Articles and Notes of Lawrence J. Lau
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Economic Choices
ECONOMIC CHOICES Daniel McFadden* This Nobel lecture discusses the microeconometric analysis of choice behavior of consumers who face discrete economic alternatives. Before the 1960's, economists used consumer theory mostly as a logical tool, to explore conceptually the properties of alternative market organizations and economic policies. When the theory was applied empirically, it was to market-level or national-accounts-level data. In these applications, the theory was usually developed in terms of a representative agent, with market-level behavior given by the representative agent’s behavior writ large. When observations deviated from those implied by the representative agent theory, these differences were swept into an additive disturbance and attributed to data measurement errors, rather than to unobserved factors within or across individual agents. In statistical language, traditional consumer theory placed structural restrictions on mean behavior, but the distribution of responses about their mean was not tied to the theory. In the 1960's, rapidly increasing availability of survey data on individual behavior, and the advent of digital computers that could analyze these data, focused attention on the variations in demand across individuals. It became important to explain and model these variations as part of consumer theory, rather than as ad hoc disturbances. This was particularly obvious for discrete choices, such as transportation mode or occupation. The solution to this problem has led to the tools we have today for microeconometric analysis of choice behavior. I will first give a brief history of the development of this subject, and place my own contributions in context. After that, I will discuss in some detail more recent developments in the economic theory of choice, and modifications to this theory that are being forced by experimental evidence from cognitive psychology. -
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Zvi Griliches and the Economics of Technology Diffusion: Linking Innovation Adoption, Lagged Investments, and Productivity Growth
This work is distributed as a Discussion Paper by the STANFORD INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH SIEPR Discussion Paper No. 15-005 Zvi Griliches and the Economics of Technology Diffusion: Linking innovation adoption, lagged investments, and productivity growth By Paul A. David Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305 (650) 725-1874 The Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research at Stanford University supports research bearing on economic and public policy issues. The SIEPR Discussion Paper Series reports on research and policy analysis conducted by researchers affiliated with the Institute. Working papers in this series reflect the views of the authors and not necessarily those of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research or Stanford University Zvi Griliches and the Economics of Technology Diffusion: Linking innovation adoption, lagged investments, and productivity growth By Paul A. David First version: August 2003 Second version: December 2005 Third version: March 31 2009 Fourth version: March 20, 2011 This version: April 4, 2015 Acknowledgements The present version is a revision of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) Discussion Paper No. 10‐029 (March), 2011. The first version of this work was presented to the Conference on R&D, Education and Productivity, held in Memory of Zvi Griliches (1930 –1999) on 25‐27th, August 2003 at CarrJ des Sciences, Ministère de la Recherche, Paris, France. Gabriel Goddard furnished characteristically swift and accurate assistance with the simulations, and the graphics based upon them that appear in Section 4. I am grateful to Wesley Cohen for his perceptive discussion of the conference version, particularly in regard to the supply‐side facet of Griliches’ 1957 article in Econometrica. -
Advanced Econometrics Methods II Outline of the Course
Advanced Econometrics Methods II Outline of the Course Joan Llull Advanced Econometric Methods II Master in Economics and Finance Barcelona GSE Chapter 1: Panel Data I. Introduction II. Static Models A. The Fixed Effects Model. Within Groups Estimation B. The Random Effects Model. Error Components C. Testing for Correlated Individual Effects III. Dynamic Models A. Autoregressive Models with Individual Effects B. Difference GMM Estimation C. System GMM Estimation D. Specification Tests References: Sargan(1958), Balestra and Nerlove(1966), Hausman(1978), Cham- berlain(1984), Amemiya(1985), Anderson and Hsiao(1981, 1982), Hansen(1982), Arellano and Bond(1991), Arellano and Bover(1995), Arellano and Honor´e (2001), Wooldridge(2002), Arellano(2003), Cameron and Trivedi(2005), Wind- meijer(2005) Chapter 2: Discrete Choice I. Binary Outcome Models A. Introduction B. The Linear Probability Model C. The General Binary Outcome Model Maximum Likelihood Estimation Asymptotic properties Marginal effects D. The Logit Model 1 E. The Probit Model F. Latent Variable Representation Index function model (Additive) Random utility model II. Multinomial Models A. Multinomial Outcomes B. The General Multinomial Model Maximum Likelihood estimation Asymptotic properties Marginal effects C. The Logit Model The Multinomial Logit (MNL) The Conditional Logit (CL) D. Latent Variable Representation E. Relaxing the Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives Assumption The Nested Logit (NL) Random Parameters Logit (RPL) Multinomial Probit (MNP) F. Ordered Outcomes III. Endogenous Variables A. Probit with Continuous Endogenous Regressor B. Probit with Binary Endogenous Regressor C. Moment Estimation IV. Binary Models for Panel Datas References: McFadden(1973, 1974, 1984), Manski and McFadden(1981), Amemiya (1985), Wooldridge(2002), Cameron and Trivedi(2005), Arellano and Bonhomme (2011) Chapter 3: Dynamic Discrete Choice Models I: Full Solution Approaches I. -
Front Matter, R&D, Patents, and Productivity
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: R & D, Patents, and Productivity Volume Author/Editor: Zvi Griliches, ed. Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press Volume ISBN: 0-226-30884-7 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/gril84-1 Publication Date: 1984 Chapter Title: Front matter, R&D, Patents, and Productivity Chapter Author: Zvi Griliches Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c10041 Chapter pages in book: (p. -13 - 0) R&D, Patents, and Productivity A National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report R&D, Patents, and Productivity Edited by Zvi Griliches The University of Chicago Press Chicago and London The University ofChicago Press, Chicago 60637 The University of Chicago Press, Ltd. , London © 1984 by the National Bureau ofEconomic Research All rights reserved. Published 1984 Paperback edition 1987 Printed in the United States ofAmerica 9695 9493 9291 9089 88 87 6543 2 LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOGING IN PUBLICATION DATA Main entry under title: R&D, patents, and productivity. Papers presented at a conference held in Lenox, Mass., in the fall of 1981, and organized by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Includes indexes. 1. Research, Industrial-United States-Congresses. 2. Patents-United States-Congresses. 3. Industrial productivity-United States-Congresses. I. Griliches, Zvi, 1930- II. National Bureau of Economic Research. III. Title: Rand D, patents, and productivity. HD30.42.U5R2 1984 338' .06 83-18121 ISBN 0-226-30883-9 (cloth); 0-226-30844-7 (paper) National Bureau of Economic Research Officers Walter W. Heller, chairman Franklin A. -
Studies in Energy and the American Economy Productivity Easure1ent Using Capital Asset Valuation to Adjust for Variations in U
/i / I I STUDIES IN ENERGY AND THE AMERICAN ECONOMY PRODUCTIVITY EASURE1ENT USING CAPITAL ASSET VALUATION TO ADJUST FOR VARIATIONS IN UTILIZATION* by Ernst R. Berndt IXL-ssacts e I.-Is->, . .J.,-, -Y Melvyn A. Fuss University of Toronto September 1981 Discussion Paper No. 12 MIT-EL 81-067WP Research supported by the Department of Energy, under Contract EX-76-A-01-2295, Task Order 67, is gratefully acknowledged. This paper was also released as Working Paper No. 8125, Institute for Policy Analysis, University of Toronto. *An earlier version was presented at the econometric Society Summer Meetings, San Diego, California, June 24-27, 1981. We wish to thank Bob Russell for his penetrating comments as the official discussant. NOTICE This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the Department of Energy. Neither the United States nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, expressed or implied, or assumes any legal liability or respon- sibility for any third party's use or the results of such use of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed in this report, or represents that its use by such third party would not infringe privately owned rights. Abstract Although a great deal of empirical research on productivity measurement has taken place in the last decade, one issue remaining particularly controversial and decisive is the manner by which one adjusts the productivity residual for variations in capital and capacity utilization. In this paper we use the Marshallian framework of a short run production or cost function with certain inputs quasi-fixed to provide a theoretical basis for accounting for variations in utilization. -
Review of Cord and Hammond, Eds. Milton Friedman: Contributions to Economics and Public Policy Arthur M
University of Nebraska at Omaha DigitalCommons@UNO Economics Faculty Publications Department of Economics 2017 Review of Cord and Hammond, eds. Milton Friedman: Contributions to Economics and Public Policy Arthur M. Diamond Jr. University of Nebraska at Omaha, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.unomaha.edu/econrealestatefacpub Part of the Economics Commons Recommended Citation Diamond, Arthur M. Jr., "Review of Cord and Hammond, eds. Milton Friedman: Contributions to Economics and Public Policy" (2017). Economics Faculty Publications. 30. https://digitalcommons.unomaha.edu/econrealestatefacpub/30 This Book Review is brought to you for free and open access by the Department of Economics at DigitalCommons@UNO. It has been accepted for inclusion in Economics Faculty Publications by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@UNO. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Journal of Economic Literature 2017, 55(2), 644–663 https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.55.2.644 Book Reviews Editor’s Note: Guidelines for Selecting Books to Review Occasionally, we receive questions regarding the selection of books reviewed in the Journal of Economic Literature. A statement of our guidelines for book selection might therefore be useful. The general purpose of our book reviews is to help keep members of the American Economic Association informed of significant English-language publications in economics research. We also review significant books in related social sciences that might be of special interest to economists. On occasion, we review books that are written for the public at large if these books speak to issues that are of interest to economists. Finally, we review some reports or publications that have significant policy impact. -
ISSUES in CONTEMPORARY ECONOMICS Volume 2: Macroeconomics and Econometrics ISSUES in CONTEMPORARY ECONOMICS Congress Editor: Amartya Sen
ISSUES IN CONTEMPORARY ECONOMICS Volume 2: Macroeconomics and Econometrics ISSUES IN CONTEMPORARY ECONOMICS Congress Editor: Amartya Sen Volume 1 MARKETS AND WELFARE Kenneth J. Arrow (editor) Volume 2 MACROECONOMICS AND ECONOMETRICS Marc Nerlove (editor) Volume 3 POLICY AND DEVELOPMENT Partha Dasgupta (editor) Volume 4 WOMEN'S WORK IN THE WORLD ECONOMY Nancy Folbre, Barbara Bergmann, Bina Agarwal and Maria Floro (editors) Volume 5 THE GREEK ECONOMY: ECONOMIC POLICY FOR THE 1990s Thanos S. Skouras (editor) lEA conference volume series Series Standing Order If you would like to receive future titles in this series as they are published, you can make use of our standing order facility. To place a standing order please contact your bookseller or, in case of difficulty, write to us at the address below with your name and address and the name of the series. Please state with which title you wish to begin your standing order. (If you live outside the United Kingdom we may not have the rights for your area, in which case we will forward your order to the publisher concerned.) Customer Services Department, Macmillan Distribution Ltd, Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire, R02l 2 XS, England. Issues in Contemporary Economics Proceedings of the Ninth World Congress of the International Economic Association, Athens, Greece Congress Editor: Amartya Sen Volume 2 MACROECONOMICS AND ECONOMETRICS Edited by Marc Nerlove in association with the M PALGRAVE MACMILLAN MACMILLAN © International Economic Association 1991 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1991 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 33-4 Alfred Place, London WClE 7DP. -
Zvi Griliches and His Contributions to Economic Measurement
January 2000 survey of current business 15 Zvi Griliches, 1930–99 Zvi Griliches and His Contributions to Economic Measurement 3 in march 1998, Zvi Griliches opened the Conference in the early post-World War II period. He cataloged on Research in Income and Wealth’s meeting on “New data problems that ranged from those aVecting price Directions in Productivity Analysis” by remembering statistics and national accounts estimates to those with three economists—Theodore Schultz, Edwin Mans- the measurement of r&d and with the lack of ade- field, and Edward Denison—who had recently died quate responses to government surveys. He then went and who were important in the development of the on to speculate why the data were not better in spite 1 topic and to his own career. Sadly, we now add of studies by prestigious commissions and committees Griliches’ name to his list of important contributors every decade or so since 1961: Really hard measure- to economic measurement who are no longer with us. ment problems, underfunding of statistical agencies Griliches was born in Kaunas, Lithuania. In 1941, who have little clout in Washington, and insuYcient the Nazis forced his family to resettle in a Jewish “emphasis on the value of data and data collection in 1944 our training of graduate students and in the reward ghetto, and in June , the Griliches family was sent 4 to a concentration camp, where his parents died. Edu- structure of our profession.” Even when addressing cated at Hebrew University in Israel, in 1951, Griliches econometricians, as in his essay “Economic Data Is- sues” in the Handbook of Econometrics, he stressed the won a scholarship in agricultural economics to the 5 University of California at Berkeley. -
Aggregation Problem in Demand Analysis, 1930S-1950S
Aggregation Problem in Demand Analysis, 1930s-1950s Hugo Chu∗ Abstract This article examines the emergence of the representative agent as the outcome of trans- formations that occurred in microeconomics in the 1930s-1950s years, especially in the subfield of demand theory. To tell this story, I begin with a particular historical inter- pretation of this subfield, propounded by Wade Hands and Philip Mirowski in the 1990s, known as the Hotelling-Schultz Impasse. Although this impasse was abandoned by the end of the 1930s, the testing of the Symmetry Restrictions and the validity of the Integra- bility Conditions continued to draw the attention of different research centers. The Cowles Commission, represented by its research director, Tjalling Koopmans, played an impor- tant role during this stage and, more to the point, in the subsequent emergence of the representative agent in microeconomics through their approach to aggregation problem. The significance of Paul Samuelson's introduction of homothetic preferences into General Equilibrium Theory and its connection to Koopmans's writings during the 1950s is also emphasized. Keywords: Representative Agent, Aggregation Problem, Tjalling Koopmans Resumo O presente artigo examina a emerg^enciado agente representativo como resultado da trans- forma¸c~aoque ocorreu na economia nos anos de 1930 a 1950, especialmente no subcampo da teoria da demanda. Para contar essa hist´oria,eu come¸cocom uma interpreta¸c~aohist´orica particular proposta por Wade Hands e Philip Mirowski nos anos de 1990 conhecido como o Impasse de Hotelling-Schultz. Embora esse impasse tenha sido abandonado ao final da d´ecadade 1930, o teste da Restri¸c~aode Simetria e a validade das Condi¸c~oesde Integrabil- idade continuou a chamar aten¸c~aode diferentes centros de pesquisas. -
Heterogeneity and State Dependence
View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Research Papers in Economics This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Studies in Labor Markets Volume Author/Editor: Sherwin Rosen, ed. Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press Volume ISBN: 0-226-72628-2 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/rose81-1 Publication Date: 1981 Chapter Title: Heterogeneity and State Dependence Chapter Author: James J. Heckman Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c8909 Chapter pages in book: (p. 91 - 140) 3 Heterogeneity and State Dependence James J. Heckman In a variety of contexts, such as in the study of the incidence of accidents (Bates and Neyman 1951), labor force participation (Heckman and Willis 1977) and unemployment (Layton 1978), it is often noted that individuals who have experienced an event in the past are more likely to experience the event in the future than are individuals who have not experienced the event. The conditional probability that an individual will experience the event in the future is a function of past experience. There are two explanations for this empirical regularity. One explanation is that as a consequence of experiencing an event, preferences, prices, or constraints relevant to future choices (or out- comes) are altered. In this case past experience has a genuine behavioral effect in the sense that an otherwise identical individual who did not experience the event would behave differently in the future than an individual who experienced the event. -
What Drives Productivity Growth?
Kevin J. Stiroh What Drives Productivity Growth? • Neoclassical and “new growth” theories offer n 1995, the U.S. economy started to experience a strong alternative explanations for productivity and Iresurgence in labor productivity growth. After growing only output growth. 1.3 percent per year from 1973 to 1995, labor productivity growth jumped to 2.5 percent from 1995 to 1999 (see chart).1 • In the neoclassical view, exogenous This striking revival has hardly gone unnoticed, with technical progress drives long-run productivity academics, policymakers, and the financial press hotly debating growth since broadly defined capital competing explanations. Some commentators emphasize rapid suffers from diminishing returns. In contrast, capital accumulation and the recent investment boom, others the new growth models yield long-run point to deeper factors like fundamental technological change in high-tech industries, and still others argue that cyclical growth endogenously, either by avoiding 2 diminishing returns to capital or by forces provide the primary explanation. explaining technical progress This debate about the forces driving the U.S. economy mirrors a larger debate between the neoclassical and new internally. growth theories regarding the sources of economic growth. Economists have long disagreed about this vital question, and • Despite their differences, both views help the recent U.S. productivity revival presents an opportune to explain the recent rise in U.S. productivity backdrop to review this debate. growth. The methodological tools In the neoclassical view, broadly defined capital developed by neoclassical economists accumulation drives growth in the short run, but capital provide a means to measure the rate of eventually succumbs to diminishing returns, so long-run technical progress, while the models of productivity growth is entirely due to exogenous technical the new growth economists can provide progress.