Assessing Tracked and Wheeled Vehicles for Australian Mounted Close Combat Operations Lessons Learned in Recent Conflicts, Impact of Advanced Technologies, and System-Level Implications John Matsumura, John Gordon IV, Randall Steeb, Scott Boston, Caitlin Lee, Phillip Padilla, John Parmentola C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR1834 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-9743-9 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2017 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: Air National Guard photo by Master Sgt. Scott Thompson. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface The Australian government is on the verge of making major recapitali- sation decisions about its mechanised land forces. The under lying mod- ernisation initiative is referred to as Proj ect LAND 400, which, along with training and integration capabilities, largely consists of replacing key combat vehicles, including the Australian Light Armoured Vehicle (ASLAV) and the M113AS4 armoured personnel carrier (APC) with an infantry fighting vehicle (IFV).1 Proj ect LAND 400 involves planning over a relatively long time horizon and by intent is shaping forces through a relatively low- risk approach that will, within this context, maximise combat effectiveness.2 To assist with this decision, the Defence Science and Technology (DST) Group asked the RAND Corporation for help in assessing the range of trade- offs between tracked and wheeled combat vehicle classes. This request entailed completing three tasks. The first task involved assessing lessons learned about tracked and wheeled combat vehicles in recent conflict in vari ous parts of the world; the second task involved assessing the implications of advanced technologies on the vehicle classes; 1 The workhere is focused on Phase 3 of the Proj ect LAND 400 initiative. Phase 1 of the initiative was largely a scoping activity; Phase 2 is focused on a follow-on mounted combat reconnaissance capability, largely defined by a combat reconnaissance vehicle (CRV) replace- ment to the ASLAV; and Phase 3 is focused on a follow-on mounted close combat capability, largely defined by an IFV replacement to the M113AS4. 2 An industry pre sen ta tion given by BRIG Greg McGlone, Director General, Combined Arms Fighting System, on November 27, 2015, indicates an interest in “minimising develop- mental risk” using “mature technologies with a growth path.” iii iv Assessing Vehicles for Australian Mounted Close Combat Operations and the third task involved examining system- level implications of the dif­fer ent classes of vehicles. This work should be of interest to Australian defence policymak- ers and planners, especially those directly affiliated with the Proj ect LAND 400 initiative. U.S. policymakers and planners and other mem- bers of the American, British, Canadian, and Australian (ABCA) armies may find this work of interest, because it identifies the trade- off space that one of the core member allies of this group faces in its effort to modernise its mechanised forces, and it may offer ideas with re spect to future integration and collaboration among the larger group of allies. This research was conducted within the Acquisition and Technol- ogy Policy Center (ATP) of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD). NSRD conducts research and analy sis on defence and national security topics for the U.S. and allied defence, foreign policy, homeland security, and intelligence communities and founda- tions and other nongovernmental organisations that support defence and national security analy sis. For more information on the Acquisi- tion and Technology Policy Center, see www . rand . org / nsrd / ndri / centers / atp or contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page). Table of Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. ix Tables .............................................................................. xi Summary .........................................................................xiii Acknowl edgments ............................................................ xxxi CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Background ......................................................................... 1 Objective and Approach ........................................................... 8 Organisation of This Report .....................................................11 CHAPTER TWO Task 1 Results: Lessons Learned About the Expected Per for mance of Tracked and Wheeled Vehicles in Combat ....................................................................13 Defining the Mea sures of Per for mance of Combat Vehicles .............................................................13 Technology- Related Goals for Proj ect LAND 400 IFV Per for mance ...................................................................15 Lessons Learned About IFV Per for mance from Previous Tests and Studies ....................................................................21 Summary of Expectations of Per for mance .................................... 27 v vi Assessing Vehicles for Australian Mounted Close Combat Operations CHAPTER THREE Task 1 Results: Lessons Learned About Tracked and Wheeled Vehicles Meeting Expected Per for mance in Recent Conflicts .........................................................29 Summary of the Cases Examined ...............................................29 Case 1— Mali, Operation Serval (January 2013– July 2014) ................31 Case 2— Panama, Operation Just Cause (December 1989– January 1990) .......................................... 42 Case 3— The Balkans and Kosovo (1999–2002) ..............................49 Case 4— Iraq, Operation Iraqi Freedom (2003–2011) ...................... 56 Case 5— Afghanistan, Operation Enduring Freedom (2001–2014) ....... 64 Case 6— The Battle of the Falklands (April– June 1982) .....................71 Case 7— Vietnam (1965–1975) ..................................................82 Case 8— East Timor (1999–2000) ............................................. 90 Case 9— Eastern Ukraine (2014–2016) ........................................95 Lessons Learned from the Nine Case Studies ............................... 108 Synopsis of Lessons Learned ................................................... 111 CHAPTER FOUR Task 2 Results: The Impact of Advanced Technologies ................. 115 Hybrid Approaches That Bridge Tracks and Wheels ....................... 115 Enemy Threats and Countermea sures ........................................ 120 Influence of Vehicle Weight on Choice of Suspension ...................... 121 Pos si ble Mitigating Factors for Wheeled Vehicles ........................... 123 Integrating Protection with Mobility ......................................... 125 Firepower Options .............................................................. 128 Other Areas to Consider ....................................................... 129 CHAPTER FIVE Task 3 Results: System- Level Implications ............................... 133 Why a System- Level Perspective? ............................................. 133 Lessons Learned from U.S. Army’s Modernisation Plan ................... 136 What Is the System- Level Impact of a New IFV for Australia? ................................................................ 138 Contents vii CHAPTER SIX What the Assessment Means for Proj ect LAND 400 and the Path Ahead ....................................................... 141 What the Assessment Means for Proj ect LAND 400 ...................... 141 The Path Ahead.................................................................. 147 Abbreviations ................................................................... 149 Bibliography .................................................................... 153 Figures 2.1. Climates of the Asia- Pacific Region Tend to Be Tropical and Wet ....................................................18 2.2. One Method of Comparison: Percentage of Rural Population Without Access to All-Season Roads ................19 2.3. Travel Time for Dif­fer ent Terrain Types, Showing Increasing Delays with Wheeled Vehicles as Surface Becomes More Challenging ......................................