Anthony H. Cordesman, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy The Gulf Military Balance in 2019: A Graphic Analysis Anthony H. Cordesman and Abdullah Toukan With the Assistance of Max Molot Working Paper: Please send comments to
[email protected] REVISED December 9, 2019 Photo: ARASH KHAMOUSHI/AFP/ Getty Images Introduction 2 The military balance in the Gulf region has become steadily more complex with time. Conventional forces have been been reshaped by massive arms transfers, and changes in major weapons, technology, and virtually every aspect of joint warfare, command and control, sensors, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems. Missile warfare is changing radically as diverse mixes of ballistic and cruise missiles, UAVs and UCAVs, and missiles are deployed. Precision-guided, conventionally armed missiles are becoming a key aspect of regional forces, and so are missile defenses. The threat of nuclear pro0liferation remains, and at least one state – Iran - is a declared chemical weapons power while the Assad regime in Syria has made repeated use of chemical weapons At the same time, asymmetric forces, “proxy” forces, and various forms of military advisory and support missions are playing a growing role in local conflicts and gray area operations. So are local militia and security forces – often divided within a given Gulf state by sect and ethnicity. Terrorist and extremist forces continue pose serious threats, as do political tensions and upheavals, and the weaknesses and failures of some regional governments to meet the needs of their people. The most serious sources of Gulf conflicts are now the tensions between Iran and the Arab Gulf states, and the role played by terrorists and extremists, but civil war and insurgencies remain an additional threat - as does the links between Iran, Syria, and the Hezbollah.