Legislative Assembly Results Summary of Results
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2006 VICTORIAN STATE ELECTION 25 November 2006 SUMMARY OF RESULTS Introduction ....................................................................................................1 Legislative Assembly Results Summary of Results ..............................................................................3 Detailed Results by District ...................................................................8 Summary of Two-Party Preferred Results ........................................... 23 Regional Summaries ........................................................................... 29 Legislative Council Results Summary of Results ............................................................................ 33 Upper and Lower House Comparisons ............................................... 37 Detailed Results by Region Eastern Metropolitan ........................................................................... 38 Eastern Victoria ................................................................................... 41 Northern Metropolitan ......................................................................... 45 Northern Victoria ................................................................................. 48 South Eastern Metropolitan ................................................................. 52 Southern Metropolitan ......................................................................... 55 Western Metropolitan .......................................................................... 59 Western Victoria .................................................................................. 63 Changes in Parliamentary Membership ..................................................... 67 Summary of Legislative Council Redistribution ....................................... 70 Antony Green ABC Election Unit July 2007 Symbols .. Nil or rounded to zero * Sitting Member # A sitting member changing chamber at the election .... 'Ghost' candidate, where party contesting in 2002 was absent in 2006 Party Abbreviations ALP Labor Party CA Country Alliance CDP Christian Democrats CEC Citizens Electoral Council DEM Australian Democrats DLP Democratic Labor Party FFP Family First GRN Australian Greens IND Independent LIB Liberal Party NAT National Party PP People Power OTH Others SA Socialist Alliance Important Dates Dissolution and Issue of Writs 31 October 2006 Close of Rolls 7 November 2006 Close of Nominations 10 November 2006 Election Day 25 November 2006 Return of Writs 15 December 2006 2006 Victorian Election INTRODUCTION This paper contains a summary of the results of the 2006 elections for the Victorian Legislative Assembly and Legislative Council. The election was the first conducted under fixed-term parliament legislation. The election was historic as the first for the reformed Legislative Council. The old 44 member Council was abolished, single member electorates and staggered terms abandoned, and a new 40 member Council elected by proportional representation. Format for Legislative Assembly Results First preference and two-candidate preferred counts are shown for all electorates as well as change in party support since the 2002 election. The following paragraphs explain the format for the results. First Count: The votes shown for each candidate are the total first preference votes received. Percentage votes are calculated as a percentage of the formal vote for each electorate. Swing is calculated by subtracting the percentage vote received by a party at the 2002 election from the percentage received in 2006. Where the parties contesting the district differ from 2002, ghost candidates indicated by "...." have been included representing candidates not contesting the 2006 election. As a result, all primary swings add to zero, subject to rounding errors. Final Count: Represents the two-candidate preferred count after the final distribution of preferences in an electorate. (See notes below on how preference counts are conducted in Victoria.) Two-candidate preferred percentages are calculated by dividing the two-candidate preferred vote by the total two- candidate preferred vote for the electorate. Two-candidate preferred swings compare percentages at the 2002 and 2006 elections. 2-Party Preferred: Shown in eight electorates, this represents a second count of preferences conducted between candidates representing the Labor and Liberal/National parties. These counts allow the preparation of the state-wide two-party preferred statistics shown on page 23. Notes on how Preferences are Counted The Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) uses two methods to produce after-preference totals. In polling places on election night, in check counting of polling place results, and in the processing of declaration votes, an indicative throw of preferences is undertaken between candidates nominated in advance as likely to be the two final candidates in each electorate. In electorates where a candidate achieved more than 50% of the first preference vote, the totals obtained from these indicative preference counts are used as the final two-candidate preferred count and a traditional distribution of preferences is not performed. In electorates where no candidate achieves a majority on first preferences, a traditional distribution of preferences is undertaken, with the successive exclusion of lowest polling candidates and the distribution of the excluded candidate's ballot papers as preferences to candidates remaining in the count. The exclusions stop at the point when a candidate reaches 50% of the vote. The VEC also undertakes a limited number of additional distributions for information purposes. At the 2006 election, the final two competing candidates in eight electorates (Brunswick, Gippsland East, Melbourne, Mildura, Northcote, Richmond, Rodney, Shepparton) did not represent a final contest between Labor and Liberal/National Party candidates and additional counts were undertaken to determine a two-party preferred result in these electorates. As a consequence of the VEC's counting methods, minor discrepancies can occur between the two- candidate preferred totals derived from the indicative preference counts, and the totals derived from the formal distribution of preferences. This publication has adopted the same procedure as the VEC in always using totals derived from a formal distribution or preferences where available rather than the indicative preference count totals. Antony Green – ABC Election Unit 1 2006 Victorian Election Amendments to Official VEC Results As noted above, the different counting procedures used by the VEC can create discrepancies in electorate totals. In preparing this publication, a number of these discrepancies have been corrected. In the electorate of Ferntree Gully, a complete re-count was conducted resulting in a change to the tally of first preference votes. As with the VEC, this publication uses the re-counted first preference tally. In the electorates of Bendigo East and Kilsyth, a check of first preference votes before the distribution of preferences resulted in minor changes to the tally of first preference votes derived from polling place returns. The VEC has used the original polling place totals in both electorates to derive its state-wide totals where this publication uses the first preference totals from the distribution of preferences. The method used in this publication was the one used by the VEC in 2002 and has also been used by the VEC in 2006 for the Legislative Council. The changes to state-wide first preference totals are minor. In this publication the totals compared to the VEC statistical return are Labor (+39), Liberal (+44), National (+2), Family First (+9), People Power (+5), Greens (+2), informal (-103), formal (+101) and total votes (-2). There were an extra 104 formal votes included in the Bendigo East count and three fewer in Kilsyth. In the electorates of Lara, Mulgrave and Narre Warren South there were errors in the indicative two- party preferred counts conducted for declaration votes. An estimated two-candidate preferred count has been created for the relevant counting centres, producing slightly different two-candidate/two- party preferred figures to those published by the VEC. There is also a slight difference in two-party preferred swing for Preston where there was a similar error in the 2002 returns. In the Legislative Council, all totals are derived from the totals used as input to the distribution of preferences. This means the re-count totals are used for the Northern Metropolitan, Western Metropolitan and Western Victoria regions. This is the same method adopted by the VEC. Format for Legislative Council Results Results for the Legislative Council are shown on page 33 and pages following. Overall totals are provided along with shares of vote for each region compared to 2002. Details of first preferences votes by candidate in each region are also provided along with commentary on the preference distributions. Owing to the method by which votes were data entered, it is not possible to provide ticket vote totals for each group in a region. Ticket votes are included in the total first preference vote of the lead candidate for each group in each region. Change in vote for each Legislative Council region is compared to the 2002 Legislative Council results taking into account the redistribution. A summary of the redistributed party vote shares can be found on page 70. A summary of the change in Legislative Council membership produced by the 2006 election can be found on page 67.