2014 Post-Election Analysis: New Mexico

2014 POST-ELECTION ANALYSIS: NEW MEXICO

TABLE OF CONTENTS

STATE OVERVIEW 2

Registration Overview 3

Turnout Analysis 4

Absentee/Early Voting 4

Regional Analysis 5

Election Law Impacts 6

Exit Polling 6

CONSTITUTIONAL OFFICES 6

Secretary of State 6

Attorney General 12

STATE LEGISLATURE 18

State House 18

Consequences 19

STATE OVERVIEW

New Mexico has come to be considered a solidly “blue” state at the federal level. This is reflected in the state’s congressional delegation, which boasts two Democratic senators, one of whom coasted to re-election in 2014, and two Democratic Members of Congress (of three total seats), who both also easily won re-election.1 Additionally, while George W. Bush was able to win the state’s electoral votes in 2004, he did so by a margin of less than a point. President Obama carried the state in 2008 and 2012 by double-digit margins.2

However, politics at the state level shows a bit of a different picture. In 2010, riding a nationwide Republican wave, Susana Martinez was elected governor. Republicans also took control of the secretary of state’s office for the first time since 1930.3 The new Republican executives took advantage of their positions by attempting to usher in a new era of conservative governance — all while New Mexico remained ranked near the bottom nationally in economic well-being.4 While Attorney General Gary King’s campaign to unseat Martinez ended up fizzling out, New Mexico was still left with two major competitive statewide races: the open attorney general seat and the re- election campaign of Secretary of State Dianna Duran. While Democrats were successful in picking up the attorney general seat, Secretary Duran won a close race against Maggie Toulouse Oliver (D).5

One institution that saw major change this election was the state House. Democrats have maintained majorities in the state Senate since 1989 and the state House since 1955 — yet they had to fight for legislative control of the lower chamber this year (the Senate was not up this cycle).6 Entering the election, Democrats held a four-seat edge over Republicans in the House.7 Republicans only needed to net three seats to gain a majority; they ultimately netted five, allowing them to take control of the House for the first time in over 50 years.

Ultimately, New Mexico was affected by the national Republican wave to a lesser extent than other states. However, Republicans here scored victories in this election that may help aid Governor Martinez in her pursuit of a more conservative state government.

1 Joe Monahan, “Polling Has Pearce Sitting High on his Perch; Reps Grisham and Lujan Coasting,” New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan, September 4, 2014. 2 Atlas Online Toolkit, Election Results module, accessed 10/29/14. 3 James Monteleone and Dan Boyd, “Duran First Republican in Post since 1930,” Albuquerque Journal, November 3, 2010. 4 Daniel Libit, “The Man Who Discovered Susana Martinez Could Also Be Her Downfall,” National Journal, November 21, 2013; Ryan Reilly, “GOP New Mexico Sec of State Finds Tiny Fraction Of The Voter Fraud She Alleged,” Talking Points Memo, November 18, 2011; Royale Da, “Report: New Mexico 50th in Nation for Child Well-Being,” KOAT, January 21, 2014. 5 "New Mexico: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:56 p.m. 6 “New Mexico Legislature, Political Control,” New Mexico State Legislature, accessed October 22, 2014. 7 “Political Composition,” New Mexico Legislature, accessed November 1, 2014.

New Mexico 2014 Election Results Dem vs. Incumbent Dem GOP Other Office Democrat Republican GOP % Party % % % Margin U.S. Senate Tom Udall Allen Weh D 55.4% 44.6% 0.0% 10.8% Michelle Lujan NM-01 Mike Frese D 58.5% 41.5% 0.0% 17.0% Grisham NM-02 Roxanne Lara Steve Pearce R 35.5% 64.5% 0.0% -29.0% NM-03 Ben Ray Lujan Jefferson Byrd D 61.2% 38.8% 0.0% 22.4% Susana Governor Gary King R 42.7% 57.3% 0.0% -14.6% Martinez Secretary of Maggie Toulouse Dianna Duran R 48.2% 51.8% 0.0% -3.6% State Oliver Attorney Hector Balderas Susan Riedel D 58.1% 41.9% 0.0% 16.2% General

Treasurer Tim Eichenberg Rick Lopez D 52.4% 47.6% 0.0% 4.8%

State House 37 seats 33 seats D 33 D 37 R N/A R+4 Sources: "New Mexico: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:56 p.m.

REGISTRATION OVERVIEW New Mexico’s electorate is solidly Democratic; about half of registered voters are Democrats, while the other half are divided among Republicans, third parties, and unaffiliated voters. Since 2008, however, the Democratic share of registration has declined from over 50% to 46.6%. Republican registration experienced a smaller decline in share of overall registration, dropping 0.6 percentage points, but remains far lower than Democratic registration overall at 31.2%. Meanwhile, the share of voters who choose not to identify with either major party has increased 3.5 points since 2008.8

Despite this apparent advantage, registered Democrats turn out at a significantly lower rate than Republicans, and the state elections can therefore end up being more competitive than partisan registration indicates. As a general rule, higher overall turnout helps Democrats, as their presidential-year success in the state shows.

8 “Voter Registration Statistics Report,” New Mexico Secretary of State, October 20, 2014.

New Mexico Voter Registration by Party Dem Date Dem Dem % GOP GOP % Other Other % Total Advantage 2004 Election 550,519 49.8% 359,563 32.5% 195,290 17.7% 1,105,372 190,956 2006 Election 538,471 49.4% 358,825 33.0% 191,681 17.6% 1,088,977 179,646 2008 Election 592,898 50.1% 375,272 31.7% 214,911 18.2% 1,183,081 217,626 2010 Election 570,659 49.5% 367,638 31.9% 214,620 18.6% 1,152,917 203,021 2012 Election 596,089 47.5% 395,842 31.6% 262,636 20.9% 1,254,567 200,247 2014 Election 600,540 46.6% 401,337 31.2% 285,788 22.2% 1,287,665 199,203 Change Since 50,021 -3.2% 41,774 -1.4% 90,498 4.5% 182,293 8,247 2004 Sources: “Voter Registration Report by County,” New Mexico Secretary of State, November 2, 2004; “Voter Registration Statistics Report,” New Mexico Secretary of State, November 7, 2006; “Voter Registration Statistics Report,” New Mexico Secretary of State, October 17, 2008; “Voter Registration Statistics Report,” New Mexico Secretary of State, October 12, 2010; “Voter Registration Statistics Report,” New Mexico Secretary of State, October 19, 2012; “Voter Registration Statistics Report,” New Mexico Secretary of State, October 20, 2014. Atlas Online Toolkit, Voter Registration module, accessed 10/22/14.

TURNOUT ANALYSIS New Mexico’s turnout has been below average in every presidential election since 2000; conversely, midterm turnout was higher than the national average in the last three midterm elections. Given Democrats’ significant registration advantage, higher turnout elections generally favor Democratic candidates in New Mexico. This is evidenced by the results of the 2014 election. New Mexico’s voter turnout rate was above the national average, and Democrats fared much better here than in many other states this cycle.

New Mexico VEP Turnout Since 2008 VEP Highest- VEP Turnout National VEP Year VEP Office Turnout Rate Turnout Rate 2008 1,362,629 830,158 60.9% 61.6% 2010 1,408,990 602,827 42.8% 40.9% 2012 1,436,189 783,757 54.6% 58.0% 2014* 1,436,968 550,000 38.3% 36.6% Difference from 2010 27,978 -52,827 -4.5% -4.3% Difference from 2012 779 -233,757 -16.3% -21.4% Sources: “2014 November General Election Turnout Rates,” United States Elections Project, accessed November 5, 2014.

*2014 VEP turnout is a preliminary estimate from the U.S. Elections Project and should not be viewed as final.

ABSENTEE/EARLY VOTING In New Mexico, voters may cast their ballots early by filling out an absentee ballot in person at any county clerk’s office during regular business hours beginning 28 days before an election. However, technically this is absentee voting, not early voting.9 In small counties (less than 10,000 voters), this

9 “Absentee and Early Voting,” New Mexico Secretary of State, accessed November 1, 2014.

is the only early-voting option.10 In sufficiently populated counties, actual early-voting locations open on the third Saturday before the election and close the Saturday before the election — this year, October 18 through November 1.11

New Mexico Method of Vote Since 2008 Total Absentee Absentee Early Early In-Person In-Person Year Voters Votes % Votes % Votes % 2008 833,365 172,136 20.7% 347,159 41.7% 314,070 37.7% 2010 607,700 82,655 13.6% 215,113 35.4% 309,932 51.0% 2012 786,522 88,848 11.3% 374,574 47.6% 323,100 41.1% 2014 504,381 51,012 10.1% 231,552 45.9% 221,817 44.0% Difference from 2010 -103,319 -31,643 -3.5% 16,439 10.5% -88,115 -7.0% Difference from 2012 -282,141 -37,836 -1.2% -143,022 -1.7% -101,283 2.9%

Sources: “2014 Early & Absentee Vote Counts,” New Mexico Secretary of State, November 5, 2014; “Canvass of Returns of General Election Held on November 6, 2012 – State of New Mexico,” New Mexico Secretary of State, November 6, 2012; “Canvass of Returns of General Election Held on November 2, 2010 – State of New Mexico,” New Mexico Secretary of State, November 2, 2010; “Canvass of Returns of General Election Held on November 4, 2008 – State of New Mexico,” New Mexico Secretary of State, November 4, 2008.

REGIONAL ANALYSIS New Mexico can be conceptualized through four disparately sized regions: the compact Bernalillo County region, an expansive South region, the two-county Navajo Country region in the northwest and an adjacent and large North region.

Bernalillo County, which encompasses the city of Albuquerque, is home to a plurality of New Mexico’s vote share (34.6% in 2012).12 Democrats typically win the county and perform between two and four points better here than they do statewide, making it a reasonable bellwether region.

The North is a crucial base for statewide Democrats. The region accounted for 23.8% of the statewide vote share but 29.2% of the Democratic vote share in the 2012 presidential election.13 Important cities in the North include Santa Fe, Rio Rancho and Taos. The North region is home to many of the state’s Native American pueblos and, according to in-state experts, many Hispanic families who have called New Mexico home since before statehood.14

The South region covers roughly two-thirds of the state and is the second-largest region by vote share — 32.9% in 2012.15 The South is usually the most conservative region in the state, and due its size, it is the largest source of Republican votes.16 Despite the Republican tendencies of this region, it is important for Democrats to stay competitive here. Doña Ana County, source of 8.5% of the statewide vote share in 2012, is home to Las Cruces, New Mexico’s second-largest city.17

10 N.M. Stat. §1-6-5.7. 11 “Absentee and Early Voting,” New Mexico Secretary of State, accessed November 1, 2014. 12 Atlas Online Toolkit, Legacy Tables module, accessed 10/22/14. 13 Atlas Online Toolkit, Legacy Tables module, accessed 10/22/14; Atlas Online Toolkit, Election Results module, accessed 11/1/14. 14 “Map to the 19 Pueblos of New Mexico,” Indian Pueblo Cultural Center, accessed November 1, 2014; Atlas expert interview, conducted January 11, 2013. 15 Atlas Online Toolkit, Legacy Tables module, accessed 10/22/14. 16 Atlas Online Toolkit, Election Results module, accessed 11/1/14. 17 Atlas Online Toolkit, Legacy Tables module, accessed 10/22/14; “Las Cruces (city), New Mexico,” U.S. Census Bureau, accessed November 1, 2014.

Navajo Country consists of San Juan and McKinley Counties in northwest New Mexico. While the region as a whole does not typically support Democratic statewide candidates, it is important to contest it, turn out Native American voters, and not let Republicans run up their margins.18

ELECTION LAW IMPACTS In January 2014, Republican Secretary of State Dianna Duran announced that residents can begin registering to vote online while they are at the Motor Vehicle Division.19 However, this does not appear to have had an impact on the 2014 election. From May 2014 to October 2014, New Mexico voter registration increased by only 11,269 — even less than the 22,315-voter increase from May to October 2010.20

EXIT POLLING Exit polling was not available in New Mexico in 2014. CONSTITUTIONAL OFFICES

Incumbent Gov. Susana Martinez consistently led her opponent, Gary King (D), by double-digits in the weeks leading up to the election. She rode her popularity to re-election in 2014, beating King 57% to 43%.21

SECRETARY OF STATE Secretary of State Dianna Duran, elected alongside Susana Martinez in 2010, is the first Republican to hold the office of secretary of state in New Mexico since 1930.22 Her predecessor, Mary Herrera, had been investigated for (but was later cleared of) allegations of cronyism and doing political work from her government office.23 Duran took advantage and defeated Herrera’s bid for re-election, winning by a resounding 57.4% to 42.6%. She also received more votes statewide than any other non-unopposed candidate that year, including Martinez.24

Since her election, Duran has made a number of changes to election law and administration in the state, many of which have angered Democrats. In one case, she reversed course on her office’s interpretation of a key campaign-finance law in a way that was perceived as aiding fellow Republican Susana Martinez.25 She also eliminated straight-ticket voting in the state and banned the League of Women Voters’ voter guide from county clerk’s offices and polling places, saying that the non-

18 Atlas Online Toolkit, Election Results module, accessed 11/1/14. 19 “New Mexico Starts Limited Online Voter Registration,” Associated Press, January 15, 2014. 20 “2014 Voter Registration Data,” New Mexico Secretary of State, accessed November 1, 2014; “2010 Voter Registration Data,” New Mexico Secretary of State, accessed November 1, 2014. 21 "New Mexico: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:56 p.m. 22 James Monteleone and Dan Boyd, “Duran First Republican in Post since 1930,” Albuquerque Journal, November 3, 2010. 23 Steve Terrell, “AG: Herrera Won’t Face Charges,” Santa Fe New Mexican, March 27, 2013; Steve Terrell, “Secretary of State’s Race Rivals Spar on Voter ID, Fraud,” Santa Fe New Mexican, October 18, 2014. 24 “Canvass of Returns of General Election Held on November 2, 2010 – State of New Mexico,” New Mexico Secretary of State, accessed October 22, 2014. 25 Barry Massey, “NM Elections Official Changes View on Contribution Gap,” Associated Press, October 13, 2011.

partisan guides constituted electioneering.26 Like many other activist secretaries of state nationwide, Duran also doggedly pursued alleged non-citizen voters and purged the voter roll.27

This race quickly developed into one of the state Democratic Party’s biggest targets. She charged that Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gary King had accepted campaign donations in amounts greater than what was allowed under New Mexico law.28 Democrats were quick to pounce on her accusations, suggesting that Duran was playing politics to help fellow state Republicans in their elections.29

Democrats nominated Maggie Toulouse Oliver, the current Bernalillo County clerk, to challenge Duran’s bid for re-election. Toulouse Oliver made it clear that her priority was to undo Duran’s policies that restricted voting rights. She criticized Duran for focusing on “how [we can] limit the opportunities to vote, how [we can] restrict voting rights, how [we can] restrict access to the ballot box.”30

The two campaigns’ narratives led to a focus on voter ID laws. Duran defended the idea of stronger voter identification laws to protect the “integrity of the entire electoral process.”31 During her tenure as secretary of state, she claimed to have uncovered 117 undocumented immigrants who were registered to vote.32 She also turned over the names of 64,000 New Mexicans to state police for investigation, citing discrepancies between the information on voters’ driver’s licenses and their voter registration forms. This action led an outside group, SOS for Democracy, to release a hard-hitting ad, accusing Duran of being “reckless” and going on a “wild goose chase.”33 Duran’s investigations ultimately produced nothing of substance.34

Toulouse Oliver said she opposes voter ID laws and referred to a Loyola Marymount University study that found only 31 credible cases of voter fraud since 2000. She charged that implementing the kind of laws that Duran advocated would disenfranchise 10%–12% of the population.35 Regardless of the candidates’ views, short of Republicans winning majorities in both chambers of the New Mexico legislature, voter ID laws have a minimal chance of gaining any legislative traction.36

As of November 1, Toulouse Oliver had raised $584,545 for the cycle and spent $547,406. These efforts far outpaced Duran, who raised roughly $348,183 and spent $324,937.37 However, despite the disparities in fundraising, polls showed the race neck and neck. The first internal polling from Toulouse Oliver’s campaign, from mid-August, showed her up by three points, 47% to 44%.38 Then, in early October, a Gravis poll gave Toulouse Oliver a six-point lead over Duran, only to be

26 Barry Massey, “NM Ends Straight-Ticket Voting Option,” Associated Press, June 17, 2012; Elaine Baumgartel, “League of Women Voters Voter Guides Prohibited at the Polls on Election Day,” KUNM New Mexico Public Radio, November 5, 2012. 27 Michael Haederle, “Voter Fraud Claims Ruffle Feathers in New Mexico,” Los Angeles Times, July 31, 2011; Janelle Ross, “New Mexico Voter Purge Tests Voter Psyche, May Suppress Turnout,” Huffington Post, September 27, 2012. 28 Steve Terrell, “King, Duran Spar over Campaign Contributions,” Santa Fe New Mexican, July 28, 2014. 29 Matthew Reichbach, “Secretary of State Race Starting to Heat Up,” New Mexico Telegram, August 5, 2014. 30 Walter Rubel, “Oliver Vies to Unseat Duran in New Mexico Secretary of State Race,” Las Cruces News, October 9, 2014. 31 Deborah Baker, “Electoral Process Hot Topic in Race for Secretary of State,” Albuquerque Journal, September 28, 2014. 32 Steve Terrell, “Secretary of State’s Race Rivals Spar on Voter ID, Fraud,” Santa Fe New Mexican, October 18, 2014. 33 Steve Terrell, “Election Ad Watch: Soros-Backed PAC Attacks Duran on Voter Fraud Case,” Santa Fe New Mexican, October 22, 2014. 34 Steve Terrell, “Secretary of State’s Race Rivals Spar on Voter ID, Fraud,” Santa Fe New Mexican, October 18, 2014. 35 Steve Terrell, “Secretary of State’s Race Rivals Spar on Voter ID, Fraud,” Santa Fe New Mexican, October 18, 2014. 36 Matthew Reichbach, “Secretary of State Race Starting to Heat Up,” New Mexico Telegram, August 5, 2014. 37 “Search Candidates,” New Mexico Campaign Finance Information System, accessed November 1, 2014. 38 Matthew Reichbach, “Toulouse Oliver Internal Poll Shows Very Close Race,” New Mexico Telegram, September 15, 2014.

contradicted by a BWD Global poll a few weeks later, which showed Duran ahead by 2.6 points.39 An Albuquerque Journal poll one week before the election put the race at a tie, 42%–42%.40

New Mexico Secretary of State 2014 Public Polling

New Mexico Secretary of State Polling Accuracy Toulouse Oliver Pollster Dates Sample Duran % % Gravis Marketing 9/27-10/1 727 44% 38% BWD Global 10/21-10/21 1,027 48% 45% Albuquerque Journal 10/21-10/23 614 42% 42% Average N/A N/A 45% 42% Final Results N/A N/A 48.2% 51.8% Difference N/A N/A 4% 10% Sources: Matthew Reichbach, “Toulouse Oliver Internal Poll Shows Very Close Race,” New Mexico Telegram, September 15, 2014; Matthew Reichbach, “Gravis Marketing Shows Close Martinez/King Race, Big Udall Lead,” New Mexico Telegram, October 3, 2014; Matthew Reichbach, “Poll Says Martinez Leads Big, Duran Narrow Lead over Toulouse Oliver,” New Mexico Telegram, October 22, 2014; Dan Boyd and Deborah Baker, “Journal Poll: 2 of 3 Top Races for Statewide Office Are Close,” Albuquerque Journal, October 27, 2014; "New Mexico: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:56 p.m.

Although polling generally showed Toulouse Oliver faring well in the race, it was Duran who ultimately won, finishing ahead of her Democratic opponent by 3.6%.41

39 Matthew Reichbach, “Gravis Marketing Shows Close Martinez/King Race, Big Udall Lead,” New Mexico Telegram, October 3, 2014; Matthew Reichbach, “Poll Says Martinez Leads Big, Duran Narrow Lead over Toulouse Oliver,” New Mexico Telegram, October 22, 2014. 40 Dan Boyd and Deborah Baker, “Journal Poll: 2 of 3 Top Races for Statewide Office Are Close,” Albuquerque Journal, October 27, 2014. 41 "New Mexico: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:56 p.m.

New Mexico Secretary of State 2014 Results Registered Total Toulouse Toulouse Other Duran Votes Duran % Other % Voters Voters Oliver Votes Oliver % Votes 1,287,665 496,653 239,531 48.2% 257,122 51.8% 0 0.0% Sources: “New Mexico: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:56 p.m.

MEDIA SPENDING ANALYSIS

The media spending numbers in this section are from CMAG and consist of broadcast television data only. Costs are estimates as of November 5, 2014. All data is copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

Broadcast TV spending was minimal in this race, getting off to a late start. Toulouse Oliver first went up on October 14, and Duran followed immediately on October 15. Toulouse Oliver’s campaign spent an estimated $184,000 on 558 spots, while Duran spent an estimated $221,000 on 569 spots.42

Outside spending was relatively minimal in this race. Only SOS for Democracy got involved in advertising. The group spent an estimated $222,000 for 382 spots on broadcast to oppose Duran’s candidacy. The SOS for Democracy buy started October 16 and lasted through Election Day.43

The ads were aired exclusively in the Albuquerque media market.44

42 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 43 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 44 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

New Mexico Secretary of State Broadcast-Media Spot Count, June 3 – November 4, 2014

New Mexico Secretary of State Estimated Broadcast-Media Spending, June 3 – November 4, 2014

MESSAGING This race saw less involvement from outside groups than in other races, resulting in messaging that was mostly limited to the candidates’ backgrounds and platforms. Ads in the secretary of state’s race were generally positive at the beginning. Toulouse Oliver released an ad touting her efforts as Bernalillo County clerk to protect New Mexicans’ right to vote. Similarly, Duran’s first ad promoted her first term work to clean up the image of the office that had she believed had been tarnished by her predecessor. The ad wars took a more pointed tone when SOS for Democracy got involved. The IE group issued an ad attacking Duran for conducting what amounted to little more than a wild goose chase when she tried to investigate 64,000 New Mexicans for possible connections to voter fraud.45 Duran doubled down on her positions and released a new ad attacking Toulouse Oliver for not supporting efforts to prevent supposed voter fraud.46 The candidates’ ads predominantly addressed the issues of elections and voter ID.

GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS

In order to win statewide in New Mexico, successful Democrats usually win at least 53% in Bernalillo County, win at least 61% in the North, hold down Republican margins in the South (winning at least 41%), and win 44% of Navajo Country.47 Toulouse Oliver came up just short of meeting three of the four benchmarks. She did, though, manage to win 54% of the vote in Bernalillo County, which is crucial for any candidate, as it contained almost a third of votes cast in the race.48 However, it was not enough to carry her to victory. In the end, she only carried eight of New Mexico’s 33 counties. The areas where she performed particularly well — i.e., garnered more than 60% percent of the vote — were all carried by President Obama in 2012. These include San Miguel, Santa Fe, and Taos Counties. However, one Obama stronghold, Guadalupe County, went to Duran, as did the 26 remaining counties.49

45 Matthew Reichbach, “SoS Candidates Up on the Air, So is a Liberal Super PAC,” New Mexico Telegram, October 16, 2014. 46 Dianna Duran, “Dianna Duran Secretary of State 2014_ Voter ID,” YouTube, October 25, 2014. 47 Atlas Online Toolkit, Roadmaps module, accessed 11/7/14. 48 "New Mexico: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:56 p.m.; State & County QuickFacts – Bernalillo County, New Mexico: New Mexico, U.S. Census Bureau, accessed November 7, 2014. 49 "New Mexico: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:56 p.m.

Toulouse Oliver 2014 Performance by County

Toulouse Oliver came incredibly close to winning two of the three major media markets in this race. In the Albuquerque-Santa Fe market, she received 49% of the vote; in the El Paso market, 47.4%. Save for the 2010 gubernatorial race, Democrats have dominated these counties since 2006, which makes her relatively strong performances here expected. This explains why she was able to keep the race close: the Albuquerque market made up just under 90% of the state’s 2014 electorate. She took her biggest hit in the Amarillo market, winning only 26.9% of the vote. With the exception of former Governor Bill Richardson in 2006, Democrats generally have not performed well in this area.50 However, it only covered about 3% of the voters in this election.

ATTORNEY GENERAL After serving two terms in office, Democratic Attorney General Gary King was ineligible to run for re- election in 2014. Democrats were prepared, however, and tapped state Auditor Hector Balderas to make a bid for King’s seat. Although Balderas lost the 2012 Democratic primary for U.S. Senate to now-Senator Martin Heinrich, Balderas is seen as a rising star in the party.51 By September, he had

50 "New Mexico: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:56 p.m. 51 “Balderas, Riedel Vie to be New Mexico’s Top Cop,” Associated Press, October 24, 2014; “Canvass of Returns of Primary Election Held on June 5, 2012 – State of New Mexico,” New Mexico Secretary of State, June 5, 2012.

raised more money than any other statewide candidate, save for Susana Martinez.52 The same day that he announced his candidacy, the D.C.-based Republican State Leadership Committee issued a press release attacking him. A spokeswoman for the committee has said that it is “a top tier race” for them and that New Mexico is “a state we plan to play in.”53

Republicans nominated Susan Riedel. Riedel spent 25 years as a New Mexico prosecutor and another 14 as the chief deputy district attorney in the Third Judicial District. In 2011, she was appointed to a judgeship in the Third District, only to lose election one year later. However, during her years as a prosecutor, Riedel was introduced to Susana Martinez. In 2012, Martinez asked Riedel if she would consider running for attorney general.54

In 1994, Reidel’s husband was killed by a drunk driver. As a result, she decided to take on the issue of victims’ rights as a prosecutor.55 Most notably, she prosecuted the case of “Baby Brianna,” an infamous incident of child abuse and murder. Riedel used that issue, as well as government corruption, as the two focal points of her campaign.56 Balderas also had experience as a prosecutor, and while he did not engage much in a debate over victims’ rights, he did challenge Riedel on her purported commitment to fighting corruption. He claimed that she was not tough enough on perpetrators of fraud and that he developed both the experience and the skills to uncover fraud and corruption during his time as the state auditor.57

Balderas held a dominant lead in fundraising throughout the campaign. As of November 1, Balderas had raised almost $1.2 million and spent $892,102. Riedel was far behind, with just $330,068 raised and $299,053 spent.58 This fundraising dynamic was mirrored in two October polls, both showing Balderas ahead with room to spare. The first, conducted by Gravis Marketing, gave Balderas a 52%–37% lead over Riedel.59 Several days later, BWD Global showed the Democrat with a smaller, but nevertheless comfortable lead, 48%–41%.60 An Albuquerque Journal poll released one week before the election showed Balderas had once again widened his lead, this time to 51%–35%.61

52 “5 Things to Know about New Mexico’s Elections,” Associated Press, September 1, 2014. 53 “State Attorney General Race Already Drawing National Attention,” Santa Fe New Mexican, May 1, 2013. 54 Jessica Palmer, “Candidate Susan Riedel Fights for Victims’ Rights, Takes a Hard Line against Corruption,” Alamogordo Daily News, May 13, 2014. 55 Jessica Palmer, “Candidate Susan Riedel Fights for Victims’ Rights, Takes a Hard Line against Corruption,” Alamogordo Daily News, May 13, 2014. 56 Susan Montoya Bryan, “New Mexico's Attorney General Race Focuses on Weeding out Corruption, Advocating for Victims,” Associated Press, October 24, 2014. 57 Susan Montoya Bryan, “New Mexico's Attorney General Race Focuses on Weeding out Corruption, Advocating for Victims,” Associated Press, October 24, 2014. 58 “Search Candidates,” New Mexico Campaign Finance Information System, accessed November 1, 2014. 59 Matthew Reichbach, “Gravis Marketing Shows Close Martinez/King Race, Big Udall Lead,” New Mexico Telegram, October 3, 2014. 60 Matthew Reichbach, “Poll: Balderas Leads Riedel 48-41,” New Mexico Telegram, October 9, 2014. 61 Dan Boyd and Deborah Baker, “Journal Poll: 2 of 3 Top Races for Statewide Office Are Close,” Albuquerque Journal, October 27, 2014.

New Mexico Attorney General 2014 Public Polling

New Mexico Attorney General Polling Accuracy Pollster Dates Sample Balderas % Riedel % Gravis Marketing 9/27-10/1 727 52% 37% BWD Global 10/6-10/7 1,509 48% 41% Albuquerque Journal 10/21-10/23 614 51% 35% Real Clear Politics Average N/A N/A 50% 38% Final Results N/A N/A 58.1% 41.9% Difference N/A N/A 8% 4%

Sources: Matthew Reichbach, “Gravis Marketing Shows Close Martinez/King Race, Big Udall Lead,” New Mexico Telegram, October 3, 2014; Matthew Reichbach, “Poll: Balderas Leads Riedel 48-41,” New Mexico Telegram, October 9, 2014; Dan Boyd and Deborah Baker, “Journal Poll: 2 of 3 Top Races for Statewide Office Are Close,” Albuquerque Journal, October 27, 2014; "New Mexico: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:56 p.m.

As pre-election polling indicated, Balderas held a solid lead over Riedel. Balderas continued that trend into Election Day, where he won the seat by almost 20 points. New Mexico Attorney General 2014 Results Registered Total Balderas Other Balderas % Riedel Votes Riedel % Other % Voters Voters Votes Votes 1,287,665 495,374 287,890 58.1% 207,484 41.9% 0 0.0% Sources: “New Mexico: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:56 p.m.

MEDIA SPENDING ANALYSIS

Media spending disproportionately favored Balderas in this election. His campaign spent more than twice as much on ads (an estimated $480,000) than the Riedel camp (an estimated $215,000). This corresponded with greater air time and visibility for Balderas, who claimed 996 spots, compared to Riedel’s 481 spots. Both campaigns started their ad campaigns in September.

One outside group on each side aired broadcast commercials, beginning in October. For progressives, the Committee for Justice and Fairness spent roughly $366,000 on 493 spots; the conservative Republican Attorneys General Association New Mexico doled out an estimated $120,000 for 211 spots.

When combining these totals, progressive spending totaled an estimated $846,000 for 1,489 spots, dwarfing an estimated $335,000 spent on 692 spots by conservatives.

The ads were aired exclusively in the Albuquerque media market.62

New Mexico Attorney General Broadcast-Media Spot Count, June 3 – November 4, 2014

New Mexico Attorney General Estimated Broadcast-Media Spending, June 3 – November 4, 2014

MESSAGING As a way of quantifying messaging analysis, Atlas utilized CMAG issue tags to measure the paid media messaging in key races. It is important to note that this analysis quantifies the share of issue messaging across all broadcast advertising in a race, and it is not a reflection of the percentage of ads that featured one type of issue messaging or another.

An analysis of issues tagged in ads by CMAG found that messaging in the attorney general race revolved predominantly around corruption, taxes, and public safety. Both candidates used their backgrounds to paint a narrative of careers spent being tough on crime and corruption. Riedel invoked her experience prosecuting murder cases and protecting victims. Balderas framed himself as a fighter of corruption, and though Riedel frequently talked about the issue during her campaign, she never ran ads addressing it. Both candidates also took to the airwaves briefly to discuss taxes.

Top Issues in Partisan Messaging Issue Democrat Republican Total Public Safety 35% 70% 41% Taxes 18% 30% 20% Corruption 23% 0% 20% Domestic Abuse 15% 0% 12% Other 9% 0% 7% Source: CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS

In order to win statewide in New Mexico, successful Democrats usually win at least 53% in Bernalillo County, win at least 61% in the North, hold down Republican margins in the South (winning at least 41%), and win 44% of Navajo Country.63 Balderas clinched all four of these feats: he won 61.4% in Bernalillo, 70.7% in the North, 47.2% in the South, and 49.2% in Navajo Country.64

Balderas performed well throughout the state, winning 20 of the state’s 33 counties, seven of which he took with more than 70% of the vote. Those seven counties were also the seven strongest wins in New Mexico for President Obama in 2012, and they are located in the northern part of the state.65 The list includes Guadalupe, McKinley, Mora, Rio Arriba, San Miguel, Santa Fe, and Taos Counties.66

Balderas 2014 Performance by County

63 Atlas Online Toolkit, Roadmaps module, accessed 11/7/14. 64 "New Mexico: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:56 p.m. 65 “Election 2012 – President Map,” The New York Times, accessed November 5, 2012. 66 "New Mexico: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:56 p.m.

While he did not take the El Paso or Amarillo media markets, those areas contain a much smaller portion of the electorate than the Albuquerque-Santa Fe market, which Balderas won with 59.8% of the vote. This is where the highest quantity of voters was, meaning his strong performance here helped secure the win.67 STATE LEGISLATURE

STATE HOUSE Unlike the state Senate, which was not up for election in 2014, New Mexico’s entire 70-member state House was on the ballot in 2014. Democrats have had continuous control of the New Mexico House since 1955, but that grip was in real danger in 2014, as their majority was down to 37–33 entering the election.68 Republicans thus needed a net gain of only two seats to break Democratic control and split the House, or a net gain of three seats to gain an outright majority. On Election Day, voters helped the GOP net four seats, giving them that majority, 37-33, for the first time in almost 60 years.69

Roughly 10 districts were extremely competitive and attracted high levels of interest and outside money, a continuation of the multi-front war waged in 2012 for legislative control. Several PACs and independent-expenditure groups were set up on both sides for the express purpose of playing in legislative races. Republicans created a committee called Advance New Mexico Now, funded by the Republican State Leadership Committee, which spent $140,000 through mid-October attacking Democratic candidates via mail.70 On the progressive side, Patriot Majority worked aggressively to defend the Democratic majority in the state House. Patriot Majority ran a series of radio and online ads, as well as mail pieces, in targeted state House races. The top races targeted by Patriot Majority included HD-07, HD-15, HD-24, HD-36, HD-37, HD-43 and HD-50. In the tense HD-24 race, the Ken Martinez Leadership Fund, New Mexico Defense Fund, New Mexico Freedom, and NM House Majority Fund PAC all sent mailers. The Democratic Party of New Mexico also distributed mail in five swing districts. A super PAC named Verde Voters also ran radio ads in HD-15, HD-36 and HD-43. HD-53 was also targeted by state Republicans.71 All of these radio ads, mail pieces, and more are accessible on the Atlas Online Toolkit’s Activity Reports module.72

Republicans unseated five Democrats, while losing only one seat of their own. The newly red districts are HD-15, HD-24, HD-36, HD-53, and most surprisingly, HD-39, where Republicans pulled off the upset by just 351 votes. Democrats managed to flip a seat in HD-50, where Matthew McQueen soundly defeated Vickie Perea, 61% to 39%; Democrats were otherwise unable to pick up any extra seats to offset their losses.73

67 "New Mexico: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:56 p.m. 68 “New Mexico Legislature, Political Control,” New Mexico State Legislature, accessed October 22, 2014; “Political Composition,” New Mexico Legislature, accessed November 1, 2014. 69 "New Mexico: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:56 p.m. 70 Dan Boyd, “Super PACs Dump Money in NM Legislative Races,” Albuquerque Journal, October 15, 2014. 71 Alex Goldsmith, “The Battle for the New Mexico House,” KRQE News 13, October 21, 2014. 72 Atlas Online Toolkit, Activity Reports module, accessed 11/1/14. 73 Matthew Reichbach, “Republicans ride wave to control of state House,” New Mexico Telegram, November 5, 2014.

Historical Partisanship of New Mexico State House

50 45 45 38 40 37 37 35

30 33 32 33 25 Dem 25 GOP

Seats 20 15 10 5 0 2008 2010 2012 2014

CONSEQUENCES Although the Republicans retained control of the governorship and picked up control of the state House, Democrats still have a majority in the state Senate, which could prevent the GOP from pressing forward with an ultra-conservative agenda. This does not mean, however, that they won’t try. Some political observers believe the new Republican majority will steer clear of social issues and focus on economic matters.74 Specifically, there is a possibility of the introduction of “right to work” and tax cut legislation.

This new makeup of political power will be a sharp shift from the 2013-2014 session of the state legislature, when Democrats controlled both chambers. Gov. Martinez often tried pushing her conservative agenda by using executive orders and actions, such as her suspension of state carbon regulations and her rescission of a (Gov. Bill) Richardson-era directive prohibiting state law enforcement from inquiring about a person’s immigration status without justifiable cause.75 She also vetoed many bills passed by Democrats, including a proposed minimum wage hike.76

While any conservative policy, such as “right to work” or changes to the tax code, would ultimately still have to face a Democratic Senate, Republicans might be able to forge a working relationship with a coalition of conservative Senate Democrats to pass some of these measures. If Republicans are able to make this kind of alliance work, we may see New Mexico trend in a more rightward direction over the next two years.

74 Joe Monahan, “What Would the R's Do if They Take the State House?” New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan, September 24, 2014. 75 Marc Lacey, “New Mexico Governor Rushes to Undo the Agenda of Her Predecessor,” The New York Times, August 29, 2011; Andrea Nill Sanchez, “Susana Martinez’s Executive Order Has Its Problems, But It’s Not SB-1070,” ThinkProgress, February 2, 2011. 76 Matthew Reichbach, “Gov Vetoes Minimum Wage Increase,” New Mexico Telegram, March 29, 2013.