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Blue-Sky Eruptions, Do They Exist? Implications for Monitoring New

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Blue-Sky Eruptions, Do They Exist? Implications for Monitoring New Blue‐sky eruptions, do they exist? Implications for monitoring New Zealand’s volcanoes. A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Disaster and Hazard Management at the University of Canterbury by Angela Louise Doherty University of Canterbury 2009 Frontispiece “What are the odds, right?” “Before it happened it would have said slim, but since it did happen I would say 100%...” Dr Ray Langston replying to Catherine Willows (played by Lawrence Fishburne and Marg Helgenberger – CSI: Crime Scene Investigation). Lahar following the September 2007 eruption of Ruapehu (photo: GNS Science). Abstract The term “blue‐sky eruption” (BSE) can be used to describe eruptions which are unexpected or have no detected precursory activity. Case study analyses indicate that they have a diverse range of characteristics and magnitudes, providing both direct and indirect hazards and occur in both under‐developed and developed countries. BSEs can be a result of physical triggers (e.g. the lack of physically detectable precursors or a lack of understanding of the eruption model of the volcano), social triggers (such as an inadequate monitoring network), or a combination of the two. As the science of eruption forecasting is still relatively young, and the variations between individual volcanoes and individual eruptions are so great, there is no effective general model and none should be applied in the absence of a site‐specific model. Similarly, as methods vary between monitoring agencies, there are no monitoring benchmarks for effective BSE forecasting. However a combination of seismic and gas emission monitoring may be the most effective. The United States began a hazard and monitoring review of their volcanoes in 2005. While the general principles of their review would be beneficial in a monitoring review of New Zealand’s volcanoes, differences in styles of volcanism, geographic setting and activity levels mean changes would need to be review to fully appreciate the risk posed by New Zealand’s volcanoes. Similarly, the monitoring benchmarks provided in the U.S. review may not be fully applicable in New Zealand. While advances in technology may ultimately allow the effective forecasting of some BSEs, the immediate threat posed by unexpected eruptions means that effective management and mitigation measures may be the only tools currently at our disposal to reduce the risks from BSEs. Acknowledgements It takes a village to raise a baby, and apparently, to complete a Master’s thesis. Firstly I would like to acknowledge all the support and guidance I received from my super‐visory team, Tim Davies, Jim Cole and Gill Jolly. You were a dream team and I thank you for helping steer me in the right direction and not laughing too much at my penchant for 5 line sentences. I’d also like to sincerely thank the crew at GNS Science in Wairakei for their assistance and advice, especially Brad Scott and Craig Miller. Thank you my friends and ex‐colleagues at the Hawaii Volcano Observatory, especially Kelly, Jeff and Jim for the email research and to Florian Schwandner for your insights into the principles of volcano monitoring. I’d also like to thank William Pike for taking the time to give me a phone interview which gave a valuable insight into the 2007 eruption of Ruapehu and made the dangers of this style of eruption tangible. Thanks go to the Mason Trust for their financial support and to the entire UoC Geology Department for their expertise and assistance. To my fellow students, especially Elke, Hanna and Danni, thank you for your positivity, support and listening to my occasional rants. Thank you to those who read over things, gave advice, support and made me laugh (there are so many of you but especially Cooksey and the Facebook editorial squad). And finally, thank you my parents, Terry and Heather. Thank you for always believing in me and knowing it was worth a second shot. I could not have done this without you. ‐ v ‐ Table of Contents Frontispiece ........................................................................................................................... ii Abstract ................................................................................................................................ iii Acknowledgements .............................................................................................................. iv Table of Contents .................................................................................................................. v List of Figures.......................................................................................................................viii List of Tables ......................................................................................................................... ix Abbreviations......................................................................................................................... x Chapter 1. Introduction..................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Blue‐Sky Eruptions .................................................................................................. 2 1.2 Issues Surrounding Blue‐Sky Eruptions .................................................................. 2 1.3 The Importance of Blue‐Sky and Retrospectively‐Explained Eruptions ................. 3 1.4 Thesis Outline ......................................................................................................... 5 Chapter 2. Blue‐Sky Eruptions and Events ........................................................................ 7 2.1 Definition ................................................................................................................ 7 2.1.1 Blue‐Sky Eruption ............................................................................................ 7 2.1.2 Blue‐Sky Events................................................................................................ 8 2.2 The New Zealand Volcanic Alert Level system ....................................................... 9 2.3 Worldwide Alert Level Systems ............................................................................ 11 2.3.1 United States Geological Survey (USGS), U.S.A............................................. 11 2.3.2 Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO), Montserrat, West Indies ............ 13 2.4 Eruption Styles ...................................................................................................... 15 2.4.1 Magmatic Eruptions ...................................................................................... 15 2.4.2 Phreatic and Hydrothermal Eruptions........................................................... 19 2.5 Volcanic Hazards................................................................................................... 19 2.5.1 Lava Flows...................................................................................................... 20 2.5.2 Air‐fall Tephra................................................................................................ 23 2.5.3 Pyroclastic Flows, Surges and Block and Ash Flows ...................................... 25 2.5.4 Lahars and Mudflows .................................................................................... 27 2.5.5 Explosions and Directed (Lateral) Blasts ....................................................... 29 2.5.6 Volcanic Gases and Limnic Eruptions ............................................................ 30 Chapter 3. Blue‐Sky Eruptions and Blue‐Sky Events: Case Studies ................................ 33 3.1 Blue‐Sky Eruptions – Magmatic ............................................................................ 33 3.1.1 Okmok Volcano, Alaska U.S.A – 12 July 2008................................................ 33 3.1.2 Raoul Island, Kermadec Arc – 17 March 2006............................................... 35 3.1.3 Nyiragongo Volcano, Democratic Republic of Congo – 1997 & 2002........... 38 3.1.4 Galeras Volcano, Columbia – 14 January 1993 ............................................. 43 3.1.5 El Chichón Volcano, Mexico – March to April 1982 ...................................... 46 3.1.6 Historic Magmatic Blue‐Sky Eruptions: Tarawera, New Zealand – 1886...... 51 ‐ vi ‐ 3.2 Blue‐Sky Eruptions – Hydrothermal...................................................................... 54 3.2.1 Kuirau Park, Rotorua, New Zealand – 2001, 2006......................................... 54 3.2.2 Agua Shuca, Ahuachapán Geothermal Field, El Salvador – 13 October 1990............................................................................................ 56 3.3 Blue‐Sky Events..................................................................................................... 57 3.3.1 Mount St. Helens, Washington State, USA – 18 May 1980........................... 57 3.4 “Loss‐of‐Life” Events............................................................................................. 61 3.4.1 Nevado del Ruiz, Columbia – 13 November 1985......................................... 61 3.5 Conclusions ........................................................................................................... 66 Chapter 4. Monitoring Volcanoes and Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions......................... 70 4.1 Monitoring Volcanoes........................................................................................... 70 4.1.1 Effective Monitoring and Forecasting ..........................................................
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