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TA Securities Monday, December 19, 2016 FBMKLCI: 1, 637.79 a Member of the TA Group

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TA Securities Monday, December 19, 2016 FBMKLCI: 1, 637.79 a Member of the TA Group TA Securities Monday, December 19, 2016 FBMKLCI: 1, 637.79 A Member of the TA Group MENARA TA ONE, 22 JALAN P. RAMLEE, 50250 KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA TEL: +603-20721277 / FAX: +603-20325048 WWeeeekkllyy SSttrraatteeggyy Market View, News In Brief: Corporate , Economy , a n d Share Buybacks THIS REPORT IS STRICTLY FOR INTERNAL CIRCULATION ONLY* Kaladher Govindan Tel: +603-2167 9609 [email protected] www.taonline.com.my Market View Modest Year-end Window Dressing Could be on the Cards The local benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) stayed range bound last week, after earlier gains evaporated as the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, for the second time in nearly a decade. However, the Fed guided for three rate hikes next year instead of two as earlier expected, forcing a weaker ringgit as foreign selling persisted to dampen local sentiment. Week-on-week, the FBM KLCI eased 3.63 points, or 0.22 percent to 1,637.79, with gains on Petronas Dagangan (+30sen), Hap Seng Consolidated (+21sen) and Public Bank (+18sen) overshadowed by losses on BAT (-RM1.54), Petronas Gas (-48sen), Hong Leong Financial Group (-40sen) and PPB Group (-22sen). Average daily traded volume and value last week mildly improved to 1.32 billion shares and RM1.66 billion, compared to the 1.12 billion shares and RM1.45 billion the previous week. So, as widely expected, the US interest rate went up by 25 basis points last week but the market was taken aback by the US Federal Reserve’s more hawkish stance now. It has indicated three interest rate increases for next year, versus two previously, which are still below the consensus expectations of four hikes under the worst-case scenario. Whether these speculations will come true or not are highly dependent on the new US president- elect’s fiscal policy moves and steadfastness in implementing some of those controversial election promises after assuming his new post next year. Thus, the Fed is expected to stay pat from further tightening in next January but may react in March if the economic conditions warrant. An aggressive tightening will deal a severe blow to the emerging market currencies, especially if China loses the battle in defending its currency after wasting about US1 trillion of its foreign reserves in defending the yuan in the last one year. It has imposed various measures in the last one month to curb outflows and some of these measures include limiting the amount of renminbi individuals and corporations can remit outside the country and imposing a maximum limit on different type of investments by China corporations overseas, which may have implications on their amount and timing of investments into Malaysia as well. If the US, under the new premiership, sticks to its offensive strategy of labelling China as currency manipulator and slapping a 45% import tariff on China, yuan’s fall will have dramatic impact on other regional currencies, including Ringgit with a high foreign shareholding of 48.4% or RM173 billion in the Malaysian Government Securities as at end- November 2016 after a net outflow of RM11.5 billion during the month. A row between the US and China last week over a US underwater drone that was seized by China in international waters near Scarborough Shoal could escalate the prevailing tension among the two world’s largest economies. That aside, the impending release of US economic data this week like the PMI, final reading of 3Q16 GDP, core PCE, new home sales, etc. are expected to indicate sustained improvement, which will support the Fed’s recent tightening action. Page 1 of 7 TA Securities A Member of the TA Group 19-Dec-16 Thus, these uncertainties could limit near-term upside for FBMKLCI from any window dressing activities as continued foreign selling pressure could undermine even the most undervalued blue chips. However, investors should look to accumulate on weakness some of these fundamentally undervalued stocks such as Axiata (TP: RM5.35) (foreign shareholding estimated to be around 11% vs. 29% in August 2012), CIMB (TP: RM5.60) (estimated at 27% vs. 43% in June 2011) and TM (TP: RM7.95) (estimated at 13% vs. 24% in July 2014) as their foreign shareholding levels have dwindled significantly from their peaks in the last five years. Axiata is expected to see some recoveries at Celcom and its Indonesian operations next year and will be a net beneficiary of a weaker ringgit as circa 70% of its revenue and EBITDA originate from overseas. CIMB should reap the benefit from its cost saving initiatives and recovery in its Indonesian operation. Telekom holds a dominant position in fixed broadband and could unlock the latent demand through the rollout of HSBB2 and SUBB. The launch of webe completes the quad play offering and could steal away market share from the incumbent mobile players. Page 2 of 7 TA Securities A Member of the TA Group 19-Dec-16 News In Brief Corporate Sime Darby Berhad (Sime Darby) has issued and allotted 157.4mn new Sime Darby Shares pursuant to the 4th DRP. The new shares were listed and quoted on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad last week. With the listing of the new shares, the enlarged issued and paid-up share capital of Sime Darby is RM3.4bn comprising 6.8bn of Sime Darby Shares . (Bursa Malaysia) Comment: To recap, Sime Darby has requested to issue 241.8mn new shares with an approved issue price of RM7.55/share based on 5-day volume weighted average market price in November 2016. This would provide Sime Darby with approximately RM1.8bn of gross proceeds. We maintain our neutral view on this as the issuance will dilute the EPS by around 1% to 31.8sen for FY17 but reduce net gearing to 0.26x from 0.35x. Note that 65% of the shares were issued and allotted. No change in our earnings forecast and maintain Sell with a target price of RM7.45. Serba Dinamik Holdings Bhd, an engineering solutions provider in the oil and gas (O&G) and power sectors, has received approval to list. It is said to be looking to raise more than RM600mn. Serba Dinamik’s core activity is providing engineering solutions to the O&G and power-generation industries with operational facilities in Malaysia, Indonesia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and the United Kingdom. When contacted, Serba Dinamik group chief executive officer Datuk Dr M.A. Karim Abdullah says the company is hoping to list on Bursa Malaysia by February next year with a market capitalisation of RM2bn. (The Star) The US$600mn (RM2.7bn) capital injection into Axiata Group Bhd’s wholly-owned subsidiary, edotco Group Sdn Bhd, can be seen as a strategic move that will help to boost the latter’s growth potential within the regional telecommunications tower services industry. At a briefing on the company’s plans moving forward, Edotco chief executive officer Suresh Sidhu emphasised there are opportunities aplenty within the region. (The Star) Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB) could potentially see a change in investor profile, moving forward, after it decided that it is time to power up returns for shareholders and turn up the volume for growth from overseas. Risk-seeking investors could soon count TNB as part of their portfolio as the utility group, which is not usually known for growth but rather stable returns, embarks on a new 10-year plan to boost growth from overseas ventures. The utility group says earlier in the week that it will put more focus on overseas business opportunities, moving forward, as it targets to derive 20% of its earnings from overseas by 2025. (The Star) AirAsia Bhd has injected US$227mn (RM1.01bn) into its associate PT Indonesia AirAsia (IAA) to address the latter’s negative equity position. The low-cost carrier said its board had approved the subscription of the US$227mn or 3.042 trillion nominal value of perpetual capital securities issued by its 49% owned Indonesian operations. AirAsia had, last week, entered into a perpetual security purchase agreement with IAA to formalise the issuance and terms and conditions between IAA and AirAsia for the subscription. (The Star) Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank) expects its newly-launched Maybank Samsung Pay in Malaysia to boost the number of customers using contactless payments. This follows the success of the Maybank Pay launch in Malaysia in July which has seen nearly 40,000 installations of the digital wallet. Maybank group chief strategy officer Michael Foong said the bank was optimistic that more cardholders would subscribe to Maybank Samsung Pay which is the most widely-accepted contactless mobile payment service. It can be used for debit, credit and prepaid cards in numerous overseas locations too. (The Star) Naza Kia Malaysia aims to sell 6,000 units of Kia models in 2017. Naza Corp Holdings (Automotive Group) chief operating officer Datuk Samson Anand George said the new models of Kia cars to be introduced next year would help the group to achieve the 6,000 target.“ Among the models to be unveiled in 2017 are the Carnival, Rio, and Optima,” Samson said. (The Star) Page 3 of 7 TA Securities A Member of the TA Group 19-Dec-16 Gamuda Bhd net profit for the first quarter ended Oct 30 increased to RM162.1mn from RM161.2mn a year ago mainly supported by toll rate hikes of certain expressways. This was achieved on a lower revenue of RM504.9mn against RM512.8mn in the corresponding quarter last year, mainly due to tapering of underground and elevated works of the KVMRT Line 1.
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