Victorian Election 1999 1999 VICTORIAN STATE ELECTION 18 September 1999 SUMMARY OF RESULTS Introduction ....................................................................................................1 Legislative Assembly Results Summary of Results ..............................................................................3 Detailed Results by District ...................................................................8 Summary of Two-Party Preferred Results ........................................... 23 Regional Summaries ........................................................................... 29 Legislative Council Results Summary of Results ............................................................................ 31 Detailed Results by Province .............................................................. 33 Summary of Two-Party Preferred Results ........................................... 37 By-Elections 1996-1999 ........................................................................................... 39 1999-2000 ........................................................................................... 41 Comparing Victorian Elections 1988 - 1999 ............................................... 42 Antony Green ABC Election Unit June 2001 Symbols .. Nil or rounded to zero * Sitting Member .... 'Ghost' candidate, where party contesting in 1996 was absent in 1999 Party Abbreviations ACS Abolish Child Support and Family Court ALP Labor Party ARP Australian Reform Party CDP Christian Democratic Party DLP Democratic Labor Party DEM Australian Democrats GRN Australian Greens HOP Hope Party IND Independents LAW Natural Naw Party LIB Liberal Party NAT National Party ONP Pauline Hanson's One Nation OTH Others SPV Shooters Party Victoria Important Dates Issue of Writs 24 August 1999 Close of Rolls 27 August 1999 Close of Nominations Noon, 3 September 1999 Election Day 18 March 1999 Return of Writs on or before 8 October (The writ for the Frankston East supplementary election was issued on 21 September with close of nominations on 1 October for polling day 16 October. The close of roll was the same as for the state election, 27 August.) 2 Victorian Election 1999 INTRODUCTION This paper contains a summary of the results of the 1999 elections for the Victorian Legislative Assembly and Legislative Council. It contains details of voting for all Assembly districts and Council provinces. Primary and two-party preferred counts are given for all electorates. The following paragraphs explain the format for the results. First Count: The vote shown for each candidate is the total primary vote received. Percentage votes are calculated as a percentage of the formal vote for each electorate. Swing is calculated by subtracting the percentage vote received by a party at the 1996 election from the percentage received in 1999. Where the parties contesting the district differ from 1996, ghost candidates indicated by "...." have been included representing candidates not contesting the 1999 election. As a result, all primary swings add to zero, subject to rounding errors. Final Count: Represents the two-candidate preferred count after the final distribution of preferences in an electorate. Two-candidate preferred percentages are calculated by dividing the two-candidate preferred vote by the formal vote. Two-candidate preferred swings are shown compared to the 1996 election. Frankston East Supplementary Election Following the death on polling day of Independent MP and candidate Peter McClellan, the poll for Frankston East was suspended, the returning officer declaring the election to have failed. With the finely balanced result on election night, the result in Frankston East became critical for the outcome of election. Held on 16 October, the results of the supplementary election have been included in all totals as part of the state election result. Following Labor's victory in Frankston East, the three Independents declared their general support for the Labor Party, the change of government taking place the following week. Two-candidate preferred versus Two-Party Preferred vote The two-candidate preferred count for an electorate is defined as the final tally after the exclusion and distribution as preferences of votes from all other candidates. At each stage of the count, the candidate with the least votes is excluded, and his or her votes are distributed to candidates remaining in the count based on the voter's preferences as filled in on the ballot paper. To achieve victory, a candidate must receive more than 50% of the vote, though in electorates where a candidate achieves victory either on the primary vote or before the final distribution of preferences, a two- candidate preferred count is carried out for information purposes. The two-party preferred count represents a distribution of preferences between candidates representing the Labor Party and the Liberal-National Party Coalition. Candidates are again excluded based on lowest progressive vote, though at some points the second lowest candidate is excluded to retain candidates representing Labor and the Coalition. In most cases, the two-party preferred count will be the same as the two-candidate preferred count. At the 1999 election, the final distribution of preferences in six electorates (Gippsland East, Gippsland West, Mildura, Shepparton, Swan Hill, Wimmera) did not represent a two-party preferred contest. In these electorates, the Victorian Electoral Commission carried out additional two-party preferred counts for information purposes. These counts have been used in the analysis on pages 23-28. The Labor Party did not contest two Legislative Council provinces. In Higinbotham, the two-candidate preferred vote of the Australian Democrat candidate has been used as the two-party preferred vote, and in Templestowe, the two-candidate preferred vote for the Greens. 1 Victorian Election 1999 A note on Preference Counts The Victorian Electoral Commission uses two methods to count preferences. On election night, and in the processing of declaration votes, an indicative throw of preferences is carried out between candidates nominated in advance as likely to be the two final candidates in the count. In electorates where one candidate achieves more than 50% of the primary vote, no formal distribution of preferences is carried out, and this indicative booth count is used as the final count after preferences. In electorates where no candidate achieves a majority on the primary vote, or where the nominated candidates for the indicative throw proved not to be the final two candidates after all votes were counted, a formal distribution of preferences takes place. As a result of this, there are occasional minor discrepancies between the formal and two-party preferred counts. Votes accepted as formal on the night and included in the indicative count may sometimes be excluded in later scrutiny. The discrepancies produced are only small in number and do not affect the result in any electorate. By-elections There were three by-elections conducted between 1996 and 1999. The Labor Party retained its safe seat of Northcote, while the Liberal Party lost Gippsland West to an Independent and Mitcham to the Labor Party. These changes in party status have been taken into account in the table of party swings on page 28. However, the actual results of the by-elections are ignored throughout this publication, and all tables calculate swing compared the 1996 state election. In the table of by-election results on page 39, a total is shown in the final count for 'exhausted' votes. While meeting the formality requirements of the electoral act, duplicate numbering meant that these votes 'exhausted' with no further preferences at some point in the distribution of preferences. These votes are often called 'Langer' votes, after the political activist who advocated this form of voting as a deliberate method to avoid giving preferences to the major parties. The electoral act was changed before the 1999 election so that these votes were declared informal and no longer counted. At the 1999 election, by-elections were conducted for three Legislative Council province seats elected in 1996. The results of these are shown on page 40. The results of the by-elections in the Legislative Assembly districts of Burwood and Benalla, held after the 1999 election, are shown on page 41. Results in the Frankston East supplementary election are included as part of the state election results and can be found on page 13. 1992 Redistribution The analysis beginning on page 42 compares the results of the 1999 election with the 1988 state election. This is based on the author's recalculation of the 1988 election to match the boundaries used at the 1992, 1996 and 1999 elections. All references to the 1988 state election are in fact to the 1988 results adjusted for the 1992 boundaries. Acknowledgments and Disclaimer All results are based on the official statistics published by the Victorian Electoral Commission. However, all calculations of swing, and the re-calculation of the 1988 election result are entirely the responsibility of the author. 2 Victorian Election 1999 LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY STATE-WIDE TOTALS ROLL 3 130 338 Candi- Seats Party dates Won Change Votes % Vote Swing Labor Party 88 42 +13 1 289 696 45.57 +2.44 Liberal Party 81 36 -13 1 194 998 42.22 -1.77 National Party 12 7 -2 135 930 4.80 -1.89 Independents 68 3 +2 133 701 4.72 +0.65 Australian Greens 22 .. .. 32 570 1.15 +1.15 Hope Party 10 .. .. 10 894 0.38 +0.38 One Nation