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Pre-Election Analysis Report-V2.Indd India Votes 2019 General Elections: Pre-election Analysis Volume I, March 2019 The 2019 General Elections are due to be held in India across April and May 2019 to constitute the 17th Lok Sabha. The Election Commission has announced a seven-phase poll schedule from April 11 to May 19, culminating in the results on May 23. The tenure of the current BJP-led NDA Government under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to end on May 26, 2019. Pre-election analysis: general elections 2019 The Lok Sabha (the Lower House of Parliament) has a total of 543 Members of Parliament (MPs), with each MP representing a single geographic constituency within a State or Union Territory. In addition, the President of India can nominate two Anglo-Indian representatives in case the community is inadequately represented. A total of 272 seats are required for a majority government. The Lok Sabha can have a maximum of 552 members as outlined in the Constitution of India. However, there is a freeze on the number of seats until 2026. Phase Number of Seats Statewise Poll Details States Phase I – April 11 20 91 Andhra (25), Arunachal (2), Assam (5), Bihar (4), Chhattisgarh (1), J&K (2), Maharashtra (7), Manipur (1), Meghalaya (2), Mizoram (1), Nagaland (1), Odisha (4), Sikkim (1), Telangana (17), Tripura (1), UP (8), Uttarakhand (5), West Bengal (2), Andaman (1), Lakshadweep (1) Phase II – April 18 13 97 Assam (5), Bihar (5), Chhattisgarh (3), J&K (2), Karnataka (14), Maharashtra (10), Manipur (1), Odisha (5), Tamil Nadu (39), Tripura (1), UP (8), West Bengal (3), Puducherry (1) Phase III – April 23 14 115 Assam (4), Bihar (5), Chhattisgarh (7), Gujarat (26), Goa (2), J&K (1), Karnataka (14), Kerala (20), Maharashtra (14), Odisha (6), UP (10), West Bengal (5), Dadra and Nagar Haveli (1), Daman and Diu (1) Phase IV – April 29 9 71 Bihar (5), J&K (1), Jharkhand (3), MP (6), Maharashtra (17), Odisha (6), Rajasthan (13), UP (13), West Bengal (8); Total: 71 Phase V – May 6 7 51 Bihar (5), J&K (2), Jharkhand (4), MP (7), Rajasthan (12), UP (14), West Bengal (7) Phase VI – May 12 7 59 Bihar (8), Haryana (10), Jharkhand (4), MP (8), UP (14), West Bengal (8), Delhi-NCR (7) Phase VII – May 19 8 59 Bihar (8), Jharkhand (3), MP (8), Punjab (13), West Bengal (9), Chandigarh (1), UP (13), Himachal (4) 1 2014 general elections – a snapshot The 2014 General Elections were conducted across nine phases between April 7 and May 12, the longest election in the country’s history. The BJP won 282 seats, with the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) securing a total of 336 seats. The BJP became the first party in 30 years to have secured a single majority in the lower house of Parliament with other political parties failing to qualify as principal opposition, as none of them had the minimum 54 seats, 1/10th of the total house strength to secure that role. The BJP had a vote share of 51 per cent, with the Indian National Congress (INC) shrinking to only 19.3 per cent. The 2014 elections saw a voters’ turnout of 66.2 per cent, the highest since the previous high of 64 per cent in 1984. A “None of the Above” option was introduced for the first time on the ballot papers and electronic voting machines in the general elections. The option was introduced after activist groups claimed that voters were too often forced to choose between several candidates having criminal backgrounds. Though last general elections, country’s 59,97,054 voters punched the NOTA button on the electronic voting machines, which equals to minimal 1.1 per cent of the total votes polled during these elections across 543 seats. Focus areas for major political parties in 2019 Party Key Focus Areas Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) Following BJP’s electoral loss in three key states (Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh) to the opposition INC, the Budget 2019 marked the last major opportunity for the BJP to consolidate support from its voter base. The government announced measures to boost support from rural voters, the middle class, small and medium enterprises and the poorer sections of upper castes hitherto left out of reservations. To address the Agrarian Crisis, the government announced the ‘PM Kisan Samman Nidhi Yojana’ as well as increased budget allocation for agriculture by 144 per cent. Job creation is one of the key focus areas for the BJP. Going by the pre-poll promise of one crore jobs per year by PM Modi, around 8.4 lakh jobs should have been created every month. The updated EPFO payroll data released in January shows a monthly average of 4.90 lakh only. This will be a key expectation from the BJP if it again forms the government. Nationalism, with Hindu nationalism as a sub-theme, will be a major theme on the agenda of the BJP as the party supports the building of the Ram temple on the disputed land in Ayodhya. The happenings at Pulwama and the retaliation at Balakot has emerged as a big part of the Modi narrative for the elections. Health will be on the priority list, evidenced by the launch of Ayushman Bharat, termed as the ‘world’s largest government-funded healthcare program’. The upliftment of poor and marginalised would continue to be the priority. This includes rural electrification, LPG connections, housing for all and infrastructure development, among others. The Citizenship Amendment Bill, which plans to change the definition of illegal migrants in India, is also on BJP’s list of deliverables after it forms the next government. 2 Party Key Focus Areas Indian National Congress Congress has launched a website seeking inputs into its election manifesto. This move is aimed (INC) an outreach towards potential voters, making common people stakeholders in the party’s 2019 Lok Sabha campaign. The party has drawn up its 2019 strategies, taking guidance from the key issues that led to electoral gains in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. The party is likely to forcefully leverage Rahul Gandhi’s announcement to provide a minimum guaranteed income, with an eye on addressing both rural distress and unemployment. This is the first time that any party in India has considered the idea of social welfare and security. The party will also focus on the effects of what it says was an ill-conceived and badly executed demonetisation exercise that left thousands without money and income. Agrarian stress is likely to be a key focus area, evidenced in its recent promise for a nationwide farm loan waiver, like what it announced immediately after taking power last year in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. The party recently announced that it would launch a pan-India agitation to expose the Union Government. Reinforce focus on the youth by aggressively raising the issue of unemployment and target the government’s implementation of GST that directly impacted the small and medium enterprises/ traders. The party is likely to focus on improving human capital such as education, health and social security. The Congress has also put the Citizenship Amendment Bill on its agenda, as it has already announced its intention to withdraw it completely, if it comes to power. Other regional parties Party Key Focus Areas Samajwadi Party (SP) – In a major realignment for the 2019 general elections, Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) Samaj Party (BSP) have formed an alliance and will contest an equal number of seats in Uttar Pradesh. Both parties are also expected to continue their alliance for the assembly elections, slated for early 2022. SP-BSP are likely to focus on the issue of unemployment amongst youth in the state, as the rate of unemployment has increased ever since BJP came to power. Agrarian distress and welfare of farmers is a key priority. Funds to be initiated for farmers to facilitate them with cash reserves at the time of distress. Focus on building a strong metro train network in the state and speeding up expansion of the network. The alliance is expected to focus on infrastructure development including highway construction, river front development in prominent cities and electrification of villages. Welfare for all communities would also be part of the alliance’s election agenda as BSP claims this to be its USP. 3 Party Key Focus Areas All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) TMC has focused on social and economic empowerment of minorities. The party would work to empower and mainstream them so that they could live with pride and self-confidence. Empowerment of women and girl child is also a key priority area. Provision of health services to each and every village and development of health infrastructure at the district and state level. Employment generation and industrial growth in the state would be a priority as they are important pillars of overall development. Party Key Focus Areas All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK wants to strengthen the education system of the state by providing (AIADMK) financial assistance to help the poor and needy. The party is expected to focus on promoting advanced healthcare, not just in urban areas but rural areas as well, including maternity assistance. Promotion of social welfare and social security schemes to benefit the people. It includes schemes such as Indira Awas Yojana to provide better housing infrastructure as well as marriage assistance schemes for girls from poor families Financial assistance to farmers and fisher folks is also likely to be a focus. Party Key Focus Areas Telangana Rashtriya Samiti Telangana Rashtriya Samiti has a stronghold over Telangana and swept the state by winning 88 (TRS) out of the 119 seats in December 2018.
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