?: Comparing Romantic and Structural Perspectives on the Disintegration of Yugoslavia ..................................211 6.1 Where the Wild Things Are—Irrationality, relativism, nature................214 6.2