Capitol Success Group’s Budget Update and 2010 Election Guide By the Capitol Success Group www.CapitolSuccess.com CO Budget update (September 20, 2010 ) Legislative Council Forecast OSPB Revenue Forecast 2010-11 Budget (July 1, 2010- June 2010-11 Budget (July 1, 2010- June 30, 2011) 30,Reductions 2011) needed to balance with a 2% Reduction needed to balance with a 2% reserve: reserve: $58.5 Million $267.2 Million The General Assembly will amend the 2010-11 Budget (Long Bill) through Governor Ritter plans to release a plan for reductions in late October. negative supplementals during the 2011 Session. 2011-12 Budget (July 1, 2011- June 30, 2012) – This will be the 2011 Long Bill The JBC will begin hearings on the 2011-12 Budget November 10, 2010 A $900 million to $1.1 billion shortfall is expected to FY2011-12 •The General Assembly will need to find $200 million to fund the required 4% reserve. •Expected inflation and caseload growth $300 million •Some of the “one-time” sources of money that Colorado will not receive next year. (Totaling an estimated 754.7 million) •$363.6 million in federal stimulus in Medicaid- •$96 million of Amend. 35 tobacco tax revenue- •$89.2 million used for higher education- Estimates taken from Leg Council’s Sept. 2010 •$3.9 million for federal child welfare stimulus. Revenue Forecast. US Senate Candidates A Quick Look at State-wide Races in Colorado Ken Buck (R) Michael Bennet (D) Weld County D.A. U.S. Senator Colorado Gubernatorial Candidates Colorado Attorney General Dan Maes(R) Tom Tancrado (C) John Colorado Business Frm. US Congressman Hickenlooper(D) John Suthers (R) Stan Garnett (D) Owner Mayor of Denver Incumbent Boulder County D.A. Colorado Secretary of State Colorado State Treasurer Scott Gessler (R) Bernie Buscher (D) Walker Stapleton (R) Cary Kennedy Attorney Incumbent CEO of a real estate company Incumbent Current Makeup of the Colorado State Senate (21 Democrats - 14 Republicans) 19 Seats in Play in 2010 President 18 Seats needed for Majority Shaffer Democrats Republicans Scheffe Boyd Newell Foster Carroll White King Cadman l Schulties Kopp 18 D 26 D Heath Hodge Hudak Bacon Mitchell Spence 31 U 33 U 56 R 39 R Steadman Johnston Romer Brophy Harvey Penry Lundburg 45 D 56 D 43 D 51 R 46 R 43 R 40 R Williams 37 U 32 U 34 U 29 U 31 U 34 U 34 U 16 R 11 R 21 R 21 D 23 D 22 D 25 D Tochtrop Guzman Giron *Keller Renfro *Kester 37 D 54 D 48D 36 D 39 R 37 R 37 U 33 U 29U 35 U 35 U 35 D 25 R 12 R 23R 29 R 26 D 28 U Democrats need keep the seats above and win at least one of the seats below to remain in control (Republicans need to win 4 seats to win the majority) *Morse *Schwartz *Gibbs *Whitehead 37 U 34 D 37 U 38 R X = Not up for election in 2010 34 D 34 R 31 D 33 U * = Races to watch (Turn page over for more 29 R 32 U 31 R 28 D information) Seat Currently CO Senate Races to Watch in 2010 Held by Democrats Republicans Kester (R) Gloria Stultz (D) KEVIN GRANTHAM (R) District 2- Is a small business owner 37 R BACA,BENT,CROWLEY, CUSTER, Holds a degree in 35 D FREMONT, HUERFANO, LAS ANIMAS, horticulture and runs the and serves on the Canon 28 U OTERO, AND PUEBLO COUNTIES Canon City Farmer’s City City Council. Market Schwartz (D) Sen. Gail Schwartz (D) Bob Rankin (R) 34 D District 5 – Alamosa, Chafee, Former CU Regent and Aerospace engineer and a 34 R Conejos, Costilla, Delta, Gunnison, current chair of Local Gov non-profit and small 32 U Hinsdale, Mineral, Pitkin, Rio Grande, Saguache counties Committee. business owner. Whitehead (D) Bruce Whitehead (D) Ellen Roberts (R) 38 R District 6- Archulea, Dolores, La Civil engineer that focuses on Current State 33 U Plata, Montezuma, Montrose, Ouray, Sa water issues. Appointed to fill Representative and an 28 D n Juan, San Miguel counties Sen. Isgar’s vacancy. attorney in Durango. Morse (D) Sen. John Morse, Majority Owen Hill (R) 37 U Leader (D) Air Force Academy Graduate, District 11- El Paso County 34 D Holds a PHD and is a former holds a PHD and runs a non- 29 R JBC Member. profit in Colorado Springs. Gibbs (D) Tim Leonard (R) 37 U Jeanne Nicholson (D) District 16- Clear Creek, Real estate Developer with 31 D Boulder, Jefferson, Summit Counties Former nurse and current 31 R Gilpin County an MBA from DU Commissioner Keller (D) John Odom (R) District 20- JEFFERSON 36 D CHERI JAHN (D) Small business owner COUNTY & THE CITIES OF GOLDEN, Former state representative 35 U ARVADA, EDGEWATER, AND WHEAT and former legislative 29 R RIDGE and small business owner. aide at the CO Capitol. Visit www.CapitolSuccess.com “Election 2010” to learn more about the candidates. Current Makeup of the Colorado State House (37 Democrats - 27 Republicans – 1 Unaffiliated) 65 Seats in Play in 2010 Speaker Carroll Democrats 33 Seats needed for Majority Republicans May Ferrandino Judd Fisher McCann Schafer Pace B. Gardner Stephens Looper Liston Waller Lambert Kagan Frangas Hullinghorst Weissmann Vigil Labuda Vaad Murry McNulty Acree Gerou Balmer Bradfor Ryden Middelton Court Miklosi Levy C. Gardner Casso J. Kerr Sonnenberg d Baumgardner Massey Todd Peniston McKinley Soper Pommer * Andy Kerr Tipton Summers Swalm Nikkel DelGrosso S. King *Scanlan * Solano *Kefalas *Riesberg *Tyler *Merrifield *Roberts *Priola *Curry (U) * = Races to watch (Turn page over for more information) Democrats need to win the seats above and at least one of the seats below to keep the majority. (Republicans need to win 6 seats for the majority) *Apuan *Benefield *Primavera *Galiardi *McFadyen *Rice 37 U 35 U 37 U 35 R 38 D 38 R Visit www.CapitolSuccess.com 34 D 33 D 32 R 33 U 32 R 31 D “Election 2010” to learn more about 28 R 32 R 30 D 31 D 30 U 31 U the candidates. CO House Races to Watch in 2010 Visit www.CapitolSuccess.com “Election 2010” to learn more about the candidates. Primavera Merrifield HOUSE DISTRICT 33- (ADAMS, BOUNDER WELD, AND THE CITY AND HOUSE DISTRICT 18 – (DOWNTOWN COLORADO SPRINGS AND 37 U COUNTY OF BROOMFIELD) 37 U MANITOU SPRINGS) 32 R D- Dianne Primavera 34 D D- Stanford Peter Lee 30 D R- Donald Beezley 27 R R- Karen Cullen Galiardi Andy Kerr 35 R HOUSE DISTRICT 27- ( JEFFERSON COUNTY - AURORA) 36 U HOUSE DISTRICT 26-( JEFFERSON COUNTY - LAKEWOOD) D- Sara Gagliardi D- Andy Kerr 33 U 34 D R- Mark Barrington 31 D R-Libby Szabo 30 R Benefield HOUSE DISTRICT 29- (NORTH JEFFERSON COUNTY - WESTMINSTER AND Kefalas HOUSE DISTRICT 52- (LARIMER COUNTY - HALF OF FT. 35 U ARVADA) 36 U COLLINS) 33 D D- Debbie Benefield 33 D D- John Kefalas R- Bob Morain 32 R R- Robert Ramirez 30 R Apuan HOUSE DISTRICT 17 - (SOUTH COLORADO SPRINGS & FT. Scanlan HOUSE DISTRICT 56 (EAGLE, LAKE, AND SUMMIT COUNTIES - 37 U CARSON) 42 U VAIL, FRISCO, LEADVILLE) 34 D D- Dennis Apuan 30 D D- Christine Scanlan 28 R R- Mark Barker 27 R R- Debra Irvine McFadyen HOUSE DISTRICT 47 –(PARTS OF FREMONT COUNTY AND RURAL Riesberg HOUSE DISTRICT 50 (WELD COUNTY - GREELEY) 38 D PUEBLO COUNTY - PUEBLO WEST & PARTS OF PUEBLO 38 U D- James Riesberg D- Carole Partin 32 R 32 D R- Robert Boswell 30 U R- Keith Swedfeger 29 R Solano Priola(R) 37 U HOUSE DISTRICT 31 – (ADAMS COUNTY - THORNTON AND 25 R HOUSE DISTRICT 30 (Aurora and Brighton) NORTHGLENN) D- Laura Huerta 33 D D- Judy Solano 36 U R- Kevin Priola 30 R R- Tom Janich 37 D Tyler HOUSE DISTRICT 23- (JEFFERSON COUNTY - GOLDEN, EDGEWATER, AND Roberts (R) HOUSE DISTRICT 59 - (ARCHULETA, LA PLATA, MONTEZUMA, 36 U LAKEWOOD) 36 R SAN JUAN COUNTIES - DURANGO, CORTEZ, PAGOSA SPRINGS) 35 D D- Max Tyler 32 U D- Brian O’Donnell 29 R R- Edgar Johansson 31 D R- J Paul Brown HOUSE DISTRICT 61-(EAGLE, GARFIELD, GUNNISON, AND PITKIN Rice HOUSE DISTRICT 38 (ARAPAHOE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES - Curry (U) 38 R 41 U COUNTIES - GLENWOOD SPRINGS, ASPEN, GUNNISON) LITTLETON AND GREENWOOD VILLAGE) D- Roger Wilson 31 D D- Joe Rice 32D R- Luke Korkowski 31 U R- Kahlene Conti 26R U- Kathleen Curry www.CapitolSuccess.com Senate Majority Leadership if Democrats Keep the Majority Senator Brandon Shaffer Sen. Betty Boyd (Dist 17- Longmont, Boulder, Erie, Lafayette, Lewisville) (Dist 21- Jeff Co, Lakewood) Term Limit: 2012 Term Limit: 2014 Majority Leader Caucus Chair Asst. Majority Leader Senator John Morse Senator Suzann Williams Sen. Lois Tochtrop (Dist 11- El Paso County) (Dist 28- Aurora) (Dist 24- Thornton) Term Limit: 2014 Term Limit: 2012 Term Limit: 2014 Current Senate Minority Leadership if Democrats Keep the Majority Minority Leader Asst. Minority Leader Term Limit: 2014 Term Limit: 2018 Senator Greg Brophy Senator Mike Kopp (Dist 1- Cheyenne, Elbert, Kiowa, Kit Carson, Lincoln, Logan, Morgan, (Dist 22- Littelton) Philips, Prowers, Sedgwick, Washington, Yuma Counties) Caucus Chair Minority Whip Term Limit: 2014 Term Limit: 2012 Senator Bill Cadman Senator Nancy Spence (Dist 10- El Paso) (Dist 27- Centennial, Greenwood Village, Foxfield, Aurora, Arapahoe County) Possible JBC Members if Democrats Keep the Majority Democrats Republicans Chair? Sen. Schwartz(D) Sen. White (R) Sen. Pat Steadman Sen. Hodge (D) Rep. Kent (Dist.5 Alamosa, Chafee, Conejos, ( Dist 8- Eagle, Garfield, (D) Costilla, Delta, Gunnison, Hinsdale, (Adams Co.) Lambert (R) Mineral, Pitkin, Rio Grande, Jackson, Moffat, Rio (Dist 31-Denver .) Saguache) (Dist 14- El Blanco, and Routt Paso County) Counties) Rep.