CQR Political Polling

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

CQR Political Polling Published by CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc. www.cqresearcher.com Political Polling Do polls accurately measure public attitudes? mart phones, social media and the Internet have made it easier than ever for people to make their views known, but the new technology can make it S harder for political pollsters to gather and measure public opinions with precision or consistency. They face public suspicions of partisanship, reluctance to provide candid answers and — as cellphone use grows — difficulty reaching respondents by the traditional method of random calls to household landlines. meanwhile, critics charge that the news media pay too much attention to “horse-race” polls showing who leads in political races Statistician Nate Silver predicted Barack Obama would win the 2012 presidential election in his and not enough to candidates’ policy ideas. The 2014 elections, FiveThirtyEight.com blog, which aggregates polls rather than relying on a single survey. Critics say in which pollsters miscalled the results of a number of closely media and pollsters put too much emphasis on the so- called “horse race” aspect of election campaigns and not enough on substance. watched races, cast a harsh spotlight on the industry, but pollsters contend their record has improved over the years. Some experts see promise in the increasing use of “opt-in” polls such as those I on the Internet, but the approach is controversial. THIS REPORT N THE ISSUES ....................123 S BACKGROUND ................130 I CHRONOLOGY ................131 D CURRENT SITUATION ........136 E CQ Researcher • Feb. 6, 2015 • www.cqresearcher.com AT ISSUE ........................137 Volume 25, Number 6 • Pages 121-144 OUTLOOK ......................139 RECIPIENT Of SOCIETY Of PROfESSIONAL JOURNALISTS AwARD fOR BIBLIOGRAPHY ................142 EXCELLENCE u AmERICAN BAR ASSOCIATION SILvER GAvEL AwARD THE NEXT STEP ..............143 POLITICAL POLLING Feb. 6, 2015 THE ISSUES SIDEBARS AND GRAPHICS Volume 25, Number 6 MANAGING EDITOR: Thomas J. Billitteri • Do polls show a persistent Pollsters Finding House - [email protected] 123 political bias? 124 holds Harder to Reach ASSISTANT MANAGING EDITORS: maryann • will Twitter and facebook fewer homes have landlines. Haggerty, [email protected], Kathy Koch , [email protected], supplant conventional polling? Scott Rohrer, [email protected] • Does the media’s avid inter - 125 Most Americans See Bias est in polls hurt democracy? in Polls SENIOR CONTRIBUTING EDITOR: Three-fourths of adults say Thomas J. Colin polls are slanted. [email protected] BACKGROUND CONTRIBUTING WRITERS: Brian Beary, 126 It’s Not the Last Straw for marcia Clemmitt, Sarah Glazer, Kenneth Jost, Early Polling Iowa’s Famous Poll Reed Karaim, Peter Katel , Barbara mantel, 130 GOP still embraces it, but Tom Price, Jennifer weeks The first political poll was an critics say it’s a platform for 1824 survey by a Harrisburg, SENIOR PROJECT EDITOR: Olu B. Davis Pa., newspaper. extremists. EDITORIAL ASSISTANT: Ethan mcLeod Spending on Political Dewey vs. Truman 128 INTERN: Sarah King 133 In 1948, pollsters erroneously Polls Rising predicted that Republican Total spending on political FACT CHECKERS: Eva P. Dasher, polling by Republican and michelle Harris, Nancie majkowski Thomas Dewey would defeat Democratic party committees President Harry S. Truman. has risen over the past decade in both presidential Exit Polling 133 media missteps involving exit and midterm elections. polls occurred in 1980 and An Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc. 1996. 131 Chronology Key events since 1824. VICE PRESIDENT AND EDITORIAL DIRECTOR, HIGHER EDUCATION GROUP: ‘Push Polls’ Cast Negative michele Sordi CURRENT SITUATION 132 Light on Candidates Polling groups say the practice EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, ONLINE LIBRARY AND REFERENCE PUBLISHING: Presidential Race is manipulative. 136 Experts say pollsters will play Todd Baldwin a prominent role in the 2016 At Issue: presidential election. Copyright © 2015 CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Pub - 137 Can “nonprobability” polls lications, Inc. SAGE reserves all copyright and other reliably reflect public rights herein, unless pre vi ous ly spec i fied in writing. Internet Polling opinion? 136 Pollsters are debating the No part of this publication may be reproduced reliability of opt-in Internet electronically or otherwise, without prior written surveys. permission. Un au tho rized re pro duc tion or trans mis - FOR FURTHER RESEARCH sion of SAGE copy right ed material is a violation of Robot Interviewers federal law car ry ing civil fines of up to $100,000. 138 For More Information Some pollsters are consider - 141 Organizations to contact. CQ Press is a registered trademark of Congressional ing using digital interviewers. Quarterly Inc. Bibliography CQ Researcher (ISSN 1056-2036) is printed on acid-free 142 Selected sources used. OUTLOOK paper. Pub lished weekly, except: (march wk. 4) (may wk. 4) (July wk. 1) (Aug. wks. 3, 4) (Nov. wk. 4) and The Next Step (Dec. wks. 3, 4). Published by SAGE Publications, Inc., Shades of Gray 143 Additional articles . 139 No consensus exists about 2455 Teller Rd., Thousand Oaks, CA 91320. Annual full - the future of political polling. Citing CQ Researcher service subscriptions start at $1,131. for pricing, call 143 Sample bibliography formats. 1-800-818-7243. To purchase a CQ Researcher report in print or electronic format (PDf), visit www.cqpress. com or call 866-427-7737. Single reports start at $15. Bulk purchase discounts and electronic-rights licensing are also available. Periodicals postage paid at Thousand Oaks, California, and at additional mailing offices . POST - mAST ER: Send ad dress chang es to CQ Re search er , 2600 virginia Ave., N.w., Suite 600, wash ing ton, DC 20037. Cover: Getty Images/Bloomberg/David Paul Morris 122 CQ Researcher Political Polling BY CHUCK MCCUTCHEON A variety of people and THE ISSUES institutions conduct political polls, often attached to par - efore November’s elec - ticular candidates and parties, tions, many political and most of their surveys are B pollsters thought they kept secret. Others, whose had the races nailed: Incumbent work is made public, are af - Sen. mark warner, D-va., was filiated with colleges, think a shoo-in for re-election to the tanks and news outlets. Poll - U.S. Senate, and Georgia’s con - n sters also help interest groups w o tests for Senate and governor r and political donors hone their B b would be so close that runoff o messages or decide to whom B elections would be needed. / they should give money. h c Those predictions turned t In his 2012 re-election cam - a p s out to be very wrong. warner i paign, President Barack D - sweated out a win by less s Obama’s strategists created an e than 1 percentage point, while m “analytics department” that i T Republicans prevailed by such d was five times larger than the n large margins in Georgia that o one Obama used in 2008. The m h no runoffs were necessary. c department combined statis - i R Polls in several other states / tics from pollsters with ma - o t also were off the mark. o terial from other sources, in - h P “Boy, is that an industry cluding social-media sites such P that needs some houseclean - A as Twitter. It used that infor - ing,” University of virginia po - Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., debates Republican strategist mation to run tests predicting Ed Gillespie, left, during the 2014 Virginia Senate race. litical scientist Larry Sabato Polls predicted Warner would easily win re-election, but how people could be influ - said the morning after the he just squeaked by. In another dramatic polling miscue enced by certain appeals. election. 1 — also in Virginia — polls failed to anticipate House Obama’s campaign also The November results — Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s stunning primary defeat by used polls to develop a so - along with polls that failed a virtually unknown college professor. Despite their phisticated understanding of failures, polls are expected to play a key role in the to anticipate House majority 2016 presidential race and other contests. who would vote in key states. Leader Eric Cantor’s GOP pri - In Ohio alone, it collected mary loss in virginia in June polling data from about 29,000 to a virtually unknown college professor Political strategist Patrick Ruffini, a people — an enormous sample that — dramatically illustrated the challenges former technology official at the Re - enabled the campaign to study Obama’s confronting pollsters. Even as technol - publican National Committee (RNC), appeal across a wide demographic ogy has made it easier than ever for has a more dismal view. “If anything,” spectrum. 4 people to give their opinions, consis - he said, “the challenge for polling right The news media make a big deal tently measuring those opinions with now is to keep it from getting any out of political polls. Surveys showing pinpoint precision has grown exceed - worse than it is.” 2 a president’s job-approval rating, or ingly difficult. with the 2016 presidential Polling has become entangled in the results of polls on a controversial race beginning to unfold, the stakes the nation’s prevailing polarized po - topic such as the Affordable Care Act, are high for pollsters: Their work plays litical climate, with both politicians become prominent news. And polls a crucial role in influencing the flow and the public questioning the validity draw intensive coverage in the months of campaign donations and determining of polls. At a 2011 rally in Iowa, 2008 and years leading up to elections. overall public support for candidates. GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Election polls require assessments Political polling “is in a state of tran - Palin colorfully disparaged surveys of what groups will show up to vote sition, certainly,” says michael Link, showing that many Americans regarded and in what proportion to other groups. president of the American Association her unfavorably: “Polls? .
Recommended publications
  • Words That Work: It's Not What You Say, It's What People Hear
    ï . •,";,£ CASL M T. ^oÛNTAE À SUL'S, REVITA 1ENT, HASSLE- NT_ MAIN STR " \CCOUNTA ;, INNOVAT MLUE, CASL : REVITA JOVATh IE, CASL )UNTAE CO M M XIMEN1 VlTA • Ml ^re aW c^Pti ( °rds *cc Po 0 ^rof°>lish lu*t* >nk Lan <^l^ gua a ul Vic r ntz °ko Ono." - Somehow, W( c< Words are enorm i Jheer pleasure of CJ ftj* * - ! love laag^ liant about Words." gM °rder- Franl< Luntz * bril- 'Frank Luntz understands the power of words to move public Opinion and communicate big ideas. Any Democrat who writes off his analysis and decades of experience just because he works for the other side is making a big mistake. His les sons don't have a party label. The only question is, where s our Frank Luntz^^^^^^^™ îy are some people so much better than others at talking their way into a job or nit of trouble? What makes some advertising jingles cut through the clutter of our crowded memories? What's behind winning campaign slogans and career-ending political blunders? Why do some speeches resonate and endure while others are forgotten moments after they are given? The answers lie in the way words are used to influence and motivate, the way they connect thought and emotion. And no person knows more about the intersection of words and deeds than language architect and public-opinion guru Dr. Frank Luntz. In Words That Work, Dr. Luntz not only raises the curtain on the craft of effective language, but also offers priceless insight on how to find and use the right words to get what you want out of life.
    [Show full text]
  • Climate Change Communication in Late-Night Comedy Television
    Fordham University Fordham Research Commons Student Theses 2015-Present Environmental Studies Fall 9-14-2020 Live From New York, It’s Environmental Science! Climate Change Communication in Late-Night Comedy Television Serena A. Ingram Follow this and additional works at: https://research.library.fordham.edu/environ_2015 Live From New York, It’s Environmental Science! Climate Change Communication in Late-Night Comedy Television Serena A. Ingram Abstract This thesis explores why traditional climate change communication often fails in the mainstream news media and how late-night comedy television circumvents these problems. These late-night shows provide humorous news coverage that holds politicians and the press accountable for enabling denialist rhetoric. The first chapter sources data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication to outline the issues of climate change and public understanding of climate science. The second chapter describes how rhetorical analysis can identify effective or ineffective climate communication strategies. It also discusses the emotional factors that surround climate change, and how humor strengthens communication and unifies individuals toward a common goal. The third chapter addresses the issue of politically spun news and information biases in climate reporting. It details how political figures influence news coverage of climate change and spin the news to reinforce their own agendas. The fourth chapter provides examples and analysis of climate change related segments from Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, The Daily Show with Trevor Noah, and Saturday Night Live’s “Weekend Update.” The fifth chapter applies the principles of late-night comedy and climate change communication to potential government policy and more mainstream television news.
    [Show full text]
  • Council Accused of Pro-Roe Push Poll
    MELVILLE CITY HEo RALD Volume 25 N 19 Melville City’s own INDEPENDENT newspaper li treet, remantle Saturday May 10, 2014 Leeming to Kardinya Edition - etterboed to eeming, ateman, ull ree, ardinya, h a www.fremantleherald.com/melvilles urdoh, urdoh niversity, illagee and inthrop *Fortnightly Email: [email protected] B ell tolls for etla d s by STEVE GRANT • Save Beeliar etlands members are reeling following speculation eeliar etlands says te bbott government is set to the arnett government should fund the construction of Roe 8 stop pushing oe until appeals by making it s first toll road against its environmental Teyre promising mass action to approval have been heard stop te proect Photo by Matthew heir all follows transport Dwyer minister ean alder onfirming he’s negotiating funding with the Find the Fake Ad & WIN a bbott government that would Chance for a Feast for 2 be tied to the highway slugging 42 Mews Rd, truies with ’s first toll road Fremantle (The Sunday Times, May 4, 2014). member andi hinna told the Herald her group was still trying For details, please see Competitions to digest the information, given premier olin arnett had said the Want good pay? Some easy, gentle long-planned etension through the exercise? Deliver the Herald to amsar-listed wetlands wouldn’t local letterboxes! It’s perfect for be built in this term of parliament all ages, from young teens to She says the announcement seniors looking to keep active. If maes a moery of government proesses, with appeals against you’re reliable we may just have the ’s environmental approval a round near you (we deliver of the road still to be heard.
    [Show full text]
  • Telephone Calls and Text Messages in State Senate, District
    STATE OF MAINE Commission Meeting 09/30/2020 COMMISSION ON GOVERNMENTAL ETHICS Agenda Item #5 AND ELECTION PRACTICES 135 STATE HOUSE STATION AUGUSTA, MAINE 04333-0135 To: Commission From: Michael Dunn, Esq., Political Committee Registrar Date: September 22, 2020 Re: Complaint against Public Opinion Research On September 15, 2020, the Commission received a complaint from the Lincoln County Democratic Committee (the “LCDC”) alleging that unknown persons acting under the name of Public Opinion Research have engaged in a “push poll” to influence the general election for State Senate, District #13. ETH 1-8. Voters have received phone calls from live callers asking questions that are likely designed to influence their vote and text messages linking to an online survey conducted through the SurveyMonkey.com containing similar questions. According to the LCDC, the organizers of the telephone campaign have violated three disclosure requirements in Maine Election Law: • the callers have not provided any “disclaimer statement” identifying who paid for the calls, • the calls do not meet special disclosure requirements applicable to push polls in Maine, and • no independent expenditure report has been filed relating to the calls, text messages, and online survey. The LCDC requests that the Commission initiate an investigation into these activities. The Commission staff has been unable to make contact with Public Opinion Research as part of our preliminary investigation. We cannot find an online presence for a polling or political consulting firm with that name. A “push poll” is a paid influence campaign conducted in the guise of a telephone survey. The telephone calls are designed to “push” the listener away from one candidate and towards another candidate.
    [Show full text]
  • Job Killers” in the News: Allegations Without Verification
    FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE, JUNE 2012 “Job Killers” in the News: Allegations without Verification STUDY AUTHORS1 Peter Dreier, Ph.D. Christopher R. Martin, Ph.D. Dr. E.P. Clapp Distinguished Professor of Politics Professor and Interim Head Chair, Urban & Environmental Policy Department Department of Communication Studies Occidental College University of Northern Iowa Phone: (323) 259-2913 FAX: (323) 259-2734 Phone: (319) 273-6118 FAX: (319) 273-7356 Website: http://employees.oxy.edu/dreier Website: http://www.uni.edu/martinc EXECUTIVE SUMMARY “Job Killers” in the News: Allegations without Verification “…there’s a simple rule: You say it again, and you say it again, and you say it again…and about the time that you’re absolutely sick of saying it is about the time that your target audience has heard it for the first time.”2 -- Frank Luntz, Republican pollster A comprehensive study analyzes the frequency of the “job killer” term in four mainstream news media since 1984, how the phrase was used, by whom, and—most importantly— whether the allegations of something being a “job killer” were verified by reporters in their stories. The study’s key findings include the following: • Media stories with the phrase “job killer” spiked dramatically after Barack Obama was elected president, particularly after he took office. The number of stories with the phrase “job killer” increased by 1,156% between the first three years of the George W. Bush administration (16 “job killer” stories) and the first three years of the Obama administration (201 “job killer” stories). • The majority of the sources of stories using the phrase “job killer” were business spokepersons and Republican Party officials.
    [Show full text]
  • The Long Red Thread How Democratic Dominance Gave Way to Republican Advantage in Us House of Representatives Elections, 1964
    THE LONG RED THREAD HOW DEMOCRATIC DOMINANCE GAVE WAY TO REPUBLICAN ADVANTAGE IN U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ELECTIONS, 1964-2018 by Kyle Kondik A thesis submitted to Johns Hopkins University in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts Baltimore, Maryland September 2019 © 2019 Kyle Kondik All Rights Reserved Abstract This history of U.S. House elections from 1964-2018 examines how Democratic dominance in the House prior to 1994 gave way to a Republican advantage in the years following the GOP takeover. Nationalization, partisan realignment, and the reapportionment and redistricting of House seats all contributed to a House where Republicans do not necessarily always dominate, but in which they have had an edge more often than not. This work explores each House election cycle in the time period covered and also surveys academic and journalistic literature to identify key trends and takeaways from more than a half-century of U.S. House election results in the one person, one vote era. Advisor: Dorothea Wolfson Readers: Douglas Harris, Matt Laslo ii Table of Contents Abstract…………………………………………………………………………………....ii List of Tables……………………………………………………………………………..iv List of Figures……………………………………………………………………………..v Introduction: From Dark Blue to Light Red………………………………………………1 Data, Definitions, and Methodology………………………………………………………9 Chapter One: The Partisan Consequences of the Reapportionment Revolution in the United States House of Representatives, 1964-1974…………………………...…12 Chapter 2: The Roots of the Republican Revolution:
    [Show full text]
  • Ye Olde Publisher Vs. Mark Gerzon - Push Polls! Opinion Questions of the Day
    • Letters: • L-Chastain chastizes Bag Ban People! • L-Ruemmler says Water District didn’t answer? • L-Luppens opine Eagle-Vail collapse imminent! • Avon & di Simone’s bag ban destroys freedom! Business Briefs – www.BusinessBriefs.net – Volume 10, Number 9 - July 27 thru Aug 30th, 2017 Distributed free online & to almost 900 locations in Vail, Beaver Creek & Eagle County, Colorado. 970-280-5555 . Injury Attorneys • Auto/Motorcycle • Ski/Snowboard • Dog Bites Rep. Diane Mitsch Bush • Other Injuries Free Consult broke a promise to serve! Percentage Fee Bloch & Chapleau 970.926.1700 Ye Olde Publisher vs. VailJustice.com Edwards/Denver Mark Gerzon - push polls! d, The Bad, The Ugly! The Goo • The Stupid: Most of the Avon Council - potted plants in street! • The Surprising: The amount of locals who don’t use VVMC! • The Defective Thinkers: Our elected Climate Change nutcases! • The Obfuscators: Dems afraid of illegal voting commission! lied to voters about ObamaCare! TraTcraec eT Tyyleer rA Agegnecy ncy • The Liars: Republicans who 97 Main9 7S Mtraeine Stt r•e eSt u! Situeit eW W-110066 ! •Ed wEadrwds,a CrOd s8,1 6C32O 81632 • They Don’t Care - 90% of Americans don’t care about Russia. 9P7h0o-n9e:2 967-04-932760-4 •37 0T !T Eymlaeirl:@ ttAylemrr@@Famamfam.c.coom m “We are proud to serve the Vail Valley providing the community with ““WWee arree prroudoud to servvee tthehe VVailail VValleyalley prroovvidingiding tthehe communittyy • Sad: The loss of Lew Meskiman, Ursula Fricker, Dick Blair! exwwitcitethhll eexxxcellentncellentt servi cseer avvicenicced pandro dpruroductoductcts ttsos mtoe meetet al lall y oyyouruourr ri insnsuurranceranceance needsneeds.
    [Show full text]
  • Policy and Politics by the Numbers;Аfor the President
    5/12/2017 Policy and Politics by the Numbers; For the President, Polls Became a Defining Force in His Administration ­ washingtonpost.com ­ search nation, world… Policy and Politics by the Numbers; For the President, Polls Became a Defining Force in His Administration [FINAL Edition] The Washington Post ­ Washington, D.C. Subjects: Series & special reports; Public opinion surveys; Policy making; Presidency Author: Harris, John F Date: Dec 31, 2000 Start Page: A.01 Section: A SECTION One night a week, a select group of White House aides and Cabinet members would file into the Yellow Oval Room in the White House residence. And Bill Clinton, the most polished and talkative politician of his era, for once would let someone else do the talking: a disheveled man who even friends say was ill at ease except when the conversation turned to numbers. The man was Clinton's pollster. The weekly residence meeting was the place where this president got his fix of the data that drove a presidency. As Clinton prepares to leave office 20 days from now, even his sharpest critics bow to his mastery of politics. This was a president who understood his times and became the dominant voice of them, who faced every conceivable adversity yet managed still to survive and prosper. What is less understood is that Clinton's political gifts were more than the magic of personality. They were a set of precise techniques that relied on constant gauging of public opinion, and constant responses to it in ways large and small. So Clinton's legacy is in many ways a story about polls.
    [Show full text]
  • Online Media and the 2016 US Presidential Election
    Partisanship, Propaganda, and Disinformation: Online Media and the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election The Harvard community has made this article openly available. Please share how this access benefits you. Your story matters Citation Faris, Robert M., Hal Roberts, Bruce Etling, Nikki Bourassa, Ethan Zuckerman, and Yochai Benkler. 2017. Partisanship, Propaganda, and Disinformation: Online Media and the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. Berkman Klein Center for Internet & Society Research Paper. Citable link http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:33759251 Terms of Use This article was downloaded from Harvard University’s DASH repository, and is made available under the terms and conditions applicable to Other Posted Material, as set forth at http:// nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:dash.current.terms-of- use#LAA AUGUST 2017 PARTISANSHIP, Robert Faris Hal Roberts PROPAGANDA, & Bruce Etling Nikki Bourassa DISINFORMATION Ethan Zuckerman Yochai Benkler Online Media & the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This paper is the result of months of effort and has only come to be as a result of the generous input of many people from the Berkman Klein Center and beyond. Jonas Kaiser and Paola Villarreal expanded our thinking around methods and interpretation. Brendan Roach provided excellent research assistance. Rebekah Heacock Jones helped get this research off the ground, and Justin Clark helped bring it home. We are grateful to Gretchen Weber, David Talbot, and Daniel Dennis Jones for their assistance in the production and publication of this study. This paper has also benefited from contributions of many outside the Berkman Klein community. The entire Media Cloud team at the Center for Civic Media at MIT’s Media Lab has been essential to this research.
    [Show full text]
  • Hillary Clinton's Campaign Was Undone by a Clash of Personalities
    64 Hillary Clinton’s campaign was undone by a clash of personalities more toxic than anyone imagined. E-mails and memos— published here for the first time—reveal the backstabbing and conflicting strategies that produced an epic meltdown. BY JOSHUA GREEN The Front-Runner’s Fall or all that has been written and said about Hillary Clin- e-mail feuds was handed over. (See for yourself: much of it is ton’s epic collapse in the Democratic primaries, one posted online at www.theatlantic.com/clinton.) Fissue still nags. Everybody knows what happened. But Two things struck me right away. The first was that, outward we still don’t have a clear picture of how it happened, or why. appearances notwithstanding, the campaign prepared a clear The after-battle assessments in the major newspapers and strategy and did considerable planning. It sweated the large newsweeklies generally agreed on the big picture: the cam- themes (Clinton’s late-in-the-game emergence as a blue-collar paign was not prepared for a lengthy fight; it had an insuf- champion had been the idea all along) and the small details ficient delegate operation; it squandered vast sums of money; (campaign staffers in Portland, Oregon, kept tabs on Monica and the candidate herself evinced a paralyzing schizophrenia— Lewinsky, who lived there, to avoid any surprise encounters). one day a shots-’n’-beers brawler, the next a Hallmark Channel The second was the thought: Wow, it was even worse than I’d mom. Through it all, her staff feuded and bickered, while her imagined! The anger and toxic obsessions overwhelmed even husband distracted.
    [Show full text]
  • Politics in Science 1 Running Head: Politics And
    Politics in Science 1 Running Head: Politics and Science Is research in social psychology politically biased? Systematic empirical tests and a forecasting survey to address the controversy Orly Eitan† INSEAD Domenico Viganola† Stockholm School of Economics Yoel Inbar† University of Toronto Anna Dreber Stockholm School of Economics and University of Innsbruck Magnus Johannesson Stockholm School of Economics Thomas Pfeiffer Massey University Stefan Thau & Eric Luis Uhlmann†* INSEAD †First three and last author contributed equally *Corresponding author: Eric Luis Uhlmann ([email protected]) Politics in Science 2 Abstract The present investigation provides the first systematic empirical tests for the role of politics in academic research. In a large sample of scientific abstracts from the field of social psychology, we find both evaluative differences, such that conservatives are described more negatively than liberals, and explanatory differences, such that conservatism is more likely to be the focus of explanation than liberalism. In light of the ongoing debate about politicized science, a forecasting survey permitted scientists to state a priori empirical predictions about the results, and then change their beliefs in light of the evidence. Participating scientists accurately predicted the direction of both the evaluative and explanatory differences, but at the same time significantly overestimated both effect sizes. Scientists also updated their broader beliefs about political bias in response to the empirical results, providing
    [Show full text]
  • Transforming Marketing Forward Looking Information & Other Information
    TRANSFORMING MARKETING FORWARD LOOKING INFORMATION & OTHER INFORMATION Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements This communication may contain certain forward-looking statements (collectively, “forward-looking statements”) within the meaning of Section 27A of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended and Section 21E of the U.S. Exchange Act and the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, as amended, and “forward-looking information” under applicable Canadian securities laws. Statements in this document that are not historical facts, including statements about MDC’s or Stagwell’s beliefs and expectations and recent business and economic trends, constitute forward-looking statements. Words such as “estimate,” “project,” “target,” “predict,” “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “potential,” “create,” “intend,” “could,” “should,” “would,” “may,” “foresee,” “plan,” “will,” “guidance,” “look,” “outlook,” “future,” “assume,” “forecast,” “focus,” “continue,” or the negative of such terms or other variations thereof and terms of similar substance used in connection with any discussion of current plans, estimates and projections are subject to change based on a number of factors, including those outlined in this section. Such forward-looking statements may include, but are not limited to, statements related to: future financial performance and the future prospects of the respective businesses and operations of MDC, Stagwell and the combined company; information concerning the proposed business combination
    [Show full text]