On the Horizon. the Environmental Scanning Newsletter for Leaders In

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AUTHOR Morrison, JamesL., Ed. TITLE On the Horizon.The Environmental Scanning Newsletter for Leaders inHigher Education, 1992-1993. INSTITUTION North CarolinaUniv., Chapel Hill. School of Medicine. PUB DATE 93 NOTE 84p.; Set includes preview issue. AVAILABLE FROMOn the Horizon, CB3500 PeabodyHail, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3500 (individual subscription, $19.50per year; annual charter institutional subscription, $38.50!make checks payable to UNC School of Education). PUB TYPE Collected Works Serials (022) JOURNAL CIT On the Horizon; vl n1-5 1992-Jun 1993

EDRS PRICE MF01/PC04 Plus Postage. DESCRIPTORS Academic Freedom; College Faculty;Cultural Pluralism; Distance Education; *EconomiCChange; Educational Environment; *EnvironmentalScanning; *Futures (of Society); Hi',herEducation; Political Issues; *Politics of Education;Postsecondary Education; *Social Change; *Technological Advancement; Trend Analysis

ABSTRACT This document consists of thepreview issue and first five issues of a new newsletterdesigned to alert members of the higher education community to drivingforces and potential developments in the macroenvironmentthat constitute threatsor opportunities to colleges and universities.It reports news from the social, technological, economic,environmental, and political sectors, local through global.Among this series' major afticlesare the following: "What'son the Horizon for Higher Education?" (Georgrd Keller); "A New Social Charterfor Higher Education?" (Ian Wilson); "Education in the Information Society"(Peter C. Bishop); and "It's Time to Re-Invent Higher Education--AStrategic Assessment" (David Pearce Snyder). Other arti'cles discussreasons higher education needs to beware of technology, why increasingthe titts between colleges and universities and businessmay lead to conditions that threaten academic freedom, the issue ofestablishing a free-standing black cultural center on campus, andan examination of three college teachers who won teaching awardsyet were denied tenure. (GLR)

*********************************************************************** Reproductions supplied by EDRSare the best that can be made * from the original document. *********************************************************************** the environmental scanning newsletter for leaders in higher education

"PERMISSION TO REPRODUCE THIS U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION improvement MATERIAL HAS BEEN GRANTED BY Office of Educateanat Research and EDUCATIONAL RESOURCESINFORMATION James L. Morrison CENTER (ERIC) oThm document hes beenreproduced as t mod horn the person ofotpanaation noting It snot changes have beenmade to imptove reproducuon eueItty TO THE EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES Perron of worn or opinions slatedin this 00Cu. mord pp not necessemyreprefenl official INFORMATION CENTER (EPIC)." 0 OEM pdathott or ooecv BEST COPY PIAILARE the newsletter of environmental scanning Prr:tiew Ecitica, &Kilmer in higher education 1992

Editor's Column United Way Strategic Institute WELCOME TO Publishes What Lies Ahead: A Decade OUR FIRST ISSUEof Decision

The United Way Strategic Instituie's Environmental Scanning Conunittee We live in turbulent times. During has just released the 1992-93 edition of What Lies Ahead. In this publication, the the startling developments in the formerCommittee updated the nine forces of change in American society identified in Soviet Union last year, David Brinkley their 1989 publication, What Lies Ahead: Countdown to the 2Ist Century. These stated that "each day seems to bring the forces of change, called "ChangeDrivers" by the Committee, are summarized as dawn of a new era." Certainly the fall of follows: the Berlin wall, the unification of Ger- many, the breakup of the Warsaw Pact, ChangeDriver 1: The Maturation of America. The population continues to age, and the breakup of the Soviet Union, with the consequence that U.S. culfaire is shifting from a youth orientation to one have transformed our world. focused on aging. The age groups that will demand the most attention are the 35- to On the horizon is the possibility that 54-year-olds and those over 80 (the fastest-growing segment of the population). the European Community may include Political activism, reflecting an older population, will be pragmatic and measured. Eastern Europe in the largest free trade The growth of the U.S. workforce will continue to slow, implying a more mature zone the world has yet seen. In response, and experienced workforce. New technologies and changing job conditions will other free trade zones are in the making challenge workers. Employers will increasingly offer older workers phased retire- (e.g., the North American Free Trade ment, flexible work schedules, and short time projects. More middle aged workers Treaty between Canada, the United States will start their own firms as opportunities for advancement are increasingly limited. and Mexico; Australia and New Zealand, Not only is the population maturing, but the physical infrastructure of the country and several South American countries). (roads, bridges) is aging, and will demand more and more attention in this decade. Are these signals of another momentous Government will increasingly join with business to cope with infrastructure repair eventinternational free trade with con- costs. comitant dislocations of workforces and industries? If so, what are the implica- ChangeDriver 2: The Mosaic Society. The diversity of America's population tions for continuing edinmtion and for the will become more pronounced, and, perhaps, increasingly polarized between the globalization of the curriculum? educational and economic haves and have nots. It is imperative that Americans and On the Horizon alerts members of their institutions recognize and support the value of diverse cultures within the the higher education community to driv- society. Racial and ethnic tensions will remain high. Schools will implement alterna- ing forces and potential developments in tive options like magnet schools, year-round schools, and alternative teacher certifi- the macroenvironment that constitute cation to address issues of quality, cost-effectiveness and teacher snortages. Minori- threats or opportunities to colleges and ties and women will comprise a larger proportion of the workforce. The ability to universities. We intend to live up to our manage a diverse workforce will remain important due to its increasingly multilingual title, On the Horizon, and even to our and multicultural nature. There will be greater availability of child-care benefits, ever-so-faint subtitle on the masthead, including parental leave and flexible work hours. Workers will have more benefits, Beyond the Horizon. To do so, we have but will share in bearing their costs. Finally, minorities will continue to seek greater asked a number of individuals to serve as political influence commensurate with their numbers. consulting and contributing editors some prominent in higher education, oth- ChangeDriver 3: Redefinition of Individual and Societal Roles. There will be ers promiaent within the futures field. a continuing shift of responsibilities between societal sectors and between individuals From time to time tLey will contribute and institutions. Reforms in public education will continue to emphasize the decen-

Editorial, p.2 ChangeDrivers, p.2 Page 1 3 On the Hotizon DRAFTPreview Ism.

Editorial, from p.1 ChangeDrivers, from p.1 the pattern established in the 1980s, when pieces on developments they see on (ortralization of authority to teachers andauthority and financial responsibility perhaps beyond) the horizon that could parents (school-based management) andpassed from the federal government to affect your work and future in higherchoice program& The pressure from in-states and localities. Funding inatases education. They will also speculate ondividuals for empowerment to act forarc not lilcely, given growing fiscal prob- the implications these developmentsthemselves will incre:se. (The focus onlems at all levels of government. There have far colleges and universities. Youwellness illustrates a movement from awill be continued privatization of govern- may not always agree with what theyproblem-based care system to one re-ment services, including prisons and so- say, but we hope you will agree that thequiring more personal responsibility forcial services. By the end of the 1990s, material stimulates your thinking. eating and living "right.") Governmentthem will be greater focus on individual In this preview edition we catego-support of human services will continueself-sufficiency and less reliance on insti- rize our news into social, technological, ChangeDrivers, p.5 economic, environmental, and political Contents of the Preview Issue (STEEP) sectors, and seek to include developments in these areas at the local CbangeDrivers p.1 Technological and global arenas. In subsequent edi- Editor's Column p.1 Environment p.8 tions we will add fc-T other sections. Social p.6 Economic One, Issues, is an ongoing Delphi pro- Political 119 cess focusing on issues faging higher educatica. Each edition will mlate your Editorial Board views of these issilles, their importance, James L. Monison, Editor George Keller where they are beaded, and their impli- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill University of Pennsylvania cations for colleges and universities. Bernard Glusman, Associate Editor Lowell Lueck Another, Tools, is a look at both new Pragmatix:InformationDesign Western Illinois University and proven planning tools from inside Editor,Trend Line: and outside the educational establish- Lee Y. May, Associate Editor ment. These tools will include software, Michael Marien William Ashely Editor,Future Survey new data acquisition technologies, stan- Ashley & Associates dardized instruments, and planning tech- Donna McGinty niques, such as group process and con- Kuni Beasley University of Georgia Ctr for Continuing Ed ference management innovations. An- Caltex Petroleum Corporation Editor,Lookouts other, Using Scanning Infonnation, will Peter Bishop Gerald W. McLaughlin illustrate how some colleges and uni- University of Houston at Clear Lake Virginia Polytechnical Inst. & State University versities use scanning information in academic or institutional planning. And Arnold Brown Thomas V. Mecca Weina, Edrich & Brown, Inc. fmally, Letters to the Editor, a section in Piedmont Technical College which you may respond directly to items Lu Anne Corvelli Magdalena Rood and their implications in case you dis- United Way of America Editor,AERA SIG: Futures Research and Strate agree with our assessments or wish to gic Planning Interactive Newsletter K. Patricia Cross add to them. University of California, Berkeley Frans A. VanFught You are invited to participate in all University of Twente sections of this newsletter. In fact, the E. Raymond Hackett sections on Issues, Letters , and Using Future Focus Robert Wilkinson Scanning Information depend upon your Piusburg State University James H. Heller Editor, Foresight input. We welcome items that serve as Duke University signals of change in any of the STEEP George Wilkinson sectors. Please also provide a statement Ricl,ard B. Heydinger The Wilkinson Group University of Minnesota of the implications of these signals for Editor,Happenings higher education. If we use your contri- Peter Jonas !an H. Wilson bution, we will give you credit for its Cardinal Snitch College SRI Institute submission. This has to be one of the easiest ways to get your name in print On the Horizon is publishedOctober, December, February, April, and June by the Program in that we know ! Educational Leadership, Sthool of Education, The University of North Carolinaat Chapel Hill. Material inOn the Horizonmay be duplicated as desired with appropriate attribution. For more information. hone 919966-1354. age On tho Horizon DRAFT Parriew lift/0

an international marketplace. Ideas anda year? Tuitions at public institutions are programs that will mushroom in the21stalso rising. Community collzge enroll- century will include international schol-ments will continue to soar in these times ars in residence, increased emphases onof tight pocxetbooks. foreign languages and cultural studies, Budget *eduction forces adminis- study abroad programs and other interna-trators to re-examine institutional mis- tional cultural exchanges. It will be thesions. They are reconsidering concepts unusual student who does not speak an-such as "academic excellence" and "qual- Master's other language or who has not spent atity education." Some leaders in the higher leastone semesterotuside his orhercoun-education community have indicated that Program for trY. the 20th century research university, as International we know it, will cease to exist. New paradigms for higher education are being Executives Recession forces conceived, based on the rapid changes colleges and that are occurring in our country and in universities to rethink our world.Surviving in the world of The London Business School an- higher education in the coming decades nounced a unique master's degre. pro-roles will take proactive, creative leaders who gram for senior international executives. Federal and state budget cuts arecan identify signals of change and plan Executives, sponsored by their employ-not news to anyone in these days of tough for an uncertain future. ers, will be able to keep their jobs duringeconomic times. Major universities are the two-year program that will culminatebeing forced to look at deficits in the in a master's degree in the science ofmillions of dollars over the next ,.months.Japan Colonizing U.S. Industries a 0 itI I * 1 The zaibatsu refers to cliques of in- terlocking Japanese banks and companies dating back to the late 19th century. it I Today, forming economic groups bound by interdependencies has become a way of thinking and behaving that is institutionalized in Japan, and accounts for 27% According to Anthony DePalma , Co- management. No more than 30% of the ofJapan' s assets and 25% of its sales. The lumbia University is currently laying out students will come from any one country. clannish zaibatsu mentality gives the pat- a strategy to meet deficits that in 1993 Participants will be expected to speak at tern Of Japanese invesunent in America could reach $87 milh 'n.Stanford has least two languages, and will travel to its urtique vitality and fonn, whereby initiated cuts Liz to 13% on academic and nine sessions to be held in London, Ber- banks make low-cost capital available to administrative expenses to trim its bud- lin, and other locations. According to sister companies for the long-term in- get $43 million over the next two years. program director, Chris Voss , "The aim vestment needed to create market domi- These are but two examples of institu- is to develop the international manager nation. Investment in vertically integrated tions across the U.S. that face such severe rather than the domestic manager." This enterprises is becoming a kel factor in budget problems, the effects of which multicultural learning experience grows strategic sectors of the U.S. economy out of a need for international businesswill undoubtedly reach deep into classrooms and student services.(e.g., Toyota produces 200,000 cars a expertise as national borders come down year in its Kentucky plant through a net- (New York Times, 2/3/92) in the European community and around work ofJapanese-owned suppliers). Rob- the world. (DurhamHeraidSun, 6/23/91, ert Kerns says, "This is not a conspiracy. p. B7) Implications It's the natural extension ot Japan's in- digenous form of economic growth as Significant tuition increases and cuts Japan's economy takes on new global Implications in fmancial aid are again on the horizon. proportions." To a degree Zaibatsu To be competitive in a globalHow much can the consumer of higher economy, U.S. institutions of higher edu-education take when tuition at some of cation must equip students to function in America's elite univenities tops $20,000 Economics, pA P60. 3 On the Horizon DRAFTPreview Issue Economics, from p3 America can be likened to a giant lever- of the U.S., and per capita GNP is fourtive educational programs outside the aged-buyout of parts of the U.S. economy, times ours; Japan is ti,e world's financial establishment that more specifically ad- financed by extravagant purchases ofcenter of the nevi world economy; sec-dress the needs of American industry. Japanese products. Keats states, "It is notond-tier nations are those in East Asia far-fetched to image a time when Japan's with economies closely linked to Japan; powerful Ministry of Finance would havethird-tier nations include the US and EC a direct input into U.S. economic policyas buyers of East Asian high-tech prod- and could openly influence its course... ucts; Japan owns over 40% of U.S. manu-Raising Productivity in . It's only natural for a lender whose loans facturing assets, holds 50% of U.S. bankServices are growing, to demand a say in the wayassets, controls a considerable amount of a corporation or a country's economy isbasic and applied research, and has run." On the positive side, Japanese in-amassed extensive media holdings in the Peter Drucker argues that "The single vestment is creating jobs, and JapaneseU.S. greatest challenge facing managers in the management techniques challenge many The causes of the U.S. economicdeveloped countries of the world is to U.S. fums to improve their operations.decline are system-wide managerial, fi-raise the productivity of knowledge and (Robert L. Kearns, Zaibatsu America:nancial, and political shortcomings. Spe-service workers." For the last 120 years How Japanese "Firms Are Colonizingcifically, American political institutionsproductivity in making and moving things Vital U.S. Industries,. New York: theinclude an anti-statist tradition (unlikehas expanded 45-fold. But these gains are Free Press, 1992 as reported in FutureJapan, Germany and France). Moreover, unraveling because there are too few Survey) there are long-standing adversarial rela- people employed in making and moving tions between labor/management/govern-things for their productivity to be deci- ment, an explosion in liability awards,sive. We need another productivity revo- government of transients and amateurs,lution. New technology will not by itself Implications and the democratic deadlock in formulat- penerate higher productivity. Increases ing national policy. To Dietrich, the U.S.in productivity can only come from "working smarter," (i.e., from defining To face the zaibatsu monolith, thecan meet Japan s cnallenge only by adopting an American version of Japanese in-the task to be done and from eliminating U.S. needs to increase the rate of saving, what does not need to be done). A major increase spending on R&D, improve edu-dustrial policy with a strong central sta and a top professional bureaucracy. (Wil-insurance company recently increased the cation, cut the budget deficit and redefine productivity of its claims-settlement de- national security in terms of broader eco-liam S. Dietrich, In the Shadow of the Rising Sun: the Political Roots of Ameri-partment fivefold by eliminating detailed nomic and technological security. Re- checking on all but very large claims. search universities have the responsibil-can Economic Decline. University Park, Hospital nurses spend half their time in ity foreontinuing state-of-the-art research;PA: Penn State Press, 1991, as reported in Future Survey.) paNrwork (doing what they are not paid all colleges and universities need to focus to do), and college faculty spend many on pa ?aring graduates to meet the needs hours in largely useless committee meet- of economic institutions under fire. ings. Such splintered attention is more Implications and more the norm in many organizations. To increase productivity in the ser- Japan as World Leader vice and information sectors, manage- U.S. colleges and universities facement must (1) define the task, concen- in 2015? the challenge of producing graduates whotrate work on it, and define performance; can assist American businesses to com- (2) build a partnership with service work- pete in a global economy. A shift iners so that responsibility is built into Rather than the Cold War and com-curriculum to include emphases in lan- munism, America now faces a new chal- every knowledge and service job regard- guages, non-Western history, and arealess of level; and (3) acknowledge that lenge in the form ofJapan's drive toward studies is essential to this task. Also needed global technological and economic mas- knowledge and service workers learn most is a new commitment to study abroadwhen they teach and develcp their enter- tery. According to William S. Dietrich,programs. President of Dieuich Industries, and prise into a teaching institution. (Peter F. The argument by Dietrich and othersDrucker, Harvard Business Review,69:6, holder of a Ph.D. in political science, the(e.g., Perot) implies that American col- Japanese are winning the contest. Japan Nov-Dec 1991, 69-79 as reported inFu- leges and universities must reemphasizeture Survey.) has uncontested dominance in every lead- their role in American industrial devel- ing-edge industry; its GNP is twice thatopment or they will encourage alterna- Economics, p.8 Page 4 On the Horizon DRAFT Preview Issue

ChangeDrivers, from p.2 bal economy. However, economic andstrikes over benefits offerings. The AIDS civil strife is likely to continue in theepidemic will become increasingly criti- tutions. Corporate downsizing will ac- former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe,cal. Concern about substance abuse and celerate while offering greater work re-causing the inflow of foreign investmentin resolving the issue of long-term care sponsibility, equity stakes, and reductionto remain small. Regional economic blocsprovisions will continue. Alternative of bureaucracy. The need for a flexible will increase in number and in economicforms of health care delivery, such as work force, one that can quickly adapt toimportance. International migration, bothholistic medicine and self-help groups. market changes, will be increasingly im-legal and illegal, will accelerate in tbewill continue to grow in popularity. With portant as organizations become flatter 1990s. Prosperity is increasingly depen-respect to the environment, the concern (have fewer layers of about the connec- management). Union tion between en- membership will con- ergy types and use tinue to decline. Alterna- "Quality of life versus eco- and environmental tive forms of employee nomic well-being will be a crises will increase, representation, such as with conesponding regulation and litigation, dilemma of the 1990s." demands on elected will continue to emerge. officials to focus on environmental is- ChangeDriver4: sues. Finally, the The Information-Based Economy.Tech-dent on trade with, and the economiceconomic consequences of global envi- nological advances will continue. Masswell-being of other nations. Greater in-ronmental climate change will receive customization will typify the '90s---fromternational competition for markets willincreased attention. customized bicycles to software with ob-continue. Global leadership in science ject programming. Instructional technol-and technology will determine economic ChangeDriver 8: Family and Home ogy will continue to enhance educationleadership. Redefined. There will be growing accep- as a teaching and learning aid. Concern tance of nontraditional family groups. about the scientific literacy of the popula- Changebriver 6: Economic Re-Men and women living having children tion will continue to increase. The tele-structuring.Large-scale economic trans-out of marriage, single women having phone will increasingly be used as the formation of American business broughtchildren by choice, gay and lesbian men gateway to sophi sticated communications about by global economic competition,and women having open relationships, services. Video, audio, and data trans-deregulation, rapidly changing technolo-and "friends" just living together are be- mission will increasingly be integratedgies, and diverse and changing consumering accepted by courts, employers and into a single fiber optic telephone system. tastes will continue. Large firms will ac-society in general as "families." Many The mobile communications environmentcelerate the downsizing of their manage-observers see the 1990s as a decade when will continue to develop as portablement staffs. The formation of low-skillAmericans will return to the simple life, phones, facsimile machines, beepers, sat-jobs rather than high-skill jobs will in-embracing home and family. The divorce ellites and computers make two-way, 24-crease. The number of home-based work-rate is expected to decline. Multigenera- hour accessibility anywhere in the world.ers will increase, as workplace op-urinal households and families will in- The schism between info-rich and info- tions such as satellite offices. Increasingcrease. T eisur: time will continue to grow poor will continue to grow. Changingnumbers of immigrants will be highlyin impaiance. Home is being transformed employment conditions and new tech-skilled technological and scientific work-into an office by more and more people nologies will continue to challenge workers. (28% of the U.S. workforce works at ers. The erosion of individual privacy home). will continue to grow. ChangeDriver 7: Personal and En- vironmentalHea/th. Quality of life ver- ChangeDriver 9: Rebirth of Social ChangeDriver 5:Globalization.sus economic well-being will be a di-Activism.Americans are becoming more Movement of products, capital, technol-lemma of the 1990s. We are increasinglyconcerned about social issues. The ACE- ogy, information, and ideas around theconcerned about air, water, and food qual-UCLA annual survey of entering college world will continue at a record pace. Theity. In the U.S., there is continued ques-freshmen found the highest level of in- democratization of Eastern Europe andtioning of thc quality of, and access to, thevolvement in social-action activities in Russia and free trade agreements alongnation's health-care system. Heeth-carehistory. The 1990s will be a decade of with international investments in busi-costs will accelerate the issue of costpeople wanting "community action" that ness and real estate around the world sharing between employers and employ-produces results. Racial and ethnic ten- increasingly pull all nations into the glo-ees and will increase the probability of ChangeDrivers, p.6 Page 5 On the Horizon DRAFT Preview Issue

ChangeDrivers, from p.5 sion will remain high; violent crimes are receiving a quality education. Progres- expected to increase. The poverty rate is sive campuses will declare themselves likely to increase as will the number of "gun-free" and fmd ways to restrict access of the outside community to campus homeless Americans. There will be an events. Campus counseling centers will increased recognition of the importance need additional trained staff to deal with of children's physical and mental well- victims of violent acts and to promote nessespecially in relation to the provi- self-defense education. sion of family support servicesa recognition that will become integral to pubiic education reform. Increasing Ado- Top Issue Facing the Nation lescent Violence A poll conducted by The Roper Implications Organization found that 83 percent of Funding for research in the follow- Americans think that drug use was the ing areas is likely to increase: gerontol- Violence has replaced communi-most serious problem facing America in ogy; the roots of crime (poverty, sub-cable diseases as the primary cause of1991. (What Lies Ahead, 1992) stance abuse, etc.); AIDS education, treat-death for American teens.Appalling ment and prevention; and the efficacy ofstatistics confirm an epidemic of violence that has no parallel in any otherImplications alternative forms of health-care delivery. industrialized nation of the world. Nearly In the 1980's we have witnessed Increasing attention will be given to cur- 80% of ail teenage deaths are the result ofmany colleges and universities hosting ricular programs on multicultural educa-violence--from homicides, suicides,proactive drug and alcohol awareness tion and programs to reduce racial and motor vehicle crashes, and other uninten- seminars and symposia.It is essential, ethnic tensions, as well as continuingtional injuries. And for the lust time,however, to step up prevention and edu- education programs for those wanting tofwearm death rates for both white andcation programs and to continue to inves- start their own businesses. Curriculumblack male teenagers exceed the totaltigate the use of state-of-the-art treatment committees will spend more time on re- from all natural causes. The extent of thismethods on campus. It is important for escalating national problem is evidenthigher education institutions to widen the viewing graduate and undergraduate pro- from statistics: scope of drug End alcohol prevention and grams vis-'a-vis their relevance to pre- Teenage homicidesup 300% intreatment programs to include faculty paring graduates to function in an in-the last thirty years. and staff as well as students. creasingly multicultural, multilingual, and S uicide rate for 15 to 19 year olds diverse workplace facing increasing glo-tripled to 10 per 100,000 in the past thirty bal ecoromic competition. Provosts will years. increase their efforts to train faculty in Firearm death rate for 15 to 19Middle Class "Pulling instructional technologies to enhanceyear oldsup 43% between 1984 andApart" to Rich, Poor 1988. (Emerging Issues, 1992, as reported learning, including distance education. in Happenings) They will also take advan tage of the grow- A Census Bureau report released in ing interest among business, organized mid-February, Trends in Relative Income: 1964 to 1989, provided further evidence labor, and government to form partner-Implications that the nation's middle class has shrunk If present trends continue, Ameri- ships. Advances in computer and tele- since 1969, while the proportion of Ameri- communications technologies will con-can schools and colleges and universitiescans with high and low incomes has will be increasingly unsafe. More re- tinue to offer the potential for improve- grown. sources will have to be allocated to cam- ments in administrative functions vis-'a- pus security and to crime prevention. Using for the first time a "relative vis data collection, analysis, communica- Personal security may become a major income" measure that takes family size tion, and program assessment. We mustfactor when students, especially women into consideration, the Bureau reported do all of this with little increase in gov-students, select their college. Time, that the percentage of persons with middle ernment funding. money, and energy devoted to the prob- income fell from 71.2% in 1969 to 63.3% lem of violence detracts from studentsin 1989. In '89, median income for a Page 6 On the Horizon DRAFT Preview Issue family of four was $27,153. A family of education; however, government may also four with an income below $18,576 wasimplement cost-cutting measures such as Critics, including the National Edu- considered low, whereas a familty of fourcapping tuition rates, salaries, and over-cation Association and some psychia- with an income 4.:f att least $74,304 was head and other expenses. Legislating coststrists, maintain that children who are considered high. may limit the quality, Size and variety of schooled at home suffer academically programs offered and place publicly and socially. University of Chicago child The growing income inequality_ 'ems funded institutions in a weak position to from several causes, including the in-compete with privately funded institu-psychiatrist Bennet Leventhal says the crease in female-headed families, whichtions for talented students. children do not "learn to deal with bad are much more likely to live in poverty. and sordid things" that regular students Another cause is tile increasing gap in encounter. wages, with more workers earning low wages at the same time highly skilledHome and Not Alone Home schooling growth has even workers have made income gains. spawned new businesses: rums that pro- In the late 1970s, only 10,000 or so vide workbooks, textbooks, and lesson children were being taught exclusively The Census Bureau report also com- plans. Some provide counseling for par- pared people by educational attainment.by their parents at home. Today thatents who need help with the curriculum It found the biggest increase in poverty figure has grown to over 250,000. Home and others grade students' work and keep was among people without a high school schooling has gained in popularity among education from 21.7% in '69 to 38% in '89. "Perhaps_our schools of education On the other hand, college graduates were the only educational group should...explore special pro- whose proportion of high income earners rose from 37.4% in '69 to grams for 'home instructors." 40.4% in '89. (Census Bureau 2/92)

parents who believe traditional class- records.. Implications rooms fail to teach values. The sbrinkage of the middle class In 1982 only two states had laws has meant that more children are living in Most parents have religious motives guaranteeing the rights of home school- poverty, increasing from 19.4% in '69 tofor "home schooling" their kids.But 29.1% in '89. This is largely a result of ers, now 34 states have passed such laws. home schooling appeals across religious increases in the number of female-headed (Insight, 12/2/91 as reported in Happen- and ideological boundaries, says Pat households, but the number of kids living ings) with both parents in a poverty situationLines, a Catholic University professor has also risen. As with all bad economic who researches home schooling for the news, this increases the demand for hu-U.S. Department of Education. Home man services. As the percentage of chil-schooling families come from all social Implications dren in poverty increases, the split be- classes, and almost always it is the mother Perhaps our schools of education tween those with the resources to attend who does the teaching. A desire to spendshould in conjunction with their cominu- college and those without those resources more time with their kids is a commoni ng education centers explore special pro- widens. Increasingly the United Statesreason a parent chooses home schooling,grams for "home instructors." Research moves to a two-tiered educational system says Lines. Or, she says, "antibureau-is needed on how "home schooled" stu- based on economic status and not ability. cratic views" may be behind the decision. dents do when they enter institutions of Community colleges should benefit at higher education. Security and "campus the expense of public and independent Indeed, home schooling can be con-:culture" issues are likely to be important four-year colleges. Advocates of social factors for college selection by home- justice may not tolerate such a two-tieredsidered the ultimate in school choice. It schooled students. system and will force government to in-affords parents an unparalleled flexibil- crease Federal support for low-incomeity. They determine values, curriculum, students. This move would benefit higherand even school hours. Pa90 7 On the Horizon DRAFTPreview Issue

Environmental equipment holdings. New standards forImplications buildings and appliances will be costly as In the next decade and beyond, administrators work toward compliance.higher education administrators will be %kkitd Recycling, which has begun in manychallenged with making energy usage pilot programs on campuses, will mostdecisions for their facilities based on en- likely be institutionalized, coordinated,vironmental concerns in addition to cost and regulated. On the horizon, institu-related issues. Moreover, leaders in higher tions of higher education will be hiringeducation will be held accountable for officers to oversee environmental affairs.how their decisions affect the environment and will be especially how they will U.S. Concedes preserve natural resources. Perhaps uni- Anti-Warming The Emerging Energy- versities and colleges will become the Environment Crisis testing grounds for the efficiency of and Measures the environmental soundness of renewable energy sources. University research The Gulf War highlighted the con- projects on the ozone, particulates, and nection between energy and the environ- The United States recently agreed acid deposition are expected to increase. ment. It left hundreds of oil wells burning to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions out of control, sending clouds of particu- and donate $75 million to help developing countries do the same. These concessions are part of negotiations "A less spectacular but far more toward an international agreement to p.ervasive energy-environment cri- help stall global warming, held at the United Nations in February of this sis is emerging, one that may even- year. It is hoped that the U.S. will tually make Gulf War environmental join other nations in signing an inter- damage seem minor" national agreement ih June at the United Nations Conference on Envi- ronment and Development, to be held in lates and acid rain as far as southern Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Economics, from p.4 It also Particularly, tbe U.S. agreed toChina and the Soviet Union. produced the worst oil spill in history. reduce its own emissions of greenhouse A less spectacular but far more per- gases by: vasive energy-environment crisis is 1.Improving energy efficiency Implications emerging, one that may eventually make by raising standards for buildings and Gulf War environmental damage seem appliances. American college and university ad- minor. This emerging crisis is caused by 2. Encouraging the use of vehicles ministrators will need to take the lead in the use of oil and other fossil fuels. It is that run on alternative fuels, the use of drawing their academic community into not a crisis of high energy prices, but one public transportation, and research on dialogue to address ways to work toof low prices encouraging wasteful con- electric cars. gether and to work smarter. Progressive sumption and discouraging investments 3. Supporting research on more institutions will find ways to integrate in energy efficiency and alternative en- efficient aircraft and trains, new methods principles of Total Quality Management ergy sources. The environmental conse- of energy generation, and encouraging and similar programs into their organiza- quences include deteriorating urban air industrial waste reduction and recycling. tional culture. quality, acidification of lakes and forests, crop losses, and global climate change. ImpHcations What Lies Ahead: A Decade ofDecision, Updated environmental measuresUnited Way of America, 1992, p. 89) will affect colleges and universities most directly through their physical plants and Page 8 i0 On the Horizon DRAFT Preview issue

Higher Education, the legislation willvictims, including female football play- triple the amount of federal dollars nowers and male cheerleaders, can bring suit Political being spent on undergraduate studyagainst institutions for unlimited mon- abroad, and will increase by 40 percentetary damages, rather than just call for a the funds available for graduate languagechange in biased behaviors. This deci- and area studies. Boren indicated thatsion is contrary to the Bush administra- there is a goal of having the fffst grantstion position, which contends that the law available to students by the fall of 1992.does not permit monetary damages. (The Chronicle of Higher Education, De- ( USA Today, 2127/92) cember 4, 1991, p. A55.) Implications Implications Lawsuits charging gender, race, or Ibis legislation will enable manyreligious discrimination against institu- more U.S. students to travel abroad fortions for monetary damages add a new National Program study. Moreover, impleme:iting the pro- dimension to an increasing litigious soci- Approved to Sup- gram will allow lower and middle in-ety. Colleges and universities will have come- students to participate in cross-to go beyond equal opportunity hiring port Overseas cultural, international education. Hum-and team building to be prepared to pay phrey Tonkin, president of the Universitydamages to any individual who can prove Study of Hartford and chairman of the Councila case of bias. Increased legal fees, dam- for the International Exchange of Schol-age awards, and liability insurance could ars, indicated that staggering low num-prove to be quite costly for institutions of Legislation introduced by Senatorbers of minorities have participated inhigher education in the future. David L. Boren (Dern., OK), the Nationalpast study abroad programs. Addition- Security Education Act of 1991, passedally, fewer than one percent of U.S. un- both houses of Congress late in 1991.dergraduates study in foreign countries. Enacting this bill will increase opportu-This program, then, will be a step toward Pork-barrel Science nities for undergraduates to study abroad,equipping students with the cultural and The increased moneies set aside by and will support the training of languagelinguistic expertise to compete effectively Congress for research projects at specific and area studies specialists. in the new international environment. colleges and universities have critics de- The idea for this program emergedU.S. higher education administrators andcrying "pork-barrel science". Such mon- in part from a desire to provide the federal fazulty will have the opportunity to placeeys are channeled directly to colleges and intelligence ane, security agencies with aa new focus on study abroad and will bebypass the normal competitive review robust pool of experts on critical regionsable to direct students toward new re-process.The amount has more than and languages around the world. Thesources to finance international higherdoubled from the $225 earmarked in 1988. legislation was criticized, however, foreducation. In 1991, $491 million was allocated for its suggested link between the intelli- these types of projects.Institutions in gence agencies, students, and universi- five states (West Virginia, Mascachu- ties. Boren stated that a governing board setts, PennsyNania, Louisiana, Michi- would be responsible for the program's U.S. Supreme Court gan) got 35% of the earmarked funds. independence and its integrity. He saidApplies Sex Bias Law (The Arizona Republic, 4112/92 ) that the bill included "an express prohibi- tion on the use of these students for anyto Schools intelligence-gathering activities." A surprising, unanimous, Febru- This program is the most signifi-ary 26th (1992) Supreme Court ruling Implications cant education initiative of its kind sincecould set in motion untold numbers of The public's awareness of institu- the National Defense Education Act oflaw suits by women and girls who claim tions of higher education participating in 1958. The Boren Bill authorizes a newthat they have been victims of gender bias what many would view as a questionable international education trust fund of $150in school programsincluding athletics.practice will contribute to the continued million, the income from which will fi-This decision follows the 1972, Title IX decline in the respetl of the public to- nante overseas scholarships for under-law that bars gender discrimination atwards higher education as a social insti- graduates and fellowships for graduateany education program that receives federal aid.This ruling means that bias students. According to The Chronicle of Political, p.10 Page 9 On the Horizon DRAFT Preview issue Political, from p.9 tution. Such loss of respect among the Initially, the new journal will beLooks like a music CD, but contains general public could diminish the cred-available on IBM desktop and compat-movies and animation with which users ibility and the intellectual and moral lead- ible computers, for a subscliption cost ofcan interact. ership of American higher education as a$110 a year.The availability of the DVI (Digital Video Interactive): social institution during a decade when publication on Apple Macintosh comput-With these programs, students can call up the public has few sectors of society orers is expected by 1993. Libraries will bea photograph, zoom in on an object, and social institutions to look up to.[Seeable to receive the journal on micm,fiche,pan the area to manipulate objects. Bellah, Madsen, Sullivan, Swidler, andas well. Users will be able to search the Graphing calculators help users Tipton' s The GoodSociety (1991, Knopf)data base by key words, subjects, authors, to visualize numeric formulas through for a discussion of the role and responsi-or titles. The new journal will publishgraphic readouts. bility of our social institutions, includingresearch 24 hours a day, with user avail- MBL (microcomputer-based labo- education, in addressing the problems ofability 14 hours a day, with the exceptionratory): Plugs into the back of a micro- contemporary American democracy]. of Sunday. Each time users sign on, thecomputer and transforms it into a sophis- system will alert them to material pub-ticated Laboratory. A sensory probe can lished since the last time they used themeasure temperature, light, sound, or program. (The Chronicle of Higher Edu-motion. (Agenda, Fall 1991) Technological cation , 10/2191). : . :: Implications .. . .. Implications The university of the 21st century With the increasing cost of jour-will not resemble higher education as we nals in print and the anticipated reducedhave known it to date. Potentially, there cost of electronic publications, great will be less paper, less human interaction, changes in information science for col-and an electronic information explosion. leges and universities are on the horizon.Options for off-site learning will increao The university of the future may consistas new telecommunication devices be- of much less paper, and more personalcome common place. Two-way satellite computer work stations. The library maycommunications will enable learning to be accessed electronically. Students, fac-occur between institutions in this country Publication Goes ulty, and college staffs of the future willand around the globe. be able to send and to receive information Electronic from their desk tops. As electronic communication increases, institutional boundaries break down. Interinstitutional col- A new electronic journal, Current laboration becomes the norm. Research Clinical Trials,will contain results ofprojects have tilt: potential to increase in research on new and established medical scope and in applicability due to multi- treatments for diseases. The technologyinputs from different points of view. The used to transmit the journal was devel-world moves closer to a global commu- oped by the Online Computer Librarynity concept where students and profes- Center, a partner in the venture. sors have international contacts who can Speed is one great advantage ofupdate them on global events at a electronic publishing. The elimination ofmoment's notice. the printing process and mailing time will reduce the time it takes for readers to get valuable information (a reduction of two months). Another advantage of the elec-High-Tech Happenings tronic journal is the user's capacity to Although high technology in edu- customize the format of the electronic cation has not entered the mainstream the system. For example, a reader can specifyway it has elsewhere, many experts con- what information one is interested in on a tend that it will in the next decade. The regular basis, and whether one wants tofollowing is a sampler of what is new in view tables side by side with text oreducational technology. whether to set them aside for later use. CD-I (Compact Disc-interactive):

12 VIC) riZon the environmental scanning newsletter October, 1992 for leaders in higher education Volume 1, Number 1

Editor's Column What's on the Horizon for Higher Education? WELCOME TO by George Keller VOLUME ONE, In the late 1990s higher education managemeat will be even more difficult and NUMBER ONE! intractable. Why? Because colleges and universities face not only little changes but tectonic shifts in the geology of society. The purpose of On the Horizon is to t members of the higher education I think three shifts will probably be especially consequential. I will describe the community to driving forces and poten-three briefly, point to how they might affect college life and structures, and suggest tial developments in the macroenviron- a few things education leaders might do. ment thatconstitutethreatsor opportuniees to colleges and universi-Shift No. 1: The Socio-economic Realignment ties. We do this by reporting news from the social, technol4cal, economic, en- The United States has long been regarded as a middle-class nation. But in the past vironmental, and political (STEEP) sec- 20 years, the middle-income group has been dwindling while the numbers of poor and tors, local through global levels. And we upper middle-class persons have been increasing. Education levels, family life, and suggest dc implications of these devel- values have been dividing the nation into haves and have-nots. College graduates opments or potential developments forhave been marrying other college graduates, and with hard work, self-confidence and higher education. Members of our edito- self-discipline have been building two-income families, have been having none, or rial board will write pieces on develop-one, or just two children. At the other end, young people have been dropping out of ments they see on (or perhaps beyond)high school, having children out of wedlock-27% of all U.S. babies last year were the horizon that could affect your workborn out wedlockand having difficulty finding jobs, turning to drugs and crime, and and future in higher education and will being forced to compete with low-cost labor in foreign countries.This socio- speculate on the implications these de- economic shift is creating nfw culture patterns, political alignments, and higher (and velopments have for colleges and univer- lower) education demands. sities. You may not always agree with what they say, but we hope you will agree The shift is also polarizing higher education, as some institutions serve the that their articles stimulate your thinking. ambitious, well-off, and educationally advanced while others, particularly commu- (And what better way to begin than withnity colleges, tend to serve the wary, poor, and educationally undegxepared. Within George Keller's piece in the next col- many institutions three discrete faculties have come into being: one for remedial or umn!) developmental studies, one for traditional higher education, and one for adult and continuing education. Only one of these faculties is open to tenure and allowed a seat We want to be of service to you. Ason the faculty senate. Half of all college math courses are now remedial, and fewer you will note in ,this issue, we have athan 40% of U.S. high school students are in the college preparatory track. But the section called Tools, written by our man- most prestigious colleges continue to be in high demand and conduct research. aging editor, Bernard Glassman, an information consultant with expertise in Education leaders will need to think more socio-ecologically in the years software for both DOS and Macintcsh ahead, decide on what constituencies they will serve, and how they will restructum to computers. In subsequent issues we willeducate a less homogeneous youth popLation. For example, four years of under- add other sections. The Issues section graduate life may be reserved for less qualified students while three yeses becomes a will focus on critical issues facing higher standard for the eager and better prepared. Remedial programs and adult continuing education. Using Scanning Information education programs may run 12 months a year, as many already do, with only will illustrate how some colleges and Uaditkcal programs continuing in the leisurely eight-month calendar.

Editor/al, p.2 Keller, p.2

13 On the Horizon October, 1992 Volume 1, Number 1

Editorial, from 0.1 universities use scanning information in The communications advances willenrollments. Since the USA also takes in academic or institutional planning. Bookcontinue to permit more internationalmore immigrants annually than all other Reviews will bring to our attention thoseexchanges. And since United States uni-countries combined, studentand fac- new books that will assist us anticipateversities are perceived as educationallyultyrepresentation will diversify fur- the future. Letters to the Editor will offerstrong, technologically advanced, andther. intellectually free, U.S. higher education you the opportunity to respond directly to Keller, p.5 items or to their implications in case youshould enjoy swelling foreign student disagree with our assessments or wish to ...Contents athe OctOber Issue add to them. Lead Article . P-1 Technological...... _...p.10 You are invited to participate in all Editor's Column P.1 ..... sections of this newsletter. In fazt, the Tools...... _p.6 Economic sections on Issues, Letters. and Using Social p.4 Political Scanning Information depend upon your input. We welcome items that serve as signals of change in any of the STEEP Editorial Board_ sectors. Please al.3.1 provide a statement James L Morrison, Editor Peter Jonas of the implications of these signals for University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Cardinal Suitdi College higher education. If we use your contribution, we will give you credit for its Bernard Glassman, Managing Editor George Keller PragmatixinformationDesign University of Pansylvania submission. Lee Y. May, Associate Editor Lowell Lueck A final note. We are thinking of two Western Illinois University William Ashley Mar, Trot d Lines additional services we may offer. One Ashley & Associates would be a site license to coff and dis- Miduiel Marko Ktmi Beasley Editor, Future Survey tribute On the Horizon to yourcolleagues Calks Petroleum Corporatica as a regular function of your office. The DOOM McGinty other is to publish periodically our scan- Peter Bishop University of Georgia Ctr for Continuing Ed ning database in electronic form in a text University of Houstcn at Clear Lake Editor, Lookouts or bibliographic data base format for both Wayne L Boucher Gerald W. McInughlin DOS and Macintosh computers. This Benton International Virginia Polytechnical Inst. & State University growing data base consists of abstracts of Arnold Brown Thomas V. Mecca books and articles and their implications Weiner, Edrich & Brown, lnc. Piedmont Technical College for colleges an.1 universities. Nem let 1.11 Anne Comelli Mark Meredith me know if you would be interested in United Way of America University of Colotado-Boulder either service. (Phone, mail and Internet information is on the masthead.) K. Patricia Cross Magdakna Rood University of California. Berkeley Editor, AFRA SIG: Futures Research and Strategic Nanning Interactive Newts:ter anis de Winter-Hebrtin Keller, from p.1 H+E Auociases LTD (England) Firms A. Van Vught University of Twente (The Netherlands) Shift No. 2: Technology George S. Dodge Office, Chief Army Reserve Robert Wilkinson and Internationalism Pittsburg State University E. Raymond Hackett Editor, Foresight College Information Systems Communications technology will George Waldman increasingly allow students and fazulty James H. Heller The Wilkinson Group Duke University to talk to each other across the country Editor, Happenings and with persons in most other countries. Richsrd B. Heydinger Ian H. Wm Portable phones, electronic mail, fac- University of Mimics& SRI Institute simile machines, computers with mo- dems, satellite transmission, interactive On the Horizon is pablishedOctobts, December, February, April, and June by the Institutefor video, and other devices mean the place- Academic and Profeesioes1Develicpuslet,School of Education, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. For more information, write James 1- Morrison, Editor, ORthe Horizon, C113503 bound campus is less and less central. Peabody Hall, Univenity of North Carolina, atapel Hill, NC 27599 (phone 919 966-1334; Internet Distance learning should increase. [email protected]) Pipe 2 14 On the Horizon October, 1992 Volume 1. Number 1

I mpl i cations employee pension programs, health, and environment. [Shribman, D. (1991, Sep- The debate fiver using the peace divi- tember 3). More states, taking a leaf from dend exists because there are so manyFederal book, pass on their spending pro- competing &Actives (reduce taxes, re- grams to localities. The Wall Street Jour- duce deficit, rebuild the nation's infra-nal, p. A20.] structine,attend tO social and educational needs, repair the environment, andjump- Some states have shifted to counties Turning start the economy). However, higheredu-responsibilities forprograms such as spe- swords into cation has an opporthnity to generatecial education, clean water, health and integrative/collaborative solutions withwelfare services,corrections, and landfill plowshares governmental agencies andcorporations,reclamation. One result of this is that the and therefore provide a service to society443 largest counties in the US have short- "Defense conversion" once meantas well as obtain additional funding sup-falls that averap $8.3 million. Accord- turning missile plants into factories, butpo ing to a recent survey by the Nations: this year it has taken on a much broader Association of Counties, the dilemma is meaning thatencompasses an overall planGovernment Controls that counties have typically far less lee- for restructuring the economy and the way than eller states or Washington to nation's defense. Proposals range fromat Local Levels enrich their coffers. Some officials are broad spending packages targeted at cm- petitioning their state legislatures to ap- atingnewjobs and assisting hard-hit com- For a decade, the federal govern-prove new fees for county services. [Cri- munities and workers, to trimming taxesment has been shifting responsibility fxsis in the counties. (1991, September 24). and opposing calls for deeper Pentagonspending programs nun Washington toThe Christian Science Monitor.p.20i cuts. According to Senator Phil Gramm,the states. But now that the states are what we're experiencing is the beginningencountering budget crunches of their A wave of new taxes and tax increases, the third since the 1930s, is developing in states, counties, and cities to . finance social services. This can be men in tine states considering income taxes O 1 III a a who have traditionally opposed the income tax (Connecticut, Tennessee, and a . Texas). In contrast to the 1960s and 70., states, counties, cities, and towns, rather II a a tlan the federal government are now th- a lb 0, sorbing mom of the rising costs of public health care, education, prisons, wastedis- posal, and Mherpublic woiks. ThisMUM- fer has produced what University of Pennsylvaniaeconomia, Alan Auerbach, andothers calranew federalism." [Uchi- Mlle, L. (1991, March 25). States and ofanewdebate that will continue throughown, they me passing the buck to coun-cities are pushing hard for higher taxes. the next decade: What do we do with all ties and local municipalities. The greatestThe New York Times. p. A I, D6.] the money we used to spend on defense?budget-shifting experiment occurred in The House's fiscal 1993 budget resolu-California, where Governor Pete WilsonImplications tion, approved March 5, includes spend-and the Democratic legislature shifted ing up to $6.6 billion for conversionmore than $2 billion in welfare, mental Shifting the responsibility for social projectssuchas community development,health and medical pogroms from theservice programs to local government worker retraining and research aid, andstate to the comities. State maidates nowaggravates the segregation of die °haves" more spending on housing and transpor-account for 60 cents out of every countyand the liave-nots." Avoiding an undue tation [Fesoler, P. (1992). Hill strugglesbudget dollar in New York State. Lasttax burden, individuals with incomes to assist victims of post-cold war budgetyear,at least 14 states imposed new man-leave areas with a higher than normal cuts. Ce, 50(10), 542-545.] dates in local government, mostly in Beenomks, p.4 Page 3 15 On the Horizon October, 1992 Volume 1, Number 1

&mimics, from p.3 parentage of "have-nots." The end result Major changes in the ethnic compo-the Asian and PI segments are forecast to is the 'haves" living with the "haves" andsition of the American population haverise to 3.5% of the population, or 9.5 sharing a bw tax liability, while the "have-reflected immigration patterns. Thus, themillion persons, by ',"'" 00. By 2010, they nots" live together with minimal accesspercentage of whites rose from 81% in iU number 12 million, or 4.5% of the to social programs. Two solutions are1790 to 90% in 1930 and the Africantotal population. possible. One is to bmaden the tax baseAmerican percentage dropped from 19% by shifting the spendinr responsibilityto 10% during the same period. African Americans are expected to back to the state level. The second is to reach 35.1 million by 2000 and represent establish `economic development zones" The thirty year period from 1960 to13.1% of the nation's population. By within thesedisadvantaged areas to stimu- 1990, however, reflected the most pro-2010 they will number 38.8 million or late entrepreneurial activity and, thereby,named changes in ethnic composition 13.7% of the total population. American generate income. An important factor for(based or major racial groups and thoseIndians (including Eskimos and Aleuts), the success of the "economic develop-of Hispanic origin) in all the censusesnumbering almost 2 million, made up ment zones" is technical training of thesefrom 1790-1990. The total white percent-less than 1% of the U.S. population in disadvantaged workers. Thus the eco-age in this period dropped from 89% to 1990. [What lies ahead: A decade of nomic development zone concept pro-84%; whites of non-Hispanic origindecision. (1992). Alexandria, Virginia: vides new opportunities for Communitydropped from 85% in 1960 to 715% inUnited Way Strategic Institute, pp. 12- colleges and technical school recruitment1990. Conelatively. minority gaps all.13. and Gibson, C. (1992). The contribu- and program development increased their propottions. The Hispaniction of immigration to the growth and population percentage rose from 3.5 toethnic diversity of the American popula- The overwhelming majotity of fi-9.0. During the same period, the Asiantion. In Proceedings of the American nancial support for higher educationand Pacific Islander population rose fromPhilosophical Society, 2, 157-174.] comes from state and local taxes and0.6% to 2.9%. These figures reflect a from tuition. As the piessure on state andlarge scale immigration pattern fiomLatinImplications local tax dollars increases, so will theAmerica and Asia. Furthetmore, the premise on higher educafion to justify itsgrowth rate of the Hispanic and major These figures and projections give share of those dollars. non-white racial groups was higher thansubstance to the notion that we are in- that of the total population. The Africancreasingly a multicultural society. Many American population during the 1960-90programs started in the past few decades spanalsoincreased,from 10.5% to 12.1%,have been aimed at inczeasing the num- due to a higher growth rate than that of theber of minorities in colleges and univer- Spcial white population, though lower than thesities. The number of minority students rate of the other minority groups. increased dramatically in the 1970s, but

re 2. slowed significantly in the 1980s, with ..owsgmh By 2000, Hispanics are expected toAsian-Americans as the only gmup show- increase to 9.4% of the total population,ing continued rapid growth. Minorities in when they will graduate school number25 .2 1004 Ithotie Slossart U.S. Ilepubliso have shown a dol- million.By 00% man:: decline in 2010, it is ex- 70% growth.Accading The Cultural pected that the GO% to Altbach and SO% numba of His- Lommey (TheRa- Mosaic panic Ameri- 40% 20% dal Crisisin

cans will reach 20% American Higher Immigration isasignificantcontrilm- 40million, thus 10% Education, Albany tar to population growth and ethnic di- slightly out- OK NY: State Univer- versity in America. The national census Mr. ma. numbering Af- sity of New York revealed that about 127 million, or 51% r ic an Press, 1991), there of 199(1s population is attrilutable to the ABRAMS in the U.S. population. Asianshas been resistance by depsrtments and Ihet immigration of 48 million persons and Pacific Islanders (PI) are the fastestprogramstoaffirmativeacdonguidelines, during the period 17904990. About 98 growing minority in the U.S. with aand a serious problem of a pool of racial million of these are attributable to the 108.5% increasebetween 1980and 1990.minority candidata for many fields. Af- immigration (128 miflion,primmily fromOnly 2.9% of the U.S. population mid Europe, during the period 1830-1930. numbering around 7.3 million inTo; Social, p.5 NW 4 On the Horizon October, 1992 Volume 1, Number 1

Keller, from p.2 Social, from p.4 Communications technology and in-Colleges will be pressed to reduce therican Americans and Hispanics remain tersatkmalism will force new structureshuge number of courses they teach, in-seriously under-represented at the most of administrative leadership (cemimmi-crease teaching loads for professors whoprestigious colleges and universities. In cations and computer czars and interna-do little research, reduce administrativeeffect, although the US. will continue to tional ovations vice presidents) and ofoversight, charge for student services,be more ethnically diverse, the pool of programming. It means that higher edu-and introduce other economies. The mi-minority Ph.Ds will continue to decrease. cation will become more capital-inten-croeconomics of higher education insti- Altbach and Lomoiey point out that the bulk of student activism is related to racial issues (either South Africa and its racial policies, or on-campus racial inci- "Colleges will be pressed to reduce dents), and that race remains one of the the...umber of courses they most volatile and divisive issues in US. higher education. If racism is to be tack- teach, increase teaching loads for led successfully, the initiative mist come professors whodc;little researN, from tbe top in addressing mh issues an enrollments,faculty recruitment,curricu- reduce administrative oversight, lum, minority student alienation and at- charge for/student services ... trition, and faculty-student relations. There is another challenge here educational leaders must take advantage of diversity to increase competitive sive and more connected with other col-cations will be a new area of study. Ad- ministrations will need toresiructure theirstrength in a changing world. They can leges, and that pedagogy in the class- do this by incorporating multicultural rooms will change appreciably. operations to trim costs, and intensify fund-raising and locate new revenueconcerns in the curricula, and by actively sources. recruiting student, faculty and staff that Shift No. 3: Finances and reptesent this divasity. And they mustbe Productivity. 1FrankLevey,Do1krsandDreants: Theprepared to handle the controversy en- Changing American Income Distributiongendered by attempts to diversify the In the past dozen years higher educa- (New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1987); existing cuniculum. tion costs have been rising about 20% "Paying for College: A New Look at Family Income Treads," College Bawd Review,152 faster than the Consumer Price Index, While it is important to ackkess (Summer 1989), 18-21, 32-33; Kevin Phil- ticulunl issues through revising the cur- resuldng inexuaordinary tuition inFeaseslips, The Politics of Rich mod Poor (New riculum and actively recruiting minority and relentless capital campaigns. Yrs& Random House, 1990). freulty, staff, and students, it is also im- Meanwhile, U.S. family real income 2See, for example, Ronald Inglehart, portant to address some of tbe subtler has scarcely increased since the 1970's, Culture Shift in Advanced Mdastrial Societyaspects of the problem. Valuing differ- and the ability of states and tbe fedeial (Plincetorx PrincetonUniversityPress,1990). ence does not simply arise hem expos= government to increase aid to higher edu- todiversemodelsandcurricuhmkgrows cation to meet escalating college costs 'Arthur Hauptman, "Why Are Collegeslowly as a resuk of associating and inter- have been declining. America's agingCosts Rising?" College Board Review. 152acting with people with different per- societythe elderly now consume =-(Summer 199), 11-17,32; Michael McPher- spectives. Esher education must find son, Mottos Schapiro, and Gordon Winston, ways of facilitating such opportimilies third of all tax dollarsand increased"Recent Trends in U.S. Higher Educatir that might not normally occur, given tbe international economic competition will Costs and Prices,"AEA Picers and Proceed- limit further government support for uni-ings, 79 (May 1989), 23-257; Chain Clot-natural tendency of people to emaciate veres. felder, Ronald Eirenburg, Malcolm Getz, andwith what is familiar and easily under- John Siegfried, Economic Challenges togood. The combination of runaway costsHigher Ethwaion (Chicago: Univasity of of institutions and the decreasing abilityChicago Press, 1991). Our Aging Society of families and governmeuts to finance them will compel a new emphasis on The number of eklerly in the productivity on campus and clones in US.continuestoincreasein 12.6% the delivery system of higher lexeing. Social, p.6

7 On the Horizon Ocicber, 1992 Volume 1, Number 1

calve drops slowly as it approaches June.labor force against the same statistic for Tools rises precipitously toward September,seven other nations, the stock of foreign- then plummets into December. The naiveowned capital in the U.S. since 1869 or inference is that there must be some sortthe stock of U.S.-owned capital abroad Bernard Glassman of connection among the three. Thesince the same year, the data are there. equally naive inference is that there are ThisTegularcohunn willreviewcom-not only lies, damned lies and statistics, For the U.S., data sets are, as might puler software, hardware and services ofbut that even further along the spectnunbe expected, the most varied, and we interest to the environmental scaimer. Itsof mendacity there are wfisnal graph-grouped into such categories as Agricul- opinions will be as subjective and atbi-ics. That can be true, but it need not be. ture, Business, Construction, Environ- tiatyas those of any busy user, and it will trent, Fmancial Markets, Government, e iste from the perspective of the per- How nice it would be if our statisti-International Trade, Labor, National In- son who needs results cnickly. I willcal graphics software could issue a warn-come, Population, Science and Technol- provide infonnation about manufactur-ing like "Although these curves areogy, and Social Indicators, the last of es and publishers, (who are always will-superficially similar, the viewe. shouldwhich includes education statistics. As ingto send you reprints of sophisticated,not only doubt OW one phenomenon isyou might expect, the preponderance we patient. indepth teclinicalreviewsbycom-the cause of the other, but should alsofrom federal sources. puler jimkies,) along with pricing infor-refrain from concluding that they have mation. If special discounts are availableanything to do with one another whatso- The manual is as clear as one can for educators, !II include them. ever." That would truly be a graph withhope for, given the vagaries of Lotus 1-2- added dimensim . 3 and the DOS system with which it was CoWorks Time Serles designed to work. There is a nice mixtute Library Although CoWorits' Time Seriesof bow-to with why-you-might-want-to, Library issims no such caveats, its manualand a rather interesting treatise on the Price: Commimial. $395 for soft- is disanninglycandidaboutthesoftware'smathematics of time series. (Them is the potential for abuse. "WARNING," saysto-be-expected use of "data" as though ware and basic data library with 3 the page on moving correlation, "Cone-du word were incapable of being plural, quattedy data updates lation is only an estimate of the math-but if that iS a SaiOUS problem for you, ematical coincithnce of change. It is notyou may as well stop reading manvals.) Academic, $295 for software and a measure of cause and effect. To makeIncluded is a complete 1 1" by IT' map of basic data Nbrary with 3 quarterly cause and effect judgments, you mustall the layers of menus, sub-menus, sub- data updates understand the raw data and considersub-menus, etc., etc. that you get to use to whether a mathematical coincidence ofaccomplish various tasks. Nearly evay Additional years of updates are $195 change can be interpreted as a cause andlayer of menus offers access to on-screen and $145 respectively each year. effect relationship." help with the currently Pyailable menu Numerous special optional data sets options. If you are still confusod, you can CoWorks is an electronic publisher,always call the company. I have spoken are planned. specializing in finding, compiling, edit-with the CoWorks staff on several occa- nom: CoWorics Corp. 1020 Cen- ing albJ publishing machine-readable in-sions, in the capacity of user rather than formation. Their first venture, The Timereviewer. They have been supremely pa- tral, Kansas City, MO 64105 (816) Series Library, is not a stand-alone pro-tient and polite. There is no cost for 421 1548 gram, but a large number of time series,technical support. along with a masterly Lotus 1:1-3 wort- Needs: IBM or compatible, Lotus 1- sheet that allows you to step systemati- Is the software easy to use? If you we 2-3 2.01 or higher (or Ouattro Pro) cally through the creation of graphs fromaccustomed to the generally paint-by- and 5MB of hard drive space. Best the data suppliedby CoWorks orby othanumbers feel of the more popular 'user- Mated configuration is version 3 of friendly' praWindows programs on the acemnovundnes' Srdepartmehas y°111;k4busi, sch°°.t(k.IBM and compatibles (WordPerfect, Lotus 1-2-3 Or Quern* Pro 4.0. May geography, development hor otherHarvard Graphics and the like), the an- nal on the Macintosh (see below.) collectors of numbffs. The progtamswer is yes. It's a lot easier than Vying to comes with Foundation Pack, a generatedo the same thing withLotus 1-23slaw. Edward Tufie writes in The Visualsupply of time wries (BO in all) rangingIf you are shady facile with Excel for Display o/Quandtative information,". .from a cowry and a half of GNP toWindows, with CA Cricket Graph, or if statistical paphics, just Re staisticalannual figures for high school arid col-you have been using almost any softwae calculations, are only as good as whatlege graduations. Some measures we an-at all on a Macintosh, the CoNivits pro- goes into them. An ill-specified or pre-nual, others we warier*. Each seriesgram msy feel frustratingly chmky and model or a my data set cannotincludes some descriptive information,awkward. However, if you ate a Madn- C:11 ri:Tedby a pwW (or by a calcula-along with definitions, collection meth-tosh user, or if you have the good luck to tioa), ao maser how clever or fancy. Aods, and a brief bibliography. All seriesbe using Quattro Pro 4.0 (QP 4.0) under silly theory mew a silly paphic. are at national, global/regional or worldWindows or 0S12, you may still be in illutrales Ids point well a time saleslevels; if you want state figures, Co-luck. As of this writing, the folb at Co- graph tracia41929's New York and Lon-Works an develop them for you on aWorks hadn't tested their program with doe slock pnces, along with solar midi:-custom basis. But if you want to track tioa (invested) for the same year. Eachannual chimes in the size of the Nigerian Took p 7 Page 1 0 On the Horizon Ocbber. 1992 Volume 1. Number 1

Tools, from p4 Lotus 1-2-3 for the Mac. I'll try to test itdramatic increase in individuals over 65[Shabecoff, P. (1990, June 29). Senator myself, and will let you know in our nextwill result in part because these individu-urges military resources be turned to en- issue. (I'll ask our consulting Quatro Proals are more active and healthy. Retiredvironmental battle. The New Y ork Times, guru to do the same with QP 4.0.) individuals possess a wealth of knowl-pp. Al, Al2.] edge and experience that could be a valu- Time SeriesLibrary produces graphsable resource to an institution of higherImplications that are about as far as possible from thelearning,especiallywhentheystayabteast flashy three-dimensional, shaded-back-in their field and/or expand into other ground wonders that so many spread-disciplines. Their presence on campus Does Nunn's proposal agnal a fun- sheets and slidemaking programs canreinfaces the concept of life-long learn-danental shift in the funding of national create, a limitation that many !graphinging. They are capable of providing adefense research? Universities receiving purists (including, no doubt, Tufte him-unique, stabilizing perspective, often national defense research funding should self) will applaud on grounds that themissing in undergraduate classrooms.broaden their perspective to identify so- flashier the graph the more misleading itToo, they often have extensive personalcial benefits of their research beyond can be. So, if you use the CoWorks sys-networks that may be utilized to supportnational defense. Such activity may stimu- tem and jaws drcp when their owners seeone or more aspects of the academiclate the establishment of mw coalitions, your graphs, it will be caused by thecommunity, particularly in view of theirboth within and outside the university, to brilliance of your observations and not byincreasing political clout. The retired areidentify and expand the applicability of the connect-the-dots manner in whichone segment of the community where a those observations are illustrated. How-small investment in time and energy by ever, even if you never use the worksheet,the institution to develop speciP.1 pro- the data may be worth the $300 to $400grams could reap a bountiful harvest of Does Nunn's pro- 'Nifty. You can use them with other SUMO"- spreadsheet and database programs. It all posal signal a depends on just how national and global your perspective needs to be, and NOV/ fundamental shift comfatable you are with other software. in the funding of national dpfense Social, from p 7 of the population were 65 years ot age or research? older, and the remainder of the decade shows only modest increases over the 1990 levels. The following decade, again, shows only moderate incicase in these national defenae research Proactive in- figures, raising to about 13% in 2010, up stitutions will provide forums to facili- only 1 or 24 from projections for the year tate the establishment of new coalitions 2(X). However, it is estimated that the in these areas. number of people 65 and over will in-The Environment crease dramatically, from between 13 toand National Se- The Scanner's Book of 14% in 2010, to 17 or 18% in 2020. By Quotations, Number 1: 2030 that number will have increased tocurity nearly 23%, a 5 or 6% increase in only 10 years. In 1990 the life expectancy of When a thing is new, males and females was 713 and 78.7 Senator Sam Nunn, chairman of the years, respectively. These are expecadSenate Armed Services Committee, has people say, "It is not to increase to 72.5 and 80.0 years forproposed a shift in defense and intelli- males and females respectively by 2030,gence resources to address environmen- true." Later, when its and to 74.7 and 81.3 years by the yeartal concerns in the creation of a &magic 2080. It is thought that the aging ofEnvironmental Research Progran. One truth becomes obvi- America will have a siignificant impactpurpose of this proposal is to retain re- ous, they say,"It is on America's world standing and leader-search md technological capacity for the ship, caning for a prompt recoweptual-military establishment at a time when not important." Fi- intiOn of America's strategic interestsmilitary budgets at shrinking. The ma- and domestic priorities. [Fosler, S. R.jor purpose, according to Nam, how- nally, when its impor- (1992, April 9). Dent4raphic changeever, is envirmunental. While many tance cannot be de- and the American future. USA Today, p.traditional security problems remain for 11A.] the U.S., a sew threat to our national nied, they say, "Any- security is the destruction of the mitre- meat. Nunn believes that many resources way, it is not new." Implications can be used for military and environmental purposes simultaneously. Aircraft and The term "elderly° may imply re-ships on military =mums, forexarnple, William James tired but it should not mean feeble. Thecould also collect environmental datiL eonelbutiont. The Pepe 7 ij On 1he Horizon October, 1992 Vakne 1, Number 1 111

keep these efforts from becoming cap-else's concern. But with the advent of tured by the standard Eurocratic culturehuman rights into internadonal law, even of technique." Riarsh, David (1992,the notion of "domestic affairs" is up for March 11). It's Time for the US. tograbs. U.N. supervision of national elec- weigh in on a global scale. The Washing-tions in Haiti and Nicaragua would have ton Post, pF3J been unthinkable only a few years back and the delivery of food and medicines to National holders are becoming in-Kurdish Iraqis over Baghdad's objec- U.S. the Sole creasingly irrelevant. "Economic, tech-tions was precedent setting. The tendency nological and environmental trends havetoward the pooling of sovereignty, how- World Power? punched gaping holes in the once solidever, is not without its problematic fea- walls dividing country from country.tures. But despite resistance to the idea, It may be a mistake to think of thePowers that were until recently the solethe reality is that "as borders become U.S. as the sole remaining world powerprerogative of national governments aremore and more porous, security is seen to now that the Soviet Union has dissolved. rest more and more Perhaps the most - on international, significant politi- Economic, technological an rather than national, cal development conditions. It is also in the latter twee- environmental trends have clear that no ability t ie t h-c en tury punched gaping holes in theonce to project power workl scene is the beyond borders or growing powerof ,s'olid walls dividing countryfrom to enforce order international within them can pro- agencies. Such country. tect a regime that agencies as the cannot manage its International shifting to multinational bodies and to economy and natural resources." MonetaryFund,theUnitedNationspeace-businesses, individuals and innumerable [Mathews, J. (1991, August 22). Giving keeping forces, the Bank for Interna-zitizen's groups ci all kinds." In otherway to global concerns. The Washington tional Settlements and thewords, the kinds of technological devel-Post, p. A23.] 106-member-nation General Agreementopments (e.g., telecommunications) and on Tariffs and Trade, have exercised in-crises (the environment) that have re-Implications creasing influence and authority in adju-placed the threat of communism have dicating international disputes andmade the idea of national, political sover- integrating the nations of the world into American society faces a "new wodd eignty a problematic conception, at leastorder" with many different challenges. an infant world monetary system. Mostas it has been undertood in the past. The recendy, and maybe of equal importance, Mathews points out the growing influ- integration of the global economy hasence of internationaT 4gencies in keeping is the recentmeming of the Earth Summit resulted in multinational fmns that areorder. Lester Thurow points out in Head in Rio de Janeiro, which called for dis-virtuallyklentical,whethertheybeAmeri- cussion on "practically every question to Head: The Coming Economic Battle can,FrenchorJapanese. Moteover, envi-Among.fapan,Europe,andAmerica(NY: that has been mind about the influence ofrorunental trends, both regional and humanidod on the environment." What Milian Morrow, 1992), that the contest global, share similar charicteristicsfor world supremacy has shifted from a may be emerging is a new, tentative, but"They all pose potentially serious losses highly promising, world federalism. A military contest to an economic one. III to national eccsomies" and are immunethis conk% no we country will lower global trade agency is negotiating awayto solution by one or a few countries" protectionism among faun =M. A world over another. Rather tbe action will be exactly because they reflect global, nottranmational in the form of trading blocs economic coordinating mechanism isnational, questions. syncluonixing a series of fast-moving (Europe, the Pacific Rim, and North America). American institutions must reforms, from Mexico to Moscow. Further evidence of the "global vil- Thoughanchglobalconociousnessisquite rode= their role within this new ceder. lage" can be seen in how the U.N. isThis impetus puts moo press= on col- in vogne, perhaps the most interestingcoming to make distinctions between and promising contribution el the Bush kges and universities to redefine maim domestic and international affairs. Theselw and programs to prepare students to Admisistration JO the wowing iaberde-was a time not Wag ago when bow a peadeace of nations is the aisempt 'eto nation treated its own citizens was so we Pelkkal,pJ Page II

20 On the Horizon October, 1992 Volume 1, Number 1

Political, from p.8 function in a global .iociety, rather than atheir development and at the same timeponents. Most legal and political experts purely national one. establish new partnerships and coalitionsbelieve that the states have no power to to the mutual benefit of both parties. limit congressional tenns. [Jost, K. (1992). Congress Questions New initiatives planned. CQ Researcher, Foreign Aid (The New Congressional Tenure 2(1), 18-19.] Isolationism?) Limited to Two Implications Consecutive Terms? The subject of U. S. foreign eid has Congressional privilege and power become one of the most avoided topics in The idea of term limits for Congiessis based on seniority. In the long tenn, the current American pthtical scene. Themembers has gained momentum in thestates that unilaterally restrict congres- "take-care-of-Amerie2-first" rhetoric re-past three years, and is presently drawingsional ten= legislate themselves into a veals the creeping isolationism that iswidespread attention. The popularity ofweaker position of power relative to those corning increasingly to control U. S. for-term limits stems from America's grow-states that do not restrict congressional eign policy. Washington is not hie ly toing distrust of its politicians and fromtenure. Unless all states participate in take advantage of the opportunity fornumerous complaints about abuses bytenn-limit legislation (e.g., through con- exercising world leadership that lies wait-Congressional members. Advocates ofstitutional reform), it will not be in the ing as a result of an end to the Cold War,term limits faze the challenge of Con-interest of any state to continue the term even though it is calculated that aboutgress. It would take a constitutionallimitation process. This, this movement $100 million in foreign aid can be redi-amendment to pass the idea by a twois likely to die without much legislative rected from current recipients to the newthirds majority of the House and the Sen-impact. republics of the former Soviet Union. ate. Supporters got creative however, and argued that an individual state had the However, this movement as well as Despite the large-sounding totals,right to restrict the tenure of its owntic grassroots support for the candidacy America devotes only about 03% of itscongressional leaders without a constitu-of Ross Perot me signals of general dis- gross national product on foreign aid, astional amendment. In November of 1990,satisfaction with the democratic process opposed so 2% to 3% in the days of theColorado became the rust state to vote onand the level of representation afforded Marshall Plan after World War H. Right such a proposal, which it passed over-to individual citivas. While the term now, the prospects for reevaluating thewhelmingly. That vote, followed by thelimitation and Perot movements may be U.S. policy of giving to foreign countries approval of term limits in California andunsuccessful, their value as signals of are not good. A new mood of isolation-Oklahoma, has sparked similar move-social dissatisfaction should not be lost. ism (some might say its pressing domes-ments in more than admen states. A 1991In semis of direct implications for higher tic needs) is behind these policypoll indicated 70% approval of term lim-education, the public paception of the judgments. [Seib G. (1992, January 6).its among Democrats, Republicans, androle of colleges and tmiversities in the U.S. foreign aid, Unpopular at home, isacross racial groups and diverse incomecommunity is blely to have increasingly slow to adjust to a changing world. Walland educational levels. [Jost, K. (1992).important impact on the stalky of institu- Street Journal, p. All.] Term limits: The issues. CQ Researcher,tions to secure funding for their opera- 2(1), 3-8.] tions. Seasitivity to individual issues, Implications particularly to issues important to the Term limit suppalers hope to getdisadvantaged(e.g.culturaldivasity,and Problems in formulating a compre-initiatives to restrict state legislative andviolence to women), will demonstrate hensive foreign aid program in light ofcongressional tenure on the ballots in athat the institution is "in ume with the unwecedented opportunity to facilitate dozen a more states in 1992 and 1994. Atneeds of the community." the development of democracy aroundthe present time, however, only 23 states the world indicates an American crisis ofallow initiatives. The only national groupGovernment Subsidies leadership. Economic problems appearestablished to oppose term4imis was ato Civilian Commercial to be nudging us toward a new isolation-skeletal clearinghouse and speakers bu- ism. College and universities have a rolereau called "Americans for Ballot Free-R & D Decline in pteparing leadees with a global per-dom: Let the People Decide." The gmup spective for an increasingly politicallywas established in May of 1991, but failed R & D tax credits have been ap- andeconomically ceenecied world. Tinyto make a go of it and disbanded inproved by Congress on a year-to-year also have an opportunity to assist theseOctober. Theconstitutional issue remains emerging eastern European countries in&tinder question mark for tam-limit pro- Political, p.12 Page On the Horizon Octtber, 1992 Volume 1, Number 1

Gore argues that we have the toolsAvailabilityof Information Technological necessary for digesting and using this : informationsupercomputersbut be- While many are excited by the pos- : :: . cause we lack the communications linkssibilities fa the proliferation of informa- : required to make them truly useful, theytion made possible by new technology reflectanmealizedcapecity.Goreclaimscoming from the communications indus- that the primary problem is that "ourtry, tough questions remain unanswered. current network of telephone lines willPerhaps the most pressing is "Who will not catry the elaborate graphic imagespoy for it?" The vision of a bold future, that make supatomputers usefuL" Ga.:.where "we'll all have a computer on our is calling for"infamation superhighways. desk, and a phone in our shoe" (a tip of the Growth of Infor- . anationwide network of fiber-optichat to Maxwell Smart, the bumbfmg su- 'data highways' to link supercomputersper-spy of the TV show "Get Smart"), or mation and Com- .and digital libraries." Whereas informa-a possible future in which computer ter- tion lines currently transmit about 56,000minals and televisions will become "tele- munications bits of information per second, Gore en-computers" thatcan process videoimages visions a communication netwock capableand send them wound the world on fiber- We now have mote infonnation than of carrying several million bits of infor-optic cable with threads as thin as human we know what to do with. Like the oldmation per second. The importance ofhair, may be near at hand. "But," says agricultural policy of the United States,such a network is seen when it is realizedFCC Commissioner Shenie P. Marshall, which left grain rotting in silos whilethat we are in the initial stages of "a truly"who will pay for it? How will the infirm people starved, the United States' infor- global civilizationbased on shared knowl-and the poor pay for it?" The possible mation policy is allowing "warehousesedge in the form of digital code. Theproliferation of information on techno- of unused information" to sit idly by ability of nations to compete will dependlogically advanced communications sys- while critical applications for that infor-on their ability to handle knowledge intems raises questions that spill over into mation go unmet. For example, duringthis form? [Gore A. (1990, July 15).complex public policy issues. If funding the last 18 years the Landsat satellite has Networking the future: we need a na-is not available to subsidize public access taken a complete picture of the earth'stional 'superhighway' for compter in-to this bold future, one may need to ob- surface every two weeks. The informa-tonation. The Washington Post, p.serve, as did Commissioner Ervin S. tion in those photos would be invaluable B3.] Duggan, that the "democratization of the to agriculturists, environmentalists, ge- Fax machine may not be desirable or ologists, educators, city planners andImplications necessary? Duggan went further to ob- businesses. "Yet, 95% of those images serve that with the increased usage of have never been seen by human eyes. Skill in critical thinking is paramountcable television service andpay-per-view They are left to rot in their digital silos in as we face information overload result-programming, the potential of television Sion Falls, SD." ing from the rapid gtowth of informationas a teacher and as a source of informa- and technical sophistication. Not onlytion is liberating only to those whose The prOblem, according to Al Gore, must we teach students how to access allaccess is possible because they can afford is that while we have automated the pro- forms of informatica, but also how to useto pay by the minute. [Skrzydri, C. (1991, cess of gathering information, we have information. Although many profess=May 2). FCC fast-forwards agenda, not found a correlative means of making will argue that they teach critical thinkingprobes technology of future. The Wash- it available. 'Me amount of data now skills in their courses, many would assertington Post, pp. B10, B12.] availablesomewhereto answer al-that it is difficult to teach these skills in most any question imaginable is stagger- lecture classes. Furthermore, studentsImplications ing. But the sheer volume we havemust be taught the necessary techniques collected on almost every issue nowfor filtering, manillas, and absorbing threatens our ability to provide a defmi- New technologies involving tele- the desired intimation from the "over-communications, satellite communica- live answer on anything. We're forced toload" that they accessskills such as deal not only with information, but also tions, interactive TV and videodisks thoseofferedby Richard Saul Wurman inptovide opportunities for transforming with "cdormation": data existing out-Information Anxiety (Doubleday, 1989) side= conscious awareness which nev- the design and implementation of instruc- and by Michael J. McCarthy in Master-tion that can be carried far beyond the asking keeps us slightly off balanceing the Wormation Age (Archer, 1991). became we know it exists, even if we dos% know where or how to use k. Technological, p11 Pap 10 22 On the Horizon October, 1992 Volume 1, Number 1

Technological, from p.10 campus. The problem is one of resources. own customized textbooks by dipping key to a compensation system for the era First, until the technologies are widelyinto electronic databases. At Dow Jonesin which copying is easy but [in which] used, their coSts will remain high. Early & Co. executives speak of futuristic newsconsumers need help in using the com- adopters will pay through the nose forservices that might enable investors toplex and overwhelming volumes of intheir use. Second, what about human re-call up live videos of corporate eventsformation." [Miller, M. W. (1989, June sources? Are professors on your campusonto their screens and immediately buy7). Vast changes loom as computers di- prepared to use these new technologies in or sell stocks over the same computers.gest words, sound images. TheWall Street designing their instruction? Do you haveDevelopments like these will no doubtJournal, pp. Al, A20.] a center for professional developmentmake it possible for increasing numbers capable of assisting them to use the newof people to do their work at home. City and state-sanctioned telecom- techrologies? Third, what about students? muting programs are grabbing attention Although the costs of computers have But tine are drawbacks. The enor-on the West coast, but some workers come down dramatically, they remainmous "electronic networks," that areacross the country have been doing it for beyond the range of many students. Does growing into a"computational membraneyears. Jack Nines, who coined the term your financial aid office consider the costcovering vast areas of the earth" may"telecommuting" years ago, suggests the of a personal computer when deriving yield great amounts of information thatplusses of telecommuting are increased rmancial aid packages? are just passing users by. "We may actu- productiv ity, rechleedi empiuyev, rurnovor, ally be pushing the physical limits on thelower office space needs, reduced real Electronic ability of people to process information,"estate costs, baler management, organi- said Robert Jacobson, an information-zational flexibility, quicker response Breakthrough Allows policy consultant to the California statetimes, and better employee morale. Den- Home Based Workforce assembly. Once the information that isnis Chamot, associate direetec with the "out there" is made easily accessible, theAFL-CIO, is morecautious and sem litde Developments in computer technol-impact on an information-age wakforceneed for telecommuting. He sees most of ogy could result in vast sociarchanges,is certain, though nearly unpredictable.its success with small, self-selected pro- not least of which would be their impact For example, copyright laws limit thegrams. It is too early to draw conclusions on the communications workforce. Theaccess and usability of certain informa-about how the average worker will ben- "conversion of all manner of words, im-tion, but current computer systems dem-efit. [Telecommuting can unclog urban ages and sounds into computer data.onstrate that this information can beoffices, freeways (1939, August). Com-. streams of ones and zeros" that can becopied and utilized in such a way as tomunication News, From the Congres- fragmented,reformatted, manipulated andavoid the usual compensation for copy-sional Institute for the Future.] sent anywhere, has liberated us from pa-righted material. Of course, copyright per, celluloid and vinyl. But it is alsolaws may be altered so that compensation Implications forcing a tremendous cultural and in- For higher ...... du stri altumult. The "electronic networks," education, tele- "We are in the are growing into a "coiiputational communicating middle of a true means the poten- revolution in me- membrane covering va t areas of tial for mote stu- diathe change the earth." dents and from chemical pro- expandedpro- cesses to electronic grams.While it ones," said Michael Schulhof, vice chair-is conceived in different terms, but thiscan be argued that telecommunicating man of Sony Corp.'s U.S. unit. still leaves consumers, the possible home- should not and will mot replace the cam- based workforce, at a disadvantage inpus living experience, telecommunicat- The long-term results of this "revo- terms of utilizing the almost unlimitedins may provide significant professional lution" are far from clear, but what isamount of information that is availableeducation opportunities aaapoorly served clear, is that it is forcing media compa-through the growing electronic networks.portion of the population (i.e., those indi- nies to confront a radical change: cus-The late MIT communications scholarviduals currently employed seeking to tomers now can organize and presentMid de Sob Pool suggested a possibleimprove their professional opportunities information in ways once limited to pub- way that both copyright compensationwithout leaving their jobs). Far too often Ushers. The Times Mirror Co., for ex-and information overload could be dealtpeople reach a "dead end" in their careers ample, is exploring ways that make itwith in a single service: "Organized ser-and mek new employment opponvnities. possible for professors to create their vice functions for which users pay are the Technoloitical, n.12 Page 11 23 On the Horizon October, 1992 Volume 1, Number 1

Political, from p.9 Technological, from p.11 basis since 1986, when the break wasjealousy and conflict of interest. Institu-Unfortunately, new opportunities often reduced to 20% from 25%. Right now tions of higher education that are admin-require the acquisition of new Skills. Many these credits are a good subsidy to largeistratively flexible enough to taketimes these new skills cannot be obtained companies, but are a detriment to smalladvantage of these opportunities and tobecause people cannot afford to leave companies trying to compete. [Walters,address theseissuesmay reap a dispro-their jobs or move to the location where D.K.H. (1992, January 30). Many com- portionate amount of benefit in this diffi- these new skills are taught. Piofessional panies are wary of R & D plan.The Loscult fiscal environment. training programs offeiod through tele- Angeles Times, p.D3.] communications are one mechanism to National Public Service train skills and yet maintain economic Of President Bush's promised $76 status. These programs are likely to be billion for R & D, half of that figure goes In 1990, under the new National andwal receivedbecause they can simply be into defense-related research and devel-Community Service Act, Congress cre-viewed as an investment into a new ca- opment. With the exception of NASA,ated a commission to test the waters for aleer. most federal civilian R & D expendituresnational service program. Seven state and are comparatively flat. [Schrage. M.local projects were chosen as pilot pro- Parker Rossman inThe Emerging grams and would str 20 million Worldwide Electronic University: Infor- thation Age Global Higher Education presidential puffery.The Los Angelesfederal funding. One models the (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992) Times, p.D3.] idea of a youth corps and has been adopted in 65 towns, cities, and counties. Americadescribes signs of an emerging global The Bush administration is encour-is still very far, however, from a man-classroom, whereby students in one coun- aging companies to enter into coopera-dated policy of public service. Althoughtry take courses in another via computer tiveprojectswithgovernmentthe idea resembles conscription, it is ex-conferences and/or TV, a practice facili- laboratories. For example, last fall whenpected to gain more attention as the elec-tated by electronically available catalogs Vivid Technologies Inc. was trying totion draws near, particularly within theof courses, electronic access to research develop an x-ray system for detectingDemocratic platform. [Reinventing thelibraries, and on-line electronic book- stores. Fwulty members meet with stu- bombs in airports, it got assistance from wheel. (1992, June 13).The Economist, the Federal Aviation Administration inp. 29.] dents from around the world in Atlantic City, NJ. In addition to licensing "hyperspace," and use virtual reality class- technology from research already done, rooms and electronic, multimedia text- the labs have been developing "collabo-Implications books. We are indeed approaching the tative research and development agree- end of an era in which colleges can be A national public service program ments" (CRADAs).Creativepartnerships bounded by a wall with a narrow gate, such as these will be necessary in anhas been viewed by many educators aswhen all students are kept in one place at economy of shrinking budgets and cutanother competitor for scarce resourcesone time (sharing finite resointes and Wks. [Trumbull, M. (1992, February(entering students). However, the con-faculty), and when students stop their cept of national service provides an op- 18). Rich Federal research trove open to education when they leave campus. Mel portunity to propose integrated education the public.The Christian Science Moni- Elfm (1992, 28 September. U.S. new and service models whereby a portion of tor,p. 7.] 1993 college guide,U.S.NewsandWorld the required curriculum consists of labo-Report, 100-112) descdbing the college ratory work or field research that pro- Implications of tomorrow, maintains that America's vides social service as well as educational colleges and universities are standing on experience. Students enrolling in suchthe edge of a "breathtaking transforma- The constraint on federal dollars forcurricular programs, therefore, could ful- research and development forces compa- tion." Those institutions anticipating this fill the national public service require-transformation will be the most success- nies into collaborative relationships. Thisment while receiving a stipend. provides institutions of higher learning ful in the new era. with an unprecedented opportunity to interact with industry for the mutual benefit ofboth organizations. However, these interactions call for dynamic administrative leadership witlfm the university to address issues specify to university-industry collaboration such as ethics,patest/ intellectual ownership rights, academic

Page 12 tlorizop the environmental scanning newsletter for leaders in higher education .9Limmimunammouni

From the Editor A New Social Charter for Higher A number of readers have written to ask about our publisher, The Instiane for Academic Education? and Professional Leadership at the University of North Carolina. The Institute, approved by the UNC Board of Governors this semester, isIan Wilzon, SRI International charged with offering professional develop- Today we are living through the most significant political and ment seminars to leaders in higher education.economic restructuring that the modern world has seen. The condition is This fall, for example. it offered two seminars inpervasive, tumultuous, and continuing. As a result, for the rest of the a professional development series for commu-1990s (and beyond). institutions of all sortsgovernment, unions, cor- nity college presidents in North Carolinaporations, health care, the United Way, andyes--colleges and univer- "Developing and Managing the Executivesitieswill be adapting to new roles, new responsibilities, and new Team" and "Trustees as a Greater Resource forrelationships. the College." This winter, the !nstitute will offer two more seminars in this series"Ap- Four formative forces are reshaping the roles and responsibilities of plying TQM Concepts," and "Issues Manage-these institutions and, most importantly, the relationships among them: ment: A Decision Support System for Managing 'The "power shift" a cluster of disparate yet related political Uncertainy." trends, including the shift in geopolitical relationships (with the disinte- The Institute is a part of the Program ingration of the former Soviet Union and the rise &japan and the European Educational Leadership, UNC School of Edu-Community); the worldwide movement toward "democracy" (variously cation, which also sponsors professional devel-defined); a growing preference for market systems; selective deregula- opment seminars. This coming July (9-13), thetion (in economic rather than social arenas); and privatization of previ- Program will cosponsor the third global changeously public institutions and services; seminar, "Surviving and Prospering in a World 'Globalization the increasingly global flows and networks of of Change" with King Alfred's College Win-trade, production, finance, technology and, most importantly, informa- chester and H+E Associates, Ltd. If you wouldtion; like to be put on the mailing list for announce- ments of forthccciing seminars by either the 'Economic restructuring the wrenching changes in the nature, Program or the Institute, please send me a note.location and structure of economic activity, in virtually every nation, industry and company, that drastically affect the levels of economic In the February issue, we will begin togrowth and so the availability of resources for individual and social focus on critical issues affecting higher educa-purposes; tion. Two such issues currently occupy much of the space in our local papersmulticulturalism 'Transform in g technologies the cluster of computer. communica- (you may have read Of the tension of establish-tions and related technologies that are transforming the industrial, mass- ing a free-standing black cultural center on ourproduction economy into an information-rich, value-added economy. campus) and tenure (three professccs who have In addition to their direct effect on higher education, these forces won teaching awards were denied tenure thiswill also change social values and so the public' s expectations -4 what the year). This is designed to be an interactivenew role of a college or university should be. Given the current level of newsletter. Please send me your nominationsnational concern over U.S. competitiveness and employment (both the for the "critical issues" list. number and type of jobs available), it is difficult to avoid the conclusion Finally, a number of people have writtenthat "a new charter of social expectations" for higher education will be me concerning site licenses to copy and distrib-written around its role in assisting the Tnited States its citizens and its ute On the Horizon to their staffs or to institu-institutions adapt to the requirements of the changing global economy. tional planning committee members. This is an Implications of this new chatter for a changed role for colleges and excellent use of the newsletter, please write or niversities are noted in the figure below, and include: phone me if you are interested in such an ar- 'Focusing on the cultural and technical capabilities needed by both rangement. business and individual job-seekers in an age of globalization, restructuring and rapid technological change; Continues, p3, co1.1

26" On the Horizon Vol. 1 Number 2 December 1992

CONTENTS SOCIAL SOCIAL 3 Teenage Pregnancies TECHNOLOGICAL 4 ECONOMIC 6 Birthrates for teenagers have ENVIRONMENTAL 8 been on the increase since 1987. Some 8 POLITICAL attribute the increase to a dramatic rise TOOLS 10 in births to teenagers ; since 1986. His- 12 BOOKS panic teenagers have made up more than Editorial Board a third of the increase. Others say that the James L Morrison, Editor teen birthrate growth is caused by teen- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill agers becoming sexually active at ear- James H. Heller, Associate Editor George Keller lier ages. More than 1 million teenage Duke University University of Pennsylvania girlsone in every ten under the age of Bernard Glassman. Managing Editor Lowell Lueck 20become pregnant in the U.S. annu- and Tools columnist Western Illinois University ally, aad teens have 25% of all abor- PmgmatixInfonnationDesign Editor, Trend Lints tions. The birthrate for white teens has Lim Lupica William Ashley increased slightly, by 6%. from 1980 to Ashley & Associates Early Signals 1989. [Shapiro, LP. (1992,July 13). The Walter A. Albers, Jr. Michael Marien Albers Systems Inc. Editor, Future Survey teen pregnancy boom. U.S.News & Kuni Beasley Donna McGinty World Report.p. 38.] Tyndale Theological Seminary University of Georgia Ctr for Cont. Ed Peter Bishop Editor, Lookouts One Amerizan child in five is University of Houston at Clear Lake Gerald W. Md.aughlin born out of wedlock, 40% to teenagers. Wayne I. Boucher Virginia Polytechnical Inst. & State U. [What lies ahead: A decade of decision. Benton International Thomas V. Mecca (1992). Alexandria, Virginia: United Arnold Brown Pie&nont Technical College Way Strategic Institute, p. 18.] Weiner. Edda & Brown, Inc. Mark Meredith IA Anne Corvelli University of Colorado-Boulder United Way of America Magdalena Rood saimpliCations K. Patricia Cross Editor, AERA Futures Research and University of Califoro a, Berkeley Strategic Planning Interactive Newsletter Teenage pregnancy continues to im- Chris de Winter-Hebron Frans A. Van Vught pact. not only on the young woman's H+E Associates Ltd. (England) University of TV/ClIte (The Netherlands) prospects and needs, but also on the George S. Dodge Robert Wilkinson institutions charged with continuing her Office, Chief Army Reserve Pittsburgh State University education. Teachers, administrators, and E. Raymond Hackett Editor, Foresight College Information Systems George Wilk:mson other school staff members need to be Ridrard B. Heydinger The Wilkinson Group trained to understand and deal with the University of Minnesota Editor, Happenings unique problems associated with this Peter Jonas Ian H. Wilson social phenomenon. At a minimum, col- Cardinal Snitch College SRI Institute leges and universities have a mle to play On the Hodson is published October, December, February, April. and June by the both in training these personnel and in Institute for Academic and Professional Development, School of Education, The Univer- providing consultative services. Some sity of North Carolina at Chapel HilL For mom information, write James L. Morrison. will begin looking into ways to make Editor, On the Horizon. CB3500 Peabody HAIL University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 (phone 919 966-1354; Internet [email protected]) themselves more accessible tosingle parents of school-age children. A New Demographic "... boundaries between Ballgame the academic and business The 1990-2010 period represents a rapidly changing demographic situation warlds will be blurred..." for institutional mission, clientele, fac- Ian Wilson ulty, access, and equity. One-half of the population growth in the 80s was in three states: Florida, Continues. o3. co1.2 2 On the Horizon VoL 1 Number 2 December 1992 Wilson, from p.1 Social, from p.2 Shifting the balance of educational programs evenTexas, and California. further toward continuing education as "lifelong learning" becomes a necessity, not just a slogan, to deal with obsolesc- Non-traditional households grew twice as fast in the 80s ing knowledge and skills; as the traditional married couple households. Youth in the ''Boomlet" age group will increas- 1/..111.101.1101 iirlurny New Economy Key Roles for Colleges and Usliversitief, i ingly be at risk of school failure in large part from Slchrmoving Repid technicel *Applied research. the stresses of poverty in single parent homesand technology theme tethnology transfer may not be candidates for higher education. Dittinct technical fields -Merging tc.chnical Multidisciplinary fields programs and centers Students in higher education are becoming much more ethnically diverse, while the faculty are not. -Focus on domestic Focus on global Knowiedge of now mantels markets cultures, Itinguages Over the 1990-2010 period, states will become Human resources as a Human resources as a Industry-reeponsive more unlike each other in terms of demographic factor of production competitive edge educational system characteristics. -Slow-changing skid -Rapidly thanging skill -Lifelong teerning. requirements requirements xtension programs The aging of populations in heartland states Employment growth in 'Employment growth In 'Support for may lead to an erosion of public support for higher Tonune SOW new and wad firms entrerxeneurship and education in those states. commercialization State colleges, independent colleges, and pro- Working with government and corporations to developprietary and vocational institutions are most at risk during the the "centers of technological excellence" that a competitive90s. United States will need. adillpHeations The concern, and indeed outrage, arising against such a forecast is predictable. One can already hear the cries of "sell Harold Hodgkinson offered these suggestions for meet- out," "prostitution of academic principles." and "corporateing the needs reflected by demographic changes. corruption." Indeed, the boundaries between the academic Focus on institutions demonstrating special skills in and business worlds will be blurred; there will be increased working with poor and minority students; traffic and exchange between these two worlds. As Jay Ogilvy of Global Business Network has written, "This could Send very clear signals that encourage minority mean an end to tenure in the academ lc world, or the beginning participation in higher education; of sabbaticals in the business world." Revise the current basic delivery mechanism to However, this future need not entail higher educationmake the system more functional for a diverse student body; becoming a glorified "trade school" or a wholly owned subsidiary of corporate America. There is far more to this Enlarge the pool of talented faculty, administrative and board leaders from minority and poverty backgrounds.

.15 [Hodgkinson, H. (1991, March). Testimony to US Con- * gress on the Reauthorization of the Higher Education Act.] . . - The Life-style Odyssey

There are six overall principles that will sk-ve the lifestyles of the 1990's: 1) Fragmentation: on many levels, as mission than upgrading the technical skills of displaced minorities increase, and consumers splinter into many groups machinists. To my mind, this linkage to economic develop-(yet there will be a yearning for cohesion, which may lead to ment and social adjustment can be translated into a far-a national political consensus); 2) Bifurcation: as the middle reaching, energizing and honorable vision, much as meclass shrinks and people move up- or down-scale; 3) Opti- socialization of immigrants was for public education earliermism/Self-Confidence: Americans remain generally satis- in this century. But it will require foresight, imagination,fied and self-confident about their personal situation, but effort and extensive cooperation with government and busi-confidence in the country has declined; 4) A National Life- ness. To paraphrase Edmund B urke, the only thing needed forcyc le: just as individuals go through a mid-life crisis, America the triumik of the worst is for good men (and institutions) notis entering a pre-crisis time and a more mature nature will to strive for the best. emerge, with the global community more a part of our lives Ian Wilson is a senior management consultant at SRI Interna- and with the environment as a priority; 5) Need for Control: tional. He recently published a reporttitled Rewriting the Americans will seek to control their lives or at least get a Corporate Social Charter. feeling of control; stress reduction will become a watchword and inform household activities; guarding individual rights 3 On the Horizon Vol. 1 Number 2 December 1992 against Big Brother will be a consistent theme; 6) Recession/increased 48% in the last five years but cost-cutting may keep Money: income growth will be flat through the early 1990s,demand down; 9) Halth and Fitness: the rhetoric of wellness and taxes will continue to rise; personal bankruptcies-now atwill be taken more seriously, as Americans diagnose their a record high-will increase 10% annually, notably in theown ailments, exercise more, eat better, focus on stress Sunbelt. reduction. andexplore alternative medicine. [Miller, E. (1992, January). The Lifestyle Odyssey: The Facts Behind the So- Microtrends include: cial, Personal, and Cultural Changes Touching Each of Our 1) Demographics: the divorce rate will continue its slowLives. Naperville, 11.: Sourcebooks Trade.] decrease; the trend toward later marriage is peaking; the number of single adults will continue to climb from itsgirImplications present all-time high; traditional households of related persons will be surpassed by non-traditional households about These trends signal important changes for higher educa- 2010; 2) Home: people are fixing up their current homestion. The gradual reduction of the middle class will mean that instead of moving into bigger ones (almost half of currentfewer students will be able to afford a college or university homeowners plan to renovate in the next few years); there areeducation. Decisions as to whether or not to pursue a univer- now more cat-owning households (46%) thandog-owning sity degree, and if so, which university to attend, will be based (40%), a change from 21% cats/35% dogs 35 years ago; 3)to a much greater extent on cost/benefit issues. As a result. Money: we live in colleges and univer- a time of fman- sities will be under cial caution (the much greater pres- average house- sure to defme their .Colleges and universities will hold debt is 94% ". programs in terms of its after-tax in- be under much greater pressure of successful outcome); a growing comes and of the number of people to define their programs in terms quality of support are stuck just of successful outcomes and of within each pro- above the poverty gram. Proactive line and not able the quality of support within each colleges and univer- to gain ground; 4) program." sities will begin to Shopping: a shift establish mecha- from "shop till msms to solicit and you drop"to address the con- "shop when you have to" due to scarce time and money and cerns of the current student body to improve the quality of less conspicuous consumption; second-hand goods will risetheir educational experience. In an environment of cost in stature, and wastefulness will be frowned upon; men arereduc tion and quality improvement, colleges and universities doing slightly more shopping than in the past and will do will be forced to limit the number of programs they support. more in the 1990s; as many as 20% of ail regional shopping Indeed, adminisuators face the hard decision of closing some malls in the US will close by 2000; over half of today'sprograms. The upside. however, is that as some institutions retailers will be out of business by 2000 as Americans shopclose programs, others may view this as an opportunity to more in catalogs aid discount stores: 5) Food: more fast food.develop this niche. and faster food, healthy eating, pleasure eating, and environmental concern (purer products with less packaging): away- from-home food spending will rise in the 1990s from 38% to 41% of the food dollar; 6) Media: Americans watch TV 28 hours a week, up slightly from 25 hours in 1950. but the overall opinion of TV has been turning downward since the 1960s: as many as 90% of US households may have a VCR by 1995: there will be more advertising cluuer and decreasin g ad recall by viewers; 7) Work: career-obsession is on the wane, as a middle-aging nation seeks to balance work and family; anxiety about job security is increasing: fewer than one-fourth of US workers feel secure in the long-term prospects of keeping their present job; 8) Travel: the shortageof time for pleasure travel derives from extensive work hours, the hectic pace of life, and the increasing difficulty for two- income couples to coordinate vacations; Americans are taking shorter vacations closer to home: business travel has 4 On the Horizon Vol. 1 Number 2 December 1992 purchasing new equipment. TECHNOLOGICAL If CIM is as successful as it is hoped it will be (its use by other companies such as Apple Computer Inc., and Federal- Computer Integrated Mogul Corp. suggest that it will indeed be successful), two birds may be killed with one stone: While some industries are Manufacturing being revived, computers are finding new applications, further contributing to their proliferation. [Yoder, S. K. (1990, Until the robotics industry undergoes significant techno-June 4). Putting it all together. The Wall Street Journal, pp. logical advance, industry must look elsewhere, to reviveR 24, R25.] sagging productivity. New uses for current computer systems may be the answer. "The secret to competitive manufactur-111111pliCations ing, the new scenario goes, lies less in heavy automation and more in using computets to gather information from the The application of CIM and "just-in-time" management factory floor and swap it with information from every otherin industry has implications for curriclum development. aspect of a businessfrom the sales department to productEducators who scan the microenvironment to identify new engineering to the shipping docks." trends and developments in the social, technological, eco- This at least, is how some companies are streamlining nomic, environmental and technological sectors for curricu- their business processes so as to decrease the time required lar opportunities will put their instititution ahead of the game. from the production to the delivery of products. And it seemsThis requires having the tools, the training, and the incentive to be working. It's called computer-integrated manufactur-to transform these opportunities into curricular programs and ing, or CIM, and needs only the right equipment and softwarematerials (such as just-in-time textbooks, syllabi, and guest to be put in place. speakerson hand, via conference call, or by satellite). CIM integrates functions that traditionally have beenAlternative Energy Sources separate, seeking "to streamline with quality control and just- in-time manufacturing, and to give every machine and em- A study released by the American Gas Assn. suggests ployee the ability to talk with each other and 'watch' a product that increased research and development of natural gas and as it moves through the entire corporate pipeline." Motorola,alternative sources and a freer energy market could cut the for example, has been us1-12 a computer-integrated process nation's carbon dioxide emissions by 10% by the year 2000. since 1988. A Motorola sales representative takes an order,The study advocates dropping state and local free market say for 150 black Bravo pagers to be delivered on May 17,"barriers" such as those requiring emission scrubbers for types the order into a laptop computer, specifies the uniqueelectric power plants, or mandatory use of coal. Instead, it code that causes each pager to beep and requests delivery inrelies on higher efficiency appliances and doubling the use of two weeks. "The order zips over phone lines to a mainframerenewable sourcesincluding solar, geothermal, biomass computer in a new factory in Boynton Beach, Fla. Theand windwhile increasing use of natural gas hy 40% by computer automatically schedules the 150 pagers for produc-2010. This would reduce oil imports and increase domestic tion May 15, orders the proper components, and, on the dayemployment in both the oil and gas industry and in energy after assembly, informs the shipping docks to express-mailconservarion and renewable energy. The study estimates the them to Pacific Telesys Group (the company that ordered ther creation of from 200,000 to 400,000 new jobs in renewable pagers) in California." energies and energy conservation alone. Persons in the coal industry, however, say that it would merely shift jobs to other By connecting each aspect of the manufacturing process sectors. [Parrish, M. (1992, May 1). Energy coalition pushes via computer links, costly time delays and lack of communi- an 'alternative future'. The Los Angeles Times, p. D2.] cation between sales representatives and production engineers (often a problem when sales persons are not aware of The Danish government is pushing ahead with one of their company's production potential and product capabili- Europe's most ambitious alternative energy projectsa pro- ties) can be brought to a minimum. This is possible becausegram that would make Denmark the first country in the world the machines and computers found in the factory use the sameto use wind power as a significant contributor to its national language as the computers used in sales and shipping. Theelectricity grid. At the present, only California has installed result for Motorola is that the Boynton Beach facility can greater wind-power capacity. Denmark is in the fmal stages produce the Bravo pocket pager at the same cost as theof an initial expansion that will triple its wind power by the Singapore plant, which has cheaper labor and is not inte-end of the next year to cover nearly 10% of its electricity grated, and "deliver, over-night, custom-built pagers that requirements through wind energy. Denmark and California used to take nearly six weeks to supply." An additional together produce 90% of the globe's wind-generated electric- benefit is that Motorola was able to use "mostly the same ity. [Marshall, T. (1992, April 7). Danes no blowhards on machines that populate the company's older factory floors," alternative energy. The Los Angeles Times, p. H4.1 and so did not incur great expense in developing and/or 5

23 On the Horizon Vol. 1 Number 2 December 1992 According to Greg Rueger, general manager of nescientists that fusion power will be generating virtually nation's largest investor-owned utility, Pacific Gas and Elec-limitless amounts of cheap, pollution-free electricity in the tric Co.. the newest generation of wind-power ttubines al-21st century. Unlike fission reactors, which split atoms to ready can match fossil fuel facilities on price. Ruegerestimatesproduce energy, the Torus reactor pushed atoms of deuterium that the newest, third-generation windmills. if mass pro-and tritium together to generate a temperature of 200 million duced, could make electricity at a lifetime cost of 5.5 to 6.5degrees C. In future years. scientists will face challenges of cents per kilowatt-hour in good wind areas. That comparesdesigning, building, and paying for a working fusion reactor, with 7 cents an hour for a new gas/oil fued plant in the PG &as well as containing impurities. International cooperative E service area. Solar generation still costs around 10 cents per efforts are now in the works to face future research chal- kilowatt hour, although that too is dropping. A recent projectlenges. If the necessary money can be mobilized (approxi- may have produced equipment that lowers the cost to 8 cents.mately 3 billion pounds), the reactorcouldbecome operational [Dalin, J. (1991, March 14). The Christian Science Monitor,in the 21st century. [MacLeod, A (1991, November 20), p. 26.] Fusion power future looks bright. The Christian Science Edison and Texas Instruments recently announced aMonitor, p. 12.] solar technology breakthrough. A relatively low-cost solar photovoltaic cell has the potential to provide one-third of anlarImpliCations average home's electricity using a 10-by-10 foot rooftop Developing low-cost, pollution-free energy constitutes panel. [Bryson, J. E. (1991,. May 19) Ch ange is in the wind a major challenge to research agencies, including research and the sun. The Los Angeles Times, p. M5.] universities. When these efforts pay off, resources tradition- A biomass plant, operated by Delano Energy Co., takesally directed to energy could be redirected to social issues, 700 tons of prunings, fruit pits and waste wood a day fromhealth care and education. nearby orchards and burns them in a state-of-the-art furnace that emits fewer emissions than an old-fashioned wood-Delphi Forecast of Information burning stove. The resulting heat is used to make steam that drives turbines. Enough electricity is generated to serve theTechnology needs of about 30,000 California households a day. The Information technologies will grow far more sophisti- Delano power plant produces energy at a cost of roughly 8cated in the next few years, but social acceptance of some cents per kilowatt hour. making it close-to competitive withinformation services is likely to lag behind. The most impor- coal (about 5 to 7 cents per kilowatt-hour) and natural gas (5.5 tant technologies recently selected by science and technology cents). But the biomass plant was only able to get financing reporters include: in the first place because state incentives encouraged utilities to buy power from such plants at rates above market levels. miniature machines More dollars are needed for help in construction of such electrical superconductors plants. Biomass plants are among several so-called renew- animal and crop engineering able energy technologies that proponents argue hold the tailor-made materials greatest promise for replacing the fossil fuels and imported fiber-optic networks oil this country uses to generate power. [Lee, P. (1991, March wind and battery power 26). Interest in alternative fuel sources heats up in U.S.. The Los Angeles Times, pp. Al, A8.] high-defmition TV more complex/valuable computer chips A new $700 million Federal fund has authorized a six- year demonstration program to explore magnet power for object-oriented programming trains. This type of train would have no locomotive but would [New York Times News Service, (1992, February 3)] be lofted above its track by a magnetic cushion and propelled by a magnetic wave. These trains would travel at a very highwalmplications speed, with high efficiency and with little or no wear. Dem- Two functions of higher education are to advance knowl- onstration trains in Germany have established a speed record edge and to disseminate knowledge. Colleges and universi- of 273 miles an hour over a test track. Planners in Florida hope to build a 14 mile maglev (magnetic levitation) train routeties could influence soc ial acceptance of information services from Orlando airport to Disney World. The downside is thatby not only utilizing the technologies in classes, but via this Florida track is estimated to cost $500 million. Thisservice roles in partnership with business and governmental technology is not cheap; that is the present fly in the ointment.agencies where these technologies are used. [E7owne. M.W. (1992, Match 3). New funds fuel magnet power for trains. The New York Times, pp. CI , Cll.] A discovery by nuclear scientists at the Joint European Torus (JET) laboratory at Culham. England has convinced 6 30 On the Horizon Vol. 1 Number 2 December 1992 many as 2.5 million defense-related jobs could be gone by 2001." Government programs can ease the adjustment for ECONOMIC workers. veterans Of the armed forces, and communities, and can offer help to defense companies that want to convert to Productivity more commercial production. [US Congress Office of Tech- Thomas E. Hall, Miami University (Ohio), sums up thenology Assessment (1992, February). After Me Cold War: U.S. economic problem as the loss of its competitive edgeLiving with Lower Defense Spending. Washington: USGPO] during the past 20 years. The question now dominating From WWII to 1988, the US spent $9.6 trillion on the political debate is why and what can be done about it. Hallmilitary (1982 dollars)-about $1.5 trillion more than the says the problem is rooted in the slow growth of laborestimated value of all US tangible assets except for land. productivity since 1973. Military spending has hobbled civilian public investment. As Labor productivity in the U.S. grew at an average rate ofa nation, we must begin charting the scope of conversion and 2.4 percent a year between 1960 and 1973. From 1973 todefining markets for alternative civilian products. But con- 1989, the rate was only 0.8 percent per year. Productivityversion is not as simple as it was after WWII, when the US had growth in Japan during the same time has averaged about 6a huge pent-up market for consumer goods backed by huge percent. accumulated savings. Moreover, the effort during WWII lasted just four or five years, and many plants needed to do no Two factors are at play in the slow growth of productiv-more than return to what they had previously been making. ityinadequate investment in plants and equipment, and aToday's military plants and bases never had any commercial declining rate of technological innovation. Both of these. inpurpose, and employees have never known what it is like to turn, are caused by the high cost of capital in the U.S. work in the cost-conscious civilian sector. Conversion must Hall sees no immediate remedies, but stresses the neednot be mere work relief for a diminished military establish- for actions to begin rebuilding productivity. Polices to en-ment, but a concerted effort to redirect America's energies courage savings and reduce the budget deficit would be atoward restoring its industrial health. If the government good start. ["The Real Problem: Productivity Deficit," (1992,reverses past neglect by rebuilding the infrastructure, reno- Summer), The Forum] vating ground transportation, and improving the energy efficiency of the entire economy, big civilian markets will open galmplications up. The most serious obstacle to conversion is that recent administrations have opposed it, fearing that this constitutes The relevant question is how to increase technological"industrial policy". But the US has been pursuing an indus- innovation at the lowest possible cost and boost the research trial policy of excessive concentration of resources in the and development capacity of universities? Encourage andmilitary. This must change. "What is at stake in conversion is support corporate-university partnerships that allow univer- nothing less than the nation's economic future... Failure to sities to reduce development costs by actively participating in take action now would be one of the most portentous blunders the product development process. Of course, problems vis ain US history." [Ullmann, J. (1991. Aug-Sept). Building a vis proprietary ownership of knowledge versus free dis-peacetime economy, Technology Review, 94:6, pp. 57-63.] course of knowledge arise from such collaboration. How- ever, a well-managed private industry-university researchgwImplications: system can be a win-win solution for industry and for universities. Military-trained and experienced personnel will be leaving the armed forces in record numbers to fmd work in the Another implication of the push for productivity is theprivate sector. Additional education will be required at all expectation that colleges and universities will become morelevels, (i.e. from basic skills training to inclusion in profes- "productive." Increasingly, state legislators are questioning sional programs.) These individuals will be older, more what they perceive as low teaching loads and overly liberalindependent and more fmancially secure than traditional leave policies. As the dialogue between the state house and students. Many will find basic employment and attend school the campus becomes more heated, college and university to improve their position. They will be former members of the public relations people will have their work cut out for them. armed services, former civilian employees of the armed services, and former civilian employees of military contrac- Military Conversion tors and closely associated businesses and educational institutions. Career counseling will become an important service The end of the Cold War allows the US to cut defense to these individuals, and is one avenue for programs in higher spending substantially. In 1991, national defense employededucation to identify the needs of this population and to about 6 million people (about 5.1% of the labor force) in the establish or re-design programs to serve this special need private defense industry, the active duty military services, Such efforts may be exceptionally challenging, because the and Department of Defense civilian ranks. "Assuming large, ex-military person's response to "What skills do you have?" sustained cuts in defense spending over the next 10 years. as 7 On the Horizon VoL 1 Number 2 December 1992 or "What did you do?" can be incomprehensible to theraimplications ordinary faculty advisor or career counselor without a broad These are early signs of a potentially major social revo- military background, making it difficult to appreciate special lution characterized by a shift in focus away from the needs strengths. Specially designed non-resident programs. off- _ of large organizations to the individual needs of people. campus programs, evening and weekend courses, and intern- Concomitant with the political shift away from large organi- ship programs will have significant appeal. zations may be an increase in interest in the study of the democratic process, with a particular emphasis on individual rights. The areas of law, journalism, policy development, ENVIRONMENTALpolitical science, and policy analysis are likely to be attractive Increased Concern for the areas in this new political environment. Environment The Greens, a political party known for its focus onPOLITICAL environmental issues, appears to have registered enoughThe Clinton Administration's voters (1% of the votes cast in the last election) to be constituted as California's sixth qualified political party.Impact Though known for its environmental Warren activism, the Cikins, The Creen Party of 11 Brookings California consid- .. Institution ers its interests to . (Thefol- be much broada. lowing article According to Hank - and implications Chapot, a Party aremodified spokesman, the from remarks de- Greens are "an ac- livered by Mr. tivist party stand- Cikins to the ing for diversity, United Way of America Environmental Scanning Comm.lt- ecology, social justice, peace and grass-roots democracy." tee this past October. Editor). The election of Bill Clinton as Other concerns are post-patriarchal values, decentralizationPresident of the United States should give the leaders in and community-based economics. The Greens, originating in American higher education a surge of optimism about the Germany, are now located in over 50 countries world-wide.future of government support for education. Clinton is a Ballot drives like the one in California arc currently beingperson who in temperament and action gives one the belief waged in several other states. [Weintraub, D. M. (1991,that education means far more to him than it did to George January 3). Environmentalist green party may have ballotBush. Clinton understands how crucial higher education (and spot. The Los Angeles Times, pp. A3, A26.] concurrent research and development) is to the economic Several European nations are taking the lead in makingdevelopment of our country. plans to ban ozone-eating chemicals. Finland, France, Ger- How does this Clinton image translate into action? What many, the Netherlands, Denmark, Britain, Spain, Norway,did Clinton promise during the campaign? A brief summa- S witzerland, Italy, and Sweden are making plans to phase outtion of those pledges (with some overlap of elementary and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) by 1995. The U.S. is followingsecondary education matters with higher education) is as suit. The new democracies of Eastern Europe, however, havefollows: not jumped on the band wagon. Handling CFCs is largely a non-issue in these lands that are struggling just to swrvive. (a) making loan funds available to enable everyone [FriU, M. (1992, March 5). European nations race to stopqualified to attend college to do so (ixssibly creating a bi- ozone rip. The News & Observer, p. 9A.] partisan comMission on student financial aid); (b) developing an innovative system for repaying loans, A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll last year showed perhaps something like a National Service Trust Fund to that 67% of Americans are willing to pay 15 or 20 cents more provide the wherewithal to repay loans in return for public per gallon for cleaner gasoline. But a similarmajority op- service rendered; poses a 25 cent a gallon tax to encourageless driving (c) strengthening the research and development capabil- [Knickerbockrer, B. (1991, August 30). Americans adjust ity of American colleges and universities, including the their life-styles, slowly, to changes in energy use. The Chris- conversion of defense-oriented research to civilian-oriented tian Science Monitor, p. 3.]

8 On the Horizon Vol. 1 Number 2 December 1992 research, such as a civilian Advanced Research ProjectsDevelopment of Regional Trading Agency or dual-use technology partnerships; (d) giving greater priority attention to worker on-the-job Blocs training, keeping up with technological and other job changes The Asia-Pacific region has the fastest growth rate of any (possibly requiri4 employers to spend 1.5% of their payrollsregion. and this growth is likely to continue into the next on continuing education); century. Japan emerged as the world's economic powerhouse e) increasing federal spending on education by $10during the 1980s and is the economic giant of this region. billion in 1993 and by $20 billion in 1996; and. fmally, Japan is expected to show more real economic growth over (f) shifting priority orientation to public rather thanthe next 10 years than the U.S.; its continuing foreign-trade private education. surplus will drive additional global investment during the The risks to, and difficulties associated with, this agenda 1990s. The Japanese economy is adjusting to new pressures, are as follows: however. Savings are declining. Japan's trade surplus with (1) the difficulty of keeping education needs at the the U.S. fell in 1989. Chronic labor shortages are affecting the highest priority level in the face of other concerns such asJapanese economy. [What lies ahead: A decade of decision. economic stimulation, debt and deficit reduction, health care (1992). Alexandria, Virginia: United Way Strategic Institute, reform, global defense crises, and welfare reform; p. 39.]. (2) the sense of overcommitment to a set of goals that are Free-trade agreements can provide solid economic ben- very expensive, are controversial. are working at cross-efits to the U.S. In 1990, two-way trade with Mexico ap- purposes, and are possibly counterproductive; proached $60 billion, up $8 billion over the previous year and (3) the inability to mount a sustained effort in the face ofdouble the 1984 total. Free trade negotiations can address the competing needs, lack of sound and disciplined leadership; important Mexican barriers that remain, including numerous and auto trade restrictions and import licenses on many agricul- (4) the unavailability of adequate funds. tural goods. A free-trade agreement also can help us to compete globally in the 21st century. The EC is creating a Implications trading bloc with a population of 325 million and an economy After preparing a coherent and generally acceptableof almost $5 trillion, and Japan is strengthening its trade ties with its Pacific Rim neighbors. The result is greater European blueprint for action, college and university presidents need to and Asian export competitiveness. Free trade with Mexico get to work immediately to build alliances with liose of like and Canada can help us face that competition. [Bentsen, L. views. By working with other educational stakeholders to (1991, March 29). Pluses, minuses of free trade with Mexico. resolve conflicts, they can ensure that as unanimous a posi- The Christian Science Monitor, p. 19.1 tion as possible is presented to the Administration. If the U.S. teams up with Canada and Mexico in a free- One useful approach might be to propose a well planned trade agreement, as it is expected to do, this North American education summit similar in intent to the recent economic bloc could easily dominate the world economy. Together, the SLIMIllit, but with more coherent priorities. (The outcomes of the economic summit, along with the promises detailedthree countries have a population of 350 million and a $6 trillion GNP, surpassing the European Community. [What above, should provide a springboard, however.) lies ahead: A decade of decision. (1992). Alexandria, Vir- Given the current stated intention of cooperation, such aginia: United Way Strategic Institute, p. 40.)] summit could provide the rationale for a series of congressional hearings. Implications

The federal education establishment reaches far beyond The North American free-trade agreement will have a one or two agencies, and those with the power to help orsignificant impact on American society. Corporations, gov- hinder our institutions can be found in the most unlikelyernmental agencies, and colleges and universities will in- places. and on both sides of the Potomac. If the new admin-creasingly focus on Canada and Mexico..Executives, workers, istration is to be given effective guidance, it is incumbent onstudents, and professors must work closely with culturally educational leaders to go to Washington with the mostdivergent groups to establish plans that are to the mutual detailed possible map of the territory. Assaziations can bebenefit of all parties involved. Colleges and universities thus invaluable in providing support, and much is likely to behave more incentive to integrate the curriculum with a learned about association leaders as they st ift gears to dealmulticultural/global perspective to prepare students to func- with new faces and political agendas. However, new admin-tion more effectively with individuals with different back- istrations want to be assured that our representatives truly grounds. An increasing number of institutions will require a represent us. As do we. foreign language for graduation. Too, the number of academic exchange programs will sharply increase.

9 On the Horizon Vol. 1 Number 2 December 1992 Congress Questions Foreign Aid nature of man. Peace will only come when its source is following from the benign influence of Almighty God. "There (The New Isolationism?) is absolutely no way that government can operate successfully unless led by godly men and women operating under the The subject of U. S. foreign aid has become one of the laws of the God of Jacob." Robertson has formed the Chris- most avoided topics in the current American political smne. tian Coalition to rebuild the foundation for a free, sovereign The amount of "take-care-of-America-first" rhetoric reveals America and to wage the "epic struggle" between "people of the creeping isolationism that is coming increasingly to faith and people control U. S. foreign of the humanistic- policy. Washington is occult sphere." not hicely to take ad- P. . [Robertson, P. vantage of the °ppm- S. (1991, Septem- tunity for exercising ber). The New world leadership that 0 WorldOrder. lies waiting as a result Dallas, TX: Word of an end to the Cold a I Publishing.] War, even though it is 0 a calculated that about laimpiations $100 million in foreign eAS* (I aid can be redirected We should from current recipients note that Robert- to the new republics of son heads a fairly the former Soviet sizablemedia Union. empire, and hosts "The 700 Club" on TV, seen in 86 coun- Despite the large-sounding totals, America devotes only tries. TheNewWorldOrderwas#lon the Publishers Weekly about 03% of its gross national product on foreign aid, as Religious Bestsellers list and among the top ten on the secular opposed to 2% to 3% in the days of the Marshall Plan afternonfiction bestseller list. Robertson exemplifies some of the World War U. Right now, the prospects for reevaluating theforces opposing a comprehensive foreign aid pmgram, though U.S. policy of giving to foreign countries are not good. A new there appears to be unprecedented opportunity to fazilitate mood of isolationism (some might say its pressing domestic the development of democracy around the world. Economic nezds) is behind these policy judgments. [Seib G. (1992,problems are another force that appears to be nudging the US January 6). U.S. foreign aid, Unpopular at home, is slow totoward isolationism. adjust to a changing world. The WallStreetJournal, p. Al 1 .] However, efforts such as Operation Restore Hope run According to Pat Robertson, televangelist host of Thecounter to isolationism. The global leadership exhibited in 700 Club, the new world order is actually a quest to eliminate the last days of the Bush administration, and the generally national sovereignty, to destroy the Christian faith, and tobipartisan support it has received may bolster the role of establish a world government, a world police force, worldcolleges and universities in preparing leaders with a global courts, world banking and currency, and a world elite inperspective for an increasingly politically and economically charge of it all. To Robertson, dominabt forces espousing thisconnected world. view are the Council on Foreign Relations and the Trilateral Commissionthe behind-the-scenes Establishment. Other forces, according to Robertson, include various global issues TOOLS and world order programs at major universities. Robertson This issue, we'll look at JMP (pronounced "jump"), the states: "Consistently, the view is futurist, applying alterna-SAS Institute's Macintosh-based tool for exploratory statis- tive visions, i iaging, and other fanciful means of exploringtical analysis (with an IBM compatible sibling in the pipe- the promised globalist world-view which they believe is justline). ahead of us. Supporting the research and development of all these programs are some 150 foundations, funding agencies. But first, a word on behalf of software compatibility. As and research councils, ranging from Amnesty Internationalcomputer users and managers of computer users, we must to the World Future Society." Specifically mentioned villainspush for standards that insure that Macintosh users and/or PC include Richard Falk. Norman Cousins, Fritjof Capra, Willis users will be able to swap files, either on disk or over a Harman, the New Age world religion, the UN treaty on thenetwork. The products are there; they cost no more than those Rights of the Child, and "the forward thinking plans of thethat are limited to a single operating system, and they are, Club of Romethe notorious pro-death group that preaches generally speaking, among the easiest to learn and use. File the doctrine of zero population growth." The one thing thattranslation programs are a useful and necessary evil, but only utopian dreamers always omit, says Robertson, is the sinfulthat. As a corollary, when you require people to use a word 10 31 On the Horizon Vol. 1 Number 2 December 1992 processor or spreadsheet, otake certain that they also knowsummarize data, and conduct mut:ple regressions. how to use and produce "foreign" or exchangeable files. An By interacting with the graphics, rou can create subsets office worker who is a slave to DisplayWrite and doesn't of data and save them as distinct fries (all students with know how to save a file in a format that an equally enslaved WordPerfect user can use is guaranteeing hours of lostpreschool children from outside the immediate area, for example) and analyze those data separately. Meanwhile, you productivity as surely as if he or she were taking four-hour will be producing results tables that can be sent directly to lunches. File exchange is so important, particularly among your computer's printer or manipulated by Macwrite or a those of us who collectively produce documents, that I will compatible program, including slidemaking software. (SAS, try to attend to ease-of-sharing with the same compulsiveness you should add presentation-creating capacity, cc a direct I give ease-of-use in these reviews. link to Persuasion, et aL) Now the review. Even if designing a spreadsheet no The few statisticians to whom I have shown JMP have longer induces the computer equivalent of watching your feet approached it with a silver cross held firmly in front of them while you learned the Foxtrot, you are still in the minority if with both hands. To a true statistician, there is something at you can attack data analysis or database construction with the least suspect and possibly felonious about any software that same zest and familiarity as building a serious sandwich. allows a person to go fishing among the data, looking for With JMP 2.0, SAS has created the computer equivalentstatistically significant relationships. Especially if Oat soft- of Arthur Murray's footsteps-on-the-floor forstatistical analy-ware is intuitive, interesting and easy to use. IMP is all of sis. Given almost any set of data, from almost any otherthese. It allows you to produce utterly statistically indefen- program, or entered directly into IMP, you can be investigat-sible reports in a matter of hours, and even more indefensible ing those numbers for meaningful patterns in minutes, evenreports in a matter of minutes. But those reports can just as if you are a trained statistician. (That was not a typo. I'll easily be statistically defensible, either because you use real explain in a minute.) You accomplish this by interacting withstatistical rigor in formulating your inquiry in the rust plwe, visual representations of the numbers, such as bar charts and or because you have the self-control never to say anything rotatable clouds of data-points hanging in three-dimensionalstronger than "Looks hie there may be an interesting rela- space. Say you have a data file on the demographics of yourtionship here." If you can get the statistician to sit down with student body, with a record for every student. The recordsyou and work with IMP, you'll see an interesting transforma- themselves are displayed in a table, or spreadsheet format.tion. They'll begin wishing aloud that they had a similarly Every row is a stvdent, every column is a different variable. tactile and visual tool that was made for statisticians, and that Declare the gender and financial support columns to be Ywould run on a VAX or a PC. Preferably one that used their variables just by clicking the Y at the top of each of them with particular jargon. Help is on the way. Insight for the UNIX your mouse, then use a pull-down menu to produce a setof baroperating system, a 'IMP look-alike product also from SAS, charts. The results show the relative proportion of males andhas been around for a while. Insight for Windows and OS/2 fmales, as well as the distribution of students across variousis in the testing stage, and may be reviewed here later. The levels of funding. "But" say you "is the distribution of biggest ilifference between JMP and Insight is that while JMP funding equitable between men and women?" To see theis a stand-alone application, Insight is an add-on to what SAS relative pmportions, click with your mouse on the female barcalls base SAS. It also requires SAS-Graph if you wish to use of the gender histogram. The bar turns a darker shade, and sothe resulting pictures in anything like a slide-making pro- does the portion of bar of the funding histogram that repre-gram, or send them to a prin sents female students. The promotional literar tre, case illustrations and manu- That gives you just a taste of how you begin to interactals for all the above-mentioned programs are like mini- with your data. You could as easily have selected one or morecourses in statistics. For complete descriptions of features, or of the levels of funding and seen how they were representedjust a good read, send for the information packages. in the gender histogram. Given a large enough sample, you Pricing forJMP and Insight can be pretty complex, since could have run just about any of the common statistical tests, it depends on what packages you have already licensed, includingtests and Chi-square and determined whether whether you are a really eligible educational institution, and associations were statistically significant. In addition to be- a host of other variables. Fortunately, the sales people who ing able to compare group means, you can perform several must explicate the pricing policy are good humored and eager regression and curve-fitting routines and analyze categorical to please. However, it is safe to say that JMP can be purchased data (IMP has one of the most powerful text-response man- for under $700, and probably a whole lot less. One reputable agement capabilities around, making it marvelously capable mail-order house is asking $629. in looking at verbatim or one-word responses to surveys, without having to assign rumeric values. And if you do wish SAS Institute to assign numbers to words, JMP can do most of the work SAS Campus Drive without laborious item-by-item coding.) With the same point- Cary, N.C. 27513 and-c lick ease, you can perform factorial analyses, group and

11 On the Horizon VoL 1 Number 2 recember 1992

There is a great deal of usefulness and applicability of BOOKS Barker's paradigm concepts and methods to college and university environmental scanning and strategic planning. For example. Barker advises us to write down the major problems that everyone wants solved but feel are not readily TAKE APVANTAGE OF solvable, and then (a) proceed to seek possible solutions FUTURE EDGE which challenge the old rules and which may lead to paradigm shifts; (b) watch for paradigm shifts taking place Mark Meredith, University of Colorado, Boulder elsewhere; and (c) in either case, be ready to pioneer the shift and develop and enhance it to solve the problem(s). A few Looking forward in only one direction leads to a specialsuch problems facing higher education are as follows: kind of strategic blindness. One must scan the horizon con- 'Accommodating the changing demographic composi- stantly to identify the important changes occurring on thetion of students and the increase in ongoing adult education sidelines, at the edges. Joel Aleut!' Barker demands; Want to gain "extraordinary leverage in shaping your 'Reducing the high proportion of foced costs and fixed future'? ReadFuture Edge : Discovering the New Paradigmscurriculum of tenured faculty; of Success by Joel Barker (Morrow and Co., 1992, 240 pp.). While there is no such thing as a crystal ball, the closest thing "Funding increased capital costs and the major backlog to it for discovering your future and the future of yourof deferred maintenance; organization is the breakthrough paradigm concept skillfully "Increasing or otherwise compensating for declining presented in this work by Barker, who is arguably the leader state and federal financial support; in populariimg, with all that that entaiL, Thomas Kuhn's 'Reversing the decline in academic productivity; concept of paradigm. Barker has been talking to corporate audiences about paradigms since 1974. 'Recruiting quality faculty. Unlilce The Structure of Scien- By adopting paradigm "pli- tific Revolutions, Future Edge is ancy" and engaging in "future about innovation and anticipation. "Futt,t edge is edge" approaches to doing busi- It is also about communication, how ness, educational leaders could the mind works, scanning re- about nnovation create a tolerance for strategic sources, TQM, trends, opportunity, .and anticipation." exploration that could dramati- management and leadershipall cally change the managerial and revolving around the concept of communication climate. A few the paradigm. possibilities of the resulting benefits would be: To Barker, a paradigm is "a set of rules and regulations (written and unwritten) that does two things: (1) it establishes 'Breaking down the typical barriers between college and or defines boundaries; and (2) it tells you how to behaveuniversity sectors, their constituencies, legislative bodies, inside the boundaries in order to be successful." A paradigmand others; shift involves a change to a new set of rules, a new game. 'Getting better alignment and synthesis of academ ic and Paradigms are continually shifting in society, becomingnon-academic kinds of management; outdated and replaced by new ones, some gradually and some 'Establishing a more innovative and future-focused atti- not so gradually. Fundamental, major changes in societytude among faculty, staff, and students; such as environmentalism, deregulation, civil rights, and emergence of information as a key resourcemay not be 'Improving overall management methods and under- foreshadowed by trends. Instead. "these kinds of [paradigm]standings. changes in the rules create new trends or dramatically alter I leave you with one quote from Barker. "To be able to trench already in place." By understanding how paradigmsshape your future, you have to be ready and able to change work, you can optimize strategic exploration. You anticipateyour paradigms." the future by "watching for people messing with the rules. Mark Meredith is Director of Management Information Ex- This is the earliest sign of significant change." If you do not change and Analysis at the University of Colorado, Boulder. understand paradigms, you are likely to become trapped into "seeing the world in only one way." You will be unable to communicate clearly in the language of those who hold different paradigms than yours.

12 boriztl the environmental scanning newsletter sc4\.X\e for leaders in higher education

From the Editor IFYdu'REON THE BAND- With this edition we inaugurate two new sections: TrendWAGON, JUMP OFF NOW! Analysis andCommentar y. Magda1enaRoo0,editorofAERA's Special Interest Group in Futures Reset.--d; and Strategic Planning Interactive Newsletter, will write the trend analysisArnold Brown, Chairman section. She has been conducting a Delphi project withWeiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc. AERA SIG members on trends and issues fazing education. Beginning with this edition, she will inform us of the pane% sRemember George Orwell's 1984? Remember Big Brother? analysis of the research, policy and practice implications ofNow, think of the Rodney King case. What we have instead key trends and issues, and will, thereby, illustrate the useful-of the omnipresent, omnipotent Big Brother is a multitude of ness of this analytical technique. Little Brothersthe people keeping an eye on the authorities. In the commentary section, as with our lead atticle, we willAnd the ubiquity of the camcordernow in more than15% of print essays on potential developments on the horizon thatU.S. householdswill accelerate that unpredicted trend. may affect colleges and universities. We want these essays to be thought-provoking and provocative. Our commentatorsThat's just one example of a remarkable consequence of the may disagree. For example, in this edition, Wally Albers (likerevolution in information and communications technology. Ian Wilson in our December edition) argues for increased ties Most of the predictions made at the start of these revolutions between colleges and universities and businesses, while are proving to be equally erroneous or incomplete. Computer Chris de Winter-Hebron argues that such ties may lead todevelopment is another example. Computers have not be- conditions that threaten academic freedom. And what could come the overwhelming centralizing force they were pre- be more provocative than Arnold Brown's (in whose officedicted to be; instead they are contributing to decentralization, no computer can be found) argument to beware the techno-fragmentation, loosening of boundaries and gteater indi- logical bandwagon! vidual autonomy. No one took up my challenge in the December edition toThe world is being re-ordered along lines defined, not by nominate key issues fazing higher educ, lion. In each subse-geography or governmental authority, but by telecommuni- quent edition, we want to include an is:. !3e brief on a critical cations. When information is the most important resource in issue. Each brief will consist of a statement of the issue, itsthe worldand the least subject to controlgeography and background, its location on the "life-cycle" (i.e., the cycle sovereignty become increasingly less relevant. Networks are beginning with a faint signal giving rise to social expectations about the issue that then may get on the political agenth everything. leading to legislative requirements and social/political con-One of the most universally accepted predictions was that trol), and recommended courses of action for educationalcomputers would impact hardest on those least skilledthe leaders. illiterate and the innumerate. What is happening instead is Like our section on trend analysis, issue briefs are important extraordinary and completely unexpected: because it is prov- components in issues management. Bill Ashley and I will ing so difficult to "smarten up" the workforce, we are instead conduct a seminar on issues management for North Carolina "dumbing down" the technology. The simple fact is, it's community college presidents in the UNC-CH Institute forcheaper to do the latter than to do the fccmer. Academic and Professional Leadership's executive management program next month. With the permission of seminarComputers now provide employment opportunities for illit- participants, I will list the issues raised by them in the April erates, innumerates and people who can't read English. Fork- edition. We will begin our issue section with a brief on one oflift drivers, for example:get directions from talking computers; these issues. (Or on an issue that you nominate. The challenge fast-food restaurant cashiers punch pictures rather than num- remains!) bers on their registers. Virtual reality, now in its infancy, will soon enable an unskilled, unlettered laborer to perform the Issues management is an effective tool that you can use to complex task of operating a construction crane (and in doing anticipate potential problems or opportunities, thereby gain- so, allow a $7 an hour worker to displace one who makes $35 ing more lead time to position your organization in a turbulent an hour). environment. If you would like to know mote about this tool, consider attending a preconference workshop on issues man- Because these are such uncertain times, we may be more agement that Bill and I will present at the July meeting of theprone to accepting convervional wisdom. It can be so com- World Future Society. If you would hie to know more aboutforting to accept what others believe, say and do. But if this Continues, p16, col2 Continues, p2, col2 Licensed for internal duplication to License # 3 7 On the Horizon VoL 1 Number 3 February 1993 tumultuous age of change tells us anything, CONTENTS it is that there are no experts on the future. And because the stakes are so gmat, era- TREND ANALYSIS 3 demic conformity founded on baseless pre- SOCIAL 5 dictions about the development and TECHNOLOGICAL 8 consequences of technology can have dev- ECONOMIC 9 astating long-term imparts. ENVIRONMENT 9 POLITICAL 10 Right now our schools--K-12 and higher BOOKS 12 educationare universally using a curricu- TOOLS 13 lurn whose underlying premise is the need COMMENTARY 14 for people to become technologically liter- Editorial Board ate. It is widely believed that the future James L Morrison, Editor masters of the universe will be those who University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill have computer skins. Bah, humbug. James H. Heller, Associate Editor George Keller It is becoming increasingly clear that true Duke University University of Pennsylvania technological literacy lies not in knowing Bernard Glassman, Managing Editor Lowell Week tow to operate computers (which will con- and Tools columnist Western Illinois University PragmatixinformationDesign Editor, Trend Lines tinue to be "dumbed down"), but in know- William Ashley Una Lupica ing how best to use the superabundance of Ashley & Associates Early Signals information they generate. Walter A. Albers, Jr. Michael Marien All-nrs Systems Inc. Editor, Future Survey Beware of all predictions. The consensus of Kum. deasley Donna McGinty experts is that office machinery will create Tyndale Theological Seminary University of Georgia Or for Coat. Ed a huge demand for people with the me- Peter Bishop Editor, Lookouts chanical and electronic competencies nec- University of Houston at Clear Lake Gerald W. McLaughlin essary to repair all those copiers, faxes, Virginia Polytedmical Inst. & State U. Wayne I. Boucher computers, etc. And all the community col- Benton International Thomas V. Mecca Arnold Brown Piedmont Technical Colege leges and vocational schools have jumped Weiner, Edrich & Brown, Inc. Mark Meredith on the bandwagon to offer courses in office Lu Anne Corvelli University of Colorado-Boulder machine repair to unsuspecting youth. But United Way of America Magdalena Rcod every office machine manufarturer is de- K. Patricia Cross Editor, AERA SIG: Futures Research and veloping machines that will be able to diag- University of California, Berkeley Strategic Planning Interactive Newsletter nose and/or repair themselves. What kind Chris de Winter-Hebron Frans A. Van Vught H+E Associates Ltd. (England) University of Twente (The Netherlands) of a future are you training those young George S. Dodge Robert Wilkinson people for? Office, Chief Army Resent Pittsburgh State University Academia is often criticized for its slow- E. Raymcod Hackett Editor, Foresight College Information Systems George Wilkinson ness in responding to change. In this case, Richard B. Heydinger The Wilkinsco Group however, educational institutions may have University of Minnesota Editor, Happenings been too hasty. I would suggest that skepti- Peter Jonas Ian H. Wilson cism become more prevalent. Constantly SRI International Cardinal Stritch College ask "what if?" Constantly look for counter- On the Horizon is published October, December, February, April, and June by the trends. Constantly look at not only what the Institute for Academic and Professional Development, School of Education, The Univer- producers of technology are saying but what sity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. For more information, write James L. Morrison, the users of it are actually doing. Otherwise Editor, On the Horizon, CB3500 Peabody Hall, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 (phone 919 966-1354; Internet: [email protected]). too many young people in the future will fmd themselves trained for a world that never comes about. ."Beware of all predictions." Brown

2 3 6' On the Horizon Vol. 1 Number 3 February 1993

Practice: TREND Implement teacher and administrator training programs to reduce resistance to new instructional strategies surh as interactive TV, computer-based multimedia programs, and ANALYSIS distance-learning technology. Magdalena Rood, Editor, AERA SIG: Stop rewarding teachers for "dispensing knowledge!" Futures Research and Strategic PlanningImplications for State or Provincial Interactive Newsletter Initiatives Research: The American Educational Research Association's Special Interest Group on Futures Research and Strategic PlanningAnswer the following questions: has an ongoing discussion about the potential impact of Do students learn as much, less, or more, through interac- current trends and emerging issues on educational practice, tive technology mediums than through traditional classroom research, and policy. The intent is to stimulate discussion on education? the future of education and to generate useful insights about issues management strategies. In this column I will describe How much classroom management or discipline is needed the research, policy and practice implications at national andin distance learning programs? Under what conditions, if local levels of key trends identified by SIG members in aany, is distance-learning more effective than traditional class- three-round Delphi. The first key trend is, educationaltheoryroom learning? and practice is shVting from teachers as "dispensers of How much time do students and teachers devote to dis- knowledge" to "facilitators of learning." tance learning vs traditional classroom instruction? Implications of the Trend for National What is the relationship between forms of school gover- Initiatives nance (organizational structures) and teaching/learning styles? Policy: Research: Compare the effec- "Outlaw practices like Outlaw practices like standard- tiveness of instructional ized and competitive testing that favor the "dispenser of knowl- methods used in the cre- andardized and corn- edge." ative and expressive arts Waive testing that favor with the methods used Provide salary incentives for for conventional (aca-the 'dispenser of knowl- teachers to train in the use of tech- demic) subjects. edge."'Rood nology alternatives. Continue R & D of Practice: multimedia curricula and 'Allow in-school testing of tech- technology. nology alternatives (interactive TV, video computer, audio Policy: multimedia ) to traditional classroom education. Create incentives for government employees to take dis- Provide training and technical assistance to reduce resistance-learning courses. ta ice to new content delivery modes. Create tax incentives to institutions and companies to Support residencies in schools by a variety of creative and reduce the cost of hardware and courseware for educafionalprofessional people, (i.e., architects in schools, science fic- agencies. tion writers in schools, etc.) Reguiate network access costs to promote educ^sional andImplications for Local initiatives interdisciplinary networking. Resolve copyright issues related to what is produced on-Research: line. Conduct school and community based action research of Adopt the notion of social critical thought as a guidingthe critical/emancipatory kind, not the technical/empirical philosophy of schooling. kind. Identify better teaching methods and protocols in the

3 39 On the Horizon VoL 1 Number 3 Febniary 1993 AI. Tir interactive use of technology. Practice: Policy: Provide information, training, and technical assistance to promote local development of community schools where Support alternative modes of teaching. _ facilities may be used to educate children and also to provide Train parents to be "facilitators of learning" too! services such as parenting skills training, early childhood education, after school and latch key programs, drug abuse Develop netwaking consortia to reduce on-line and tech- and gang intervention, literacy programs, intervention pro- nology prices. grams for the homeless, support and intervention programs Outlaw practices (like standardized and competitive test-for the abused and the abuser, counseling for families and ing) that favor the "dispenser of knowledge." youth, and job opportunities. Practice Establish funding priorities for services that address the needs of children amd their families with respect for their Train teachers to teach using a variety of distance-learning cultural and ethnic differences. technology alternatives. Teach courses in information organization and management. Implement programs to manage health and educational Key Trend: Growing numbers of school-aged childreninformation for migrant students who cross state lines and come from non-traditional homes and communities. Re-must be served by agencies and schools in a number of latedTrend: Increasiagly,children and their families are indifferent locations. need of health care aad social services. Implications for State or Provincial Implications for National Initiatives initiatives Research: Research: Assess the needs of families, and develop approaches that Assess needs of families within the state. Identify pro- build family unity, a sense of community, and encourage grams that successfully address these needs. Support the people to tackle problems together. spread of such programs. Identify the characteristics of programs that successfully Evaluate the impact of early childhood education pro- address the problems of at-risk children and their families. grams on at-risk children and their families. Evaluate the impact of early childhood programs on the Conduct a cost-benefit analysis of public schools provid- subsequent learning performance and living conditions of at-ing day care services to children 1 - 4 risk children. Policy: Policy: Change school fund- Formulate ing formulas to aid an integrated early childhood pro- family policy, . grams provided by doing away school districts. lb S of a with current Create incentives tor a a . 9 separate wel- ' II go a . state-wide and local fare, educa- inter-agency collabo- tion, and ration efforts that work health policies, S . . on problem areas such consolidating early childhood edu- programs and cation, parenting train- funding ing, latch key and after streams. school programs, drug Develop incentives for inter-agency and community col-and gang intervention, literacy, homelessness, etc. laboration efforts, such as community schools, that integrate Create incentives for the development of community social, health, and educational services. schools that integrate social, health, and educational services Provide funds to compensate for differences in the ability and thus become focal points for community activities. of the states to meet the educational needs of at-risk children. Practice: Mandate equal access for all children to quality social, Provide regulatory exemptions, information, training, and health, and educational services. technical assistance to help local districts implement commu-

4 4 On the Horizon Vol. 1 Number 3 February 1993 nity schools, integrating social and health service, before and after school programs, and other prog. Ams needed by at-riskSOCIAL children and their families. Demonstrate state-level commitment to alleviating pm-Women in charge - erty and supponing families by creating inter-agency collaboration committees, councils, or task-forces to developIn 1970 women headed 21% of households; in 1988 28% of action plans, establish quality standards, and oversee servicethe 91 million households in the United States were headed delivery. by women. Another 15% of households are headed by men and 57% by married couples. By 2000, women are projected Implications for Local Initiatives to head 29% of households, only a moderate increase. Within the female-headed households there is much diver- Research: sity. One-third of women who head households have incomes Evaluate the impact of early childhood programs on at-below the poverty level. Median income for female-headed risk children and their families. Compare the quality ofhouseholds in 1987 was $14,600, compared with $24,800 for programs offered by public and private providers. male-headed households. Median income for white female Assess community needs and the availability of localheads of household was $17,000; $9,700 for African-Ameri- programs, such as early childhood education, parenting train-cans; and $10,200 for Hispanics. Widows account for 38% of ing, latch-key and after school programs, drug and gangfemale-headed households, fallmg from 55% in 1970. A intervention, majority (52%) of literacy, these women live homelessness, alone. Only 25% are single parents with etc. a.. I children under age Study the awe.* 18; another 12% of effects of al- these households 4. 4, az 1 1 te rn at i v e .4 Is have adult children. schooling ar- II The remainder have ran g emen ts their relatives or non- such as longer relatives in their school days households. Spend- and year ing patterns, enter- round schedules on achievement. tainment and travel behaviors, and earning potential are as Policy: diverse as the group itself. These variables may change with the flux of the group because idividuals may move in and out Create incentives for inter-agency and community col-of this subset of the population as they mature, many, divorce laboration to provide daycare services for children. or are widowed, and remarry. However, the percentage of Promote collaboration among social, health, and educa-female-headed households is expected to remain fairly con- tional services to ensure access for all children. stant to the year 2000. [Women in charge. (1989, September). American Demographics, pp. 27-29.] Fund longer operating hours for school buildings to allow diverse uses of the facilities. Implications Practice: As more women (a larger percentage of the population) Universities need to institute preparation programs forbecome heads of household, the response to their specific day-care and early child education workers. needs becomes more critical. The traditional family, and the support system implied thereby, will exist for fewer and Implement inter-agency collaboration programs to de-fewer people in the future. Therefore, support systems from velop necessary support structures that will improve accessother areas of society, including higher education, can be to social, health, and educational services. expected to increase. The conditions of the national population are generally reflected in the subset of females who head households. They vary in age, race, income level, and number of dependents. They have skills that are invisible to traditional evaluation methods. We should focus on these skills and how they 1 uanstate into job opportunities. 1 5 On the Horizon Vol. 1 Number 3 February 1993 Time and energy spent in customizing programs for womenconsequences too sorrowful to recount." can pay off in increased enrollment. Increasingthe self-[Krauthammer, C. (1992, October 5). Racist bequest a sign of confidence and the earning power of women, in turn, in-slide back to exclusion. The News &Observer, Raleigh, N.C., creases the overall economic health of the country. 9A.] [Editor's note: this item was contributed by Sylvia Pierce, Fayetteville Technical College.] Implications U of California accepts racially delimited Colleges and universities are now more likely to be offeted scholarship bequest race/ethnic restricted money. Barring the adoption of MS regulations forbidding the tax deductibility of such dona- The University of California Board of Regents recentlytions, development offices must be prepared to formulate decided to accept a scholarship bequest fcr "very poorpolicies regarding accepting such funds. Can we defend a Caucasian American scholars." The acceptance of this be-double standard in which funds restricted to minorities are quest reflects a major change in policy reganling raciallyacceptable, while funds restricted to whites are not? How do delimited bequests and marks the end of the color-blind ideal.we respond to this question given the policy to increase Years ago, racially discriminatory funds were readily ac-diversity on college campuses? cepted by the University with no questions asked. However, after the civil rights revolution of the 1960s, the UniversityAcademic research in the new decided to continue to administer the old racially delimited bequests, but to discourage the acceptance of any additionaleconomy bequests. Five years later, the university took a tougher standMore than one half of the state colleges and universities in the on the racial issue. The racial restrictions of old bequests werecountry are operating on reduced budgets. In order to survive ignored and new bequests that contained racial restrictionsin tough economic times, many campuses are targeting were not accepted. programs for re- By 1977, affirma- duction. The process of tive action re- L L placed .we are sliding back to the identifying pro- color-blindness as gams for reduc- the new Zeitgeist. kind of group rights Balkanization tion using a cost The University ac- that has been tried everOvhere benefitanalysis is cepted racially re- quitesimple. strictive donations from Beirut to Beldrade, with cop- However,the as long as the Uni- sequences too sorrowful to re- politics of the versity could fmd academic envi- unrestricted funds count."Krauthammer ronment make it to match the re- quite difficult to strictedfunds. eliminate costly, However, now fifteen years later, the policy has come fullcounterproductive programs. If a cost reform initiative is to circle. The University has weepted a bequest that explicitlybe introduced to state colleges and universities, it will likely excludes minority groups without seeking unrestricted match-come from outside, (e.g. from the legislature, trustees or ing funds. others with strong financial leverage). The acceptance of the bequest is consistent with a newAcademic research is one activity that does not stand up well national attitude of race-conscious dispensation, most re-in a cost benefit analysis. Academic reseatth absorbs enor- cently evidenced by the racial gerrymandering of congres-mous resources with a questionable return on investment. sional districts. While the intent of the congressionalWhile some academic research has substantial value, vast redistricting plan is to provide greater representation foramounts of research serve no other purpose other than to minorities in government, the unintended consequence isadvance the careers of those who publish it. Robert W. clear. Segregating blacks in one district inevitably segregatesClower, former editor of The American Economic Review, whites in surrounding districts. surmised that mostof the scholarly papers that came in to him represented "absolute dullness, the lack of any kind of new What is most tragic about these policies is that "the world has idea." Clower concluded that "most papers would have been long looked to us as the most successful multi-racial, multi-better off if they had not been written." ethnic society on the globe. Rather than continue the pursuit of the traditional American ideal of common citizenship, weTo Sowell, a well-known conservative Afro-American are sliding back to I lie kind of group rights Balkanization that scholar, the most efficient strategy to improve the quality of has been tried everywhere from Beirut to Belgrade, withteaching is to eliminate the "publish or perish" objective of

6 On the Horizon Vol. 1 Number 3 Febru2ry i993 academic employment A drastic reduction in academic published, numbers of students educated, or improvement in research would bring more professors back in touch with thethe quality of education may not serve as effective arguments students. The net result would be a better learning environ- in budget requests. Instead, colleges and universities may ment and a higher quality education. come under increasing pressure to document and demonstrate how their programs have a tangible effect on the [Sowell, T. (1992, November 2'7) 'Publish or perish' slights community, be it economic, health, or social service related. students. The Herald-Sun, Durham, NC.] (Too often "impact" studies focus only on the number of jobs Implications provided by the institution and amount of money spent by students in local stores.) Institutions that can effectively This article represents an increasing perception by the public demonstrate a positive impact on the community may have a that the emphasis on research and publication adversely much easier time acquiring the particular level of support that affects the quality of the learning environment. This issue,they need to continue their work. which has been argued vehemently on university campuses for decades, is increasingly visible on editorial pages and audible in the halls of legislatures. If the argument is not resolved on campus, it may be resolved in the state-house; mandated teaching loads and class sizes may well be the result. TECHNOLOGY Television of the future

Childless families outnumber The technology of television, including gadgetry, will take a families with children giant leap into electronic sophistication by the year 2000. As early as 1998, the television screen may hang On tke wall, like For the first time in decades there are more American familiesa picture in a frame, and receive transmissions by digital without children in the home than with them. In 1991, 51.1%signals (which are used by computers), not the current analog of family households had no one under 18. The increase is duewaves that are similar to television's forerunner, the radio. By to the aging of the population and to more and more couples 2000 interacfive television will be commonplace. Maga- deciding not to have children. Families without children atzines, encyclopedias, books, and all other conceivable writ- home have different interests, more free time and oftenten material can be accessed from the television screen. greater financial resources than couples with children. Thus,Voting can be done by television. On-screen catalogs will children's issues tend to become less important to this group. flourish because each person will be known bY individual- This change in the relative number of childless families mayized identification (including credit card nuMbers, address, signal a further reduc don in the political influence ofchildren' sand phone number). If telephone companies invest the $300 issues. Around the country, the number of senior restrictedbillion required for fiber optic connection, cable companies communities is steadily increasing. In many of these areas,will reap the benefits by buying into the connection. AT&T school taxes have been eliminated. In others, it is difficult tois already exploring such partnerships. With fiber optics, pass school bond issues. This plakes an increased fmancialtelevision will have the capacity to deliver thousands of burden on a smaller proportion of the community to maintainchannels of video. The final coup before the year 2000 will be the quality of children's programs. Compounding this prob- to put a computer into each television. High-definition (HDTV) lem is the tight economy and a belief that more public money television will offer "wide-screen images, razor-sharp im- should not be spent on anything, especially children's pro-ages and crystal-clear sound." And all this from American, grams. The change in the proportion of childless families may not Japanese, technology. [Rogers, M. (1993, January 23- help explain why social security and Medicare have lifted 29). A simple guide to the television of the future. TV Guide. many elderly out of poverty, while cuts in welfare and pp. 27-30.] Medicaid have helped make one in five children poor. [Stone, A. (1992, May 8) Family 'shift': Most households Implications have no children, USA Today, 10A.] The snowball effect of technology is a reality in the 1990s. Technology has also been made affordable for the average Implications household. Technology is exploding. Technological knowl- Although the Clinton administration focuses a great deal ofedge is expanding exponentially. Woefully, college and attention on children, the shift in the proportion of childlessuniversity faculty members continue to use the lecture method families and the corresponding reduction in political influ-as the primary delivery system in the classroom. By 2000, ence of children's issues may affo:t colleges and universities students will be growing up with FIDTV and interactive as well as public schools. Achievements such as papersprogramming. These students will not learn well in a pre- dominately lecture classroom. It is possible that in the future

43 On the Horizon Vol. 1 Number 3 February 1993 students will be able to learn more by staying at home than byImplications leaving home to go to school. Even if education can find the resources to invest in the new technology, educational deliv-As growing numbers of colleges and universities take to the ery systems and classroom procedures will need to adapt toair waves to deliver instruction, competition fcc students, these dynamic technological advances. markets, channels, broadcast licenses, and exclusive rights to offer particular curricula, will greatly intensify between Few areas in the future are as predictable as the issue of thesectors of higher education and between institutions in-state need to insure that educators are proficient in existing tech-and across-state. Will a new phenomenon appear among nology and the need to prepare them to embrace emerging facultythe technology. Re- professor who is search is necessary a media star/ce- to determine the "It is possible that in the future lebrity (e.g.,Carl use of existing Sagan)? Will technology in cur- students will be -able to learn faculty careers rent educational mare by staying at home than by be influenced by arenas. Studies that telegenics, as has assess educators' leaving home to go to school.- come to be true expertise in exist- of news anchors? ing technologies Pierce will be helpful in FCC predicting their predisposition to accept and adapt to new and emerging allows TV technological applications. The American political agendatransmission through telephone gives lip service, at best, to placing education at the fcrefront of funding programs at local, state, and national levels.lines Studies to identify what importance is placed on investing inThe Federal Communications Commission has decided to technology for education, and on investing in professionalallow telephone companies to carry television signals on development programs for educators to learn the appropriatephone lines. The new technology, which allows huge amounts technologies, are critical. [Editor's note: This item wasof information to be transmitted instantly, will permit a contributed by S ylvia Pierce, Fayettville Technical College.]variety of new services. This would make universal access to new, high-speed computer networks a reality. Currently, Role of information technology in transmitting information contained in a single still from a an environment of constraint color-television show through a standard telephone wire takes minutes. To deliver these services, standard copper Colleges and universities are being forced to deal withwire used in the current telephone system will be replaced unanticipated challenges because of current economic andwith fiber-optics cable. Although the fiber-optic cable ini- future demographic pressures. The challenges that highertially installed is expected to deliver television signals, those education will face include cuts in government funds, endow- same lines can provide nationwide linkage between higher ments, gifts and grants; a drop in student applications aseducation institutions. [Wilson, D. L. (1992,July 29). Host of increased numbers of applicants cannot afford tuition; anew college services could follow plan to allow TV signals on decline in the quality of student3 as a consequence of thephone lines. The Chronicle of Higher Education, pp. A13- competition for dwindling numbers of students; the diversion 14.] of funds to K-12; and state policy-makers questioning the concept of higher education as a public good. Implications Information technology will play a crucial role in this newPresident Clinton is pressing for a nationwide fiber-optic operating environment by altering methods of student evalu-communications infrastructure. The FCC decision will ren- ation, professors' duties and responsibilities, and the centralder Clinton's plan much more cost-effective and will accel- role of classroom lectures as a mode of instruction. Distanceerate its implementation. Thus, colleges and universities will learning systems are likely to become increasingly importantmore easily share information and library holdings sooner as institutions use this technology to enable students to foregothan originally expected. lectures and demonstrations in favor of multimedia presenta- tions. Teaching skills could change accordingly and shiftThe fiber-optic infrastructure network will enable institu- from instructional delivery to instructional design. [1990stions to reach into any home or office that has telecommu- pose difficult challenges for most colleges and universities. nications capabilities, thereby enabling a tremendous growth (1992, Fall). What's Next, Vol. 14, No. 3., p. 4.] in distance learning and much greater potential for reaching populations who have difficulty attending traditional classes.

8 On the Horizon VoL 1 Number 3 February 1993 Because of the breakup of the Bell system, some areas in the U.S. have greater opportunities to take advantage of this technology than others. If your phone company is not install-ENVIRONMENT ing the electronic equivalent to "on and off ramps" to the electronic superhighway, your institution could literally beThe execution of the species bypassed. Environmental crisis, or eco-catastrophe, is not merely a remote possibility for the distant future. "Never beforenot even 65 million years ago at the end of the Cretaceous period when dinosaurs became extincthas there been an extinction rate comparable to today's," writes Dave Forman in Mother Jones. Currently, one-third of all species living are ECONOMIC threatened with extinction within the next 20 to 30 years. Whether scientists agree with Forman or not, them is reason Higher education finance in the for concern about the extinction rate. Leading field biologists 1990s: Hard choices for communityspeculate that by the end of the cennuy the only large mammals remaining "will be those that we humans choose to colleges allow to exist" Human beings are having a systemic impact There is good news and bad news in recent data for 34 stateson the life-support system of the earth and need to recognize on 1990-91 and 1991-92 appropriations to community col-that we "are only one of several million species... [and] have leges. The good news is that appropriations to two-yearno divine right to treat all other life as 'resources' for our use." colleges increased by 12.5% in 1991-92 across the 34 states The author puts forth five ideas to help solve the environmen- reporting as compared with 2.5% for higher education over-tal problems facing society today: all. Indeed, the level of support for community colleges was five times that of higher education as a whole. Declines in 1. Stop the environmental destruction now. state support are primarily in the south and northeast 2. Establish large ecological preserves. The bad news is that state appropriations for two-year insti- 3. Slow, halt and reverse the growth of human population. tutions did not keep pace with enrollment growth. As a consequence, tuition in public two-year colleges went up 4. Reduce excess consumption. 13% in 1992the largest increase of any sector of higher 5. Take individual action. education. Contributing to this situation is that higher education's total share of state budgets has been decliningImplications while support of other public priorities (i.e., Medicaid, corrections, etc.) has increased. One factor that may be contrib-Institutions of higher education may take action in most of the uting to the shift away from higher education and two-yearsuggested areas listed above. Increasing awareness of human colleges as a budgetary priority for state government is the overpopulation, recognizing natural species as not contin- growing public distrust of all institutions including highergent on human valuation (instead of as resources designed for education. [McClenny, K. & Mingle, J. 1992, September. human consumption), and teaching "tempered consump- Higher education finance in the 1990s: Hard choices fortion," can prepare future generations for the exacerbated community colleges. Leadership Abstracts, Vol. 5, No. 7.] environmental problems they will undoubtedly have to face. These changes may be reflected in myriad ways: a revised Implications curriculum, the emergence of new campus organizations, or, Many two-year colleges, once able to offer a smorgasbord ofas is increasingly happening, the development of new aca- programs, are faced with decisions of curricular triage anddemic programs in the environmental sciences. [Editor's retrenchment. Like other institutions in our society, two-yearnote:This item was contributed by Megan Koch, UNC-CH colleges will have to "do more with less." They must wingraduate stu&nt.] inter-governmental competition, seek alternative sources of revenue, and restructure themselves by placing emphasis on highly focused missions. Perhaps this is an opportunity to forge alliances with other schools. For example, some community colleges are joining with public schools and the business community to develop full-blown appienticeship programs.

45 On the Horizon Vol. 1 Number 3 February 1993 ies, University of Sonthem California, writes that for more than three centuries, the overall structure of world politics has POLITICAL been founded on an anarchic system of sovereign nation- states that did not have to answer to any higher authority. This Global change in governance and state-centric world is no longer predominant. A complex sovereignty multi-centric world of diverse and relatively autonomous acmes has emerged. The various transformations at wcck in Boutros Boutros-Ghali, the UN Secretary General, writes, world politics are "A new chapter in the enlarging, and history of the UN has will continue to begun. With newfound enlarge, the UN's appeal the world orga- centrality in the nization is being uti- I I emergent global lized with greater order. As its roles frequency and grow- expand, the oping urgency." The new . portunities for the era has brought new II UN to serve as an credibility to the UN, agent of change along with rising ex- seem bound to pectations. The UN multiply. What machinery, which had then can be done to maximize the UN's chances of function- often been rendered inoperative by the dynamics of the Cold ing as an agent of positive rather than negative change? War, is suddenly at the center of many problems. The end ofRosenau offers these recommendations: 1) reconsider the the Cold War has led to a dramatic expansion of UN peace-sovereignty principle so that it is subject to More than one keeping services, along with a fourfold increase in costs in theinterpretation; 2) enhance UN authority by establishing a rust half of 1992. The UN needs immediately available cash,permanent UN mission in the capital of every UN member, personnel, and equipment. The question of national sover-which makes services available to individuals and organiza- eignty is a major intellectual question of our time. "Hope hastions in the multi-cenut world, as well as to host govern- been crucial; achievement is now required. Beyond declara- men ts (services would include information about tions, beyond position-taking, the time is here to look at ideaspeacekeeping activities and the work of various technical as plans for action. Beyond restructuring, the culture of theagencies); 3) consider addition of a people's assembly to the UN must undergo a transformation." [Boutros-Ghali, B.UN, in which representatives would be directiy elected (but (1992, Winter). Empowering the United Nations. Foreignsuch a legislatare might be counterproductive); 4) create a Affairs, 71:5, Winter 1992-93, 89-102.] global "Peace Corps" service of volunteers to cope with UN Representative Lee Hamilton writes that the UN is experi-system overload; 5) consider new procedures for selecting encing the best of times and the worst of times. It is nowfuture Secretary Generals: 6) enlarge the Bully pulpit by within reach of attaining the ideals of its charter, yet it hascreating, say, five new Deputy Secretaries General (or UN never been more overburdened and underfunded. The end ofAmbassadors-at-Large) who would visit national capitals the Cold War has vastly expanded UN responsibilities: it hasand engage chiefs of state and other key elites in dialogue. launched 13 peace-keeping operations in the last five years,[Rosenau, J. N. (1992, Fall). The United Nations in a turbu- as many as in the past 40 years. But resources have not kept lent world.International Peace Academy (NYC), Occasional pace. and the UN must eliminate redundant, obsolete, andPaper Series. Boulder CO: Lynne Rienner Publisher.] questionable programs. The US can help by: 1) buildingRosenau and colleague, Ermst-Otto Czempiel, maintain that consensus in support of reform; 2) supporting an expansiona world government capable of controlling nation-states has of the Security Council to enhance legitimacy and to per-never evolved. But governance is not synonymous with suade wealthy countries to assume greater UN burdens; 3) government, and considerable governance underlies the cur- helping the UN respond better to crises by enabling memberrent order among states and gives direction to the challenges states to provide military units on short notice; 4) paying ourposea by various problems. Indeed, governance without UN dues on time and in full; 5) pushing for revision of UN government is in some ways preferable to governments that dues assessments so that Japan, Germany, and the Persian are capable of governance. During the present period of rapid Gulf states pay a larger share; 6) exploring new sources ofand extensive global change, the constitutions of national funding such as a "peace endowment" created by public andgovernments and their treaties have been undermined by the private donations and taxes on airline travel and arms sales.demands and greater coherence of ethnic and other sub- [Hamilton, L. H. (1992, 1 December). Reforming the post-groups, the globalization of economies, the advent of broad cold-war UN. The Christian Science Monitor, p19.] social movements, the shrinking of distance by information James Rosenau, Director, Institute For Transnational Stud- technology, and the "mushrooming of global interdependen-

10 On the Horizon Vol. 1 Number 3 February 1993 cies" fostered by AIDS, pollution, drugs, and terrorism. the world will become more complex, and we will live "in a Much depends on how the characteristics ti; the globalkind of international democracy." system are perceived: either as the continuing dominance ofInformation technology is driving nation-states toward coop- states or states as a part of a larger new order. There is noeration with.each (*per. It has created a new world monetary clear-cut evidence to support orreject either of these perspec, standaa'aritinfolination' standard," which has replaced the tives, and "a new or reconstituted global order may takegold standard and the Bretton Woods agreements. "There is decades to mature." Rosenau concludes that "the prolifera-no way fer any nation to opt out of the Information Standard." tion of governance without government, of access points in a polyarchal world, poses huge new challenges to citizenship"The electronic global market has produced what amounts to in the emergent global order." Increasingly people will have a .giant vote-counting mazhine that conducts a running tally to choose between channeling their loyalties to systemicon what the world thinks of a government's diplomatic, order or subsystemic autonomy. But tendencies toward afiscal, and monetary policies. That opinion is immediately pluralist older may be substantially offset by the centralizing reflected in the value the mattet places on a country's tendencies inherent in worsening environmental conditions,currency." Information is the preeminent form of capital; the which would encourage a cooperative global order. [Rosenau, information economy is "intractably global" (which requires J. N and Czempiel, E. (Eds.) (1992, March). Governancecompromises of national sovereignty that seemed impossible without government: Order and change in world politics. a few years ago). Global conversations enabled by telephone Cambridge & NY: Cambridge U Press.] linkages are expected to triple in the 1990s. [Wriston, W. B. (1992, Septem- Kenichi Ohmae ber). The twilight writes that we are of sovereignty: seeing the disap- ...we are seeing the disappear- How the infor- pearance of na- mation revolu- tional borders and ance of national borders*and the tion is the emergence of emergence of regional states. transforming the regional states. In world. NY: Europe, regions Charles such as Baden- Scribner's Sons.] Wurttemberg, Al- sace-Lorraine, Catalonia, and Wales are emerging. The sameImplications borderless phenomenon is taking place in North America: as national borders disappear between Canada and the US, the We are increasingly becoming a global, interdependent soci- regions around the five Great Lakes will become very impor-ety. Do our curricular programs reflect these changes? Do tant. Vancouver and Se attle will form an economic region-they give attention to these changes with concomitant impli- state to serve as a northwestern gate of North America tocations for what it takes for our graduates to function effec- Asia. The advantage of forming a southern C-11.ifornia region tively in this changing world? state is quite obvious, and discussion is going on for sharing We cannot depend upon public schools to prepare entering a San Diego-Tijuana international airport. In Asia, region students for this world. A recent Congressional Institute for state formation is a lot slower and is far behind that observedthe Future report, International Education for a Global in Europe and North America. Still, Singapore has become Society (no date), states that young (aged 18-24) American the capital of ASEAN and its industrial base has expanded adults' knowledge of geography rank behind those in Swe- into parts of Malaysia and Indonesia. Hong Kong is in effect den, West Germany, Japan, France, Canada, and Great Brit- the capital of Gwangdong State, and Fuzhou and Taiwan are ain. Students in teacher preparation programs take fewer now forming a region state. If these regions are left to prosper, international education-related courses, including courses there will be "20 Singapores" in "Pink China." [Ohmae, K. teaching foreign languages, than any other college majors. (1992, 1 June). The emergence of regional states:The disap- There is a shortage of foreign language teachers at either the pearance of borders. Vital Speeches of the Day, 58:16, 487- elementary or secondary level in half the states, and 3Z states 490.] will soon face a shortage of language teachers. In elementary Finally, Walter B. Wriston, former chairman of Citicorp,schools, only 17% offer any form of language instruction. In writes that the information revolution is profoundly threaten-secondary schools, only 10% of the students take four years ing to power structures of the world, because the nature andof language training (one to two years are required). In powers of the sovereign state are being altered and compro-contrast, Japanese high schools require six years of foreign mised in fundamentai ways. The dissemination of once language study. closely held information to huge numbers of people who What should we be doing? With respect to curricular pro- didn't have it before often upsets existing power structures. grams, increasing language requirements is a natural. But Pressures on repressive governments for freedom and human how do you stimulate professors to revise their courses to rights will grow. As power increasingly resides in the people,

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47 On the Horizon Vol. 1 Number 3 February 1993 reflect international concerns? What about workshops/semi-more receptive to new ideas and new initiatives, particularly nars sponsored by the chief academic officer andofferedif the outcome of these ideas and initiatives is administrative through campus centers for teaching and learning? Whatefficiency. In this new environment, college and university about establishing "sister" institutions on various continents,leaders can have an important role in assisting non-profit and, via satellite communications, have students and facultyfoundations and organizations in selecting and evaluating discuss world problems, issues, and the future with theirfunding proposals and in working with the non-profits to counterparts in these sister institutions? esublish and implement a systematic program to address particular social policy issues. It is important, therefore, that Government college and university leaders volunteer to looks to serve on non-profit non-profits 'The new political environment boards in order to foster interaction and comm u- Under the new provides an unprecedented op- nication. Clinton administration, the non-profit portunity to participate in the sector will play an research and development of important role in the transformation social policy." of govenunent,par- BOOKS ticularly in how the reincarnated public sector operates. The government willThinking for a Living forge a strong partnership with non-profits to reduce costs and increase efficiency. Non-profits will be called upon for the generation of new ideas and for evaluating their feasibil- Reviewed by Walter A. Albers, Jr., ity. In a campaign policy statement, Clinton indicated that theAlbers Systems, Inc. non-profit sector is one of the primary determining factors in the health and vitality of America's communities. Govern-Thinking for a Living [Ray Marshall and Marc Tucker, 1992, ment at all levels will rely on non-profit organizations toBasic Books, New York, NY] has its genesis in the work of provide certain services more efficiently and more effec-the Carnegie Forum on Education and the Economy, estab- tively than government bureaucracy. lished in late 1984 under the auspices of the Carnegie Corpo- ration of New York. Marc Tucker was the executive director Clinton brings to Washington a track record of developingof the Forum; Ray Marshall, a trustee of the Carnegie Corpo- non-profit alliances. As governor of Arkansas he was instru-ration, was a member of the Forum's advisory council. Ray mental in the formation of a bank holding company with aMarshall may also be remembered as Secretary of Labor non-profit arm. The purpose of the holding company was tounder president Jimmy Carter. These two gentlemen joined spur the state's economy and stimulate new jobs by providingforces to write Thinking fo: a Living in order to present the access to financing, capital management and technical assis-ideas that grew out of the work of the Forum as an integrated tance. The program was so successful in Arkansas, he nowwhole to a wide public audience. plans to create 100 such banks throughout the United States. The book's premise is simpie. Maintaining steady growth in Clinton places high value in the ideas, research, and networks productivity and being competitive in the emerging global that emerge from the non-profit sector. It is a sector free toeconomy depends critically on the skills of our people and our explore social innovation, and it provides an independentcapacity to employ highly educated and trained people to vehicle for citizens' voice in policy issues. Non-profits canmaximum advantage in the workplace. However, our indus- also strengthen new programs backed by government bytrial andeducational systems, the guiding principles of which- placing them squarely in the hands of the local community.were formed in the early years of the 20th century and were We anticipate that all major line agencies in the federalhighly successful for a long time, are now outmoded and government will be staffed with individuals committed toindeed harmful in responding to national needs. working in partnership with non-profits. The first third of the book persuasively establishes the cred- [Cohen, T. (1992, November 15) Leaders expected to lean onibility of the premise. The middle third is devoted to develop- non-profits The News & Observer, Raleigh, NC, 1F, 3F.1 ing pragmatic blueprints for reconstructing our institutions involved in education and training, where education and Implications training are clearly much more than just schooling in the The new political environment provides an unprecedentedminds of the authors. The final third of the book looks opportunity to participate in the research and development oftowards the future and explores some strategies. social policy. Higher education should find government

12 40 On the Horizon Vol 1 Number 3 February 1993 All institutions of our society come under the authors' scru-program will watch you do all that, creating something that tiny, higher education included. The authors are critical of thethe manual calls a script, then it allows you to assign a name lower than desirable standards of admission to institutions ofto the script and put that name in a menu of standard reports, higher learning, and make the suggestion that these low in about the same amount of time it just took you to read about standards are responsible, in part, for the poccperformance&ii, dr kis: The of FdeMaker differs from its K through 12. They argue that admission standards must bepredecessors in its ability to show you a clear listing of the raised and present provocative discussion related to thiselements of the script, permitting you to edit any of the issue. elements in a programming environment so intatitive that I highly recommend this book for anyone interested inHyperCard truly pales in comparison. acquiring an integrated view of the educational challenges facing U.S. society. The book is well written and veryBut Is It Relational? tradable. Documentation is thorough. And it dramaticallyMost people with whom I speak have a vague notion about demonstrates why the words "learning" and "working" havethe meaning of relational that can be paraphrased as "If you become synonymous as we move into the 21st century. have two databases with something in common, such as a mailing list of donors and a separate list of the amounts the donors gave last year, but with no addresses, you can use the relational feature to generate a Christmas-card list of the high rollers." If that is what you want, FileMaker will deliver. There are far more ambitious meanings of relational that would be difficult or impossible for FileMaker to achieve, TOOLS such as updating two different files simultaneously. If these more ambitious uses are part of your plans, they may be FileMaker Pro 2.0 achieved via Apple Events, a major operating system breakthrough so loudly heralded and so little used in practice, that The mailing label on this newsletter was produced withone is inclined to believe that Apple should have called them FileMaker Pro 2.0, a new/old program that is the best reason"non-events." Still, talk to Claris technical support; they'll be yet to overrome any aversion to databases that may still lingermarvelously helpful and candid about what the program can from earlier exposure to dBase and its ilk. FileMaker has beenand cannot do in practice. around for years, so long that some enterprising paleantolo- gist of programming could doubtless find its genetic antecen- The program is virtually self-documenting; just ask it and it dents on the original Apple. But today itruns on the Macintoshwill print out a list of all fields and their formulas, or a list of and on the PC under Windows 3.0 and later. It's prepro-all scripts and their contents. If your glass is never half empty grammed to produce any of dozens of varieties of Avery and always half full, this is good news, because it means you labels. can borrow the best features of your earlier work. For example, if you've gone to a lot of effort to create a sophisticated I shouldn't dwell on label production, but we need to faze theset of reports in one database, and some complex formulas in fact that that is one of the most frequent reasons for purchas- another, you can type and point and click directly from the ing database software, and the difficulty of using mostprinted-out documentation and produce your hybrid. If, on databases is the reason that there are so many expensivethe other hand, you are inclined to begin your wishful mailing programs out there. Labels are, of course, just a tiny thinking before you've even torn the shrinkwrap from the part of FileMaker's repertoire. box, you'll wonder why field definitions from several differ- Bazk when I was a hospital marketing type, I produced aent files can't just be imported into a new one. Ask Claris and heart-petient registry with an earlier, somewhat harder-to-they will give ycu excellent reasons why it is next to impos- use version of FileMaker in about a week. Clinical researchsible, and I suspect that they will continue to do so until they databases are notoriously difficult because the elements,release the version that has the capability. Claris gave me a such as physician names, procedure codes, acceptable ranges,number of good reasons why they haven't filled yet another abbreviations and diagnostic categories, change constantly.glaring (I think) need, the absence of any real graphing The beauty of FileMaker even then, and one of its trulyability. I get around this shortcoming by using the Repeat() outstanding features today, is that a programming tyro can function with a font like Zapf Dingbats. If you want to learn incorporate all those changes without the eye-rolling andhow, drop me e-mail at [email protected]. But if teeth-grinding that ordinarily characterize the task. You canyou want real graphing, you'll need to link FileMaker to a ask FileMaker to watch you produce a report by findinggraphing spreadsheet like Excel or Resolve (not difficult, but certain records (say, all patients who died during open-hearttedious by comparison to its otherwise intuitive and pleasant surgery) sorting them by a particular criterion (say, theinterface) in order to get pictures of those results. surgeon's 11) code) and summarizing the results in a report In an environmental scanning setting where multiple people (say, by physician, in rank order by mortality rate.) The might be simultaneouey entering abstracts of articles into a February 1993 On the Horizon Vol. 1 Number 3 single database, a network would seem to be a reasonablewhen he proclaims that " ...the American public's knowl- solution. If you have two Macs of almost any vintagelinkededge of science is deplorable ..." and he argues that to the same laser printer, all you need is a coupleof copies ofengineering and science education must become a national Filemaker and you have a networked database withcompletepriority." Lester Thurow in his recent best-selling book Head file-sharing. No further software is needed. Any combinationTo Head suggests that " . . . educational reform must be greatly of Macs and PCs can be a networked FileMaker system,butemphasized if the U.S. is to reverse its slide" and persuasively PCs will need networking hardware and software. argues that ". ..the future belongs to the nations whose citizens are best prepared for it." And fmally, Ray Marshall Room does not permit me to dwell on all thefeatures.and Marc Tucker in their hard-hitting new book entitled FileMaker can store pictures, sounds and even full-motionThinking for a Living provide convincing evidence that video. Its greatest shortcoming is its speed, especially across"learning" and "working" have become synonymous in the capability, say in a a network. If you are looking for that lexicon of modern society. multi-machine order entry or survey environment, you'll want to make sure that you have the computinghorsepowerThe implications of all of the above issues for higher educa- to supercharge FileMaker's performance. Butin an institu-tion must be understood in order that institutions of higher tional research environment, on onethree machines, File-teaming can chart their paths to maintain, and indeed improve Maker will more upon, their current position of than satisfy. strength. In con- FileMaker Pro 2.0 ing and working have be- trast to our K- (Windowsand 12 system, Macintosh) con*-synonymous in the lexicon which is gener- of modern society.'Albers ally acknowl- Claris Corporation edged to be 5201 Patrick Henry falling behind Drive similar schooling systems in many other industrialized coun- Santa Clara CA 95052 tries, the U.S. is thought by many to have the best system for higher education. It continues to be the envy of the world. But (408) 727-9054 lest we get complacent because of this high regard for higher education in the U.S., let's look at what happens if we choose to stay with the status quo. We will continue to loseground in math, science and technological development. We will continue to be ineffective in helping our K through 12 education system improve (educating better teachers, raising ad- COMMENTARY mission standards, etc.). We will contAue to be inefficient in awarding baccalaureate degrees (two thirds of the enrollees Global competitiveness and higher in four years institutions fail to get one in 6 years!). Nothing education is so good that it can't be improved. We must discipline ourselves to change in the positive spirit of "continuous Walter Albers, Albers Systems, Inc. improvement: How is a discipline, a policy, of continuous improvement of As we move into the "post industrial period" or the "Age developed? One suggestion is to employ the techniques of Aquarius" or the Information age" or the "age of global Total Quality Managementmbio.Goal-setting, bench- competition," whatever you want to call it, with all of the marking, identifying and listening to the "voice of the cus- attendant rapid change, chaos and upheaval, one thing ap- tomer," mobilizing for optimum performance, and a building pears quite clear. Higher education is goingtot..-;; a focal point 21stof a set of performance measures to assess goal attainment, all of the requirements of the U.S. as we move toward the parts of TQM, are not sacred in the application to business century. organizations or governmental agencies. These very same The preceding statement is reinforced daily in contemporarymethodologies may apply to institutions of higher learning as literature and the various media. Just a few examplesfollow.well. vice Patrick M. Callen, professional educator and former Another suggestion for developing a discipline of continuous president of the Education Commission of the States, writesimprovement involves a focus on educational productivity "Higher education is not going to be exempt from the eco- and how such productivity can be improved. Higher educa- nomic, technical and demographic pressures that are causing reconsider how totion is under mounting pressure to monitor, and increase, the every type of institution we have to time that faculty spend in the classroom. There is a sense that organize itself to get the job done." Carl Sagan, a prominent this is an issue whose time has come. Institutions are going to scientist and author, echos the sentiments of many others 14 0-t) On the Horizon Vol. 1 Number 3 February 1993 have to mobilize for increased productivity. But certainlyin the UK, but also in Australia, Hong Kong and South Africa. increasing faculty time in the classroom is not the onlyThe most recent institution to adopt such an approach is response to the productivity issue. There are questions aboutUNISA (pilot scheme begun November 1992), an educa- curricular reform and how well the curricula meet the currenttional organization servingdistance learning students through- and future needs of society. In other words, productivityout the whole of southern Africa. improvements come not only from improving efficiencies,The second development is the increasing cost of teaching but also improving effectiveness.And we need to remember and research; a concurrent trend where decisions are increas- that in many cases one won't work without the other! More-ingly dependent on the attitudes and preferences of sponsors. over, the public and many politicians are more interestedFor example, Cambridge University's most recent (January these days in the quality of instruction and educational1993) funding appeal letter quotes the cost of a single DNA outcomes than in a simple quantitative measure of time spent sequencer for the Brain ResearchProject as £60,000 ($95,000) teaching. This is an example of the "voice of the customer" and the cost of an electron microscope complex as ten times that must be heard. that amountneither one an item in the "big league" of, say, College and university leaders should form alliances witha nuclear particle accelerator. The same appeal also urges the industry. This recommendation is proposed with the follow-importance of protecting that University's academic freedom ing thoughts in mind: by raising these sums from its own alumni, a clear indication that the Development Office fears the consequences of hav- industry has been a leader in the application of TQM and ing to seek external funding for such projects. could provide practical guidance to higher education in the implementation of TQM techniques; The third development is the increasing proportion of research and teaching activity directly commissioned by na- industry depends on productivity improvements for tional governments. This trend in broad scope includes a survival and has much pragmatic experience to share; movement towards detailed accountability of academic insti- industry's recent "right-sizing" efforts in order to gettutions to government funding providers, in terms of both "lean and mean" may have some application in higher educa-efficiency (value-for-money unit cost performance indication; tors) and effectiveness (measurements of research or teaching quality performance to externally laid-down standards). and finally, industry can prove to be a great resource for The U.S. quality assessment movement, involving not only identifying the "voice of the customer" for higher education. the regional accrediting bodies, but funding bodies of such Academic freedom endangered? states as Tennessee, slightly antedated the development of the UK's Academic Audit Unit and the subsequent Higher Chris de Winter-Hebron Education Quality and Funding Councils. Parallel developments have since taken place, inter alia, in the Netherlands, Academic Director, H + E Associates, Belgium, Hong Kong, and Australia, and are currently under Ltd. discussion in such nations as Germany and South Africa. The detail into which constraints go should not be underesti- Although some of the root ideas of academic freedom go back mated. The HE Funding Council for England currently em- to the humanists of the 16th Century Renascence, the concept ploys no fewer than 64 accountability performance indicators, in its present form is essentially a 19th Century one. Forincluding such detailed items as departmental telephone research, it turns on Von Humboldt's 1803 defmition of thecosts per full-time equivalent student. The same body's research scholar's work as being conducted "im Freiheit andquality performance survey is set to examine all aspects of Einsainkeit" (` in individual freedom and solitude'). For teach- instruction, subject-group by subject-group, including class- ing, it turns on Newman's defense in The Idea of a Universityroom visitation by teams of the Council's officers using a of the right if the individual scholar to decide freely what andformal scoring sheet. The Belgian scheme is governed by a how to teach. Both of these ideas assume the existence ofdetailed set of Ministry regulations that went through no independent higher education structures organized to pro-fewer than 16 separate draft revisions. The Australian Higher videasocially protected environment within which indi-Education Council's National Quality Assurance Committee vidual scholars can work unconstrained by social, economic,(the most recent example of this trend) not only has power to or political constraints. conduct similar interviews and visits, but can also make use This assumption is threatened by several developments.of existing nationally based research and statistical data in reaching its conclusions. First, research and teaching are increasingly team activities, constraining the freedom of individual decisions. For ex-The second new feature of this trend is the increasing devel- ample, team research projects continue to provide an increas-opment by various national governments of national strategic ing proportion of submissions to both British and Australian missions for higher education, to which individual institu- research councils. The use of project teams in higher educa-tions are expected to conform. Many of these are to be found tion curriculum design is now becoming widespread not onlyin the newly developing nations. A paper by David Chou to 15 Jr On the Horizon Vol. 1 Number 3 February 1993 the 1992 ISSED seminar in Czechoslovakia outlined such aI am not merely referring to corporations endowing chairs or strategy (linked to manpower planning) for Taiwan. Lagoscourses, nor am I referring to the legislationin UK for University's agriculture department as early as 1983 wasexamplethat has made colleges and universities ever more required by the Nigerian government to service the "Feedclosely resemble businesses in status and character (though The Nation" scheme. Zimbabwe and Botswana both havethese are part of the trend too). I am rather referring to a trend national strategic missions for their (single) national univer-towards establishing entire institutions of higher education as sities involving servicing national development. And onlydivisions of major corporations, with the avowed intent of last October, in a SAARDHE conference keynote address,training, educating and conducting research for the Jonathan Godden, the ANC's deputy education spokesman,corporations' direct benefit and in accordance with their proposed a policy of "diversified higher education institu- agenda(s). This trend is now remarkably widespread interna- tions" in which selected South African universities wouldtionally. To name only a few examples, the U.S. has Motorola have an official University andEm- international bry-Riddle Aero- academic role, nautical whileothers ...there is simply no way that University; in Brit- would have a [these trends] can be reconciled ain we have the specific nation- British Gas John building mis- either with scholarship....or with Dyde Training Col- sion. lege; Germany has teaching Material and methods the Bundespost As development freely selected by the individual Fachhochschule needs become Telekom Berlin; more urgent and lecturer."de Winter-Hebron South Africa has funds scarcer, we the UnidataCorpo- may expect fur- rate College. Other ther countries to instances have also been reported recently, including some go down this more prescriptive road. Already India's Unitv2r- from Japan. sity News has run an influential article by AL. Mitra (Presi- dent of the Association of Indian Universities) calling for the All these trends may well produce a system of higher educa- business education sector to become a national educationaltion more suited to world social and economic conditions in development resource. the early 21st Century than anything that has gone before. But there is simply no way that they can be reconciled either with The third of the new featuresalmost, indeed, a new trend in scholarship pursued "im Freiheit and Einsamkeit" or with itselfis the steady move of higher education round the teaching material and methods freely selected by the indi- world into the hands of business corporations. vidual lecturer.

From the Editor, from pl $60 per year, licensees may reproduce and distribute up to 20 copies of On the Horizon within their organizations. If you other tools and techniques of anticipatory management, con-want a site license, please let me know. sider attending the global change seminar cosponsored by the Finally, congratulations to Sylvia Pierce, Fayetteville (NC) UNC-CH Program in Educational Leadership and King Technical College and to Megan Koch, UNC graduate stu- Alfred's College, Winchester, this summer on their campus, dent, for being the first readers to have an abstract selected for one hour from London. Please call or write me for details. publication. Let their examples be inspirational! Your contri- A number of people have inquired about site licenses tobutions are welcome. Remember to provide a copy of the reproduce and distribute copies of On the Horizon to plan- article you abstract and full bibliographic citation along with ning committee members or other campus leaders. Pleasea statement of implications. know that we have worked out a policy on site licenses. For

16 "Oa*gr.: t ESSAY: EDUCATION IN THE INFORMATION SOCIETY Peter C. Bishop, Chair birth. Likewise, industrialism introduced fossil Studies of the Future energy and machine power and was associated, University of Houston-Clear Lake in its later stages, with the creation of individual rights, the Protestant religion and Education prepares students for the future.the democratic nation-quite an impressive list, Educational leaders committed to achievingand all in barely 200 to 300 years. their mission must have a clear vision of the future that compels their organizations to breakSimilar changes should accompany the shift with the past and to offer an education truly infrom industrial to information society. New touch with the future. industriesaredevelopingcomputers, software, communications, media, professional One of the most common visions of the futureservices,healthcare.Asaresult, is the coming of the information society.manufacturing employment is declining, Daniel Bell coined the term "post-industrialparticularly in the U.S., as workers move to society." Alvin Toffler popularized the conceptinformation and service jobs. The world is now in Future Shock and in The Third Wave; andconnected with communication links, forming John Naisbitt picked up the theme in the 1980sa truly global society. in two editions of Megatrends. But where is the change in the form of the The idea is simple, yet profound. Civilizationeconomy and government? Capitalism and was transformedfirstby agriculturaldemocracy, far from being replaced, are technology,thenby agcendant. How much change is there in industrial technology; we family, religion, the status are now experiencing the oftheindividualin- effectsof information I 0 society? It may be too technologytransforming early to tell, or maybe * 11 I work, politics,popular another form of culture, religion, family I information societyis life and much more. appearing instead. Change is afoot, but not Table 1 lists some of the onthegrandscale key changes in the shift from agricultural toadvocated by Toff ler and Naisbitt. industrial society. The economy shifted its focus from food production to manufacturedI propose a more modest form of the goods. Serfs became factory workers whoinformation society that seems more consistent worked for money and thus earned their placewith the changes that are actually taking place. in society rather than having it ascribed them atThis form is not a replacement of industrial society, but a different form of industrial society. The alternative form is based on the Table 1. Transformations Brought About by Two long-wave theories of Joseph Schumpeter and Technologies Nicholai Kondratieff. They found a pattern in Category Agricultural Industrial industrial prices, which marked a 50-60 year Technology Technology cycle of boom-and-bust capitalism. (Karl Marx Product Food Goods had found the same cycle and used it as the Occupation Serf ractory worker basis for his forecast that capitalism Status Ascribed (fixed)Achieved (mobile) Exchange Food Money Continues on p 2 would self-destruct under cycles of increasingfiber and wireless communication, are now magnitude.) being laid. Once they are in place, along with easy-to-use, intelligent interfaces, productive Each of the historical technologies was so farsoftware, and computers that can talk and superior to the technology it replaced that itlisten, then the coming boom will be upon us. touched off a wave of economic growth basedIn the meantime, we are left to suffer the on rising productivity. Rail replaced the horseburdens of transition. drawn carriage for overland- transportation. Without it, the American West could neverOne of those burdens is the need to adopt a have been settled. Steel replaced iron, andnew set of valuesforthisphase of skyscrapers rose in the cities. Oil replacedindustrialism. The energy of society was coal, and the giant industries of the 20thdevoted to sizebig projects like the Alaska century were bornoil, auto, aerospace, andpipeline and Apollo program. The more energy chemicals. Look at the Fortune 20. Most of theyou burned, the more money you made. 'The largest U.S. firms today are from those fournew technology is small, not big. It values ind.ustrial sectors. The superhighway system,precision over power, intelligence over brute the aircraft carrier, the Saturn V rocket, andforce. In order to exploit that technology, we plasticfibers were the result of theirmust down-size, conserve, recyclesqueeze dominance. Will they be productivity from every on the list in 30 years? ounce, every minute, every Most definitely not. WeDoing what you are told is BTU. We aretoldto will have oil companies coordinate with others, for a long time, but theynot a valued behavior in work in teams, think before willnotleadthethe information society. acting,planbefore economic growth of theFiguring out what to do is. building. The term for all next wave. Computers, thisis quality the telecommunications, Coming to work on time movement that is media, and professionaland following a schedule istransforming every aspect servicesthose are thenot required in the of American business and industries of the next soon American life itself. wave. That is where theinformation society. Using gains in productivity areyour time for the greatest This value shift translates being made today, layingbenefit is. Doing your job intoa change of the the foundation for the requirements for education. next phase of economicFsolated from coworkers is Publiceducationwas prosperity. not effective in the developed during the early information society. days of the older form of If microelectronics offers industrial society. Factories such promise for theWorking together in needed workers. The only information society, whydiverse and flexible teams availablesupplywere do we have the economic displacedfarmersand problems we do? Theis. Characteristic after plantation workers. But answer is that we are notcharacteristic, the these people were hardly thereyet.Prosperityinformation society effective factory workers. requires more than the They did not show up on invention. It also requiresrequires knowledge and time; they did not do what the application of thoseskills that are different they were told; they could inventions to everydayfrom the factory society. not read simple instructions lifea result that takes or write intheir daily considerably longer. The Bishoplogbook. They were skilled fundamentalsofthe atfarm work but not automobile had been invented by 1910, but itfactory work. The schools, created for this wasn't until after World War II that thepurpose, engineered their transformation automobile entered everyone'slife. Themarvelously. transformation required not just automobiles, but paved roads, maps amd signs, serviceBut will these same graduates be prepared for stations, and superhighways. The infrastructurethe information society? Doing what you are for the information society is an important steptold is net a valued behavior in the information in transformation and it is not yet in place. The superhighways of the future, high capacity Cominues on p 4 Page 2 From the Editor We have instituted a procedure whereby our As you will note, we are continuing to experimentinternational subscribers can receive On the with our format. In this edition, we have changedHorizon via Internet. U.S. subscribers may also our cover and have added an issues managementreceive this service sending Bernard Glassman, section, calledThe Situation Room.Richardour managing editor anu in-house computer guru, Heydinger, who has been involved with an issuese-mail to his Internet address: Bernard_Glass- management program at the University [email protected]. Minnesota for some time, begins with an explanation of issues management and illustratesA note about costs: We instituted an individual Minnesota's use of the tool vis-'a-vis the animalsubscription rate of $19.50 for people who do not rights issue. have access to institutional budgets. (This rate covers a bit more than the cost of printing and We are also experimenting with our STEEPmailing, but not much more.) The institutional rate section. In this and in subsequent editions, Asteriosof $38.50 or the site license rate of $60 enables us Kefalas, Professor of Management attheto expand the subscriber base via marketing to University of Georgia, will summarize a number ofmembers of various professional organizations. trendsinthe economic sector and their implications. He uses an essay format, as opposedA word about sitelicenses. A number of totheabstracts-of-articles-with-implicationssubscribers have sent $60 checks to "upgrade" to a format, as is the case for the other sectors in thissite license in order to reproduce and distribute On section. the Horizon to their colleagues. If you want to upgrade, please call us and we will invoice you for We are in the process of appointing editors for eachthe difference in what you initially paid and $60. of the STEEP sectors. 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pn the Horizon is published October, December, February, April, and June by the Institute for Academic and :F)rofessional Development, School of Education, the University of North Carclina at Chapel Hill. For more 'information, write James L. Morrison, Editor, On the Horizon, CB3500 Peabody Hall, University of North Carolina, :Chapel Hill, NC 27599 (phone 919 966-1354; Internet [email protected] Editorial Board

James L. Morrison, Editor, University of North Carolina Richard B. Heydinger, University of Minnesota James H. Heller, Associate Editor, Duke University Peter Jonas, Cardinal Stritch College Bernard Glassman, Managing Editor and Tools George Keller, University of Pennsylvania Columnist, Pragmatix;InformationDesign Lowell Lueck, Western Illinois University, Blanche Fried Arons, Editorial Assistant Lina Lupica, Early Signals William Ashley, Ashley & Associates Michael Marion, Editor, Future Survey Walter A. Albers, Jr., Albers Systems Inc. Donna McGinty, University of Georgia Ctr for Cont. Ed Kuni Beasley, Tyndale Theological Seminary Gerald W. McLaughlin, Virginia Polytechnical Inst. Peter Bishop, University of Houston at Clear Lake & State U. Wayne I. Boucher, Benton International Thomas V. Mecca, Piedmont Technical College Arnold Brown, Weiner, Edrich & BroWn, Inc. Mark Meredith, University of Colorado-Boulder Lu Anne Corvelli, United Way of America Magdalena Rood Southwest Educational Dev. Lab. K. Patricia Cross, University of California, Berkeley Frans A. Van Vught, University of Twente Chris de Winter-Hebron, H+E Associates Ltd. (The Netherlands) (England) Robert Wilkinson, Pittsburgh State University George S. Dodge, Office, Chief Army Reserve George Wilkinson, The Wilednson Group E. Raymond Hackett, College Information Systems Ian Wilson, SRI International

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bi society. Figuring out what to do is. Coming tothat computers provide instantaneous, split- work on time and following a schedule is notsecond processing and immediate access of required in the information society; using yourreal world data and information, and in another time for the greatest benefit is. Doing your jobsense, that computers generate a three- isolated from coworkers is not effective in thedimensional simulated environment that is information society; working together insufficiently like actual experience that the diverse and flexible teams is. Characteristicparticipant feels that he or she is really there. after characteristic, the information societyRather, the term, virtual, comes from an earlier requires knowledge and skills that are differentterm, virtual memory, which described the from the factory society. process for making a computer act as though it had more storage capacity than it in fact did. The effective schools of the future will do more than lust change According to John A. their curriculumto Byrne, "Today's joint include computer lit- ventures and strategic eracy and other basicIn rriany ways, the virtual alliances may be an skills.The schoolscorporation will distobey all the early glimpse of the themselves must learn business organization to work according torules of organizational design of thefuture: The the values of the newtextbooks of the past. It will Virtual Corporation. information technology have no central office, no It's a temporary net- centers of empower- work of companies, ed professionals work-organization chart, no even erstwhile rivals, ing to achieve a com-hierarchy, and no vertical that come together mon vision and ambi-integration. Its strengths will bequickly to exploit fast- tious goals, graduating changing opportuni- skilled and satisfiedpower, fluidity, and flexibility. ties." students. Schools must plan, execute the plan Companies of tomor- effectively, and efficiently graduate studentsow can be expected to share costs, skills, and with the technology transformation knowledgemarket access, with each company contrib- and skills. Schools must devise new measuresuting its key capabilities or core competencies of their results and continuously improve theirto the venture without forming permanent processes. alliances or merging through either friendly means or hostile takeovers. These are the tenets of the new wave of change in Americathe quality movement. It is noIn many ways, the virtual corporation will coincidence that quality and informationdisobey all the rules of organizational design technology are adopted simultaneously. Thetextbooks of the past. It will have no central qualityprinciplesrequireforethought,office, no organization chart, no hierarchy, and planning, precise execution, and an appropriateno vertical integration. Its strengths will be system to measure resultsall informationpower, fluidity, and flexibility. Says John processes. Companies and schools that learn toSculley, Chairman of Apple Computer Inc., operate according to this new philosophy will"Ten or twenty years from now, you'll see an thrive in the future. Those stuck in the oldexplosion of entrepreneurial industries and paradigm are doomed to fail. companies that will essentially form the real virtual corporations. Tens of thousands of virtual organizations may come out of this." The risks include companies' dropping the SOCIAL ball, leaving their virtual partners in the lurch, riskingproprietarytechnologyand information, and losing management control The Virtual Corporation critical to corporate success. The use of the word virtual in the concept ofGlobal competition and fast-paced technology how tomorrow's corporationswillberequiremoreinnovation,speed,and configuredistaken t'rom the computerknowledge than companies can manage alone. industry, but is not related to the computerIn order for the virtual corporations to be term virtual reality, which means, in one sense, that computers provide instantaneous, split- Continues on p 5 Page 4 viable, Byrne says, "changes in antitrust policymore comfortable with the technology and and intellectual-property laws may beimprove the course in the future. [Shaeffer, J. necessarytospur cooperation amongM. & Farr, C. W. (1993, April). Evaluation: A companies." Additionally, a computing super-key piece in the distance education puzzle. highway, a national infrastructure linkingTechnological Horizons in Education, 20 (9), computers and machine tools across the nation,pp. 79-82. Submitted by Sylvia Pierce, must be in place before Fayetteville (NC) Tech- optimal communication, nical Community College] whichisessentialto virtual corporations, can In general, the more Implications be achieved. [Byrne, J. A. effectively we create the (1993, February 8). The virtual university, the moreTwo trends, the virtual virtual corporation. Busi- corporation and distance ness Week, pp. 98-103. prepared our students will learning, are inevitably Submittedloy Linda'be for the virtual going to converge in a Blanton,Fayettevillecorporation. numberofpossible (NC) Technical Commun- combinations. One of the ity College] most obvious is the virtual university. If the campus is an electronic metaphor rather than a physical Distance Education place, then its various classrooms and learning resource facilities need not be those of a single institution. In many respects, when students sit Audio teleconferencing, interactive c,r two-wayin a library on campus or at home and search video, and other electronic delivuy systemsthe catalogs of the National Library of are being used more and more frequently toMedicine, Ben Gurion University and a reach distance learners. The three componentscommercially provided news service, they to be considered in selecting delivery systemshave already entered a virtual library. When are programming, faculty competence inthey download, over the Internet, self-study dealing with non-traditional education, andsoftware developed by faculty at another evaluation of the success of student learning.university, they are even closer to the virtual The University of Wyoming has utilizeduniversity. The challenge for universities, as it distance learning for several years andis for any other institution, will be whether contends that the success of the programthey can approach virtuality with the required depends on faculty development, class-by-skills and commitments. Among these are: class feedback forms, midterm feedback Task specific communication and session, and end-of-term evaluations by both coordination: This is the ability col- faculty and students. lectively and rapidly to establish a vision of the task at hand, to understand the abilities With respect to faculty development, teaching and limitations of all participating in- via technology is different from face-to-face dividuals and institutions, and to establish teaching. Much additional effort must go into responsibilities in such a way that each set recruitment of and pre-course discussions with of strengths is used best. faculty, workshops and seminars that teach Trust and autonomy: Bureaucracy and instructional design and facilitation of distance the unwillingness to delegate ,,,uthority will learning programs, and on-going coaching sink any virtual arrangement, because sessions for instructors. decision times will increase exponentially with respect to the number of participating Systematic formative evaluation feedback must institutions. be gathered to monitor the distance learning Customer centeredness: Once the virtual progress of students early in the course and institution is a commonplace for the user, throughout the course in order to make competitiveness will dictate thatall necessary adjustments. Small groups at participants make the user's satisfaction distance learning sites provide assessments at uppermost. The student or customer will no the beginning of each session, with a more longer be a captive audience/market. extensive midterm session, to keep learning on Rapid, credible evaluation: This is as track. important to the virtual corporation as it is to the distance learning program. For both, Summative end-of-term evaluations by faculty and students are used to help them become Continues on p 6 Page 5 it is the measure of quality and of customer satisfaction, and it is the most effective basis for continued cooperation and TECHNOLOGY coordination. Federal Science and In general, the more effectively we create the virtual university, the more prepared Technology Policy in our students will 13efor the virtual Transition corporation. We should, however, recognize several The need to examine and restructure federal questions. If campuses become elemonic policy related to science and technology has metaphors housed in multiple institutions, become a high priority issue with the Clinton who sets the standards? Who grants the administration. This new sense of urgency in degree? What kind of Washington has its roots degree? in two major areas of .the general public and change that are taking Other implications: inour policVmakers seem place: first, the U.S. must the virtualuniversitycomatose when it comes toadjusttotherapidly students can tap into the emerging global economy ongoing discussion ofunderstanding our physicalin which compe-tition senior researchers andinfrastructure. It is a dependsstronglyon scholars,andmaychallenge to higher technological competency; contributetothese and second, the end of the discussions. Will thiseducation to develop cold war and the demise clarify or further cloudimproved approaches to of the Soviet Union have theresearchversuseducating our upcoming precipitated t h e teac hing controversy? conversionof R&D Too, in virtualleaders about the society'sfunding from defense- universities boundariesinfrastructure in order that related goals to peacetime- are even morefuture decisions and policyrelatedgoals.Joseph permeable;smallre- Coates, one of America's search teams uncon-can be made from a- leadingtechnological nected(orbarelybackground of true forecasters, states that "the connected via adjunct time has never been better appointments) andknowledge and or more appropriate for therefore unencumberedunderstanding rather than business and industry to by bureaucratic regu-the false perceptions and createan unequivocal lations, may function constituentbasefor more innovatively andmyths underlying today's radical changes in federal efficiently than seniordecisions and policy. policy toward science and research staffs within the Albers technology." university. How will established institutions Coates goes on to outline respond to, take a strawman agenda of fire ids? short-term actions and specific initiatives that advantist these would, in Ks opinion, facilitate some of the radical change required. Among these are -.111111. proposals for (a) scientific and technological . training.for government decision-makers, (b) the quick appointment of a Presidential science advisor, (c) the formation of a science advisory committee, (d) the formation of a National Foundation for Technology parallel to the National Science Foundation, and (e) an immediate restnicturing of key federal science agencies. Whether they agree with him or not. Coates urges the business community to

Continues on p 7 Page 6 promote their own proposals to". . . least to what degree restoration is required. relentlessly push the new Administration toThe fact is that,just a few short years ago, for bring about the necessary technology changescitizens and pohcymakers alike, the concept of for the health of the nation." [Coates, J. S.infrastructure was vague and uninteresting. (1993, January/ February). Science andAnd here we are today promoting expenditures technology issues/ opportunities for the newin the neighborhood of $20 billion a year to U.S. administration. Research Technologyheal our ailing highways, sewers, energy Management, pp. 7-9.] distribution systems, airports, and railways. When expenditures as large as these are Implications contemplated, some individuals are stimulated to carry out pretty serious analyses in order to Although the message above was directed totest the justification for such expenditures. business and industrial leaders, it is clearly anHeywood. Sanders presents persuasive arg- appropriate message for uments that what are per- leaders in higher edu- ceived as infrastructure cation as well. Contem- problems are myth. The key porary U.S. society leoksHow long can universitiespoint raised by Sanders, to its institutions of higherafford not to downsize? however, is how little we learningnot onlyto Most university know about ourinfra- provide educational com- structure, both from the petence in scientific andadministrators will economic and from the technological training ofcontend that they have technological perspectives. its citizenry, but also toalready done it. They will [Sanders, Heywood T. perform creative and in- (1993,Winter/Spring). What novative fundamental re-say, 'Look at our faculty infrastructure crisis? T he searchthat feeds thenumbers. We have not Pubic Interest, pp. 3-18.] scientific and technolog-hired anybody new for the ical food chains. Much of Implications theresearch doneatlast three years. We aren't institutionsof highereven replacing our retiringIt appears that one area learning is strongly de-faculty. We are teaching of science and technology pendent on funding from that has 1.)een neglected government and industry.the same fiumber of by higher education in Thus leaders in higherstudents with some 20% recent timesis how education have a greatfewer faculty. .Kefalas strongly dependent a stakeinwhatshape nation's well-:being is on nationalpolicytakes, thereliabilityand relative to science and stabilityofitsinfra- technology. It appears that higher educationstructure. The condition of highways,the has had little to contribute to the currentsafety of airports, the quality of drinking debates on this subject. This must change; thewater, and the environmentally-sound community of educational leaders must havedisposal of waste depend significantly on their voices heard in the formation of nationalthe science and technology that are policy regarding science and technology orbrought to bear on these issues. And yet else the role that higher education will play inthe general public and policymakers seem the emerging scheme of things could be muchcomatose when it comes to understanding less than desirable. physical infrastructure. It is a challenge to higher education to develop improved What's All This About approachestoeducating upcoming leaders about society's infrastructure in Infrastructure? order that future decisions and policy can be made from a background of true President Clinton's economic stimulus packageknowledge and understanding rather than included substantial expenditures for restoringthe false perceptions and myths under- the U.S. infrastructure and simultaneouslylying today's decisions and policy. creating new jobs. This is fine; the objectives[Editor's note: the Technology section was are noble. But some serious questions havewritten by Walter A. Albers, Jr., Albers been raised about whether or not theSystems Inc.] infrastructure really does need restoration, or at Page 7 may exceed $7.2 trillion by the end of the Clinton administration. By 1996 every ECONOMICS American adult and child will be in debt for some $28,000. Between the merchandise Economic Trends and Their deficit (Dl), and the national deficit, (D2), the U.S. is having to hustle for more foreign Impact on Higher Education money to balance its international atcounts, and to borrow more cash to keep its paychecks The decade of the 1980s found the entire worldfrom bouncing. in a period of slow-to-negative growth. After several decades of substantial growth rates,TheimplicationsofthisDouble D most developed countries began to experiencephenomenon for the society at large and for its either no-growth or at best, slow-growth ofrivate and public institutions are enormous. their economic activity. For all practical ereas private enterprises tend to respond purposes,OrganizationforEconomicquickly to, and even occasionally act in Development and Cooperation (OECD)anticipation of, the changes in the economic member states, the wealthiest 23 countries ofactivity, public institutions lag behind and the world, crawled at a meager annual growthmost of the time resist any adaptation to the rate of 2%. changing environment. Whereas business enterprises were downsizing in response to The United States as the largest economic unitslowed growth and even shrinkage in the of the world, with a GDP of $5.6 trillion,economy, institutions of higher education enjoys the lion's share of the world's $16refused to consideritas a permanent trillion economic product. The world's richestphenomenon. country is also the world's largest consumer market. Americans use and consume greatIndustry's responses to high-gro- vth conditions quantities of products made in other counties.in the post WWII era began by adding large By the same token, every year the /est of thenumbers to the hourly labor force. Large world uses and consumes great quIntities ofnumbers of hourly workers required large products made in the U.S.A. Every year thenumbers of supervisors (i.e., people who tell U.S. government collects large quantities ofworkers what to do). Large numbers of money from its citizens and corporations whilesupervisors required equally large numbers of laying out large sums of money to its citizenslower level managers and so on all the way to in the form of wages, the top of the hierarchy. salaries, and transfer Thus, the 50's and 60's paymentssuchasFive year strategic plans that saw a phenomenal increase pensions and other inthe volume of the forms of assistance. are devoid of attempts to organizational hierarchy. foresee and understand the The top was populated The 1980s witnessed achanges in the social, with herds of A/Ps who phenomenon called the served the CEO. The mid- Double D phenom-technological, ecological, dle of the hierarchy was enon. In 1984 the U.S.political and economic bulging with thousands of turned from the world'senvironment are wasteful middle managers aimed at biggest creditor to the pleasing the VPs, and so world's biggest debtor.expenditures of finances, andon all the way down to the The country'sinsa-of faculty and administrators' bottom of the hierarchy. tiable appetite for con-time and precious resources. Private enterprises became sumption had to be sat- large, fat, inflexible dino- isfied by importing Kefalassaurs that dominated so- more and more fbreign ciety. goods and capital. The end result of this increase in imports was aThe 1980s ushered in the era of downsizing. continually growing merchandise trade deficitThis buzzword was invented by the media to that reached $170 billion a year. At the samedescribe the reversal of the process of growth time at home, government's ever growingand expansion that took place during two outlays could not be matched by government'sprevious decades. The first response to slow revenues. The end result was a huge nationalgrowth was automation aimed at replacing debt that approached the $1 trillion mark at the beginning of the Reagan administration and Continues on p 9 Page 8 hourly workers with machines. Automation lefttemporary inconvenience is a permnent supervisory and management personnelphenomenon, which even though long in the virtually intact, but without large workforces tomaking, was not foreseen by university oversee. As growth prospects remained slimadministrators or legislators. The former and profit margins began to disappear, industrypromised to do a better job in the future; the criticsturnedtheirsearchlightsonlatter promised to push for more support. The management. Suddenly everybody noticed thetime has come for universities to start learning unnecessary huge numbers of managers andwhile they are teaching. Universities must VPs. As the number of middle managersthemselves become learning organizations. In dwindled, VPs became obsolete. Firms beganother words, universities must learn to learn to close down one plant after another, causmgwhat their external environments are and how whole divisions to clisappear, taking corporatethey should adapt to their environments' VPs and hundreds of division heads with them.changing conditions. Five year strategic plans Slim, trim, lean and mean became thethat are devoid of attempts to fore...3e.z and attributes of excellent corporations. understand the changes inthesocial, technological, ecological,political and What about institutions of higher education? Ineconomicenvironmentarewasteful this environment, are these institutions immuneexpenditures of finances, and of faculty and to the epidemic of lean, mean, flexibleadministrators' time and precious resources. organizations? How long can universities afford not to downsize? Most universityA Demographic Tale administrators will contend that they have already done it. They will say, "Look at ourThe story of universities asleep at the switch faculty numbers. We have not hired anybodyserves well to illustrate our point. Universities new for the last three years. We aren't evenare systems that process human minds. The replacing our retiring faculty. We are teachingmore humans there are, the greater the need for the same number of students with some 20%mind-processing systems. The fewer minds fewer faculty." there arc, the less the need for mind-processing machines, called the ed- Faculty members ucation system. A quick are to universitiesFaculty members are to look back since the end of what lower the WWII will reveal that management staffuniversities what lower the growth of the number are to industry.management staff are to industry. of humans, called pop- Institutionsof ulation,mirrored the higher educationInstitutions of higher education growth of the economy. may have trim-may have trimmed their untenuredChildren who were born med their unten-rank-and-file faculty and some of became potential repro- ured rank-and- duction systems. It seems file faculty andtheir support staff, but a given that the more some oftheiradministrative staff have been left reproductionsystems support staff, butuntouched, and in some cases, there were, the more administrative humans would be born. staff have beenhave even increased. What's Thus a peculiar phe- leftuntouched,happening? nomenon began to appear 'and insome Kefalasthat might be called the cases, have even "double exponential self- increased. What's feeding-growth" machine. happening? More people produced more goods, which allowed more people to be One could perhaps think of at least threeproduced, thus creating a virtual circle, but scenarios. One scenario might be named thesoon to be turned into a vicious cycle. "False Alarm: Everything is O.K." scenario. A secondmightbethe"TemporaryFor the decade of the 1970s also was the Inconvenience: Budgetary Belt-Tightening"decade that ushered in the age of the pill. Birth scenario. A third scenario might be a "It's forrates dropped beiow 2% in most industrialized Real: A Demographic Tale" scenario. countries, bringing the number of childrenper family dangerously close to two, enough to The first two scenarios are, of course, fairy tales. There is no false alarm; the so-called Continuos on p 10 Page 9 satisfy. the zero-growth or steady state condition.In some countries, humansENVIRONMENT postponed their reproduction until later ages, or even avoided it all together. Countries likeGlobal Diplomacy West Germany grew negatively due to a very low birth rate, while other countries like theThroughout most of the 20th century, U.S. managed to maintain a slight increase indiplomats have concentrated on questions of their populations due to net immigration.political and economic relations among nation- However, institutions of higher education instates. As the century closes, a third set of United States were noticeably slow tointernational problems, those relating to the recognize these changes in the demographichealth of the planet, is coming to the fore. The scenery of the country. Although every yearthreatened depletion of Earth's ozone layer is a the Department of Labor was revising itsprime example of such challenges (other items estimates downward for population increases,on the new agenda include global warming, universities used their resources to advisedeforestation, species extinction, industry and government how to respond todesertification and soil erosion, and pollution upward estimates, adding staff and facultyof common resources). Ambassador Benedick, positions and continuing to build larger andthe chief US negotiator of the 1987 Montreal larger classrooms in anticipation of the hugeProtocol on Substances That Deplete the numbers of minds-to-be-processed. Ozone Layer, later revised in 1990, describes the negotiations and the protocol as "the Changesinanorganization'sexternalforerunner of an evolving global diplomacy, environment callfor changesinthethrough which nations accept common organization's strategy and structure. Theseresponsibility for stewardship of the planet." changes aim at aligning the organization'sSome lessons for this new diplomacy are: vision, mission, strategies and operational 1. Scientists must play an unaccustomed plans so that environmental constraints will be but major roleininternational observed, threatswill be avoided and environmental negotiations. opportunities will be capitalized on. Here are2.Governments may have to act while sixstrategiestousetoadapt tothe there is still scientific uncertainty, environment. We list balancing the risks and them here, but intend to costs of acting or not treat them in detail in acting. subsequent issues: * 3. Educating and mobi- I .60 . lizing public opinion 1.Think strategically, are essential to gen- globally and futur- erate pressure on hesi- istically. 1 S SO tant governments and 2.Restructure: create a private companies. flat and lean struc- 4. Strong leadership by ture. a major country can be 3.Empower faculty. . a significant force for 4.Use existing human developing consensus. assets to their max- 5. It may be desirable imum. . for a leading country or 5.Embrace information group of countries to technology. take preemptive protec- 6.Form strategic alli- tion measures in ad- ances; cooperate to I.S. vance ofaglobal compete. agreement. 41 6. Economic and struc- [The Economics section turalinequalitiesa- was written by A.G. Stell S" mong countries must Kefalas, Professor of be adequately reflected Management, University in any international of Georgia] regulatory regime. In the long run, the huge a n d growing

Continues on p 11 Page 10 populations of Less Developed substandard medical-waste incinerators at US Countries (LDCs) could undermine hospitals. Usually concentrated in populous effortstoprotecttheglobal urban areas, they spew tons of toxic emissions, environment including dioxin, heavy metals, and acid gases, 7.The effectiveness of an agreement is into the air, averaging 10 to 100 times more enhanced when it employs market per gram waste burned than emissions from incentives to stimulate technological well-controlled municipal waste incinerators. innovation. Hospital incinerators also leave large quantities of toxic ash that can contaminate surface water [Benedick, R.E. (1991). Ozone diplomacy:and ground water when dumped in landfills. New directions in safeguarding the planet. Cambridge, MA: Harvard U Press. AidaptedSwitzerland and Germany offer a better model from Future Survey Annual, 1992] for handling medical waste, sending it to regional incineration facilities with advanced More than 2.2 million tons of toxic garbageair-pollution control technologies. Both cross borders each year, with no end in sight.countries require complete manifests of Like drugs and arms, trafficking in hazard.oustransported wastes to insure that all medical waste has become big business for a new breedrefuse goes through the system. Small of "waste lords." Blocked by increasinggenerators of medical waste such as labs, regulation and local opposition to disposalnursing and funeral homes, and medical and sites, the stream of waste constantly searchesveterinary clinics, could also send their refuse for new outlets, usually poor communities andto regional treatment sites. [Hershkowitz, A. countries. Within the US, waste migrates to the(1990) Without a trace: Handling medical rural South; in the UK, from England to Wales.waste safely. Technology Review, 93(6), 35-44. The US is by far the greatest producer,Adapted from Future Survey Annual, 19921 generating 10 times as much hazardous waste as all of Western Europe, more than one ton ofImplications waste a year for each American. The US shipped 100,00 tons of hazardous waste abroadEnvironmental issues are complex problems in 1987, with the figure rising by 40% bythat span international boundaries. The 1989. Recent reports suggest the problem issolution to these problems will only come from out of control, and that the-EPA does not knowinterdisciplinary collaboration and inter- how much waste is exported. national discussion. Universities must continue to work toward trans-disciplinary collab- There is virtually no international mechanismoration, and not all are taking the lead in their to monitor the waste trade, much less police itcommunities. Politicians must learn to keep for violations. The Basel Convention of 1989,science separate from pork barreling, and must a treaty on the export of toxic waste, called forrely on experts for informed decisions on exporters to notify and receive permission from importers before any shipment may proceed. But LDCs have no mechanism to enforce provisions, and remain at the mercy of the First World. [Center for InvestigativePOLITICAL Reporting & Moyers, B. (1990). Global dumping ground: The international traffic in hazardous waste. Washington: Seven LocksCongressional Oversight Press. Adapted from Future Survey Annual, 1992 .] Congress has long voted money for influential legislators' pork barrel projects such as roads, The Contagious Hospital dams, and post offices. 'Then, almost without public notice, Congress extended pork barrel Medical waste has increased greatly in the pastpolitics to a new domain: science. The result of 10 years, partly because hospitals use morepork barrel funding of science has been chaotic disposable items, such as syringes, cutlery,and subject to political influence. Funds go to food trays, bedpans, and even linen. The publiceverything from support of scientists, to especially fears medical waste, such assupport of congressional whims, with little syringes washing up on beaches, but thesense of priorities. Congressional micro- likeliness of acquiring AIDS or hepatitis in thismanagement, not scientifically informed, way is very small. The real danger, which has received far less notice, stems from the 6,000 Continuos on p 12 Page 1 1 science over little science. and experienced advisors seems more important than ever. The challenge is to make Rather than assigning science allocation tothe advisory system con-tribute to effective Congress, Joseph Martino. an expert ongovernmentwithoutcreatingmore technology forecasting, bureaucratic clutter that agrees with Francis Crick, prolongs and complicates co-discoverer of DNA, decisions. Fair balance is that it is "far better for Congressional needed in the advisory research pro-grams to micromanagement, not system to find an effective have many sources ofscientifically informed, level of creative tension money, with a series of that will nurture debate mini-dictators to distribute freezes out innovative whileavoiding an it." Martino recommends ideas, and favors big entrenched old-boy additional programs such science over little science.network and the dangers asgreaterresearch of arrogance and support from industry, a irrelevance. [Smith, B. stronger patent system, L.R.(1992). The advisors: increased IJS savings rate, improved financialScientists in the policy process. Washington: accounting standards, more research supportThe Brookings Institution. Adapted from from privatefoundations, income taxFuture Survey, (1993, April)] deductions for private funding of research (paralleltodeductionsforcharitableImplications organizations) andtheeliminationof government actions that discourage support forOld-boy networks and pork barrel funding of research (e.g., the proposal to tax advertisingscience stifle innovation and ultimately lead to revenue for scholarly journals). [Martino, J.P.the corruption of the scientific enterprise. (1992) Science funding: Politics and porkScience flourishes in an environment of-open barrel. New Brunswick NJ: Transactiondebate and peer review. It is incumbent upon Publishers. Adapted from Future Survey,all institutions of higher learning to maintain a (1993, April)] climate of open debate and creative tension and to remain at arms length from the political In late 1991, there were about 1,000 advisoryprocess. Unfortunately, the recent contro- committees of all kinds in the U.S. Federalversies at Stanford University regarding the government, reporting to 57 sponsoringinappropriate use of indirect costs, and at the agencies. About half of them are clearlyUniversity of California regarding the scientific; others could be considered scientificmultimillion dollar retirement package of their under a looser definition. Their activitiespresident give the impression that scientific include peer review, program advising, ad hocresearch is just another government supported fact-finding or investigating, and providingCOMM trimmiimmemmmessimmiodi advice on broad political-technical issues. According to Bruce L. R. Smith of the Brookings Institution, successful advisoryThe Situation Room committees have a clear mandate relating to an issue or problem, an identifiable client or pointRichard Heydinger of access to the agency, a committee chair "onThe University of Minnesota the same political wave-length" as the policymaker, some diversity of outlook,Environmentalscanningisfrequently adequate sup-porting resources, and adescribed as an organizational radar screen, pragmatic rationalist mode ("They will almostsweeping all 360 degrees of the horizon to always have subtly negotiated the terms ofidentify trends and events that have longer what they will say so as to mesh with the goalsterm implications for the organization. Thus of their clients"). the name, On the Horizon, is an apt moniker Science advisory committees have sometimesfor this newsletter. Yet a highly sophisticated played significant policy roles vis-a-vis inputradar ;ystem can differentiate the fnends from for governmental agencies, but they also arethe foes, the "meteorites from the missiles." On vulnerable to neglect, misuse, or atrophy.the Horizon also provides this differentiation Committees face an increasingly burdensomeby discussing the implications of each trend climate, as the need for technically informedand event in the context of higher education. In Page12 this column, we will take compendium of facts this process a next step. WeIn 1986 when the Universityready for the protesters will add the process of and themefiia. We issuesmanagementtoof Minnesota experienced alreadyknew who environmental scanning. its first animal rights would be our chief spokesperson.Asa dernonstration... our Issues management is akin result, we handled the to sending out a scoutingadministrative team huddledprotest in a more self- partytomore closelyto devise a re sponse. it wasconfident, more examine the issuethatobvious that 1.tv'e were sensitive manner, scanning has identified. putting forward our side Issues managementreacting to this incident of the story forcefully. develops a thoroughdifferently than we had to As we negotiated with definition of the issue we protesters, we were clear aretracking.Inissuesprevious protests. In fact, on our own bottom-line management we explorewe were prepared. and a potentially ugly ways to shape the issue, to - Heydingersituation was defused. build on it, or to deflect it. Nightly news accounts We also begin to develop presented a balanced organizational strategies and perspective on the use of responses, so that we are prepared to respondanimals in research, not just the arguments of as the issue unfolds. We have dubbed thisthe animal rights activists. column The Situation Room because it is here that we will examine alternatives for affectingAs I reflected upon our success, I realized that the development of the issue. We will alsothis did not happen by chance. Two years explore alternative courses of action forbefore, Minnesota's environmental scanning colleges and universities. In other words, weteam had identified animal rights as an issue will discuss ways to manage the issue. that needed more attention by our institution. As the scanning team surveyed various Issues management was coined in 1984 by W.publications and interviewed institutional HowardChaseinhisbookIssuesleaders, it became obvious that animal rights Management: Origins of the Future. As awas an issue that was gathering momentum public policy advocate, Chase proposed aacross the country. As an institution that methodology for becoming an actor, not apurchased over 1 million animals per year for bystander, in the development of publicuse in reearch, the University of Minnesota policies that affect the organization. Likecould easily become a prime target for protests. environmental scanning, issues management is much more art than science. Effective leadersThus, we commissioned an animal rights have done it for centuries. However, given theissuesLianagement team. This group pace and interconnectedness of today's world,developed a work plan for assembling data, organizations can benefit from a moredeveloped and got approval for appropriate systematic approach. policies, and reviewed actualinstitutional This was demonstrated to performance. When the me personally in 1986 whenDayton-Hudson, a large protestarrived,the the University of Minnesotaretail chain with an active institution was not only experienced its first animal prepared but was able to rights demonstration. As ourissues management counter the protesters' administrative team huddledprogram, classifies the claims by citing the to devise a response, it wasissues they are tracking by institution's on-going obviousthat we were efforts. Although in the reacting to this incidentusing a retail product past eight years there differently than we had totypology. Issues are placedhave been additional previous protests. In fact, wein one of five categories: demonstrationsand were prepared. protest activity, all of testing, incoming, pre-peak,this has been handled in We already had apost-peak, outgoing. a self-confident comprehensive policy to institutionalmanner. assure the responsible use of - HeydingerOur effective response animals. We already had a originated with our early Page 13 environmental scanning and the subsequentlike to discuss, please contact me directly. issues management response. Guest editorials are always welcome. Rick Heydinger, Alliance for Higher Education, 203 As this example demonstrates,issuesBurtonHall,University of Minnesota management isanatural follnw-uptoMinneapolis, MN 55455 (Phone: 612-624- scanning. Issues go through cycles. Dayton-8586; -Fax:612-626-7496: INTERNET: Hudson, a large retail chain with an [email protected]). issues management program, classifies the issues they are tracking by using a retail product typology. Issues are placed in one of five categories: testing, incoming, pre-peak,TOOLS post-peak, outgoing. In this column we will strive to identify issues that are in the testing orClarisWorks for Windows; incoming phase, so that you can utilize this discussion in your own work. ClarisWorks 2.0 (Macintosh) Of course, outgoing issues at one institutionYou're just not a major league software can be incoming at another. Our work ispublisherifyou haven't brought out motivated by our colleague !an Wilson'sSomethingWorks. Works is considered to be a poignant remark: "The societal concerns ofcodeword for integrated, which is itself a yesterday become the political issues of today,codeword for trying to be all things to all the legislated requirements of tomorrow, andpeople, or at least most things to most people. the litigated penalties of the day after." It does make sense. After all, the final product Each month in this column we will strive tofor most of us who use the computer is some add further depth to the definition of a parti-kind of document. No document is worth the cular issue. We will discuss alternative modesname if it doesn't include a few paragraphs or for studying an issue; in some cases we willpages or chapters of text. If we use quantitative explore alternative courses of action forinformation, chances are good our document managing the issue. willalsohave Ourperspective tables of numbers willbe oneof linked by formulas, institutional action,"Our work is motivated by our sothatifwe n o t justcolleague Ian Wilson's poignant change one number identification. t h e related remark: 'The societal concerns of numbers can Innext month'syesterday become the political issueschange Situation Room weof today, the; legislated requirements accordingly. These will focus on the numbers were world o fof tomorrow, and the litigated doubtless stored in instantaneous penalties of the day after." a database communications inHeVinger somewhere, which we all live, accumulated, andthe growing sorted and reported influence the media before finding their is playing in managing today's colleges andway into a spreadsheet for analysis. By universities.Manyhighereducationkeeping the results in a spreadsheet, we can administrators yearn for the days of yesteryeardeal with the inevitable last-minute changes when their institutions received more favorablefrom staff and associates. And let's not forget and less adversarial coverage by the media.charts. It's not so long ago that each of However, with the growing popularity of thethesetext, databases spread-sheets and docu-drama and the live mini-cam, those daysgraphinghad to be taken care of by different are gone: Managing today's higher educationprograms. Even with some pretty fancy institution requires effective media strategieshardware, we were physically cutting and that build on up-to-date assumptions about thispasting our documents together. And we had to industry's operation and its markets. run first one program, then another, to get our work done. In the future, guest columnists will provide some of the analysis. If you have spotted anA few iearsr ago, Microsoft an end to all issue on your scanning screen that you wouldthat anbrought out Microso t Works, first for Page 14 the Macintosh and later for the PC. Earlier,theMacintosh,andhasannounced Lotus had tried to introduce something calledClarisWorks for Windows. ClarisWorks 2.0 is Jazz, which, if it had actually worked, mightwonderful; it will knock the socks off of have made a serious difference in the balanceMicrosoft Works users who are allowed to try of power on the Mac. Earlier still, in fact aboutit out. It should get great reviews. So, in a an hour and a half after the introduction of themonth or so there is going to be this big splash Macintosh, a couple of German physicsas Claris announces that ClarisWorks now runs students created Rag Time, the best-sellingon both machines. Tne punch linethe version office software in several European countries,that is coming out for the PC is identical to the a dismal marketing failure in the US, butClarisWorks 1.0 that has been running on the arguably the best general software product inMac for the last couple of years, but not to the the history of personal computing. Clarislatest version of ClarisWorks. Seems the admits that Rag Time is its most formidabledevelopment team under-estimated the time competition outside the US, and heaves a sighnecessary to make something work as well on of relief that it was never well marketed here. Ia PC as it does on a Mac. I have found no won't review it in this column until they bringevidence of issues management at Claris out a PC compatible version. regarding this forthcoming embarrassment. A bunch of little Now forthe programs,glued similaritiesand together bythe differences. In the weakest of bonds, illustration,you Microsoft Works can see just how was more like an - integratedthe assortments of one- program is. The ounce boxes of tools palette on the breakfastcereal left of the screen than anytLng else.' contains drawing But at least you and painting tools, could keep a spreadsheet and a word processoras well as the four tools at the top, which open at the same time, long before there waspermit you to choose what kind of frames you Windows or MultiFinder. are going to put on the page. All of these tools and frames are constantly available, whether it In what may have been one of the funniestis a spreadsheet that you would like to drop in marketing decisions since New Coke, Claristhe middle of a page of text, or a masthead recently started shipping Claris Works 2.0 foryou'd like to create with the draw and paint tools and put at the top. tlarisWorks 2.0 gives you multiple views of your work. EV' rileEditformat FontSizeStyle Outhne View This edition of On the Ettnitigetitta Ottt :::311131111(3rks2 (31,11.i Horizonwas _produced WO 2 4 6 2 4 6,, 3 entirely in ClarisWorks 2.0, rather than in the usual WOW MSS*combination of drawing 1.1MNILMI. programs and PageMaker. The fancy gradation screen honzoused for the masthead is a new feature, not available in the Windows version yet, althoughtheWindows 1ft INFORMATION version could easily import it Imaie.,11.4 11. Straw 3), .1460,4). nohow from another program. The ...... ramart priera et 40klefteisiteet Nueeer multipleviewsofthe document, so handy when iftsft....ft IN you need to work up close :ftaft.ftift A. IN itrWed 117:ttil but see the implications for ft- imarmaawes the overall page, are unique evralserof wait- iierissimir swim to version 2.0, so they won't opponi 16 S. .70=4 Arravapie.liemovie. be on the IBM-compatible isiewsim.41 «sing of do ideaf 6ionl 41. ft tp Zollieririniarde side for a while. But the alippeirime odeva.4... ia 1161 Vami ability to embed multiple Amin 11. 4sm. Pimealievaritaso frames in text isinall , versions, as is the ability to Page 15

BEST COPYAVAILABLE blow the view up or reduce it. ESTW ( bulletin-board-speak for by the way.) (Claris, if you are listening, PLEASE distribute aOn-line bibliographic databases, such as those translator to convert 2.0 files to the Windowsmade available over Dialog, can speed parts of the version. Make it transparent to users on both sides.research process dramatically. But we may have You'll reduce the disgruntlement. Call it Clariscome to rely on them more than we should. Classic. Get the Windows version up to speed with the Mac 2.0 version. Then you can rest.) I had occasion to assist a friend in putting together a package of information in support of her Here's what you get, all in one package that fitsconsideration for promotion to full professor. One easily on a small drive with modest RAM (readpart of the package was a search of the Science "laptop"): a word processor with thesaurus andCitation Index (SC!) and the Social Sciences spelling checker, along with a built-in outliner; aCitation Index (SSCD. database with great layout capabilities and all the built-in functions most of us will ever need,In helping with the search, I learned that there are including the ability to merge and purge mailingnot only no universally accepted standards for what lists and print labels; a spreadsheet capability thatis appropriate to such a list, but that from can put multiple spreadsheets in the middle of adepartment to department, and even between page of text, or a drawing, a remarkable draw andcandidates, no set of rules was followed at the paint capability that is always available; some greatuniversity in question. file translators that let you accept and produce files from/for most popular programs on the IBM-For example, it's fairly easy to fatten the list by compatible or the Mac; and a telecommunicationsincluding every occurrence of a self-citation. (Have module that on both machines, but especially underyou ever seen a publication in which the author Windows, is quite distinct from the otherdidn't cite him- or herself at least once?) There capabilities,although you can keep otherwere no rules about whether self-citations counted documents open while you are telecommunicating,equally with citations by others. Moreover, SCI so that you can drop what you download into theand SSCI will only lead you to instances in which documentyouareworkingon.Tele-the first author was cited. Thus, if the candidate is communications has a Kermit ability. If there aresecond author, a much more detailed search is no idiosyncrasies to your mainframe, you can donecessary. file transf'er. (I can get files from Duke s computer just fine, but not from UNC's. So don't throw awaySeveral librarians at a number of universities have your other Kermit programs.) told me that there are no guidelines regarding such searches. The consequences can be profound. The biggest disadvantage to this software is theUsing a CV with 100 publications, one librarian, absence of hyphenation, which means that narrow,using "the same method I use for all my tenure and justified columns are going to look awkward onpromotion candidates." found 190 citations. A some lines unless you are willing to insert hyphens.second librarian, who routinely takes into account That's why the screen shot isn't in the center of themore than just first authorship, found a total, previous page. Still, if it's integrated software youwithout self-citations, of more than 400. The cost want, Claris Works for Windows and Claris Worksfor the two searches was more than $700. 2.0 for the Macintosh are the right choice. Just make sure you watch for the upgrade to theIf such searches are important to promotion and Windows version as soon as it comes out. tenure, there should be rules for them. An institution might save considerable money by investing in the CD-ROM version of the databases. If individuals are being asked to pay for the searches, the rich will get richer and the poor will get poorer. And the less-savvy, less-well-mentored, less culturally mainstream members of the faculty, will be at a real disadvantage in the quest for a promotion.

On the Horizon Non-Profit Organization U.S. Postage Univ. of North Carolina PAID School of Education Permit No. 177 CB3500 Peabody Hall Chapel Hill, N.C. 27599-1110 Chapel Hill, NC 27599

1/14/93 The George WashingtonUniversity ERIC Clearinghouseon Higher One Dupont Circle-Ste630 Washington DC20036 tyl

IT'S TIME TO RE-INVENT HIGHER EDUCATION A Strategic Assessment in the waees of high school graduates. The average income of employees with college degrees barely kept pace with infla- David Pearce Snyder, The Snyder Family tion in the 1980s. indkating that there was no marketplace Enterprise, and Gregg Edwards, the shortage of such workers. The BLS estimated that at least Academy for Advanced & Strategic 35% of recent colleee graduates. including scientists and engineers, end up in jobs that do not require a pOst-secondary Studies degree. A 1990 survey of 55.000 I 980-88 college graduates revealed that only 1/3 or fewer of those with degrees in the In its 1982 Annual Report to the Joint Economic Committeesocial sciences, humanities and liberal arts were able to find of Congress. the U.S. Bureau ot Labor Statistics (BLS)employment in their own fields, just as BLS had predicted forecast that by the end of the decade there would be far more back in 1982. colleee graduates than there would be appropriate jobs forHigher education wasn't the only major U.S. institution to them. At the time, no one paid much attention to the BLSmisjudge the on-coming curve of national restructuring dur- projections, since conventional wisdom held that the United ing the past decade. Even thoueh America's employers bought States was on the way to becoming a high-tech information $1.2 trillion worth of new information technology during the economy in which a college deeree would be the minimum 1980s, productivity growth among information workers did requirement tor all middle class jobs. not improve. Hundreds of billions were spent on center city At regular intervals throughout the 80s, surveys of employers development, but most urban economies continued to dete- reiterated riorate.Similarly, mounting con- Americans invested cerns over pu- over $1 trillion in tative shortages We are about to re-invent all of our higher education of college- great institutions.When we get double what we spent trained work- in the 1970s: yet nei- ers, especially done, W.,e will havere-invented ther the graduates nor scientists and America. the nation as a whole engineers. appeared to have de- Thesefore- rived any significant casts. plus additional benefit. Americans long-standing faith in the unalloyed value ofOne published estimate by a member of the National Acad- education, sustained an ongoing boom in college enrollmentsemy of Engineering asserted that only 1/6 of the 2.7 million during the 1980s. in spite of the fact that the traditionalscientists and engineers who graduated between 1978 and college-aged share of the U.S. population shrank by 15% and1988 were actually working in the fields for which they had average tuition doubled. prepared. To offset the rising costs of higher education, the govern-The Future Is Closer Now ment. business and philanthropic sectors nearly doubled college financial aid, including over $15 billion in studentBy the end of the 1980s. it was clear that the information loans. Politicians, economists and school officials routinely economy would not require millions of additional scientists, cited the widening gap between the median incomes ofmathematicians and engineers. It will require workers, at all college graduates and their high school counterparts. But, as levels alid in all functions, who possess formal information- the 80s turned into the 90s, economic reality and the 1982 using skills; these include the ability to gather, organize and BLS forecasts converged, and higher education began to look analyze data, and the ability to think systemically. To achieve more and more like a very expensive highway to nowhere. most of the productive potential of information technology, A July 1992 U.S. Labor Department analysis revealed that employers will have to do more than simply install computers the growing income disparity between high school and col-and train people. Institutions will also have to completely re- lege graduates had been almost entirely due to a sharp drop Continues, p 2 Licensed for internal duplication to License # On the Horizon Vol. 1 No. 5 J une 1993 desi 2n their management systems and their organizationallegislation to underwrite apprenticeship programs through- structures to permit their employees to apply their new toolsout the public schools of America. and skills to the direct improvement of their work activities. Employers, from the U.S. Army to the MotorolaCorporation. The installation of electronic info-corn technology does not are also switching from classroom training to on-the-job, represent the ultimate refinement of the Industrial Age: it is work-related training, from the remedial education level to merely the basis of a new source of added economic value.the hieh-tech up-skilling. The adoption of experiential learn- Whereas historically, such technological transformationsing, like the adoption of teamwork, is not merely a current take a generation or more to complete, today the pace has fashion. Experiential learning, for most people, is a demon- accelerated: we are nearing the half-way point in our transi- strably more effective means of imparting important skills tion from labor-intensive production to information-inten- and knowledge than is classroom instruction. sive production. and a general transformation of our basic economic institutions is already under way. Information for Decisions After 15 years of experimentation, both corporate AmericaCitizens must be able to use information to make better and organized labor have all but announced that team-workdecisions in the marketplace, in the voting booth and in their is not just the current management fad, it is the new manage- daily lives. ment. E. Edwards Deming will be the Frederick W. Taylor of the 21st Century, and Max The Hudson Institute's 1987 Weber's 100 year-old multi- report. Workforce 2000. was layer bureaucratic pyramid is the first of several studies to now being de-constructed to elb conclude that through tM end make way for flat organiza- of the labor intensive Inclus- tions made up entirely of 0 I. e trial Era. the 1970s. only teamsrank and file teams. about 25% of all U.S. jobs 0 middle-management teams required mastery of formal and executive teams. During S S reasonine or information ham- the 1980s. the average For- dling skills. The other 75% tune 500 firm eliminated five of the jobs required no more layers of management, and in formal skill than the ability to the process sharply reduced the marketplace demand for theread the safety warnings on, the equipment. From now on, literate, but otherwise un-skilled liberal arts and humanitieshowever, 75% of U.S. jobs will require formal information- graduate. Teamwork is rapidly sweeping through the publichandling skills, including graphic and statistical literacy, sector as well, at all levels of government. Even moresystemic thinking, and quantitative estimation and alloca- remarkable, performance-based pay, an essential concomi- tion. To impart these skills to so large a part of our population, tant of successful teamwork, is also appearing in a growing our schools will have to teach all students in a manner that is number of institutions, replacing credential based merit pay most compatible to their learning style. We can no longer rely for professional and technical personnel in both the private on classroom instruction as our principal means of education. and public sectors. American organizations have begun to re- Most of the 3/4 of the U.S. work force of the year 2000 who invent themselves. are already out of school and in the labor pool. from the shop floor to the executive suites, will have to be upskilled during Re-inventing Our Institutions the 1990s, either to stay employed or get re-employed. Most adults don't learn any better from classroom lectures than We are about to re-invent all of our great institutions. When their kids do, and thus. employee development is increas- we get done. we will have re-invented America. ingly being incorporated on-the-job. A growing number of One of the great American institutions we are about to re-employers, from hospitals to machine shops, are collaborat- invent is the public school. After a decade of largely ineffec- ing with local community colleges to create associate-degree tual political initiatives, educational reformers have begun toprograms based upon combinations of cumulative work and focus upon experiential learningincluding project work,classroom experience. internships, simulation, and performance testingas the most purposeful innovation for improving school perfor-Four-year institutions are partnering with high-tech employ- mance. During the 1992 presidential campaign, candidateers such as Motorofa, IBM, and The Rand Corporation, to grant degrees based substantially on workplace experience. Clinton issued a white paper endorsing U.S. adoption of a Simultaneously, thousands of post-secondary schools are German-style of apprenticeship system in America. Since the granting credits in basic courses to individuals who are able election. Labor Secretary Robert Reich (long a proponent of experiential learning) has been working with a coalition ofto pass College Level Examination Program (CLEP) tests, or Democratic and Republican leaders in Congress to pass Continues, p 4. col I 2 June 1993 hmemsOn the Horizon Vol. 1 No. 5 From the Editor Editorial Board This is our final issue in Volume One. JamesL. Morrison. Editor Subscription responses have been great. University ofNorth Carolina at Chapel Hill We already have several hundred domes- James H. Heller. Associate Editor Peter Jonas tic and international subscribers. Duke University Cardinal Stritch College Bernard Glassman. Managing EditorGeorge Keller For Volume Two, we are pleased to an- and Tools Columnist University of Pennsylvania nounce that the STEEP sections will be Pragmatix:lnformationDesign Lowell Lueck headed by well recognized experts in Blanche Fried Arons Western Illinois University their respective areas. Jan Gruell, who Editorial Assistant Editor. Trend Lines will head the SOCIAL section, is a politi- William Ashley Lina Lupica Ashley & Associates cal scientist at the University of Akron's Early Signals Walter A. Albers. Jr. Institute for Future Studies and Research: Michael Marien Albers Systems Inc. Editor. Future Survey she is also program director of the Ohio Kuni Beasley Donna McGinty Policy Issues Network and editor of Ohio Tyndale Theological Seminary University of Georgia Ctr for Cont. Ed Foresight. Wally Albers, recently retired Peter Bishop Editor. Lookouts head of Operating Sciences (scanning, University of Houston at Clear LakeGerald W. McLaughlin market research, decision and risk analy- Wayne I. Boucher Virginia Polytechnical Inst. & State U. The Arkansas Institute Thomas V. Mecca sis ) for General Motors Research Labo- Arnold Brown Piedmont Technical College ratories and now principal of a consulting Weiner, Edrich & Brown. Inc. Mark Meredith firm specializing in management science Lu Anne Corvelli Universit of Colorado-Boulder and decision making, forecasting, and United Way of America Magdalena Rood scanning. will be responsible for the K. Patricia Cross Editor. ALRA SIG: Futures Research and TECHNOLOGICAL area. Sten Kefalas. University of California. Berkeley Strategic Interactive Newsletter Chris de Winter-Hebron Frans A. Van Vught professor of management at the Univer- H+E Associates Ltd. (England) University of Twente ( The Netherlands) sity of Georgia and a specialist in interna- George S. Dodge Robert Wilkinson tional business and information systems, Office. Chief Army Reserve Pittsburgh State University will be responsible for the ECONOMIC E. Raymond Hackett Editor, Foresight area. David Orr, department of environ- College Information Systems George Wilkinson mental studies at Oberlin, and the author Richard B. Heydinger The Wilkinson Group University of Minnesota Editor. Happenings of several books on the environment, is Ian H. Wilson responsible for the ENVIRONMENTAL SRI Institute area. The POLITICAL sector will be On the Horizon is published October, December. February. April. and June by the written by Graham Molitor, president of Institute for Academic and Professional Development. School of Education. The Univer- Public Forecasting, Inc.. and vice-presi- sity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. For m, -e information, write James L. Morrison. dent of the World Future Society. Gra- Editor. On the Horizon. CB3500 Peabody Hall. University of North Carolina. Chapel Hill. ham served as director of research for NC 27599 (phone 91 9 966-1354: Internet [email protected]) bothofVice-presidentNelson The Institute for Academic and Professional Leadership serves leaders in higher Rockefeller's campaigns for the Repub- education by providing professional development workshops and seminars. For more information about the Institute, its facilities, and its services, contact William S. Pate. lican presidential nomination and is au- Program Coordinator. The Friday Center. CB #1020. UNC-Chapel Hill. Chapel Hill. NC 'hor of over 200 articles and monographs 27599. (919) 962-3276. Internet [email protected]. on political forecasting. 1 will introduce the other members of the 1993-94 editorial board in my column in the October issue of Volume Two. Nancy Blom. a research associate in the North Dakota University System. writes, "It is truly the only newsletter out of the scores of them that cross my desk that I read cover to cover. Why? Because the format is refreshing and USEFUL. You not only state what is going on in higher education, but you give us the impact and

Continues, p 16. col. 1 3 On the Horizon Vol. 1 No. 5 J une 1993 Continued from p 2 marketplace value: diplomas and erades are only 10% to 20% who are able to present portfolios of work products demon- better than flipping a coin as predictors of job performance. strating academic competency. Institutions of higher learning must devise means to incorpo- Another striking example of the blurring of the line between rate experiential learning into their instructional repertoire. education and employment has been the explosive growth ofNorthern Europe. where 1/3 to 1/2 of the university graduates internship programs as the "fifth year of college." In the come through apprenticeship programs, provides workine 1970s. Hunter & Schmidt showed that a trial job assessment models of such arrangements. To remain globally competi- is more than twice as accurate as a grade in predicting ative. the U.S. must initiate an explosive erowth of internship person's subsequent job performance. Conversely, David programs. Colleges and universities must offer timely oppor- Rock at the Educational Testing Service in Princeton hastunities to integrate higher education and high-tech employ- shown that a college curriculum that involves student!: inment through partnerships with public and private sector faculty research projects, rigorous student interaction andemployers. extensive out-of-class experience, produces graduatos who College and university faculty can use their classrooms as consistently achieve substantially higher scores on the Gradu-test-beds for developing the content for graphic curricu- ate Record Ex- lumdelivered via amination than CD/ROMs and inter- do non-involved active video-discs students. to serve that 1/3 of The data are the population who compelling: ex- learn best visually. perience is a su- Distance learning via perior teacher. Alb instructional televi- and performance sion can significantly isa superior 0 0 - reduce the cost of measure of com- delivering the tradi- petence. Intern- tional classroom lec- s h ips must ture. become an integral component of post-secondary education and the princi- Experiential Education pal bridge between school and the workplace by the end of the decade. As the employment manager for Apple ComputerThe adoption of experiential and visual electronic instruc- was recently quoted in The Wall St. Journal. "To be honest. tional delivery substantially expands the potential reach of without work experience and other extras, a college degree higher education while improving iLs economic efficiency. now is really like a high school diploma." Within 10 years, it should be possible for the average college to electronically integrate its teaching, learning, staff devel- The 1989 MIT Commission on Industrial Productivity con-opment and research functions among its faculty, students, cluded that, "Without major changes in the ways that schoolsadministrators, and experiential learning partners to become and employers train workers over the course of a life-time, noa "virtual university." with activities going on throughout the amount of macro-economic fine-tuning or technological world, and educational services lasting the duration of each innovation will be able to produce significantly improvedstudent' s learning life-time. economic performance and a rising standard of living." The handwriting is on the wall. Western scholarship cannotThe real challenge facing America's colleges and universities plausibly survive untransformed by the dramatic changes as the nation begins the second half of its generation-long now sweeping through their economic, technological and transition from labor-intensive production to information- soc ial environments. intensive production will be the redesign of their curriculum content. The markets for which higher education prepares its Colleges and Universities Are graduates arc changing like the patterns of a kaleidoscope. Most new professional. technical. and managerial jobs now Cash-Guzzlers require a broadly sophisticated mix of applied math, scientific method, subject-matter knowledge. graphic literacy and The traditional college is a notably inefficient "cash-guz- reasoning skills, rather than the deep, narrowly focused zler." the educational equivalent of Detroit's gas-guzzling competencies provided by traditional higher education. cars of the 1960s and 70s. The high cost of a bachelors degree has recently given rise to proposals to reduce undergraduateThe range of innovations described above will take years to study to three years. The present basic productivity of class- institute, refine, perfect, and regularize, even under ideal room instructional methodology is relatively ineffective.conditions and the most effective leadership. Our nation will One-third of today' s graduates possess little or no addedcontinue to be long on social needs and short on discretion- 4 On the Horizon Vol. 1 No. 5 June 1993 ary funds for the rest of the century; consumers increasinglycountries (LDCs). A revolution in health strategy is required will be forced to deal with higher education as a commodity, to address the health challenges of the late 20th and early 21st to be purchased at the lowest cost. century (e.g.. sexually transmitted diseases. HIV, and smok- ing). Long-established institutions of higher education are already feeling the competitive pressure from aggressively market-In the first three decades after WWII,thy major thrust of driven commu- health programs nity colleges. In was biomedical and response. some _ technical. By the alb . . major colleges 1970s, there was and universities .. growing evidence are presenting that a hospital- themselves as Olt I alb S based,curative uniquely supe- strategy was failing rior, scholarly. to meet health needs research-based and was increas- centers of ingly expensive. In knowledge cre- wealthy countries, it ation and-transfer. The sole aim of these institutions seems to became increasingly apparent that many chronic diseases be to get the Federal government to underwrite more fundsamong adults resulted from unhealthy behavior, diet, and for a continuation of "business as usual." lifestyle. Many of these countries have developed strategies for encouraging healthy lifestyles, in an attempt to resolve The Clin:on Administration is promoting, with wide-spread this problem. public support. expanded tuition loans and a national service program to offset these loans. Until the marketplace value ofIn LDCs, it became clear that the Western medical model of the typical college degree has been demonstrably improved. urban-based hospitals was not meeting health needs. A few this would be a poor investment. It would be much moreLDCs have focused their health systems on reaching all the productive to use these scarce resources to create a broadlypeople with essential services, and promoting basic hygiene literate and technically competent citizenry. rather than pro-and good diets. ducing a lesser number of narrowly trained specialists. In thisThe international donor community translated the primary respect, tax incentives for apprentice and intern programs health movement into a global child-survival strategy. Pro- would surely be in order. moting healthy lifestyles and child survival should be looked at as precursors of a revolutionary shift in worldwide health American Higher Educationthe policy and program strategy. The preventive approach to 21st Century improving health recognizes that all sectors of society must he involved in the production of health. At a time IA hen business leaders are re-engineering corporate America and when reforms from local communities to the 1Mosley, W.H. & Cowley. P. (1991. Dec) The challenge of White House are diligently re-inventing government, it isworld health. Population Bulletin. 46 (4), 1-39. Adapted inconceivable that our venerable and valuable institutions offrom Future Survey. ( 1992. Nov )1. higher learning can, or should, remain untransformed. One way or another. American higher education must be led,Cancer Prevention: A Change in prodded. pushed. cajoled or dragged. kicking and screaming. Lifestyle into the 21st century. Cancer is now the leading cause of death for women in the U.S. If trends continue, it will be the leading cause of death Social for both men and women by 2000. This is not so much due to the cancer mortality rate (which has increased by a modest Prevention: A World Health 6c7c between 1950 and 1987) but to the remarkable and consistent decline in heart disea5e mortality (which has fallen Strategy 55% of its rate in 1950 ) resulting from reduced prevalence of The 20th century has seen unprecedented gains in humanmajor risk factors. health and survival, with average life expectancy for new- Recently there have been major changes for some individual borns worldwide doubling from about 30 years in 1900 to 64cancer types. Since 1973. mortality caused by Hodgkin's years in the late 1980s. The world's elderly population will disease, and cancers of the cervix, uterus, stomach. rectum. swell by 114% between 1990 and 2020; by 2020, 67% of thetestis, bladder, thyroid. oral cavity, and pharynx has declined 706 million persons over age 65 will live in lesser developedmore than 15q. These decreases arc believed to result from

5 On the Horizon Vol. 1 No. 5 JUM. 1993 chanees in food preservation practices and consumption Institutions of higher learning have a responsibility to their patterns, as well as early detection and treatment. Since 1973.students to raise the consciousness of personal health issues increases in mortality of more than 15% have occurred forand personal decision makine so that the next generation can lune cancer. melanoma. non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. andappreciate the health risks involved in individual behavior. multiple melanoma. Increases in incidence of more than 15%This is simply one piece in the larger picture of social (but not in mortality) have occurred for kidney. prostate, responsibility. breast and brain cancer. (The increase in brain tumors is largely explained by CAT scanners that diagnose otherwise "silent" tumors.) Tobacco, alone or in combination with Technological alcohol, remains the most important cause of cancer. accounting for about 1in 3 U.S. cases. There is sufficientThe Pentium Is coming! The knowledee to move energetically toward the yevention of aPentium Is Coming! significant proportion of human cancer. Contrary to popular opinion, environ. iental pollution is not a major cancer haz- Intel Corporation's long-awaited Pentium CPU (central pro- ard. The majority of cancer causes (tobacco. alcohol. animalcessor unit) computer chip has recently been released into the fat. obesity. ultraviolet light) are associated with lifestyle. marketplace. This chip promises to represent one more in a [Henderson. B.E., Ross. R.K., & Pike. M.C. (1991, Nov ). lone line of remarkable advances in computer chip technol- Toward the primary prevention of cancer. Science, 254, ogy in desk-top and laptop personal computers (PCs). The 1131-1138. Adapted Pentium chip from Future Survey provides capa- (1992. Nov bilities for PCs that only a few Implications ". short years ago were available . II Both of these articles- only from imply that prevention mainframes. is a major interna- We ordinary tional health strategy citizens can that opens the door . have at our fin- to new collaborations gertips in our between the social home or office sciences and the bio- all the com- medical sciences. puter power Many of the world health problems will not be resolvedand speed that was incredibly difficult to access and pay for without social change. For example, research on iron defi-just a little while ago, at a cost that fits many of our budgets. ciency in rural Chinese children has shown that government The Pentium chip also represents a milestone in the battle interventions have been ineffective because of pervasivewith Japan for the global market share of semiconductor fears of eenocide in the minority population. Althoueh the electronic chips. According to the market research firm. intervention is simple and effective (e.g., the introduction ofDataquest. Inc.. U.S. chip manufacturers are regaining lost salt tablets to the diet), the social obstacles are enormous.market share from the Japanese and will account for about This medical condition will be resolved only when a socially 34% of the world demand in a year, up almost nine percentage acceptable intervention is devised. points from the 1991 figure. This is a very encouraging sign A similar situation is found for heart disease. AIDS, and lung for the U.S. electronics industry, and for our nation's balance can.zer in the Western world. We have the knowledge toof trade problem. significantly reduce the incidence of these conditions, but we The computer hardware advances resulting from the Pentium lack the social knowledge and/or the social will. applications will spawn an entire new cycle of innovative and How does this affect higher eduction? Proactive colleges andcreative software developments. We can start looking for universities must assume their responsibilities and developmany new developments in operating systems. applications opportunities to facilitate the interdisciplinary interchange to and utilities for PCs that will get more and more user- solve these problems. Duke University, for example. has friendly. And you can also bet that the competition among the established the Center for Living, a multidisciplinary re-U.S. software firms such as the Microsofts, Novells, and search and intervention program to reduce the incidence ofBorlands will heat up substantially. [Feibus, M., & Slater. M. heart attack. Individuals at risk are referred to the Center(1993, April 27). Pentium power, PC Magazine, pp. 108- where social and medical issues are addressed 'n an inte- 120)1. grated holistic manner.

6 Horizon Vol. I No. 5 June 1993 Implications laboratories are being asked to help boost national competitiveness by performing R&D to help industries manufacture Look for dramatic improvements in computerized teachingmore at lower cost. These laboratories are switching from a aids at the higher education level, particularly in the science cloak-and-dagger mentality to a cost-effective mentality. and engineering areas of instruction. The solutions of compli- This is foreign territory for the National Laboratories. The cated equations and the manipulation of large data sets will be transition is proving somewhat more difficult than expected, much easier on PCs than ever before, opening new doors for but progress is evident. The number of cooperative research the innovative educational software professional. and development agreements (CREDAs) between industry and U.S. Department of Energy Laboratories reached 400 in Voice Recognition Coming Into Its May of 1993, up from only 15 in April of 1991. Similar data Own are reported for the Department of Defense Laboratories. Of course the jury is still out on how effective the National Speech -recognition technology appears to be outgrowing the Laboratories can be in accelerating our nation' s technology several irritating limitations that until recently have confined transfer and increasing productivity. But it is increasingly it mostly to the laboratory. The market now includes aclear that the effort is underway. [Carey, J., Hof, R.D., & number of commercially available products that allow a userAtchison, S.D. (1993, June 7). Firelight over the weapons to give voice commands to computers, VCRs, and automo-labs, Business Week, pp. 104-1061. biles. among other things, thanks to the merging of speech recognition -esearch with a branch of linguistics called natu- Implications ral-lang- .e studies. This integration of acoustics with syn- tax and semantics, catalyzed by grants from the FederalUntil recently there has been a division-of-labor in R&D in government (ARPA), enabled researchers to program dicta-the U.S. Academic institutions pursued fundamental or basic tion systems to resolve the many ambiguities of the Englishresearch and development studies: industry laboratories (and language. The system can differentiate between words suchsome government laboratories ) looked after applied aspects as "hour" and "our" or "two" and "too." The ability to interactof R&D. Most defense-related R&D was confined to the with a computer that recognizes and differentiates betweenspecialized government laboratories. The entry of the Na- the spoken word choices should give new meaning to thetional Laboratories into the commercial, non-defense areas phrase "user-friendly" when it comes to PCs and lap-topof R&D is contributing to a redistribution of this old order computers. The possible elimination of the keyboard hasdivision-of-labor. Academic institutions that have tradition- great significance for the nontypists among as. We do. ally relied on government and industry funding for their R&D however, still have quite a ways to go to chat with a computerdollars must rethink their strategies for acquiring funds. The the way the astronauts conversed with HAL in the movieshift of the well-funded National Laboratories from defense 2001:A Space Odyssey [Bylinsky. G. (1993. May 3). Nextto non-defense related R&D also constitutes a new source of stepcomputers we can talk to. Fortune, pp. 88-911. competition for basic R&D, an academic stronghold in the past. Plan. plan. plan. The technology section was written by Implications Walter A. Albers, Jr., Albers Systems, Inc. New degrees of freedom would open up to student and teacher alike if an instructional PC could provide speechEconomic recognition. Enormous gains in efficiencies in the learning process could occur, with the innovative combinations ofThink Strategically, Globally, and sight and sound providing improved retention and assimila- tion. Academics should be researching the technology ofFuturistically voice recognition and the cognitive processes related to the In the April 1993 issue we traced the sequence of events and speech/vision combination, in order to accelerate application trends that led businesses to adapt to environmental changes of this technology to the learning process. This technology could be the key to reducing the time to complete theby refocusing their scope and scale of activities. Business managers experienced a Janus effect: looking outward they requirements for the baccalaureate degree. saw a vast globe full of opportunities: looking inward they saw a huge. bureaucratic machinery unable to keep up with The Changing Personalities of R&D the magnitude and frequency of changes in their global Labs environment. The remedy was obvious. If the world changes drastically and frequently, so must the firrn'c strategy and All through the cold war the U.S. National Laboratoriesstructure The rule: see the world as your oyster and while carried out R&D for defense under a cloak of secrecy andthinking , bout tomorrow, act today. without much regard for the cost of producing products such as a weapons system. With the break-out of peace, these same The slogan of the World Future Society in its first international meeting in Toronr- Canada. was "Think Globally, Act 7 On the Horizon Vol. 1 No. 5 the firm. The rule is: use it orlose it. Locally." Take the entire globe intoconsideration, but act in your own organization.Firms that followed this adviceandWhat do American universities do whenthey develop a survived, discovered that globalinvolvement is a long-termcompetitive advantage? They watchthe rankings. What human, and monetary re- infinite opportunities to _ commitment of organizational, should they do? There are literally sources. They discoveredthat the slogan pertaining to six cegenerate additional resourcesfor the university by going must be supple- global. That of mented with a course requires slogan for time, some changes in one that could be a the rules of the phrased: "Think game. It assumes Tomorrow, Act 0 IS 0" IV a willingness to Today." share with other 11 - institutions and During the de- I a businesses around cade of the 80s the globe informa- those businesses la W S. tion and knowl- reached overseas 414 edge created by tooutsource, 1' the university's joint-venture, and workers. Creating build strategic al- contractual ar- 1 iances. Ameri- rangements with can universities, overseas institutions is a verylucrative strategy, both as a with few exceptions, followed Petersand Waterman's advice cash flow generating method and as alearning experience for and stuck to their knitting in theirsearch for excellence. Most university faculty, staff, and students. universities are still searching forexcellence by creating Excellence Centers, or Centers ofExcellence. Most of these Once this think-globally, act-locallymindset is adopted, its centers adopted ambiguousmission statements that told ofimplementation is easy. We will deal withthe implementa- their university's intention to servetheir constituents (thetion in subsequent issues under thetopics of restructuring/re- state folks) using their own resourcesand resident facultyengineering, empowering faculty, usinghuman resources to who are now elevated to the enviousposition of research their maximum, embracing informationtechnology, and professors or fellows of centersof excellence. Rigorouscooperating by forming strategic alliances. guidelines were drawn up by theuniversity administrators that mandated quick results. Thus,the slogan became: thinkTime: Think Tomorrow,Act Today locally, act locally and immediately. Management literature has made itabundantly clear that in order to think strategi- What must educational leaders do constraints become goals. As NobelPrize winner Herbert walls: the first wall that cally? First, they must break down Simon puts it, "If you allow me to determinethe constraints, geographic border. The second is must go is the national I don't care who selects theoptimization criterion." The short-time thinking. yearly ritual of budget discussion atthe state or federal legislation level is. of course, the greatestconstraint facing Think Globally, ActLocally any university administrator.Legislative appropriation capa- closely tied to American universities are the envy ofthe world. As most ofbilities have been shrinking. Revenues are economic growth, which is in turnlinked to demographic us educated in more than onemind-processing system know, once we were exposed tothe Ameri .xn educational system trends. everything else looked boring.American universities offerWhat is a university to do? Minimizethe risk of a budget cut the best educational environmentfor both students and fac- by diversifying into sources of fundingthat are not dependent ulty. This educational climateis the greatest asset of moston a single state or nationalappropriation. American universities. Finding alternative sources of funds is along-term commit- What do businesses do when theydevelop a competitivement. We simply cannotsend students, staff, and faculty to advantage? They exploit it. 1 hey useit to create as manythe state or federal capitol to secure sourcesof funding. We tributaries of cash flow as possible.The more the asset ismust develop our ownlong-term sources of funding. For used, the more cash flow it creates,and the more it contributes example, licensing and franchisingcurricula packages or to the firm's stakeholders'wealth. Firms search the globe to even setting upoff-shore/subsidiary campuses overseas could find potentially suitable asset users.They license the technol- provide an excellent source of resources.In addition, these ogy-based competitive advantagefor a fee, they set upstrategies will lower uses of funds atthe main campus. subsidiaries around the globe, and then,sometimes they sellFaculty assigned to these ventures will,of course, be paid by

8 On the Horizon Vol. 1 No. 5 June 1993 the host institution, thereby freeing money for other domestic Kennedy concludes by calling for "nothing less than the re- uses. education of humankind" (p. 339), which implies that something was wrong with the kind of education that enabled us to Many schools have senior tenured professors who, while they industrialize the earth. Kennedy is right, I think, in believing drain resources, contribute very little beyond an occasional that our capacity to respond effectively to the great crises of esoteric paper to some equally esoteric journal. Yet they the 2Ist century will require a fundamentally different edu- represent excellent assets if viewed differently. For example, cation, one that prepares the young to live harmoniously on instead of expecting a 50-year-old tenured professor to pub- a planet with a biosphere. Those now being educated will lish another paper, entice this professor to start a new venture have to do what we, the present generation, have been unable overseas. If the professor is good in research, sign a joint or unwilling to do: stabilize world population now growing research venture with an overseas university. If the professor at the rate of a quarter of a million each day, reduce the is a good teacher, send him or her overseas to teach other emission of greenhouse gases that threaten to change the professors the art of good teaching. The professor gets off the climate, perhaps disastrously, protect biological diversity domestic payroll, frees resources, and at the same time enjoys now declining at an estimated 100-200 species per day, and the new experience, :ans from it, and brings back new ideas conserve soils being eroded at.the estimated rate of 65 million (and some cash). tons per day. The present generation must learn how to use The university of the future will be the university that breaksenergy and materials efficiently. Civilization will have to run the wall of national excellence and reaches out to become aon sunlight. Future generations must rebuild the economy in globalist. To succeed in this globalization, the university oforder to eliminate waste and pollution. They must learn how the future must shed its parochial and short-time perspective to conserve resources for the long-term. They must begin the and become an open learning organization. The Economicsgreat work of repairing, as much as possible, the damage done section was written by A. G., Steil Kefalas, Professor ofto the earth in the past 200 years of industrialization. And they Management. University of Georgia. must do all of this while reducing poverty and egregious social inequities. No generation has ever faced a more daunt- Environmental ing agenda. For the most part, today we are still educating the young as if there were no planetary emergency. It is widely assumed that The Challenge environmental problems will be solved by technology of one Institutions of higher education evolved in economic andsort or another. Better technology can certainly help, but the ecological conditions that we know now to be unusual,crisis is not primarily one of technology. Rather, it is one of perhaps unrepeatable. They reflect assumptions about tech-mind, and hence one within the minds that develop and use nological progress that had their modern origins in thetechnology. The disordering of ecological systems and of the Enlightenment Era, and more particularly in the Industrialgreat biogeochemical cycles of the earth reflects a prior Age in which our prospects seemed unlimited. For much ofdisorder in the thought, perception, imagination, intellectual the past 150 years, the United States was the strongestpriorities, and loyalties inherent in the industrial mind. Ulti- economic force in the world. Energy was cheap and abun-mately, ours is a crisis of education that merely purports to dant. The environment, and particularly the climate, wasshape and refine the capacity of minds to think ecologically, stable and resilient. Technology was dynamic and mostlyto imagine what could be and is not. and to act faithfully. unquestioned. Resoluticn of the great challenges of the next century will require us to reconsider the substance, process, and purposes A different world is now emerging. The United States is theof education at all levels. Is this possible? largest debtor nation in the world and is no longer the world's strongest economy. For both economic and ecological rea- In The Idea of the University, another Yale University histo- sons, the era of cheap energy is drawing to a close. The earth' s rian, Yaroslav Pelikan, has recently questioned "whether the vital signs reveal stress and abuse virtually everywhere. university has the capacity to meet a crisis that is not only Conservative estimates show that the emission of greenhouseecological and technological, but ultimately educational and gases will warm the earth by 2 to 4.5 degrees centigrade moral." Pelikan questions "the readiness of the university within the next century, causing unimaginable biological.community to address the underlying intellectual issues and economic, and social consequences. moral imperatives of having responsibility for the earth, and to do so with an intensity and ingenuity matching that shown Yale historian Paul Kennedy has examined these and relatedby previous generations in obeying the command to have trends in his new book, Preparing for the Twenty-first Cen-dominion over the planet" (emphasis added). This, I believe, turzv. . It is a book educators ought to read and read carefully. is the great challenge now before higher education. Will If the world of the 21st century turns out to be anything likecolleges and universities, the very institutions responsible for Kennedy's forecast, many of the assumptions that underlie inducting young people into adulthood, respond with "inten- curriculum, the organization of knowledge, and even institu-sity and ingenuity" to environmental deterioration that is tional operations are just not as true as they once were.undermining the world the young will inherit? [Pelikan, Y. 9 7 On the Horizon Vol. 1 No. 5 (1992).The idea of the university. Yale University Press. pp. time when increasing education looms ever larger in impor- 20-21.1 The environmental section was written by David W. tance, does it make sense to establish disincentives to pursue Orr, Environmental Studies, Oberlin College. multiple degrees? Incentives for Upgrading Worker Political Skills

Charter Schoolsan Alternative to Enhancing worker skills and making employees more com- Education Voucher Programs petitive has become a demanding requirement in an increasingly competitive marketplace. Many programs aimed at Charter schools, already instituted in two innovative statesupgrading job skills have been established over the past Minnesota in 1991 and California in 1992are under con- decade. West Virginia is among the states that took steps to sideration in 11 more states. Under these new laws, teachersencourage local businesses to improve worker skills. West are empowered to contract for organizing autonomous schools Virginia's Governor's Guaranteed Work Force Program that emphasize some special subject or learning style. provides up to $1,000 per employee for updating and otherwise enhancing employee skills. The incentive is available to Charter schools exist within the traditional public school new or existing businesses. [Staff. (1993, April). Connec- system. Though freed from burdensome traditional regulations: Total quality employees. Governing, 6 (7),15]. tion and given flexibility to pursue unique new learning experiences, they must meet specific student performance criteria. [Staff. State Legislatures (1993. May) 19 (5), 101. Implications Will government continue to look toward the private sector Implications to support learning? This alternative institutional approach expands student choice and leads to an increasing emphasis on educational special- Worker Training: Shift in Emphasis ization. Some proponents contend that wide choice andfrom Assisting Disadvantaged increasing specialization could offset the push toward vouch-Workers to Upgrading Job ers that would allow recipients to pay for Performance education in the forum of their choice. 1111 la Over the past 30 Although applied to years, the emphasis secondary school- in job training pur- suant to the Man- ing, the principles 0 could carry over to power Development II and Training Act. higher institutions of learning and to con- Comprehensive tinuing education Employment and programs. Training Adminis- tration, and Job Second College Degree Cost Could Training Partnership Act has been keyed to assisting the disadvantageddisabled, dropouts, minorities, youth, and Be Upped Four-fold dislocated workcrs. The new emphasis is on improving job skills of new entrants and enhancing capacity of workers Buffeted by perennial funding sho.zages, the California leg- already on the job, workers already making it. The shift is islature recently directed substantial increases in tuition foraway from the safety-net emphasis. The new hallmark is full-time students seeking a second college degree. Tuition at toward bringing into play higher skills required by more the 20 universities throughout the state for full-time residentdemanding Information Era jobs. Advanced industrial soci- students currently runs approximately $1.500 per year, andeties, like the United States, no longer are in a position to has been raised to $5,800 per year for full-time studentscompete with labor intensive jobs. particularly those associ- pursuing a second bachelor's or master's degree. [Staff. State ated with previous In& strial Era enterprises. Industrial na- Legislatures (1993, May) 19 (5), 101. tions are no longer able to pay top dollar for low-skilled jobs. Industrial jobs involving fragmented tasks that can easily be Implications performed with only a minimum amount of training. are Administrators fear that the large increase in costs willnaturally g -avitating to low-labor-cost countries. [Liddell. S. A. (1993. May). Putting the future on the high (skills) road. discourage most students from seeking second degrees. At a

10 On tne Horizon Vol. 1 No. 5 June 1993 State Legislatures 19 (5), 8-22]. should be done about the nearly one-fourth of students. 20 million of them, who drop out prior to completing high Implications school? In an increasingly globali zed economy. American Informa- Training Tax Amounting to 1.5% of tion Era jobs will require careful nurturing of higher level skills, analytic capabilities, and computer capabilities. Sec- Payroll ond rate educational achievement eventually translates into a Upgrading worker training, a Clinton campaign theme, would second rate economy. If the American dream of a full andmandate that businesses with over 100 employees either affluent life is to be fulfilled, education at all levels cannot be spend 1.5% of payrollfor training or pay an equal amount into allowed to drift. a federally controlled training fund. U.S. firms recognized for their outstanding worker training. Xerox. Motorola, and Redressing the Imbalance Between Hewlett-Packard, spend in excess of 3% of payroll for em- Educational Preparation for ployee training. Among comparable Japanese companies, College-Bound and Non-College- about 6% of payroll is spent for worker training. Bound Highschoolers Upgrading worker-training could amount to as much as $17 billion in added costs. U.S. firms already spend an estimated One program championed by President Clinton entails estab- $30 billion for worker training: much of this expenditure goes lishing youth apprenticeship programs that link educatorsto upper management and higher skill jobs. The Clinton plan with businesses. European experience in this area is lightwould be designed to assure training that reaches down into years beyond the U.S.. and much can be learned from theirall ranks. experience. A tentative approach unveiled by the Adminis- Australia enacted a similar Training Guarantee Act several tration involves three tiers: years ago. Down-under, all domestic firms with payrolls in Basic 3 Rs curriculum through grade 10 excess of $200,000 Australian dollars were required to spend 1.5% of payroll for training. The onus of this requirement fell Emphasis on communication skills, analytical thinking, and most heavily on small businesses that had been providing no problem solving for grades I 1 and 12, combined with on-the- training. Big businesses felt little additional burden because job internships in most were al- chosen fields of in- ready spending terest In an increasingly globalized more than 1.5% Technical and fortraining. professional skill- economy, American Information What did sting building emphasis Era jobs Will require careful nur- the big compa- during grade 13. nies was the ad- turing of higher level skills, ana- ditional paper Certificates of mas- work required tery for various dis- lytic capabilities, and computer for accounting ciplines would be capabilities. and reporting. cooperatively de- whichadded veloped by educa- nothing to train- tors and business ing. [Liddell, S. A. (1993, May). Putting the future on the high interests. Uniform standards would be devised to assure(skills) road. State Legislatures, 19 (5), 8-22; Reason,(1993, consistency among the several states. Funding amounting to March), p. 10]. $270 million for 1994 would rise to $500 million by 1997. The $1.2 billion cost might be difficult for Congress to pass,Implications at least until addressing deficit spending and the $3.1 trillion national debt. [Liddell, S. A. (1993, May). Putting the futureWith education achievement faltering, employers in the on the high (skills) road. State Legislatures 19 (5), 8-221. public as well as private sectors are likely to be called upon to pick up the slack. Government mandates specifying a fixed Implications percentage of payroll for educational purposes almost certainly will increase funding for continuing education. As Are college bound high school students pampered and fa- educa.tion costs soar, employer a: istance will help assure vored? If so, what should be done about the forgotten half of that worker skills keep pace with the times. high school graduates who don't enroll in college? What On the Horizon Vol. 1 No. 5 June 1993 Social Indicators: Key Statistics and current public sthool reform efforts are pseudo-innovation. Provoking or provocative or both, Perelman's conclu- That Drive Education Reform sions are supported by a strong foundation of facts and research. Tuition, room. and board at the most expensive U.S. College (Bennington) is $17,790 per year. Compare this with incar- Perelman can find almost no connection between what passes ceration costs per prison inmate, which range betweenfor research in our colleges of education and the real science $24,000-$50,000 per year. and technology of learning. He says that even if a researcher made a tremendous breakthrough in learning research, there Implications is no effective method to deliver this innovation to the professor or student without a commercial learning industry Misplaced priorities: why should society spend more to jail a person than to send a student to college? Taxpayer revolt looms as increasing crime swells Perelman's framework is the real world of innovation as the prison population and requires practiced by huge outlays to build additional our other major jails. The political section was Why should society spend industries. He written by Graham T. T. Molitor. demonstrates President of Public Policy Fore- moreito jail a person than the impossibil- casting, Inc. and Vice President of to send a student to col- ity of effective the World Future Society. innovation in lege? the $500 billion education industry when R&D funding is less than 0.1% of expenditures. Books The market for learning technology is very weak in our School's Out: Hyperlearning, the educational system. Capital investment in productivity tools per teachT-worker is less than $1.000. For the real workers, New Technology and the End of the students, capital investment is less than $50. Competitive Education service businesses invest 10 times more per worker. For high technology businesses the figure is over 100 times higher. Reviewed by Theodore C. Kraver Currently only a few dozen small military and university Learning/Research/Enterprise Inc. based institutes and laboratories are working on HL technologies. The largest, the Beckman Institute for Advanced Lewis Perelman applies an outstanding collection of re-Science and Technolo2y, with 600 professors and students, sources, from his Harvard doctorate to his directorship ofinvestigates mind, thought, and learnin2. This research effort Hudson Institute's Project Learning 2001. to his book School'spales in comparison with federal and corporate research on Out ( 1992). He concludes that transforming education makesenergy, aviation, health, electronics, and agriculture. as much sense as transforming the horse. Research on horses Perelman's proposed action steps may incite controversy could not have transformed them into automobiles or pro-amone educators, but they are a normal way of life for duced a modern transportation system. Perelman believesinnovative business and aovernmental a2encies. For educa- schools (kindergarten through university ) will not evolvetion. Perelman acliiocates outlawing credentialism for all into an appropriate learning system for the information age.hiring. Our current credential system ejects the failures and This opportunity will be seized by Hyperlearnina (HL). hands out a seal of approval after the students have passed The supply-side driver is software, computer. and communi-final inspection at the end of their education. He says the cation technologies that are doubling in capability every 2 toTotal Quality Management approach of HL will produce 3 years. The market-side driver is education's staggering learning that is nearly detect-free during the continuous 93% labor costs, one of the fatal manifestations of ourlearning process. Concurrent records based on assessment socialistic educational system. As the competitive marketand achievement will replace awards for blocks of seat-time. emerges. the current educational system will simply be Accountability on the part of educators should be seen as that replacedby HL. of conipetitive vendorsnot just teachers, professors. schools. Perelman asserts that overeducation has become a "Solidcolleges or public bureaucraciesao the consumernot to Gold Life Jacket-: that effective schools are a myth: thatpoliticians or academics: achieved in real timenot in a few educational goals continue to be a fiasco: that school choicemonths. years or decades: as measured by competencynot is a diversion: that "New American Schools- are a charade:by credentials or proof of attendance.

12 On the Horizon Vol. 1 No. 5 June 1993 Not oniy does Perelman articulate the causes for the lack ofTHE SITUATION ROOM innovation in schools, he prescribes a solution based on the synergistic integration of learning, research and enterprise. HL will bypass the current systems of education. Focus willThe Media and Its Changing Nature shift to distance learning that rides on the emerging national information infrastructure, and commuters in the home andRichard Heydinger, University of workplace. Privatization should be the primary goal of re-Minnesota structuring the economics of learning. A funding innovation will trigger this privatization. Macro- Any list of factors developed as part of environmental scan- choice of schools is too blunt an instrument. The learningning would be incomplete if it did not highlight the changing customer must have micro-choice for all levels of education. role of the media. All higher education institutions need a In HL. state-provided debit cards will be used to purchaseclear and unambiguous media strategy, crafted in light of education from any provider, from anywhere on the globe, in today's media. not yesterday's. the format most effective for the customer. A few trends in the media are obvious. The electronic media HL opportunity will be accelerated by investing 3-57c ofhas become portable, with miniature cameras and recorders annual expenditures ($8 billion to $20 billion) in R&D. now smuggled into classrooms to tape unsuspecting profes- innovation. ana commercialization of the HL systems. The sors. The level of sensationalism in the media is increasing. supply-side will receive at least 2% of state budgets of public V iolence, stories of scandals, and graphic images that were supported education for R&D, to be matched with local taboo even a few years ago are part of the daily fare. funds. The set-aside of another 2-3% will increase productivity through learning technology by investing in the commer-Examples of riot-so-obvious changes in media operations are cialization of the learning products and services. me increasing number of prime time shows devoted to current affairs and current social issues. These shows are A National Institutes of Learning (NIL) will ke created, of a quick a-ad cheap to produce. The nightly newscast and the size comparable to the National Institutes ot Health (NIH). growing number of TV tabloids often cover the same issues. The NIH has a $9 billion R&D budget. The U.S. DepartmentThe demarcation between real news and "augmented" news of Education spends only a few million dollars on advancedhas become blurred. Recently. higher education issues such learning technology. as sexual harassment and tuition hikes have become topics Perelman recommends replacement of our wasteful educa- for TV tabloids. The coverage of an individual human drama, tion college diploma mills with a network of Institutes for usually reflecting larger trends, may be the subject of in- Learning, to develop learning professionals through HL and depth reports. The stalking of a student b her ex-boyfriend on-the-job training. may be the lead-in, the "tease," in the nightly news. Perelman's book moves beyond the debate on educationalAs recent data show, managerial crises now receive more reform. It develops a new paradigm to address the knowl-coverage than operational failures. The public grudgingly edge-age through learning, research, and enterprise. School 's accepts product failures, but they will not accept scandals or Out is actually a market research study for software, commu- poor judgments. Events such as the Anita Hill-Clarence nications. and learning service entrepreneurs. The globalThomas incident unleash a wave of news coverage on a opportunity for HL will render obsolete our current form ofspecific topic (e.g., sexual harassment). education and training. As the thirst for stories continues to grow almost unabated. Whether or not the HL transformation will take place is not certain characteristics of higher education make us particu- the issue. Perelman builds a strong case that it will happen.larly vulnerable to increased press scrutiny. We pride our- The central issue is whether we fight the opportunity andselves on giving all our constituents license to speak their become losers as students arid learning professionals. or as a minds. Student protests are controversies virtually staged for country apply our national talent for innovation and exploitmedia coverage. this opportunity for the benefit of all. School's Out is anThe highly intense personal nature of the educational process excellent guide for making this very personal and institu- at its best can often become, at its worst, attractive fodder for tional decision. [Perelman, L. (1992). School's out. Newnews stories. Our highly decentralized, let-it-all-hang-out. York: Morrow]. environment is a rich vein of ore for mining if you are an enterprising reporter. I Couple these characteristics with the price of education that takes an increasing portion of a family's real income and you have a recipe for more press coverage, not less. In the spirit of the Situation Room, let's examine some

13 On the Horizon Vol. I No. 5 June 1993 strategies for hese changing conditions. Dealing with theCOMMENTARY .,media is often counter intuitive. First: What should we not do in planning a media strateo? From an Age of Specialization to an We cannot change media objectives. News, by definition. is controversial and affects large numbers of people. We cannot Era of Integration turn back the clock and wish that the local newspapereditor were a booster for our local college. We cannot expecttheEd Dalton, Futures Unlimited media to place the institution's good stories on the front page.The world is moving from an Age of Specialization to an Era of Integration. For a long time, we achieved improvements in We are short sighted if we attempt to limit media access to ourproductivity by increasing specialization of three areas-- campuses. The press rightfully feels that ourcolleges aretask (the number of separate operations that must be per- carrying out the public's business, whether we are public orformed to accomplish a job), labor (the number of different private. We are also mistaken if we think we can control what people who perform the operations), and knowledge (the our own people say. amount of information that each contributing worker has What can w do? In the spirit of issues management. eachabout the entire picture). institution must de- The more spe- velop a plan for cializedthe working with the work became. media. The plan II the more coor- must include proto- dination of the cols for crisis situa- pieces was re- tions and a longer quired. This led range plan to culti- to the rise of vate a working re- middleman- lationship w ith the agement and media. In times of staffs. Layers crisis, the protocols and layers of should call for the identification of a team to track andmanagement emerged whose job sometimes amounted to assemble all the necessary information. A single spokesper-nothing more than putting back together the pieces that son should be identified to respond to reporters'inquiries, tospecialization had separated. tell our side of the story. If not, the space will be occupied with someone else's comments. We must take time to fullyinform Specialization has a point of diminishing returns, and we faculty, staff. and students so they will have the facts shouldhave passed that point. Excessive specialization has led a reporter ask for their opinions. workers to feel powerless: their jobs no longer have meaning. Too many management layers have stifled initiative and For emerging issues, we must assemble and analyze datacreativity and turned companies into lumbering giants unable from the perspective of an interested reporter. We mustto respond quickly to today's rapid changes in technology consider releasing a story in advance of the media's discov- and markets. The costs of the specialization-coordination ery, and on our terms rather than on theirs. Regular contactpattern has risen faster than the benefits. with the media and a good working relationship with our media-relations staff are essential. The world is becoming integrated, customized, individual- ized. and yet global. Organizations that continue to focus The media's scrutiny of higher education is a trend that will through lenses that recognize only the specialized, mass- intensify in the years ahead. We must be prepared with produced, mass-consumed, and local will see increased chaos. strategies that will build on this emerging trend and not sit offturbulence, and uncertainty. to the side lamenting these contemporary factsof li fe. ( If you wish to write about an issue facing higher education, pleaseFour Forces for the 90s: contact Rick Heydinger. Alliance for Higher Education.203 Globalization: Globalization means more than just selling Burton. University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455 products and services in other countries. It means the earth is (ph: 612 - 624-8586: fax: 612 - 626-74961. Rick is particu-the limit for where organizations get raw materials or where larly interested in the restructuring of higher education. He they locate plants. It means marketing to many different local would like to hear from others with similar interests. ) markets, not to a single homogeneous one. It means a company can base its headquarters in Europe. build its factory in Taiwan, and sell its product in Canada. The European Com- rnunity-directed economic unification of Europe will add a new dimension to the rules of global commerce. The recent events that have swept Eastern Europe and China will further

14 On Inc Horizon Vol. 1 No. 5 June 1993 complicate the global puzzle. Multiple Stakeholders: Satisfying multiple stakeholders' Tools demands is an idea that is spreading like wildfire. A corporate executive used to servt., one primary masterthe stock-Thinking About ToolsPart One holder; earnings per share measured ,vccess. Now we acknowledge that the stockholder is not the only one with aBernard Glassman, Pragmatix stake in the business. We see the stockholder as just one ofInformationDesign many; stakeholders include customers, employees, suppli-Whether institutional research is a small portion of your ers, regulators, and even community and environmentaloverall responsibility, you are one among many in your advocates. As Peter Drucker has noted, the business execu-institution who are part of a full/-time institutional research tive now must function like a university head or a hospital team, you traffic in information that must be used to measure administrator and try to balance the often conflicting needspast performance against objectives, and objectives against and demands of all stakeholders. one or more probable futures. Survey results, newspaper Environmental Concerns: The problems of our naturalclippings, publications like this, listserv digests, staff and environment have become front-page news. We must vigor- student and regional demographics, faculty publications and ously examine the relationship between business and thecitations and other indicators of departmental productivity, world in which it operates. The greenhouse effect, holes in theplanned versus actual budgets... it's no wonder that after we ozone layer, endangered water supplies, disposal of waste evolve a means of keeping information chaos at bay we resist hazardous, toxic, and voluminousare issues that demandanything that smacks of change for change's sake. attention. So it's equally small wonder that an office can spend several Labor Shortage: The shortage of qualified labor in devel-hundred dollars on classified advertising to find staff, from oped countries is a growing problem. Available jobs call for secretaries to research associates, who will claim the ability fewer and fewer unskilled workers and more and moreuse the existing, tried-and-possibly-true, brand of software workers with specialized skills. Our problem in Americathat could have been emulated by other, easier-to-use soft- arises in part from the baby bust and the weaknesses in ourware costing $99 that almost anyone could have used. More school systems. which have combined to produce a shortageon that in a moment. of people capable of mastering the skills required forWhile we are considering the merits of the various arguments tomorrow's work. in this and other media to rethink, re-engineer, re-invent, When we take another look at these forces, this time through restructure and regroup, we should look at the the handling of the new lenses, each of them can be seen to relate to a shift information in our own bailiwicks and ask whether there is a from specialization to integration: discrepancy between the way it is actually being done and the way we envision the workplace of, not just tomorrow, but Globalization (e.g., the unification of Europe) means today. Was someone "promoted" to network administrator integrating the separate pieces of our world into one globalbecause of a demonstrated ability to read a word-processor economy. manual? Are we using SAS and SAS programmers to manage Multiple stakeholders means integrating the interests ofnumbers that recent spreadsheets (Microsoft Excel is but one many separate parties into a new concept of the unifiedexample) can handle just as readily, and display far better, at interest of the whole corporation. a tiny fraction of the cost? Is all of this happening because it is still possible for one entrenched individual to pose as a Environmental concerns means integrating organiza-computer guru? tions and the physical environment in which they operate. Ultimately, the way information is handled is at least em- Labor shortage means upgrading qualified labor in de-blematic, probably symptomatic, and possibly diagnostic of veloped countries through increased involvement in educa-what is right and wrong with an institution. Indeed, the tion and training, integrating the corporation with the societydifference between information and every other kind of from which it draws both its customers and its workforce. thing-of-value challenges the concept of institution as we We have mcved from an Age of Specialization to an Era ofthink about it today. So as we think about our institutions, Integration. We must view the world in a new way if we are let's think hard about the tools we use to understand, sustain to attack successfully the problems and opportunities thatand change those institutions. An educational organization, face us. like an entire civilization, that permits its tools and tool-users to dictate the present, need not wonder for long whether it has a future. On the Horizon VoL I No. 5 June 1993 From the Editor (continued from p ness rather than the American taxpayer." Ted concludes, "This shows the value of dispersed. privatized and cost-free implications. You make me recognize 'the bigger picture.' olutions to problems rather than the types of central. public Keep up the great work!" Many thanks for those kind words.and costly solutions that have so reduced our competitive Nancy. edge over the past 60 years." In another letter to the editor. Theodore Micceri. University We thank Nancy and Ted for writing in. and we would like of South Florida. commented on an article in our previewto invite all our readers to do likewiseperhaps in response issue concerning the Boren bill. We had said that the bill, to Tcd's letter (abbreviated above)or to any of the articles which supports undergraduate study abroad and graduate printed in On the Horizon. training of language and area studies specialists, will be a step toward equipping students with the cultural and linguistic On another note: Jonathan Fife, Editor. ASHETERIC Higher expertise to compete effectively in the new international Education Report Series, wants to ascertain the feasibility of environment. Ted agrees that multicultural expertise pro-commissioning biannual reports focusing on an environmen- vides benefits, but contends that lineuistic expertise is not tal scan of higher education. These reports would include all required of Enelish speakers because English is "the closestof the information items in our data base (with their implica- thing to an 'international language' throughout the world... tions for colleees and universities) collected in our continu-

particularly ... amongnations that are involved heavily in ous scanning process. Please complete the form inserted in international trade." Ted says that a variety of aeencies in this copy indicatine your sentiment about the desirability of foreign countries offer English language training programsthe scan becoming a part of the ASHE/ER1C series. We will due to the need to communicate with first world businesses. forward your reply to Jon. Finally, he argues that the process of sensitizing youngThe October issue of On the Horizon is in process already. So Americans to the world's cultural diversity can be fulfilled byrenew your subscriptions now. And please consider this: a those Americans who take positions throuehout the world site license entitles you to both a personal copy and an easily teaching English. Since these young men and women are reproducible-for-distribution copy that identifies your orga- employed by foreign governments, private businesses andnization and site license number. schools. they can "attain cultural and frequently lineuistic expertise at the expense of the foreign government or busi-

Until October. ... JLM

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