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Applied Atmospheric Resources Research Program in Thailand

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Applied Atmospheric Resources Research Program in Thailand APPLIED ATMOSPHERIC RESOURCES RESEARCH PROGRAM IN THAILAND INTERIM SCIENTIFIC REPORT SUBMITTED TO U.S. AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT UNDER ANE-0337-P-IZ-8021-00 August 1989 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Bureau of Reclamation Denver Off ice Research and Laboratory Serviees Division Water Augmentation Group 7-2090 (4-81) ~ureauot Reclamation EPQRT STANDARD TITLE PAGE APPLIED ATMOSPHERIC RESOURCES RESEARCH PROGRAM IN THAIUND A. S. ~enn.isand B. A. Silverman Bureau of Reclamation Denver Office Denver C0 80225 U.S. Agency for lnternational Development Washington, D.C. 15. SUPPL MENTARY NOTES Microficke and hard copy available at the Denver Office, Denver, Colorado. 16. ABSTRACT The Royal Thai Government requested assistance of the United States Agency for International Development for the development and implementation of a more comprehensive scientific approach to the design, operation, and evaluation of Thailand's weather modification program. Upon visiting Thailand, a team of American scientists recommended a 5-year developmental program to improve Thai technical capabilities through training, additional equipment, and a demonstration cloud seeding project. A core training course was conducted in Thailand in early 1988. A study of the scientific concepts underlying the Thailand program was performed using one-, two-, and three-dimensional cloud models, some adjusted to simulate cloud seeding to test various cloud treatment scenarios for the demonstration program. This program will test for an increase in rainfall from (4) warm clouds seeded with hygroscopic agents and (2) cold clouds seeded for dynamic effects with glaciogenic materials. Cloud model runs produced encouraging results for both cloud types, so a preliminary design has been developed for the demonstration project. The field prgram will be conducted in the Nam Mae Tun River Watershed of western Thailand. Field equipment and support will include cloud seeding aircraft, a 10-centimeter Doppler radar with dual polarization, an operations center for weather forecasting and monitoring, and a rain gauge network. A randomized crossover design is proposed with the experimental unit, the assemblage of clouds affecting a randomly selected target area over 3 hours. The primary response variable is rainfall measured by rain-gauge-adjusted radar. Analyses indicate that rainfall occurs on about 90 days per wet season and, if seeding yields 10 percent increases, about 90 experimental units are required per stratification to achieve a 90-percent probability-of-detectionat a significance level of 0.05. Given. .. equal numbers of warm and cold cloud units and typical operations problems and weather var-s of of are reqwred. 17. KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS a. DESCRIPTORS-- weather modification/ cloud seeding/ cloud seeding experiment/ precipitation augmentation/ precipitation enhancement/ artificial seeding/ warm cloud seeding/ cold cloud seeding/ hygroscopic seeding/ experimental design/ randomized experiment/ statistical evaluation/ precipitation measurement/ cloud modeling/ clouds/ cloud microphysics/ silver iodide/ cloud seeding aircraft/ 1 lDENTfFIERS--Thailand/ Nam Mae Tun/ Omkoi/ Chiang Mail Bangkok/ Bhumipol Dam/ I c. COSATI F ~eld/Group COWRR: SRIM: 18. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT 19. SECURITY CLASS 21. NO. OF PAGES (THIS REPORT) Available from the National Technical Information Service, operations 134 Division. 5285 Port Royal Road. Springfield, Virginia 22/61. 20. SECURITY CLASS 22. PRICE (THIS PAGE) APPLIED ATMOSPHERIC RESOURCES RESEARCH PROGRAM IN THAILAND INTERIM SCIENTIFIC REPORT SUBMllTED TO U.S. AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT UNDER PARTICIPATING AGENCY SERVICE AGREEMENT NO. ANE-0337-P-IZ-8021-00 J. G. Medina R. M. Rasmussen A. S. Dennis B. A. Silverman Water Augmentation Group Research and Laboratory Services Division Denver Office Denver, Colorado August 1989 - UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR * BUREAU OF RECLAMATION ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Atmospheric soundings were provided by the meteorological office at Chiang MaL Two- and three-dimensional model calculations were carried out by Terry Clark and Bill Hall at the Computation Facility of the NCAR in Boulder, Colorado. NCAR is supported by the National Science Foundation. Mission: As the Nation's principal conservation agency, the Department of the Interior has responsibility for most of our nationally owned public lands and natural and cultural resources. This includes fostering wise use of our land and water resources, protecting our fish and wildlife, preserving the environmental and cultural values of our national parks and historical places, and providing for the enjoyment of life through outdoor recreation. The Department assesses our energy and mineral resources and works to assure that their development is in the best interests of all our people. The Department also promotes the goals of the Take Pride in America campaign by encouraging stewardship and citizen responsibility for the pUblic lands and promoting citizen participation in their care. The Department also has a major responsibility for American Indian reservation communities and for people who live in Island Territories under U.S. Administration. The information contained in this report regarding commercial products or firms may not be used for advertising or promotional purposes and is not to be construed as an endorsement of any product or firm by the Bureau of Reclamation. 11 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Since the late 1960's, under the direction of His Majesty King Bhumipol Adulyadej, scientific and technical organizations in the Kingdom of Thailand have been involved with the design and implementation of a series of experiments and operational programs to increase rainfall through weather modification. A national program of weather modification was formalized in 1975 through the establishment of the RRRDI (Royal Rainmaking Research and Development Institute) under the MOAC (Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives). Recognizing the need for a more comprehensive scientific approach to the design, operation, and evaluation of Thailand's weather modification program, His Majesty requested assistance from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). This request resulted in an interdisciplinary team of four American scientists visiting Thailand during September 1986 to assess the requirements and the resources available for weather modification activities in the country. The team of scientists recommended a 5-year developmental weather modification program to improve the technical capabilities of the RRRDI through training, additional equipment, and a demonstration cloud seeding project. The ultimate goal of the demonstration was to increase manageable water resources by implementation of improved technology in Thailand's cloud seeding operations. USAID agreed to fund the 5-year program, and a PASA (Participating Agency Service Agreement) was signed between USAID and the Bureau of Reclamation to support the work. This interim progress report describes the initial stages of the work, which included (1) provision of a core training course in Thailand on cloud physics and weather modification, (2) study of the scientific concepts underlying the RRRDI program, and (3) design of a demonstration project capable of determining the effectiveness of cloud seeding in Thailand. In addition to providing a summary of progress on these three items, this report provides a number of recommendations designed to speed progress toward the overall objectives of the program. The core training course was conducted in February and March 1988. A total of 41 persons registered for the course, which was intended as a first step in technology transfer. Course objectives were to acquaint participants with the scientific principles, terminology, and technology of weather modification. A number of lecturers presented material, each in his respective specialty. The services of two professors of meteorology and atmospheric science at American universities were provided under contract. The other lecturers were Reclamation employees. In order to overcome language difficulties, the Royal Thai Government provided 12 facilitators who presented written and oral lecture summaries and were available to answer questions. Course evaluations completed by the attendees indicated that the presentation was a success. The study of the scientific concepts underlying the RRRDI program was carried out using cloud models. The models employed predicted the location and extent of cloud development. The orographic influence of Thailand mountains on cloud initiation and growth was well depicted. By accounting for important microphysical and dynamic cloud processes, the models predicted cloud evolution, including precipitation development. Models were adjusted to reflect cloud seeding; consequently, various cloud treatment scenarios were tested. III The two basic cloud seeding concepts to be tested in Thailand are (1) the increase of the rain by coalescence of liquid droplets; and (2) the treatment of cumulus clouds to produce dynamic effects, including increases in cloud size and lifetime and, consequently, rainfall production. The most common way to induce dynamic effects in clouds is to seed supercooled clouds with ice-forming agents, thereby releasing latent heat. Both seeding concepts were tested with various numerical cloud models using available Thailand upper air meteorological data and descriptions of principal terrain features as input. The cloud model runs indicated
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