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2014 Post-Election Analysis: New Mexico

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2014 Post-Election Analysis: New Mexico 2014 POST-ELECTION ANALYSIS: NEW MEXICO TABLE OF CONTENTS STATE OVERVIEW 2 Registration Overview 3 Turnout Analysis 4 Absentee/Early Voting 4 Regional Analysis 5 Election Law Impacts 6 Exit Polling 6 CONSTITUTIONAL OFFICES 6 Secretary of State 6 Attorney General 12 STATE LEGISLATURE 18 State House 18 Consequences 19 STATE OVERVIEW New Mexico has come to be considered a solidly “blue” state at the federal level. This is reflected in the state’s congressional delegation, which boasts two Democratic senators, one of whom coasted to re-election in 2014, and two Democratic Members of Congress (of three total seats), who both also easily won re-election.1 Additionally, while George W. Bush was able to win the state’s electoral votes in 2004, he did so by a margin of less than a point. President Obama carried the state in 2008 and 2012 by double-digit margins.2 However, politics at the state level shows a bit of a different picture. In 2010, riding a nationwide Republican wave, Susana Martinez was elected governor. Republicans also took control of the secretary of state’s office for the first time since 1930.3 The new Republican executives took advantage of their positions by attempting to usher in a new era of conservative governance — all while New Mexico remained ranked near the bottom nationally in economic well-being.4 While Attorney General Gary King’s campaign to unseat Martinez ended up fizzling out, New Mexico was still left with two major competitive statewide races: the open attorney general seat and the re- election campaign of Secretary of State Dianna Duran. While Democrats were successful in picking up the attorney general seat, Secretary Duran won a close race against Maggie Toulouse Oliver (D).5 One institution that saw major change this election was the state House. Democrats have maintained majorities in the state Senate since 1989 and the state House since 1955 — yet they had to fight for legislative control of the lower chamber this year (the Senate was not up this cycle).6 Entering the election, Democrats held a four-seat edge over Republicans in the House.7 Republicans only needed to net three seats to gain a majority; they ultimately netted five, allowing them to take control of the House for the first time in over 50 years. Ultimately, New Mexico was affected by the national Republican wave to a lesser extent than other states. However, Republicans here scored victories in this election that may help aid Governor Martinez in her pursuit of a more conservative state government. 1 Joe Monahan, “Polling Has Pearce Sitting High on his Perch; Reps Grisham and Lujan Coasting,” New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan, September 4, 2014. 2 Atlas Online Toolkit, Election Results module, accessed 10/29/14. 3 James Monteleone and Dan Boyd, “Duran First Republican in Post since 1930,” Albuquerque Journal, November 3, 2010. 4 Daniel Libit, “The Man Who Discovered Susana Martinez Could Also Be Her Downfall,” National Journal, November 21, 2013; Ryan Reilly, “GOP New Mexico Sec of State Finds Tiny Fraction Of The Voter Fraud She Alleged,” Talking Points Memo, November 18, 2011; Royale Da, “Report: New Mexico 50th in Nation for Child Well-Being,” KOAT, January 21, 2014. 5 "New Mexico: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:56 p.m. 6 “New Mexico Legislature, Political Control,” New Mexico State Legislature, accessed October 22, 2014. 7 “Political Composition,” New Mexico Legislature, accessed November 1, 2014. 2 New Mexico 2014 Election Results Dem vs. Incumbent Dem GOP Other Office Democrat Republican GOP % Party % % % Margin U.S. Senate Tom Udall Allen Weh D 55.4% 44.6% 0.0% 10.8% Michelle Lujan NM-01 Mike Frese D 58.5% 41.5% 0.0% 17.0% Grisham NM-02 Roxanne Lara Steve Pearce R 35.5% 64.5% 0.0% -29.0% NM-03 Ben Ray Lujan Jefferson Byrd D 61.2% 38.8% 0.0% 22.4% Susana Governor Gary King R 42.7% 57.3% 0.0% -14.6% Martinez Secretary of Maggie Toulouse Dianna Duran R 48.2% 51.8% 0.0% -3.6% State Oliver Attorney Hector Balderas Susan Riedel D 58.1% 41.9% 0.0% 16.2% General Treasurer Tim Eichenberg Rick Lopez D 52.4% 47.6% 0.0% 4.8% State House 37 seats 33 seats D 33 D 37 R N/A R+4 Sources: "New Mexico: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:56 p.m. REGISTRATION OVERVIEW New Mexico’s electorate is solidly Democratic; about half of registered voters are Democrats, while the other half are divided among Republicans, third parties, and unaffiliated voters. Since 2008, however, the Democratic share of registration has declined from over 50% to 46.6%. Republican registration experienced a smaller decline in share of overall registration, dropping 0.6 percentage points, but remains far lower than Democratic registration overall at 31.2%. Meanwhile, the share of voters who choose not to identify with either major party has increased 3.5 points since 2008.8 Despite this apparent advantage, registered Democrats turn out at a significantly lower rate than Republicans, and the state elections can therefore end up being more competitive than partisan registration indicates. As a general rule, higher overall turnout helps Democrats, as their presidential-year success in the state shows. 8 “Voter Registration Statistics Report,” New Mexico Secretary of State, October 20, 2014. 3 New Mexico Voter Registration by Party Dem Date Dem Dem % GOP GOP % Other Other % Total Advantage 2004 Election 550,519 49.8% 359,563 32.5% 195,290 17.7% 1,105,372 190,956 2006 Election 538,471 49.4% 358,825 33.0% 191,681 17.6% 1,088,977 179,646 2008 Election 592,898 50.1% 375,272 31.7% 214,911 18.2% 1,183,081 217,626 2010 Election 570,659 49.5% 367,638 31.9% 214,620 18.6% 1,152,917 203,021 2012 Election 596,089 47.5% 395,842 31.6% 262,636 20.9% 1,254,567 200,247 2014 Election 600,540 46.6% 401,337 31.2% 285,788 22.2% 1,287,665 199,203 Change Since 50,021 -3.2% 41,774 -1.4% 90,498 4.5% 182,293 8,247 2004 Sources: “Voter Registration Report by County,” New Mexico Secretary of State, November 2, 2004; “Voter Registration Statistics Report,” New Mexico Secretary of State, November 7, 2006; “Voter Registration Statistics Report,” New Mexico Secretary of State, October 17, 2008; “Voter Registration Statistics Report,” New Mexico Secretary of State, October 12, 2010; “Voter Registration Statistics Report,” New Mexico Secretary of State, October 19, 2012; “Voter Registration Statistics Report,” New Mexico Secretary of State, October 20, 2014. Atlas Online Toolkit, Voter Registration module, accessed 10/22/14. TURNOUT ANALYSIS New Mexico’s turnout has been below average in every presidential election since 2000; conversely, midterm turnout was higher than the national average in the last three midterm elections. Given Democrats’ significant registration advantage, higher turnout elections generally favor Democratic candidates in New Mexico. This is evidenced by the results of the 2014 election. New Mexico’s voter turnout rate was above the national average, and Democrats fared much better here than in many other states this cycle. New Mexico VEP Turnout Since 2008 VEP Highest- VEP Turnout National VEP Year VEP Office Turnout Rate Turnout Rate 2008 1,362,629 830,158 60.9% 61.6% 2010 1,408,990 602,827 42.8% 40.9% 2012 1,436,189 783,757 54.6% 58.0% 2014* 1,436,968 550,000 38.3% 36.6% Difference from 2010 27,978 -52,827 -4.5% -4.3% Difference from 2012 779 -233,757 -16.3% -21.4% Sources: “2014 November General Election Turnout Rates,” United States Elections Project, accessed November 5, 2014. *2014 VEP turnout is a preliminary estimate from the U.S. Elections Project and should not be viewed as final. ABSENTEE/EARLY VOTING In New Mexico, voters may cast their ballots early by filling out an absentee ballot in person at any county clerk’s office during regular business hours beginning 28 days before an election. However, technically this is absentee voting, not early voting.9 In small counties (less than 10,000 voters), this 9 “Absentee and Early Voting,” New Mexico Secretary of State, accessed November 1, 2014. 4 is the only early-voting option.10 In sufficiently populated counties, actual early-voting locations open on the third Saturday before the election and close the Saturday before the election — this year, October 18 through November 1.11 New Mexico Method of Vote Since 2008 Total Absentee Absentee Early Early In-Person In-Person Year Voters Votes % Votes % Votes % 2008 833,365 172,136 20.7% 347,159 41.7% 314,070 37.7% 2010 607,700 82,655 13.6% 215,113 35.4% 309,932 51.0% 2012 786,522 88,848 11.3% 374,574 47.6% 323,100 41.1% 2014 504,381 51,012 10.1% 231,552 45.9% 221,817 44.0% Difference from 2010 -103,319 -31,643 -3.5% 16,439 10.5% -88,115 -7.0% Difference from 2012 -282,141 -37,836 -1.2% -143,022 -1.7% -101,283 2.9% Sources: “2014 Early & Absentee Vote Counts,” New Mexico Secretary of State, November 5, 2014; “Canvass of Returns of General Election Held on November 6, 2012 – State of New Mexico,” New Mexico Secretary of State, November 6, 2012; “Canvass of Returns of General Election Held on November 2, 2010 – State of New Mexico,” New Mexico Secretary of State, November 2, 2010; “Canvass of Returns of General Election Held on November 4, 2008 – State of New Mexico,” New Mexico Secretary of State, November 4, 2008.
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