China / Hong Kong Monthly Chart Book China Food & Beverage Monthly Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Page 1 DBS Group Research . Equity 11 Jan 2017 Diverging material trends Soft grain prices to keep feedstock costs low HSI: 22,745 Dairy prices could rise, but pork prices should retreat ANALYST Potential pressure from sugar and PET prices on beverage players Alice HUI, CFA +852 2971 1960 Grain prices remain favourable. Despite prior concerns on
[email protected] impact from La Nina in 2016, production volume for grains (corn, Alison Fok +852 2971 1938 soybean) remained robust. According to USDA, global corn
[email protected] production is expected to rise in FY17F. This, coupled with the cessation of the Chinese government’s corn reserve purchasing Mavis HUI+852 2863 8879; system since late 2016, would likely continue to put pressure on
[email protected] corn prices. Corn prices in China have fallen by another 4.4% Eric YEE, CFA +86 21 6888 3360 m-o-m in January 2017, after dropping some 24% in 2016. As
[email protected] corn makes up a large portion of meat and dairy upstream players’ raw material costs (est. 60-70% of total), lower corn F&B peer table prices should bode well for their margins. Meanwhile, prices of other grains such as soybean will also likely see limited upside as Price Target Upside Rec Mkt FY17 a result of a change in acreage planting in China (a shift from HK$ Price % Cap PE (x) lower-margin corn to other grains with better margins), as well HK$ (US$m) as stable global production volume growth, according to USDA.