The latest climate research
Clare Downing
Climate science: Karsten Haustein
DATE: OCTOBER 2019
www.creds.ac.uk Content & Research areas
• Weather and Impacts • Climate science • Adaptation solutions
www.creds.ac.uk Weather and Impacts
www.creds.ac.uk High Temperatures & Heat waves
• My porch recorded 38.2oc this year – very high temperatures • 2018 Britain and Ireland heat wave - June, July, August • Impacts: – widespread drought – hosepipe bans – crop failures – wildfires e.g. Saddleworth Moor – health – increased deaths in elderly and vulnerable (respiratory disorders) • Opportunities: increased tourism as people holidayed in UK, horticulture (fruit) not affected, Archaeological discoveries (drone photos)
www.creds.ac.uk Heavy rainfall and flooding
• November 2015 to January 2016 - wettest three-month period recorded dating back to 1910 • December 2015 - both wettest &, on average, warmest on record for the UK • Major storms – Desmond - estimated insurance bill of more than £1.3bn • Natural variability from year to year makes it hard to attribute the trend towards higher river flows in the last five decades to climate change, but recent studies do point towards manmade global warming playing a role in recent floods
www.creds.ac.uk Climate Science
• The development of observation-based climate datasets • the use of these datasets in climate change monitoring and attribution and • the use of Earth system models to make future long- term predictions
www.creds.ac.uk Factors being monitored and direction of trend
www.creds.ac.uk Observed long-term warming
www.creds.ac.uk How do we know its us?
www.creds.ac.uk How do we know that its ALL us?
www.creds.ac.uk Observed temperature difference – 1850s
www.creds.ac.uk Observed temperature difference between 1850 to 2018 (last 8 years)
www.creds.ac.uk Modelled version –temperature difference
www.creds.ac.uk Net Zero Conference - Key Messages September 2019
• For every 10 years we delay action we add another 0.25 degrees of warming (Prof. Myles Allen) • Currently at 1.1 degree of warming • Hence in 10-15 years we will have reached 1.50 • Well within our life times and major implications for our children • Extinction Rebellion are correct in that by declaring an emergency now there is potential to NOT reach the 1.5
https://www.carbonbrief.org/highlights-the-net-zero-climate-change-conference-oxford
www.creds.ac.uk Extreme Event Attribution
How have the odds for a certain extreme event occurring changed?
www.creds.ac.uk World Weather Attribution
• 2019 heatwave - all-time temperature records broken in Europe – likelihood of heatwave of same intensity 10 times more frequently today than a century ago • Storm Desmond analysis - extreme regional rainfall return period of about five years (20% chance in any given year), and roughly 60% more likely due to human-caused climate change.
• https://www.worldweatherattribution.org
www.creds.ac.uk Hurricane Harvey – Record rainfall linked to climate change
www.creds.ac.uk Additional deaths vs temperature
www.creds.ac.uk Adaptation Solutions
www.creds.ac.uk Adaptation and Resilience in the Context of Change network (ARCC) https://www.arcc-network.org.uk/
• BIOPICCC - methodology for selecting adaptation strategies for resilient health and social care systems • 4M - measurement, modelling, mapping and management of the city of Leicester, examining buildings, transport and carbon emissions • SCORCHIO - Designing urban spaces and buildings to improve sustainability and quality of life in a warmer world • CREW - developed a set of tools to improve the capacity of local communities to cope with the impacts of extreme weather events • Street mobility and network accessibility - is developing a suite of tools for overcoming barriers to walking
www.creds.ac.uk Climate Just
• Free map-based web tool for public service providers • Helps to identify who is vulnerable to climate change and fuel poverty and why https://www.climatejust.org.uk/welcome- climate-just-web-tool • Case Studies available e.g . Staffordshire https://www.climatejust.org.uk/case- studies/applying-climate-just-staffordshire
www.creds.ac.uk Planning needs to consider a wide range of drivers
Sustainable Development
Disaster Risk Reduction Adaptation Measures
Mitigation
www.creds.ac.uk Opportunity to join drivers together
• Need to tackle cause (mitigation) and effects (adaptation) of climate change at the same time with measures that are coordinated together • Look for co-benefits E.g. Green spaces = sinks for GHGs, reservoir for flooding, shading to reduce temperatures, lower air pollution, increased biodiversity, recreation (social and health wellbeing), safe cycling route
www.creds.ac.uk • Research focus: reducing energy demand, improving energy efficiency and understanding demand-side flexibility
Recent publication: Shifting the focus report- covers Buildings, Industry, Transport, and touches on Equality and justice and co- benefits
Quote: “Government must develop specific roles, powers and guidance for local authorities to enable them to make high quality, locally sensitive decisions to drive energy demand change”
www.creds.ac.uk Hierarchy of emissions reduction options by cost and feasibility 1. Savings by using less – demand for energy, resources, food, car/air miles: NOW 2. Energy efficient technologies – lighting, white goods, electric vehicles: NOW 3. Decarbonisation – bigger shifts e.g. replace boilers with heat pumps, minimise resource use through supply chain: 5-10 years 4. Negative emissions e.g. restoring ecosystems, carbon capture and storage: 10-20 years
www.creds.ac.uk Thank you
www.creds.ac.uk Our current warming trajectory IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C warming
www.creds.ac.uk Historic temperatures (Ice cores, fossils, proxys)
www.creds.ac.uk Decision making under Uncertainty
Adaptation Pathways • Series of actions that can be introduced to address changing circumstances and lessons learnt – alternative pathways linked to specific thresholds with flexibility to change pathways • Implementing what can be supported now and then monitoring, evaluation and learning to allow for further adaptation as and when appropriate
www.creds.ac.uk Mitigation and Adaptation
www.creds.ac.uk