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Malaysia Infrastructure Chinese Contractors – Friend Or Foe? 19 SECTOR BRIEFING number DBS Asian Insights DBS Group44 Research • June 2017 Malaysia Infrastructure Chinese Contractors – Friend or Foe? 19 DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 44 02 Malaysia Infrastructure Chinese Contractors – Friend or Foe? Chong Tjen-San, CFA Senior Equity Analyst DBS Group Research [email protected] Produced by: Asian Insights Office • DBS Group Research go.dbs.com/research @dbsinsights [email protected] Goh Chien Yen Editor-in-Chief Jean Chua Managing Editor Geraldine Tan Editor Martin Tacchi Art Director 19 DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 44 03 04 Executive Summary 05 Growing Chinese Participation CIDB Statistics MOU with China Skewed Towards Infrastructure Encroaching on Both Building and Infrastructure Space IJM a Key Beneficiary of ECRL 16 Conclusion – Winners and Losers Liberalisation of Malaysia’s 18 Construction Industry Overview of Malaysia’s 22 Construction Sector 26 Update on Major Contracts DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 44 04 Executive Summary Influx of Chinese hinese participation in Malaysia’s construction space has been the most apparent contractors in building jobs with competitive financing packages and flexible payment methods but has also encroached into the infrastructure space. Statistics of the Construction Industry Development Board (CIDB) show that in 2015, foreign Ccontractors clinched 15.4%, or MYR19b, of the total construction project value. Chinese contractors led the way with MYR8b worth of projects. The litmus test Two key rail projects totalling MYR64b awarded to Chinese contractors are Gemas- JB double tracking – a consortium of China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC), China Railway Engineering Corporation (CREC), and China Communications Construction (CCC) – and the East Coast Rail Line, to China Communications Construction Company Limited (CCCC). Both are also part of the ASEAN Master Plan for Connectivity. While we acknowledge this creates more competition, these projects are unlikely to take off without the associate funding and hence would still provide orderbook growth via subcontracting roles. Malaysian contractors’ meaningful participation in both projects would be the litmus test to ensure continuity of their presence in the Kuala Lumpur–Singapore High Speed Rail (HSR) project. Winners and losers Contractors which have the highest exposure to private-sector condominium projects would be more affected. This will be partly mitigated for contractors which have internal property arms (IJM and Suncon). Contractors with a strong execution track record, coupled with project management expertise, will still be beneficiaries of key government infrastructure projects (Gamuda and IJM). The most affected would be the smaller ones. A study showed that 89% of the 54,345 local contractors are small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), while the only comparable grade contractors to the foreign contractors (Grade 6 and 7) comprise the remaining 11%. DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 44 05 Growing Chinese Participation China provides funding he Asian Development Bank estimates that Asia needs US$8t to fund needs in Asia infrastructure construction for the 10 years to 2020. China is well aware that its future is closely tied to that of Asia’s and naturally is responsive to Asia’s infrastructure needs via the One Belt, One Road initiative. Since 2009, China has Tbeen the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ (ASEAN) largest trading partner, and ASEAN has been China’s third-largest trading partner since 2011. China-based contractors are increasingly becoming more aggressive and dominant in the ASEAN infrastructure landscape. This is a certainly welcome by the ASEAN countries, given the high cost associated with executing the ASEAN Master Plan of Connectivity. Based on a study by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, US$50b or US$10b per annum are investments associated with Chinese companies from 2013- 2017. This forms about 17% of the region’s infrastructure needs in 2015. What do they bring Of late, we have been seeing more participation from Chinese contractors in the Malaysian with them? market either directly or through joint ventures with local contractors. In our view, we think the edge that Chinese contractors have over other foreign contractors – as well as our local ones – are access to funding and materials, cheaper labour, as well as fast turnaround in construction. More importantly, they enjoy strong support from the Chinese government – via cheaper funding largely from mainland China lenders and the Export-Import Bank of China, the country’s export credit agency. They are also supported by the China Export and Credit Insurance Corporation (SINOSURE), China’s policy-oriented insurance company that provides export credit insurance. According to my colleague who follows the Chinese contractor space in Hong Kong, Chinese infrastructure companies are very keen on the ASEAN markets to boost their growth as they already have a sizeable presence in Africa and Middle East. This has largely driven by the Chinese government via government-to-government initiatives and companies will tag along with government agencies when exploring the overseas markets. Generally, the government will appoint the contractors according to the types of projects. As an example, China Communications Construction Company Limited (CCCC) is perceived to be strong in port-related projects and China Railway Construction Corporation Limited DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 44 06 (CRCC) and China Railway Group Limited (CREC) in rail-based projects. But the individual company will also assess the viability of the projects. Generally, overseas projects generate better margins. Feedback from local contractors has been mixed in terms of the presence of Chinese contractors in Malaysia. Some believe the competition is healthy and the associated financing these contractors bring is crucial in order for the larger projects to take off. Others are of the view the larger infrastructure projects should be earmarked for local players, citing the lower cost base of the Chinese players, which are government-owned and are able tolerate lower margins. Diagram 1. Foreign contractors’ presence in Malaysia (2014-2016) Source: CIDB CIDB Statistics Changing landscape CIDB’s statistics in Diagram 2 show that in 2015, foreign contractors clinched 15.4%, or MYR19b, of the total construction project value. The majority of the projects that these foreign contractors participated in are on average MYR250m, with the highest value being a MYR3.6b residential project. Chinese contractors lead the way with MYR8b spread across 25 projects. DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 44 07 Diagram 2. Foreign contractors’ share of projects by value (2015) Diagram 3. Number of projects by foreign contractors (2015) Diagram 4. Number of foreign contractors by country (2015) Sources: CIDB DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 44 08 MOU with China Skewed Towards Infrastructure The signing of 14 agreements worth MYR144b between Malaysia and China in November 2016 is also testament to the countries’ closer working relationship. Of these, the infrastructure-related ones are: 1. Engineering, Procurement, Construction, and Commissioning Agreement between Malaysia Rail Link Sdn Bhd, CCCC, and China Communications Construction Company (M) Sdn Bhd (CCCCM) 2. Memorandum of Agreement for Investment, Development, and Construction of Malacca Gateway Project (KAJ Development and Power China) 3. Heads of Agreement between Bandar Malaysia Sdn Bhd and Greenland Holdings Group Overseas Investment Company Limited in respect of the Proposed Purchase of Land and Development thereon in Bandar Malaysia 4. Heads of Agreement between Selat PD Sdn Bhd and CCCC Dredging (Group) Co Ltd. 5. Memorandum of Agreement between KAJ Development Sdn Bhd, Power China, Shenzhen Yantian Port, and Rizhao Port for partnership collaboration on Malacca Gateway Port. Encroaching on Both Building and Infrastructure Space The two more recent projects awarded to Chinese parties have been in the infrastructure space and are rail-based. These are the Gemas-JB double tracking (Consortium of CRCC, CREC, and CCCC) and the ECRL. Both are also part of the ASEAN Master Plan of Connectivity and will be integral to bridging trade in and out of Asia. While we acknowledge that this creates more competition for Malaysian contractors, these projects are unlikely to take off without the associate funding from the Chinese and hence would still provide orderbook growth via subcontracting roles. We expect the government to be pragmatic in terms of allowing local contractors to participate via subcontracting roles DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 44 09 Diagram 5. Federal government debt Diagram 6. Federal government debt-to-GDP ratio Sources: Ministry of Finance The trick is funding The Malaysian government’s debt-to-GDP ratio fell to about 53.3% in 2016 from 54.5% in 2016. The official threshold limit is 55% while the guidance in 2017 is for it to stabilise at around 53%. Assuming 53%-55% government debt-to-GDP in 2017, the government can incur an additional MYR45.6b-72.1b net debt this year before breaching the threshold. The guaranteed debt already is at about 15.5% of GDP in 2016 (MYR191.1b). Hence, the current state of government finances does not provide it with a great amount of flexibility to finance other large-scale projects. It will have to resort to private financing initiatives or foreign-based funding. DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 44 10 Still, we do expect
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