Published by CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc. www.cqresearcher.com Political Polling Do polls accurately measure public attitudes? mart phones, social media and the Internet have made it easier than ever for people to make their views known, but the new technology can make it S harder for political pollsters to gather and measure public opinions with precision or consistency. They face public suspicions of partisanship, reluctance to provide candid answers and — as cellphone use grows — difficulty reaching respondents by the traditional method of random calls to household landlines. meanwhile, critics charge that the news media pay too much attention to “horse-race” polls showing who leads in political races Statistician Nate Silver predicted Barack Obama would win the 2012 presidential election in his and not enough to candidates’ policy ideas. The 2014 elections, FiveThirtyEight.com blog, which aggregates polls rather than relying on a single survey. Critics say in which pollsters miscalled the results of a number of closely media and pollsters put too much emphasis on the so- called “horse race” aspect of election campaigns and not enough on substance. watched races, cast a harsh spotlight on the industry, but pollsters contend their record has improved over the years. Some experts see promise in the increasing use of “opt-in” polls such as those I on the Internet, but the approach is controversial. THIS REPORT N THE ISSUES ....................123 S BACKGROUND ................130 I CHRONOLOGY ................131 D CURRENT SITUATION ........136 E CQ Researcher • Feb. 6, 2015 • www.cqresearcher.com AT ISSUE ........................137 Volume 25, Number 6 • Pages 121-144 OUTLOOK ......................139 RECIPIENT Of SOCIETY Of PROfESSIONAL JOURNALISTS AwARD fOR BIBLIOGRAPHY ................142 EXCELLENCE u AmERICAN BAR ASSOCIATION SILvER GAvEL AwARD THE NEXT STEP ..............143 POLITICAL POLLING Feb. 6, 2015 THE ISSUES SIDEBARS AND GRAPHICS Volume 25, Number 6 MANAGING EDITOR: Thomas J. Billitteri • Do polls show a persistent Pollsters Finding House - [email protected] 123 political bias? 124 holds Harder to Reach ASSISTANT MANAGING EDITORS: maryann • will Twitter and facebook fewer homes have landlines. Haggerty, [email protected], Kathy Koch , [email protected], supplant conventional polling? Scott Rohrer, [email protected] • Does the media’s avid inter - 125 Most Americans See Bias est in polls hurt democracy? in Polls SENIOR CONTRIBUTING EDITOR: Three-fourths of adults say Thomas J. Colin polls are slanted. [email protected] BACKGROUND CONTRIBUTING WRITERS: Brian Beary, 126 It’s Not the Last Straw for marcia Clemmitt, Sarah Glazer, Kenneth Jost, Early Polling Iowa’s Famous Poll Reed Karaim, Peter Katel , Barbara mantel, 130 GOP still embraces it, but Tom Price, Jennifer weeks The first political poll was an critics say it’s a platform for 1824 survey by a Harrisburg, SENIOR PROJECT EDITOR: Olu B. Davis Pa., newspaper. extremists. EDITORIAL ASSISTANT: Ethan mcLeod Spending on Political Dewey vs. Truman 128 INTERN: Sarah King 133 In 1948, pollsters erroneously Polls Rising predicted that Republican Total spending on political FACT CHECKERS: Eva P. Dasher, polling by Republican and michelle Harris, Nancie majkowski Thomas Dewey would defeat Democratic party committees President Harry S. Truman. has risen over the past decade in both presidential Exit Polling 133 media missteps involving exit and midterm elections. polls occurred in 1980 and An Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc. 1996. 131 Chronology Key events since 1824. VICE PRESIDENT AND EDITORIAL DIRECTOR, HIGHER EDUCATION GROUP: ‘Push Polls’ Cast Negative michele Sordi CURRENT SITUATION 132 Light on Candidates Polling groups say the practice EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, ONLINE LIBRARY AND REFERENCE PUBLISHING: Presidential Race is manipulative. 136 Experts say pollsters will play Todd Baldwin a prominent role in the 2016 At Issue: presidential election. Copyright © 2015 CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Pub - 137 Can “nonprobability” polls lications, Inc. SAGE reserves all copyright and other reliably reflect public rights herein, unless pre vi ous ly spec i fied in writing. Internet Polling opinion? 136 Pollsters are debating the No part of this publication may be reproduced reliability of opt-in Internet electronically or otherwise, without prior written surveys. permission. Un au tho rized re pro duc tion or trans mis - FOR FURTHER RESEARCH sion of SAGE copy right ed material is a violation of Robot Interviewers federal law car ry ing civil fines of up to $100,000. 138 For More Information Some pollsters are consider - 141 Organizations to contact. CQ Press is a registered trademark of Congressional ing using digital interviewers. Quarterly Inc. Bibliography CQ Researcher (ISSN 1056-2036) is printed on acid-free 142 Selected sources used. OUTLOOK paper. Pub lished weekly, except: (march wk. 4) (may wk. 4) (July wk. 1) (Aug. wks. 3, 4) (Nov. wk. 4) and The Next Step (Dec. wks. 3, 4). Published by SAGE Publications, Inc., Shades of Gray 143 Additional articles . 139 No consensus exists about 2455 Teller Rd., Thousand Oaks, CA 91320. Annual full - the future of political polling. Citing CQ Researcher service subscriptions start at $1,131. for pricing, call 143 Sample bibliography formats. 1-800-818-7243. To purchase a CQ Researcher report in print or electronic format (PDf), visit www.cqpress. com or call 866-427-7737. Single reports start at $15. Bulk purchase discounts and electronic-rights licensing are also available. Periodicals postage paid at Thousand Oaks, California, and at additional mailing offices . POST - mAST ER: Send ad dress chang es to CQ Re search er , 2600 virginia Ave., N.w., Suite 600, wash ing ton, DC 20037. Cover: Getty Images/Bloomberg/David Paul Morris 122 CQ Researcher Political Polling BY CHUCK MCCUTCHEON A variety of people and THE ISSUES institutions conduct political polls, often attached to par - efore November’s elec - ticular candidates and parties, tions, many political and most of their surveys are B pollsters thought they kept secret. Others, whose had the races nailed: Incumbent work is made public, are af - Sen. mark warner, D-va., was filiated with colleges, think a shoo-in for re-election to the tanks and news outlets. Poll - U.S. Senate, and Georgia’s con - n sters also help interest groups w o tests for Senate and governor r and political donors hone their B b would be so close that runoff o messages or decide to whom B elections would be needed. / they should give money. h c Those predictions turned t In his 2012 re-election cam - a p s out to be very wrong. warner i paign, President Barack D - sweated out a win by less s Obama’s strategists created an e than 1 percentage point, while m “analytics department” that i T Republicans prevailed by such d was five times larger than the n large margins in Georgia that o one Obama used in 2008. The m h no runoffs were necessary. c department combined statis - i R Polls in several other states / tics from pollsters with ma - o t also were off the mark. o terial from other sources, in - h P “Boy, is that an industry cluding social-media sites such P that needs some houseclean - A as Twitter. It used that infor - ing,” University of virginia po - Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., debates Republican strategist mation to run tests predicting Ed Gillespie, left, during the 2014 Virginia Senate race. litical scientist Larry Sabato Polls predicted Warner would easily win re-election, but how people could be influ - said the morning after the he just squeaked by. In another dramatic polling miscue enced by certain appeals. election. 1 — also in Virginia — polls failed to anticipate House Obama’s campaign also The November results — Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s stunning primary defeat by used polls to develop a so - along with polls that failed a virtually unknown college professor. Despite their phisticated understanding of failures, polls are expected to play a key role in the to anticipate House majority 2016 presidential race and other contests. who would vote in key states. Leader Eric Cantor’s GOP pri - In Ohio alone, it collected mary loss in virginia in June polling data from about 29,000 to a virtually unknown college professor Political strategist Patrick Ruffini, a people — an enormous sample that — dramatically illustrated the challenges former technology official at the Re - enabled the campaign to study Obama’s confronting pollsters. Even as technol - publican National Committee (RNC), appeal across a wide demographic ogy has made it easier than ever for has a more dismal view. “If anything,” spectrum. 4 people to give their opinions, consis - he said, “the challenge for polling right The news media make a big deal tently measuring those opinions with now is to keep it from getting any out of political polls. Surveys showing pinpoint precision has grown exceed - worse than it is.” 2 a president’s job-approval rating, or ingly difficult. with the 2016 presidential Polling has become entangled in the results of polls on a controversial race beginning to unfold, the stakes the nation’s prevailing polarized po - topic such as the Affordable Care Act, are high for pollsters: Their work plays litical climate, with both politicians become prominent news. And polls a crucial role in influencing the flow and the public questioning the validity draw intensive coverage in the months of campaign donations and determining of polls. At a 2011 rally in Iowa, 2008 and years leading up to elections. overall public support for candidates. GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Election polls require assessments Political polling “is in a state of tran - Palin colorfully disparaged surveys of what groups will show up to vote sition, certainly,” says michael Link, showing that many Americans regarded and in what proportion to other groups. president of the American Association her unfavorably: “Polls? .