股
票
研 [Table_Title] 洪学宇 Company Report: Anta Sports (02020 HK) Terry Hong
究 (86755) 2397 6722 EquityResearch 公司报告： 安踏体育 (02020 HK) [email protected] 13 December 2019
[Table_Summary] Ambitious in Future Growth of Amer Sports, Reiterate "Buy" 对Amer Sports未来的增长雄心勃勃，重申“买入”
2019 positive profit alert slightly beat expectations. Anta's 2019 net profit [Table_Rank] 公 Rating: Buy is expected to grow by not less than 45% YoY, mainly driven by 1) more than Maintained 司 35% increase in revenue, 2) higher revenue contribution from high-margin
retail operations and 3) stable operating expenses ratio. The Company 评级： 买入 (维持) 报 expects to record share of loss of the JV amounting to not more than RMB650 告 million, including which net profit is expected to increase by not less than 30% 6[Table_Price-18m TP 目标价] : HK$86.70 YoY. CompanyReport Revised from 原目标价: HK$74.70
The Company has set ambitious targets for Amer Sports. Anta expects Share price 股价: HK$71.900 Amer to achieve revenue growth at a CAGR of 10%-15% over the next five years, with profit growth ahead of sales growth driven by improvement in profitability. The Company aims to grow the three big brands, Arc’teryx, Stock performance Salomon and Wilson, to "billion euro brands" over the next five years. We 股价表现 expect the JV of Amer Sports to generate net gain to Anta in 2020 and 2021. [Table_QuotePic] 140.0 % of return Raise TP to HK$86.70 and reiterate "Buy". Revise 2019-2021 EPS 120.0 100.0
forecasts by -2.5%, 5.9% and 9.2% to RMB2.017, RMB2.786 and RMB3.534, 80.0
证 respectively, representing a CAGR of 32.2%, on higher GPM forecasts and 60.0
告 lower operating expenses forecasts. We stay positive on the future growth of
券 40.0
Amer Sports and expect to see synergy effect in both sales growth and cost 20.0
研 报
savings. Our new TP represents 38.7x, 28.0x and 22.1x 2019, 2020 and 0.0
(20.0)
究 究 2021 PER, respectively, as well as 20.6% upside potential.
Dec-18 Feb-19 May-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 报 HSI Index Anta
研 2019 年盈利预喜小幅超预期。安踏 2019 年净利润预计将录得不少于 45%的同比增长，主
告 要驱动力为：1）收入增长超过 35%，2）高利润率的零售业务收入占比提升以及 3）稳定 券 的经营费用率。公司预计将录得不超过 亿元人民币的合营公司亏损，计入该亏损后， 6.5 EquityResearch Report Change[Table_PriceChange] in Share Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y 净利润预计同比增长不少于 30%。
证 股价变动 1 个月 3 个月 1 年
公司为 Amer Sports 制定了雄心勃勃的发展目标。安踏预期 Amer Sports 在未来 5 年中 Abs. % (4.4) 13.9 94.6
[Tab 绝对变动 %
可以实现 10%-15%的年复合增长率，而由于利润率水平的改善，净利润的增速将超过收 Rel. % to HS Index (6.0) 15.2 92.8 le_I 入增速。公司目标为在未来 5 年将三个大品牌（始祖鸟、萨洛蒙和威尔逊）发展成“十亿 相对恒指变动 % 消 欧元品牌”。我们预期 Amer Sports 的合营公司将在 2020 年及 2021 年为安踏带来正收益。 Avg. Share price(HK$) 74.5 71.8 55.5 nfo1 平均股价（港元）
费 Apparel ] - Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. 行 上调目标价至 86.70 港元并重申“买入”。基于更高的毛利率预测及更低的经营费用预测， 我们分别调整 年每股盈利预测 、 和 至 元人民币、
业 2019-2021 -2.5% 5.9% 9.2% 2.017 2.786 Sector - 元人民币和 3.534 元人民币，相当于 32.2%的年复合增长率。我们维持对 Amer Sports 未 服 来增长的乐观态度，并预期将在销售增长及费用节省方面产生协同效应。我们的新目标价 装 分别相当于 38.7 倍、28.0 倍和 22.1 倍 2019 年、2020 年和 2021 年市盈率，以及 20.6%
的上涨空间。 Consumer
[Table_
Year End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE [Tab 年结Profit ] 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△ %) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) le_I 2017A 16,692 3,088 1.170 22.7 51.2 5.106 11.7 0.808 1.3 26.6
nfo2 2018A 24,100 4,103 1.528 30.6 41.3 5.876 10.7 0.685 1.1 27.8 中] 2019F 32,600 5,432 2.017 32.0 32.1 7.331 8.8 0.642 1.0 30.5 2020F 40,415 7,524 2.786 38.1 23.2 9.309 7.0 0.947 1.5 33.5 安外 2021F 48,818 9,543 3.534 26.8 18.3 11.705 5.5 1.272 2.0 33.6 踏运 体 [Table_BaseData]Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 2,701.9 Major shareholder 大股东 Ding’s Family 61.9% 输 Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 194,266.6 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 38.2 育
3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 5,256.0 FY19 Net gearing (%) FY19 净负债/股东资金 (%) 9.6 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 (HK$) 79.900 / 33.600 FY19 Est. NAV (HK$) FY19 每股估值（港元） 104.7
AntaHK) Sports (02020 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International.
See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 7
[Table_PageHeader]Anta Sports (02020 HK)
A positive profit alert for 2019 results was released. Anta Sports ("Anta" or the "Company") announced a positive profit alert
for its 2019 financial results. Net profit (without taking into account the share of loss of the] 1 JV)r isa expectedM t h g to i growR _ bye notl lb essa T [
than 45% YoY in 2019, mainly driven by 1) more than 35% increase in revenue, 2) higher revenue contribution from retail
operations, which enjoys higher GPM than wholesale operations and 3) relatively stable operating expenses ratio as a percentage of revenue. The Company expects to record share of loss of the JV amounting to not more than RMB650 million in 2019, comprising of 1) share of positive net profit generated by Amer Sports ("Amer") in 2019, 2) one-off expenses in relation to the acquisition of Amer Sports amounting to not more than RMB200 million and 3) impact from purchase price allocation (PPA)
exercise amounting to not more than RMB500 million. Including share of loss of the JV, the Company's net profit is expected to 13 December2019 increase by not less than 30% YoY.
Preliminary 2019 top-line growth and bottom-line growth slightly beat expectations. In our previous forecasts we expected revenue growth of 33.7% YoY and net profit growth of 36.1% YoY, which were slightly weaker than the new guidance. However, we didn't expect such a large amount of share of loss of the JV, especially the PPA. The PPA was generated when the JV Company took over the assets of Amer at a premium, which resulted in higher depreciation and amortization costs. The PPA will negatively impact the Company's P&L over the next few years. The negative impact is strongest in 2019 and will become weaker over the following years. The increased costs are all non-cash items, therefore they do not harm Anta's cash flow. The Company expects to see net gain generated from the JV in 2020 even taking into account of the PPA.
] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [
Channel performance remained stable and healthy in recent months. 3Q19 retail channel performance was in line with previous guidance. 3Q19 retail sales of Anta branded products grew YoY by mid-teens percentage, the same as last quarter. Retail sales of FILA branded products increased by 50%-55% YoY in 3Q19, lower than the last few quarters, mainly due to a high base in 3Q18. Retail sales of the other branded products increased by 30%-35% YoY, mainly driven by 50% YoY growth of Descente. The Company maintains their guidance that retail sales of FILA branded products will grow by more than 50% YoY and retail sales of Anta branded products will grow by mid-teens percentage for the full year of 2019. Channel inventory level of Anta and FILA remained at 4-5 months and 5-6 months in 3Q19, with retail discount rate at around 28% and 20%, respectively. According to management of Anta, channel inventory level and retail discount of both Anta and FILA brands remained healthy in October and November 2019. There will be less FILA store openings in 2H19 and 2020, while the profit margin of FILA will continue to improve. Besides, there is great growth potential for FILA Fusion in the future. Therefore the Company forecasts
FILA revenue to register no less than 30% YoY growth in 2020, driven by improvement in store efficiency and small amount of (02020 HK) store openings. The Company expects the Descente brand to achieve more than 50% YoY growth and contribute retail sales amounting to RMB800-1,000 million for the full year of 2019.
安踏体育 Figure-1: Retail Sales Growth (YoY) of Anta Branded Figure-2: Retail Sales Growth (YoY) of Non-Anta Products Branded Products 27.5% 20%- 90%- 90%-
85%- AntaSports 30% 100.0% 95% 95% 25.0% 20%- 20%- 90% 80%- 80%- 25% 25% 90.0% 85% 85% 22.5% 80.0% 65%- 20.0% 70% mid- 70.0% 55%- mid- mid- mid- mid- 50%- 50%- 17.5% teens teens teens teens teens 60% 60% low- low- 60.0% 55% 15.0% low- 40%- 40%- teens teens teens 50.0% 50% 50% 12.5% 40.0% 10.0% 30.0% 7.5% 5.0% 20.0% 2.5% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. * Note:3Q19 figure strands for retail sales growth of the FILA brand, instead
of all non-Anta brands.
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Seethe last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 7 [Table_PageHeader]Anta Sports (02020 HK)
Future development plans for Amer Sports. The brands under Amer Sports have already created very strong market
recognition worldwide, and ranked top three among global sports gear brands in many] market1 r a segments.M t h g However,i R _ e nonel b ofa T [
these brands has achieved sales over EUR1.0 billion, and they grew at a CAGR of single-digit percentage over the past 10
years, which is much slower than that of Anta. Anta and management team of Amer Sports will take several initiatives over the next few years to improve Amer's performance. The major initiatives include: 1) Reforming the Go-to-Market (GTM) structure from a multi-brand management model to an individual brand focused model. 2) Shift business model from wholesale to direct-to-consumer (DTC) retail. Currently, revenue from DTC channel contributed only around 10% to Amer's revenue, which
the Company aims to increase to 30% by 2023; 3) Accelerating business growth in China. Future business growth in China 13 December2019 will be mainly driven by the three big brands: Arc'teryx, Salomon and Wilson. The Company aims to increase the number of stores in China to 5x-8x that of today, and uplift the revenue contribution from China market from 5% at current stage to 15% over the next few years. 4) Focusing on softgoods including footwear and apparel products. Softgoods was the fastest growing segment over the past few years and contributed 40% of total sales of Amer in 2018, which the Company aims to increase to more than 50% in the future. 5) Change of brand positioning. A large part of Amer's products are professional performance outdoor equipment, especially winter sports equipment. Such equipment is not suitable for common retail consumers and therefore it's difficult to expand fast. The Company plans to add more lifestyle elements in the positioning of Amer's brands, and this also aligns with the strategy of focusing on softgoods, since softgoods have a much larger customer base. 6) Other initiatives, including upgrade of IT system, a new management incentive scheme, etc.
] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [
The Company has set ambitious targets for Amer Sports. Based on the initiatives mentioned above, the Company expects Amer to achieve revenue growth at a CAGR of 10%-15% over the next five years. The Company expects higher growth in net profit than sales growth, driven by improvement in profitability and better asset efficiency. The Company aims to improve Amer's net margin to double-digit percentage over the next five years. The Company aims to grow the three big brands, Arc’teryx, Salomon and Wilson, to "billion euro brands", and achieve more than 4x sales growth in China and around 50% sales growth in the U.S. over the next five years.
Anta partially disposed of interest in Amer. On 12 November 2019, the Company announced that Anta will sell a total of 5.25% interest in Amer to 1) certain members of Anta's senior management team, 2) Sequoia, 3) ZWC and 4) FountainVest. The gross proceeds will be approximately EUR140.0 million, and Anta intends to use the net proceeds, after deducting related
expenses, as general working capital. The purchasing price was generally at par with the price of the previous acquisition of (02020 HK) Amer. Upon completion of the transactions, Anta's voting interest in Amer remain basically intact at 57.70% (previously 57.95%) but its economic interest will be reduced to 52.70% (previously 57.95%). According to the management of Anta, the share
arrangement aims to include more valuable equity investors in the development of Amer. The new equity investors will not get 安踏体育 involved in the operation of Amer since they don't have voting rights, but they will provide useful resources in the industry to assist Amer's growth. In addition, the share arrangement also aligns more deeply the interest of Anta's senior management
team to Amer, which indicates their confidence in Amer's future growth. AntaSports
Figure-3: Shareholding Structure of The JV Company upon Completion of The Transactions
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Company Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International.
Seethe last page for disclaimer Page 3 of 7 [Table_PageHeader]Anta Sports (02020 HK)
Revise 2019-2021 EPS forecasts by -2.5%, 5.9% and 9.2% to RMB2.017, RMB2.786 and RMB3.534, respectively. The
Company guided that revenue grew by not less than 35% YoY in 2019 in the positive profit] 1 alert.r a WeM t forecasth g i theR _ Company'se l b a T [
revenue to maintain 20%-25% growth during 2020 and 2021, driven by the strong and stable growth of FILA. We slightly revise
up 2019-2021 revenue forecasts by 1.1%, 0.6% and 2.0%, respectively, based on our new assumptions. We revise up 2019-2021 GPM forecasts by 1.5 ppt, 0.9 ppt and 0.6 ppt to 55.8%, 56.2% and 56.4%, respectively, on higher revenue contribution from FILA and sales from retail channels, which enjoy relatively higher margin. Although A&P expenses are expected to remain high in 2020 due to the sponsorship of 2020 Tokyo Olympics, the Company will continue to take efforts to
reduce operating costs. Therefore we revise down our forecasts on total operating expenses during 2019-2020. We revise up 13 December2019 2019-2021 operating margin forecasts by 1.6 ppt, 1.3 ppt and 1.6 ppt to 26.3%, 26.0% and 26.9%, respectively. We forecast share of loss of JV amounting to RMB650 million in 2019, as guided by the Company, but we expect the JV to generate a positive gain amounting to RMB100 million in 2020, since the negative impact from the PPA will be weaker in 2020. We forecast the Company's EPS to grow at a CAGR of 32.2% during 2018-2021.
Table-1: Key Assumptions and Adjustments OLD NEW CHANGE RMB mn 2019F 2020F 2021F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2019F 2020F 2021F Revenue 32,232 40,157 47,852 32,600 40,415 48,818 1.1% 0.6% 2.0%
Gross profit 17,524 22,189 26,738 18,207 22,713 27,554 ] 2 3.9%r a M t h 2.4%g i R _ e 3.1%l b a T [
Operating profit 7,950 9,905 12,097 8,565 10,500 13,135 7.7% 6.0% 8.6% Net profit 5,574 7,105 8,741 5,432 7,524 9,543 (2.5%) 5.9% 9.2% Basic EPS (RMB) 2.070 2.631 3.236 2.017 2.786 3.534 (2.5%) 5.9% 9.2%
Gross margin 54.4% 55.3% 55.9% 55.8% 56.2% 56.4% 1.5 ppt 0.9 ppt 0.6 ppt % A&P of turnover 11.0% 11.5% 11.5% 11.6% 12.2% 11.5% 0.6 ppt 0.7 ppt 0.0 ppt % SG&A of turnover 32.1% 32.9% 32.8% 32.0% 32.5% 31.7% (0.1) ppt (0.4) ppt (1.1) ppt
Operating margin 24.7% 24.7% 25.3% 26.3% 26.0% 26.9% 1.6 ppt 1.3 ppt 1.6 ppt
Net margin 17.3% 17.7% 18.3% 16.7% 18.6% 19.5% (0.6) ppt 0.9 ppt 1.3 ppt Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International.
(02020 HK)
Raise TP to HK$86.70 and reiterate "Buy". Anta has successfully employed its "single-focus + multi-brand + omni-channel" strategy. The Anta core brand and the FILA brand will maintain strong growth momentum, and the other new brands will
gradually contribute more to growth of the Company's top line and bottom line over the next few years. We also expect to see 安踏体育 the synergy effect between the Company's existing brands and the new brands under Amer, in respect to sales growth and cost savings. Therefore we remain confident in the Company's future growth and we believe that Anta will remain as the industry
leader and outperform its peers over the next few years. We forecast the Company's EPS to grow at a CAGR of 32.2% during AntaSports 2018-2021, and therefore we believe that Anta deserves a higher valuation multiple at 28x 2020 PER. We raise our TP from HK$74.70 to HK$86.70, which represents 38.7x, 28.0x and 22.1x 2019, 2020 and 2021 PER, respectively. Our new TP also reflects 20.6% upside potential, and therefore we maintain our investment rating at "Buy".
Risks: 1) a slowdown in China's sportswear industry growth, 2) fierce competition in the e-commerce business sector, 3) higher operational risks from the expansion of self-operated retail stores, and 4) weaker-than-expected growth of Amer Sports.
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Seethe last page for disclaimer Page 4 of 7 [Table_PageHeader]Anta Sports (02020 HK)
Figure-4: Anta’s PE Ratio (Next 4 Quarters) Figure-5: Anta’s PB Ratio (Current Annual)
] 1 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [
9.6
32.0 8.6
27.0 +1SD: 26.0x 7.6 +1SD: 6.7x 6.6 22.0 5.6 Average: 5.4x Average: 21.8x 4.6 13 December2019 17.0 -1SD: 17.7x 3.6 -1SD: 4.2x 12.0 2.6 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
PER Average 1SD -1SD PB Average 1SD -1SD Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International.
Table-2: Peers Valuation Comparison Market EV/ Gross Operating
Company Stock Curren Last Cap PE(x) PB(x) ROE(%) D/Y(%) EBITDA(x) Margin(%) Margin(%)
Code cy price HKD mn 18A 19F 20F 21F 18A 19F 20F 21F 19F ] 192 F r a M 19t F h g i 19R F _ e l 19b F a T [
Sportswear - domestic
Anta 2020 HK HKD 71.90 194,266 41.3 32.1 23.2 18.3 10.7 8.8 7.0 5.5 30.5 1.0 21.9 55.8 26.3
Lining 2331 HK HKD 24.10 55,802 68.6 37.0 30.5 23.7 7.9 7.4 6.2 5.2 21.4 0.8 24.6 49.1 10.9
Xtep Intl 1368 HK HKD 4.09 10,276 11.4 12.3 10.0 8.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 12.2 4.9 6.2 44.0 14.4
361 Degrees Intl 1361 HK HKD 1.32 2,729 7.6 5.4 4.8 4.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 7.8 8.2 2.3 40.7 16.1
China Dongxiang** 3818 HK HKD 0.85 5,003 13.2 n.a. 7.4 8.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Simple Average 28.4 21.7 15.2 12.7 4.2 3.7 3.1 2.5 18.0 3.7 13.7 47.4 16.9
Weighted Average 45.0 32.1 23.8 18.7 9.5 8.0 6.4 5.1 27.6 1.2 21.6 53.8 22.5
Sportswear - International
Nike** NKE US USD 97.72 1,190,27 83.8 38.3 32.8 28.3 15.9 16.9 18.5 13.1 42.7 1.1 21.9 44.7 12.2
Adidas ADS GR EUR 281.60 491,9741 33.4 28.8 25.6 22.7 8.8 7.7 6.9 5.9 28.8 1.4 15.5 52.5 11.5
Under Armour UAA US USD 19.29 64,548 n.a. 56.4 40.3 29.7 4.3 3.9 3.6 3.3 7.3 0.0 19.4 46.6 4.4
(02020 HK) Lululemon** LULU US USD 224.47 228,208 118.1 61.8 46.8 39.4 19.0 20.3 16.1 13.0 31.8 0.0 22.0 55.2 21.5
Simple Average 78.4 46.3 36.4 30.0 12.0 12.2 11.3 8.8 27.7 0.6 19.7 49.7 12.4
Weighted Average 74.9 39.3 32.9 28.2 14.1 14.6 14.8 11.0 36.9 1.0 20.2 47.9 12.8 安踏体育 Apparel
China Lilang 1234 HK HKD 6.21 7,436 8.3 7.7 6.8 6.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 23.8 9.0 4.8 40.7 27.9
Bosideng 3998 HK HKD 3.04 32,918 44.3 27.9 21.3 17.2 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.6 10.1 4.9 10.9 53.1 13.2
Giordano Intl 709 HK HKD 2.40 3,788 7.9 13.3 11.7 10.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 11.2 7.9 n.a. 59.0 9.3 AntaSports
I.T** 999 HK HKD 1.78 2,129 4.9 4.8 6.1 4.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 12.3 4.7 3.8 63.9 8.3
Esprit* 330 HK HKD 1.58 2,982 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 (27.2) 0.0 n.a. 50.3 (15.8)
Simple Average 16.4 13.4 11.5 9.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 14.3 6.6 6.5 54.2 14.7
Weighted Average 33.7 22.4 17.5 14.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 12.5 5.8 9.5 52.1 15.0 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. All forecasts are based on Bloomberg consensus. * Note: Esprit (330) as outliers is excluded from the calculation of simple and weighted average. The financial year-end date of Esprit is 30 June. For easier comparison with peers, "18A" means "FY18A" and "19F" means "FY19F" and so on for Esprit. ** Note: The financial year-end date of China Dongxiang (3818), Nike (NKE), Lululemon (LULU) and IT (999) is not 31 December. For easier comparison with peers, "18A" means "FY19A" and "19F" means "FY20F" and so on for the aforementioned companies.
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Seethe last page for disclaimer Page 5 of 7 [Table_PageHeader]Anta Sports (02020 HK)
Financial Statements and Ratios
[Table_IncomeStatement] [Table_BalanceSheet] ] 1 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ Income Statement Balance Sheet
Year end 31 Dec (RMB m) 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F As at 31 Dec (RMB m) 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F
Total Revenue 16,692 24,100 32,600 40,415 48,818 Property, Plant and Equipment 1,203 1,787 2,182 2,683 3,317
Cost of Sales (8,451) (11,413) (14,393) (17,702) (21,264) Right-of-use Assets
Gross Profit 8,241 12,687 18,207 22,713 27,554 Construction in Progress 706 749 370 451 549
Lease Prepayments 431 421 0 (0) (0)
Other Revenue 458 760 782 930 1,074 Intangible Assets 705 685 682 699 724
Selling and Distribution Expenses (3,809) (6,525) (9,389) (11,640) (13,669) Investments in JV 0 0 11,643 12,225 12,836 13 December2019
Administrative Expenses (901) (1,223) (1,035) (1,503) (1,824) Others 588 1,447 4,173 4,358 4,674
Operating Profit 3,989 5,700 8,565 10,500 13,135 Total Non-current Assets 3,632 5,090 19,050 20,415 22,100
Share of loss of a JV 0 0 (650) 100 250 Cash & Cash Equivalents 6,968 9,284 5,920 8,143 8,910
Net Finance Income (costs) 322 68 13 (40) (3) Inventories 2,155 2,892 3,760 4,587 5,505
Profit Before Tax 4,311 5,767 7,929 10,560 13,381 Trade and Other Receivables 3,733 4,638 5,643 6,861 8,120
Income Tax (1,152) (1,533) (2,299) (2,788) (3,533) Pledged Deposits 150 1,662 1,662 1,662 1,662
Profit After Tax 3,159 4,234 5,629 7,772 9,849 Fixed Deposit 2,436 808 808 808 2,808
Non-controlling Interest (71) (131) (197) (249) (305) Total Current Assets 15,442 19,284 17,793 22,062 27,006
Shareholders' Profit / Loss 3,088 4,103 5,432 7,524 9,543
Basic EPS 1.170 1.528 2.017 2.786 3.534 Total Assets 19,074 24,374 36,843 42,477 49,105
] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ YoY 22.7% 30.6% 32% 38.1% 26.8%
Bank Loans 148 1,244 933 793 595 Trade and Other Payables 3,978 5,633 5,974 6,712 7,431
[Table_CashFlowStatement] Cash Flow Statement Current Taxation 353 650 652 808 976
Year end 31 Dec (RMB m) 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F Others 19 21 834 834 834
Profit Before Taxation 4,311 5,767 7,929 10,560 13,381 Total Current Liabilities 4,498 7,548 8,393 9,147 9,835
D&A 250 342 400 490 611
Other Adjustments (139) (151) (124) (74) (111) Borrowings 0 70 6,700 5,896 4,953
Changes in Working Capital (381) (444) (1,551) (1,308) (1,458) Deferred Tax Liabilities 215 236 284 341 409
Income Tax Paid (1,013) (1,288) (2,392) (2,706) (3,437) Others 0 0 727 764 802
Interest Received 154 214 200 134 159 Total Non-current Liabilities 215 306 7,711 7,000 6,163
Cash from Operating Activities 3,181 4,440 4,462 7,098 9,147
Total Liabilities 4,714 7,854 16,104 16,147 15,998
(02020 HK) Capital Expenditure (573) (808) (476) (1,117) (1,397)
Purchase of Equity Securities (103) (327) 0 0 0 Share Capital 259 259 259 259 259
Change in Fixed Deposits (944) 1,629 0 0 (2,000) Reserves 13,447 15,518 19,541 24,883 31,354 安踏体育 Others 41 (1,695) (13,741) (608) (758) Total Shareholders' Equity 13,706 15,777 19,800 25,142 31,613
Cash from Investing Activities (1,579) (1,201) (14,218) (1,725) (4,155) Minority Interest 654 743 940 1,188 1,494
Total Equity 14,361 16,520 20,739 26,330 33,107
Net Borrowings (827) 1,008 7,878 (908) (1,103)
AntaSports Dividends Paid (1,976) (2,468) (1,410) (2,182) (3,072) [Table_FinancialRatio] Others 2,801 324 (76) (60) (49) Financial Ratios
Cash from Financing Activities (2) (1,136) 6,392 (3,150) (4,224) 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F
Gross Margin (%) 49.4 52.6 55.8 56.2 56.4
Net Changes in Cash 1,601 2,102 (3,364) 2,223 767 Operating Margin (%) 23.9 23.7 26.3 26.0 26.9
Cash at Beg of Year 5,830 6,968 9,284 5,920 8,143 Net Margin (%) 18.5 17.0 16.7 18.6 19.5
Foreign Exchange Effect (463) 214 0 0 0 ROE (%) 26.6 27.8 30.5 33.5 33.6
Cash at End of Year 6,968 9,284 5,920 8,143 8,910 ROA (%) 18.5 18.9 17.7 19.0 20.8
ROCE (%) 49.1 51.0 35.0 31.8 34.9 Payout Ratio (%) 70.2 44.8 31.9 34.0 36.0
Inventory Days 74.5 80.7 84.4 86.1 86.6
A/C Receivable Days 41.0 34.8 33.0 34.5 35.2
A/C Payable Days 50.9 51.8 49.3 46.0 43.1
Net Gearing (%) Net cash Net cash 9.6 Net cash Net cash
Current Ratio (x) 3.4 2.6 2.1 2.4 2.7
Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International.
Report
Company
Seethe last page for disclaimer Page 6 of 7 [Table_PageHeader]Anta Sports (02020 HK)
Financial[Table_FinancialRatio] Ratio Company[Table_CompanyRatingDefinition] Rating Definition
] 1 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [
The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index
Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months
Rating Definition Buy 买入 Relative Performance>15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Accumulate 收集 Relative Performance is 5% to 15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable.
Neutral 中性 Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; 13 December2019 or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral. Reduce 减持 Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sell 卖出 Relative Performance <-15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.
Sector[Table_ RatingIndustry DefinitionRatingDefinition] The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Outperform 跑赢大市 Relative Performance>5%;
] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable. Neutral 中性 Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral. Underperform 跑输大市 Relative Performance<-5%; Or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable.
[DISCLOSURETable_DISCLOSUREOFINTERESTS OF INTERESTS ] (1) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report.
(3) Except for KAISA GROUP (01638 HK),GUOTAI JUNAN I (01788 HK),JXR (01951 HK),BANK OF GANSU (02139 HK),JINSHANG BANK (02558 HK),ZHONGLIANG HLDG (02772 HK),BINHAI INVESTMENT (02886 HK),HAITIAN ANTENNA (08227 HK),Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report.
(4) Guotai Junan and its group companies have not had investment banking relationships with the issuer mentioned in this Research Report (02020 HK)
within the preceding 12 months. (5) Guotai Junan and its group companies are not making a market in the securities in respect of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report.
(6) Guotai Junan and its group companies have not employed an individual serving as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research 安踏体育 Report. There is no officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report associated with Guotai Junan and its group companies.
AntaSports DISCLAIMER
This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports, including investment banking, investment services, etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily).
Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales persons, dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan.
Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision.
This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in
any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.
Report © 2019 Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited. All Rights Reserved. 27/F., Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza, 181 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong. Tel.: (852) 2509-9118 Fax: (852) 2509-7793
Website: www.gtja.com.hk Company
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