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23 OCTOBER 2020 Moody's Investors Service

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23 OCTOBER 2020 Moody's Investors Service FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS CREDIT OPINION FCA Bank S.p.A. 23 October 2020 Update to credit analysis Update Summary The Baa1 long-term deposit and issuer ratings of FCA Bank S.p.A. (FCA Bank), a joint venture between the car manufacturer Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. (FCA, Ba11, Developing outlook) and Credit Agricole S.A. (CASA, Aa3 stable, baa22), reflect the bank’s ba1 Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA), which is mainly driven by its sound solvency profile and RATINGS commercial dependence on FCA; a high probability of affiliate support from CASA, whose FCA Bank S.p.A. Adjusted BCA of a3 drives a one-notch uplift from FCA Bank's BCA to baa3; a very low loss Domicile Torino, Italy given failure, which results in three and two notches of uplift for the deposit and issuer Long Term CRR Baa1 Type LT Counterparty Risk ratings, respectively; the low probability of government support; and Italy's (Baa3 stable) Rating - Fgn Curr sovereign debt rating, which constrains FCA Bank's long-term deposit ratings. Outlook Not Assigned Long Term Debt Not Assigned The outlook on the issuer rating is negative, reflecting the deteriorating operating Long Term Deposit Baa1 environment because of the coronavirus pandemic in Europe and the downside risks to the Type LT Bank Deposits - Fgn Curr bank's standalone credit profile. Outlook Stable Exhibit 1 Please see the ratings section at the end of this report Rating Scorecard - Key financial ratios for more information. The ratings and outlook shown FCA Bank (BCA: ba1) Median ba1-rated banks reflect information as of the publication date. 18% 90% 16% 80% 14% 70% LiquidityFactors 12% 60% Contacts 10% 50% Raffaele Del +33.1.5330.3360 8% 40% Cimmuto 6% 30% SolvencyFactors Associate Analyst 4% 20% 2% 10% [email protected] 1.3% 15.9% 1.4% 79.2% 8.3% 0% 0% Guy Combot +33.1.5330.5981 Asset Risk: Capital: Profitability: Funding Structure: Liquid Resources: Problem Loans/ Tangible Common Net Income/ Market Funds/ Liquid Banking VP-Senior Analyst Gross Loans Equity/Risk-Weighted Tangible Assets Tangible Banking Assets/Tangible [email protected] Assets Assets Banking Assets Solvency Factors (LHS) Liquidity Factors (RHS) Alain Laurin +33.1.5330.1059 The ratios of capital, funding structure and liquid resources are based on the most recent data; the ratios of asset risk and Associate Managing Director profitability are based on three-year averages or the most recent data if they are worse than averages. [email protected] Source: Moody's Financial Metrics Nick Hill +33.1.5330.1029 MD-Banking [email protected] MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS Credit strengths » Low stock of problem loans » Good profitability through the economic cycles » Matched asset and liability maturities Credit challenges » Monoline business model and commercial dependence on FCA » Wholesale funding profile, which is mitigated by Credit Agricole's ongoing support » High exposure to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which are at risk, given the deteriorating operating environment because of the pandemic Outlook The negative outlook on the long-term issuer rating of FCA Bank reflects the negative impact of a deteriorating operating environment in Europe because of the pandemic on the bank's standalone credit profile. Despite the support packages offered by the Italian government, the European Union and the European Central Bank, we expect a material increase in FCA Bank's cost of risk and a declining profitability. The outlook on FCA Bank's long-term deposit rating is stable as the rating is constrained by Italy's Baa3 sovereign debt rating. Therefore, FCA Bank's deposits are unlikely to be downgraded in the event of a lowering of the Adjusted BCA as they would then benefit from one notch of LGF uplift. Factors that could lead to an upgrade An upgrade of FCA Bank's ratings is unlikely, given the negative outlook on the long-term issuer rating and the constraint on the deposit ratings arising from Italy's government bond rating of Baa3. Under our Banks methodology, banks' ratings do not typically exceed the related sovereign bond rating by more than two notches, reflecting our view that the expected loss of rated bank instruments is unlikely to be significantly lower than that of the sovereign's own debt. Factors that could lead to a downgrade A downgrade of FCA Bank's issuer rating would likely be driven by a lower BCA or a lower Adjusted BCA, which could be prompted by a material decline in solvency, liquidity or lower parental support. A downgrade of the issuer rating could also be triggered by a higher loss given failure on senior unsecured liabilities. A downgrade of Italy's sovereign rating to Ba1 would also lead to a downgrade of FCA Bank's deposit and issuer ratings. This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history. 2 23 October 2020 FCA Bank S.p.A.: Update to credit analysis MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS Key indicators Exhibit 2 FCA Bank S.p.A. (Consolidated Financials) [1] 06-202 12-192 12-182 12-172 12-162 CAGR/Avg.3 Total Assets (EUR Million) 29,974.3 31,705.7 30,536.5 27,187.0 23,283.6 7.54 Total Assets (USD Million) 33,665.8 35,589.6 34,907.6 32,646.0 24,558.5 9.44 Tangible Common Equity (EUR Million) 3,093.2 2,880.7 2,617.6 2,262.0 1,991.4 13.44 Tangible Common Equity (USD Million) 3,474.1 3,233.5 2,992.3 2,716.2 2,100.5 15.54 Problem Loans / Gross Loans (%) 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.35 Tangible Common Equity / Risk Weighted Assets (%) 15.9 13.6 12.0 11.4 11.0 12.86 Problem Loans / (Tangible Common Equity + Loan Loss Reserve) (%) 8.2 9.5 10.0 12.2 13.1 10.65 Net Interest Margin (%) 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.65 PPI / Average RWA (%) 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.8 3.06 Net Income / Tangible Assets (%) 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.45 Cost / Income Ratio (%) 54.2 51.3 49.7 51.0 52.1 51.75 Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets (%) 78.1 79.2 79.6 81.4 83.3 80.35 Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets (%) 9.8 8.3 8.4 7.8 6.5 8.25 Gross Loans / Due to Customers (%) 1128.6 1344.0 1309.1 1450.7 2684.7 1583.45 [1] All figures and ratios are adjusted using Moody's standard adjustments. [2] Basel III - fully loaded or transitional phase-in; IFRS. [3] May include rounding differences because of the scale of reported amounts. [4] Compound annual growth rate (%) based on the periods for the latest accounting regime. [5] Simple average of periods for the latest accounting regime. [6] Simple average of Basel III periods. Sources: Moody's Investors Service and company filings Profile FCA Bank S.p.A. (FCA Bank) is a captive finance company that supports vehicle sales in selected European countries by its manufacturer shareholder FCA and also by non-FCA brands such as Ferrari, Jaguar, Land Rover, Erwin Hymer, Morgan and Aston Martin. Furthermore, in 2018, FCA Bank ventured into the motorcycle segment through agreements with Harley Davidson and in 2020 with Lotus and Groupe Pilote. The bank operates in 17 European countries and Morocco, either directly or through branches and subsidiaries, and provides services mainly through the dealership networks of the respective manufacturers. The company is a 50:50 joint venture between Credit Agricole Consumer Finance SA, a subsidiary of CASA, and FCA Italy S.p.A., a subsidiary of FCA. For more information, please see FCA Bank's Company Profile. Detailed credit considerations FCA Bank’s BCA is strained by the pandemic FCA Bank's market is constrained by the difficult environment in the global automotive industry, where we expect global light vehicle sales to contract by 19% in 2020 and recover by 9% in 2021 and 7% in 2022. A full recovery to pre-downturn levels will, however, take until the middle of the decade. Consequently, FCA Bank's metrics, in particular profitability and also asset quality, will likely be under pressure in the next 12 months. Stock of problem loans to increase because of the pandemic in FCA Bank's European markets FCA Bank’s asset risk is low, indicated by our a3 score, one notch below the Macro-Adjusted score of a2 to reflect our view that the bank's problem loan ratio will deteriorate because of the pandemic. The pandemic has had a significant impact on the European economies, affecting both corporates and individuals, with more acute consequences for the important SME sector. FCA Bank's significant exposure to SMEs makes the bank's credit profile sensitive to such adverse market conditions. To some extent, the economic consequences of the pandemic will be mitigated by the supporting measures taken by the Italian government and the European Union, alongside the support provided by the European Central Bank. The Italian government published law decrees on 17 March 2020 and 8 April 20203, which include, inter alia, a six-month bank loan moratorium for companies under specific conditions and a large state guarantee programme on new loans of up to €340 billion.
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