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Colliers Template RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT Montenegro 2017 Overview Summary Recent Trends Prognosis In the past decade Montenegro has shown considerable With the country directing its inflow of investments into growth, and many consider the country one of the fastest tourism, it is very likely that new structures will continue to be rising tourism markets in the world. With its stable economic built to accommodate the demands of the market. The new growth over the past few years, it is sure to continue to attract road infrastructure and air connections should allow not only foreign investments in the foreseeable future. The only a better and faster connection between the southern and downside of such trends is that development has largely been northern region, which would again present a valuable concentrated on retail and hospitality sectors, whereas the opportunity for new projects in the northern parts of the industrial market has been largely left in the backdrop. country, but this will largely depend on external factors. Economic Overview Summary & Prognosis Unemployment (% of active population) > Introduction: Montenegro is an upper middle income country, with a small open economy. The country is in 19.5% 18.0% 17.6% 17.1% transition towards a market based economy and integration 16.1% 15.3% into the EU. Steady progress has been made on key reforms geared towards EU integration. However, further structural and institutional changes are required. The economy continues to be over reliant on the state and unprofitable state owned companies are kept afloat by public finance. Unemployment and regional differences in 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 development are also key political and economic issues. Source: Montenegro Statistical Office > Key Economic Indicators are summarized in the following > Economic Performance: The real growth rate of GDP in table: the second quarter of 2018 was 4.9%, following a growth rate Economic Figures of 4.5% in the previous quarter. The average growth rate for EU countries at the time was 2.2%, and Montenegro has 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F remained as one of the strongest performers in the region and Actual Europe as a whole. While both goods and services exports Nominal grew, import is still strong, reflecting machinery for the GDP € 3,625 3,954 4,299 4.492F 4,692F highway, and tourism and energy investments, which are millions driving the expansion of the current account deficit. GDP Real GDP 3.4 2.9 4.7 2.8F 3.0F % Change Annual Growth Rate in Montenegro averaged 2.31% from Inflation 2001 until 2016, reaching an all-time high of 10.7% in the CPI Year 1.4 0.9 2.4 1.9F 1.8F fourth quarter of 2007 and a record low of -5.7% in the fourth End quarter of 2009. % of GDP Current Average monthly gross earnings (€/month) Account (13.3) (19.0) (20.2) (21.2)F (18.8)F Balance Foreign 765 Direct 17.1 9.8 10.3 10.4F 11.3F Investment External 748 163.1 166.8 169.8 173.5F 164.2F Debt Exports 3.9 (0.1) 1.8 1.7F 1.8F 727 726 725 723 Imports (6.6) (9.3) (4.1) (4.7)F (3.5)F Source: IMF GDP (annual var in %) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Montenegro Statistical Office -2.7% 1.8% 2.1% 3.0% > Economic Sectors: Tourism and the export of refined 3.4% 2.8% metals are major economic sectors. Significant natural resources include bauxite, hydroelectricity and, for tourism, the coast and climate. A large aluminum complex and much 3.5% of the financial sector have been privatized, and a large part of foreign direct investments focus on the hospitality industry. The following table indicates the composition of the economy by broad economic sector, based on employment by sector in September 2018. Source: IMF 2 Research and forecast report | 2018 | Montenegro | Colliers International Economic Overview Employed percentage of workforce per sector > Taxation: The tax system that was reformed in 2001, made Montenegro’s tax regime one of the most competitive in the region and Europe as a whole. The rates of significant taxes are as follows: 8.7% Agriculture > Personal Income Tax 9%. 18.8% > Corporation Tax: 9%. Industry > VAT: 21%, 7% (includes hotel accommodation) and 0%. > Withholding Tax: 9%. 72.5% > Social Security Charges: Employer 9.8% and Employee Services 24%. > Property tax is levied at proportional rates from between 0.1% and 1.0%. Source: Montenegro Statistical Office, Labor Force Survey 2rd Q2018 > Property transfer tax of 3% of the property’s value is > Foreign Trade: Major export partners in Montenegro in payable by the buyer. 2018 were Serbia (around 21.2% of total exports), Hungary (12.7%) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (7.6%). The major import partners were Serbia (19.6% of total imports), China Prognosis (10.7%) and Germany (8.8%). Montenegro has significant growth potential. GDP grew by > Exchange Rate: Montenegro adopted the German mark 4.7% in 2017 (IMF forecasts were set at 2.5%) and is forecast in 1999, then the euro on its introduction in 2002 by the IMF to grow by 2.8% in 2018 and 3.0% in 2019. The rate of growth in the medium to long term will be influenced Year End 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 by progress towards membership of the EU and is dependent on addressing a number of challenges. EBRD and the US$ per € 1.37 1.23 1.15 1.11 1.07 1.14 government have identified the following challenges to be Russian 45.3 72.3 68.07 74.14 63.9 74.9 addressed: Rubles/ € > Diversifying and expanding the economic base through Source: European Central Bank increased competitiveness, including targeted support to > Employment: 85.5% of the total economically active work SMEs in sectors with growth potential and further force (280,700) was in employment and 14.4% were strengthening of the financial system. unemployed as of September 2018. Employment of > Supporting sustainable tourism, property and associated expatriates is regulated by the Law on Employment of environmental and infrastructure needs. The tourism Foreign Citizens. For an expatriate employee a work permit, sector is a major potential driver of economic growth. This permanent or temporary residence permit and an involves addressing the lack of institutional and employment contract are obligatory. The Government has an infrastructure, and avoiding the environmental risks of annual maximum quota of foreigners to be employed. Foreign further tourism development. employees are entitled to equal treatment as local employees. > Introducing energy security and efficiency, and regional integration of energy markets. 3 Research and forecast report | 2018 | Montenegro | Colliers International Tourism Overview Tourist arrivals and overnight stays, total Summary 2013-2017 11,953 Tourism is a crucial economic sector in Montenegro. World 11,055 11,250 9,412 9,554 Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) estimated that tourism accounts in excess of 10% of total GDP, although local estimates consider it to be higher. Tourism policies and strategies, development, operations and marketing are the 1,492 1,517 1,713 1,814 2,000 Thousands responsibility of the Ministry of Sustainable Development and Tourism, with the National Tourism Organization responsible for planning and implementation tourism strategies, promotion and enhancing the tourism product. Local tourism organizations are active in 19 municipalities. The Tourism Arrivals Overnight stays Development Strategy to 2020, which was formulated in 2008 with international expert assistance, guides all aspects of Tourist Arrivals and Nights: Foreign tourism (nights and tourism and its development. This followed a tourism master arrivals) has grown annually, with the exception of 2009 when plan that was adopted by government in 2001. tourist nights declined, due to the global economic crisis. Domestic tourism has fluctuated, but has declined in recent Montenegro’s tourism product is subdivided into six clusters, years. Nevertheless, the number of overnight stays in whose scenic and cultural traits differ from each other, in the Montenegro has grown steadily over the years, with a large Tourism Strategy. increase in 2016, a trend that continued in 2017 and 2018. > The rocky coastline from Lustica to Ulcinj, with many bays Accommodation is divided in two groups, collective and and beaches, is the major beach tourism destination and private accommodation. At this moment, no reliable includes Budva. information is available for the total number of tourist arrivals and nights spent in 2018, but monthly reports from the > Ulcinj, which has an expansive sandy beach, with Ada Statistical Office indicate further growth for the summer Bojana and Valdanos. season (from May to September) by 10.9% in the number of > The Bay of Kotor, a cultural area surrounded by cliffs, arrivals, and 6.9% in the number of nights spent. together with Tivat Bay and the Lustica peninsula. The natural Collective 2014 2015 2016 2017 and cultural-historic features of the Kotor region are a Accommodation UNESCO World Heritage Site. Tourist Arrivals 000s > Cetinje, of historic significance, and Skadar Lake, an area Foreign 595 636 708 843 of natural beauty. Domestic 81 98 101 112 > Durmitor and Sinjajevina, mountainous regions with the Total 676 733 808 955 Tara canyon and the national park. Durmitor National Park is Tourist Arrivals % Growth a UNESCO World heritage Site. (Decline) Foreign 4.8 6.8 11.3 19.0 > Bjelasica, Komovi and Prokletije, mountainous areas with Domestic (4.4) 20.9 3.0 10.8 national parks, monasteries and mosques. Total (2.6) 8.5 10.2 18.1 Official statistics cover tourists staying in registered tourist Tourist Nights 000s accommodation. However, this understates tourism demand Foreign 2,720 2,843 3,114 3,459 because they exclude tourists in unregistered Domestic 364 403 408 431 accommodation (the “grey” market).
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