Cross-Strait Relations and Electoral Politics in Taiwan

Lu-huei Chen Distinguished Research Fellow Election Study Center National Chengchi University, Taiwan Visiting Scholar Political Science Department, MIT

1 2015/3/9 2 2015/3/9 Outline

l Cross-Strait Relations after Ma’s Inauguration in 2008（會談、開放、 ECFA） l Major Attitudes Trends in Taiwan（統獨、政黨認同、臺灣人認同） l Attitudes of Chinese Government toward Taiwan（敵意善意） l Cross-Strait Service and Trade Agreement（兩岸服貿協議） l Electoral Politics in Taiwan(制度、投票參與情況 ) l 2014 “nine-in-one” elections（選舉種類與主要投票傾向） l Interactions between Electoral Politics and Cross-Strait Relations

3 2015/3/9 Cross-Strait Relations and Electoral Politics

l Elite play dominant role on cross-Strait relations before 1996 l Presidential elections and cross-Strait relations since 1996

4 2015/3/9 Cross-Strait Relations after Ma’s Inauguration in 2008

l China Policies since 1996 l Cross-Strait Exchanges since 2008

5 2015/3/9 China Policies since 1996

l Lee Teng-hui (1988~2000) No haste, be patient (jie-ji yong-ren) （戒急用忍）

6 2015/3/9 Chen Shui-bian(2000~2008)

Proactive management & effective liberalization (ji-ji guang-li you-xiao kai-fang) （積極管理有效開放）

7 2015/3/9 Ma Ying-jeou(2008~2016)

New 3-no policy: No unification, no independence, no use of military force （不統、不獨、不武）

8 2015/3/9 Cross-Strait exchanges after 2008

Chiang-Chen Summit: Chiang Pin-kung, the Chair of Taiwan’s Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF), and Chen Yunlin held institutionalized talks since June 13 2008 in Beijing. Chen Yunlin, the Head of the Association for Relations across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS), came to visit Taipei in November 3 2008 in Taipei.

9 2015/3/9 Cross-Strait exchanges after 2008

Chen Yunlin, the head of the Association for Relations across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS), came to visit Taipei in November of 2008, and he is the high-ranking Chinese official to visit since 1949. Chiang Pin-kung, the Chair of Taiwan’s Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF), and Chen Yunlin held institutionalized talks since June 2008. The Ma administration proposed “Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement” (ECFA) with Beijing to further economic cooperation between Taiwan and China. (2010/06/29)

10 2015/3/9 Wang-Zhang Meeting 2-11-2014

Wang Yu-chi, the Minister of Mainland Affairs Council (MAC), went to Nanjing on 11 February 2014. This meeting is the very first official contact between the two governments across the Taiwan Strait after the end of Chinese Civil War in 1949.

Zhang Zhijun, the Director of Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) came to Taipei on 25 June 2014. It was the highest PRC government official visit to Taiwan.

11 2015/3/9 Wang-Zhang Meeting 2-11-2014

12 2015/3/9 Major Political Attitudes

Dynamics of Electoral Politics in Taiwan --Identity Politics --Attitudes toward Mainland China

13 2015/3/9 Preference on Taiwan Independence Issue

Regarding the relations between Taiwan and mainland China, there are a number of different views. Which position better represent your view on this issue? 1. Unification with China ASAP (Unification) 2. Declaring independence ASAP (Independence) 3. Maintaining status quo, moving toward unification (SQ-Unification) 4. Maintaining status quo, moving toward independence (SQ -Independence) 5. Maintaining status quo, deciding at late date (SQ-Decide later) 6. Maintaining status quo indefinitely (SQ-Indefinitely)

14 2015/3/9 Preference on Taiwan Independence Issue

15 2015/3/9 Preference on Taiwan Independence Issue

16 2015/3/9 Trends of Party ID

17 2015/3/9 Trends of Party ID_by Partisan Camp

18 2015/3/9 Trends of Chinese/Taiwanese Identity

19 2015/3/9 Prospects on Cross-Strait Relations

20 2015/3/9 Prospects on Cross-Strait Relations by Party ID

21 2015/3/9 Prospects on Cross-Strait Relations by Identity

22 2015/3/9 Chinese Gov. treat Taiwanese Gov.

23 2015/3/9 Chinese Gov. treat Taiwanese

24 2015/3/9 Sunflower Student Movement in 2014

l Date: March 18 to April 10, 2014, in the Legislative Yuan l Why：The activists protested the passing of the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement (CSSTA) by the ruling party Kuomintang (KMT) at the legislature without clause-by-clause review.

25 2015/3/9 26 民意與調查 2015/3/9 ）

27 民意與調查 2015/3/9 28 民意與調查 2015/3/9 Political Emotion: Hopeful

29 民意與調查 2015/3/9 Political Emotion: Angry

30 民意與調查 2015/3/9 Political Emotion: Worrisome

31 民意與調查 2015/3/9 Emotions and Political Participation

32 2015/3/9 Emotions and Attitude toward CSSTA

33 2015/3/9 Electoral Politics in Taiwan

l Presidential Election l Legislative Elections l Local Elections

34 2015/3/9 Electoral Participation： National Elections

35 2015/3/9 Electoral Participation： Local Elections

36 2015/3/9 Election Results, 2009-2014

37 2015/3/9 38 2015/3/9 Social Bases for Major Parties

l KMT Females, 40~59 yr, Wei-shang-ren, Hakka, educated, Governemntal Officers, North and middle Taiwan, Satisfied with Cross-Strait relations, Pan-Blue partisans, Pro-Unification and Maintaining Status Quo, Dual-Identity l DPP 20-23 yr, Min-nan-ren, lower education, labor, farmer, Southern Taiwan, Pan-Green partisans, Pro-Independence, Taiwan Identity 39 2015/3/9 New Taipei City

40 2015/3/9 Local Elections: Nov. 29, 2014

l 6 municipal cities Mayor/City councilor/Leader/councilor of Aboriginal District/Li Elections DPP: 4; KMT:1; IND: 1 l 16 Counties Magistrate/county councilor/township/ township councilor/Li elections

41 DPP: 9;KMT:5 ; IND:2 2015/3/9

Legislative Elections

l Total seats: 113 l Mixed-member Majoritarian systems l One vote for candidate (70% of total seats) 1. SMD: 73 seats 2. Two Aboriginal Districts: 3 seats for each l One vote for party (30% of total seats) 1. PR: 34 seats 2. Threshold: 5%

42 2015/3/9 43 2015/3/9 2008 Legislative Elections

2008 SMD PR4 Aboriginal Total Vote % Seat(%) Vote % Seat(%) Vote % Seat(%) Seat(%) 國民黨 53.48 57 51.23 20 54.89 4 81 (KMT) (78.08) (58.82) (66.67) (71.68) 民進黨 38.65 13 36.91 14 6.76 0 27 (DPP) (17.81) (41.18) (0.00) (23.89) 新黨 1 ------3.95 0 ------0 (NP) (0.00) (0.00) 親民黨 2 0.02 0 ------17.47 1 1 (PFP) (0.00) (16.67) (0.89) 台聯 0.96 0 3.53 0 ------0 (TSU) (0.00) (0.00) 無黨聯盟 2.25 2 0.70 0 13.35 1 3 (NPSU) (2.74) (0.00) (16.67) (2.66) 其他 3 4.64 1 3.68 0 7.53 0 1 (Other) (1.37) (0.00) (0.00) (0.89) Total 100.0 73 100.0 34 100.0 6 113 Turnout % 58.72% 58.28% 47.36% ---

44 2015/3/9 2012 Legislative Elections

2012 SMD PR4 Aboriginal Total Vote % Seat(%) Vote % Seat(%) Vote % Seat(%) Seat(%) 國民黨 48.12 44 44.55 16 51.52 4 64 (KMT) (60.27) (47.06) (66.67) (56.64) 民進黨 44.45 27 34.62 13 4.64 0 40 (DPP) (36.99) (38.24) (0.00) (35.40) 新黨 1 0.08 0 1.49 0 ------0 (NP) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) 親民黨 2 1.12 0 5.49 2 13.74 1 3 (PFP) (0.00) (5.88) (16.67) (2.65) 台聯 ------8.96 3 ------3 (TSU) (8.82) (2.65) 無黨聯盟 1.08 1 ------13.74 1 2 (NPSU) (1.37) (16.67) (1.77) 其他 3 5.15 1 4.89 0 16.36 0 1 (Other) (1.37) (0.00) (0.00) (0.88) Total 100.0 73 100.0 34 100.0 6 113 Turnout % 74.72% 74.33% 61.99% ------45 2015/3/9

Cross-Strait Relations and Electoral Politics

l Public Opinion play more important role on Cross- Strait relations l Politicians have to respond people’s preference on major issues l Roles of cross-Strait economic exchanges and political emotions toward China

46 2015/3/9 Thank you for your attention!! Q & A

47 2015/3/9