Digital Decay: Tracing Change Over Time Among English-Language
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DIGITAL DECAY? Tracing Change Over Time Among English-Language Islamic State Sympathizers on Twitter BY Audrey Alexander OctoBer 2017 All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. © 2017 by Program on Extremism Program on Extremism 2000 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Suite 2210 Washington, DC 20006 www.extremism.gwu.edu CONTENTS Author’s Notes and About the Author · v Executive Summary · vii Introduction · 1 Background · 5 Method and Design · 11 Analysis of English-Language IS-Sympathizers on Twitter · 15 Conclusion · 45 List of Figures 1. IS Infographic · 1 2. Kibana’s Dashboard · 12 3. Breakdown of Time Segments · 12 4. Tweet Count Per Week · 15 5. Tweet Frequency and Unique Screen Names By Week · 17 6. Duration of Account Activity · 17 7. Follower Count by Chronological Segment · 18 8. Tracing Username Mentions by English-Language IS Sympathizers · 20 9. Example Tweets · 23 10. Twitter Accounts · 24 11. Example Tweet · 24 12. Tracking Military Engagements Over Time · 25 13. Two-Week Snapshot of Mosul and Kirkuk (October 14 to 28, 2016) · 26 14. Top 3 Hashtags Per Week Highlighting Prevalence of Key Battles · 28 15. Tracing Attacks Over Time · 30 16. Example Tweets · 31 17. Example Tweet · 31 18. Example Tweet · 33 19. Top 10 Hashtags on July 15 and July 16, 2016 · 34 20. Example Tweet · 35 21. Tweet Referencing Anti-US State Leaders · 35 22. Example Tweet · 36 23. Example Tweet · 37 24. Top Hashtag Per Week · 38 Digital Decay? • iii AUTHOR’S NOTES First and foremost, the author would like to thank Daniel Kerchner, and the team at Scholarly Technology Group (STG) of the George Washington University Libraries, for their immeasurable contributions to this project since December 2015. This report was made possible by the Program’s team of Research Assistants, particularly Alex Theodosiou; Sarah Metz, Eleanor Anderson, Samantha Weirman, Mattisen Stonhouse, Adib Milani, Tanner Wrape, Mario Ayoub, Scott Backman, Jenna Hopkins, and Elizabeth Yates also contributed to this report. The author would also like to thank Dr. Ali Fisher for his constructive feedback, and Larisa Baste for formatting this report. ABOUT THE AUTHOR Audrey Alexander specializes in the role of digital communications technologies in terrorism and studies the radicaliza- tion of women. As a Research Fellow at the Program on Extremism at The George Washington University, she authored Cruel Intentions: Female Jihadists in America and published articles in Foreign Affairs, the Washington Post, and Lawfare blog. In this role, Alexander also maintains a database of nearly 3,000 pro-Islamic State social media accounts. Before joining the Program on Extremism, she worked at King’s College London’s International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation (ICSR) and with the Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD). Alexander holds a Masters in Terrorism, Security & Society from the War Studies Department at King’s College. The Program on Extremism The Program on Extremism at George Washington University provides analysis on issues related to violent and non-violent extremism. The Program spearheads innovative and thoughtful academic inquiry, producing empirical work that strengthens extremism research as a distinct field of study. The Program aims to develop pragmatic policy solutions that resonate with policymakers, civic leaders, and the general public. Digital Decay? • v EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Until 2016, Twitter was the online platform of choice for organization’s strategic messaging output about English-language Islamic State (IS) sympathizers. As a these fronts receive varying degrees of attention result of Twitter’s counter-extremism policies - includ- from sympathizers. ing content removal - there has been a decline in activity Terrorist attacks do little to sustain the conver- by IS supporters. This outcome may suggest the com- sation among supporters on Twitter, despite sub- pany’s efforts have been effective, but a deeper analysis stantive attention from IS leadership, central pro- reveals a complex, nonlinear portrait of decay. Such ob- paganda, and even Western mass media. servations show that the fight against IS in the digital sphere is far from over. In order to examine this change ‐ Over time, there has been a decline in tweets over time, this report collects and reviews 845,646 following major attacks. This suggests that at- tweets produced by 1,782 English-language pro-IS ac- tacks in the West have diminishing effects in counts from February 15, 2016 to May 1, 2017. mobilizing support. This study finds that: Current events – such as the attempted coup in Turkey and the 2016 U.S. presidential election – are Twitter’s policies hinder sympathizers on the plat- among the most popular topics within the sample. form, but counter-IS practitioners should not over- state the impact of these measures in the broader ‐ Events unrelated directly to IS cause some of fight against the organization online. the greatest spikes in activity. ‐ Most accounts lasted fewer than 50 days, and ‐ These discussions are ongoing despite the network of sympathizers failed to draw Twitter’s policies. the same number of followers over time. Conclusions and Policy Recommendations ‐ The decline in activity by English-language IS ‐ English-language IS sympathizers on Twitter sympathizers is caused by Twitter suspensions defy straightforward analysis and convenient and IS’ strategic shift from Twitter to messag- solutions. ing platforms that offer encryption services. ‐ They are skilled problem-solvers in the digital ‐ Silencing IS adherents on Twitter may pro- sphere. Rather than ruminating over losses, duce unwanted side effects that challenge law angered adherents fight to be heard, either on enforcement’s ability to detect and disrupt Twitter or other digital platforms. threats posed by violent extremists. ‐ Counter-IS practitioners must show a similar The rope connecting IS’ base of sympathizers to willingness to adapt and explore alternative the organization’s top-down, central infrastruc- ventures. ture is beginning to fray as followers stray from the ‐ While some collaboration is beneficial, the agenda set for them by strategic communicators. government cannot rely predominantly on While IS’ battlefield initiatives are a unify- the efforts of tech companies to counter IS ing theme among adherents on Twitter, the and its supporters. Digital Decay? • vii INTRODUCTION In May 2017, a pro-IS English-language infographic en- of 1,000 accounts per day, challenging the infographic’s titled “Failure of the Media War on the Islamic State” by evaluation of their opponents’ ‘failure’ in the fight against Yaqeen Media Foundation1 circulated among some of the IS on Twitter.2 In light of these discrepancies, perhaps movement’s sympathizers on social media (Figure 1). binary measures of success and failure, like winning and With a healthy level of skepticism, the graphic highlights losing, have limited utility in the discourse surrounding the complexity of the ‘media war’ between IS and its ad- the fight against IS online. versaries. On one hand, the image alludes to IS’ dynamic media strategy, made to amplify the organization’s voice Several conventional markers indicate that the foothold through coordinated “campaigns” that disseminate con- of the self-styled caliphate is faltering on the ground in tent on “famous websites such as Twitter and Facebook.” Syria and Iraq. IS has lost considerable territory, putting Simultaneously, however, the graphic touts in the bottom a tremendous strain on the organization’s internal rev- left-hand corner that “More than 1,000 new accounts are enue streams, while casualties and a decrease in foreign made by Islamic State supporters each day on Twitter.” fighter travel continue to deplete its pool of combatants.3 Figures from Twitter’s tenth #Transparency Report suggest The decline in central media output is a symptom, and the company’s effort to suspend accounts for violations perhaps also a cause, of depletion in the physical world.4 related to the promotion of terrorism far exceeds a rate Despite these setbacks, IS sympathizers continue to wage IS Infographic (Figure 1) May 2017 infographic allegedly produced by pro-IS Yaqeen Media Foundation Digital Decay? • 1 Introduction a protracted struggle in the digital sphere using a wealth As it pertains to this report, Twitter regulates content of digital communications technologies. Thus, the orga- by suspending accounts that violate the company’s pol- nization’s presence in the virtual theater is hard to gauge. icies regarding the promotion of terrorism.13 In the ‘Countering Violent Extremism’ section of the com- IS is strategically adept on social media because of slick pany’s tenth #Transparency Report, Twitter announced branding, masterful distribution, and effective agen- the suspension of a total of 636,248 accounts between 5 da-setting. On a strategic level, the group demonstrates August 1, 2015 and December 31, 2016.14 According to extraordinary dexterity in navigating the changing me- an official blog post published in early 2016, Twitter’s 6 dia landscape online. From Facebook and Twitter to terrorism-related suspensions were “primarily related Telegram and Tor, sympathizers fluidly cross between to ISIS.”15 The company claims to investigate “accounts