SKEPTICISM . SCIENCE . SOCIETY

Vol 41, No 1. March 2021

MIND CONTROL

+Biodynamics, Omens, Prophets, Maps & Aliens

Australian Skeptics . www.skeptics.com.au

Skeptic_Cover_Mar21.indd 1 8/03/2021 11:22 am Volume 41 • No 1 March 21 Contents REPORTS 9 Not for Prophets 9 Adrienne Hill

FEATURES 14 20 Flick the Switch 14 17 Tim Mendham

Gift of the Gab 17

Uuumm? 20 Metafact Wash and Rinse 24 24 Brian Dunning 28 ARTICLES Redrawing the Past 28 Ray Blackwood 38 Bio Beware 32 Martin Caon 32 The Honest Tooth 38 Alex Holden 42 Word from on High? 40 Michael Garrett 40 Signs of the Times 42 Laurie Eddie

REGULARS Editorial 4 54 Around the Traps 5 Them! 12 49 Puzzles page 27 Logical place 48 Book reviews 49 What goes around 54 Forum 56 Letters 60 Quotable Quotes 62 REPORT Scams The Skeptic March 21

Adrienne Hill relates the pleasures and preoccupations on pondering the spurious predictions of . Not for Prophet

ince last June 2020, when Susan various types of psychics, tea readers US politics (Trump), and celebrities SGerbic from GSoW (Guerrilla to mediums, but they did not seem to (Jennifer Anniston). Skepticism on Wikipedia) started a take it too seriously. We commonly groan when Richard weekly trivia game online, I have been opened my eyes to brings up yet another celebrity getting to know Richard Saunders, the harm that psychics can cause when prediction. We have gotten to know who also takes part, quite well as from I attended her workshop at CSICon, Nicole Kidman, Keith Urban, and time to time we’ve been on the same hosted by the Committee for Skeptical Kylie and Dannii Minogue, just virtual team. In July we also watched Inquiry, in 2018. Being a recent to name a few, very well. We cheer NECSS (The Northeast Conference on member of Susan Gerbic’s GSoW when we get a natural disaster Science & Skepticism) together, along team, I learned about the various stings prediction because the group finds with Susan Gerbic and others in her she and her team have been involved weather patterns, volcanoes, and extensive web of connections. in. earthquakes, or as Richard types them, At one of the trivia games, Richard With this new understanding of unintentionally, “earthquacks”, much announced he was looking for people the potential damage that psychics more interesting. Rob Palmer (who to help him on his “Great Australian can bring to people emotionally and writes for ‘’ under Psychic Prediction Project”. Of course, financially, I looked forward to the the pen name of ‘The Well-Known I was very familiar with his podcast opportunity of helping with Richard’s Skeptic’) was very upset when we voice, and while the chance to work project. thought we had investigated the last with Richard was a bit daunting, I natural disaster, but Richard was kind was excited to join the project for two A SEARCH BEGINS and found more for us to examine. reasons: I was in awe of working with We meet via Zoom video conferencing One of his habits is to somehow the man behind The Skeptic Zone every Tuesday (Canada time), if find more predictions, just when we podcast, and I did not know much possible, and the group size has ranged think we are nearing the end! Even about the psychic world. from three to seven people. Richard with natural disasters the psychics My previous belief was that others gives us a prediction and a year, then manage to disappoint, with such did not truly believe in psychics. Didn’t we all set about searching the internet expected predictions as: there will be people notice the “for entertainment to find out if the prediction came true. an earthquake in California in June, or purposes only” disclaimers usually Since the psychics are Australian, we there will be record low temperatures added to the television shows? Didn’t have learned much about Australian in Canada or Russia. Our favourite they know that some psychics are politics, scandals, celebrities, natural to date: “Overseas a volcano might just really good at reading people - disasters, real estate trends, sports, and erupt.” (Julie Ware for 2010). mentalists under another name? I weather patterns. World events creep While debating how to categorize had lots of friends who had visited in occasionally, especially regarding the prediction “Sea levels increase for 9 REPORT Psychic Scams

Not for Prophet Those of us from North America The biggest laughs came from “75 Continued... have increased our vocabulary percent of babies born in 2010 will with such gems as “taking the piss” be female” (Michael Armstrong for (yanking your chain), “cyclone” 2010) and “Donald Trump will make (hurricane), and “Top End” (the a good president, and his cabinet will north of Australia), as in “Ms Godfrey be the best the US has seen for years”. Queensland and parts of NSW causing also predicted a big year of Top End (Milton Black for 2017) damage to coastlines” (Kerrie Erwin cyclones.” (Tracey Godfrey for 2003). for 2015) as too vague or incorrect, The US and Canada crew were FUN AND NOT SO FUN Kelly Burke exclaimed, “can’t we make completely confused when we read: Our group can easily and happily get a new category called this prediction is “With clucky Venus growing even distracted, usually by Richard’s cats stupid?” causing gales of laughter. brighter over the next few years, that like to walk on the keyboard, there’s no doubt family expansion is knock his camera, get our attention THE WEIRD AND WONDERFUL the name of the game.” (Jenny Blume by being cute in the laundry basket We have seen the same types of for 2011 regarding Penélope Cruz). or demand Richard play with them predictions repeated, year after year. Our responses ranged from “how can by throwing a toy repeatedly down The psychics seem to be trying to Venus cluck?” to “did Venus grow the stairs. Or by Wendy Hughes’ capitalize on the advancing age of the wings?”. But we soon learned that in dog and my dog barking at each Queen and Prince Phillip, predicting Australia it means Venus wants to have other over Zoom (international pet a death in the royal family many times a child. The “clucky” jokes have not communication that hurts Richard’s over the last 20 years. I foresee that ended, and some have declared they ears). within the next ten years, they will want to try to use the word at least The past few weeks the distractions finally get it right and say “See, I’m once every day. have mostly been about the amazing and it is worth paying happenings at the US Capitol. me money.” The psychic prediction project There is much laughter in our Queenie and Phil has a Facebook Messenger sessions. The predictions, not group and on January 6 at surprisingly, often are very vague, around 10:00 am Mountain or as Richard puts it “they are time, and 4:00 am Sydney nothing but waffle”. They are time, Susan Gerbic accidentally so “waffly” that sometimes they posteriorly dialled the group. have “Canadian maple syrup on Leonard Tramiel, Wendy them” (my Canadian spin on Hughes, Rob Palmer, Kelly the expression). A fully formed Burke, Michelle Bijkersma, prediction cannot be found, Richard Saunders, and I all causing us to shake our heads and answered the call. Rob, at move quickly to the next one: the time, was watching the “Newlyweds Penelope Cruz and ceremonial counting of the Javier Bardem have a great chart electoral votes at the Capitol, together. She’s a Taurus and he’s a so he pointed his camera at the Pisces, which is a good match for TV screen, and we watched. a start. But more importantly, his I found this very interesting, Sun (his ‘self’) is on her Jupiter since in Canada our electoral (her feelgood planet), so they can process is quite different and always cheer each other up. Plus her Some of the predictions contradict having some handy US citizens explain loving Venus opposes his passionate themselves to ensure they will come things to me was highly educational. Pluto, so the romantic sparks fly. true. A star will get pregnant or not, We did not expect to see the turmoil They have a better chance of going get a divorce or not, will be happy that happened that day live. the distance than many star couples.” or not. And sometimes they are both Together we witnessed the (Yasmin Boland for 2010) contradictory and nonsensical: “In my confusion when all talking stopped And: “Overall there’s going to be mind last night I was seeing fire ... like and we could hear the words “We are some wonderful features from mother an explosion ... but it isn’t really an in lockdown”. Our group watched earth, across the stock market, as well explosion, it’s got to be something to in horror chilling moments such as some beautiful TV shows.” (Maria do with some sort of atomic kind of as guards with guns drawn and Elita for 2007) explosion.” (Simon Turnbull for 2010) pointing at the faces in the door, 10 The Skeptic March 21

people climbing up the facade of the building and the destruction of media equipment. Isn’t it amazing that this event is nowhere to be found in the ponderings of those who claim to be able to predict the future? The psychic prediction project has turned from a team helping Richard Saunders’ research into a group of friends who talk to each other on a regular basis outside of the project. I have learned so much from this crew and I am grateful that they have welcomed me into their world. I am almost hopeful that Richard keeps finding more predictions, as long as they are natural disasters! The Great Australian Psychic Prediction Project team I have worked with to date: Michelle Bijkersma, last the end is in sight as I have had five times out of 10, there would Rob Palmer, Leonard Tramiel, Paula enormous help from my small but be no horse racing (maybe a good Lauterbach, Louis Hillman, Wendy dedicated team over much of 2020 and thing) as at its core, it needs each Hughes, Dr Angie Mattke, Kelly that 2020 is indeed the cut-off year. race to have unpredictability. With Burke and, of course, Susan Gerbic That means no predictions made for everyone backing the same horse and Richard Saunders. 2021 and beyond will be considered. to win, the industry behind racing As of writing, the project contains would collapse. Still, let’s give our Adrienne Hill is a retired high school 3224 predictions with around 650 yet seers a chance and examine the results mathematics teacher who spends her time to analyse. of 20 years of predictions for the editing Wikipedia pages for the GSoW, Being an Australian project, I Melbourne Cup. and volunteering on the Atheist Society think we might glance at some of the To date we have 55 predictions of Calgary and the Tourette OCD Alberta predictions concerning a matter of (made from 2000 to 2020) with 10 Network Boards. She lives in Calgary, Canada. vital importance to Australians, and being marked correct. Although it’s what can be more important than the true that some predicted the winning Melbourne Cup? (For non-Australians horse (5 times), some of the other RICHARD’S ADDENDUM: that’s Australia’s highest profile horse predictions marked correct are, for I STILL DIDN’T SEE IT COMING race.) example “Melbourne Cup: With the At a short talk during the 2018 Now, this is not so tongue in cheek moon in Gemini on the day, the horse Convention, I as you may think for a number of that wins this year’s Cup is predicted updated the audience as to the progress reasons. First, this topic, like any in to be a medium-high gelding with of The Great Australian Psychic the project, has the opportunity to overseas breeding, or it could be Prediction Project. (Long time readers show us that there are indeed some trained some distance from Melbourne may detect a theme here with the use people who can peer into the future. and has travelled far to the race.” of the word ‘great’ as in the Great Second, we are forced to consider (Milton Black 2006). Or “I feel like Water Divining DVD and the Great what this would mean in the case of it’s not Gai Waterhouse’s year, it is a Skeptic CD of years past.) horse racing. Like any sporting event, male trainer - Melbourne Cup.” (Jenn The aim was to assess every psychic the heart of racing is the training, Mackay 2008). prediction published in Australia since the skill of in this case the jockey, Are we being too generous to 2000 – the sort of stuff you see in the financial backing, and so on. It mark these as correct, as we would columns of “psychics’ predictions for is also the great unknown of how if they had named the actual horse? 2001”. I predicted with confidence any particular race will play out. The Regardless, the overall results are not that the whole affair would be finished excitement of jumping up and down, great for those who claim to see into by the end of 2019 and the results hoping and willing your horse to win. the future and from what we have published. Now imagine if the result was simply gathered so far, I wouldn’t be placing Alas, like most of the predictions, known before the starter’s gun was any bets based on their mystical that was wrong. However, at long fired. Even if the result was known advice. . 11