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The Socio-Economic Impacts of the 2015/16 EL Niño Induced Drought in Swaziland

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The Socio-Economic Impacts of the 2015/16 EL Niño Induced Drought in Swaziland The Socio-Economic Impacts of the 2015/16 EL Niño Induced Drought in Swaziland Prepared by: Swaziland Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre Email: [email protected] Website: www.separc.co.sz APP: SEPARC INSIGHTS Tel: +268 2404 3033 / 2823 Prepared For: NATIONAL DISASTER MANAGEMENT AGENCY (NDMA) 30th JUNE 2017 Table of Contents 1.1. Background ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.2. Contextualising El Niño Induced Droughts in Swaziland ................................................ 3 1.3. Socioeconomic Impacts of Drought ................................................................................. 4 1.4. Framework for Assessing Socioeconomic Impacts of Drought ........................................ 5 1.5. Prior Studies and Mitigation Activities in Swaziland ....................................................... 6 2.1. Research Design and Methods ......................................................................................... 8 2.2. Survey Data Collection ..................................................................................................... 9 2.2.1. Piloting ............................................................................................................................. 9 2.2.2. Data Collection ............................................................................................................... 10 2.3. Data Quality Assurance .................................................................................................. 10 2.4. Data Analysis .................................................................................................................. 10 3.1. Profile of Sampled Households ...................................................................................... 12 3.2. Asset Mapping and Assessment of Risk to Poverty ........................................................ 13 3.3. Household Expenditure and Income Availability .......................................................... 17 3.4. Availability of Potable Water .......................................................................................... 18 3.5. Drought Impacts and Significance ................................................................................. 19 3.5.1. Direct and Indirect (direct and indirect loss or costs) of the 2015/16 drought on households ...................................................................................................................... 19 3.5.2. Impact Significance ........................................................................................................ 25 3.5.3. Household’s Responses and Coping Strategies to Drought Impacts ............................. 44 4.1. Introduction ................................................................................................................... 48 4.2. Understanding the Impacts of Drought ......................................................................... 49 4.3. Composition of the Economy in Swaziland .................................................................... 51 4.4. Sectorial Impacts ............................................................................................................ 53 4.4.1. Water Sector ................................................................................................................... 53 4.4.2. Agriculture Sector ........................................................................................................... 55 4.4.3. Energy – Electricity Production Sector .......................................................................... 61 4.4.4. Natural Environment & Ecosystem Productivity Sector ................................................ 63 4.4.5. Tourism Sector ............................................................................................................... 65 4.4.6. Urban Development ....................................................................................................... 66 4.5. Early Warning System .................................................................................................... 67 4.6. Monetary Cost Estimation of the 2015/16 Drought on Swaziland’s Economy ..............68 5.1. Policy Objectives ............................................................................................................. 77 5.2. Instruments for Drought Disaster Management ........................................................... 77 5.3. Implications of the 2015/16 Drought on NDS, SDGs and AU 2063 Agenda ................. 82 6.1. Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 84 6.2. Recommendations ..........................................................................................................86 6.2.1. Further Research ........................................................................................................... 88 ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The study would not have been possible without the contributions from households across Swaziland, and stakeholders from the Government of Swaziland, Public Enterprises, and Business who responded to the questionnaires. iii ACRONYMS & ABBREVEATIONS ACAT Africa Cooperative Agricultural Trust AIDS Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome AU African Union CBS Central Bank of Swaziland DPMO Deputy Prime Minister’s Office EA (Census) Enumeration Areas EDF European Union Development Fund ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation EU European Union EUR EURO FFP Food for Peace GAIN Global Agricultural Information Network GDP Gross Domestic Product GoS Government of Swaziland HIV Human Immunodeficiency Virus ID Identification Document IPCC International Panel on Climate Change KOBWA Komati Basin Water Authority NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NAMBOARD National Marketing Board NATCOM National Commissioner of Police NDMA National Disaster Management Agency NDS National Development Strategy (2010) NERMAP National Emergency Response, Mitigation, and Adaptation Plan -2016-2022 NERCHA National Emergency Response Council on HIV/AIDS NMC National Maize Corporation OCHA Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs RSPS Royal Swaziland Police Service SBIS Swaziland Broadcasting and Information Service SEC Swaziland Electricity Company SERA Swaziland Energy Regulatory Authority SDGs Sustainable Development Goals SHIES Swaziland Household Income and Expenditure Survey STA Swaziland Tourism Authority SWSC Swaziland Water Services Corporation UN United Nations UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund USAID United States Agency for International Development VAC Vulnerability Assessment Committee WASH Water Sanitation and Hygiene iv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Report Summary his report provides detailed findings of an investigation into the socioeconomic impacts of the 2015/16 El Niño drought in Swaziland. It records the direct and indirect effects of T the drought on the economy of Swaziland and documents how it has affected households, businesses, and the environment. The economic evaluation of drought impacts is essential in order to define efficient and sustainable management and mitigation strategies. The study documents the effects of the 2015/16 drought on the economy of Swaziland, extrapolates how it may have affected the implementation of the country’s developmental mandate, and deduces the suitability of the country’s disaster risk management policy to respond to natural disasters like droughts. The study concludes by quantifying the economic costs and overall effects, in monetary terms, of the drought to Swaziland. Background The Government of Swaziland declared the drought a natural disaster in February 18, 2016. Immediately after that, the country launched the National Emergency Response, Mitigation, and Adaptation Plan (NERMAP) (2016-2017) and rerouted funds to drought relief. The government further invited the International Community, local organisations, and businesses to assist in curbing the adverse effects of the drought. A question of strategic national importance relates to how the drought affected households, businesses, and the environment in Swaziland. Similarly, policymakers are interested to know the coping strategies employed by households, businesses, and organisations involved in the management of the environment to lessen the effects of the drought on wellbeing, profitability, and environmental resilience, respectively. The study, conducted at the request of the National Disaster Management Agency (NDMA), received financial support from the NDMA, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in Swaziland and the Government of Swaziland through its annual Parliamentary Grant given to the Swaziland Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (SEPARC). Methods The study followed established methodologies for conducting studies on the socioeconomic impacts of droughts. First, the study conducted a detailed household survey covering 2,958 households in all the 55 constituencies of Swaziland. Using the 2007 Household and Housing Characteristics Census’ Enumeration Areas (EA), 10 households were randomly selected from each EA and from each household, a respondent 18 years or older (ideally a breadwinner or anyone involved in food preparation or decision-making at the household) was selected to answer the questionnaire. The household surveys focussed on both rural and urban households and sought to solicit information on how the drought (may or
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