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The Successes and Failures After the Orange Revolution in Ukraine

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The Successes and Failures After the Orange Revolution in Ukraine WILL THE COLOURS FADE? THE SUCCESSES AND FAILURES AFTER THE ORANGE REVOLUTION IN UKRAINE by Anna Vorobyova Bachelor ofArts (Honours), National University "Kyiv-:Mohyla Academy", 2005 THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLlYIENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF lYIASTER OF ARTS In the Department ofPolitical Science © Anna Vorobyova 2009 SIMON FRASER UNIVERSITY Spring 2009 All rights reserved. This work may not be reproduced in whole or in part, by photocopy or other means, without permission of the author. Library and Archives Bibliothèque et Canada Archives Canada Published Heritage Direction du Branch Patrimoine de l’édition 395 Wellington Street 395, rue Wellington Ottawa ON K1A 0N4 Ottawa ON K1A 0N4 Canada Canada Your file Votre référence ISBN: 978-0-494-59777-4 Our file Notre référence ISBN: 978-0-494-59777-4 NOTICE: AVIS: The author has granted a non- L’auteur a accordé une licence non exclusive exclusive license allowing Library and permettant à la Bibliothèque et Archives Archives Canada to reproduce, Canada de reproduire, publier, archiver, publish, archive, preserve, conserve, sauvegarder, conserver, transmettre au public communicate to the public by par télécommunication ou par l’Internet, prêter, telecommunication or on the Internet, distribuer et vendre des thèses partout dans le loan, distribute and sell theses monde, à des fins commerciales ou autres, sur worldwide, for commercial or non- support microforme, papier, électronique et/ou commercial purposes, in microform, autres formats. paper, electronic and/or any other formats. The author retains copyright L’auteur conserve la propriété du droit d’auteur ownership and moral rights in this et des droits moraux qui protège cette thèse. Ni thesis. Neither the thesis nor la thèse ni des extraits substantiels de celle-ci substantial extracts from it may be ne doivent être imprimés ou autrement printed or otherwise reproduced reproduits sans son autorisation. without the author’s permission. In compliance with the Canadian Conformément à la loi canadienne sur la Privacy Act some supporting forms protection de la vie privée, quelques may have been removed from this formulaires secondaires ont été enlevés de thesis. cette thèse. While these forms may be included Bien que ces formulaires aient inclus dans in the document page count, their la pagination, il n’y aura aucun contenu removal does not represent any loss manquant. of content from the thesis. APPROVAL Name: Anna Vorobyova Degree: M.A. Political Science Title of Thesis: Will the Colours Fade? The Successes and Failures after the Orange Revolution in Ukraine Examining Committee: Chair: Dr. Lynda Erickson, Professor Department of Political Science, Simon Fraser University Dr. Lenard Cohen, Professor Department of International Studies, Simon Fraser University Senior Supervisor Dr. Paul Warwick, Professor Department of Political Science, Simon Fraser University Supervisor Dr. Andre Gerolymatos, Professor, Chair Department of Hellenic Studies, Simon Fraser University External Supervisor nd Date Defended/Approved: April 2 , 2009 11 SIMON FRASER UNIVERSITY LIBRARY Declaration of Partial Copyright Licence The author, whose copyright is declared on the title page of this work, has granted to Simon Fraser University the right to lend this thesis, project or extended essay to users of the Simon Fraser University Library, and to make partial or single copies only for such users or in response to a request from the library of any other university, or other educational institution, on its own behalf or for one of its users. The author has further granted permission to Simon Fraser University to keep or make a digital copy for use in its circulating collection (currently available to the public at the Branches & Collections' "Institutional Repository" link of the SFU Library website www.lib.sfu.ca). and, without changing the content, to translate the thesis/project or extended essays, if technically possible, to any medium or format for the purpose of preservation of the digital work. The author has further agreed that permission for multiple copying of this work for scholarly purposes may be granted by either the author or the Dean of Graduate Studies. It is understood that copying or publication of this work for financial gain shall not be allowed without the author's written permission. Permission for public performance, or limited permission for private scholarly use, of any multimedia materials forming part of this work, may have been granted by the author. This information may be found on the separately catalogued multimedia material and in the signed Partial Copyright Licence. While licensing SFU to permit the above uses, the author retains copyright in the thesis, project or extended essays, including the right to change the work for subsequent purposes, including editing and pUblishing the work in whole or in part, and licensing other parties, as the author may desire. The original Partial Copyright Licence attesting to these terms, and signed by this author, may be found in the original bound copy of this work, retained in the Simon Fraser University Archive. Simon Fraser University Library Burnaby, BC, Canada Revised: Spring 2009 ABSTRACT This thesis explores the aftermath of the Orange Revolution in Ukraine. The author also examines and identifies the most insightful approaches in understanding revolutions today. Structural theories of revolutions and conventional transitology share a negative evaluation of the nature of the Orange Revolution concluding that it cannot be qualified as a revolution. Agency-centered theories of revolutions and the critical school of transitology evaluate the same event positively due to their emphasis on civil society. Analysis of the after-Orange tendencies demonstrates that the negative trends (political instability and power struggles) do not threaten the long-term democratic developments in Ukraine. The positive results of the Orange Revolution (civil society maturity, increased media freedom, and political participation) are fundamental in building democratic governance. The author concludes that agency-centered theories are more insightful in studying the new generation of non-violent revolutions, whereas structural theories of revolutions retain a conservative outlook on revolutions and neglect the positive changes that are the result of the Orange Revolution. Keywords: Orange Revolution; Ukraine; civil society; democratic transition; non-violent revolutions. 111 DEDICATION rro myfatlie1j andhis dream of an independent l1/(raine IV ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author would like to share her gratitude to these people, whose help made this thesis possible: Dr. Lenard Cohen, for his wisdom and patience, and for teaching me how to look objectively at my own country Dr. Nataliya Amelchenko, for introducing me to the issue of social solidarity within the Ukrainian nation My husband, Bryan MacMaster, for his dedicated reading of this text My friend, Anastasiya Salnykova, for her insightful comments and criticisms that have sharpened the arguments in this work My dear family, for their emotional support and encouragement all the way from Ukraine My Saviour, Jesus Christ, for the promise of new life v TABLE OF CONTENTS Approval ii Abstract iii Dedication iv Acknowledgements v Table of Contents vi CHAPTER I. Introduction 1 Focus and Arguments of Research 4 Conceptualizing Democracy 7 CHAPTER II: Theoretical Review of the Orange Revolution 9 II. 1. Theories of Revolution: Will They Include the Orange One? 10 Does the Orange Revolution Qualify as a Revolution? 11 What Kind of a Revolution? 18 The Structure vs. Agency Debate over the Orange Revolution 23 11.2. Transitological Literature: Paradigm Problems 26 11.3. Alternative Literature: Normative Institutionalism 32 CHAPTER III. The Mixed Painting of the Orange Revolution: Failures and Negative Tendencies 40 111.1. Red Under the Orange? The Persisting Communist Legacies 40 111.2. Divisions and Scandals within the "Orange" Coalition 49 111.3. Institutional Crises in the Wake of the Orange Revolution 54 CHAPTER N. The Mixed Painting of the Orange Revolution: Successes and Positive Tendencies 68 N.1. Civil Society Development: "To Be Continued" 68 The Framework 69 The Orange Revolution among the Electoral Revolutions 73 Empirical Evidence I: CSOs Infrastructural Growth 79 Empirical Evidence II: The Power ofPublic Protests 83 N .2. Deeper Societal Transformations 87 The Culture ofResistance in the Orange Revolution 89 The Youth as a New Post-Orange Generation 93 The New Place ofthe Political Opposition 99 CHAPTER V. hnplications: On Balance 103 V. I. The Failed Ideals of the Orange revolutionaries 103 V. II. The Long-Term Democracy Prospects in Ukraine 112 V. III. Theoretical Implications 119 CHAPTER VI. Conclusions 127 Bibliography 131 VI CHAPTER I. Introduction ElJen ~f a relJOlution IJJaJ lJictorioUJ, lJictory deJCJibed in detail iJ hardlY di,tingut:,hable from defeat. (Jean Paul Sartre) Few revolutions have lived up to their expectations. One Soviet-era proverb suggests: revolutions are born in the heads ofidealists, are carried out by the fanatics, but their results are reaped by the corrupt politicians. The coloured revolutions arguably have moved the process of democratic consolidation in post-communist Serbia, Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan further ahead. However, were such revolutions exceptions to the pattern of degeneration and disenchantment that has followed any revolution in history? Were they revolutions, and ifyes, than what
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