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On the Horizon. the Environmental Scanning Newsletter for Leaders In DOCUMENT RESUME ED 362 110 HE 026 718 AUTHOR Morrison, JamesL., Ed. TITLE On the Horizon.The Environmental Scanning Newsletter for Leaders inHigher Education, 1992-1993. INSTITUTION North CarolinaUniv., Chapel Hill. School of Medicine. PUB DATE 93 NOTE 84p.; Set includes preview issue. AVAILABLE FROMOn the Horizon, CB3500 PeabodyHail, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3500 (individual subscription, $19.50per year; annual charter institutional subscription, $38.50!make checks payable to UNC School of Education). PUB TYPE Collected Works Serials (022) JOURNAL CIT On the Horizon; vl n1-5 1992-Jun 1993 EDRS PRICE MF01/PC04 Plus Postage. DESCRIPTORS Academic Freedom; College Faculty;Cultural Pluralism; Distance Education; *EconomiCChange; Educational Environment; *EnvironmentalScanning; *Futures (of Society); Hi',herEducation; Political Issues; *Politics of Education;Postsecondary Education; *Social Change; *Technological Advancement; Trend Analysis ABSTRACT This document consists of thepreview issue and first five issues of a new newsletterdesigned to alert members of the higher education community to drivingforces and potential developments in the macroenvironmentthat constitute threatsor opportunities to colleges and universities.It reports news from the social, technological, economic,environmental, and political sectors, local through global.Among this series' major afticlesare the following: "What'son the Horizon for Higher Education?" (Georgrd Keller); "A New Social Charterfor Higher Education?" (Ian Wilson); "Education in the Information Society"(Peter C. Bishop); and "It's Time to Re-Invent Higher Education--AStrategic Assessment" (David Pearce Snyder). Other arti'cles discussreasons higher education needs to beware of technology, why increasingthe titts between colleges and universities and businessmay lead to conditions that threaten academic freedom, the issue ofestablishing a free-standing black cultural center on campus, andan examination of three college teachers who won teaching awardsyet were denied tenure. (GLR) *********************************************************************** Reproductions supplied by EDRSare the best that can be made * from the original document. *********************************************************************** the environmental scanning newsletter for leaders in higher education "PERMISSION TO REPRODUCE THIS U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION improvement MATERIAL HAS BEEN GRANTED BY Office of Educateanat Research and EDUCATIONAL RESOURCESINFORMATION James L. Morrison CENTER (ERIC) oThm document hes beenreproduced as t mod horn the person ofotpanaation noting It snot changes have beenmade to imptove reproducuon eueItty TO THE EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES Perron of worn or opinions slatedin this 00Cu. mord pp not necessemyreprefenl official INFORMATION CENTER (EPIC)." 0 OEM pdathott or ooecv BEST COPY PIAILARE the newsletter of environmental scanning Prr:tiew Ecitica, &Kilmer in higher education 1992 Editor's Column United Way Strategic Institute WELCOME TO Publishes What Lies Ahead: A Decade OUR FIRST ISSUEof Decision The United Way Strategic Instituie's Environmental Scanning Conunittee We live in turbulent times. During has just released the 1992-93 edition of What Lies Ahead. In this publication, the the startling developments in the formerCommittee updated the nine forces of change in American society identified in Soviet Union last year, David Brinkley their 1989 publication, What Lies Ahead: Countdown to the 2Ist Century. These stated that "each day seems to bring the forces of change, called "ChangeDrivers" by the Committee, are summarized as dawn of a new era." Certainly the fall of follows: the Berlin wall, the unification of Ger- many, the breakup of the Warsaw Pact, ChangeDriver 1: The Maturation of America. The population continues to age, and the breakup of the Soviet Union, with the consequence that U.S. culfaire is shifting from a youth orientation to one have transformed our world. focused on aging. The age groups that will demand the most attention are the 35- to On the horizon is the possibility that 54-year-olds and those over 80 (the fastest-growing segment of the population). the European Community may include Political activism, reflecting an older population, will be pragmatic and measured. Eastern Europe in the largest free trade The growth of the U.S. workforce will continue to slow, implying a more mature zone the world has yet seen. In response, and experienced workforce. New technologies and changing job conditions will other free trade zones are in the making challenge workers. Employers will increasingly offer older workers phased retire- (e.g., the North American Free Trade ment, flexible work schedules, and short time projects. More middle aged workers Treaty between Canada, the United States will start their own firms as opportunities for advancement are increasingly limited. and Mexico; Australia and New Zealand, Not only is the population maturing, but the physical infrastructure of the country and several South American countries). (roads, bridges) is aging, and will demand more and more attention in this decade. Are these signals of another momentous Government will increasingly join with business to cope with infrastructure repair eventinternational free trade with con- costs. comitant dislocations of workforces and industries? If so, what are the implica- ChangeDriver 2: The Mosaic Society. The diversity of America's population tions for continuing edinmtion and for the will become more pronounced, and, perhaps, increasingly polarized between the globalization of the curriculum? educational and economic haves and have nots. It is imperative that Americans and On the Horizon alerts members of their institutions recognize and support the value of diverse cultures within the the higher education community to driv- society. Racial and ethnic tensions will remain high. Schools will implement alterna- ing forces and potential developments in tive options like magnet schools, year-round schools, and alternative teacher certifi- the macroenvironment that constitute cation to address issues of quality, cost-effectiveness and teacher snortages. Minori- threats or opportunities to colleges and ties and women will comprise a larger proportion of the workforce. The ability to universities. We intend to live up to our manage a diverse workforce will remain important due to its increasingly multilingual title, On the Horizon, and even to our and multicultural nature. There will be greater availability of child-care benefits, ever-so-faint subtitle on the masthead, including parental leave and flexible work hours. Workers will have more benefits, Beyond the Horizon. To do so, we have but will share in bearing their costs. Finally, minorities will continue to seek greater asked a number of individuals to serve as political influence commensurate with their numbers. consulting and contributing editors some prominent in higher education, oth- ChangeDriver 3: Redefinition of Individual and Societal Roles. There will be ers promiaent within the futures field. a continuing shift of responsibilities between societal sectors and between individuals From time to time tLey will contribute and institutions. Reforms in public education will continue to emphasize the decen- Editorial, p.2 ChangeDrivers, p.2 Page 1 3 On the Hotizon DRAFTPreview Ism. Editorial, from p.1 ChangeDrivers, from p.1 the pattern established in the 1980s, when pieces on developments they see on (ortralization of authority to teachers andauthority and financial responsibility perhaps beyond) the horizon that could parents (school-based management) andpassed from the federal government to affect your work and future in higherchoice program& The pressure from in-states and localities. Funding inatases education. They will also speculate ondividuals for empowerment to act forarc not lilcely, given growing fiscal prob- the implications these developmentsthemselves will incre:se. (The focus onlems at all levels of government. There have far colleges and universities. Youwellness illustrates a movement from awill be continued privatization of govern- may not always agree with what theyproblem-based care system to one re-ment services, including prisons and so- say, but we hope you will agree that thequiring more personal responsibility forcial services. By the end of the 1990s, material stimulates your thinking. eating and living "right.") Governmentthem will be greater focus on individual In this preview edition we catego-support of human services will continueself-sufficiency and less reliance on insti- rize our news into social, technological, ChangeDrivers, p.5 economic, environmental, and political Contents of the Preview Issue (STEEP) sectors, and seek to include developments in these areas at the local CbangeDrivers p.1 Technological and global arenas. In subsequent edi- Editor's Column p.1 Environment p.8 tions we will add fc-T other sections. Social p.6 Economic One, Issues, is an ongoing Delphi pro- Political 119 cess focusing on issues faging higher educatica. Each edition will mlate your Editorial Board views of these issilles, their importance, James L. Monison, Editor George Keller where they are beaded, and their impli- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill University of Pennsylvania cations for colleges and universities. Bernard Glusman, Associate Editor Lowell Lueck Another, Tools, is a look at both new Pragmatix:InformationDesign Western Illinois University and proven
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