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MENA Construction & Infra Paving Way for Growth

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MENA Construction & Infra Paving Way for Growth Middle East Real Estate, Construction and Building Materials 17 November 2009 Coverage Change Company Company MENA Construction & Infra Top picks Arabtec Holding (ARTC.DU),AED3.24 Buy Drake & Scull (DSI.DU),AED1.04 Buy Paving way for growth Companies featured Arabtec Holding (ARTC.DU),AED3.24 Buy 2008A 2009E 2010E Nabil Ahmed Athmane Benzerroug DB EPS (AED) 0.80 0.57 0.54 P/E (x) 7.6 5.7 5.9 Research Analyst Research Analyst EV/EBITDA (x) 4.5 3.7 3.3 (+971) 4 4283-862 (+971) 4 4283938 Drake & Scull (DSI.DU),AED1.04 Buy [email protected] [email protected] 2008A 2009E 2010E DB EPS (AED) 0.08 0.15 0.11 We initiate coverage on three MENA contractors – Buy Arabtec and DSI P/E (x) – 7.0 9.6 EV/EBITDA (x) – 4.0 4.1 We believe the MENA region offers solid growth prospects to contractors that can Orascom Construction (OCIC.CA),EGP239.40 Hold tap the infrastructure markets. Valuations of MENA contractors are inexpensive 2008A 2009E 2010E relative to EM and global peers. Our top picks are Arabtec and Drake & Scull, both DB EPS (EGP) 20.97 9.28 13.20 of which combine deep value, declining risks and an attractive diversification story. P/E (x) 18.2 25.8 18.1 Orascom Construction is a high-quality play on infrastructure and fertilizers, in our EV/EBITDA (x) 16.6 14.3 10.9 view, but the prospects appear priced in. Global Markets Research MENA construction set for a rebound next year We believe the MENA construction industry has reached a turning point. After a 42% y-o-y fall in new awards (Dubai alone accounted for 60% of the decline), our analysis suggests that the MENA backlog has stabilized since June 2009. Several projects have been re-tendered lately, indicating that the prevailing “wait-and-see” attitude to benefit from the decline in construction costs (down 30-40% from peak) comes to an end. With project financing gradually back on track and the likely rebound in GDP growth next year, we expect 20% CAGR over 2009-12E for construction awards, and we view the industry as offering an USD280bn opportunity to civil contractors over the next three years. The long-term case for investment in MENA infrastructure remains solid Despite the collapse in regional real estate markets and in the Dubai construction industry in particular, we believe the long-term outlook for MENA infrastructure remains appealing. The region displays relatively unique characteristics, in our view: above-average population growth, historical underinvestment, strong state budget surpluses accumulated thanks to high oil prices, and governments’ will to diversify economies. We have identified Saudi Arabia and North African countries as the most attractive markets. Investors overestimating risks and neglecting mid-term potential Our coverage universe has a bias towards Dubai-based companies, which need to diversify their revenue bases to new MENA locations. This transition will take time to materialize into earnings growth. We nevertheless believe investors tend to overestimate the risks and neglect the mid-term growth potential. Our analysis suggests that stock prices of the MENA contractors and real estate developers remain highly correlated (factor of 0.95x), which we believe is increasingly unjustified, given the shift of contractors’ focus to other segments of the industry. We find good value in MENA contractors; top picks are Arabtec and DSI MENA contractors trade on 2010E P/E of 9.5x vs. for global and EM peers at respectively 15.2x and 14.6x and the risk/return combination appears attractive in our view. We initiate Arabtec and Drake & Scull as Buys, as we believe each stock combines deep value, overstated risks and an appealing transformation story over the next three years. Orascom Construction is a high-quality construction/fertilizer company, but trades at fair value, which underpins our Hold. MENA contractors are exposed to regional economic conditions, building and infrastructure spending, and availability of project financing. Project delays or cancellations and failure to recover receivables could materially affect our earnings and valuation. Deutsche Bank AG/London All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009 17 November 2009 Real Estate, Construction and Building Materials MENA Construction & Infra Table of Contents Executive Summary........................................................................... 3 Sector outlook...........................................................................................................................3 Valuation ...................................................................................................................................3 Risks .........................................................................................................................................3 Investment strategy .......................................................................... 4 MENA contractors have performed in line with global peers ...................................................4 MENA contractors appear attractive on a global basis .............................................................5 De-correlation factor to real estate has not played its role yet..................................................9 Top down: play diversification stories and de-risking..............................................................10 Valuation: Arabtec the cheapest, OCI the most expensive.....................................................11 Bottom up: Buy Arabtec and Drake and Scull and Hold Orascom Construction Industries ....12 Key themes....................................................................................... 14 Capturing the MENA infrastructures opportunity....................................................................14 MENA contractors’ margins should remain above global peers .............................................17 Working capital is expected to progressively improve............................................................18 Secular growth drivers.................................................................... 21 Above-average population growth creates a strong case for infrastructure investments.......21 Making up for the underinvestment in the yesteryears ..........................................................21 Planned diversification shows the intentions… ......................................................................22 …while higher oil prices have created the means ..................................................................22 Infrastructure spending is a way to support the economy in the current crisis ......................23 GCC has one of the highest electricity consumption rates .....................................................24 GCC has one of the lowest per capita availability of natural renewable water........................25 Residential construction: opportunities remain immense.......................................................26 Significant investments in transport infrastructure..................................................................27 MENA construction industry likely to pick up again.................... 29 Introduction to the MENA construction industry ....................................................................29 MENA project backlog stabilizing ...........................................................................................30 New orders declined 42% year-on-year, mainly due to Dubai................................................32 Cautious optimism returns to the project financing market ....................................................33 New order growth of 20% projected in the next three years .................................................34 Company Profiles............................................................................. 36 Arabtec Holding............................................................................... 37 Drake & Scull ................................................................................... 59 Orascom Construction .................................................................... 79 Appendixes .................................................................................... 102 Appendix A: country-specific opportunities ............................... 103 Appendix B: The case for fertilizers ............................................. 120 Appendix C: Fertilizer primer ....................................................... 132 Appendix D: Nitrogen market ...................................................... 139 Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/London 17 November 2009 Real Estate, Construction and Building Materials MENA Construction & Infra Executive Summary Sector outlook Despite the collapse in regional
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