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Afrique Australe

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Afrique Australe NOTES SUR L’ETABLISSEMENT D’UN FICHIER DE DONNEES DE PLUIES MENSUELLES EN VUE DE LA CONSTITUTION D’UNE SERIE DE PLUIE DE REFERENCE. PAYS: BOTSWANA LESOTHO MALAWI MOZAMBIQUE NAMIBIE SOUTH AFRICA SWAZILAND Tome 6 : AFRIQUE AUSTRALE http://fr.mapsofworld.com/ 21/06/2012 Nathalie ROUCHÉ HYDROSCIENCES MONTPELLIER CNRS – IRD – UM1 – UM2 TABLE DES MATIÈRES Préambule ..................................................................................................................... Page 2 Mode opératoire succinct ............................................................................................. Page 2 Critique des données – Anomalies ou cas réclamant une attention particulière .......... Page 2 Nombre de : stations de pluies, séries avant critique, séries de référence obtenu, le pourcentage d’évolution du nombre de donnée de pluie, le rapport nombre de série / nombre de station ............................................................ Page 3 BOTSWANA ............................................................................................................... Page 4 LESOTHO .................................................................................................................... Page 6 MALAWI ..................................................................................................................... Page 8 MOZAMBIQUE .......................................................................................................... Page 10 NAMIBIE ..................................................................................................................... Page 12 SOUTH AFRICA ......................................................................................................... Page 15 SWAZILAND .............................................................................................................. Page 20 Moyennes mensuelles par stations après critiques automatiques et manuelles des valeurs de pluies mensuelles BOTSWANA ............................................................................................................... Page 30 LESOTHO .................................................................................................................... Page 32 MALAWI ..................................................................................................................... Page 33 MOZAMBIQUE .......................................................................................................... Page 35 NAMIBIE ..................................................................................................................... Page 38 SOUTH AFRICA ......................................................................................................... Page 43 SWAZILAND .............................................................................................................. Page 69 Inventaire des périodes pour le calcul des pluies moyennes mensuelles des stations de référence classé par pays puis nom de station BOTSWANA ............................................................................................................... Page 71 LESOTHO .................................................................................................................... Page 72 MALAWI ..................................................................................................................... Page 73 MOZAMBIQUE .......................................................................................................... Page 74 NAMIBIE ..................................................................................................................... Page 76 SOUTH AFRICA ......................................................................................................... Page 80 SWAZILAND .............................................................................................................. Page 98 ETABLISSEMENT D’UN FICHIER DE DONNEES DE PLUIES MENSUELLES POUR CONSTITUTION D’UNE SERIE DE PLUIE DE REFERENCE Tome 4 AFRIQUE CENTRALE Page 1 sur 98 Préambule Je reproduis ici diverses notes de dossier et commentaires qui ont servi à réaliser un jeu de données de pluies mensuelles de référence. J’espère que ce travail pourra être utile dans l’avenir si l’utilisateur veut affiner son analyse et si nous disposons de plus d’informations pour améliorer la critique actuelle. Il aurait été dommage que ce long travail de critique et de prétraitement reste dans sa version papier sans que ne soient compilé toutes les annotations faites par les critiqueurs. La saisie, le traitement des fichiers ainsi que la mise à disposition des informations dans le système d’informations environnementales SIEREM ont été soigneusement effectués par Nathalie Rouché. Mode opératoire succinct : (en italique les actions manuelles, sinon actions automatisées) - Calculer les valeurs mensuelles d’après les valeurs journalières ou décadaires. - Comparer les valeurs de séries journalières, décadaires, et mensuelles pour un même poste. - Elaborer une série de référence pour chaque poste selon les principes évoqués ci-dessous : - Imprimer les grilles mensuelles par stations. - La critique manuelle vient affiner les séries de référence. - Constituer les grilles géoréférencées des pluies mensuelles. Critique des données – Anomalies ou cas réclamant une attention particulière. Signaler la répétition d’un mois d’une année sur l’autre. Code A Signaler la répétition d’un mois sur le mois suivant. Code M Signaler le total supérieur ou égal à un seuil fixé (à définir selon pays). Code S Signaler les mois à zéro en saison des pluies (saison à définir selon pays). Code 0 Signaler les mois où une différence est observée entre les séries. Code T Lorsque la valeur d’une série est issue d’un cumul et est incomplète, elle est précédée d’un *. Les critiques s’appliquent à tous les postes sans nombre d’année minimum. Nous avons défini une saison de pluie pour chaque pays afin de déterminer la saison humide et la saison sèche. Nous avons comparé les totaux mensuels aux moyennes mensuelles (Ecart-type) et à l’estimation du total annuel en tenant compte de la totalité des années observées (et qui varie d’une station à l’autre). Nous avons également comparé ces mêmes valeurs aux stations voisines. Les tableaux ci-dessous indiquent, pour les 7 pays d’Afrique Australe : 1- Le nombre de stations de pluies, le nombre de séries avant critique, le nombre de séries de référence obtenu, le pourcentage d’évolution du nombre de donnée de pluie, le rapport nombre de série / nombre de station. 2- La date du jeu de pluie de référence, le nombre d’alertes repérées et traitées par pays. ETABLISSEMENT D’UN FICHIER DE DONNEES DE PLUIES MENSUELLES POUR CONSTITUTION D’UNE SERIE DE PLUIE DE REFERENCE Tome 4 AFRIQUE CENTRALE Page 2 sur 98 PAYS_NOM Nombre Nombre Nombr Nombre de Nombre Nombre En % Rapport Nombre de séries e de donnees de total de evoluti Nombre maxi. de stations avant Séries avant données donnees de on du série / séries critique de critique de pluie nombr station pour une Référen référence e de station ce donné es de pluies BOTSWANA 56 82 53 874 702 26 282 900 984 3.00 1.46 3 LESOTHO 18 33 15 263 891 12 901 276 792 4.89 1.83 4 NAMIBIA 174 175 159 277 675 76 070 353 745 27.40 1.01 2 MALAWI 896 37 33 23 330 21 207 44 537 90.90 0.04 1 MOZAMBIQUE 79 78 78 61 721 36 854 98 575 59.71 0.99 2 SOUTH AFRICA 908 1059 840 20 928 117 654 971 21 583 088 3.13 1.17 5 SWAZILAND 94 64 36 780 814 23 576 804 390 3.02 0.68 3 Total 1223 405 338 1 501 319 173 314 1 674 633 Tableau 1 : Le nombre de stations de pluies, le nombre de séries avant critique, le nombre de séries de référence obtenu, le pourcentage d’évolution du nombre de donnée de pluie, le rapport nombre de série / nombre de station. PAYS_ID PAYS_NOM Date Jeu de pluie Nombre d'alertes de référence. Nombre séries repérées et traitées Pays traité avant critique par pays BW BOTSWANA 09/05/2011 82 547 LS LESOTHO 03/12/2010 33 925 MW MALAWI 04/04/2011 37 326 MZ MOZAMBIQUE 13/01/2011 78 1073 NA NAMIBIA 22/03/2011 175 998 ZA SOUTH AFRICA 16/08/2011 1059 15131 SZ SWAZILAND 07/06/2010 64 948 Total 1528 19948 Tableau 2 : date du jeu de pluie de référence, nombre d’alertes repérées et traitées par pays. Ci-après, par pays et station par station, je signale quelques commentaires sur les « anomalies », estimations et questions qui n’ont pas fait l’objet de corrections dans le fichier opérationnel car nous n’avons pas pu trouver d’éléments de réponses. ETABLISSEMENT D’UN FICHIER DE DONNEES DE PLUIES MENSUELLES POUR CONSTITUTION D’UNE SERIE DE PLUIE DE REFERENCE Tome 4 AFRIQUE CENTRALE Page 3 sur 98 Pays : BOTSWANA Les critiques manuelles sont faites par Nathalie Rouché – 2ème trimestre 2011. Les critères retenus pour la critique automatisée sont : Critère Test (modifiable) Code Qui veut dire… Valeur négative N Négatif Valeur supérieure au seuil Seuil : 1500 mm S Supérieur au Seuil Valeur hors cadre Max -Min > 1 T différen T Valeur nulle en saison des Saison : Novembre à avril 0 Zér 0 pluies Même val que même mois A Même valeur que l’ Année an précédent et non nulle précédente Même val que mois M Même valeur que le Mois précédent et non nulle précédent Valeur en saison sèche Ssec =10*Moyenne (mois, D Dépassement du seuil sec supérieure au seuil station) Valeur en saison humide Seuil =0.3*Moyenne I Insuffisant pour période inférieure au seuil (mois, station) humide Les ordres de priorités des sources de données pour le Botswana : Données issues du service météorologique de Tanzanie- code meteotz, Données
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