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Newsletternewsletter ROYAL ECONOMIC SOCIETY NEWSLETTERNEWSLETTER Issue no. 156 January 2012 Another New Year (They seem to come round more quickly as time goes on). Traditionally, the January issue of the Newsletter is the most crowded of the year and this one is no exception. Hence we need to start with some thanks to those contributors who have generously agreed to see publication of their work deferred to April. For similar reasons, we owe an apology to authors whose work in this issue has been trimmed and compressed — by just about every device known to editors — to get it to fit the space available. We hope that no material damage has occurred. Finally, while the spirit of regret is in the air, we need to apologise for three errors that appeared in the last issue. Firstly, we transferred Andy Mullineux from the Birmingham to the Bristol Business School; we delayed Adam Smith’s arrival in Panmure House by ten years — it should have been 1778, not 1788 — and we managed at least one misspelling of what should have been ‘Heriot-Watt’. Apologies to all. Recent issues of the Newsletter have featured contrasting views on the pros and cons of austerity packages. In this issue, Prof Robert Neild, whose career involved working through some difficult times in the 1960s and 1970s, argues the case for a calmer approach to deficits, based upon the UK’s long-run history. In the last Newsletter we wondered whether there was a case for a ‘plan B’ and if so what it might look like. Since then, little has changed. The prospects of economic growth coming to the aid of deficit reduction have not improved. The thought that ratios might be brought down to tar- get levels purely by slashing the numerator is a bleak one with which to start the year. On a brighter note, Alan Kirman reports that attempts to introduce some rationality into French rail timetables has produced outrage while the future of the French nuclear industry is set to become a major electoral issue. Also encouraging is the update from the ‘Pro bono economics’ project. David Collard argues that economists should be more critical of the mechanisms behind the setting of some top salaries. And, being the January issue, we have reports from the editors of the society’s two journals. In this issue — • Letter from France 3 • Economic Journal, Editor’s Annual Report 5 • The Econometrics Journal, Editor’s Annual Report 8 • Hyperbolic disasters 12 • Economists, protests and positional rents 14 • Obituaries 16 • Pro bono economics - an update 18 • The national debt in perspective 20 • RES news 24 • Conference diary 26 ROYAL ECONOMIC SOCIETY ROYAL ROYAL ECONOMIC SOCIETY Published quarterly in January, April, July and October NNEWSLETTEREWSLETTER Editor Next issue Prof Peter Howells, Centre for Global Finance, Newsletter No. 157 - April 2012 Bristol Business School, UWE Bristol, Articles, features, news items, letters, reports etc. should be Coldharbour Lane, sent to the Editor by: Bristol BS16 1QY Fax: (44) (0)1722 501907 15 March 2012 Email: [email protected] [email protected] Items concerning conferences, visiting scholars and appointments should be sent to the Information Secretary by: Administration Officer Mrs Amanda Wilman, 16 March 2012 Royal Economic Society, School of Economics and Finance, University of St. Andrews, St. Andrews, Fife, KY16 9AL, UK Contributions from readers Fax: +44 (0)1334 462444 The Newsletter is first and foremost a vehicle for the dis- Email: [email protected] semination of news and comment of interest to its readers. Contributions from readers are always warmly welcomed. We are particularly interested to receive letters for our cor- respondence page, reports of conferences and meetings, and news of major research projects as well as comment Newsletter - subscription rates on recent events. Readers might also consider the Newsletter a timely outlet The Newsletter is distributed to members of the Society free for comments upon issues raised in the Features section of of charge. Non-members may obtain copies at the following The Economic Journal. We can normally get them into subscription rates: print within three months of receipt. • United Kingdom £5.00 Visit our website at: • Europe (outside UK) £6.50 www.res.org.uk • Non-Europe (by airmail) £8.00 Designed by Sarum Editorial Services www.sarum-editorial.co.uk 2 Letter from France — The politics of nuclear energy In France, which generates most of its electricity from nuclear sources, the recent accident at Fukushima has provoked strong reactions. In his latest letter, Alan Kirman explains how the French electoral system is likely to turn the future of nuclear energy into a critical political issue. rance is a strange country. This has been a year of understand and remember, (the train from Besancon to Lyon economic upheaval, the EU has had many ‘last will leave at 7 and 37 minutes past the hour for example). It Fchance’ meetings, and Sarkozy has done his very also added a significant number of trains. best to convey to the world the idea that the leaders in the But the reaction was remarkable and immediately taken up EU are France and Germany. The rating agencies have by the press, radio and television backed up by blogs and threatened to downgrade France’s rating. The EU failed on petitions on the internet. There was an interview with a man December 9th to reach an unanimous agreement and who explained that he had built his life around one train and Britain stood to one side provoking the ire of all and his existence was being shattered by the SNCF’s arbitrary sundry. The ‘Entente Cordiale’ disappeared, as the resent- decision to remove this train. The press explained that all the ment in France at the UKs stance boiled over and the gov- small towns near Paris needed most trains when people left ernor of the Banque de France announced that if any coun- to go to Paris and similarly in the evening. The new try should be downgraded it should be the UK and not timetable did not achieve this and several mayors were tak- France. This was reinforced by similar remarks by the ing action! A new association was set up on the internet for French prime minister and the outcry in the British news- the victims of the change to protest and it proudly papers was predictable with headlines categorising Noyer announced that it had 600 members, which, given the mil- the governor of the Banque de France as a grade AAA lions who use the trains daily seemed underwhelming! idiot. In any event the putative agreement, does not seem, However, France is a country with a strong tradition of com- at the time of writing to have been enough to calm the cri- plaining and those who gained from the changes were sis of the euro. The treaty has to be ratified by the gov- unlikely to express their opinions. One transport economist ernments or parliaments of the countries in question and it was asked on the radio to confirm that this radical change is the improbability that this can be done rapidly that con- was unnecessary and harmful, and when he started to argue tributed to Fitch’s pessimism. Curiously enough, the U.K. that for the majority of people, it was beneficial, the inter- may be a necessary participant in this process given the viewer counter-attacked by asking why the changes could EU rules. not have been made progressively!! When he started to Some French economists are now starting to join the many explain about the interdependence of trains, connections and who express concern about the survival of the euro. so on, he was thanked for his time. Despite the rather optimistic assertions of Angus Deaton in his Letter from America, as ex-Governor Trichet said, he This should indicate the sort of order of priorities in France felt ‘abandoned by economic theory’ and all that he and and therefore it would be of little use to add to the millions other policymakers had to go on was ‘wisdom and experi- of words that have been written about the eurocrisis here ence’. This may be the result of bad communication and I am in an uncomfortable position to comment on the between good economists and the ECB but might also Franco-British spat. I might just add that Francois Fillon reflect the fact that our current macroeconomic models tried to pour oil on troubled waters with Cartesian logic. As have little to say about real crisis periods. With little con- he pointed out, his argument that the UK should be down- sensus on what are the appropriate policies to adopt by graded was conditional on some country suffering that fate. those who are supposed to understand what is going on, Since, in his view, no EU country was in that situation he market prices continue to reflect a pessimistic outlook. was not therefore, actually criticising the state of the UK economy! In his view the austerity measures already taken On top of this, France is heading towards presidential elec- by la France were more than enough to guarantee its future tions next year and there are many serious and gloomy things success. In any event, ‘passons’, and let me come to my to discuss. The whole short term future of the French econo- main theme, France’s nuclear dependence. my may be in jeopardy. However, is this what has been the predominant preoccupation of the French in recent days? Why should this be of current interest? Let me offer a brief Not at all.
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