Africa to reach 10 million SVOD subs by 2023
Digital TV Research forecasts 9.99 million SVOD subscribers across 35 Sub- Saharan Africa countries by 2023, up from 1.56 million at end-2017. Although massive growth will take place, the Sub-Saharan Africa OTT TV & Video Forecasts report estimates that SVOD revenues will only be $775 million by 2023 as some platforms are very cheap.
South Africa (3.37 million by 2023) will remain the leader, with Nigeria (2.61 million) in second place. South Africa and Nigeria will account for 60% of the region’s SVOD subscribers by 2023 - down from 74% in 2017. So, the rest of the region is growing faster than the two main countries.
SVOD subscriber forecasts by platform (000) 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2017 2023 Others 153 899 Showmax 334 1,728 iRoko 308 1,536 Kwese Play 0 333 Iflix 17 741 Amazon 68 725 Netflix 681 4,026
Source: Digital TV Research
The top six platforms accounted for 90% of the region’s SVOD subscribers by end- 2017, with this proportion to be retained throughout the forecast period. Despite being relatively expensive, Netflix will account for 40% of the 2023 total (4.03 million subscribers).
Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “Market dynamics have shifted over the last year. There have been many fewer platform launches, especially on a country level. Furthermore, several multinational players will rein in their ambitions whereas Netflix has consolidated its market leadership.”
Murray continued: “We believe that iRoko will concentrate mostly on West Africa. A significant stake in Iflix was sold to Econet, which we believe will mean more focus on Eastern and Southern Africa. Multichoice announced that Showmax will be given free to premium DStv subscribers across Africa, with Compact subscribers offered Showmax for half price.”
Sub-Saharan Africa OTT TV & Video Forecasts
Table of Contents
Published in June 2018, this 162-page PDF and excel report covers movie and TV episode developments. It comes in seven parts:
• Executive summary and regional forecasts, with handy comparison tables to reveal the best growth prospects; • Major SVOD platforms, including market share for each; • Regional forecasts summary from 2010 to 2023 by platform, by household penetration, by SVOD subscribers, by platform and by OTT revenues; • Top-line forecasts (population, population per household, households, TV households, fixed broadband homes, smartphone users, tablet users) for 35 countries; • Country profiles for 35 territories; • Detailed country forecasts for 35 nations. • NEW FOR 2018: Prospects. Subscriber forecasts for 35 countries in a visually-appealing 73-page document.
For more information, please click here or contact [email protected]
Forecasts for the following 35 countries:
Country SVOD ops SVOD Platforms Angola 3 Netflix; Amazon; Iroko Benin 3 Netflix; Amazon; Iroko Botswana 6 Netflix; Amazon; Showmax; Iroko; Iflix; Kwese Play Burkina Faso 3 Netflix; Amazon; Iroko Burundi 6 Netflix; Amazon; Iflix; Kwese Play; Iroko; Showmax Cameroon 4 Netflix; Amazon; Iroko; Showmax CAR 4 Netflix; Amazon; Showmax; Iroko Chad 4 Netflix; Amazon; Showmax; Iroko DR Congo 5 Netflix; Amazon; Iflix; Iroko; Showmax Rep Congo 4 Netflix; Amazon; Iroko; Showmax Cote d’Ivoire 3 Netflix; Amazon; Iroko Eq. Guinea 4 Netflix; Amazon; Showmax; Iroko Ethiopia 6 Netflix; Amazon; Iflix; Kwese Play; Iroko; Showmax Gabon 4 Netflix; Amazon; Showmax; Iroko Gambia 4 Netflix; Amazon; Showmax; Iroko Ghana 5 Netflix; Amazon; Iflix; Kwese Play; Iroko Guinea 4 Netflix; Amazon; Iroko; Showmax Kenya 6 Netflix; Amazon; Iflix; Kwese Play; Iroko; Showmax Liberia 4 Netflix; Amazon; Showmax; Iroko Madagascar 4 Netflix; Amazon; Iroko; Showmax Malawi 6 Netflix; Amazon; Iflix; Kwese Play; Iroko; Showmax Mali 3 Netflix; Amazon; Iroko Mozambique 4 Netflix; Amazon; Iroko Namibia 4 Netflix; Amazon; Showmax; Iroko Niger 3 Netflix; Amazon; Iroko Nigeria 5 Netflix; Amazon; Iflix; Kwese Play; Iroko Rwanda 6 Netflix; Amazon; Iflix; Kwese Play; Iroko; Showmax Senegal 4 Netflix; Amazon; Iroko; Showmax Sierra Leone 3 Netflix; Amazon; Iroko South Africa 7 Netflix; Amazon; Iflix; Kwese Play; Iroko; Showmax; Black by Cell C Tanzania 6 Netflix; Amazon; Iflix; Kwese Play; Iroko; Showmax Togo 3 Netflix; Amazon; Iroko Uganda 6 Netflix; Amazon; Iflix; Kwese Play; Iroko; Showmax Zambia 6 Netflix; Amazon; Iflix; Kwese Play; Iroko; Showmax Zimbabwe 6 Netflix; Amazon; Iflix; Kwese Play; Iroko; Showmax
SAMPLE: Ghana OTT TV & video insight
• OTT TV & video revenues are forecast to reach $23 million by 2023, up from $2 million in 2017. SVOD will contribute $20 million to the total in 2023. There will be 257,000 SVOD subscribers by 2023.
Main assumptions behind the forecasts • Mobile data subs count is high. Fixed broadband is low. • Netflix will remain the SVOD market leader • Netflix is expensive by local standards. • Showmax did not launch in Ghana as part of its May 2016 expansion. • However, Iflix start during 2017. • The IMF forecasts strong GDP growth over the next five years. Source: Digital TV Research
• Netflix launched in January 2016. We estimate 16,000 Netflix subs by end- 2017, rising to 108,000 by 2023. Growth will be restricted by low credit card ownership, relatively high prices, no local partnerships (yet!) and low broadband penetration.
• Amazon Prime Video started operations in Ghana in November 2016 as part of its global rollout. Subscriptions are cheaper than Netflix at $5.99/month, but Amazon offers less original content. We forecast 19,000 subscribers by 2023.
• Nigeria-based iRokoTV boosted its Ghanaian operations in November 2017 (including 25 kiosks in Accra); priced at only GHS25/year ($0.48/month). We forecast 64,000 subscribers by 2023, up from only 14,000 at end-2017.
• Showmax did not launch in Ghana as part of its May 2016 expansion.
• SVOD platform Iflix began operations in Ghana (GHS10.75/month) in September 2017, following on from Nigeria and Kenya. Iflix raised $133 million in August 2017 to help fund its international expansion. We forecast 39,000 subscribers by 2023.
• Iflix is linked with Kwese Play, which is expected to start operations in Ghana in 2018. Kwese TV offers 100 linear channels for GHS110/month ($25.11). Kwese Play has a distribution deal with MTN. Kwese also has distribution deals with Netflix.
• Zimbabwe-backed Kwese TV started pay TV operations via satellite and in a deal with mobile operator MTN in February 2017. This follows on from its FTA sports channel launch in March (which includes NBA, NFL and English Premier League matches). Econet Media has promised $1.19 billion for content to Kwese TV across Africa over the next five years ($592 million for sports and $600 million for general entertainment).
• Mobile operator MTN (15.67 million subscribers by end-2017) began its own VOD platform via MTN Play in February 2017. MTN extended this offer in April by agreeing to carry Kwese Play (fixed and mobile). MTN floated some of its equity on the local exchange in 2018.
• SVOD platform Zip TV, owned by Broadband Home Ghana, has a distribution deal with mobile operator MTN. Zip TV (GHS50-250/month) provides up to 40 linear channels and on-demand titles.
• Rival mobile operator Vodafone (9.07 million mobile subscribers and 45,000 fixed broadband ones by March 2018) already distributes iRoko to its subscribers. Vodafone launched its fiber optic network in February 2017.
• Mobile competitor Globacom (Glo Mobile) has 1.2 million subscribers.
• Mobile operators Tigo, owned by Millicom, and Airtel merged operations in March 2017. The merged operation has 10 million subscribers, of which 5.6 million are data users.
Mobile data subscribers by operator at September 2017 MTN 12,925,524 Vodafone 3,889,821 Tigo 3,029,361 Airtel 2,718,966 Glo 291,998 Others 10,151 Total 22,965,821 Source: NCA
• The National Communications Authority estimated 37.45 million mobile subs at September 2017, giving 130.9% penetration.
• The ITU estimated 86,596 fixed broadband subscribers by end-2016; up from 73,172 a year earlier.
Ghana OTT TV & video forecasts
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Population (000)
Total households (000)
TV households (000)
Fixed broadband households (000) Smartphone users (000)
Tablet users (000)
TV HH/Total HH
Fixed bband HH/Total HH
Smartphone users/Pop
Tablet users/Population
OTT TV & video fixed broadband households (000) OTT TV & video HH/Fixed broadband HH OTT TV & video HH/TV HH
OTT TV & video Smartphone users (000) OTT TV & video HH/Smartphone users
Gross OTT TV & video total (000)
SVOD total subs (000)
SVOD homes/TVHH
SVOD homes/Fixed broadband HH SVOD homes/Smartph users
TV rental transactions (000)
Movie rental trans (000)
Total rental trans (000)
TV download-to-own transactions (000) Movie download-to-own transactions (000) Total download-to-own transactions (000)
Ghana OTT TV & video forecasts
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Online display advertising total (US$ mil.)
Online advertising for OTT sites (US$ mil.) Online TV rental revenues (US$ mil.) Online movie rental revenues (US$ mil.) Online rental revs (US$ mil.)
Download-to-own TV revenues (US$ mil.) Download-to-own movie revenues (US$ mil.) Download-to-own video revenues (US$ mil.) SVOD revenues (US$ mil.)
Total OTT TV & video revenues (US$ mil.)
SVOD subscribers by operator (000)
Netflix
Amazon Kwese Play
Iflix
Iroko
Others
Share of SVOD subscribers by operator (%)
Netflix
Amazon
Iflix Kwese Play
Iroko
Others
SVOD revenues by operator (US$ mil.)
Netflix
Amazon
Iflix Kwese Play
Iroko
Others
Ghana OTT TV & video forecasts
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Share of SVOD revenues by operator (%)
Netflix
Amazon
Iflix Kwese Play
Iroko
Others
SVOD ARPU by operator ($)
Netflix
Amazon
Iflix Kwese Play
Iroko
Source: Digital TV Research
Ghana OTT TV & video prospects
Revenues by source ($m) 25
20
15
10
5
0 2017 2018 2019 2023 SVOD 1 4 8 20 DTO 0 0 0 1 Rental 0 0 0 0 AVOD 1 1 1 2
Device penetration (000)
2,923 Tablets 1,160 15,754 Smartphone 9,425 214 Fixed broadband 112 2,761 TV households 2,075 5,938 Households 5,321 32,482 Population 29,001
0 5,000 10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000 2023 2018
Ghana SVOD prospects
Subscribers by operator (000) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2017 2018 2019 2023 Others 2 5 10 27 iRoko 14 24 35 64 Kwese Play 0 4 6 13 Iflix 2 8 16 39 Amazon 2 4 8 19 Netflix 16 37 57 108
Revenues by operator ($m) 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2017 2018 2019 2023 Others 0 0 1 2 iRoko 0 0 0 0 Kwese Play 0 0 1 2 Iflix 0 0 0 1 Amazon 0 0 0 1 Netflix 1 3 5 13
Digital TV Research publication schedule for 2018 Title Publication Price 1 Sub-Saharan Africa Pay TV Forecasts January £1200/€1440/$1560 2 Middle East & North Africa Pay TV January £1200/€1440/$1560 Forecasts 3 Asia Pacific Pay TV Forecasts April £1200/€1440/$1560 4 Latin America Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1440/$1560 5 North America Pay TV Forecasts March £500/€600/$650 6 Eastern Europe Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1440/$1560 7 Western Europe Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1440/$1560 8 Global Pay TV Subscriber Forecasts April £1500/€1800/$1950 9 Global Pay TV Revenue Forecasts April £1500/€1800/$1950 10 Global Pay TV Operator Forecasts April £1500/€1800/$1950 11 Pay TV Subscriber Prospects May £800/€960/$1040 12 Pay TV Revenue Prospects May £800/€960/$1040 13 vMVPD and D2C TV Forecasts May £900/€1080/$1170 14 Netflix Forecasts May £700/€840/$910 15 Sub-Saharan Africa OTT TV & Video £1000/€1200/$1300 Forecasts June 16 Middle East & North Africa OTT TV & Video August £1000/€1200/$1300 Forecasts 17 Asia Pacific OTT TV & Video Forecasts September £1000/€1200/$1300 18 Latin America OTT TV & Video Forecasts September £1000/€1200/$1300 19 North America OTT TV & Video Forecasts September £500/€600/$650 20 Eastern Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts October £1000/€1200/$1300 21 Western Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts October £1000/€1200/$1300 22 Global OTT TV & Video Forecasts October £1800/€2160/$2340 23 Global SVOD Forecasts November £1500/€1800/$1950 24 OTT TV & Video Prospects November £1000/€1200/$1300 25 SVOD Prospects December £900/€1080/$1170
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