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Latvia and the United States: Revisiting a Strategic Partnership in a Transforming Environment Editors: Andris Spruds and Diana Potjomkina Latvian Institute of International Affairs Riga, 2016 Railway infrastructure services Editors: Andris Spruds, Diana Potjomkina Authors: Maris Andzans, Kristine Berzina, Edijs Boss, Jon Dunne, Ilze Garoza, Glen E. Howard, Donald N. Jensen, Alise Krapane, Matthew Melino, Magnus Nordenman, Diana Potjomkina, Jeffrey Rathke, Gunda Reire, Edward Rhodes, Ugis Romanovs, Liga Smildzina-Bertulsone, Andris Spruds, Kristaps Supe Scientific reviewers:Valters Scerbinskis, Toms Rostoks The opinions expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Latvian Institute of International Affairs, any of the sponsors, any governmental or other entity. English language editor*: Emily Kernot, SIA endtoend editing Layout and cover design: Liga Rozentale *English language editing has been performed for select chapters. The book is published in collaboration with the Publishers Zinātne ISBN 978-9984-583-77-8 UDK 327(474.3:73) Sp950 © Authors of the articles, 2016 © Liga Rozentale, layout and cover design, 2016 © Latvian Institute of International Affairs, 2016 his is a book about building bridges and strengthening the partnership between Latvia and the United States. The pub- Tlication Latvia and the United States: Revisiting the Strategic Partnership in a Transforming Environment continues the tradi- tion of a thorough and regular re-assessment of bilateral engage- ment between the two nations. The publication starts with an analysis of relations in a wider historical and regional context and further deals with security and defence matters and coop- eration; economic cooperation; as well as trajectories of people- to-people diplomacy and the important role of Latvian diaspora in the United States. A team of prominent Latvian and US experts contribute their assessment of the last several years in Latvian-US relations and present recommendations for the future. This book is published by the Latvian Institute of Interna- tional Affairs with generous support by SJSC Latvian Railway, the Embassy of the Republic of Latvia to the United States of America and SIA Pata AB, the European Crabbing Association, and the American Latvian Association. Table of Contents INTRODUCTORY REMARKS: REVISITING THE STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP by Andris Spruds 8 WELCOME REMARKS by Ambassador Andris Razans 12 WELCOME REMARKS by Ambassador Nancy Bikoff Pettit 16 I. LATVIA-US RELATIONS IN A HISTORICAL AND REGIONAL CONTEXT 19 A Strategic Appraisal of a Centenary of US- Latvian Relations: The Baltics in American Policy from Wilson to Obama by Edijs Boss 20 Obama, Europe and Russia: Catching Up to Europe’s Evolving Security Threats by Donald N. Jensen 44 II. LATVIA-US SECURITY AND DEFENCE COOPERATION 55 Confronting a Common Threat: Reinvestment in Bilateral Defense Relations by Jeffrey Rathke and Matthew Melino 56 A Fresh Start for US-Latvia Relations is Needed by Gunda Reire 64 US Policy toward Latvia in the Post-Crimea Era by Edward Rhodes 84 Latvia-US Relations and the Changing Security Environment in the Baltic by Glen E. Howard 100 6 Military Cooperation between Latvia and the United States: Achievements, Missing Links and Opportunities by Ugis Romanovs 114 Friction in the Baltic Sea Region and the Future of the US-Latvian Defense Relationship by Magnus Nordenman and Jon Dunne 130 III. LATVIA-US ECONOMIC COOPERATION 143 Latvia and US Economic Relations: Trade, Investment and Representation by Kristaps Supe 144 TTIP on the Horizon: a View on Prospects for Developing Economic Relations between Latvia and US by Liga Smildzina-Bertulsone 160 Latvia and the United States: Working Together to Strengthen European Energy Security by Kristine Berzina 170 Transportation Corridors: Prospects for Bringing Latvia and the US Closer by Maris Andzans 182 IV. PEOPLE-TO-PEOPLE RELATIONS BETWEEN LATVIA AND THE US 193 Latvia-US Public Diplomacy and People-to- People Relations by Alise Krapane 194 The Latvian American Community: The True Agency for Stronger Partnerships by Ilze Garoza 208 CONCLUSIONS: BUILDING BRIDGES ACROSS TRANSFORMING SHORES by Diana Potjomkina 226 ABOUT THE AUTHORS 238 7 Introductory Remarks: Revisiting the Strategic Partnership Andris Spruds his is a book about building bridges and strengthening part- nership between Latvia and the United States. The publica- Ttion Latvia and the United States: Revisiting the Strategic Part- nership in a Transforming Environment continues the tradition of a thorough and regular re-assessment of the bilateral engagement between the two nations. Although Latvia and the United States diverge considerably in their international weight, reach and role, relations have become increasingly dynamic, steadfast and mutu- ally committed in recent years. The US provides indispensable support to Latvia in a multitude of ways; Latvia, in turn, is one of the most consistent and like-minded of US allies in Europe, and an increasingly influential regional and international player. This cooperation reflects a solid basis of strategic partnership estab- lished, revisited and expanded during the last two decades. At the same time, re-assessment of the prospects of this developing strate- gic partnership has become even more important in the transform- ing global and regional environment. We are experiencing a dynamic and considerable shift in the tectonic plates of global politics and economics. The Trans- atlantic community of the like-minded nations is facing a num- ber of fundamental challenges. The European Union members, including Latvia, are attempting to find a common approach and deal with an unbalanced financial system, protracted migration crisis and intensifying terrorist threats in Europe. The United States is being tested in a partly similar manner. The current decisions and a quality of political leadership may influence con- siderably the future of the European and Transatlantic visions that would have a lasting impact on the whole Western commu- nity. There are concerns that neither European nations nor the United States are fully immune against the voices of populism, national assertiveness and isolationism. The lack of solidarity 8 would be a disturbing trend in the context of geopolitical chal- lenges in the proximity of Transatlantic alliance. We have seen a conspicuous re-emergence of geopolitical ambitions and great power assertiveness in the recent years. Rus- sia’s assertiveness and adventurism in Ukraine and beyond, annex- ation of Crimea and perceived competition of integration projects in the neighbourhood has been a strategic game changer. Now with a protracted conflict in Ukraine, the “win-win” approach in a wider Euro-Atlantic area from Vancouver to Vladivostok is increas- ingly difficult to achieve and insecurity perceptions are omnipres- ent. Perceptions of engagement and expectations of wider regional cooperative frameworks have apparently been replaced by grow- ing mistrust, mutual deterrence strategies and great power rivalry. Under these challenging circumstances, a political and economic sustainability of the European project and a strong Transatlantic linkage appears in a persistent need to be reassured, reinvigorated and strengthened. And the United States and Latvia have an impor- tant role to play in promoting solidarity, mutual reassurance and common vision in the community of the shared values. Latvia and the United States: Revisiting the Strategic Part- nership in a Transforming Environment aims to contribute with a thorough assessment and recommendations for further produc- tive engagement and mutual understanding between the two nations. The publication starts with an analysis of relations in a wider historical and regional context. The second part of the book focuses extensively on security and defence matters and cooperation. The economic cooperation has been rather modest but considerable potential and windows of opportunities exist in the fields of trade, energy and transportation. Economics is becoming increasingly more central as Latvia is about to join the US in two more exclusive international clubs, through acceding to the OECD and becoming a member of the largest economic agreement in the world, the impending Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership between the US and EU. The prospects of economic cooperation are dealt with in the third part of the publication. Last but not least, mutual perceptual frames, tra- jectories of people-to-people diplomacy and the important role of the Latvian diaspora in the United States are discussed in the concluding part of the book. 9 The partnerships are always instrumental in achieving a positive outcome and promoting shared values and interests. This publication is a manifestation of significance of partner- ships as it benefited considerably from the enthusiasm of our American and Latvian colleagues to share their insights and advice. In the process, the generous support by Latvijas Dzelzceļš, a leading regional transportation company, has been instru- mental to the successful accomplishment of this book. Latvijas Dzelzceļš demonstrates both an understanding and willingness to support analytical endeavours on a formative bilateral rela- tionship and regional dynamics in a politically and economically transforming setting. Other public and business entities such as the European Crabbing Association and the company PATA also has contributed to the publication. The support by the Ameri- can
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