Asteroid Impacts
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“Then the fifth angel sounded: And I saw a star fallen from heaven to the Earth. To him was given the key to the bottomless pit.” Revelations 9:1 “And he opened the bottomless pit, and smoke arose out of the pit like the smoke of a great furnace. So the sun and the air were darkened because of the smoke of the pit.” Revelations 9:2 Asteroid Impacts A descriptive overview of past events, current ideas, and future consequences. Introduction Historically An interesting concept that was not seriously explored or studied. Present Hot topic of debate and concern due to recent studies. Future New Idea? We knew impacts were common to our nearest neighbor. Assumed that lack of atmosphere led to very little protection. Thus impacts were more frequent. New Information Space probes to other planets. Voyager Missions Saw impact craters on other bodies. Satellites around Earth. Noticed possible sites here. Mimas One of the moons around Saturn. Impact crater indicates that impact was just below the level needed to rip moon apart. Basis for the Death Star. Moons Only? Mercury Shows signs of significant impacting in past. But once again, Mercury lacks an atmosphere. Natural Protection Initially thought atmosphere good enough protection. Only few sites recognized around globe as impact sites. Meteor Crater in Arizona New Technology, New Sites Started to locate other sites due to new and improved technology. Shuttle view of spacestation over Manicouagan, Canada. Started looking for sites instead of just chance findings. What are we seeing? Did not realize a lot of sites on Earth were impact craters. Views from space improved our information. Erosion and human activity destroying sites. Other Sites Middlesboro, KY. City built inside ancient crater. 6 km wide Over 300 million years old. Serpent Mound, OH Found just north of Ky. border. Mound built on just part of impact ring. Built about 800 AD by Native Americans. Over 320 million years old. El’gygytgyn, Russia Crater has filled with water over time. About 3.5 million years old. 18 km in diameter. Roter-Kamm, Namibia Found on African plains in Namibia. About 3.7 million years old . 2.5 km in diameter. Manicouagan, Canada Circular lake with town in middle. 100 km in diameter. About 214 million years old. Wabar, Saudi Arabia Found in desert. See people in background for scale. About .116 km in diameter. Approximately 140 years old. Wolfe Creek, Australia Found in Australian Outback. About 0.875 km in diameter. A little over 300,000 years old. Tunguska, Siberia June 30, 1908 at 7:40 in the morning. Massive explosion in an uninhabited area of Siberian Province of Russia. Tunguska, Siberia Asteroid or comet exploded in the atmosphere at an altitude of about 6 miles. Knocked down about 80 million trees. Shock wave knocked people off their feet and broke windows hundreds of miles away. Tunguska, Siberia Blast destruction area covered 830 square miles. Leonid Kulik was the first scientist to reach the area in 1927. Found no crater! Tunguska, Siberia Later investigators found microscopic glass spheres. Chemical analysis revealed high levels of nickel and iridium. These chemicals are very common in meteorites, but not on Earth. Chicxulub, Mexico Found off coast of Yucatan Peninsula. About 65 million years old. 170 km across. Dinosaur Killer? Sonar image of sea floor. Barringer Crater, AZ Meteor Crater National Park Original finder wanted to mine iron from meteorite. About 3,000 years old. 1.186 km in diameter. Strings of Impact Craters So far only looked at single impact sites. Due to recent evidence, believe that impacts occur in pairs or strings of multiple impacts. Evidence from other sites and one on Earth. Moon String Found on side of Moon away from Earth by Apollo mission. First clue came from Shoemaker-Levy 9 Impact. Shoemaker-Levy 9 Saw asteroid falling toward Jupiter. Asteroid broke apart. Struck Jupiter in a sequence. Spread across surface due to planet rotation. SL-9 Single Impact Callisto Moon of Jupiter Found by space probe. Multiple string of craters. Clearwater, Canada Impact pair in Northern Canada. Filled with water that melted as glaciers receded during last ice age. Most asteroids believed to have companion. Moon Creation Often wondered why Earth has such large moon when compared to moons of other planets. Mars sized object struck Earth, material blown off became Moon. Hollywood Recent movies have increased public awareness. Armageddon Deep Impact Dinosaur Extinction Theory of Luis Alvarez and his son Walter. Dinosaur Killer Asteroid had mass of trillion tons. Released energy equivalent to 5 billion atomic bombs. Crater 250 km across. Deep enough to penetrate thru crust. Dinosaur Killer Lifted 100 trillion tons of dust into air. Shut off sunlight for several months. Global acid rain. Large-scale fires. Forests and grasslands. How Destructive Can It Be? Speed is critical. Size of object is important. Physical structure of object plays role. Location of impact. Speed Each time speed doubles, damage quadruples. 50 mph = 50 joules 100 mph = ? joules Answer = 200 Most travel at about 6 miles a second! Size Does Matter The more massive an object, the more energy it has in it. Example: Tractor trailer moving at 50 mph will do a lot more damage than a bicycle moving at same speed. Size < 10 meters Don’t worry unless directly under it. 10 meters Rule of Thumb Crater about 20 times bigger than rock 10m x 20 = 200m crater Average speed. Size 100 meters 2 km crater Equals best craters from nuclear testing. Size 1000 meters 20 km crater Secondary effects become global Water Strike 1000 meter asteroid generates about 50 m tall wave. Rule of Thumb Wave increases 40x when moves to shallows. Becomes 2000 m (2km) in shallows. Cosmic Shooting Gallery What are the odds of impacts? What can we do to save ourselves? Frequency Pea Size – 10/hour Walnut Size – 1/hour Grapefruit – 1/10 hrs Basketball – 1/month 50m – 1/century 1km – 1/ 100,000 yrs 2km – 1/500,000 yrs Frequency Dinosaur type killer asteroids – 1/50 to 100 million years. Last occurrence was 65 million years ago. We are due! Next Century Planetary scientists estimate a 1/1,000 chance of major impact in this century. Odds decrease by factor of 10 each century. Potential Threats? About 2,000 objects of 1 km diameter cross Earth orbit. 10,000 objects at 500 meters 30,000 objects at 100 meters 150 million at 10 meters What is Being Done? In order to do anything, must locate asteroids and comets. Spacewatch University of Arizona NEAT Near-Earth Asteroid Tracking Spacewatch Project Steward Observatory on Kitt Peak. Robotic telescope photos sky. Computer analyzes images for motion. Alerts astronomers. 2,000 a month NEAT Sponsored by NASA and U.S. Air Force. Telescope in Hawaii. Also uses computers. Has detected over 10,000 asteroids. The End? Location With current technology, it is probable that we could detect any threatening asteroid years in advance. What can we do? Small Nudge The farther away the asteroid is, the less energy is needed to shift its path. Changing the speed by 1 mph would be enough. Path of an oncoming asteroid. Earth Requires only a change of 1 degree in course! 1 Billion Miles Away Earth Requires only a change of 10 degree in course! 500 Million Miles Away Earth Requires only a change of 45 degree in course! 100 Million Miles Away Earth Plan A Crash a rocket into the asteroid. Deflect its course just a tiny amount. Probably only good for small ones. < 300 ft. wide Don Quixote European Space Agency is studying a design of a space mission to accomplish Plan A. The first “real” asteroid deflection mission ever designed. More on this later! Plan B Explode an atomic weapon near asteroid in space. Heat one side causing material to explode away. Newton’s Third Law of Motion takes effect. Plan C Build a rocket engine on one side of asteroid. Rocket fires for several years. Slowly changes course over long period of time. Problems All three plans have problems. Do not have the technology yet. Requires finding asteroid years in advance. Asteroid breaks up! Future Is there hope? Advances in technology. Spacewatch and NEAT programs. We need to get a permanent space base to aid in protection. Deep Impact 2005 In the Summer of 2005, NASA accomplished the Deep Impact Mission. Sent a probe to comet Temple 1. Had a projectile that struck the comet while the mother satellite took photos. Stated Mission The stated mission for Deep Impact was to cause matter from the comet to be ejected into space. Then NASA scientists would analyze the results to see what makes up comets. Was there another mission? Other Mission? Maybe this was a test to see if they could hit a comet or asteroid. If they are testing it, should we be worried? Maybe , maybe not? Do you think the government would tell us if it were coming? Apophis Apophis is an Ancient Egyptian spirit of evil and destruction, determined to plunge the world into total darkness. Name of an asteroid that is of concern to astronomers. Apophis 390m wide, discovered in June of 2004. In December 2004, odds of impact were 1 in 37! On April 13, 2029, this asteroid will pass pretty close to Earth. A Friday! 22,600 miles from earth center. Have ruled out a collision in that year due to increased tracking. Apophis Yet, as the asteroid passes Earth’s gravity, its course may be changed, leading to a possible impact in 2036. The chances right now of Apophis hitting the right course for a collision after passing Earth in 2029 is 1 in 5,500.