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Master Thesis Nisha Aslan 2 Nijmegen School of Management Human Geography: Conflicts, Territories & Identities Academic year 2012 -2013 Date: September 25, 2013 The Transnistria Conflict And the European Union’s Foreign Policy Endeavour in Moldova Nisha Aslan S0613886 Supervisor: Haley Swedlund Second Reader: Roos Pijpers Master Thesis Nisha Aslan 2 The Transnistria Conflict and the European Union’s Foreign Policy Endeavour in Moldova By: Nisha Aslan Master Thesis Nisha Aslan 3 Preface The master thesis in front of you is the result of several months of research and writing for the master Conflicts, Territories & Identities at the Centre for International Conflict Analysis & Management (CICAM) and the Human Geography department of the Radboud University Nijmegen. I have tried to give an understanding of the Transnistria conflict and the contribution the EU makes to stabilizing Moldova in general and to conflict resolution in Transnistria specifically. Besides all the existing academic literature and policy papers that were made accessible to me through the electronic database of the Radboud University in Nijmegen, there are some people who deserve to be mentioned. First of all I want to thank my internship supervisors at the Netherlands Embassy in Bucharest, Romania: Huub Alberse and Paul Ymkers. They always took the time to listen and showed an interest in helping me with my research, be it through feedback, by just listening or by allowing me to use their network to find interviewees. Besides this I want to thank all the interviewees who contributed to the quality of this paper by letting me pick their knowledgeable brains on the subject. Nisha Aslan Master Thesis Nisha Aslan 4 Table of Contents PREFACE .............................................................................................................................................................. 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS ......................................................................................................................................... 4 LIST OF FIGURES..................................................................................................................................................... 6 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................. 7 1.1 THE PROBLEM & RESEARCH OBJECTIVE(S) ............................................................................................................... 9 1.1.1 Research question(s) ............................................................................................................................ 10 1.1.2 Societal & Academic Relevance of the Research Project ........................................................................ 11 1.2 METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................................................................. 12 1.2.1 Benefits & Disadvantages .................................................................................................................... 12 1.2.2 The selection of the case ...................................................................................................................... 14 1.2.3 Research Methods ............................................................................................................................... 15 1.2.4 Analysis ............................................................................................................................................... 18 CHAPTER 2: HISTORY & GEO-POLITICS ......................................................................................................... 19 2.1 Moldova: from principality to state ......................................................................................................... 19 2.1.1 Unification with Romania .................................................................................................................... 21 2.1.2 How Transnistria also became Moldova ............................................................................................... 22 2.1.3 Language changing the status quo....................................................................................................... 23 2.1.4 THE TRANSNISTRIA CONFLICT .......................................................................................................................... 26 2.2 THE PRESENT SITUATION IN MOLDOVA ................................................................................................................. 27 2.3 GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................................... 29 2.3.1 Romania & Ukraine ............................................................................................................................. 31 CHAPTER 3: ANALYZING THE CONFLICT ........................................................................................................ 33 3.1 DISCOURSE ON CAUSES OF CONFLICT .................................................................................................................... 33 3.1.1 Relative Deprivation & Horizontal Inequalities ..................................................................................... 34 3.1.2 An Easily Solvable conflict .................................................................................................................... 36 3.1.3 Obstacles to resolve the conflict ........................................................................................................... 38 3.1.4 Overview ............................................................................................................................................. 39 3.2 CONFLICT RESOLUTION ..................................................................................................................................... 41 3.2.1 Negotiations & Agreements ................................................................................................................. 42 3.2.2 The Break Up ....................................................................................................................................... 44 3.2.3 Merkel & Medvedev hit it off ............................................................................................................... 44 3.2.4 Confidence Building Working Groups ................................................................................................... 46 3.2.5 Problems and Expectations .................................................................................................................. 47 3.3 THE EU’S TOOLS FOR CONFLICT RESOLUTION ......................................................................................................... 48 3.3.1 Mediation............................................................................................................................................ 48 3.3.2 Transnitsria through a security lens ..................................................................................................... 50 3.3.3 Soft Security & Soft Power ................................................................................................................... 52 CHAPTER 4: THE EU AS A FOREIGN POLICY ACTOR IN MOLDOVA .............................................................. 55 Master Thesis Nisha Aslan 5 4.1 ASSOCIATION AGREEMENT ................................................................................................................................ 56 4.1.1 Visa Liberalization ............................................................................................................................... 57 4.1.2 DCFTA & Judicial Reform ...................................................................................................................... 57 4.1.3 EUBAM ................................................................................................................................................ 59 4.1.4 SCBM .................................................................................................................................................. 59 4.2 OBSTACLES FOR FOREIGN POLICY ........................................................................................................................ 60 4.2.1 The Soft Power Obstacle ...................................................................................................................... 62 4.2.2 EXTERNAL OBSTACLES.................................................................................................................................... 63 4.3 CRITIQUE ...................................................................................................................................................... 64 4.4 CONCLUSION .................................................................................................................................................. 67 BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................................................................................................................. 69 APPENDIX A ....................................................................................................................................................... 78 INTERVIEW PROTOCOL ........................................................................................................................................... 78 SUMMARY .........................................................................................................................................................
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