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The Implementation of Monetary Policy: Lessons from the Crisis And The Implementation of Monetary Policy: Lessons from the Crisis and Challenges for Coming Years The Implementation of Monetary Policy: Lessons from the Crisis and Challenges for Coming Years Proceedings of the First SEACEN-CEMLA Conference Sasana Kijang, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia October 13-15, 2011 Copyright © 2012 by CEMLA and The SEACEN Centre All rights reserved. This book or any portion thereof may not be reproduced or used in any manner whatsoever without the express written permission of the publisher except for the use of brief quota- tions in a book review. Simultaneously published in Mexico and Malaysia. First Printing, 2012 ISBN 978-983-9478-14-3 Published jointly by: The South East Asian Central Banks Center for Latin American Monetary (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre Studies (CEMLA) Level 5, Sasana Kijang Durango 54 Bank Negara Malaysia Colonia Roma Norte 2 Jalan Dato’ Onn Delegación Cuahutémoc 50480 Kuala Lumpur 06700 México D. F. Malaysia México <www.seacen.org> <www.cemla.org> Dr. Zeti Akhtar Aziz1 Contents Foreword 1 Session 1 Opening & Keynote Address Muhammad bin Ibrahim 5 Welcoming Remarks Keynote speaker Stephen G. Cecchetti 13 Monetary Policy Lessons Learned from the Crisis and the Postcrisis Landscape Session 2 Challenges and Issues in the Postcrisis Environment Speakers José Manuel González-Páramo 37 The Conduct of Monetary Policy: Lessons from the Crisis and Challenges for the Coming Years Reza Y. Siregar, Vincent C.S. Lim, Victor Pontines, Jami’ah Jaffar, 51 and Nurulhuda M. Hussain Capital Flows Management during the Post-2007 Global Financial Crisis: The Experiences of SEACEN Economies Julio Velarde 119 The Implementation of Monetary Policy: Lessons from the Crisis and Challenges for Coming Years seacen - cemla v Foreword Lead discussant Julio Roberto Suárez Guerra 133 Comments on presentations Luncheon Address Zeti Akhtar Aziz 145 Charting Sustainable Growth in Asia and Latin America in a New Global Economy Session 3 Macroeconomics Effects of the Increases in Food and Commodity Prices Speakers Diwa C. Guinigundo 155 Making Monetary Policy Work amidst Rising Commodity Prices Gustavo E. González 165 Macroeconomic Effects of Commodity Prices Evolution and its Relation with Monetary Policy in Emerging Countries Lead discussants Benny Popoitai 185 Comments on presentations Myrtle Halsall 191 Comments on presentations Session 4 Managing Volatile Exchange Rate and Capital Flows Speakers Suchada Kirakul 203 Managing Volatile Exchange Rate and Capital Flows: An Emerging Asian Perspective José Darío Uribe 257 Capital Flows, Policy Challenges and Policy Options vi seacen - cemla Dr. Zeti Akhtar Aziz1 Lead discussants Zoljargal Naidansuren 275 Javier Guzmán Calafell 279 Comments on presentations Dinner Address José Darío Uribe 289 Lessons from the 2008 Financial Crisis: How Financial Infrastructures Mitigate Systemic Fragility Session 5 Postcrisis Appraisal of Monetary Policy Framework Speakers Andrew Filardo 299 Ensuring Price Stability in Postcrisis Asia: Lessons from the Recovery R. Sean Craig 355 Lessons of the Global Financial Crisis for Monetary Policy Frameworks Lead discussants Halim Alamsyah 367 Enrique Alberola 383 Session 6 The Role of Central Banks in Financial Stability: Macro- and Micro-prudential Policies Speakers Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus 395 Role of Central Banks in Financial Stability: Macro- and Micro-prudential Policies seacen - cemla vii Foreword Mario Bergara 411 Financial Stability Nets: Complementing and Reinforcing Micro- and Macro-perspectives Ernesto Sepúlveda 425 Financial Stability and the Role of Central Banks: The Case of Mexico Lead discussant K. G. D. D. Dheerasinghe 445 Comments on presentations Session 7 Efficacy of Monetary Policy Implementation Postcrisis: Scope for International and Regional Cooperation? Panelists Lars Nyberg 451 Efficacy of Monetary Policy Postcrisis Masahiro Kawai 461 Scope for Regional Exchange Rate Policy Coordination in Asia Closing Ceremony A.G. Karunasena 477 Closing Remarks Javier Guzmán Calafell 481 Closing Remarks viii seacen - cemla Dr. Zeti Akhtar Aziz1 Foreword The recent financial crisis in advanced economies has been a wake-up call for policymakers and academics alike. The crisis has underscored the limitations of the prevailing paradigm and the analytical approaches that guided macroeconomic policy and the regulation and supervision of financial intermediaries. Accordingly, in the aftermath of the crisis there is underway a shift of emphasis from the stability of individual in- stitutions to that of the system as a whole, and, at the same time, a shift in view towards tighter interdependence between monetary policy and financial stability. Both of these policy shifts are expected to bring into sharper consistency and alignment the nexus between the financial system and the real economy. How can we make this paradigm shift operational in Asian and Latin American central banks? How should Asian and Latin American central banks operationalize their financial stability mandates without jeopardizing price stability? How and to what extent can regional monetary and financial cooperation among emerg- ing markets contribute in operationalizing this shift in emphasis? What are the implications of commodity price booms and volatile exchange rates and capital flows on the operationalization of such financial and price stability mandates in Asian and Latin American central banks? These were some of the important questions which were raised and addressed at the inaugural SEACEN-CEMLA Conference on “The Imple- mentation of Monetary Policy: Lessons from the Crisis and Challenges for Coming Years”, hosted by Bank Negara Malaysia and co-sponsored by Banco de la República (Central Bank of Colombia) in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on October 13-15, 2011. seacen - cemla 1 Foreword The Conference provided a unique opportunity for central banks from the Asian, Latin American and Caribbean regions for the sharing of experiences and deliberating on the lessons learned from monetary policy responses to the recent global financial crisis, as well as for iden- tifying the challenges ahead in the formulation and implementation of monetary policy. The discussions provided some food for thought on how existing policy frameworks can be refined, including the predica- tion of a tighter linkage between monetary policy and financial stability as well as a greater awareness of the international dimension of such refinements. The discussions also illuminated the need to manage expectations, especially in terms of recognising the limits that central banks face in managing the economy. A number of key messages emerged from the discussions, including the following: first, additional emphasis has to be accorded to the risks associated with the buildup of financial imbalances and this will require policies that aim at limiting the exposure of the financial system to such systemic risks. Specifically, the implementation of policies based on a macroprudential framework requires a set of instruments that has to be wider than the standard monetary policy and supervisory toolkit. Second, the implementation of such policies will entail an institutional framework that governs the deployment of these sets of instruments, as well as a clear delineation between the mandates of monetary and macroprudential policies. Third, central banks should formally take a lead role in the formulation and implementation of such macropruden- tial policies. Fourth, in an environment of soaring commodity prices driven by unsustainable strong global demand, central banks should be ready for a more aggressive monetary policy stance. Finally, central banks need to take better account of the impact of their actions on oth- er economies, and as such greater central bank cooperation is needed to achieve a favourable outcome in this increasingly globalised world. We are indeed elated that the papers presented in this Conference are being made available to a wider audience through the publication of the Conference Proceedings. The first Conference is paving the way for further collaboration between SEACEN and CEMLA, including through 2 seacen - cemla Dr. Zeti Akhtar Aziz1 annual joint conferences to be held alternatively in Latin America and Asia, and a joint website which features collaborative activities be- tween the two institutions and linkages to their respective member cen- tral banks/monetary authorities. Looking forward, it is hoped that these efforts will be platforms for Asian and Latin American central banks to promote cross-regional collaboration in central bank learning, strength- en networking relationships, share expertise and exchange valuable ideas and experiences from the two regions. A.G. Karunasena J.E. Guzmán Calafell Executive Director General Director The SEACEN Centre CEMLA seacen - cemla 3 Session 1 Opening and Keynote Address Muhammad bin Ibrahim Muhammad bin Ibrahim Welcoming Remarks On behalf of Bank Negara Malaysia, I have the pleasure today to wel- come distinguished Governors, resource persons, and participants to this inaugural SEACEN-CEMLA Conference on Monetary Policy. I wish to extend a warm welcome to all our guests, especially those who have travelled long distances across different time zones to join us today in Kuala Lumpur. This two-day conference will address a wide range of central banking issues. They include the challenges to monetary policy in responding to commodity price increases, capital flows and exchange rate volatility; the role of central banks in financial stability;
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