Landshare Report SPRING 2018
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Metro Vancouver LandShare Report SPRING 2018 Accelerating success. MARKET SUMMARY INTRODUCTION Although the number of land sales transacted over 2018 so far has decreased since the same period last year, the average price per transaction has increased by 9%. This reflects the higher prices recorded across most markets (on a per buildable square foot basis). POLITICAL RESTRICTIONS CREATE DIFFICULTIES FOR BUYERS Metro Vancouver Land Sales Activity AND SELLERS $8,000 1400 $7,000 1200 For developers, the lack of transparency in negotiating Community $6,000 Amenity Contribution charges continues to lead to unpredictable 1000 $5,000 timelines, expenses and risks for developments. Lengthy permitting 800 $4,000 processes, restrictions around view cones, and objections from 600 $3,000 Number of Deals of Number residents of neighbourhoods that are viable candidates for 400 $2,000 densification also dissuade developers. 200 Transaction Value (in Millions) (in Value Transaction $1,000 $- 0 The provincial NDP government elected in May 2017 generated 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 some uncertainty around housing and development policies in High Density $131 $94 $235 $709 $594 $852 $1,009 $1,368 $3,065 $3,104 $972 Medium Density $279 $149 $497 $701 $687 $596 $1,027 $1,091 $2,466 $3,115 $781 British Columbia. The mayoral elections occurring later this year Low Density $131 $65 $223 $430 $449 $328 $441 $594 $1,047 $949 $311 have renewed this uncertainty, with housing policy one of the most Number of Deals 232 157 385 537 575 509 641 854 1,294 1,008 267 contentious and significant issues of the election. Low Density Medium Density High Density Number of Deals On the buyer side, a harsher mortgage stress test, an increase to 20% of the foreign buyers’ tax, along with the introduction of the empty homes tax slowed absorption, especially in the luxury market. VANCOUVER IS A GROWING, WORLD-CLASS CITY However, there is still sufficient appetite for new product, and approximately 70% of all multifamily homes released in May were Notwithstanding the constraints limiting new housing supply, pre-sold, which is an increase from approximately 40% in April. Vancouver is undergoing consistent growth. The Real Estate Board Reasonably strong absorption is expected throughout the remainder of Greater Vancouver projects the population of the Lower Mainland of the year due to pent-up, unsatisfied demand. will continue to grow by 30,000 new residents per year until 2040. B.C. experienced a 3.4% employment growth rate throughout 2017 and Vancouver’s emergent status as a tech hub has attracted Metro Vancouver Average Transaction Growth per Year companies such as Microsoft, Facebook, and Amazon. $9,000 9% $8,000 Critical to the strong positive growth outlook for British Columbia 40% $7,000 are the significant investments being made in major infrastructure $6,000 42% in the region. A notable example is B.C Transit’s commitment of $5,000 11% around $10 billion over the next decade for transit-related projects, 16% $4,000 38% such as the Millennium Line Broadway extension, Surrey Light Rail, $3,000 26% -7% Expo Line upgrade, and Evergreen Extension. Also announced this -12% $2,000 year, the federal government will invest $167 million in improving -15% $1,000 infrastructure in and around the Port of Vancouver. The port is Average Transaction Value (in Millions) $- Canada’s busiest, and recorded record throughput volume last year. $(1,000) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Average transaction Price 1 Source: Distributed under special license. © RealNet Canada Inc. All rights reserved. 1A MARKET SUMMARY VANCOUVER – DOWNTOWN S t a n l e y P a r k S D t r a n le S y t Downtown Vancouver continues to see high-value transactions regardlessa Beaverof general marketP sentiment in the Lower n a l Lake r e k y D P r a P r i k p C e l Mainland, as the end-product commands a premium. In 2018 to date there have beeni five residential land transactions a u n s e e Stanley w R a d Park y Avison within the downtown core. Gastown has no active projects; Westbank’s project at 33 Blood Alley W is currently in ay preconstruction. There is one active project within Chinatown; community sentiment regarding development is divided. 1A 99 ark Dr y P nle r ta n D S S goo ta La HIGHLIGHTS nl ey N P ar k Dr Lost Lagoon » Local developers are generally more cautious now than they were in the past. Devonian Coal Harbour Sites that would have received as many as 10 bids in the past now receive three Harbour Park or four, and larger developers with sizable land banks are reluctant to make new 2W. Georgia St Alberni St acquisitions given the uncertainty around the provincial government’s housing Lagoon Dr Haro St 1 Park Ln policies, the impending municipal election, and the difficulty in negotiating CACs Beach Ave Chilco St Harbour Pendrell St Green Park quickly and transparently. However, the downtown core remains popular with W. Commissioner St Gilford St Comox St Bidwell St Pender St foreign investors, as evidenced by the purchase of 1830 Alberni. Foreign Denman St Pendrell St W. Georgia St Canada Pl Alberni St Canada investors view Vancouver sites as strategic long-term investments, and they are Place Nicola St Melville St willing to bid competitively. Bidwell St English Bay Cardero St Broughton St 99 Waterfront Beach Ave Beach Jervis St Hastings St E. Commissioner Cordova St » The downtown condo market remains strong, and supply is still outmatched by Nelson St Barclay St Bute St Burrard Pender St 1A Bidwell St Haro St 3 Dunsmuir St demand. There are 11 active projects within downtown Vancouver, only two of Pendrell St Thurlow St Water St Cardero St Comox St W. Georgia St Powell St Columbia St Nicola St St Abbott which were launched in 2018. The sale of condos with prices exceeding $3 Burrard St Seymour St Granville St Carrall Robson St Davie St million is expected to continue slowing due to the foreign buyers’ and empty Broughton St Burnaby St homes tax; for example, Landmark on Robson’s East Tower sold 42 units since City Centre Homer St Howe St Pender St Harwood St St. H February 2018 at an average unit price of $3.168 million, leaving 82 units Bute St Paul’s Granville St Richards St Stadium/ Keefer St Smithe St Quebec St DunsmuirChinatown Viad released and unsold. Lower-priced, smaller condos are anticipated to be Sunset Hornby St Cambie St Beach Beach Ave Hamilton St Thurlow St Nelson St Pacic Blvd Burrard St absorbed quickly, but this type of product has not been prevalent within this Rogers Expo Blvd Davie St Helmcken St Beatty St Arena market. Unit sizes have trended downwards in Vancouver, with an average sold Blvd Georgia Viad BC Place Drake St Mainland St Stadium unit size of 1,211 square feet for concrete condominiums sold in Q1, which is a Hornby St Expo Vanier Hamilton St Park May & Lorne Brown Park Seymour St decrease from the 1,244 square foot average in Q4 2017 and the 1,309 square Burrard Bridge Pacic Blvd Richards St Yaletown/ foot average in Q3 2017. Roundhouse Science Homer St World Pacic Blvd Point Grey Rd Kitsalano Beach Cambie Bridge St Quebec George Wainborn David Lam KEY SALES Granville Granville Bridge Park Park Trafalgar St Trafalgar Island Balsam St Balsam Maple St Johnston Street False Creek Yew St Yew Olympic Village BASE FLOOR SPACE PRICE PER BUILDABLE ADDRESS PURCHASER PRICE SIZE (SF)99 1 Ave 1 Ave RATIO (FSR)* SQUARE FOOT (BSF) 1 Ave Stephens St Stephens Cartwright Street Larch St Larch Vine St 2 Ave 2 Ave Cypress St Cypress 2 Ave Old Bridge Street 1. 1640-1650 Alberni Street Private Investor3 Ave $130,000,000 3 Ave 17,293 2.20 $3,417 1 Ave 3 Ave 2. 1830 Alberni Street Private Investor $52,000,000 21,615 2.75 $875 3. 1057 Barclay Street Private Investor $19,000,000 8,668 2.75 $797 DEVELOPMENT & REZONING PERMITS NOTABLE NEW DEVELOPMENTS: AVERAGE LAND SALES RANGE » The Northeast False Creek Plan was approved in February. This plan will direct (Price per Buildable Square Foot) the transformation of the 58 hectares in the Northeast False Creek lands; APARTMENT ownership of these lands is split between the provincial government and its CONCRETE Crown corporation, private landowners, the COV, and various owners of existing Downtown Core $500-$850 buildings. 12,000 people will be housed in this community, which will require the removal of the existing viaducts and the creation of a new road network. The Downtown East/Chinatown $300-$400 plan is to be implemented over the next 20 years and will activate one of Vancouver’s last undeveloped waterfront areas. » Westbank’s ‘Butterfly’ project is a highly anticipated 57-storey tower at 969 Burrard Street. Out of 331 released units, only eight remain unsold. The average unit price is $3.3 million and the blended price per square foot is $3,005. First occupancy is projected for late 2022. The CACs for this project are valued at $91.3 million, one of the most significant CAC payments in the City’s history. * Based on estimated FSR Note: Key Sales are large transactions and therefore sometimes reflect a price per buildable square foot that is lower than the marketaverage LandShare Report | Spring 2018 | Metro Vancouver | Colliers International 1 Buntzen Lake Capilano Lake West r m D r d h R A g u o n Vancouver o n r a a r l i i o D p d b s a mar Rd n th n Ave e I u e C ra 99 Upper So v B te Edgemont Blvd S Queens Ave Le ve ls Delbrook BC RAIL Mathers Ave d Pitt Lake Highway R E 29th St ur Inglewood Ave o 21st St MARKET SUMMARY St 11th m y Fulton Ave 1 Hyannis Dr e S e Lynn Valley Rd North t v 15th St A E Riverside Dr M Taylor Wy Taylor l Ma l rin e e F Vancouver Rd Dr y Mountain Hwy Larson Rd a VANCOUVER – WEST B 15th St ll e ge Lonsdale Ave d Ave Chestereld d w Harrison Lake i W 13th St Ave St Georges R d r t e B e B Berkley Rd Berkley Welch St Mountain Hwy o e W W 3rd St E Sunnyside Rd Sunnyside E Grand Blvd E Grand t o Mt Seymou r a K l Pkwy Harbourside Dr e l E i G s ith Harbourside Pl p L s l Rd East Rd n an o a E 3rd St i Lonsdale Quay de Rd Cove Deep L Brooksbank Ave ollarton Rd D Dollarton Hwy The third and final phase of the Cambie Corridor Plan was approved by Vancouver City Council on May 1st.