Overcrowded As Normal: Governance, Adaptation, and Chronic Capacity Stress in the England and Wales Prison System, 1979 to 2009
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The London School of Economics and Political Science Overcrowded as normal: Governance, adaptation, and chronic capacity stress in the England and Wales prison system, 1979 to 2009 Simon Bastow A thesis submitted to the Department of Government of the London School of Economics for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, London, January 2012 Declaration I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the MPhil/PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that my thesis consists of 99,629 words. 2 Abstract Why do public policy systems sustain chronic conditions despite general consensus that these conditions are detrimental to overall performance? The answer is because they are, in one way or another, sustainable. Systems find ways of sustaining manageable and acceptable equilibrium between demand for their services and their supply. Yet in doing so, they develop ways of coping with and normalizing situations of chronicness. This research is about chronic capacity stress (CCS) in a large and complex public policy system. CCS may be caused by excessive demand for services. It may also be caused by inadequate supply. Either way, it is a property of sustainable equilibrium between the two, and therefore must be understood in these dynamic terms rather than as just the product of one or the other. I examine overcrowding in the England and Wales prison system as an archetypal case of CCS. It starts with the assumption that the prison system should in theory be set up to deal with the demands made upon it. In doing so, it examines the way in which the system itself has coped with, normalized, and sustained crowding over the years. I have conducted in-depth interviewing with former ministers, top officials, governors, and other key actors, as well as extensive quantitative analysis covering three decades. I develop four inter-related themes as a part of a ‘problematique’ which explains why CCS is sustained: ambivalence towards rehabilitation, coping and crisis culture, benign resistance, and obsolescence and redundancy. Constrained autonomy of actors and their adaptive behaviours are key to understanding how the system sustains CCS, and how it is able to function despite CCS. Ultimately, I show how three groups of public policy theory – public choice, cultural theory, and governance - are vital aspects of an overall explanation, but that independently they are insufficient to explain why chronicness sustains, and therefore must be integrated into a more holistic, governance-style explanation. CCS can be seen as a function of governance dysfunction. 3 Contents List of Figures and Tables 6 Acknowledgements 9 Introduction 11 Chapter 1 The limits of theory in explaining chronic capacity stress 20 1.1 Strategic actors, rational choices, and alignment problems 22 1.2 Adding in culture, beliefs, and values 29 1.3 Seeing the whole – governance, architecture and steering 35 1.4 Why we need a more integrated approach 44 Chapter 2 A more holistic governance-style approach 49 2.1 The ‘holistic trinity’ – values, system, and environment 50 2.2 Value-based goals of prison in a changing environment 56 2.3 System design and meeting value-based goals 63 2.4 Imposing value-based goals and resistance in the system 67 2.5 How system design keeps pace with environment change 71 2.6 Integrating four loops into one – the ‘problematique’ 75 Chapter 3 Performance improvement and managerialism as a basis for legitimacy 81 3.1 Productivity analysis as a proxy for performance 82 3.2 Adjusting productivity to account for performance 88 3.3 Countervailing dynamics of managerialist change 99 Chapter 4 Measuring capacity and setting crowding standards 115 4.1 Ex ante and ex post standards for prison capacity 116 4.2 Two capacity standards 120 a. Certified Normal Accommodation (CNA) 120 b. Operational Capacity (Op Cap) 127 4.3 Perceptions of how these two standards have performed 132 4.4 Control through counterbalance between standards 138 4 Chapter 5 Senior ministers, and the limits of their influence on capacity questions 144 5.1 Seeing the capacity problem from the ministerial perspective 145 5.2 Autonomy of ministers to shape and impact CCS 151 5.3 Constraints on ministerial autonomy to reform the system 159 Chapter 6 Top officials, and the interface between political and operational 174 6.1 The shift towards managerial and operational cultures 175 6.2 The managerial challenge of making the system work 179 6.3 Autonomy of senior officials to influence capacity 186 6.4 How senior officials are constrained by the system 191 Chapter 7 Governors, staff, and strategies of local adaptation 201 7.1 Managing prisoners, cost savings, and physical assets 202 7.2 How governors are constrained by the centre 208 7.3 Autonomy of governors to influence capacity in their prisons 217 Chapter 8 Privately contracted prisons – new setting, same condition 226 8.1 Constraints on the autonomy of the private sector 227 8.2 The ‘contractualization’ of crowding and capacity stress 236 8.3 Operational autonomy and comparisons with the public sector 242 Chapter 9 Chronic capacity stress - a function of governance dysfunction 252 9.1 Return to the problematique 253 9.2 Individual actors, constrained autonomy, and adaptation 261 9.3 Theoretical implications of the holistic approach 267 9.4 Prospects for breaking out of the chronic condition 275 Annex A – Research design and methods 285 Annex B – Bibliography 305 Annex C – Background on the prison system and prison population 318 Annex D – List of interviewees and references for quotations – NOT na INCLUDED IN THE BOUND COPY - For examiners only 5 List of Figures and Tables Figures 1.1 Key relationships between actors in the prison system 24 1.2 How shaping behaviour leads to under-supply of capacity 25 2.1 Integrating the trinity in a holistic relationship, and four potential 53 misalignments 2.2 Collapse of the rehabilitative ideal 59 2.3 Number of receptions of prisoners sentenced to immediate 60 imprisonment, by length of sentence 2.4 Number of receptions of prisoners sentenced to immediate 60 imprisonment, by type of offence 2.5 Reoffending rates reported to parliament for adult males, within two 61 years of discharge from custody 2.6 Adding in the ‘coping and crisis culture’ loop 64 2.7 Adding in the ‘direct or benign resistance’ loop 68 2.8 Expenditure at different levels of the prison system, 1979 to 2009 69 2.9 Adding in the ‘sustained obsolescence and redundancy’ loop 74 2.10 The problematique 76 3.1 Total factor productivity in the prison system, 1979 to 2009 85 3.2 Trends in labour productivity in the prison system, 1979 to 2009 86 3.3 Average annual number of prisoner escapes, per 1000 prisoners 90 3.4 Index of disturbances and riots across the prison system 91 3.5 Percentage of prisoners ‘tripled’ or ‘doubled’ in cells designed for 92 one, since 1945 3.6 Rate of self-inflicted deaths in custody, per 1000 prisoners 92 3.7 Indicators of effective capacity management in the prison system 96 3.8 Revised productivity tracks after adjustments for performance quality 99 3.9 Comparing indexed rates of change in crowding and quality-adjusted 101 productivity 3.10 Rates of reoffending within two years after discharge from different 104 types of prison, for sentences less than 12 months and more than 12 months 3.11 Reference to crowding made by HM Inspectorate reports, and specific 109 focus of the reference, 1998 to 2009 4.1 Crowding in local prisons and remand centres, measured against CNA 124 4.2 Crowding in adult closed training prisons, measured against CNA 124 4.3 Crowding in all other types of prisons, measured against CNA 124 4.4 Legend showing different levels of severity of crowding above CNA, 125 with reference to Figures 4.2 to 4.4 below 4.5 The relationship between average CNA, Op Cap, and the prison 130 population in all prisons, since 2004 5.1 Number of mentions of ‘crowding’ in Parliament, by type of role of 153 the speaker 6.1 Number of new prisoner places, by type of accommodation 181 6 6.2 Number of new prisoner places, by type of prison 181 6.3 Estimated ‘headroom’ capacity in the prison system, and rates of 194 executive release under End of Custody Licence (ECL) 7.1 Flow of prisoners processed IN and OUT of a local prison 205 7.2 Box plots showing average daily movement of prisoners processed IN 205 and OUT of Birmingham prison from Jan to Dec 2008 7.3 Numbers of mentions of POA and PGA in national newspapers, and 216 proportions of mentions relating to crowding issues 8.1 Growth in market share for privately contracted prisons 228 9.1 The problematique rehearsed. 254 9.2 Indexed rates of prison crowding and quality-adjusted productivity 255 since 1979 9.3 Fallacy of a linear conception of under-supply and over-supply 271 A1 Alternative ways of calculating quality adjustment in total factor 303 productivity Tables 1.1 Four cultural theory archetypes, and how they relate to CCS 30 1.2 Three dimensions of governance 36 1.3 Key features of New Public Management (NPM)