Global Agenda Council on the Future of Government Future of Government Smart Toolbox June 2014 Acknowledgements Acknowledgements Report team Global Knowledge Events team World Economic Forum Networks team World Economic Forum Carl Björkman World Economic Forum Denise Burnet Director, Head of International Espen Barth Eide Senior Director, Head of Events, Organisations and Government Affairs Managing Director and member Event Management Melita Leoussis of the Managing Board Project Manager, International Martina Larkin Design Relations and Government Affairs Head of Global Human After All Artemis Papoutsakis Knowledge Networks, (humanafterall.co.uk) Team Coordinator, Global Knowledge Networks International Organisations Peter Bisanz Special thanks to Professor Joseph and Government Affairs Associate Director, S. Nye, Jr. for honouring our Council Lisa Ventura Head of Outreach, with his intellectual stewardship; Research Analyst, Global Knowledge Networks our Vice-Chair, Diana Farrell, Director Global Knowledge Networks Daniel Beaulieu of McKinsey & Company, and her Rigas Hadzilacos Associate Director, team member Kate Jackson; and the Research Analyst, Global Knowledge Networks Government Summit, United Arab Global Knowledge Networks Emirates for their continuous support Strategic Foresight team and for co-sponsoring the Future Production team World Economic Forum of Government Smart Toolbox. World Economic Forum Kristel van der Elst Michael Hanley Senior Director, Senior Director, Communications, Head Strategic Foresight Digital Content and Editing Trudi Lang Fon Mathuros Chantanayingyong Associate Director, Senior Director, Head of Media, Strategic Foresight Media Relations David Gleicher Ann Brady Senior Manager, Head of Editing, Strategic Foresight Digital Content and Editing Kaitlyn Powles, Kamal Kimaoui Project Associate, Director, Head of Production Strategic Foresight and Design, Publications Oliver Cann Middle East and Associate Director, Media Relations North Africa team Nicolas Siegenthaler World Economic Forum Content Producer, Miroslav Dusek Information Technology Senior Director, Amelie Weinzierl Middle East and North Africa Media Relations Associate, Manal El Meligi Media Relations Community Manager, Middle East and North Africa © World Economic Forum 2014 – All rights reserved. © Government Summit, United Arab Emirates No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any The views and content expressed in this document are those of the author form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, (authors) and do not necessarily reflect the views or the approach of the UAE or by any information storage and retrieval system. Government and / or the organizer and supervisor of the Government Summit. The views expressed are those of certain participants and do not necessarily All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any material reflect the views of all participants or of the World Economic Forum. form (including photocopying or storing in any medium by electronic means) without the written permission of the copyright holders. Application for the copyright holders’ REF050514 written permission to reproduce any part of this publication should be addressed to the publishers, Ministry of Cabinet Affairs, in accordance with the International Copyright Act 1956 and the UAE Federal Law No.(7) of 2002 Concerning Copyrights and Neighbouring Rights. Any person acting in contravention of this will be liable to prosecution and claims for damages. Future of Government Smart Toolbox | 02 Contents Contents Preface 04 Foreword 05 Executive Summary 06 Chapter I The Impact of Technology on Trust 11 Chapter II Leadership 2.0 – The Impact of Technology on Leadership 18 Chapter III Enhancing Government Services 26 for Citizens in the Digital Age Chapter IV The Role of Technology 35 in Political Representation Chapter V The Impact of Information 43 Technology on Anti-corruption Chapter VI Governance Solutions to Overcoming Stovepiping and Silos 51 Chapter VII Using Technology to Help Civilians Affected by Conflict 58 Chapter VIII The Impact of ICT 64 for Government Innovation Chapter IX Scenarios on the Future of Government 71 Scenarios 74 Endnotes 81 Contributors 82 List of Participants 83 Future of Government Smart Toolbox | 03 Preface Through most of the 1980s, 1990s Agenda Council on the Future of Government and 2000s, trust fell to 25% in the US. and the Strategic Foresight team of the World Preface Economic Forum created three visions of At the same time, social cohesion in many government in 2050: e1984 is a world in which countries seems increasingly shattered. the promise of big data is realized; economic, The United States has the highest level of geopolitical and cyberthreats are omnipresent; inequality of any of the advanced countries – and collective solidarity is a core societal and its gap with the rest has been widening. value. Gated Community is a world in which In the “recovery” of 2009-2010, the top 1% Big Government is broke; political power Espen Barth Eide of US income earners captured 93% of rests with individuals and private sector Managing Director and Member of the income growth.2 According to Oxfam, the organizations. CityState is a world in which Managing Board, World Economic Forum world’s 85 richest people have more wealth authority is decentralized to city level than the poorest 3.5 billion.3 It is high time and pragmatism trumps idealism for a discussion on the effect fast-growing in addressing collective issues. inequalities have on trust, accountability and, in some cases, the entire social While none of these scenarios is likely to contract that lies at the base of any society. come to pass in full or in isolation from the other scenarios, each is an extrapolation According to the chapter on trust in this of a current trend. At the conclusion of report, authored by Diana Farrell and Anders the Summit on the Global Agenda 2013, Borg, three characteristics of citizen trust have Joseph S. Nye, Jr. remarked that “today’s important implications for government: trust trends left unattended could lead to is not static or stable − it can change quickly dystopian futures”. Taking, for example, and dramatically; trust varies significantly urbanization or big data as forces that across countries and surveys; and trust influence government, how can the has fallen over time. While trust takes time protection of individual rights be ensured to build, it can break down fast, leading if the world is moving towards the e1984 to economic, social and political tensions. scenario? Or how is collective action The thesis of the chapter is that technology achieved beyond cities in a CityState can help government (re)build trust through world? What would such a future multiple channels, such as e-government/ entail for urban-rural relationships? e-participation, open data and social media. These scenarios were created for two main The Future of Government Smart Toolbox Technology can also help to create a reasons. Firstly, to stretch the thinking of the by the Global Agenda Council on the Future synergistic relationship between leaders and Council on the Future of Government in order of Government is released at a time when followers. But technology on its own is not to make the toolbox as robust and as forward- government is endeavouring to deliver enough to build smart, modern governments. looking as possible. Secondly, to facilitate against a Herculean task: to do more insightful conversations on the potential roles while reforming, “leaning up” and In the framework for the smart toolbox, trust and forms of government, as well as the policy staying agile, all at the same time. and leadership are defined as “intervening” actions needed now to ensure governments are variables stemming from good government prepared for the future − however it may unfold. The government toolbox presented in this “inputs” – namely political representation, report is called “smart”, alluding to the mix of stovepiping/bureaucracies, innovation and I would like to convey my sincere gratitude to soft and hard power elements that enhance anti-corruption – and leading to “outputs” the Members of the Global Agenda Council government performance. The operational such as security, services and trust. on the Future of Government, who worked question the authors attempt to answer is tirelessly for 16 months to produce this how technology can help governments get Trust is thus both a parameter in and a result report. I particularly wish to thank Joseph better at dealing with eight core government of good government. Government leaders S. Nye, Jr. for lending us his wisdom for this priorities: anti-corruption, political need to rethink which aims or values the report and for coming up with the idea and representation, stovepiping/bureaucracies, community to which they belong should be concept behind the toolbox. Diana Farrell, delivery of services, trust, leadership, trying to achieve: is it economic growth, law our Vice-Chair, was also instrumental in security and innovation. and order, individual liberty, full employment, making this report possible. I need finally to trust, or perhaps happiness for their citizens? thank Melita Leoussis and Carl Björkman, as Governance in the 21st century is evolving Moreover, what does “good government” imply well as Kristel van der Elst and her Strategic in a context of declining trust: in 2012, the in the information era? And finally, how can Foresight team, for