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Economy & Business Snapshot

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Economy & Business Snapshot EconomyEconomy & Business & Business Snapshot –Snapshot Hampshire, S urrey,– September Oxfordshire, Enterprise2015 M3 and Coast to Capital (cont’d) Focus on sub-national growth in employees in employment in 2014 and between 2010 and 2014 – Part I (selected counties) Summary The Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) is the official source of workplace based employment estimates split by full-time/part-time, including detailed industrial and geographical breakdown. The survey collects employment information from businesses across the whole of the economy. The preliminary estimate from the Office for National Statistics shows that the number of employees in employment (‘employee jobs’) in Oxfordshire increased by around 16,000 or 4.9 per cent last year. Employee jobs growth in Oxfordshire was faster than the national or regional average and faster than in any other county in the South East. Jobs growth in Surrey was similar to the national average and faster than the South East average. Workplace-based employment (employees in employment) in Surrey increased by 3 per cent or around 16,000 last year compared to the previous year. In the Hampshire County Council Area there were about 7,500 additional jobs in 2014 compared to the previous year but employee jobs growth of around 1.3 per cent was slower than the regional or national average. At just 0.3 per cent, jobs growth in West Sussex lagged all other county in the South East. The latest preliminary workplace-based estimates are in stark contrast to the residence based employment estimates from the Annual Population Survey (APS) which pointed to sluggish growth in employment in Oxfordshire and Surrey and a robust employment growth in Hampshire in 2014. It is important to remember that the estimates of employees in employment come from a workplace-based survey (BRES). Total employment on the other hand comes from a residence-based survey (APS). Furthermore, the BRES estimates do not include self- employment and this data is often distorted to changes in the company’s reporting arrangements and the presence of company headquarters. On the other hand the residence-based estimates include all people in employment regardless of whether they have jobs in the area or commute outside the area. What these estimates show is that the focus on just the residence-based employment can be misleading since as shown by the latest preliminary workplace-based estimates, the economies of Oxfordshire and Surrey have been far more successful in creating jobs than is evident from the residence-based total employment estimates. The residence-based data shows that employment levels in Hampshire have reached record high levels (the employment rate was above 80 per cent in the year to March 2014) but relatively sluggish growth in employee jobs in Hampshire points to strong contribution of self-employment and out-commuting to the growth in the overall employment rate. Page 1 1 Economy & Business Snapshot – Hampshire, Surrey, Oxfordshire, Enterprise M3 and Coast to Capital (cont’d) Since annual data can be volatile it is desirable to look at employment growth over a longer horizon. However, in this case this does not change the overall conclusion. In terms of employee jobs growth Oxfordshire was still the best-performing county in the South East between 2010 and 2014 and Surrey did better than most other counties in the region. The good news this time around is that growth in employee jobs was driven by firms creating full-time jobs. In the previous year, part-time employment was the main driver of jobs growth. Faster jobs growth last year was held back by falling numbers of employees working-part time across the South East. Sectoral performance was mixed last year. Information & communication (one of the most important sectors in the area) shed jobs last year in all but two counties (Buckinghamshire and Berkshire) but this sector expanded in England. The negative effect of job losses in the highly productive ICT sector was offset by the strong growth in professional, scientific & technical jobs. Employee jobs growth in this sector was robust in the area (about twice as fast as the national average) but jobs growth in Hampshire, Oxfordshire, Surrey and West Sussex was slower than in Kent, East Sussex or Buckinghamshire. Finance & insurance expanded in Oxfordshire and West Sussex but contracted in Surrey and Hampshire. However, business administration expanded across the South East last year. Exceptionally strong growth in Oxfordshire (twice as fast as the national average) was one of the main factors behind the strong growth in total jobs in Oxfordshire in 2014. Double-digit jobs growth rates in the property sector were registered across the South East last year and construction created jobs in all but two counties. The latest data shows that the number of employee jobs in construction in Oxfordshire expanded by a third but this estimate needs to be treated with a high degree of caution. The number of employee jobs in the manufacturing decreased in the South East but increased in England. Manufacturing firms in Hampshire and West Sussex reduced the numbers of employees but manufacturing expanded in Oxfordshire and Surrey. Employee jobs growth in the manufacturing sector in Surrey was much faster than the national average last year but Surrey has lost more than a fifth of all manufacturing jobs since 2010 according to this source. On the other hand Oxfordshire had just 2.8 per cent fewer jobs in this sector last year compared to 2010. The number of employee retail jobs expanded in just one county (Oxfordshire) and transport & storage expended in all but one county (West Sussex). The number of employees in the transport & storage sector in Surrey expanded by over a quarter last year but this estimate needs to be treated with a high degree of caution. Hampshire and Oxfordshire registered growth in the numbers of employee jobs in public administration & defence but there was a sharp decrease in employees in employment in West Sussex. Oxfordshire was the only county in the South East with more employees in education last year than in the previous year and Oxfordshire and Surrey were the only counties to register growth in health last year. The local authority district level summaries by county are available in the main report Page 2 2 Economy & Business Snapshot – Hampshire, Surrey, Oxfordshire, Enterprise M3 and Coast to Capital (cont’d) Employment growth – South East Counties The Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) is the official source of workplace based employee and employment estimates split by full-time/part-time, including detailed industrial and geographical breakdown. The survey collects employment information from businesses across the whole of the economy and for every site. Figures 1a and Figure 1b show changes in total workplace-based employees in employment between 2013 and 2014 for all counties in the South East. Oxfordshire registered the fastest growth in the number of employees in employment in the South East last year. Job creation in Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire and Kent outpaced the national average last year. Total number of employees in employment in Oxfordshire increased by around 16,000 or 4.9 per cent, compared to a 2.2 per cent growth in the South East and 3.1 per cent growth in England (Figure 1a and Figure 1b). The number of employees in employment in Surrey increased by about 16,000 last year or 3 per cent, similar to the national average and faster than the South East average. Job creation in West Sussex was marginal last year, just 0.3 per cent compared to 2013. The number of employees in employment in the Hampshire County Council Area increased by about 7,500 last year or 1.3 per cent. Job creation in Hampshire was slower than the national or regional average and slower than in the previous year. Figure 1a: Employment growth, 2013-2014 Figure 1b: Employment growth, 2013-2014 Employees in employment (%) Employees in employment (number) Hampshire CC Hampshire CC Surrey Surrey Oxfordshire Oxfordshire Buckinghamshire CC Buckinghamshire CC West Sussex West Sussex East Sussex CC East Sussex CC Kent CC Berkshire Kent CC England % Berkshire 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 14,000 18,000 Source: ONS 2015 Source: ONS 2015 The latest preliminary estimates for Oxfordshire from BRES survey are in stark contrast to employment estimates from the Annual Population Survey (APS) that showed some 5,800 fewer people in employment in Oxfordshire in the year to December 2014 compared to the previous year. The same is true for Surrey with about 7,300 fewer people in employment according to APS1 It is important to remember that both the BRES and APS estimates do not come from administrative sources but from business and resident surveys and are as such subject to variation from year to year. The BRES estimates are also subject to changes in the company’s reporting arrangements. Data is collected from individual operations and 1 See County/LEP specific Labour Market Updates – July 2015 Page 3 3 Economy & Business Snapshot – Hampshire, Surrey, Oxfordshire, Enterprise M3 and Coast to Capital (cont’d) changes in the organisation could lead to changes in the data reported to ONS (the presence of company headquarters often distorts the data). Furthermore, BRES reports employee jobs whereas APS reports people in employment. Since people can hold multiple jobs and jobs can be shared these are not like for like comparisons. Furthermore, BRES relates to all persons of age 16 and over but in APS age is selectable variable, often reported for the main working age group (16-64).
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