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Sorbonne (Paris IV) Université De Californie À Berkeley Complexité Et Université Paris – Sorbonne (Paris IV) École Doctorale 5 : Concepts et langages Université de Californie à Berkeley Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management Doctorat en cotuelle : Disciplines : Philosophie, sciences de l’environnement Jennifer Lynn Wells Complexité et Changement Climatique : Une étude épistémologique des théories de la complexité Transdisciplinaires et leur apport aux phénomènes socio-écologiques Thèse soutenue en vue de l’obtention du grade de docteur le 23 juin 2009 Jury : M. Daniel Andler Professeur à l’Université Paris-Sorbonne, co-directeur de thèse Mme Amy Dahan-Dalmedico Directrice de recherche au CNRS et au Centre A. Koyré M. Jean-Pierre Dupuy Professeur à l’Université de Stanford, Directeur de recherche honoré au CNRS Mme Catherine Larrère Professeur à l’Université Panthéon-Sorbonne M. Pierre Livet Professeur à l’Université de Provence Mme Carolyn Merchant Professeur à l’Université de Californie à Berkeley, co-directrice de thèse Université Paris – Sorbonne (Paris IV) École Doctorale 5 : Concepts et langages Université de Californie à Berkeley Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management Doctorat en cotuelle : Disciplines : Philosophie, sciences de l’environnement Jennifer Lynn Wells Complexité et Changement Climatique : Une étude épistémologique des théories de la complexité Transdisciplinaires et leur apport aux phénomènes socio-écologiques Thèse soutenue en vue de l’obtention du grade de docteur le 23 juin 2009 Jury : M. Daniel Andler Professeur à l’Université Paris-Sorbonne, co-directeur de thèse Mme Amy Dahan-Dalmedico Directrice de recherche au CNRS et au Centre A. Koyré M. Jean-Pierre Dupuy Professeur à l’Université de Stanford, Directeur de recherche honoré au CNRS Mme Catherine Larrère Professeur à l’Université Panthéon-Sorbonne M. Pierre Livet Professeur à l’Université de Provence Mme Carolyn Merchant Professeur à l’Université de Californie à Berkeley, co-directrice de thèse 1 2 This dissertation is dedicated to William S. Wells, Doris J. Wells, Christopher G. Wells, Karen Wells, Rebecca S. Wells, Ronald Powers, Catherine E. Bostock, David Bostock, Andrew Bostock, William Bostock, and Samuel Powers 3 Comité Doctorale de l’Université de Californie à Berkeley Carolyn Merchant – Professeur de philosophie, éthique et histoire environnementale, Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management (ESPM), à l’Université de Californie à Berkeley (U.C. Berkeley) David Winickoff – Professeur de Bioéthique, ESPM, U.C. Berkeley Richard B. Norgaard – Professeur d’Environnement, Energy and Resource Group, U.C. Berkeley Daniel Andler – Professeur de Philosophie, à l’Université Paris-Sorbonne, Catherine Larrère – Professeur de Philosophie, à l’Université Panthéon-Sorbonne 4 Acknowledgments This dissertation spans continents, universities, languages, cultures, disciplines, the science and ethics of climate change, and of course, complexity theories. This has created quite a network of support and inspiration! I am forever indebted to Carolyn Merchant. Carolyn’s outstanding scholarly qualities and intellectual mentorship have prepared me for a life’s work. I will cherish the many memories of our time together. Moreover I have been very fortunate to work with David Winickoff, who’s agile, rigorous, and critical thinking has greatly influenced me. I am grateful to the transdisciplinary maverick Richard B. Norgaard for his wonderful support over the years, helping me to feel fully at home in the Bay Area, and even making gourmet lasagnas for the cross-campus complexity discussion group we held in his living room. Aside from his invaluable support since 2001, Daniel Andler has given me one of the most valuable lessons of my doctoral years, to argue with someone of a slightly different philosophical perspective, who is able to remain as open-minded as he is erudite and rigorous in his thinking. Daniel put me in touch with Catherine Larrere, which has been a most fortunate encounter. Catherine has been a great intellectual inspiration for me personally and a pioneer of environmental ethics in France. I offer her my heartfelt thanks for her mentorship and friendship since 2001. As for my doctoral defense jury in France, I would like to offer my warmest thanks to Amy Dahan-Dalmedico, Jean-Pierre Dupuy, and Pierre Livet. Thanks to Amy Dahan-Dalmedico for her intellectual leadership in science studies and climate change, her critiques of my work, and for welcoming me into her doctoral dissertation working group, where I learned so much about critiquing and conducting research at the doctoral level. Likewise I thank Jean-Pierre Dupuy for his work in areas so close to my heart, and for his generosity in providing me with many texts and commentaries early on in my graduate studies, giving me the hope that I could actually attempt such a topic. I offer a special thanks to Pierre Livet, a pioneer of complexity thinking in social systems, for joining my jury sight unseen. In institutional support I have been unusually fortunate. Numerous departments at University of California at Berkeley have welcomed me, notably the philosophy department where I enjoyed work and conversation with Samuel Scheffler (qualifying exam member), Alan Code, Hubert Dreyfus, and others. In France, I have been a visiting scholar for one full year with the environmental group PROSES at the University Sciences Politiques, I am very grateful to have been welcomed over the years into the wonderful community at Ecole Normale Supérieur, and for the steady support of the Sorbonne, Paris IV. Thanks to the Yale Fox Fellowship, the Hixon Center, and many others for generous funding. 5 I’d like to thank everyone at my home department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management in Berkeley, including Richard Battrick, Rosalyn Farmer, Doty Valrey, and all the wonderful faculty and graduate students at Society and Environment. A wonderful unintended consequence of this dissertation is that I have become personally acquainted with an extraordinary group of scholars. I would like to especially thank Edgar Morin, Timothy F.H. Allen, and Henri Atlan for their friendship, conversations, and comments; likewise climate scholars Paul Baer and Stephen Schneider, environmental ethicist Andrew Light, SFI faculty and community Geoffrey West, Doyne Farmer, Neo Martinez, Debora Hammond, Timothy Foxon, and Yaneer Bar-Yam of NECSI. Finally, I hope to meet Kurt Richardson, whose prolific work at the journal E:CO has greatly benefitted this dissertation. I thank complexity luminary Alfonso Montouri for hiring me as Assistant Professor at the California Institute of Integral Studies starting in August 2009. I thank my extraordinary new colleague Bradford Keeney. I am grateful to my family, friends, and communities! I have dedicated this dissertation to my family. In the Bay Area I have been blessed with friendships with Alastair Iles, Kamal Kampadia, Paul Baer, and many others, too numerous to mention but no less appreciated. I am eternally grateful to Juan Roy, who helped to inspire me to begin this dissertation, and to complete it through thick and thin. Finally, I thank Peggy Touvet, Francesco Colonna, Chloe Manfredi, Emeline LeGoff, Fanny Verrax, and especially Kent James, whose support has helped me to complete it! 6 Table of Contents Acknowledgments 5 Table of Contents 7 Table of Lists 9 Introduction 11 Part I Complexity Theories: 23 A transdisciplinary Survey Chapter 1 Elucidating Complexity Theories 25 Chapter 2 Complexity and the Natural Sciences 91 Chapter 3 Complexity and the Social Sciences 131 Chapter 4 Complexity and Social Theory 179 Chapter 5 Complexity, Transdisciplinary Theory, and the 211 Philosophy of Science Part II Complexity and Climate Change 271 Chapter 6 Complexity in Climate Change and International 273 Assessments Chapter 7 Complexity, Ethical Theory and Climate Change: 347 Implications for Climate Ethics and Policy Conclusion 415 Bibliography 425 7 8 List of Tables Table 1.1 Generalized Complexity Framework (GCF), p.35 Table 1.2 The Hierarchy of Constitution and Disciplines, p.69 Table 1.3 A Hierarchy of Systems Classified by Complexity of Feedback Modes, p.72 Table 2.1 Definitions of Complex Adaptive Systems in the Natural Sciences, p.98 Table 2.2 Definitions of Complex Adaptive Systems, p.99 Table 2.3 Examples of phenomena that only exist in natural science systems, p.99 Table 2.4 Key Complexity Terms and Founders in those fields, p.101 Table 3.1 Complexity Theory Approaches to Social Systems: Three Realms, p.134 Table 3.2 Information Estimates for Straight English Text and Illustrated Text, p.138 Table 3.3 Estimates of Complexity – Primarily Based upon Genome Length, p.139 Table 3.4 Kline’s Estimations of Degrees of Complexity at Different Scales, p.141 Table 3.5 Complexity Fundamentals and Major Thinkers, p.171 Table 4.1 Three Theses in Social Theory and the Main and Secondary Complexity Fundamentals Supporting these Theories, p.179 Table 5.1 Five Transdisciplinary Fields, Leading Scholars, and Major Foci of Each, p.218 Table 5.2 A Hierarchy of Systems Classified by Complexity of Feedback Modes, p.236 Table 5.3 Systematic Knowledge Concerning the Limits to Systematic Knowledge, p.261 Table 5.4 The Limits to Science, p.264 Table 6.1 Epistemological Fundamentals of Complexity and their Expression in the Climate Change Literature, p.276 Table 6.2 Comparison of Mainstream and Complexity Conceptual Frameworks, p.302 9 Table 7.1 Axes II and III of the Generalized Complexity Framework, p.348
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