RSS 2010: International conference Brighton, 13 –17 September 2010 www.rss.org.uk/rss 2010

Directory

Andrew Neri/iStockphoto.com RSS 2010: conference floor plan

Meeting Meeting SECOND Room 3 Room 5 FLOOR

Stairs and lifts to/from 1st Floor

Access to Syndicate Rooms 1 & 2 – through doors to street, turn right Stairs down and out to Russell Road

Syndicate Wing Foyer StaStairsirs an dandlif tliftss to /to/fromfrom Se 2condnFloord Floor

Syndicate Syndicate Room 2 Room 1 Auditorium 1 I n t e r

Exhibition & n e

Refreshments t Z o n e

Stairs to/from Stairs Ground Floor to/from Auditorium 2 Ground Floor FIRST (Hewison Hall) Speakers’ FLOOR Office

Stairs to/from Cloakroom 1st Floor (under stairs)

Registration and Information Desk GROUND FLOOR

Conference Centre Main Entrance

Kings Road

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ell Vern Farew Committee e Programme 010 Conferenc Chair, RSS 2

Members of the conference programme committee

Vern Farewell (chair), MRC Cambridge Deborah Aniyeloye University College London/RSS theme director for Department of Health/Young Statisticians Section meetings & conferences John Copas Frank Nolan University of Warwick/Chair RSS 2008 Conference ONS/Official Section Carolyn Craggs Matthew Sperrin Consultant/Quality Improvement Section Vanessa Didelez Angela Talbot /Research Section MRC Cambridge

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Contents

5 General information 6–7 Programme: Tuesday morning 8–9 Programme: Tuesday afternoon 10 –11 Programme: Wednesday morning 12 –13 Programme: Wednesday afternoon 14 –15 Programme: Thursday morning 16 –17 Programme: Thursday afternoon 18 –19 Programme: Friday 20 Exhibition plan and list of exhibitors 21 Posters: list of titles and presenters 22 Thanks and acknowledgements

Professional Development Centre Professional Development Centre COURSES

Inspirational leadership within a statistical organisation 14-15 October Duncan Miles and Denis Greer Aimed at existing and future statistical managers who are required to think and act strategically and who want to improve their leadership capacity. Sorry, this course is now fully booked Introduction to R/Regression Models in R 3-4 November Paul Baxter and Andrew Blance Aimed at users of statistics and statisticians in any field who wish to use R for statistical analysis. Presenting data 11 November Ed Swires-Hennessy Aimed at anyone involved in communicating statistics to non-statisticians or who reports on data – of any description – within organisations, to specific communities and to the general public where a message is being given. Multilevel modelling 25-26 November Harvey GoldsteinandGeorge Leckie Designed to give participants a solid grounding in the theory and application of multilevel models. The course will be based around theoretical sessions followed by hands-on sessions illustrating the theoretical concepts. The practical sessions will use the MLwiN software package. Meta-analysis 9-10 December StephenSenn This course will be invaluable for all those involved in meta-analysis of pharmaceuticals, whether as consumer or producer, or working for sponsor, regulator, contract research organisation or academia.

N All courses will be held at the RSS N For further details visit www.rss.org.uk/courses or contact Sarah Barker at the Society – [email protected] or phone 020 7614 3915 N Anyone who may be interested in having a training course run at their workplace should contact Sarah for details.

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General information Badges Photography Conference attendees are asked to wear their The Society will have a photographer taking badges and lanyards at all times while in the photographs in most sessions and at social Conference Centre and on arrival at the evening events. The Society may use photographs taken social events. Catering staff at the Brighton in publications and in future publicity. If you Centre may not be able to serve individuals who would prefer your photograph not to be used in cannot be identified as conference attendees. this way please contact the conference office.

Lost badges will be replaced at the discretion of Refreshments the conference organisers. A replacement fee Lunch as well as tea/coffee on arrival in the may be charged. mornings, at the mid-morning break and the mid-afternoon break is provided as part of your Cloakroom conference fee. All refreshments will be served A cloakroom is located on the ground floor next in the main hall (auditorium 1). On Friday a to the information desk. packed lunch will be available at the conclusion of the conference. Getting to social events As all the main social events are located along Session locations the seafront we will not be organising transport All sessions will be held in one of 5 rooms on the for delegates. Members of the organising team first and second floors of the Brighton Centre. will be available to help guide you to the correct buildings and entrances. Session timings G Plenary talks: 30-45 minutes plus time for Internet access questions and discussion The Brighton Centre provides wi-fi access with a G Invited talks: 20-30 minutes plus time for tariff based on usage which can be bought questions and discussions online. G Contributed talks: 20 minutes including time for questions and discussion There will also be a small number of computers with free internet access provided in the East Bar adjacent to the exhibition and catering area. Social events Tickets for pre-booked social events will be supplied in the envelope handed to you with Local information your conference badge. Please note that at the You will find information about and a map of the event on Monday evening only light canapés are local area in your delegate packs. being served. Mobile phones We ask that you switch off your mobile phones when you are in sessions.

Online tools The conference blog can be found at www.rssconference.blogspot.com and you can also follow proceedings on Twitter: RSSAnnualConf.

5 RSS 2010: Tuesday 14 September, morning programme

9am: Young Statisticians' breakfast Registration opens Sunrise Restaurant, Brighton Centre 8.45am Ground floor, Brighton Centre Organised by the Young Statisticians Section A chance to meet and network with other Young Statisticians at the conference. Featuring hot breakfast rolls and our famous "speed networking" sessions.

Auditorium 2 (Hewison Hall) 10am –11.20am

Welcome and opening plenary (Plenary 1)

Welcome to the conference by David Hand, RSS President

Presentation of an Honorary Fellowship to Janet Derbyshire

Plenary talk by (University of Oxford) Statistics, Genomics, and Human Diseases

Auditorium 1 (Main Hall)...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...c

11.40am –1pm Auditorium 2 (Hewison Hall) Syndicate 1 (East Wing)

Session 1A Session 1B Composite likelihood (INVITED) Data sources for climate science (INVITED) Chair: George Casella Discussant: Representing species groupings and spatiotemporal structure in the continuous plankton recorder data An overview of composite likelihood methods using sparse models Cristiano Varin*, Nancy Reid, David Firth Victoria Harris*, Sofia Olhede

Statistical inference for space-time extremes From archives to weather to climate change; Anthony Davison confidence and uncertainties in the surface temperature record. Philip Brohan

Quantifying uncertainty on chronologies for ice core palaeoclimate records Caitlin Buck

Auditorium 1 (Main Hall)…lunch…lunch…lunch…lunch…lunch…lunch…lunch…lunch…lunch…lunch…lunch…lunch…lunch

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Syndicate 2 (East Wing) Meeting Room 3 (2nd Floor) Meeting Room 5 (2nd Floor)

Session 1C Session 1D - Genomics Session 1E - Bayesian Statistics & Law (INVITED) (CONTRIBUTED) applications (CONTRIBUTED)

Colin Aitken and Roberto Puch-Solis Sparse principal components based on semi- Using Bayesian statistical methods to assist divisive clustering of variables in the diagnosis of child abuse followed by discussion of the work of Doyo Gragn Enki*, Nickolay T. Trendafilov *, Deborah Ashby, Frank the Society’s Statistics & the Law Dunstan, David Foreman, Neil McIntosh working group Filtering, FDR and power Renee Menezes*, Maarten van Iterson, Bayesian credibility models for general Judith Boer insurance and Its applications Dilip Nath*, Prasenjit Sinha Sinha Hierarchical functional principal components analysis for microarray time series Bayesian inference for partially observed Giovanni Montana, Maurice Berk* stochastic epidemics conditioned on their final size Statistical methods for the integration of several Simon White microarray data sets Leila Mohammadi*, Renee Menezes, Bayes linear learning about large industrial Monique den Boer systems David Randell*, Michael Goldstein, Philip Jonathan

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7 RSS 2010: Tuesday 14 September, afternoon programme

Auditorium 2 (Hewison Hall) Syndicate 1 (East Wing) 2pm –3.20pm Session 2A Session 2B Adaptive clinical trials (INVITED) Biodiversity (INVITED)

Blinded information-based monitoring of clinical trials Some statistical challenges in biodiversity research Tim Friede*, Frank Miller Robert Bagchi

A graphical approach to hypothesis testing in Spatial point pattern analysis to infer underlying adaptive Phase II/III clinical trials ecological process Martin Posch Calum Brown*, Janine Illian, David Burslem, Richard Law

Estimation of species numbers from discovery curve data Simon Wilson*, Brett Houlding, Mark Costello

Auditorium 1 (Main Hall)...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee..

3.40pm-5pm Auditorium 2 (Hewison Hall) Syndicate 1 (East Wing)

Session 3A Session 3B Models of epidemiology & immunology Biodiversity/Climate change (INVITED) (CONTRIBUTED)

Epidemics on random networks incorporating to global temperature observations household structure Magne Aldrin*, Marit Holden, Peter Guttorp Frank Ball Spatio-temporal modelling of daily air temperature in Familial correlation structures in the Catalonia adaptive immune response. Marc Saez*, Maria Barcelo, Aurelio Tobias, Diego Ken Duffy Varga, Ricardo Ocaña-Riola

Thresholds for epidemics on graphs Discovering traits that explain species response to Ayalvaldi Ganesh environmental gradients: a generalised linear mixed model approach Tahira Jamil*, Cajo ter Braak

5pm-7pm POSTER RECEPTION: Auditorium 1 (Main Hall) See page 21 for title list. Please refer to the insert in your p

7.30pm Social: On the Pier

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Syndicate 2 (East Wing) Meeting Room 3 (2nd Floor) Meeting Room 5 (2nd Floor)

Session 2C Session 2D - Composite likelihood Session 2E - Statistical methods Statistics & Law (CONTRIBUTED) (CONTRIBUTED) (CONTRIBUTED) Limited and full information estimation Mixed paired comparisons models Communication and interpretation of methods for factor analysis models for Manuela Cattelan*, Cristiano Varin statistical evidence in the administration longitudinal ordinal variables. of criminal justice Vassilis Vasdekis, Silvia Cagnone, Stereological methods to estimate volume Colin Aitken Irini Moustaki* and surface area: association between Broca's area, musical skills and cognitive Retention and disclosure of old criminal Composite likelihood and two-stage estimation function records - data protection or protecting the in family studies Christopher Cheyne*, Vanessa Sluming, public? Elisabeth Andersen Marta García-Fiñana Brian Francis*, Keith Soothill Adjusted composite likelihood simulations. Approximating multivariate distributions Non-likelihood ratio based evidence Simon Harden*, Richard Chandler with vines evaluation Alireza Daneshkhah*, Tim Bedford David Lucy On the comparison of some response The evaluation of evidence relating to surface designs in spherical region under traces of drugs on banknotes the G- and I-Optimality criteria Colin Aitken*, Amy Wilson, Polycarp Chigbu*, Eugene Ukaegbu Richard Sleeman

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Syndicate 2 (East Wing) Meeting Room 3 (2nd Floor) Meeting Room 5 (2nd Floor)

Session 3C Session 3D Session 3E - Biometry Adaptive clinical trials Performance indicators (CONTRIBUTED) (CONTRIBUTED) (CONTRIBUTED) Estimating the size of floating sex workers in A hybrid Classical-Bayesian framework for the Effectiveness of external quality assurance selected urban areas in Bangladesh using design and analysis of 2-stage clinical trials surveillance systems in the benchmarking of capture-recapture method with multivariate responses. Applications to German hospitals. M. Mazharul Islam fMRI trials Nicholas Lack Giorgos Minas*, Fabio Rigat, Thomas Model-based plot sampling of seedling Nichols, John Aston, Nigel Stallard Valid indicators of serious injury incidence: stands What can we learn from the New Zealand Aki Niemi Stochastic curtailed two-stage designs for experience? Phase II trials with one or two binary Colin Cryer Statistical methods for linking motivational endpoints priorities and welfare indicator approaches Cornelia Ursula Kunz*, Meinhard Kieser Labour market outcomes of university to animal welfare assessment graduates and the role of contextual factors: William Browne*, Gina Caplen, Jo Edgar, Evaluating the therapy-treatment interaction a multilevel analysis Christine Nicol in clinical trials of antihypertensive drugs by Matilde Bini*, Leonardo Grilli, the propensity score weighting method Carla Rampichini Capture-recapture inference under Yosuke Fujii, Masayuki Henmi*, structured heterogeneity Toshiharu Fujita Dankmar Böhning packs for the final order of display.

9 RSS 2010: Wednesday 15 September, morning programme

9.10-10.10am Auditorium 2 (Hewison Hall)

Plenary 2 Robert Groves (US Census Bureau)

Auditorium 2 (Hewison Hall) Syndicate 1 (East Wing) 10.20am –11.40am Session 4A Session 4B Sequential Monte Carlo (INVITED) Increasing the value of professional membership (INVITED) Local sequential Monte Carlo methods In a bid to understand the value of professional Adam Johansen*, Arnaud Doucet membership, the Professional Affairs Committee has recently engaged with employers of statisticians in Efficient Bayesian Inference for switching state-space the pharmaceutical and government sectors. This models using discrete particle Markov Chain Monte session will describe some of the findings from these Carlo methods sessions and their likely influence on the direction of Nick Whiteley*, Christophe Andrieu, Arnaud Doucet the RSS’s professional awards. In particular the role of Continuing Professional Development and the Building bridges: an overview of data augmentation revalidation of awards will be discussed. The aim of methods for estimation of diffusion processes. the session is to encourage a lively debate with the 11.50am-12pm Omiros Papaspiliopoulos audience and to demonstrate the RSS’s proposed Auditorium 2 online CPD recording facility. Young Andy Garrett, Tim Knight, Gerald Goodall Statisticians (Professional Affairs Committee), Section AGM Premier IT demonstration

Auditorium 1 (Main Hall)...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee... Auditorium 2 (Hewison Hall) Syndicate 1 (East Wing)

12pm –1pm Session 5A Session 5B Best of RSC 2010(INVITED) Statistical modelling (CONTRIBUTED)

Spatio-temporal modelling of meningitis incidence in The proportional odds model with an anchor category sub-Saharan Africa David Oakes Michelle Stanton*, , Lydiane Agier, Barry Rowlingson Marginal models for dependent, clustered, and longitudinal categorical data Detection of changes in variance of oceanographic Wicher Bergsma*, Marcel Croon, Jacques Hagenaars time-series using changepoint analysis. Rebecca Killick*, Idris Eckley, Kevin Ewans, Attitudes to gender roles: modelling repeated ordered Philip Jonathan categorical data subject to dropout Damon Berridge*, Roger Penn, David Stott An introduction to the statistical modelling of fingerprints Stephanie Llewelyn

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Syndicate 2 (East Wing) Meeting Room 3 (2nd Floor)

Session 4C Session 4D - Econometrics Medical (CONTRIBUTED) (CONTRIBUTED)

Estimation of life expectancy for lung transplantation Asymmetric time aggregation and its potential benefits Qing Wang*, Linda Sharples, Nikolaos Demiris for forecasting annual data Philip Hans Franses, Robert M. Kunst* Potential bias in the accuracy of a diagnostic or screening test when errors in the test and its reference The random discontinuity design in epidemiology standard are correlated Sara Geneletti*, Gianluca Baio Stephen Walter Can the weather help to explain volatility in retail Exploring uncertainty in dynamic models: application sales? to continuous glucose monitoring in insulin therapy Robert Gilhooly David Lunn*, Chen Wei, Roman Hovorka Some statistical aspects of volatility in time series How large should a pilot study for a randomised Anthony Lawrance controlled trial be? Julius Sim*, Martyn Lewis coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...co ffee...coffee...coffee...coffee... Syndicate 2 (East Wing) Meeting Room 3 (2nd Floor)

Session 5C Session 5D - Survey methodology Building trust in statistics (CONTRIBUTED) (CONTRIBUTED)

Building trust: accreditation and the Providing good quality data on sub-groups: the Professionalisation of statistics Citizenship Survey Muslim boost Ron Wasserstein Philippa Robinson*, Suzanne Cooper

Public confidence in Official Statistics Survey 2009 Use of administrative data for short term business Alun Humphrey*, Rossy Bailey, Josie Rofique surveys in the UK Craig Orchard*, Gareth James Statistical critique of 203 Home Office press releases from February to September in 2008 and 2009

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11 RSS 2010: Wednesday 15 September, afternoon programme

2pm-3.15pm Auditorium 2 (Hewison Hall)

Plenary 3 Statistical Engineering An introduction to the Society's GetStats campaign Tim Davis followed by:

Auditorium 1 (Main Hall)...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee... Auditorium 1 (Main Hall) Syndicate 1 (East Wing)

3.30pm-4.50pm Session 6A Session 6B Retrospective Read Paper (INVITED) 2011 UK Census (INVITED)

The session will commence with the presentation of The 2011 Census internet questionnaire the in Bronze to Omiros Papaspiliopoulos Sue Dalton*, Alexa Courtney

Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso Statistical disclosure control and the 2011 Census Robert Tibshirani Carole Abrahams and Caroline Tudor

2011 Census outputs design and user requirements Joe Traynor

5pm –6pm Auditorium 2 (Hewison Hall) Syndicate 1 (East Wing)

Session 7A Session 7B Building trust in statistics (INVITED) General (CONTRIBUTED)

The survey of Public Confidence in Official Statistics Web analytics - a new statistical domain? carried out for the UK Statistics Authority showed that Paul Askew ‘television and newspapers remain the most common sources of information used to form opinions’. When Modelling unknown exposure data for road traffic asked if newspapers presented figures honestly, the accident analysis majority (61 per cent) disagreed. The importance of the Louise Walter media to building trust in statistics is clear. This session will hear about the development of the Making Sense of A statistician plays darts Statistics booklet for journalists produced by Sense about Ryan Tibshirani*, Andrew Price, Jonathan Taylor Science in collaboration with Straight Statistics and the RSS. The session will also hear about the innovative work of the Guardian’s Datablog which takes publicly available data and presents and interprets it in ways that are readily accessible to the public. The work of the Society in promoting good statistical reporting will also be reported, including its workshops for journalists and its awards for statistical excellence in journalism Leonor Sierra, Sense about Science Simon Rogers, Guardian Datablog Andrew Garratt, Royal Statistical Society

7pm till late Young Statisticians Evening Social Vodka Attic Revolution Bar, 77 West St, Brighton BN1 2RA

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coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...co ffee...coffee...coffee...coffee... Syndicate 2 (East Wing) Meeting Room 3 (2nd Floor)

Session 6C Session 6D Primary Health Care (INVITED) Learning from statistical education (INVITED) Evaluation of diagnostic and prognostic (bio)markers and prediction models: from development to Cornish pasties and learning from teaching statistics implementation. Neville Davies*, John Marriott Karel Moons

Title TBC Richard Stevens

Title TBC Jonathan Cook

Syndicate 2 (East Wing) Meeting Room 3 (2nd Floor)

Session 7C Session 7D - Systematic reviews Risk (CONTRIBUTED) (CONTRIBUTED)

Penalised likelihood estimators for truncated data An Australian perspective on type 2 diabetes mellitus, Eric Cope cardiovascular disease risk factors and reduction strategies based upon evidence based medicine and Generalised extreme value regression: an application to expert opinion. defaults in credit risk analysis Deborah Hilton Raffaella Calabrese*, Silvia Angela Osmetti Predicting the extent of heterogeneity in meta- analysis, using empirical data from Cochrane reviews Rebecca Turner*, Jonathan Davey, Mike Clarke, Julian Higgins

Bayesian meta-analysis for longitudinal models Eleni Bakra*, Fiona Matthews

13 RSS 2010: Thursday 16 September, morning programme

9.10-10.10am Auditorium 2 (Hewison Hall) Syndicate 1 (East Wing) Session 8A Session 8B Best of YSM 2010 (INVITED) Machine learning (CONTRIBUTED)

Syndromic surveillance of ‘influenza-like' illness in Modelling the behaviour of opponents in the Scotland during the Influenza A H1N1v pandemic. Lemonade Stand Game Kimberley Kavanagh*, Chris Robertson, Adam M Sykulski*, Archie C Chapman, Enrique Jim McMenamin Munoz de Cote, Nicholas R Jennings

Denoising UK house prices Bayesian inference of mixture of hidden Markov models Andrew Smith for internet browsing behaviour Amin Jamalzadeh*, David A Wooff Graphical augmentations to the Funnel Plot in order to assess the potential impact of further evidence in Adaptive filtering for state-space identification and meta-analysis state estimation Dean Langan*, Alex Sutton, Julian Higgins, Niall Adams, Christoforos Anagnostopoulos, Dimitris Walter Gregory Tasoulis, Elena Ehrlich*

Auditorium 2 (Hewison Hall) 10.15am –11.20am Plenary 4 The role of likelihood in statistical science Nancy Reid Auditorium 1 (Main Hall)...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...c

11.40am –1pm Auditorium 2 (Hewison Hall) Syndicate 1 (East Wing)

Session 9A Session 9B Risk (INVITED) Statistical literacy (CONTRIBUTED)

Optimal asset management Explaining p to an MP: presenting statistics to the lay Jonathan Ansell reader Andrew Epps*, Nick Ormiston-Smith, Ah Mun Kuan, Caroline Harper Soft systems and risk assessment Martin Newby Communicating the value of statistical thinking in training researchers from other disciplines Title TBC Gillian Lancaster Alan Kimber Current challenges and directions in teaching statistics to promote statistical literacy Svetlana Tishkovskaya*, Gillian Lancaster

Statistical literacy for citizenship: the role of descriptive statistics Thomas King*, Clare Woodford

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Syndicate 2 (East Wing) Meeting Room 3 (2nd Floor) Meeting Room 5 Session 8C Session 8D (2nd Floor) Risk (CONTRIBUTED) Health/medical (CONTRIBUTED) 9.30 –11.30am

Does smoking present a greater mortality risk The sad history of formula funding for the NHS (and to women than to men? Findings from 40 the role of the Royal Statistical Society). Reaching wider years of the British Cotton Workers' Cohort. Jane Galbraith*, Mervyn Stone Margaret Hurley*, Damien McElvenny audiences A parametric quantile regression approach to the workshop Multifactorial genetic disorders and adverse conditional generalised gamma distribution. Booking required, selection: epidemiology meets economics Angela Noufaily*, Chris Jones Pradip Tapadar*, Angus Macdonald contact the Comparing treatment policies in early epilepsy GetStats stand through the joint modelling of pre-randomisation event rates and multiple post-randomisation survival times with cure rates. Jennifer Rogers*, Jane Hutton

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Syndicate 2 (East Wing) Meeting Room 3 (2nd Floor) Meeting Room 5 (2nd Floor)

Session 9C Session 9D - Signal processing Session 3E Evidence-based Biostatistics (CONTRIBUTED) (CONTRIBUTED) policy (CONTRIBUTED)

Analysis of overdispersed Poisson data: how Detecting safety signals in longitudinal The application of interrupted time series to important is the choice of overdispersion model? toxicity data evaluate the impact of government-set time Philip Dixon Friederike Barthel*, Alaknanda Preston, targets on patient care and outcomes in Laura Budde emergency care A marginalized conditional linear model for Jenny Freeman*, Suzanne Mason, longitudinal binary data with continuous-time Statistical analysis of coherence for certain Susan Croft, Chris Yap, Susan Cross informative dropout non-stationary bivariate processes via Li Su wavelets Structural uncertainty in health economic Edward Cohen*, Andrew Walden decision models Using multiple imputation: a step-by-step Christopher Jackson*, Linda Sharples, practical example using a malaria indicator Estimation of graphical interaction models Simon Thompson survey for multivariate time series Andrea Rehman*, Chris Schwabe, Immo Chloe C. Chen*, Andrew T. Walden Modelling the growth of Abdominal Aortic Kleinschmidt Aneurysms (AAA) using mixed effects regression with autocorrelated residuals. Using discrete time survival models to model Paul Baxter breakdown with TB of cattle using the Randomised Badger Culling Trial dataset IMPACT2: A policy model for chronic disease William Browne*, Laura Green, Graham Nathan Green*, Matthew Sperrin, Medley, Camille Szmaragd Duncan Smith, Iain Buchan unch…lunch…lunch…lunch…lunch…lunch…lunch…lunch…lunch…lunch…lunch…lunch…lunch…lunch…lunch…lunch

15 RSS 2010: Thursday 16 September, afternoon programme

Auditorium 2 (Hewison Hall) Syndicate 1 (East Wing) 2pm-3.20pm Session 10A Session 10B Inspiring statistics (INVITED) Financial statistics (INVITED)

Statistics the UK needs Bank of England statistics before, during, and after the Jason Bradbury financial crisis. Mark Robson The expansion of the UK statistical system - a model Issues in credit scoring for engagement Jonathan Ansell Andy Sutherland

Common issues identified from UK Statistics Authority's assessments Richard Laux

Meeting Room 8 (3rd Floor): 2pm –4.30pm Employers' Roundtable (Invitation only)

Auditorium 1 (Main Hall)...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...

Auditorium 2 (Hewison Hall) Syndicate 1 (East Wing) 3.40pm –4.40pm Session 11A Session 11B Opinion polling in the 2010 Financial & economic statistics UK general election (CONTRIBUTED) (INVITED) The E_ect of estimation in high-dimensional portfolios Pre-election voting intention polls in the 2010 Axel Gandy*, Luitgard Veraart election campaign Anthony Wells Adaptive consumer credit classification Nicos Pavlidis*, Niall Adams, David Hand Getting it right on the night: the 2010 exit poll Jouni Kuha Employment retention in the recession: microeconomic effects of the Short-Time Work Programme in Germany Paul Whiteley Stefan Speckesser

4.50pm –6pm Auditorium 2 (Hewison Hall)

Plenary 5 Predicting spatio-temporal credit default rates Robert Stine

8pm (welcome Social: Conference dinner, Holiday Inn, Brighton Seafront drinks from 7pm)

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Syndicate 2 (East Wing) Meeting Room 3 (2nd Floor) Meeting Room 5 (2nd Floor)

Session 10C Session 10D Session 10E – Statistical Best of the RSS Journals (INVITED) Primary Health Care methods (CONTRIBUTED) (CONTRIBUTED) Children's educational progress: partitioning Inferences on extreme events from data at family, school and area effects Modelling obesity and underweight status multiple sampling frequencies George Leckie in Leeds schoolchildren Adam Butler*, Chris Glasbey Claire Griffiths, Paul Marchant*, Carlton Cooke, Paul Gately Exact Monte Carlo simulation for Fork-Join Estimating infectious disease parameters from networks data on social contacts and serological status Latent trajectory modelling of Hongsheng Dai Nele Goeyvaerts multimorbidity profiles over time Yuchun V Peng*, Kelvin P Jordan, Supervised sampling for clustering large Tilting methods for assessing the influence of Umesh T Kadam, Peter W Jones data sets Ioannis Kosmidis*, Dimitris Karlis components in a classifier Adjusting for different kinds of covariates Jing-Hao Xue*, Michael Titterington, Peter Hall in a complex multi-level regression analysis: a case study using General Practice Research Database data on patient consultations in primary care. David Reeves*, Evangelos Kontopantelis, Timothy Doran

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Syndicate 2 (East Wing) Meeting Room 3 (2nd Floor) Meeting Room 5 (2nd Floor)

Session 11C Session 11D Session 11E – Teaching statistics (CONTRIBUTED) User groups (CONTRIBUTED) Epidemiology/public health (CONTRIBUTED) Using screen capture to support students The Water Statistics User Group will give learning a short presentation to inform other Group based trajectory approaches to Thomas Jaki statisticians of who they are, what they analysing large longitudinal studies of do and outline some of the problems public health in Australia. The more or less archive: a resource for teaching they face. Peter Baker*, Gail Williams the more and less statistically literate Neil Spencer Compact cluster sampling using PDAs to estimate malaria prevalence on Bioko Personal response systems for teaching Island, Equatorial Guinea: a cross-sectional postgraduate statistics to small groups survey Andrew Titman*, Gillian Lancaster Andrea Rehman*, Immo Kleinschmidt, Chris Schwab e

17 RSS 2010: Friday 17 September, programme

9.30am – Auditorium 2 (Hewison Hall) Syndicate 1 (East Wing) 10.50am Session 12A Session 12B Important topics in genetics (INVITED) Performance indicators (INVITED)

Fine mapping of casual HLA variants using penalised Nationwide hospital outcomes monitoring using regression. statistical process control David Balding Alex Bottle

Genotype imputation using thousands of genomes Issues in measuring the quality of healthcare. Bryan Howie, Jonathan Marchini*, Matthew Veena Raleigh Stephens Health Performance Indicators: their risks and benefits Risk prediction algorithms for familial breast cancer: Stephen Evans translating genetic research into clinical applications. Antonis Antoniou Performance indicators: service indicators or system indicators? Jon Nicholl

Auditorium 1 (Main Hall)...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...

11.10am Auditorium 2 (Hewison Hall) Syndicate 1 (East Wing) –12.10pm Session 13A Session 13B History of statistics National Audit Office (INVITED/CONTRIBUTED) (CONTRIBUTED)

A past master of a modern art: 's 1953 Quantitative analysis of the academies programme paper ‘The Analysis of Economic Time-Series-Part I: Mark Bisset, Frazer Clark, Ian Cockburn, Ah Mun Prices’ Kuan*, Jonathan Mackay Ian Hunt Evaluation of Sure Start children's centres Interpreting changing inequalities in maternal Richard Douglas, Andrew Epps, Angela Hands, Ah mortality since the early twentieth century: artefact, Mun Kuan*, Victoria Lasore, Sarah Perryman, gradient, or precipice? Baljinder Virk, Paul Wright-Anderson Alison Macfarlane Helping over indebted consumers From Statistical Society of London to ‘Significance’ – a Ah Mun Kuan*, Charlie Gluckman brief overview of the history of the RSS Janet Foster

12.15 –1.35pm Auditorium 2 (Hewison Hall)

Plenary 6 – Significance Significance: magazine, website – Statistical shenanigans: from Bang goes the theory: science and world domination? A mild hope Sweet Peas to Nobel Prizes, how statistics on popular TV. for the future. much that we take for granted Yan Wong Julian Champkin ain't necessarily so? Danny Dorling

Close of conference. Packed lunch available for collection from Auditorium 1.

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Syndicate 2 (East Wing) Session 12C Census/population surveys (CONTRIBUTED)

Towards a fully adjusted census database for the 2011 census Christine Sexton*, Alan Taylor, James Brown

Beyond 2011: population statistics for the future Roeland Beerten*, Louise Morris, Paul Tutton

Standard error estimation for measures of population change over time from repeated surveys Yves Berger*, Rodolphe Priam, Pedro Silva

coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...coffee...

Syndicate 2 (East Wing) Session 13C Medical (CONTRIBUTED)

Survival modelling via generalised estimating equations Daniel Farewell

An evaluation of penalised survival methods for developing prognostic models with rare events Gareth Ambler*, Shaun Seaman, Rumana Omar

Survival extrapolation in the presence of cause specific hazards Tatiana Benaglia*, Christopher Jackson, Linda D Sharples

Buckets and spades available on the beach.

19 RSS 2010: exhibition plan and key

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Key to exhibitiors 7 Oxford University Press (Tuesday/Wednesday) 1 Royal Statistical Society 8 ESRC National Centre for Research Methods (Tuesday/Wednesday) 2 Wolfram (Wednesday/Thursday) 9 Postgraduate Statistics Centre Lancaster 3 NAG (Wednesday)/Taylor & Francis (Thursday) 10 Wiley-Blackwell 4 PSI 11 Office for National Statistics 5 Timberlake Consultants (Tuesday/Wednesday) 12 GetStats 6 Emerald Group Publishing

20 Posters

List of posters (Tuesday 5pm –7pm) An opportunity to view the poster presentations on display and discuss their work with the authors over a glass of wine. On the impact of inflation and exchange Australian literature and dataset review Left ventricular hypertrophy [LVH] rate on conditional stock market comparing rugby union [RU] to rugby diagnosis: a systematic review and the volatility: a re-assessment league [RL] spinal injury incidence rate effect of publication bias. Olaoluwa S Yaya*, Olanrewaju I Shittu or odds ratios and scrum law sequence Deborah Hilton changes Deborah Hilton The Family Resources Survey: main uses Flexible parametric versus non- and future developments Outlier detection in discrete parametric adjustment methods for Julie Sullivan*, Edward Smithson, John distributions Fiona McElduff*, Angie covariate measurement errors in logistic Snow, Nick Adams Wade, Mario Cortina-Borja regression Zahirul Hoque*, Shahadut Hossain The evaluation of an online learning Information capacity designs for environment for facilitating statistics generalised linear models On diffusion processes with Gaussian learning Jenny Freeman*, Martine Taryn Swan*, James McGree, Susan Lewis, marginals Syeda Rabab Mudakkar*, Delbauve, Emma Sutton, Elouise Dave Woods Sergey Utev Thompson Consultation on the 2011 samples of Using multiple independent Supporting statistics in schools - a fresh anonymised records (SARs) combinations of genetic variants to approach in Queensland by a Parent Sam Smith*, Jo Wathan, Ed Fieldhouse strengthen causal inference in Support Group and the Statistical Mendelian randomisation studies: Society Miranda Mortlock Surveys for needs assessment for height and lung function as an example. planning eye care services – Tom Palmer*, David Evans, Correlations between question consideration of design effect and intra- George Davey Smith responses in a survey of ovarian cancer class correlation awareness Jessica Barrett*, Lesley Selvaraj Sivasubramaniam*, Stephen Is breast volume asymmetry a risk factor Fallowfield, Anne Fleissig Bremner, Clare Gilbert for breast cancer in healthy women - conflicting results from a case-control Exploring the nature of seasonality in Statistical analysis on economic burden and cohort study Andrew Titman*, Gillian marine biological data of malaria in a rural household: a case Lancaster, Diane Scutt Traiani Stari*, Eddie McKenzie, Steve Hay study of Osun State, Nigeria Abiola Okunlade*, Gbenga Akindele, Cardiovascular risk factors for South Assessing the effect of informative Olaniyi Olayiwola Asian, Africa-Caribbean and other censoring in piecewise parametric minority people living in England - a survival models Natalie Staplin Fertility and its proximate determinants Black Country heath survey In Oman Ruoling Chen*, Patricia Bond, Hilary Estimating badger numbers from M Mazharul Islam*, Atsu S S Dorvlo Paniagua, Jill Evans, Carol Reilly badger survey signs, with applications to bovine TB prediction Exploring the use of leverage tools to Incidence and predictors of diabetes in Camille Szmaragd*, Laura Green, Graham improve treatment adherence in an elderly population who were poor Medley, Andy Mitchell, William Browne England's community mental health but with high levels of social support care Maria Vazquez-Montes*, and low levels of cardiovascular risk and Public attitudes and behaviours towards Ksenija Yeeles depression, and have recently had rapid the environment economic improvements Kerry O'Neill*, Alex Thorton Demographic transitions in Bangladesh Ruoling Chen*, Zhi Hu, Zhuming Liu, and the emerging windows of Yiqing Song Refining bootstrap methods in opportunities and challenges dependent data structures: is there M Mazharul Islam Concentration risk in credit portfolios room for improvement? Rutang Thanawalla Giancarlo Manzi Working as an applied statistician in Primary Care and General Practice Exact distributions and sequential Environmental Factors affecting Health Andrea Roalfe*, Sayeed Haque, Monte Carlo for change points in India Kishore K Das Roger Holder Christopher Nam*, John Aston, Adam Johansen Gaussian process emulation for second- Learning by looking: enhanced data order Monte Carlo simulations investigation utilizing visual display Census rehearsal 2009 Jill Johnson*, John Paul Gosling, techniques Wendy Dickinson Tom Gerlach*, Zoe Hartland, Justin Marc Kennedy Anderson, Marie Lisa Burrough, Statistical analysis for health-care Mahari Tikabo decisions: a case study on a clinical survey concerning STEMI patients Francesca Ieva*, Anna Maria Paganoni

21 RSS 2010

Thanks and acknowledgements to those responsible for organising the conference

Members of the conference RSS Staff and stewards programme committee Paul Gentry, Sarah Barker, Mawreen Vern Farewell (chair) Chapman, Teresa Dewane, Andrew MRC Cambridge Hunter, Abdel Khairoun, Anna Mair, Sarah Simpson, Charlotte Stovell, Toni Deborah Aniyeloye Young and fellow staff at the Royal Department of Health / Young Statistical Society. Also to Paul Baxter, Statisticians Section Simon Harden and Adele Marshall for stewarding. John Copas University of Warwick / Chair RSS 2008 Production Conference Rachel Hedley, Gareth Glynn and Carolyn Craggs colleagues at Wild Strawberry Consultant/Quality Improvement Communications Section (www.wildstrawberry.uk.com) for publication design and production Vanessa Didelez University of Bristol / Research Section Paul Arrowsmith and colleagues at Mills Media Group Valerie Isham (www.millsmediagroup.com) for AV University College London / RSS theme support director for meetings & conferences Venue Frank Nolan ONS / Official Statistics Section Colin McEvoy and colleagues at the Brighton Centre. Matthew Sperrin University of Manchester Amy Hollis and colleagues at Kudos Catering. Angela Talbot MRC Cambridge Judith Sturges, Nicola Collins and colleagues at Visit Brighton.

22 k c o l r e h S e v i l C : y h p a Errol Street EC1 provides a light, airy and r g o

t flexible venue, whatever event you are o h organising. P

Book an event at the RSS and you can be assured of a friendly Venue hire welcome to a flexible and attractive venue with a cutting edge audiovisual system plus a full range of catering services.

Set in a converted Victorian school close to the Barbican Whether it’s an annual meeting, Christmas party, press centre, our Errol Street headquarters in London EC1 launch, wedding or small seminar, we’ll ensure your event provides you with a light, airy and flexible venue whatever runs smoothly from the moment you arrive till the last the event you are organising. There are four well-equipped person leaves. meeting rooms to choose from at competitive rates.

Full information from www.rss.org.uk/venuehire Contact the RSS venue hire team: [email protected]

23 LancasterLancaster PPostgraduateostgraduate StatisticsStatistics CentreCentre ShortShort CCoursesourses 22010-2011010-2011

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