The Disrupted World of Multichannel Retail Maria Rua Aguete 19 June 2019 maria_aguete
#MCMS2019
Confidential. © 2019 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. About us: Information, insight, and analytics across critical technology markets IHS Markit analysts are among the most respected, experienced, influential, and quoted in the business
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Confidential. © 2019 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 1. State of the video market: The World has changed!
Confidential. © 2019 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. The world has already changed – Online video accounts for a 1/3 of global video subscriptions.
GlobalGlobal: Pay PayTV and TV Online and online video subscriptions video subscriptions, 2018 2017 160
140
120
100
80 139 60 109 40 74 68 56 20 44 40 23 0 Netflix China Tencent Baidu Comcast Amazon AT&T China Unicom Youku Tudou Liberty Global Hulu Telecom Video
Source: IHS Markit OTT video IPTV Cable Satellite
Confidential. © 2019 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. Pay TV remains dominant in terms of revenues
Global operator revenues 2018 USD m Global: Pay TV and online video subscriptions, 2017 50.000
45.000
40.000
35.000
30.000
25.000
20.000
15.000
10.000
5.000
0 AT&T Comcast Charter Dish Netflix Liberty Global Verizon FiOS Cox America Movil Cablevision TV
Source: IHS Markit OTT video Cable IPTV Satellite
Confidential. © 2019 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 2. State of the retail industry: The World has changed!
Confidential. © 2019 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 7
How can retailers benefit from the new technologies and adapt to the chaging shopping behaviour?
A. Everything is connected
B. 5G implications
C. Disruption from platform companies: Amazon, Alibaba, Google
D.The role of Voice Assistants
Confidential. © 2019 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. A. Everything is connected
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. Growth in connected devices coming from the living room
Connected devices installed by type by country (m)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0 2017 2018 2022 2017 2018 2022 2017 2018 2022 2017 2018 2022 2017 2018 2022 2017 2018 2022 Sweden UK Poland France Germany Spain
PCs Smart TVs Pay TV STBs DMAs BD players Game Consoles Tablets Smartphones
Source: IHS Markit
Confidential. © 2019 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 9 Living room devices are driving growth in connected devices in the UK
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. Home as a computer. The role of telcos
Global Pay TV and Online deo subscriptions 2018
Confidential. © 2019 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. Confidential. © 2019 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. AI/ Machine Learnig/ Big Data New Advertising models
Source: DIVE TV
Confidential. © 2019 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. Private and confidential @ Dive 2019 New contextual ad and video commerce revenue stream
Source: DIVE TV Confidential. © 2019 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. Private and confidential @ Dive 2019 Europe: Overall fixed broadband coverage 2018
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. B. 5G is here: What does it mean for consumers and operators?
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. Consumers spend more time on their mobile devices:
The demand for immediate content is greater than ever and 5G will facilitate capacity © 2019 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. But which content? Operators used video as the key content to drive data demand in the 4G era
Available mobile operator content and services by category
games
Video
music
Apps/Other Cloud Commerce & Payments Games Health Music News, Magazines & Books Payments & Commerce
Source: IHS Markit Productivity Security Social Video © 2018 IHS Markit Confidential. © 2019 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. Future mobile video drivers: 5G will be driven in part by consumer video and media Service provider 5G upgrade drivers : Uses cases (2018)
Extreme/ enhanced mobile broadband Real-time gaming
HD and UHD video
Massive IoT Tactile low latency touch and steer Fixed Wireless Access
AR or VR
Autonomous driving
Factory Automation
Disaster alerts
Medical emergency situations
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit
© 2019 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. Global 5G subscriptions forecast: almost 3bn by 2025 5G regional subs
3.000
2.500
2.000
1.500
Millionsof 5G subs 1.000
500
- 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Source: IHS Markit 2019
Confidential. © 2019 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 20 More 5G smartphones are coming to market globally
Global Smartphone Demand Forecast by Standard
100%
90%
Samsung Samsung Huawei 80% Galaxy Fold Galaxy S10 5G Mate X Q2’19 Q2’19 Q3’19 70%
60%
50%
40%
30% LG ZTE Xiaomi V50 ThinQ Axon 10 Pro Mi Mix 3 5G 20% Q2’19 Q2’19 Q2’19 10%
0% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2.5G 3G 4G 5G Oppo Motorola 5G Prototype Moto Z3 5G MOD TBD Q2’19 Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 21 C. Disruption from platform companies: Amazon, Alibaba, Google
Confidential. © 2019 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. Platform companies have asymmetrical business models:
Alibaba Alphabet Amazon Apple Baidu Facebook Tencent Communications & Retail Advertising Retail Devices Advertising Advertising Content
1999 1998 1994 1976 2000 2004 1998
Ads
AI
Cloud
Commerce & Pay
Communications
Content
Devices/OS
Health
Home
Location & Transport
VR & AR
Confidential. © 2019 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. Their strategy is to offer content, apps and services across a broad range of consumer sectors to reach, engage and monetise their users
Global: Platform reach (active customers / devices) in 2018
Platform reach (bn) 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0
Google - active Android devices Facebook - MAUs Apple - active devices WeChat (Tencent) - MAUs Baidu - search users Alibaba - active buyers Amazon - active shoppers Twitter - MAUs Snapchat - MAUs Line - MAUs Kakao - MAUs Global Pay TV
© 2019 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 24 Alibaba Alphabet Amazon Apple Baidu Facebook Tencent Communications & Retail Advertising Retail Devices Advertising Advertising Content 1999 1998 1994 1976 2000 2004 1998
Ads Various Various Amazon ads App store search ads Baidu ads Facebook ads Tencent social ads
Dingdang, AI Lab, AI / Digital Assistant Fashion AI Google Assistant Alexa Siri Raven H Messenger bots YouTu Lab Cloud Alibaba Cloud Drive, Photos Amazon Drive iCloud Baidu Cloud Workplace Tencent Cloud WeChat Pay, Tenpay, Commerce & Payment Tmall, Taobao, Alipay Android Pay Amazon.com Apple Pay, Apple Card Baidu Wallet Various QQ Wallet
Communications Ding Talk, Wangwang Hangouts, Allo, Duo Alexa messaging iMessage, FaceTime Baidu Hi WhatsApp, Messenger WeChat, QQ, Momo
Tencent Video, Sports, YouTube, Play, Play iTunes, App Store, TV, Facebook Live, Instagram, Prime Video, Twitch, Games, Pictures, QQ Content Youku Tudou, Xiami Games, Play Music, Music, iBooks, News+, iQiyi, PPStream Video, Gameroom, App Music, Penguin e-Sports, Channels Centre, Watch Books, Movies & TV Arcade, TV+ Now Live, Interest Tribe
Pixel, Nexus, Chrome, iPhone, iPad, Mac, TV, Tencent OTT set-top Devices/ Software Yun OS Fire TV, Kindle, Echo Raven H, Duer OS Oculus Android Watch, Beats, iOS box
Health Ali Health Google Fit - Apple Health - Various initiatives WeDoctor
Home TmallGenieX1 Google Home Echo, Ring HomeKit, HomePod Raven H - -
Location & Transport Various Maps, Waze, Waymo - Maps, CarPlay Baidu Maps Check-In Tencent Maps, iSpace
AR in commerce, VR & AR DayDream, ARCore Amazon AR View ARKit DuSee Oculus, 360 Video QAR games Confidential. © 2019 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. D. Is Voice Ordering the next ” Shopping” Trend ?
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. After the service driven boom of 2017 Baidu Raven Kakao AI speaker
Line Wave Line Clova
Tencent Tencent 2018 was all about new form factors DingDang Smartspeaker Bixby for Galaxy Samsung Bixby for existing assistants watch Telefonica Aura Galaxy Hub
Orange Djingo Movistar Home
Deutsche Telecom Cortana integration with Tinka Microsoft web services
Cortana for Cortana for Xbox Cortana in car Amazon Echo
Alexa expanded form Microsoft Cortana Cortana Harmon Kardon Alexa for Kind Fire factors (i.e. Microwave Invoke Smart speaker for windows 10 and clock)
Google Assistant for Amazon Echo Alexa for Windows Baidu DuerOS Pixel show & Plus 10 PC
Alexa hosting Microsoft Cortana Siri for Apple TV Google Home partnerships (Ford, Google home hub Lenovo,VW etc.)
Google Home Mini Google Now Amazon Echo Siri for Apple watch Siri for Mac Siri shortcuts & Max
Google Assistant Siri for iPhone Siri for iPad Siri Apple carplay Facebook M Siri Kit Apple HomePod for Android 6.0+ 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
© 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. Consumers crave interoperability. Only Alexa is meeting this need.
Native digital assistant reach 2018 – IHS Market Consumer Platforms research Use of digital assistants – IHS Markit consumer survey Nov’ 2018
Google Assistant Google Assistant
Siri Siri
Cortana Alexa
Bixby Cortana
Alexa Bixby
Other Other
0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 0% 20% 40% 60% Percentage of digital assistant users Accessible devices (billions) Source: IHS Markit
© 2019 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. Amazon’s Echo leads the Smart Speakers race
Smart speaker install base
90 80 70 60 50 40 30
20 Install base (millions) base Install 10 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Amazon Echo Harman Kardon Invoke Google Home Other Apple HomePod Source: IHS Markit
© 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. Digital assistant usage focused on staying informed
Native digital assistant reach 2018 – IHS Market Consumer Platforms research
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10% Percent of digital assistant usersofassistant digital Percent
0%
Confidential. © 2019 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. Thank you! [email protected] +44 7815500733
Confidential. © 20192018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 32 About us
Maria Rua Aguete Technology Fellow/ Executive Director – Media, Service Providers & Platforms
Maria Rua Aguete is an executive director of Media, Service Providers & Platforms at IHS Markit.
Maria leads the strategic development and manages the day-to-day operations of a team of analysts tracking the evolution of global service providers and operators. She created the team while at Screen Digest, now part of IHS Markit, following that acquisition in 2010. Their research on service providers leverages long-standing relationships with operators in all 70+ markets covered by IHS Markit, resulting in the most comprehensive source of television and operator market intelligence in the world.
.
Confidential. © 2019 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. Payments & Commerce
Device Telecom Messaging Car Payments Online shopping Retail Card Banks Fintech Makers Operators Services Hailing Gateways Platforms Networks Start-ups
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 4. Broadband/Mobile connections
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. Regional fixed broadband household penetration 2018
100,0 88,5 89,3 88,2 90,0 85,9
80,0
70,0
60,0
50,0 44,0 45,3 40,0 36,9 37,7 33,4 34,5 30,0
20,0 8,9 10,0 7,9
0,0 North America Western Europe Central and Eastern South and Central Asia Pacific Africa and Middle East Europe America
2017 2018 © 2019 IHS Markit
Source: IHS Markit
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. Regional mobile SIMs per 100 population 2017 /2018
160,0
140,4 139,1 140,0 129,6 130,8 123,2 125,1 120,0 106,2 108,9 102,6 95,9 100,0 91,7 92,8
80,0
60,0
40,0
20,0
0,0 Central and Eastern Western Europe North America South and Central Asia Pacific Africa and Middle East Europe America 2017 2018 © 2019 IHS Markit
Source: IHS Markit
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. Europe: Overall fixed broadband coverage 2018
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.