Revitalising Rainfed Agriculture in India

Dr. J.P. Mishra Adviser Agriculture NITI Aayog, New Delhi Water Stressed Cropping/Livestock

•Shortage of water for % Contribution 7.5 to 10 months

•Wide spread N and P Rice 40 deficiencies along with Cotton 68 micronutrients Oilseeds 73 •Excessive runoff further deteriorates soil Pulses 80 nutrient status Coarse Cereals 83 •Mean annual Foodgrain Area 48 temperature >18 0C, rainfall exceeding Population 40 evapo-transpiration 2 Foodgrain Production 44 to 4.5 months in a year Net Sown Area 52 •Alfisols and Aridisols - abundant soil orders 0 20 40 60 80 100 Water stressed areas provide maximum Protein & Fat

•Major domain for Irrigated 27 Rainfed 73 protein and fat Oilseeds Irrigated 20

supplements in Pulses Rainfed 80

Indian diet 0 20 40 60 80 100 Leads in the • Irrigated 25 production of Goat Rainfed 75 Irrigated 36

pulses, oilseeds, coa Sheep Rainfed 64

rse cereals, and Irrigated 22 livestock Cattle Rainfed 78 0 20 40 60 80 100 •Predominant cotton producer-strong linkage with textile Irrigated 32

industry and Cotton Rainfed 68 employment 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Poverty among Farm Households

50.0 45.3 45.0

40.0 35.1

35.0 33.0 32.1

30.0 28.4 26.5

25.0 23.2 22.5 22.5 22.5

20.0 18.9 17.5 14.0 15.0 13.6 12.3 12.3 11.8 10.7

10.0 9.0 4.3

5.0 3.2 0.5 0.0 4 DEMAND - SUPPLY DYNAMICS

400 Annual increase in demand at 1.3% for Production 2011-12 cereals, 3% for pulses, 3.5% for edible 361.04 350 oils, 3.3% for vegetables and 5% in fruits. Demand 2016-17 312 Demand 2020-21 300 277 279 259.32 242.34 253 257 250 235

200 189 161 150.58 150 137.3 124 127.9

97 100 100 75.29 71 65.6 59

50 25 29.8 17.09 22 12.8 5.11 11.4 8.5 0 Cereals Pulses Foodgrains Oilseeds Sugarcane Fruits vegetables Milk Meat Egg Fish

Needs much higher Very promising for future With current pace can investment for sustaining growth-needs overall achieve the cereals. the turn around in systemic changes in Pulses is difficult task- horticulture-quality production to delivery Needs technological storage, cool services, health and breakthrough for plant chains, ripening disease control and types and also NRM infrastructures-marketing management

5/2/2017 5 NEED A PARADIGM SHIFT

• Move from Commodity centric to an area-focussed approach • Investment in rainfed agriculture at ~Rs. 50,000/ha • Knowledge-based Agriculture • Improved inputs, Diversification and R&D • Farmers Centric Agriculture • FPOs, Agri marketing & warehouse receipts • Credit, finance and insurance, capacity building • Industry-agriculture –farmer linkages • Market infrastructure, export opportunities, agribusiness • Government a facilitator • Mission mode approach to enhance land and labour productivity • Governance • Convergence matrix of programmatic interventions MOVE FROM COMMODITY CENTRIC TO AN AREA- FOCUSSED APPROACH Water and Irrigation: Issues

% irrigated % unirrgated India is water stressed. 52% of cropped area % of net irrgated area with more than one irrgation remains without irrigation and some regions are chronically water stressed yet: 120.0 140.0

•Currently, irrigation consumes 84% of the water (industry 12% 120.0 98.4 115.9 and households 4%) 100.0 •Water use in irrigation in India is 2 to 4 times that in USA and 96.2 89.0 China per unit of major crops 100.0 98.1 87.4 85.886.5 90.7 84.3 88.278.2 81.1 80.0 79.480.1 82.8 74.5 80.0 68.5 77.5 67.4 70.5 63.1 65.1 Share of canal in net irrigated area declined from 64.1 63.2 60.0 60.0 39.8 % to 23.6 %. 58.1 49.3 52.4 48.3 47.650.7 49.9 45.0 41.940.0 40.0 36.8 34.9 40.0 34.9 36.9 32.6 29.5 31.5 19.9 20.0 20.619.9 11.7 21.8 18.98.9 Groundwater sources increase from 28.7 % to a 20.0 15.7 14.213.512.62.2 whopping 62.4 % between 1950-51 and 2012-13. 0.0 0.0 -0.60.0 11.0 3.8

1.6 •In northwest, groundwater is over exploited 0.0 -20.0 TR JK SK JH PB BR NL AS DL UK UP HP HR AR ML MZ

•In the eastern states, substantial scope for harnessing WB OD groundwater remains MN ALL INDIA ALL

NITI Aayog, Government of India Future Irrigation Opportunities

% GW Dev Food crops Production (mt) GW for Future Irrigation (BCM) 180.0 25.0 170.3 21.5 160.0 20.0 17.2 16.8 16.3 15.9 140.0 13.9 13.8 134.6 15.0 11.9 126.8

8.7 120.0 7.9 10.0 6.2 5.3 4.7 100.0 3.6 5.0 3.0 2.4 1.0 0.8 80.2 0.2 74.9 80.0 72.2 0.0 67.6 53.0 mt 75.1 mt 58.5 60.0 168.2 mt 55.8 -2.7 -5.0 51.5 50.1 50.7 46.0 46.6 43.3 39.6 40.0 -10.0 30.9 31.1 29.8 27.8 26.1 24.7 21.7 19.5 22.1 21.9 17.9 15.6 17.7 20.0 12.7 12.7 -15.0 irrigation(BCM) future for Groundwater 9.5 -14.6 Groundwater development and production and production development Groundwater 8.3 8.4 8.0 5.3 4.3 2.9 0.5 1.6 1.8 1.5 0.0 -20.0 RJ GJ JK JH AS CG KL PB AP BR HP KR TN OR UK HR MP U P MH W B NEH

NITI Aayog, Government of India KNOWLEDGE-BASED AGRICULTURE IMPROVED INPUTS, DIVERSIFICATION AND R&D Water Management: Opportunities

• Shift to Efficient Water Application Tools (EWATs) for conserving the water and raising productivity • Water positive techniques- System of Rice Intensification and Direct Seeded to conserve water and raise productivity • Divert investments on irrigation technologies and infrastructure from subsidies to irrigation and electricity: offer farmer groups a choice between the two • Utilize MGNREGA for last mile connectivity and minor irrigation projects/irrigation tanks • Complete the nearly complete major irrigation projects under PMKSY • Utilize the irrigation potential already created- Prioritise CADA investments • Specialised solution for chronically water stressed areas Seeds, Fertilizer & Pesticides

Deviation from desired SRR(%) in pulses 20 Urd Mung Arhar Gram 10 12 Though the availability of quality seed has 2.61 0 1.41 • increased, SRR remains -6.09 OD JH BR All India UP -7.51 WB low in the country -10 -9.42 -10.84 -14.49 -13.65 -17.24 -16.41 19-22 per cent in pulses -20 -21.73 and below 30 per cent in -27.32 -26.02 -29.4828.25 paddy and wheat -30 -31.71 • Majority of farmers use -40 farm saved seed - many Issues • farmers do not 70.0 Deviation from desired SRR (%) in wheat and distinguish between 63.9 60.0 Rice grain and seed 50.0 40.9 Sale of spurious seed in 40.0 the market 30.0 26.6 20.0 • Private sector 19.8 10.4 13.8 7.9 7.0 10.0 5.8 6.0 7.41.8 0.8 participation is limited 0 0 5.00 4.5 0 0 3.2 0.7 0.0 -1.4-2.5 • No guidelines for pricing -10.0 -0.5 -9.5 -1.1-1.4 -6.1 -10.6-11.4-13.0 -4.6 -7.0 -15.9 of seed -20.0 -19.8-20.6 -25.6 • -30.0 Wheat Rice -40.0

NITI Aayog, Government of India Seeds, Fertilizer & Pesticides

Accelerate SRR to reach 33% in HYVs and 100% in hybrids.

Revitalize seed chain with focus on replacing varieties older than ten years by new ones. • Incentivise public sector and facilitate private sector to raise quality seed production to generate adequate supply. • Promote skill in seed production at village level

Facilitate private investment in R&D of seed and its promotion

NITI Aayog, Government of India NPK use is skewed towards. Realign norms for fertilizer use according to products such as urea, neem-coated urea, sulphur-coated urea and urea briquette.

Inform farmer through soil health card on optimal use of fertilizer by soil type, crop and water usage.

Encourage the farmers to better calibrate the balance as well as level across different fertilizers

NITI Aayog, Government of India Farm Mechanization

Farm Mechanization: Issues Small land holdings, high capital and low credit worthiness of farmers • Inadequate rural infrastructural services Availability of durable, light weight and low cost farm • implements • Farm Mechanization: Opportunities Scale up the custom-hiring centre and replicate the best practices of the States; • Reorient public extension agencies from varieties and inputs to farm mechanization, RCTs and post harvest • activities

NITI Aayog, Government of India New Technologies: GM The technology promises • Higher productivity • Lower use of fertilizers, weedicides and pesticides • Tolerance against drought, salinity and other abiotic stresses. • Fortification of grains and edible oils with vitamin A and modified fatty acids World’s leading scientific bodies like the US National Academy of Sciences, the UK’s Royal Society, the German Risk Assessment Agency, the European Academy of Science, the Canadian Royal Society, the New Zealand Royal Society, and India’s seven science academies have all declared that GM crops are safe 16 New Technologies: GM As a part of its strategy to bring a Second Green Revolution, GM crops needs to be promoted with appropriate safeguards • Recognizing the general sensitivity to permitting multinationals, proceed with domestically sourced GM seeds only. • According to the evidence presented by the leading Indian Research Organizations, a large number of India sourced candidates for field trials and eventual commercialization already exist. These may provide a good starting point. 17 NEW TECHNOLOGIES: PRECISION FARMING

Turmeric at Bhavani Block of Erode (2009-10) Options Include • Precision farming • System of Rice Intensification • Nano-technology • Hi-tech Horticulture and Animal Husbandry Introduce and encourage judiciously, taking into account the cost-benefit factors. The criterion in most cases should be commercial viability without subsidies 18 Shift to High Value Commodities

Issues • With rising incomes, demand side factors are highly favourable for diversification towards high value horticultural, dairy, fisheries, poultry and livestock. • But infrastructure, institutions and public policy are not very favourable towards the transition in most states. Recommendations • Strengthen through public support the livestock disease surveillance, control and health infrastructure • Expand cold storage facilities • Provide market finance to farmers • Facilitate the development of food processing industry, which will create demand at lucrative prices for high value commodities. Hi-Tech Polyhouse Use of Energy • Energy inputs to Agri. now1.84 kw per ha, this needs to raised 2.2 kw per ha by 2020. • Priority given to harnessing non-conventional and renewable resources of energy. Livestock and Fisheries • Induction of high yielding breeds, improvements in animal healthcare, feed, fodder, drinking water, shelter, institutions, promotion of irrigated fodder etc. • Small reservoirs, tanks, water harvesting ponds created under MGNREGA have potential for fisheries development. Agri.-Research & Extension • SAUs, KVK could be the centres of knowledge development, management and transmission to users.

•Essential to bring about better synergy between SAUs and ICAR. FARMERS CENTRIC AGRICULTURE Farmer Producer Organisations

•FPOs are emerging as useful mechanisms • aggregation of inputs/outputs and optimal deployment of resources • access to mainstream capital for improvements in production system assets • risk reduction through financial measures, cropping choices; and • creates opportunity to scale the quality demanding urban consumer and agro-processing industry. •RBI will have to include financing to FPOs in its priority sector Remunerative Prices

MSP: Issues • MSP procurement limited to a few crops and regions • Persistent demands for higher MSP and ever-rising procurement, which is infeasible in view of fiscal constraints • Subsidized sales of cereals under PDS in regions where there is no procurement divert part of the demand from local farmers, lowering the price the latter receive MSP: Opportunities • Extending MSP and procurement to more crops and regions is infeasible both fiscally and administratively • Limit MSP-based procurement to building buffer stock and stock for price stabilization • For all else, we can level the playing field across regions and crops by replacing MSP by deficiency payments amounting to 10 percent of the market price, which is fiscally feasible and WTO compliant • This may be initially tried on a pilot basis in cotton in select districts 24 Farmer Distress and Relief

Issue • A mechanism is required to bring quick relief to farmers impacted directly or indirectly by natural disasters. Opportunities • Conduct the relief transparently as an emergency social program. Create a database that identifies farmers and corresponding Aadhar seeded bank accounts. In case of a natural disaster, transparently identified by weather data and a set of weather related criteria, transfer a minimum specified sum of cash immediately into these accounts. • Appropriate avenues to create jobs for those farmers interested in exiting farming. Farm-oriented processing and small-scale industries offer two such avenues. • Implement PMFBY to deal with distress situations. Evolve a mechanism for the provision of a diversified set of crop insurance products by a diverse set of insurer firms. INDUSTRY-AGRICULTUR E FARMER LINKAGES Industry-Agriculture-Farmer Linkages

Industry enhance investment • imparting knowledge with the use of latest information technologies • knowledge institutions which are engaged in agriculture research • facilitate developing appropriate new technologies combining farmers wisdom and traditional knowledge • Developing Infrastructure Projects related to secondary agriculture –processing and value addition GOVERNMENT AS FACILITATOR Utilize the Underutilized

•Mission-mode programme for Rainfed Areas •Convergence of schemes/programmes. •Eastern states and other rain-fed regions suffer from low productivity and disproportionately greater incidence of droughts, floods and cyclones that can destroy standing crops. • With procurement concentrated in regions with well-developed irrigation and PDS bringing subsidized grain to eastern states, farmers also face depressed prices in the local markets. • abiotic stress -drought, flood, submergence and salinity • 11.7 m ha rice fallows that can be used through crop Intensification (short duration pulses and oilseeds in winters) • Tribal dominated areas of Odisha, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh -Organic by default -offer good scope for organic farming. • Considerable scope for groundwater development in the region though with the important qualification that high arsenic levels may disqualify certain areas ENHANCING PUBLIC & PRIVATE INVESTMENTS (CONVERGENCES OF RESOURCES) •Convergence within agriculture –NFSM, RKVY, PMKSY (micro-irrigation), NMOOP, NMAET •Convergence between MoRD, Agri, MoFPI, WR –MGNREGA, PMKSY, RKVY, CAD-WM •Overarching structure for Programme Administration • Matrix for convergence -activities, responsibilities, scale and outcome Rationalizing Allocation Critical For Capital Formation

80.0 •Crop centric investment RKVY: allocation to different sub-scetors in agriculture under RKVY 70.0 70.5 70.4

•Post harvest management 60.0 got the least – Critical for future growth and 50.0 49.4 46.0 45.2 Make in India initiative 42.8 43.2 40.0

34.4 34.9 •Many important sub- % Allocation sectors allocated less 30.0 25.3

20.8 21.4 capacity of project 20.0 19.8 – 18.1 18.7 16.9 17.5 16.2 16.0 preparation and absorption 15.3 15.0 12.0 12.3 11.4 11.2 10.0 9.0 8.7 9.4 8.17.9 Can it be linked with 6.86.5 6.8 6.5 – 5.7 6.3 5.8 4.9 4.6 3.94.2 3.5 3.0 2.1 2.4 contribution to State Agri- 0.0 GDP? 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 XI Plan 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

Livestock Crop PHM Micro-irrigation Horticulture Distribution of Resources

•More than 20% RKVY: projects sanctioned in varoious subsectors projects to 40.0 37.4 36.5 36.6 Livestock sector 35.0 32.6 30.0 30.2 28.4 29.0 •Very thin 27.4 27.8 27.3 26.1 26.4 26.926.4 26.426.2 25.0 25.5 25.6 25.6 distribution of 23.9 20.0 17.2 16.8 16.1 resources in many 15.0 Percent projects 14.3 14.8 12.9 12.4 12.5 11.3 projects 10.0 10.8

6.0 6.8 – Impact on scale and 5.0 5.8 5.4 5.9 4.4 4.24.5 4.6 4.2 4.2 4.6 4.24.4 5.0 outcome 3.5 3.7 3.0 3.8 3.7 0.0 – Effect on outreach

Livestock Crop PHM Micro-irrigation Horticulture Critical Analytical Pathways- A MISSING LINK

80.0 •Production Growth 75.7

68.4 70.0 67.0 (Based on the information- 65.6

Chhattisgarh, Goa, Jharkhand, 60.5 60.0 Karnataka, MP, Odisha and 55.8 53.2 53.1 Puducherry) 51.4 50.5 48.6 49.5 50.0 46.8 46.9 –Over 51% projects in < 44.2 39.5 Rs 1 crore category 40.0

Per cent 34.4 33.0 31.6 emanated without SAP 30.0 –More than 75% projects 24.3 in >20 crore emanated 20.0

from SAP 10.0 –Non-SAP/DAP projects 0.0 prevailed over SAP-DAP < 1 1-5 5-10 10-20 > 20 < 1 1-5 5-10 10-20 > 20 Crore crore crore crore Crore Crore crore crore crore Crore

projects in terms of Projects/ Allocation

allocation Projects with SAP Projects without SAP Critical Analytical Pathways- A MISSING LINK

80.00 •Infrastructure Infarstructure (Based on the information- 70.00 67.3

Chhattisgarh, Goa, Jharkhand, Karnat 60.00 58.05 aka, MP, Odisha and Puducherry) – Over 65% projects in < Rs 1 crore 50.00

category emanated without SAP 40.00 – More than 56% projects and 65% centPer allocation in >20 crore category 30.00

emanated from non-SAP route 20.00 – Non-SAP/DAP projects prevailed over SAP-DAP projects in terms of 10.00

allocation 0.00 <1 1 to 5 to 10 >20 Total <1 1 to 5 to 10 >20 Total – Need to reversed for optimum 5 10 to 5 10 to utilization of capital formation 20 20 Number/allocation

Projects with SAP Projects without SAP NEED A STRONG DATA BASE FOR RAINFED AGRICULTURE Generate separate data for rainfed farming- over 50% of our geographies unreported • rainfed farming and farmers • irrigation systems • seed scenario • infrastructure Separate estimates for • rainfed crops production and productivity • Livestock and their products