Capitol Success Group’s Budget Update and 2010 Election Guide

By the Capitol Success Group www.CapitolSuccess.com CO Budget update (September 20, 2010 )

Legislative Council Forecast OSPB Revenue Forecast 2010-11 Budget (July 1, 2010- June 2010-11 Budget (July 1, 2010- June 30, 2011) 30,Reductions 2011) needed to balance with a 2% Reduction needed to balance with a 2% reserve: reserve: $58.5 Million $267.2 Million The General Assembly will amend the 2010-11 Budget (Long Bill) through Governor Ritter plans to release a plan for reductions in late October. negative supplementals during the 2011 Session.

2011-12 Budget (July 1, 2011- June 30, 2012) – This will be the 2011 Long Bill The JBC will begin hearings on the 2011-12 Budget November 10, 2010 A $900 million to $1.1 billion shortfall is expected to FY2011-12

•The General Assembly will need to find $200 million to fund the required 4% reserve. •Expected inflation and caseload growth $300 million •Some of the “one-time” sources of money that will not receive next year. (Totaling an estimated 754.7 million) •$363.6 million in federal stimulus in Medicaid- •$96 million of Amend. 35 tobacco tax revenue- •$89.2 million used for higher education- Estimates taken from Leg Council’s Sept. 2010 •$3.9 million for federal child welfare stimulus. Revenue Forecast. US Senate Candidates A Quick Look at State-wide Races in Colorado Ken Buck (R) Michael Bennet (D) Weld County D.A. U.S. Senator

Colorado Gubernatorial Candidates Colorado Attorney General

Dan Maes(R) Tom Tancrado (C) John Colorado Business Frm. US Congressman Hickenlooper(D) John Suthers (R) Stan Garnett (D) Owner Mayor of Incumbent Boulder County D.A. Colorado Secretary of State

Scott Gessler (R) Bernie Buscher (D) (R) Cary Kennedy Attorney Incumbent CEO of a real estate company Incumbent Current Makeup of the Colorado State Senate (21 Democrats - 14 Republicans) 19 Seats in Play in 2010 President 18 Seats needed for Majority Shaffer Democrats Republicans

Scheffe Boyd Newell Foster Carroll White King Cadman l

Schulties Kopp 18 D 26 D Heath Hodge Hudak Bacon Mitchell Spence 31 U 33 U 56 R 39 R

Steadman Johnston Romer Brophy Harvey Penry Lundburg 45 D 56 D 43 D 51 R 46 R 43 R 40 R Williams 37 U 32 U 34 U 29 U 31 U 34 U 34 U 16 R 11 R 21 R 21 D 23 D 22 D 25 D

Tochtrop Guzman Giron *Keller Renfro *Kester 37 D 54 D 48D 36 D 39 R 37 R 37 U 33 U 29U 35 U 35 U 35 D 25 R 12 R 23R 29 R 26 D 28 U

Democrats need keep the seats above and win at least one of the seats below to remain in control (Republicans need to win 4 seats to win the majority) *Morse *Schwartz *Gibbs *Whitehead 37 U 34 D 37 U 38 R X = Not up for election in 2010 34 D 34 R 31 D 33 U * = Races to watch (Turn page over for more 29 R 32 U 31 R 28 D information) Seat Currently CO Senate Races to Watch in 2010 Held by Democrats Republicans

Kester (R) Gloria Stultz (D) (R) District 2- Is a small business owner 37 R BACA,BENT,CROWLEY, CUSTER, Holds a degree in 35 D FREMONT, HUERFANO, LAS ANIMAS, horticulture and runs the and serves on the Canon 28 U OTERO, AND PUEBLO COUNTIES Canon City Farmer’s City City Council. Market Schwartz (D) Sen. Gail Schwartz (D) (R) 34 D District 5 – Alamosa, Chafee, Former CU Regent and Aerospace engineer and a 34 R Conejos, Costilla, Delta, Gunnison, current chair of Local Gov non-profit and small 32 U Hinsdale, Mineral, Pitkin, Rio Grande, Saguache counties Committee. business owner.

Whitehead (D) (D) (R) 38 R District 6- Archulea, Dolores, La Civil engineer that focuses on Current State 33 U Plata, Montezuma, Montrose, Ouray, Sa water issues. Appointed to fill Representative and an 28 D n Juan, San Miguel counties Sen. Isgar’s vacancy. attorney in Durango. Morse (D) Sen. John Morse, Majority (R) 37 U Leader (D) Air Force Academy Graduate, District 11- El Paso County 34 D Holds a PHD and is a former holds a PHD and runs a non- 29 R JBC Member. profit in Colorado Springs.

Gibbs (D) Tim Leonard (R) 37 U (D) District 16- Clear Creek, Real estate Developer with 31 D Boulder, Jefferson, Summit Counties Former nurse and current 31 R Gilpin County an MBA from DU Commissioner Keller (D) John Odom (R) District 20- JEFFERSON 36 D CHERI JAHN (D) Small business owner COUNTY & THE CITIES OF GOLDEN, Former state representative 35 U ARVADA, EDGEWATER, AND WHEAT and former legislative 29 R RIDGE and small business owner. aide at the CO Capitol. Visit www.CapitolSuccess.com “Election 2010” to learn more about the candidates. Current Makeup of the Colorado State House (37 Democrats - 27 Republicans – 1 Unaffiliated) 65 Seats in Play in 2010 Speaker Carroll Democrats 33 Seats needed for Majority Republicans May

Ferrandino Judd Fisher McCann Schafer Pace B. Gardner Stephens Looper Liston Waller Lambert

Kagan Frangas Hullinghorst Weissmann Vigil Labuda Vaad Murry McNulty Acree Gerou Balmer

Bradfor Ryden Middelton Court Miklosi Levy C. Gardner Casso J. Kerr Sonnenberg d Baumgardner Massey

Todd Peniston McKinley Soper Pommer * Andy Kerr Tipton Summers Swalm Nikkel DelGrosso S. King

*Scanlan * Solano *Kefalas *Riesberg *Tyler *Merrifield *Roberts *Priola

*Curry (U) * = Races to watch (Turn page over for more information)

Democrats need to win the seats above and at least one of the seats below to keep the majority. (Republicans need to win 6 seats for the majority) *Apuan *Benefield *Primavera *Galiardi *McFadyen *Rice 37 U 35 U 37 U 35 R 38 D 38 R Visit www.CapitolSuccess.com 34 D 33 D 32 R 33 U 32 R 31 D “Election 2010” to learn more about 28 R 32 R 30 D 31 D 30 U 31 U the candidates. CO House Races to Watch in 2010 Visit www.CapitolSuccess.com “Election 2010” to learn more about the candidates. Primavera Merrifield HOUSE DISTRICT 33- (ADAMS, BOUNDER WELD, AND THE CITY AND HOUSE DISTRICT 18 – (DOWNTOWN COLORADO SPRINGS AND 37 U COUNTY OF BROOMFIELD) 37 U MANITOU SPRINGS) 32 R D- 34 D D- Stanford Peter Lee 30 D R- Donald Beezley 27 R R- Karen Cullen Galiardi Andy Kerr 35 R HOUSE DISTRICT 27- ( JEFFERSON COUNTY - AURORA) 36 U HOUSE DISTRICT 26-( JEFFERSON COUNTY - LAKEWOOD) D- Sara Gagliardi D- Andy Kerr 33 U 34 D R- Mark Barrington 31 D R- 30 R

Benefield HOUSE DISTRICT 29- (NORTH JEFFERSON COUNTY - WESTMINSTER AND Kefalas HOUSE DISTRICT 52- (LARIMER COUNTY - HALF OF FT. 35 U ARVADA) 36 U COLLINS) 33 D D- Debbie Benefield 33 D D- R- Bob Morain 32 R R- Robert Ramirez 30 R

Apuan HOUSE DISTRICT 17 - (SOUTH COLORADO SPRINGS & FT. Scanlan HOUSE DISTRICT 56 (EAGLE, LAKE, AND SUMMIT COUNTIES - 37 U CARSON) 42 U VAIL, FRISCO, LEADVILLE) 34 D D- Dennis Apuan 30 D D- 28 R R- Mark Barker 27 R R- Debra Irvine

McFadyen HOUSE DISTRICT 47 –(PARTS OF FREMONT COUNTY AND RURAL Riesberg HOUSE DISTRICT 50 (WELD COUNTY - GREELEY) 38 D PUEBLO COUNTY - PUEBLO WEST & PARTS OF PUEBLO 38 U D- James Riesberg D- Carole Partin 32 R 32 D R- Robert Boswell 30 U R- Keith Swedfeger 29 R Solano Priola(R) 37 U HOUSE DISTRICT 31 – (ADAMS COUNTY - THORNTON AND 25 R HOUSE DISTRICT 30 (Aurora and Brighton) NORTHGLENN) D- Laura Huerta 33 D D- Judy Solano 36 U R- 30 R R- Tom Janich 37 D Tyler HOUSE DISTRICT 23- (JEFFERSON COUNTY - GOLDEN, EDGEWATER, AND Roberts (R) HOUSE DISTRICT 59 - (ARCHULETA, LA PLATA, MONTEZUMA, 36 U LAKEWOOD) 36 R SAN JUAN COUNTIES - DURANGO, CORTEZ, PAGOSA SPRINGS) 35 D D- Max Tyler 32 U D- Brian O’Donnell 29 R R- Edgar Johansson 31 D R- J Paul Brown HOUSE DISTRICT 61-(EAGLE, GARFIELD, GUNNISON, AND PITKIN Rice HOUSE DISTRICT 38 (ARAPAHOE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES - Curry (U) 38 R 41 U COUNTIES - GLENWOOD SPRINGS, ASPEN, GUNNISON) LITTLETON AND GREENWOOD VILLAGE) D- Roger Wilson 31 D D- Joe Rice 32D R- Luke Korkowski 31 U R- Kahlene Conti 26R U- Kathleen Curry www.CapitolSuccess.com Senate Majority Leadership if Democrats Keep the Majority

Senator Brandon Shaffer Sen. Betty Boyd (Dist 17- Longmont, Boulder, Erie, Lafayette, Lewisville) (Dist 21- Jeff Co, Lakewood) Term Limit: 2012 Term Limit: 2014 Majority Leader Caucus Chair Asst. Majority Leader

Senator John Morse Senator Suzann Williams Sen. Lois Tochtrop (Dist 11- El Paso County) (Dist 28- Aurora) (Dist 24- Thornton) Term Limit: 2014 Term Limit: 2012 Term Limit: 2014 Current Senate Minority Leadership if Democrats Keep the Majority Minority Leader Asst. Minority Leader

Term Limit: 2014

Term Limit: 2018 Senator Senator Mike Kopp (Dist 1- Cheyenne, Elbert, Kiowa, Kit Carson, Lincoln, Logan, Morgan, (Dist 22- Littelton) Philips, Prowers, Sedgwick, Washington, Yuma Counties) Caucus Chair Minority Whip

Term Limit: 2014

Term Limit: 2012

Senator Senator (Dist 10- El Paso) (Dist 27- Centennial, Greenwood Village, Foxfield, Aurora, Arapahoe County) Possible JBC Members if Democrats Keep the Majority Democrats Republicans

Chair?

Sen. Schwartz(D) Sen. White (R) Sen. Sen. Hodge (D) Rep. Kent (Dist.5 Alamosa, Chafee, Conejos, ( Dist 8- Eagle, Garfield, (D) Costilla, Delta, Gunnison, Hinsdale, (Adams Co.) Lambert (R) Mineral, Pitkin, Rio Grande, Jackson, Moffat, Rio (Dist 31-Denver .) Saguache) (Dist 14- El Blanco, and Routt Paso County) Counties)

Rep. Hullinghourst (D) Rep. Ferrandino (D) (Dist 10- Boulder) (Dist 2- West Central Rep. Gerou (R) Denver) (Dist. 25- Jefferson Co)

Seats are not safe or confirmed until after the Election & Leadership Elections. www.CapitolSuccess.com House and Senate HHS Committees

Sen. Betty Boyd (D) (Dist 21- Jeff Co, Lakewood)

Rep. Riesberg (D) (Dist 50- Greeley) Ballot Initiatives and Referendums Amendment 60, 61 and Prop. 101 “The Bad 3”

Amendment 60 would amend the state Constitution to make sweeping changes to Colorado's property tax laws. These changes would significantly impact funding for public schools and local services.

Amendment 61 would ban the use of any kind of debt by the state of Colorado and greatly limit the amount of debt issued by local governments. We believe Colorado would become the only state in the nation without authority to issue debt.

Proposition 101 is intended to repeal Referendum C; establish new, much lower limits on state and local spending; reinstate the TABOR ratchet effect; and cut state and local public services by a total of more than $2 billion a year. www.bellpolicy.org Prop. 102 “Setting Bail and Type of Bonds”

Changes state law so that only those arrested for first offenses that are non-violent misdemeanors may be released to pretrial services programs instead of posting secured bonds.

Amendment 63 “Health Care Choice”

Amends the state constitution to prohibit the state from requiring participation in pubic or private health plans and from restricting direct payment for health services

www.bellpolicy.org