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Issue no. 194 July 2021 www.res.org.uk | @RoyalEconSoc

Notes from an online conference We report on this year’s RES Conference CONTENTS

Inside this issue… JULY 2021 | ISSUE NO. 194

My thought was to rework growth and development economics and the economics of poverty by embedding the human economy in Nature, not keeping it external to Nature see page 14

01 THE EDITORIAL 12 WEALTH TAX 22 THE WOMEN’S COMMITTEE Looking forward and back: an Arun Advani makes an economic Victoria Bateman and Erin Hengel introduction to the issue. Can case for a one-off wealth tax, highlight a mix of improvement, looking back help us move forward? drawing on the work of the Wealth retreat and stagnation Tax Commission 02 LETTER FROM… 24 THE ECONOMETRICS JOURNAL The Letter from Germany by 14 THE DASGUPTA REVIEW A year in the life of the Michael Burda, reflecting on climate Sir Partha Dasgupta answers Econometrics Journal, drawing change and the value of economics our questions about his landmark attention to some highlights report on the economics 04 CONFERENCE REPORT of biodiversity and protecting 26 NEWS AND EVENTS The Editor’s report on the 2021 RES the biosphere A selection of news items and Conference, the first RES Conference details of some RES events, past to be held entirely online 18 ECONOMICS AND and forthcoming EPIDEMIOLOGY 10 PROFILE The Editor reports on a special 28 FROM THE ARCHIVE Where ideas come from, and the session at the 2021 RES Some highlights from Diane Coyle’s creative process: a question-and- Conference, on the research conference report, from the July answer profile of Dame Carol Propper response to the pandemic 2002 issue

@RoyalEconSoc | www.linkedin.com/company/royal-economic-society | www.youtube.com/user/RoyalEconomicSociety EDITORIAL 1

The editor: JONATHAN TEMPLE

The conference issue

any readers will have nomics, and the German elections. been saddened to hear With the public finances under Mthat Past RES President, strain in the UK and elsewhere, Peter Neary, died on 16 June. Peter Arun Advani makes the case for was a popular and much-respected a one-off wealth tax. And in the figure. Current RES President Sir second of our profiles of leading Tim Besley has paid tribute to him economists, Dame Carol Propper in a statement on behalf of the talks about her background and Society, reprinted in the News sec- her path to economics. tion of this issue. We will publish a Producing the newsletter is full obituary at a later date. now a team effort. Those contrib- Even more than usual, the rest uting include the designer Phil of this issue looks both forwards McAllister and the new production and backwards. We have the editor Adam Peggs, with guidance annual report on the RES confer- from Helen Miller and Julia Ran- ence, held in April, and a separate dall-Edwards. My admirable pre- report on one of the conference decessor, Peter Howells, used to do special sessions, on economics and almost everything single-handed; epidemiology. In another main he saw 88 editions into print, Even more than feature, we look to the future of a feat I cannot emulate until the biosphere: Sir Partha Das- January 2043. In this issue, we usual, the rest of gupta answers our questions introduce a new feature, From the this issue looks about his landmark Review, and Archive, drawing on issues edited both forwards and the need for economists to frame by Peter. We look back at Diane their analyses differently. Coyle’s conference report from backwards In the Letter from Germany, 2002 – and not for the first time, it Michael Burda writes about cli- turns out that looking back might mate change, the relevance of eco- be one way to move forward. 2 LETTER FROM…

Letter from Germany: MICHAEL BURDA

Climate change: where are the economists?

Michael Burda on climate iven the successful jab cam- sensus that economic growth is change, the value of paigns in both the UK and fundamentally inconsistent with GGermany and our remark- our survival on this planet. This economics, and the able willingness to put a once-in- is a gut punch to the basic eco- upcoming German elections a-century pandemic behind us nomic growth model I have used – and despite the surprising lack of in my macro textbook for decades, evidence that it is really over – I’d a foundation we can teach with really like to write about something full faith and confidence to stu- else in my Letter this year. In a dents, and on which there is broad time of remarkable threats around consensus among our colleagues. the world to the viability of democ- The Solow-Swan model assumes racy, we economists face an equally a steady state with boundless fundamental challenge to our own growth of economic activity at the credibility. Can we help the world rate of labour-augmenting techno- solve the great problems of the com- logical progress. This seems funda- ing decades? I have no doubt that mentally inconsistent with a hard our natural, sometimes ideological, limit on the cumulative amount of instincts for market-based solutions carbon dioxide emissions that our have been the source of important atmosphere can handle, beyond and meaningful reforms in the UK which a climatic catastrophe and Germany over the last few ensues with probability one. Even decades: deregulation and regula- mediocre students have pointed tory competition, free trade in goods out that there is no natural mech- and services, and free movement anism in the model to account for of people and capital have brought such limits. efficiency and welfare gains to mil- I wonder how many of our col- lions. Yet the apparent successes leagues even teach externalities of China’s policy responses to the these days in any detail. It is Covid-19 pandemic, which bypass or certainly instructive to recall and ignore market-based incentives, free review the fundamental wisdom choice, and privacy, appear to have of the great British economists shaken the faith of many in our Henry Sidgwick, Arthur Cecil instincts. Pandemics are the mother Pigou and later James Meade of all externalities, both positive that I read in graduate school and and negative, and markets don’t do whose papers still belong on every externalities particularly well. good college reading list. It is star- Now we economists face an tling how quickly we have forgot- increasingly hard scientific con- ten their prescriptions of decisive LETTER FROM… 3

collective action over laissez-faire alternatives, even in response to the pandemic. This appears just as true of my German as my Brit- ish colleagues. As social beings, our economic problems inherently involve nonmarket interactions, certainly a large majority of what we do involves no market at all – if the time use data of our species are any indication, we spend only about a quarter of our time in mar- ket work and related activities. In the case of CO2 emissions, there is no Coasean assignment of survival rights that we can trade, and we will have to settle for a collective and global solution involving cap- and-trade for scarce emissions permits, Pigovian taxes on carbon emissions, or subsidies for R&D in renewable alternative energy sources to fossil fuels. But who will implement them? And where will the economists be? We have had some time to think sumer, it also has one of the most about this! Looking back at William improvable CO2 balances. The vot- Nordhaus’s February 1977 article ers will ultimately decide whether in the American Economic Review, The Greens promised Germany merely wants to talk the it seems that we are pretty much higher CO2 prices, and talk, or truly walk the walk. The on the laissez-faire path he pre- this ultimately implies lead of the Green party has melted dicted (see his figure on page 342), away in the recent summer heat. with pretty ugly consequences on higher petrol prices – a More damaging than the fudged the horizon. In a world where the dangerous third rail for credentials of their chancellor correct model and the tipping point car-crazy Germans candidate, the Greens promised are unknown, a risk-averse and higher CO2 prices, and this ulti- prudent Ramsey planner should mately implies higher petrol prices worry quite a bit about getting that – a dangerous third rail for car- upper bound wrong and err on the crazy Germans. Pledges to phase side of even more caution. Hayek’s icy and let others go first into the out coal-fired plants and tax subsi- adjuration on the pretext of knowl- breach. Yet another externality dies for chemicals and metallurgi- edge appears to be exactly the to deal with. The EU offers some cal industries mean that Germany wrong answer; inaction as capitula- coordination and bargaining power will have to get used to being a lit- tion to our own ignorance will seal in this regard – but where will it tle bit less competitive in the world our global fate, not solve it. One can lead globally? Will the UK and (and running smaller surpluses in only hope that newer data from the Commonwealth nations be on the energy-intensive exports). Voters recent lock-down interruption in same side? Is the US really back in may have already recognized that carbon emissions will provide dis- the game? Will the central banks voting with their pocketbook and positive evidence. of the world end up stepping in if letting others clean up the envi- Even if it does: can a liberal, the political process fails? ronment is a dominant strategy. informed democratic electorate Germany’s parliamentary elec- On this rather sombre note and better internalize the externali- tions in September illustrate this not knowing the outcome of Wem- ties of climate change than total- conflict. One of the most ener- bley on June 29: May the best itarian, illiberal regimes? Each gy-dependent economies in Europe team win! and every nation in Europe could claims to have one of the most Very warm greetings from a afford to emit a lot less carbon pronounced green consciences. Yet very warm Berlin dioxide, yet each is tempted to as a leading global manufacturing follow a “beggar thy neighbor” pol- nation, exporter, and energy con- Michael Burda, 27 June 2021 4 CONFERENCE REPORT

The RES Conference 2021 The Editor reports on this year’s RES conference

ince early 2020, the world These were not the only firsts. I was also fortified by the exam- has often reached us through To the best of my knowledge, I am ple set by previous rapporteurs, Sfibre-optic cables and copper the first conference rapporteur to most of them professional journal- wires. Early in 2021, the Royal report on the conference without ists, some now well-known figures. Economic Society nudged some ever leaving the house. This comes Their reports still make interest- electrons in my direction, asking all too naturally to me. As the ing reading, with serious points to me to report on another stream journalist Tim Dowling once wrote make as well as jokes. One theme of electrons, the 2021 Conference. of himself, it can seem that I was has been the disjunction between This would be the first RES confer- born to live under some form of the aims of researchers, intent ence for two years, since the 2020 house arrest. But armed with sup- on careful presentations that event had to be cancelled as the plies of teabags and crisps, I felt can withstand criticism, and the pandemic took hold, and the first ready for anything, perhaps even desire of audiences to see vigorous to be held entirely online. econometric theory. debate, or even creative ferment. CONFERENCE REPORT 5

But more of that later. remote, distant figure at a lectern. First, some background. This year, we had the quasi-in- Although online, the conference was timacy of being addressed by a held in association with Queen’s speaker sitting at their computer: University Belfast. There were not always better or worse, but more than 900 delegates, from more certainly different. than 35 countries. The programme chair was Ricardo Reis of the LSE, Past President’s Address – and others with key roles included Lord Stern Coralie Simmons, Michael McMa- The first keynote was given by hon (the Conference Secretary of Lord Stern of the LSE, in his Past the RES), and at Queen’s, Renee President’s Address. He began Prendergast and John Turner. with a summary of the outlook Ahead of the event, I logged for the climate. The science is into the conference software, ever more worrying, as some which proved easy to use. I made effects come through faster than a preliminary selection of what expected. The next decade will be I wanted to see, and there was critical. Current investments in much I was actively looking for- urbanization and infrastructure ward to – not an inevitable feeling will have lasting effects and must ahead of a conference. look different from what we have now. When someone as well-in- formed as Lord Stern warns that MONDAY we have reached “a key moment in DAY 12 APRIL world history”, he is not resorting to hyperbole. His address implied 1 I opened with a state- that, once the scale of the climate ment of intent, having chosen problem has been recognized, it a 9am econometrics session. In fills the sky. making this choice, I recalled the Or should fill the sky. Lord words of a colleague, that econo- Stern also gave a brief overview metric theory has reached a point of climate research by economists where even the questions are and sketched how it will need hard to understand, let alone the to change. Some conventional answers. But the papers in this tools have been misapplied, and session were clearly presented the stakes are immense, espe- and the results valuable. I under- cially given the scope for crossing stood rather less than 100% but, thresholds in the climate. Analysis as I used to tell research students, should acknowledge extreme risks sometimes that’s enough. It helped and pervasive market failures, This would be the first RES that one talk was on robust meth- along with rapid technical change. ods for two-stage least squares, There are a few grounds for conference for two years, a topic close to my heart: I have optimism, as the need for action since the 2020 event had never understood why economists becomes clearer to politicians and to be cancelled as the rely so heavily on an estimator as the public; but the climate should fragile as least squares. receive far more attention from pandemic took hold, and 11am came around at the economists than it has to date. It the first to be held entirely expected time, together with the seemed hard to disagree. Other online first keynote. Before the confer- lectures at the conference had ence started, I had wondered more formal analysis, but this had whether the invited lectures would an urgency and importance that lose from the move online. When few could match. hundreds of delegates assemble in person to hear someone distin- The Economic Journal Lecture guished, there is a sense of theatre In the afternoon, Matthew lacking in the online version. On Gentzkow, Landau Professor of the other hand, the speaker in a Technology and the Economy at large lecture theatre can seem a Stanford, gave the Economic Jour- 6 CONFERENCE REPORT

The Lanyon Building, Queen’s University, Belfast (image: Nick Birse)

nal Lecture, on digital media and ment, suggesting that addiction well-being. He chose a topic where may be a genuine risk. In the dis- the ratio of popular speculation to cussion, Professor Gentzkow noted hard evidence has been especially Although online, the that the most serious effects of high: are digital media ruining our conference was held in social media may be harms caused lives? As with most of the keynote association with Queen’s to a small minority. He did not speakers, his lecture drew on pub- need to add the obvious rider: rare lished and unpublished work with University Belfast. There but damaging effects are not easy other researchers. were more than 900 to study using experiments. Professor Gentzkow noted delegates, from more than that smartphones have greatly changed our use of time, as TV did 35 countries TUESDAY for earlier generations. He quoted DAY 13 APRIL the writer Douglas Adams, from The Salmon of Doubt: “Anything 2 On Tuesday morning, I that is in the world when you’re sampled some of the parallel ses- born is normal and ordinary and is whom Facebook was temporarily sions. In one of these, Erin Hengel just a natural part of the way the deactivated, valued their use of presented striking findings from world works… Anything invented it about 15% less afterwards, and her work with Eunyoung Moon after you’re thirty-five is against their average self-reported well-be- on citation patterns. Conditional the natural order of things.” ing rose slightly. They were less on publication, articles by women (Those over thirty-five are right, informed about politics, and less are cited more than articles by by the way.) engaged by it, but also less polar- men; men are cited more when The lecture considered two ized. This suggests a complicated they co-author with women, condi- experiments in particular. The picture, moving the debate beyond tional on author fixed effects; and first studied the effects of avoid- instinctive reactions. senior men are cited more when ing Facebook, using a randomized The second experiment, also co-authoring with early-career trial in 2018. Use of Facebook is randomized, gave people incen- women. For an earlier introduction valued quite highly; according to tives to limit their use of some to these findings, which are sure one estimate for the United States, popular apps. The results implied to prompt discussion, see the July it generates about $31 billion of that many would like to use their 2020 issue of the Newsletter. consumer surplus each month. smartphones less. Usage was One innovation this year was a People in the treatment group, for lower after the end of the treat- daily “lunchtime chat”. Tuesday’s CONFERENCE REPORT 7

event saw Sir Tim Besley and Sir is true even for experimental data, Prassl noted that the questions Angus Deaton discuss the Farewell with implications for the future could be framed differently from Letter from America, published in design of experiments as well as concerns about the future. At least the April 2021 issue of the News- the analysis of observational data. in the UK, reforms in areas such letter. The conversation ranged Professor Imbens took unusual as taxation, social security, and widely and enjoyably over the fifty care to distinguish between data labour law are already overdue. Letters, just as their readers would sets with varying cross-section and After two full days, I had spent expect. It often touched on changes time dimensions, and different a little time reflecting on the gains in economics over recent decades. patterns of treatment assignment. and losses of holding a confer- American researchers have become Seen as a whole, the lecture con- ence online. These probably vary more engaged with inequality, veyed the sense of an exciting field across people and different types poverty, and tax policy; but as moving quickly, with much impor- of event. At a large in-person con- conceptions of economics have wid- tant work still to be done. It seems ference, the shy or socially timid ened, its future has become harder likely that applied researchers at can find themselves stranded on to predict. There may be less sense many future conferences – not to the periphery. For senior figures, of a clear, well-defined “runway” mention writers of the next gen- I imagine there is sometimes an from which young researchers can eration of econometrics textbooks opposite problem: they know too easily take off. – will draw on the ideas so well many people rather than too few. Later, Sir Angus observed that surveyed here. It is the people in between, with social divisions in the US dif- some contacts but happy to make fer from those in the UK. There Interim reflections more, who might lose the most. It are differences in the sources of The day ended with an evening would be easy to regret not see- respect and what Adam Smith panel discussion on “The Future ing old friends, the loss of chance called “esteem”. Where these lead of Work”; this is surely one of meetings, and the lack of unex- to polarization, this could under- the great evergreen titles, like pected conversations that lead mine democracy. This prompted a “Whither the Novel?” or “The somewhere new. brief exchange on whether welfare Crisis in American Democracy”. Some observers of past confer- economics needs some rethinking, The speakers were Abi Adams- ences have wanted to see more a hard task. As a thought-provok- Prassl, Joel Mokyr, and Anna contention and debate. This year, ing conversation drew to a close – Salomons; the panel was organized it was not easy for speakers in and I would happily have listened by Queen’s University Belfast and special sessions to interact with in for rather longer – Sir Tim Bes- chaired by Luís Guimarães. The each other, but some of the online ley underlined how much the RES speakers differed in their chosen exchanges with audiences worked has appreciated Sir Angus’s will- approach and style, which made well. Beyond the main events, ingness to contribute the Letters. for an enjoyable and unpredicta- the RES sought to draw people ble discussion, more freewheeling together by means of online “cof- The Sargan Lecture than a keynote lecture. Dr Adams- fee chat” sessions. Online interac- From one hard task to another: the Sargan lecturer has to make technical material come alive for an audience varying in statistical expertise. There have been excel- lent examples over the years, but it must take some doing. I had been looking forward to the lec- ture by Professor Guido Imbens of Stanford, and it did not disappoint. He surveyed recent work on panel data models with binary treat- ments, combining difference-in-dif- ferences with ideas from the syn- thetic control literature. Professor Imbens used simulation results to show that a combination can improve on existing methods. This

Lord Stern, who gave a Past President’s Address 8 CONFERENCE REPORT

tion is an imperfect substitute for the real thing, but at least it was harder than usual for attendees to come to blows over the appro- priate social discount rate or the true value of the elasticity of substitution. Readers with espe- cially long memories may recall the Aggregation Riot of 1973 – no, I’m making this up. Among the parallel sessions, I had the sense that speakers were often more polished and less nerv- ous than is the norm. For those attending, it seemed easy to come and go at whim, without the awkwardness (and sometimes rudeness) of leaving or entering the room that arises in real life. But whether losing the tacit commitment to a whole session is an overall gain or loss would need a skilled behavioural economist to Dame Rachel Griffith, who gave a Past President’s Address disentangle. of advertising bans may be par- tially offset by lower prices. WEDNESDAY Professor Griffith suggested DAY 14 APRIL Professor Griffith suggested that governments must do more: 3 that governments must do partly to alter the choice environ- In recent decades, we more: partly to alter the ment, partly to lessen the strains have learned how the economics of deprivation that can work of “nudge” spans both enlightened choice environment, partly against good choices. The ensuing public policy and creative forms of to lessen the strains of discussion raised the deep ques- self-help. In the spirit of the latter, deprivation that can work tion of paternalism and the extent my habitual practice – and this to which governments should is advice that I am happy to offer against good choices intervene. For me, and I suspect freely – is to eat crisps only on for many others, this excellent Tuesdays. But once the final day lecture and discussion were among of the conference came around, I the highlights of the conference. feared that a loss of self-discipline was likely. The lecture included other strik- The Hahn Lecture ing charts and evidence in areas The final event, on Wednesday Past President’s Address – such as sugar consumption – at afternoon, was the Hahn Lec- Dame Rachel Griffith least in the UK, most people eat ture by Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln, This brings me to the second Past far too much sugar. The prob- Professor of Macroeconomics and President’s address, given by lem seems especially serious at Development at Goethe Univer- Dame Rachel Griffith, Professor younger ages and can be found in sity Frankfurt. The topic could of Economics at the University many countries. In response, there not have been more timely: the of Manchester. Professor Griffith are now soda taxes in more than effects of school closures during gave an overview of work on obe- 50 jurisdictions. Professor Griffith the pandemic. Drawing on recent sity and public policy, reflecting on cited some of her published work, work with co-authors, Professor an alarming set of developments. which finds that soda taxes help in Fuchs-Schündeln used a structural In England, obesity has trended lowering the sugar intake of chil- model of households to examine upwards since the early 1990s. dren, and have led manufacturers the effects of closures on children Now, almost one in three adults to reformulate their drinks. Other via missed education and lower is classed as obese on a standard work has studied the effects of future earnings. definition, and obesity-related hos- restricting the advertising of junk In the model, human capital pital admissions have risen. food, although the health benefits is gained through government CONFERENCE REPORT 9

I imagine the RES will study the feedback from delegates with great interest. The lower cost, the lower carbon footprint, the easy access to recordings of special sessions, the convenience, the ability to come and go at whim – these are significant gains

investment (spending on schools) estimates of welfare effects would experience, the human situation. and the money and time of par- be hard to improve upon through Given my reservations before- ents. As in much recent work on other methods. It will be many hand, I had expected to end my childhood development, human years before good statistical evi- report with something like this: capital gained today influences dence is available, and even then, the internet has its moments, but the investment process tomorrow; the leap between data and wel- real life is better. hence the analysis suggested fare effects would be a large one. But on later reflection, that that the welfare costs of closing The work presented by Professor seemed too pat, and would not schools are modestly convex in Fuchs-Schündeln seems likely to do justice to a successful event. I the length of the closures. For a be a standard reference in the area imagine the RES will study the six-month closure within a two- for years to come. feedback from delegates with great year period, the lifetime welfare interest. The lower cost, the lower loss to children is not enormous: carbon footprint, the easy access to equivalent to about -0.55% in CONCLUSION recordings of special sessions, the terms of consumption-equiva- As the conference drew to a convenience, the ability to come lent variation. The losses would close, it was time to take stock. and go at whim – these are signif- be higher without parental This year’s organizers had to icant gains. Some of the online responses and were found to be optimize subject to unusual con- question-and-answer discussions higher for children from disad- straints, and achieved this with worked especially well. Perhaps vantaged households. More spec- distinction. Nearly everything there will one day be scope to run ulatively, online schooling – not ran smoothly, with only minor hybrid events, partially online. modelled – might be effective in glitches. Matthew Gentzkow’s In much the same way that some some households and less so in talk was briefly interrupted when lecturers have “flipped” the class- others, perhaps increasing the his dog asked a question, but most room, a few sessions could be dispersion in welfare losses. of the time, the boundary between online – say on the preceding Fri- Other considerations that are physical reality and the cyber- day – and then discussed in person hard to model include the loss of sphere remained intact. The event at the conference. social contact, stress on parents could not have gone much better, After the event, there was much and children, and the long-run and there must have been a lot to think about in the spring sun- fiscal consequences. In any case, of painstaking work behind the shine. I had left the conference as Professor Fuchs-Schündeln scenes to keep it on course. with a new enthusiasm and appe- noted, the health benefits of Will this be the future of con- tite for research, which is a good school closures are too uncertain ferences? I was more than a little test. The internet has its moments. to allow a full cost-benefit anal- sceptical beforehand. I expected ysis. In the discussion, she also to miss the shared tea breaks, the noted that governments should gossip, even browsing the book RES CONFERENCE 2021 act quickly to remedy the problem stalls. In practice, what I missed For online access to most of the and focus on children from disad- most was variety. However good keynote lectures, lunchtime chats, vantaged households. the sessions – and some of them and special sessions, see: The lecture illustrated the were very good – time spent at a value of structural methods in computer can become monotonous. https://www.res.org.uk/ action, especially for certain types As many have found under lock- event-listing/2021-annual-confer- of question. As things stand, the down, we need variety in location, ence.html 10 PROFILE

The Profile:Dame Carol Propper

Where ideas come from, and the creative process

In our latest profile, we put some questions to Past RES President, Dame Carol Propper of Imperial College London

Let’s start with your background, and often under-recognised in many professions, how it has shaped you. including academia and economics. But I My parents were immigrants to the UK and also admire people who have great ideas. their only close relatives lived outside the UK. I think this gave me both an outsider’s Is there a book or paper that you think and – because I was born in the UK – an all economists should read? insider’s perspective on British life. That As an undergraduate I was quite inspired insider/outsider perspective has definitely by the work of John Kenneth Galbraith and spread over into my adult life and my aca- also Silent Spring by Rachel Carson. In demic life and interests. terms of economics books, I really enjoyed I never thought that I would have an aca- Freakonomics by Steven Levitt and Ste- demic career, as hardly anyone in my family phen Dubner when it first came out. But had ever attended university. Nor did I there are many great papers written by think about being an economist. At school economists to read. I am one of the editors I was interested in languages, science, and of VoxEU, and as part of that I read a lot of humanities and I studied economics because recent working papers and really enjoy that it seemed to combine at least two of those – it’s great seeing how ideas develop. interests (and would have loved to combine it with a language as well, but that wasn’t Do you believe in sudden breakthroughs? on offer when I went to university). I do think you can have ‘ahah’ moments It took quite a long time for me to decide and I’ve had them, but I also think break- that academia was a path I wanted to pur- throughs come from the accretion of ideas sue – before that I was a community worker which come together. And, of course, also in low-income communities and also worked come during discussion and collaboration as an economist in a consultancy. I think with others. For me that’s a really impor- this has given me a concern for equity and tant part of the creative process that is fairness and an enduring interest in the research, and there are many studies which economics of the public sector more gener- show that being with others and being ally. I think having an outsider’s perceptive physically close to others increases the rate is important for many academics – it allows of innovation. I’ve been very lucky to have them to step back and analyse different had great co-authors over my career, and environments and problems. one of the most difficult things for me dur- ing the Covid epidemic has been the fact Are there people you especially admire? that I’ve not been able to get together in I admire many people, especially those who person with my co-authors – Zoom for me is choose to challenge the status quo and those a poor substitute for thinking deeply about who provide public service, which I think is ideas collectively. PROFILE 11

to the economics of the environment. It seems to me to be a very rich field to which economists, working with economists and also with other academics, can make a big contribution. Economics allows us to approach topics and evaluate whether certain policies will actually improve social welfare. The results from this may not always accord with the current consen- sus, whatever that is, and one of the big strengths of economics as a discipline is that it can show why certain ‘popular’ poli- cies may not have the effects that everyone is hoping for.

What advice would you like to give your younger self? Be more confident. Believe in your own ideas and your own approach. This is some- thing I have to tell myself often. Also, my advice to those starting out is to seek out others as mentors. When I finished my PhD there was no discussion of mentorship at all, but that has changed, and I see it as a really important component of having support as an academic. So I’d encourage I have been approached to write everyone to take advantage of any mentor- articles on sheep husbandry ship programmes that are available. Is there a book on your shelves we might be surprised to find there? I think probably you would be surprised Do you have a favourite among your how few books there are on my shelves. publications? Is there one you would like When I read a good book, I want others to be better known? to enjoy it too, so have a policy of giving I don’t have one single favourite, but I am away books that I’ve really enjoyed. proud of the work that I and my many great Recent fiction books I loved include Wolf co-authors have written on the benefits and Hall and Bringing up the Bodies; there costs of competition in healthcare and the are too many non-fiction ones to select a use of incentives – monetary and non-mone- recent favourite. I also love podcasts – tary – in the provision of public services. I think listening to ideas makes them One paper of mine that I feel is a bit of a very immediate. lost soul is a paper I wrote with Daniel Jones and Sarah Smith, called Wolves in Sheep’s What makes you pessimistic about the Clothing. It’s actually about the impact of world, and what optimistic? publication of quality signals about medical Conflict, war, and discrimination make care providers on non-profit firms. But as a me pessimistic. On a narrower note, I result of that title, I have been approached get depressed by policymakers not being to write articles on sheep husbandry and able to implement policies that have been invited to speak at conferences on the ben- shown to have benefits (sometimes they efits of re-introducing wolves. Lesson – be do not even want any evidence). I do careful with your paper titles… understand why, but it can be very frus- trating. But then I am cheered up by the Are there areas of economics which you fact that there are individuals who manage think are under-researched? Which field incredible things even when facing huge might you be drawn to if you were start- amounts of adversity, and there ing your career now? are changes in attitudes and ideas that I think if I were starting now, I’d be drawn do happen. 12 WEALTH TAX

The case for a one-off wealth tax

Arun Advani, of the University of Warwick, CAGE, and the IFS, makes an economic case for a one-off wealth tax

The author

ARUN ADVANI UNIVERSITY OF WARWICK, CAGE, AND THE IFS

he numbers are now in, and we know that more than T£300 billion was added to UK government debt in 2020. That is getting towards half the gov- ernment budget in a normal year. Naturally, this has led to debate as to whether and when we need to ‘pay down’ the debt: should this be done quickly, slowly, or not at all, relying on growth and inflation to reduce the real value of the debt? Whatever the views of macro- First, in contrast to the tra- economists, the Chancellor’s own ditional view, there is serious view, at this year’s Budget, is money available. The Commission that it would be “irresponsible to A wealth tax was significantly had no view on how much should allow our future borrowing and more popular than other be raised; indeed, we built a tax debt to rise unchecked.” This does ways of raising revenue simulator precisely so people not mean paying off the existing could design their own tax: http:// debt, but highlights a desire to taxsimulator.ukwealth.tax/. But close the gap between taxes and we gave some examples of what spending quickly. So how should might be possible. this be done? coronavirus”: raising tax after A 5% tax on wealth net of mort- The traditional view is that to Covid-19 would look a lot like tax gages and other debt, paid as 1% a raise serious money in the UK, before Covid-19 in terms of where year over five years on the portion there are only three options: the money comes from, though of individual wealth that exceeds Income Tax, National Insurance there are some distortions that £500,000, would raise £260 billion. Contributions (essentially an addi- might be reduced. At more than £50 billion a year for tional income tax on employment The Wealth Tax Commission five years, that is more than the income), and VAT, which taxes – of which I was a Commissioner structural deficit – the long-term most spending. This view was – came to a different view. It high- gap between taxes and spend- articulated by all the witnesses at lighted that if tax is to be raised in ing – as estimated by the Office the first hearing of the Treasury the short term, a one-off wealth tax for Budget Responsibility, and it Select Committee on “Tax after (OWT) would be the way to do it. would be paid by the wealthiest WEALTH TAX 13

sixth of adults. Starting the same In practice, an OWT would fall tax at a threshold of £2 million in more heavily on older individuals. References individual wealth covers the top People close to retirement tend to 1% of adults, and would raise £80 have more wealth than those early Guvenen, F., Kambourov, G., billion in total. in their careers. In the current Kuruscu, B., Ocampo, S., and Second, it is efficient. Many econ- context, that might be thought of Chen, D. (2019). Use it or lose omists dislike annual wealth taxes, as an advantage. Older individuals it: efficiency gains from wealth arguing that they unnecessarily have generally been less hurt by taxation. Manuscript, Universi- distort savings. Others have argued the economic impacts of the crisis ty of Minnesota. that such taxes encourage better while having been the main bene- investment of wealth (‘use-it-or- ficiaries of the lockdown measures, Meade, J., Ironside, D., Avery lose-it’, as argued by Guvenen et al. since Covid-19 is more dangerous Jones, J., Bell, L., Flemming, J., 2019). Or that wealth provides ben- for them. As a group, these older Kay, J.A., King, M., Macdonald, efits such as ‘security, independ- individuals also benefitted from a M., Sandford, C., Whittington, ence, influence and power’ (Meade period of strong house price and G., and Willis, J. (1978). et al., 1978) – not just a transfer of wage growth: they have accumu- The structure and reform of value over time – in which case it lated more wealth than other gen- direct taxation. London: George ought to be explicitly taxed. erations can expect to in future. Allen & Unwin. Either way, an OWT is a Finally, an OWT will be only a different beast. It would be based temporary fix while the economy on wealth at a past point in time, recovers: additional tax revenue Further reading so does not distort future incen- will come from income taxes, which tives to work, save, or invest. This will be paid much more by younger The website of the is particularly important if con- generations who have more years of Wealth Tax Commission: sidering tax rises now, at a time work ahead of them. http://www.wealthtax when unemployment is high and Since the financial crisis, low commission.uk/ many businesses are struggling. interest rates and quantitative The pre-determined nature of the easing have been used to sup- Final report of the tax also removes the ability to port the macroeconomy. This Wealth Tax Commission: avoid the tax. has increased asset prices, and https://dx.doi.org/10.47445/ Third, and most importantly, therefore had unintended distri- WealthTaxFinalReport it is fair. A poll tax would also be butional consequence by providing efficient, because people couldn’t windfall gains to owners of wealth FAQs answered here: avoid it, and at high enough rates relative to those without wealth. https://www.wealthandpolicy. could also raise substantial rev- A one-off wealth tax would (par- com/wp/WealthTaxFinalRe- enue. But going from history, it tially) offset this. port_FAQ.pdf wouldn’t be seen as fair. Critical to An OWT would also be popu- the argument for an OWT is that lar. The Commission conducted Advani, A., Hughson, H., and it is also fairer than alternative a detailed study of public opinion Tarrant, H. (2020). Revenue and tax options. It helps that it is also based on a wide group of tax- distributional modelling for a implementable (see the WTC Final payers, using surveys and focus wealth tax. Wealth Tax Com- Report for details). There are four groups, calling on Ipsos MORI mission Evidence Paper, 13. arguments in favour: ability to expertise. We found that a wealth pay, intergenerational fairness, tax was significantly more popular Rowlingson, K., Sood, A., and offsetting macroeconomic policy, than other ways of raising reve- Tu, T. (2020). Public attitudes and popular consent. nue across all taxpayer groups, to a wealth tax. Wealth Tax Wealth is literally a measure including those who would have to Commission Evidence Paper, 2. of the resources an individual has pay it, and irrespective of age and available to buy things, to insure political persuasion. Importantly, themselves against risks, and to a wealth tax was three times more provide opportunities for them- popular than raising top rates of Readers with views on this topic selves and their families. In that income tax, so this support was are invited to write to the Editor sense it maps well on to ‘ability more than pure self-interest. to pay’. The pandemic is no-one’s Ideally, no-one would need to fault, but if there are going to be pay more tax. But if tax rises are to tax rises in the aftermath, it makes come, a one-off wealth tax is a better sense for those with the broadest option in the short term than rais- shoulders to bear more of the cost. ing taxes on income and spending. 14 BIODIVERSITY

The Dasgupta Review

Sir Partha Dasgupta, RES Past President, answers our questions about biodiversity and his landmark Review

How did you come to write the Review? Chief Economist at the Bank of England, In April 2019 I was invited by the Chancellor the Managing Director of the IMF, and the of the Exchequer to prepare an independent, Director of the LSE. On the other hand, global review of the economics of biodiversity. other than you and Ned Phelps, I have not been invited by anyone in any university eco- Did you have a sense of what was nomics department to discuss the Review. expected of it? No, nor for that matter did I know where Were there sections that were especially I would be heading with it. For a while I difficult to write? thought I would elaborate on environmental No. Interestingly, though, the chapters and resource economics, using the received that had no ready template in the econom- economics of climate change as a template. It ics literature were the easiest to compose. wasn’t until November 2019 that I realised it The harder ones were those on which there would be a disservice to the UK government is an extensive mainstream literature, but if I did that. I felt instead that what was which I found to be inadequate for putting wanted was a treatise on the economics of the to work on the demands we make on the biosphere, as all-encompassing a subject as biosphere. Finding my way through those there is for us social scientists. I was ready to mazes took a while. attempt that, because over the previous three decades I had been educated in anthropology, Have you had some reactions to the demography, ecology, and the Earth sciences formal theory presented in the Review? by some of the world’s most renowned Each chapter draft was sent out for review, experts. My thought was to rework growth in several cases by four or more experts. and development economics and the eco- Mostly they were anonymous, as my team nomics of poverty by embedding the human handled the process, but I was able to economy in Nature, not keeping it external to identify them by reading their style. I can’t Nature. The Review is that exercise. recall a single negative review. Mostly, reviewers pointed me to material I had How has the Review been received? missed or ideas that I hadn’t paid sufficient Have there been responses that espe- attention to. In one, striking instance, an cially pleased you, or others that were Earth scientist suggested I reorder the especially frustrating? chapters and reorder the sections of the It’s hard to tell how it has been received chapter he had been asked to read. I fol- generally, because understandably, there lowed his advice, of course, but I was struck has been self-selection at work. Those who by how deeply he had thought through the have invited me to participate in events – to chapters he had read – he had asked to be date over 100 events, involving interviews, sent all chapters. lectures, Q&As – have presumably done so because they are concerned about the state The Review asks economists to rethink of the biosphere. I have been struck by how how they frame growth and develop- informed and enquiring are those business ment – if you had to persuade a sceptic, leaders, bankers, and parliamentarians who what would you say first? have discussed the Review with me. There I would ask sceptics to compare what have been unexpected hosts, such as the mainstream growth and development BIODIVERSITY 15

Image: J. Lokrantz/Azote based on Steffen et al. 2015.

economics and the economics of poverty One reading of the Review is that econo- say about economic possibilities open to mists should focus on planetary bounda- us, and what the Review says, and place ries rather than try to choose functional the two before the vast gap that now exists forms and parameters for quantitative between the demands humanity today modelling of the whole biosphere. Is that makes on the biosphere, and the ability of a fair reading? the biosphere to meet those demands on The ordering in your question is exactly right. a sustainable basis. The Review has four Fighting fires requires first a brisk appraisal chapters that collate and explain empirical of relative dangers to the terrain. Fine tuning estimates of that gap. the fire-fighting strategy comes later. 16 BIODIVERSITY

Fighting fires requires first a brisk appraisal of relative dangers to the terrain. Fine tuning the fire-fighting strategy comes later

Sir Partha Dasgupta

Are there intellectual parallels between I haven’t been alone. There are plenty of the economic analysis of biodiversity ecological economists, in Agri Econ. depart- and that of climate change? ments and Environmental Schools, some Yes, but the former is a lot harder than the are in geography departments – you won’t latter because the biosphere’s activities find them in economics departments. Some cover far more than climate regulation. study the economics of poverty, and many Moreover, the vast numbers of regulating teach in less-than-prominent universities – and maintenance services (soil regenera- in South Asia, Latin America, and Africa. tion, climate regulation, pollination, water It’s because of their isolation that Karl- filtration, nitrogen fixation, waste decompo- Goran Maler and I set things in motion sition, and so on) are complementary to one to establish the journal Environment and another, they are not independent of one Development Economics (EDE) so that another, far less, substitutes of one another. their work gets published in an interna- Separating climate regulation from the tional journal. What they have produced is rest has been a most unfortunate feature of terrific stuff. My Review cites and reports mainstream climate economics. their work at length and builds on them.

How can national and local governments Do you think economists are, albeit in rich countries best lower the ecolog- belatedly, becoming more open to the ical footprints of their citizens? Where importance of biodiversity and more should they start? inclusive concepts of wealth? At the local level, invest a lot more toward ‘No’ to the first and ‘yes’ to the second. creating green spaces in urban areas – there Even the second took time to be absorbed in are serious health benefits from doing that. mainstream economics, which was surpris- At the national level, reduce environmental- ing to me because Maler and I proved the ly-harmful subsidies (currently to the tune of equivalence between wealth and well-being 4-6 trillion US dollars a year globally). At the analytically, in EDE in 2000. I used to think international level help to create a transna- a theorem is a theorem, but I was wrong. As tional institution with the remit to manage late as 2004 I received a letter from one of the global commons such as the open seas the world’s most prominent climate econo- (e.g. charging people for their use) and help to mists, in which he wrote that the “the jury negotiate resource transfers to countries that was still out” on the theorem. house peatlands and the tropical rainforests (they are global public goods). Crude calcula- How can governments in rich countries tions suggest that such an institution could be ensure that consumption is lower self-supporting, perhaps even enjoy a surplus than a net measure of domestic that could be used for development purposes. product, accounting for net changes in natural capital? Your interest in these questions goes Try as far as is possible to make us pay the back a long way. How frustrated have marginal social cost of what we consume you been that mainstream economists and introduce fiscal measures to encour- were slow to take an interest? age society to invest in such a manner that Puzzlement would be more accurate. But inclusive wealth does not decline over time. BIODIVERSITY 17

Do you have thoughts on how biodiver- The analysis in your book Time and the sity and inclusive wealth can best be inte- Generations might imply that aid donors grated into the economics curriculum? should place greater emphasis on family That should be easy. A start would be by planning. Is that a fair reading? recognising that ecosystems are capital Absolutely! The Review contains a chapter assets, followed by reading an ecology text- on the salience of family planning in the book. Any well-trained economist would see economics of biodiversity. Investment in how to incorporate natural capital in eco- family planning and reproductive health nomic life. Interestingly, I know of business is also the cheapest way I know to help schools where natural capital is included in empower women in the poorest countries the portfolio analysis that is taught. of the world. That OECD countries allocate less than 1% of their aid budget to it and For an economist who has read the Review recipient governments place it at the bottom and wants to learn more, what books or of their concerns is unconscionable. papers would you especially recommend? Choose a particular class of natural assets, say, What do you think of radical ideas such mangrove forests, and go to a textbook on ecol- as E. O. Wilson’s Half Earth? ogy to get a sense of the processes that shape Governments are moving in that direction of them. The obvious next step would be to read a thinking, for example, in a proposal that 30% paper, say, in EDE, on the way such assets can of land and the seas should be designated as be built into economic reasoning seamlessly. protected zones. That’s not 50%, but it’s the idea that counts. We should all be in favour of such a move but should still worry how we should manage the remaining 70%. We econ- I used to think a theorem is a theorem, omists know better than most others of unin- tended consequences of policies that need to but I was wrong be attended to in advance.

Contemplating the state of the planet can be depressing. Are there some devel- Do you have any reading recommenda- opments that are more positive? tions for the general reader? Plenty – at the community level as well as My own entry into ecological economics the national level. My Treasury team and I was the treatise EcoScience, by Anne and have not shied away from trumpeting them Paul Ehrlich and John Holdren. That was in the Review. in 1978. I translated the content of each chapter into mathematical models so as to better understand them. Today, there are a THE DASGUPTA REVIEW number of fine ecology textbooks. The one I The Economics of Biodiversity : have used most while preparing the Review The Dasgupta Review is the 2018 edition of a textbook by William Final and abridged versions can be found Bowman, Sally Hacker and Michael Cain. at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publi- [Editor’s note: there is also a 2020 edition by cations/final-report-the-economics-of-biodi- just Bowman and Hacker.] versity-the-dasgupta-review

References and further reading

Bowman, W. D. and Hacker, S. D. (2020). Ecology Dasgupta, P. and Maler, K. (2000). Net national (International fifth edition). OUP, New York. product, wealth, and social well-being. Environment and Development Economics, 5(1), 69-93. Bowman, W. D., Hacker, S. D. and Cain, M. L. (2018). Ecology. OUP, New York. Steffen, W. et al. (2015). Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing plan- Dasgupta, P. (2019). Time and the Generations: et. Science, 13 Feb 2015. To use the graphic, see: Population Ethics for a Diminishing Planet. Columbia https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/plan- University Press, New York. etary-boundaries.html 18 RES CONFERENCE SPECIAL SESSION

Economics and epidemiology

The Editor reports on a s the Covid-19 pandemic took saw an opportunity to reflect on Special Session at the hold in early 2020, it became the past year, asking how econ- Aclear that the world faced omists and epidemiologists have RES Conference, 2021 both a health crisis and an economic interacted, and how they might crisis, and neither could be under- work together in the future. The stood by economists or epidemiolo- session, organized by the Health gists working in isolation. Another Foundation and chaired by Miq- form of contagion began to take dad Asaria of the LSE, brought shape in seminar rooms and over together three researchers: Dr Abi broadband networks: one of ideas, Adams-Prassl, Associate Professor methods, theories, and evidence. in Economics at the University of The outcome was an unprecedented Oxford; Dr Kate Fleming, Senior research effort, moving with a speed Lecturer in Social Epidemiology that would not have been possible in at the University of Liverpool; the pre-internet era. and Dr Flavio Toxvaerd, Univer- At the 2021 RES conference, sity Lecturer in Economics at the the organizers of a special session University of Cambridge. RES CONFERENCE SPECIAL SESSION 19

DR ABI ADAMS-PRASSL can improve health overall, since such as difference-in-differences the sick are more likely to stay at and regression discontinuity In the first talk, Dr Adams-Prassl home. Given the rapid growth in designs; in the other direction, began by defining epidemiology, self-employment in the UK since economists have adopted rand- which “encompasses the study the financial crisis, the issue of omized trials long used in medi- of all factors that influence the sick pay for the self-employed has cine. Economists, epidemiologists, health of human populations” (see arisen. During a pandemic, invest- and governments need to think Murray 2020, quoting Porta 2014). ments should aim to make comply- anew about “primary prevention”, The definition implies that eco- ing with the rules less costly. and ideas such as distributional nomics and epidemiology intersect. Economists can also study how cost-effectiveness analysis (Asaria In the early stages of the pan- agents process information during et al. 2016). Shifting the overall demic, an explosion of research by crises, and how this affects behav- distribution of risk is often more economists took advantage of novel iour, as when randomized trials effective than focusing solely on ways to disseminate research, with shed light on messaging strategies. a high-risk group in terms of the more than 340 projects appearing Such work may be called upon overall burden of disease that over April and May 2020 alone. in future pandemics to help with can be prevented (Rose, 1985). Much of this activity is listed on targeting of effective communica- To date, economists have been either the Economics Observatory tion campaigns. Dr Adams-Prassl more attuned than epidemiolo- website or that of the CEPR. Many ended her talk with a quote allud- gists to behavioural changes and studies use real-time data or other ing to this possibility: “There is responses. Since health outcomes novel forms of data to reflect on no great mystery about the cause have a range of causes, epide- the reality of an economic crisis, as of the COVID-19 pandemic… The miologists and economists will well as a health crisis. same human activities that drive need to collaborate with several climate change and biodiversity disciplines. Estimates suggest loss also drive pandemic risk that public health measures and through their impacts on our envi- primary prevention can be highly ronment” (Dr Peter Daszak, from cost-effective on measures such as There was already evidence a 2020 workshop of the Intergov- cost per QALY (quality-adjusted ernmental Science-Policy Platform life-year), and the remaining before the pandemic that on Biodiversity and Ecosystem challenge will be to get such poli- better sick pay can improve Services, IPBES). cies enacted. health overall DR KATE FLEMING

Dr Fleming, in her presentation, Shifting the overall noted that epidemiology extends Drawing on Kaplan et al. beyond the science of disease. It distribution of risk is often (2020), Dr Adams-Prassl sketched includes her own field, the social more effective than focusing a possibility frontier tracing out influences on health outcomes. solely on a high-risk group livelihoods versus lives. Deci- The burdens of Covid-19 have sion-makers could seek to locate been unequally shared, partly on the frontier and look for ways to shaped by the living and working reshape it. In practice, the effects conditions people experience. Few of policy initiatives are hard to diseases have a single sufficient DR FLAVIO TOXVAERD assess, and economists must draw cause; for example, low incomes on their understanding of causal and poorer health interact In the final talk, Dr Toxvaerd inference. One example is Fet- and reinforce each other. More stressed the need for an integrated zer (2020), looking at the health broadly, pandemic preparedness approach to disease management, effects of the UK “eat out to help and population health are global combining understanding of the out” scheme to support the hospi- public goods for policymakers economy and epidemics. Arguably tality sector, which seems to have to consider. The UK could focus UK policy had been too compart- increased Covid-19 infections. on life-course and non-commu- mentalized, with separate expert Economists can also bring an nicable disease prevention more groups making recommendations understanding of incentives and than it presently does, to mitigate that may have come together only self-interest to ideas such as lump- against future ill health. on the desk of the Prime Minis- sum self-isolation payments. There Dr Fleming sketched how econ- ter. Ideally, policy advice would was already evidence before the omists could contribute. Epidemi- integrate the work of specialists pandemic that better sick pay ologists have drawn on methods at an earlier stage. The Treasury 20 RES CONFERENCE SPECIAL SESSION

may not have fully considered the health impacts of economic policies, while sub-committees of expert scientists stayed within their own fields of expertise.

Arguably UK policy had been too compartmentalized, with separate expert groups making recommendations that may have come together only on the desk of the Prime Minister

Economists and epidemiologists should collaborate to identify blind spots in scientific advice and build credible frameworks for overall cost-benefit analysis. Dr Toxvaerd noted that economists should not try to reinvent a par- allel or “baby” epidemiology from first principles. Instead, econo- mists can make a difference when they clarify objectives; consider adaptive versus forward-looking policies; look at disease control and mitigation of harms, such as measures to supplement school closures and lower their costs; and study the role of incentives when, for example, the incentives to get a Covid-19 test depend on post-test outcomes. In contrast to conventional in Human Epidemiology has also policy areas, the Covid-19 meas- addressed some of the issues. ures, though far-reaching, lacked The systemic inequalities a common analytical framework. DISCUSSION The public debate relied partly seen within developed on slogans and conjectures, and In the discussion that followed, countries pale next to sometimes became ill-tempered. Dr Toxvaerd suggested that the On collaboration, there are some interactions between economists global inequalities. Many recent initiatives which may be a and epidemiologists may be countries still lack vaccines sign of what the future holds. The where the economics of climate JUNIPER consortium (the Joint change was twenty years ago. For Universities Pandemic and Epide- Dr Adams-Prassl, the Covid-19 miological Research) is consulting recession has been notable for the economists, while an NSF-spon- speed at which high-quality work sored conference on Bridging Dis- was done. Dr Fleming indicated ciplinary Divides for Behaviorally that we should avoid the idea of Modulated Mathematical Models a “single point of truth”, since RES CONFERENCE SPECIAL SESSION 21

References and further reading

Asaria, M., Griffin, S. and Cook- son, R. (2016). Distributional cost-effectiveness analysis: a tutorial. Medical Decision Mak- ing, 36(1), 8-19.

Daszak, P. (2020). Quoted in IPBES Media Release, https:// www.ipbes.net/pandemics-me- dia-release

Fetzer, T. (2020). Subsidiz- ing the Spread of COVID-19: Evidence from the UK’s Eat- Out-to-Help-Out scheme. CAGE Working Paper, University of Warwick.

Kaplan, G., Moll, B. and Violan- te, G. (2020). The Great Lock- down and the Big Stimulus: tracing the pandemic possibil- ity frontier for the U. S. NBER working paper no. 27794.

Murray, E. J. (2020). Epidemiol- ogy’s time of need: COVID-19 calls for epidemic-related economics. Journal of Econom- ic Perspectives, 34 (4), 105-20 [open access]

Porta, M. (ed.) (2014). A Dictio- nary of Epidemiology. Oxford University Press, Oxford.

Rose, G. (1985). Sick individuals science evolves and often seeks to seemed clear that researchers will and sick populations. Interna- disprove itself. reflect on the Covid-19 pandemic tional Journal of Epidemiology, In terms of policy advice at this for years to come. Like climate 14(1), 32-38. point, it would be helpful to under- change, its analysis requires a stand heterogeneity in vaccine multidisciplinary approach and take-up; to manage expectations and an open mind. Ideas, theories, and Further reading avoid a narrative implying that the methods will spread and mutate. pandemic is over; and take short- That form of intellectual contagion COVID19 and the Northern term and long-term perspectives. has taken shape over the course of Powerhouse: https://www. The systemic inequalities seen this pandemic; it will be one of our thenhsa.co.uk/app/up- within developed countries pale next best defences against the next. loads/2020/11/NP-COVID-RE- to global inequalities. Many coun- PORT-101120-.pdf tries still lack vaccines, and Dr Tox- vaerd suggested that this question deserved a whole panel on its own. TO VIEW THE SESSION ONLINE Looking back on the session, https://www.youtube.com/c/Roy- after the conference was over, it alEconomicSociety 22 RES COMMITTEES

The Women’s Committee

The gender balance in UK economics Victoria Bateman and Erin Hengel, co-authors of the latest Women’s Committee Report, highlight a combination of improvement, retreat and stagnation

his year marks the 25th Women in academic was approximately 14%). Despite anniversary of the RES Wom- economics the reasonably strong overall Ten’s Committee. Since 1996, representation of minorities in the Committee has been monitor- economics, Black individuals are ing the gender balance within UK underrepresented (Advani et al, economics by publishing regular 2020). Black women face a further reports based on its own data col- penalty: while 39% of Asian eth- lection. In light of a falling response nicity lecturers were women, and rate and GDPR concerns, our latest 30% of white lecturers are women, report employs data supplied by of the roughly 25 Black lecturers the Higher Education Statistical in economics, no more than five Agency (HESA), covering the period were women. 2012/13–2018/19. These figures so far concern We consider the recent rep- In 2018/19 women represented more “traditional” contracts: those resentation of women within aca- 26% of economists, that are permanent, full-time, and demic economics – from the under- up from 18% in 1996 with both teaching and research graduate level through to the responsibilities. Women are bet- professorship – and strike compar- ter represented on teaching-only, isons that reveal both the direction research-only, and fixed term con- of movement and the potential for tracts (where they comprise 35%, improvement. As we summarise 40% and 30% of staff respectively). here, while progress has been Turning to the pipeline, full- made, there are also signs of stag- time student numbers on a stand- nation and retreat. ard economics degree programme Beginning with academics totalled 44,600 in 2018/19; of themselves, in 2018/19 women Women 27% of senior them, 15,630 were women (35%). represented 26% of economists, comprised lecturers/ The representation of women is up from 18% in 1996 (Mumford, 33% of readers especially poor among UK domi- 1997). At a more granular level, lecturers ciled students: women represented women comprised 33% of lecturers 27% of undergraduates, 31% of (versus 15% in 1996), 27% of sen- master’s students (versus 26% in ior lecturers/readers (versus 10% 1996) and 32% of PhD students in 1996) and 15% of professors (versus 25% in 1996). (versus 5% in 1996). Women are better represented While minority men held 17% among Black, Asian and minority of all traditional economic aca- ethnic (BAME) students than they demic posts in 2018/19, only 8% are among non-BAME students at of such posts were held by non- 15% of 8% of posts both the undergraduate and mas- white women (for comparison, the professors were held by ter’s level; the reverse is true for total minority share of the general non-white Ph.D. students. At undergraduate UK population at the last census women level, the percentage of women is RES COMMITTEES 23

highest among Asian (32%) and improvement is clear. Women have Black students (33%) and lowest consistently comprised at least half References among white students (25%); for of all foreign (non-EU) students economics Ph.D. students, however, and about 40% of all EU students Advani, A., Sen, S., and women’s representation was ten studying economics within the UK Warwick, R. (2020). Ethnic diver- percentage points higher among in recent years (2012-2019). In eco- sity in UK economics. Institute non-BAME students (35%) than it nomics departments elsewhere in for Fiscal Studies. was among BAME students (25%). Europe, better gender representa- Auriol, E., Freibel, G., Wein- Armed with these findings, our tion among academics can be found berger, A. and Wilhelm, S. (2020). report highlights a lack of gender in Ireland, Poland, Romania, and Women in European Economics: diversity within economics, com- Russia (Auriol et al., 2020). A Real-Time Monitoring Tool plementing burgeoning evidence Furthermore, UK women are (https://www.women-economics. elsewhere (Lundberg and Stearns, better represented among econo- com), accessed May 2021. 2019; Chevalier, 2020; Gamage mists outside of academia: in the et al. 2020). Although women’s Treasury, 38% of economic staff are Bank of England (2020). Annual representation has in many ways female (Cabinet Office, 2020); at Report and Accounts, 1 March improved over the last quarter of the Bank of England, 32% of senior 2019 – 29 February 2020. a century, there are some signs of staff are female, along with 46% of Bateman, V., Gamage, D. K., retreat and stagnation. their new graduate intake (Bank of Hengel, E. and Liu, X. (2021). Among students who are England, 2020); at the Institute for Report on the Status of Women UK-domiciled, the gender gap Fiscal Studies, 40% of all research- in Academic Economics within at both the undergraduate and ers listed on their website in May the UK. Royal Economic Society, masters level has been getting 2021 were female, and of those Women’s Committee Report. worse rather than better since employed purely by the IFS, 52% 2002, when women represented are female, while at NIESR, 45% Cabinet Office (2020). Civil 30.6% of undergraduates (vs. of researchers are female (verified servants by sex and ethnicity 27% in 2018/19) and just under web scrape, May 2021); across UK and disability and sexual orien- 37% of masters students (vs. 31% think tanks, 44% of researchers tation by profession and depart- in 2018/19) (Mitka et al. 2015). and 29% of senior researchers are ment, 2020. For staff, the percentage of both female (Smart Thinking, 2020). Chevalier, Judy (2020). The 2019 lecturers and professors on tradi- These figures are impressive com- Report of the Committee on the tional contracts who are women pared with academic economics. Status of Women in the Econom- increased by only two percentage The academic gender gap in UK ics Profession. American Eco- points between 2012–2018. Fur- economics is not inevitable, but its nomic Association. thermore, the percentage of South closure cannot be taken for granted. Gamage, D. K., Sevilla, A. and Asian professors who are women Halting retreat and continuing a Smith, S. (2020). Women in eco- has recently been on the decline, quarter of a century of progress will nomics: a UK perspective. Oxford and so too has the proportion of require concerted efforts. We hope Review of Economic Policy, 36 (4), Black lecturers who are women. that, alongside the Women’s Com- 962–982. Despite the signs of retreat mittee, UK institutions are ready and stagnation, the potential for to address the challenge. Lundberg, S., and Stearns, J. (2019). Women in economics: stalled progress. Journal of Eco- Women in non-academic economics nomic Perspectives, 33(1), 3–22. Mitka, M., Mumford, K. and 100 100 100 Sechel, C. (2015). The 10th Royal 90 Female economists 90 Female economists 90 Female economists Economic Society Women’s 80 Male economists 80 Male economists 80 Male economists

70 70 70 Committee Survey: The Gender

60 60 60 Balance of Academic Economics 50 50 50 in the UK 2014. 40 40 40

30 30 30 Mumford, K. (1997). The Gender 20 20 20 Balance of Academic Economics 10 10 10 in the UK. Royal Economic Soci- 0 0 0 ety, Women’s Committee Report. 38% of Treasury 32% of senior Bank 40% of IFS research Smart Thinking (2020). Diversity economic staff are of England economic staff are female in UK Think Tanks. female staff are female 24 RES JOURNALS

The Econometrics Journal

A year in the life of The Econometrics Journal

The author Submissions and reflects so favorably on the current decisions in 2020 editorial policy, but are also aware JAAP ABBRING that their continued effort is TILBURG UNIVERSITY needed to permanently establish the Journal as a leading outlet for research in econometrics. n 2020, the Editors of The 150 From the January 2020 issue Econometrics Journal handled onwards, the Editors have been I150 new submissions, up from 120 selecting a lead article for each 132 in each of the two previous issue of the Journal. Oxford Uni- 90 years, and 73 in 2017. In line with versity Press provides free online

the editorial policy since 2017, 60 access to this Editors’ Choice. The they usually (97%) communicated Editors have also selected one decisions on these submissions 30 paper in each of the three 2019 within three months and mostly issues to be highlighted as the 0 avoided major and multiple revi- 2017 2018 2019 2020 Editors’ Choice. sions. As in previous years, they The Econometrics Journal Following the Journal’s inau- quickly rejected about half of all handled 150 new submissions gural Virtual Issue on the Econo- new submissions without consult- metrics of Treatment Effects, the ing referees. Of the remaining new Editors compiled a second Virtual submissions, 93% received a deci- 100 Issue, with recent research on sion within three months, against the evaluation of unconventional 82-86% in the previous three years 80 monetary policy, high-dimensional and about 20% before 2017. forecasting, and other cutting-edge 60 Enabled by this increase in topics in macroeconometrics.

submissions and their quick 40 The Journal published a Spe- review, the Editors accepted 32 cial Issue on the Methodology papers in 2020, against 30, 13, and 20 and Applications of Structural 23 acceptances in the preceding Dynamic Models and Machine 0 years. This allowed the Journal 2017 2018 2019 2020 Learning, edited by John Rust, to include 24 papers in its 2020 93% of refereed papers Fedor Iskhakov, and Bertel issues, up from 16 papers in 2019. received a decision in 3 months Schjerning. This Special Issue The Editors aim to publish at followed from the Second Con- least 30 papers in 2021, ensuring ference on Structural Dynamic a healthy flow of published papers 35 Models, which focused on the use

without undue publication delays. 30 of machine learning and artificial The Journal’s Impact Factor intelligence to facilitate the solu- 25 increased to a record 2.139, taking tion and estimation of dynamic it ahead of its direct competitors. 20 structural models. Oxford Univer- As this measures the impact of 15 sity Press now provides free online

publications in 2017 and 2018, it 10 access to the editorials of this and is the first that may reflect the all other Special Issues. 5 Journal’s 2017 shift in editorial The Denis Sargan Econometrics 0 policy towards applied value and 2017 2018 2019 2020 Prize was awarded to Matt Gold- quick review. The Editors are The Journal accepted man and David M. Kaplan for their pleased that this first evidence 32 papers in 2020 article “Non-parametric inference RES JOURNALS 25

on (conditional) quantile differ- quantify the impact of Sweden’s ences and interquantile ranges, early Covid-19 response on infec- using L-statistics” in the Journal’s tions and mortality, was included June 2018 issue. Matt and David’s in the September 2020 issue. prizewinning article provides The Journal continued to check novel methods for nonparametric that all published papers come inference on unconditional and with complete, properly docu- conditional quantile differences and mented, and functional replica- interquantile ranges, with ample tion packages. These checks were guidance for practitioners. It illus- pioneered in 2017 and are now trates its usefulness with empir- handled routinely by a small local ical applications to the analyses team of research assistants. In of economies of scale in household 2021, the Society’s Data Editor consumption and worker effort in a will adopt this task into his team’s gift exchange experiment. work for the Economic Journal. The Journal was not immune The Editors rely heavily on the to Covid-19. It was forced to fast and high-quality peer review, postpone its Special Session on advice on editorial matters, and Econometrics of Dynamic Dis- ambassadorship of some of the crete Choice, with presentations world’s finest econometricians, the by Victor Aguirregabiria and Journal’s Associate Editors. They Martin Pesendorfer, and Serena are happy to report that Raffaella Ng’s Sargan lecture at the can- To aid the analysis of the Giacomini joined the Journal as an celled 2020 Annual Conference. pandemic, the Editors Associate Editor from 1 January It also had to pause plans for a strived to publish quickly 2020 and that Dacheng Xiu, Dan- workshop on experiments and iel Wilhelm, Demian Pouzo, Drew structural econometrics. To aid papers demonstrating the Creal, Marine Carrasco, Koen Joch- the analysis of the pandemic, the use of modern econometrics mans, and Michal Kolesar agreed Editors strived to publish quickly in such analysis to join from 1 January 2021. papers demonstrating the use Of course, the Associate Edi- of modern econometrics in such tors cannot do all the work. The analysis. The first of these, a Editors warmly thank the many paper by Stanley Cho that applies colleagues who have assisted the synthetic control methods to Journal as anonymous referees.

Editors’ Choice – recent articles

These articles published by The Econometrics Journal Helmut Lütkepohl, Mika Meitz, Aleksei Netšunajev, have been handpicked by the editors for their out- and Pentti Saikkonen (2021). Testing identification standing research. All the articles listed below are via heteroskedasticity in structural vector free to read online, as are the Editors’ Choice papers autoregressive models. The Econometrics Journal, from 2019. 24(1), 1–22.

Pedro Carneiro, Sokbae Lee, and Daniel Wilhelm James J. Heckman and Ganesh Karapakula (2021). (2020). Optimal data collection for randomized con- Using a satisficing model of experimenter deci- trol trials. The Econometrics Journal, 23(1), 1–31. sion-making to guide finite-sample inference for compromised experiments. The Econometrics Neng-Chieh Chang (2020). Double/debiased Journal, 24(2), C1-C39. machine learning for difference-in-differences mod- els. The Econometrics Journal, 23(2), 177–191. For a full list, please see: https://academic.oup.com/ectj/pages/editors-choice Sang-Wook (Stanley) Cho (2020). Quantifying the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions during For the RES Annual Conference 2018, Special Issue the COVID-19 outbreak: The case of Sweden. The on Structural Macroeconometrics, see The Econo- Econometrics Journal, 23(3), 323–344. metrics Journal, 24(1), January 2021. 26 NEWS

News…

Peter Neary 1950–2021

As many readers will know, Past RES President Peter Neary died on 16 June 2021. Tim Besley, RES Peter Neary President, has made a statement on behalf of the Society: 1950–2021 “It is with great sadness that the Royal Economic Society received the news that J. Peter Neary, a former President, has passed away at the age of 71. Peter was an eminent trade economist with many influential contribu- tions, among them his classic paper on Deindustrialization and the Dutch Disease, published in the Economic Journal. Peter was a household behaviour. Amanda much-valued member of the eco- Friedenberg brings expertise RES CONFERENCE 2021 nomics community in Ireland, the in microeconomic theory and, UK, and Europe more generally. in particular, game theory and For anyone who may have In 2014, he chaired the REF panel political economy. missed a key session at the 2021 in Economics and Econometrics, a Gilat Levy of the LSE and Joa- RES conference, we have made task that he handled with aplomb. chim Voth of the University of some of the conference content Like everything that Peter did, Zurich completed their terms as available on our website for you he took on the role as President of Managing Editors at the end of to enjoy at your leisure. the RES in 2017 with dedication, May 2021. The editorial board and seeking ways to increase the rele- the Royal Economic Society would vance of the Society and enhancing like to thank Gilat and Joachim as Andy Haldane, Ben Chu, and its standing. A larger-than-life for their outstanding service and Sharon White. Listen to our latest presence in any gathering that commitment to the Journal. episode on your favourite podcast he joined, he will be missed by all app. Like, subscribe, and share who knew him. On behalf of the with everyone you know! Society, I send our heartfelt con- Discover Economics For Pride Month in June we dolences to his colleagues, friends were over the moon to host ‘Pride and, above all, his family.” Discover Economics has been busy in Economics’ in collaboration with A full obituary will appear in a as ever. We’re very happy to intro- the RES. The event was chaired future issue of the newsletter. duce Anuoluwapo Adenuga to the by Evan Davis and celebrated the team as Communications Officer. stories and journeys of LGBTQI+ Anuoluwapo has launched our economists including Past Presi- The Economic Journal Instagram account and kicked off dent Dame Carol Propper! our fortnightly Newsletter! Make Coming up this month we The Economic Journal is delighted sure you follow us @DiscoverEcon have our Careers event taking to announce the appointments and sign up at: www.discovereco- Year 10 students on a journey of of Sule Alan, of the European nomics.co.uk. discovery through the different University Institute and Bilkent We’re also very proud of our new career opportunities available to University, and Amanda Frieden- podcast ‘How Did I Get Here?’. Lis- people with economics degrees. berg of the University of Arizona, ten to our host Jennifer as she talks Participants will get to hear from as Joint Managing Editors start- to economists from a whole range practising economists from a wide ing from 1 April 2021. Sule Alan of backgrounds and explores how range of sectors about the work brings expertise in education, they got to where they are today. they do, and why they love being migrant integration, gender, and You don’t want to miss guests such an economist. EVENTS 27

Events

RES Annual Conference 2021

The 2021 RES Annual Conference was held on 12-14 April 2021. The programme fea- tured three keynotes, two Past President Addresses, three new Lunchtime Chats, as well as a wide range of special and general sessions. A number of sessions including several keynotes and each Lunchtime Chat can be viewed at: https://www.res.org.uk/ resource-library-page/videos.html

Knowledge Transfer alents in Scotland and Northern participation for those prevented Projects grants Ireland. For more, including eligi- from travelling. bility criteria, visit: https://www. For successful applicants, these res.org.uk/essaycompetition.html will provide funding up to £2,000 RES Presents 2021 for projects to share expertise between academic and non-ac- Developments in RES Presents is an established ademic economists, or related Economics Education fixture in the Society’s calendar fields. The deadline is 30 Sep- and a great way to promote eco- tember 2021. Please see the RES The Economics Network’s elev- nomic debate among the wider website for details. enth Developments in Economics public. This year’s event took place Education (DEE) Conference will on 15 June supported by Queen’s take place on 1–3 September 2021 University Belfast and the Irish Essay Competition at Heriot-Watt University, Edin- Economic Association. Speakers burgh. The Developments in Eco- included Dr Martina Lawless, Eco- The 2021 Young Economist of the nomics Education conference is an nomic and Social Research Insti- Year competition is now open, opportunity to showcase research, tute; Dr Esmond Birnie, Ulster organised by the RES in partner- innovation, and best practice in University Business School; Ste- ship with the FT. The deadline for economics teaching. It is Europe’s phen Kinsella, University of Lim- submissions this year is 25 July, leading conference on economics erick; and Stuart Anderson, Con- with the winner to be announced in higher education. At the time of federation of British Industry. The in the autumn. Entrants are asked writing, the organisers hope that event was chaired by RES Past to submit an essay of up to 1,000 the conference can be held in per- President Dame Carol Propper. words on one of five given topics. son at Heriot-Watt. However, the To watch the recording please The competition is for year 12 and Economics Network are seeking to go to: https://www.youtube.com/ year 13 students and their equiv- maximise the possibility of online user/RoyalEconomicSociety

To contribute to the newsletter In the next issue If you have an idea for a feature, details of an event, a proposal for an obituary, or would like to contribute a Letter to the Climate change Editor, please write to Jon Temple at [email protected] A profile of Lord Stern and cc your message to [email protected] 28 LOOKING BACK

From the Archive

Extracts from Diane Coyle’s conference report, from the July 2002 issue

Professor Diane Coyle “It’s different in infinite dimensional … To my mind, the developments in is the Bennett Professor spaces,” or so Peter Phillips said, part statistics are just about the most chal- of Public Policy at the way through his Denis Sargan lecture lenging area of all the [New Economy] University of Cambridge. at the 2002 Royal Economic Society research. For the precision needed to For her blog, see: conference at Warwick University. An collect statistics demands the utmost http://www.enlighten- arresting line, but the next few min- clarity of thought about the underly- menteconomics.com/ utes could have been, for all I knew, ing economic concepts. So far, I think blog/ taken from “A Hitch-hikers Guide to economists are failing the statisticians, the Galaxy”. I could tell it was a bril- demanding ‘better’ measurement with- liant lecture, and so the other eminent out offering the conceptual advances econometricians present confirmed, that would make it possible to meet but it was too much for a humble mor- that demand - or, indeed (with hon- tal to grasp. ourable exceptions) bothering to pay enough attention to what the statisti- cians are actually doing. … the Women’s Committee Reception stood out as the only opportunity for decent networking. (I did meet some … [The conference] did also leave me extremely cheerful people wearing wishing that there had been a bit more cowboy hats in the bar on the second evidence of academic interest in what evening, but they turned out to be is preoccupying both other professional from a different conference altogether economists and wider audiences, and and couldn’t discuss unit roots not so much obsession with the RAE or growth accounting, even after a [the forerunner of the REF]. few pints.)

… It is especially in a subject like … I went on to hear David Hendry globalisation, overly-fashionable and (Nuffield College, Oxford) who noted crowded with pundits, that economists […] that the models needed for eco- need to make themselves heard. For nomic analysis and those needed to the abdication of serious research- make good forecasts of the economy are ers leaves the way open for all kinds different. He cited a recent Washington of nonsense to become conventional Post headline – ‘Never a Crystal Ball wisdom, and contributes to the ebb- When You Need One’ – to make the ing of public confidence in economics. point that it’s the things we don’t know To invert David Hendry’s comment, we don’t know that are the problem. although we don’t know what we don’t know, we do know what we know, and ought to be getting the message out.

I could tell it was a brilliant lecture, and so the other eminent econometricians present confirmed, but it was too much for a humble mortal to grasp 2 Dean Trench St, Westminster, The Royal Economic Society is one of the oldest and most London, SW1P 3HE prestigious economic associations in the world. We are a T: +44 (0) 203 137 6301 learned society, founded in 1890 to promote the study of E: [email protected] W: www.res.org.uk economic science. Our 4,000 members include student, academic and professional economists from around the @RoyalEconSoc world. Membership is open to anyone with an interest in www.linkedin.com/company/ royal-economic-society economic matters. www.youtube.com/user/ RoyalEconomicSociety Member benefits and information Become a RES member today and receive the following The Royal Economic Society is a member benefits: Registered Charity no. 231508. © The Royal Economic Society l Access the RES Membership Directory, a searchable database of the Society’s members including career stage, profession and region Chief Executive: l Digital access to The Economic Journal and Leighton Chipperfield The Econometrics Journal [email protected] l A discount on submission fees for The Economic Journal, with the Head of Communications chance to win one of the Society’s prizes including the annual RES & Engagement : prize of £2500 for the best paper Julia Randall-Edwards l Save up to a 1/3 on registration for our Annual Conference [email protected] l Receive our quarterly newsletter which includes topical articles, comments and letters Digital Communications l Apply for the Society’s grant schemes and attend our Officer: series of events Adam Peggs l Tax Relief for UK members on RES membership fees [email protected] l Online access to the digital editions of the Collected Writings Editor: Jonathan Temple of John Maynard Keynes. Members also receive a special 30% [email protected] discount on the printed edition l Print+online members additionally receive a printed copy of The Design: Phil McAllister Economic Journal published 8 times a year [email protected] l Student members may attend the Symposium of Junior Printed in the UK by Stephens Researchers, the Job Market, and can apply for financial and George Print Group assistance to attend the Annual Conference. l Get involved in the organisation of the Society, nominate the

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