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The Society's Newsletter Royal Economic Society Issue no. 169 Newsletter April 2015 Correspondence 125 not out 2015 marks the 125th anniversary of the founding of Letter from America p.3 the Economic Journal, an event that was celebrated by a number of special sessions at the Society’s Annual Conference in Manchester as this issue was in Comments and notes its final stages of preparation. The Conference Teaching Economics p.13 enjoyed a number of other high points, as we’ll report in the next issue, including the Society’s Gala Dinner A note from Diane Coyle at Old Trafford Cricket Ground. and Simon Wren-Lewis p.14 In this issue, we have managed to include the Secretary-General’s Annual Report, delivered at the Features Conference. This is John Beath’s seventh and final report before handing over to Denise Osborn. Our Secretary-General’s Annual Report p.5 other regular feature of the April is Angus Deaton’s The Rise of Elitism in the Study of Economics: Letter from America where this time he draws atten- has it happened and does it really matter? p.9 tion to some interesting contradictions in the opposi- tion to compulsory healthcare insurance in the USA. Revisiting the state of economics education p.13 Amongst other features, we have an interesting article Election briefings p.17 from James Johnston and Alan Reeves which asks The Bank of England’s Research Agenda p.19 whether the recent trend towards concentration of economics teaching in ‘older’ universities may be What do we really know about the effects of free denying an economics education to those social trade agreements? p.20 groups that are underrepresented in these universities. With the approach of the UK general election, it is not Obituaries surprising that some university departments and Frederic S Lee p.23 research centres have taken up the challenge of inter- preting the claims of the various political parties. Johannes Graaff p.24 What is more surprising is the language in which this ambition is frequently cast which is frequently one of RES News p.25 ‘protecting the public’ and ‘providing it with ammuni- tion’. Could it be that the economics profession doubts the integrity of the parties when it comes to their statements on economic policy? Surely not. We p.26 Conference diary take a brief look at some examples on p.17. Royal Economic Society Economic Royal THE ROYAL ECONOMIC SOCIETY • President: Charlie Bean (April 2013-2015) • President-elect: Professor John Moore • Secretary-General: Professor John Beath (University of St Andrews) • Second Secretary: Professor Robin Naylor (University of Warwick) • Honorary Treasurer: Mark Robson (Bank of England) • Managing Editor of the Econometrics Journal: Professor Richard Smith (University of Cambridge) • Joint Managing Editor of the Economic Journal: Professor Rachel Griffith (IFS) The Society’s The Royal Economic Society is one of the oldest and most prestigious econom- Newsletter ic associations in the world. It is a learned society, founded in 1890 with the aim ‘to promote the study of economic science.’ Initially called the British Economic Association, it became the Royal Economic Society on receiv- The Newsletter is first and fore- ing its Royal Charter in 1902. The current officers of the Executive most a vehicle for the dissemina- Committee are listed above. tion of news and comment of inter- est to its readers. Contributions from The Society’s bee logo readers are always warmly welcomed. The Society’s logo, shown below, has been used from its earli- We are particularly interested to receive est days. The story behind the use of the bee refers to the letters, reports of conferences and meet- ‘Fable of the Bees’ by Bernard Mandeville, an 18th Century ings, and news of major research projects essayist which alludes to the benefits of decentralisation as well as comment on recent events. by looking at co-operation amongst bees and showing how the pursuit of self-interest can be beneficial to society. The Latin quote comes from Virgil and Readers might also consider the Newsletter a timely speaks of the drive of bees. outlet for comments upon issues raised in the Features section of the Economic Journal. We can get them into print within three months of receipt. Visit our website at: www.res.org.uk/view/resNewsletter.html The Newsletter is published quarterly in January, April, July and October Newsletter - subscription rates The Newsletter is distributed to members of the Society free of For membership benefits, charge. Non-members may obtain copies at the following subscription subscription fees and how rates: to join the Society, see back cover or go to: • UK £5.00 • Europe (outside UK) £6.50 • Non-Europe (by airmail) £8.00 w.ww.res.org.uk Next issue No. 170 July 2015 Deadline for submissions 16 June 2015 Editor Administration Officer Prof Peter Howells, Mrs Amanda Wilman, Centre for Global Finance, Royal Economic Society, Bristol Business School, School of Economics and Finance, UWE Bristol, University of St. Andrews, Coldharbour Lane, Bristol BS16 1QY St. Andrews, Fife, KY16 9AL, UK Email: [email protected] Fax: +44 (0)1334 462444 Email: [email protected] Designed by Sarum Editorial Services: www.sarum-editorial.co.uk www.res.org.uk/view/resNewsletter.html 2 Correspondence Letter from America — Adverse selection emerges from the weeds In his latest Letter from America, Angus shows how the opposition to healthcare insurance draws heavily on the concept of moral hazard while being curiously blind to adverse selection. ownton Abbey, the interminable British soap pital is reputedly very successful. Downton Abbey shows opera, is broadcast in the United States on pub- how falling land rents contributed to the fall of the Dlic (non-commercial) television, and has provid- British aristocracy, but is helping raise prices for US ed it with its all time greatest hit. For viewers in the New healthcare and creating great wealth among successful York area, the showing is preceded by a sixty second hospital entrepreneurs. commercial on behalf of New York (previously Columbia) Presbyterian hospital. The long-term political Market fundamentalists, who are well represented swing to the right and its hostility to public broadcasting among the Republicans who currently control both hous- has forced public television to abandon its longstanding es of Congress as well as a majority on the Supreme policy of minimalist ‘brought to you by’ acknowledge- Court, attribute the Downton Abbey/NY Presbyterian ments. One advertisement features the boxer Daniel problem to the fact that the market for healthcare is Jacobs, a rising star in 2011 when he was brought down undermined by moral hazard, by the overuse, overprovi- by a ‘massive tumor that had wrapped itself around my sion, and lack of price discipline that comes with insur- spine’. But his doctor at New York Presbyterian ‘aced it; ance, or at least with too much insurance. They believe they resurrected me, and resurrected my career’ so that that, if consumers bore all or at least a larger direct share ‘on August 9th, 2014, I became the WBA middleweight of their healthcare costs-a favorite phrase is ‘if they had champion of the world’. The more skin in the game’ — mar- audience for public television ket forces would bring down the in New York is well-heeled (the For economists, adverse selection has always cost of MRI machines, proton- next ad is for Viking River been“ central to discussions of health insurance. Yet, it beam scanners, and hip replace- Cruises), but likely contains has been hard to explain to the public. Politicians of the ments, just as they have brought few professional boxers, few right, who so clearly understand moral hazard, seem down the cost of flat screen tel- who have a cancer wrapped (sometimes willfully) blind to adverse selection; people evisions. Everyone would then around their spine, and very are fallible, but markets are not. be able to afford cheap, high- few who are free to choose their quality healthcare, just as every- healthcare in the same way as ” one owns a smartphone, and they choose between Budapest and Bangkok for their insurance would cover only catastrophically expensive Viking River cruise. The same can be said for the audi- events. Such ideas are beguiling, and the scandal of high ence for the ad on the cover of the program for the cost healthcare is clearly exacerbated by private insur- Metropolitan Opera’s current run of Don Giovanni, fea- ance, as well as by the implacable opposition of turing a young woman ‘told by doctor’ that amputation providers, device manufacturers and the pharmaceutical of her legs was best, but who, thanks to the same hospi- industry (as well as the market fundamentalists) to the tal, now needs braces only for her teeth. institution of the kind of evaluation that is done by the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence in the Insurance encourages moral hazard... UK. Yet the hospital ads are indeed aimed at consumers, who are being implicitly incited to pressure insurance compa- ...but what about adverse selection? nies and employers to provide plans that cover treatment For economists, adverse selection has always been cen- at NY Presbyterian. Each American hospital negotiates tral to discussions of health insurance. Yet, it has been (secret) prices for each service with each insurer, setting hard to explain to the public. Politicians of the right, who discounts from their infamously extortionate ‘charge- so clearly understand moral hazard, seem (sometimes master’ prices, which people who do not have insurance willfully) blind to adverse selection; people are fallible, — or adequate insurance — must routinely pay (or try to but markets are not. On the left, during the primaries for pay).
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