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COMPUTATIONAL METHODS for TACTICAL SIMULATIONS COMPUTATIONAL METHODS for TACTICAL SIMULATIONS Julkaisusarja 1 Nro 1/2012

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COMPUTATIONAL METHODS for TACTICAL SIMULATIONS COMPUTATIONAL METHODS for TACTICAL SIMULATIONS Julkaisusarja 1 Nro 1/2012 Esa Lappi COMPUTATIONAL METHODS FOR TACTICAL SIMULATIONS COMPUTATIONAL METHODS FOR TACTICAL SIMULATIONS SIMULATIONS METHODS FOR TACTICAL COMPUTATIONAL Julkaisusarja 1 Nro 1/2012 Esa Lappi Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu Puh. +358 (0) 299 800 ISBN: 978-951-25-2317-7 Taktiikan laitos www.mpkk.fi PL 7, 00860 Helsinki Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu Suomi Finland Taktiikan Laitos Julkaisusarja 1 Nro 1/2012 COMPUTATIONAL METHODS FOR TACTICAL SIMULATIONS Esa Lappi Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu Taktiikan laitos Julkaisusarja 1 N:o 1/2012 Kuvien julkaisulupa on saatu kuviin merkityiltä tekijänoikeudenhaltijoilta. Tekstiä, kuvia tai piirroksia lainattaessa lähde on mainittava. Kannen kuva: Esa Lappi Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu, Taktiikan laitos ISBN 978-951-25-2317-7 ISBN PDF 978-951-25-2318-4 Juvenes Print Oy Helsinki 2012 3 1 LYHENNELMÄ Tämä taktiikan tutkimus keskittyy tietokoneavusteisen simuloinnin laskennallisiin menetelmiin, joita voidaan käyttää taktisen tason sotapeleissä. Työn tärkeimmät tuotokset ovat laskennalliset mallit todennäköisyyspohjaisen analyysin mahdollistaviin taktisen tason taistelusimulaattoreihin, joita voidaan käyttää vertailevaan analyysiin joukkue-prikaatitason tarkastelutilanteissa. Laskentamallit keskittyvät vaikuttamiseen. Mallit liittyvät vahingoittavan osuman todennäköisyyteen, jonka perusteella vaikutus joukossa on mallinnettu tilakoneina ja Markovin ketjuina. Edelleen näiden tulokset siirretään tapahtumapuuanalyysiin operaation onnistumisen todennäköisyyden osalta. Pienimmän laskentayksikön mallinnustaso on joukkue- tai ryhmätasolla, jotta laskenta-aika prikaatitason sotapelitarkasteluissa pysyisi riittävän lyhyenä samalla, kun tulokset ovat riittävän tarkkoja suomalaiseen maastoon. Joukkueiden mies- ja asejärjestelmävahvuudet ovat jakaumamuodossa, eivätkä yksittäisiä lukuja. Simuloinnin integroinnissa voidaan käyttää asejärjestelmäkohtaisia predictor-corrector –parametreja, mikä mahdollistaa aika-askelta lyhytaikaisempien taistelukentän ilmiöiden mallintamisen. Asemallien pohjana ovat aiemmat tutkimukset ja kenttäkokeet, joista osa kuuluu tähän väitöstutkimukseen. Laskentamallien ohjelmoitavuus ja käytettävyys osana simulointityökalua on osoitettu tekijän johtaman tutkijaryhmän ohjelmoiman ”Sandis”- taistelusimulointiohjelmiston avulla, jota on kehitetty ja käytetty Puolustusvoimien Teknillisessä Tutkimuslaitoksessa. Sandikseen on ohjelmoitu karttakäyttöliittymä ja taistelun kulkua simuloivia laskennallisia malleja. Käyttäjä tai käyttäjäryhmä tekee taktiset päätökset ja syöttää nämä karttakäyttöliittymän avulla simulointiin, jonka tuloksena saadaan kunkin joukkuetason peliyksikön tappioiden jakauma, keskimääräisten tappioiden osalta kunkin asejärjestelmän aiheuttamat tappiot kuhunkin maaliin, ammuskulutus ja radioyhteydet ja niiden tila sekä haavoittuneiden evakuointi-tilanne joukkuetasolta evakuointisairaalaan asti. Tutkimuksen keskeisiä tuloksia (kontribuutio) ovat 1) uusi prikaatitason sotapelitilanteiden laskentamalli, jonka pienin yksikkö on joukkue tai ryhmä; 2) joukon murtumispisteen määritys tappioiden ja haavoittuneiden evakuointiin sitoutuvien taistelijoiden avulla; 3) todennäköisyyspohjaisen riskianalyysin käyttömahdollisuus vertailevassa tutkimuksessa sekä 4) kokeellisesti testatut tulen vaikutusmallit ja 5) toimivat integrointiratkaisut. Työ rajataan maavoimien taistelun joukkuetason todennäköisyysjakaumat luovaan laskentamalliin, kenttälääkinnän malliin ja epäsuoran tulen malliin integrointimenetelmineen sekä niiden antamien tulosten sovellettavuuteen. Ilmasta ja mereltä maahan -asevaikutusta voidaan tarkastella, mutta ei ilma- ja meritaistelua. Menetelmiä soveltavan Sandis -ohjelmiston malleja, käyttötapaa ja ohjelmistotekniikkaa kehitetään edelleen. Merkittäviä jatkotutkimuskohteita mallinnukseen osalta ovat muun muassa kaupunkitaistelu, vaunujen kaksintaistelu ja maaston vaikutus tykistön tuleen sekä materiaalikulutuksen arviointi. 4 2 ABSTRACT Tactical level war gaming using computational simulation is used in military analysis. In this study, computational methods have been developed in order to simulate brigade level scenarios for comparative studies. The brigade level does not allow analysis of all individual soldiers, because of increased number of entities and small time stepping (one second or less). Thus minute-level time stepping was selected, with a platoon or squad as the smallest entity or agent. The computational models of a platoon level unit use Markov chains and state machines. The platoon level unit is considered as a distribution of unit strengths in order to model the stochastic nature of war. Probabilistic risk analysis is possible as fault tree analysis combines platoon level success probabilities with overall operation success probability. Weapon system effects in the simulation are based on earlier studies adjusted for platoon level targets. Adaptive integration is used in the artillery model and the weapon selective predictor-corrector method to model phenomena within the selected longer time step. Field tests were also used to study the goodness of models and parameters. The computational models were tested and their usability as part of the simulation tool was proved by programming them in the Sandis software. The coding team was led by the author at the Finnish Defence Forces Technical Research Center (PVTT). The Sandis tool is used for comparative combat analysis from platoon to brigade level. The input comprises weapon and communication characteristics, units and their weapons, fault logic for units and operation success, map and user actions for units at the platoon level. The output is the operation success probability, probability of each unit being defeated, unit strength distributions, average combat losses and the killer-victim scoreboard, ammunition consumption, radio network availability and medical evacuation logistics and treatment capacity analysis. During the game, the man in the loop is responsible for tactical decisions. The contribution of this dissertation is a novel war gaming model including a success probability tree for brigade level scenarios and the computational models needed for platoon level units. The integration methods for the artillery model and predictor-corrector method are improvements to previous methods used in Finland. Infantry loss models have been created and a field test conducted. The state machines model the action of soldiers under fire and the secondary effects of combat casualties are studied using the resources needed during the evacuation of casualties. These are used in break point analysis instead of a (constant) break point loss percentage. The study is limited to computational models for creating the probabilistic values for platoon level units and their probabilistic use. Air and naval warfare are not part of the study. As another limitation, only open sources are used. Future studies could examine urban warfare, vehicle duel models and analysis of logistics. 5 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS LYHENNELMÄ ....................................................................................................................... 3 ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................. 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS ......................................................................................................... 5 LIST OF PUBLICATIONS ..................................................................................................... 7 LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................. 9 LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................. 11 PREFACE ............................................................................................................................... 12 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 14 2. A REVIEW OF COMPUTATIONAL COMBAT ANALYSES IN THE FINNISH ENVIRONMENT ................................................................................................................... 17 2.1 SOME COMPUTATIONAL COMBAT MODELS FOR LAND WARFARE IN THE FINNISH ENVIRONMENT ..................................................................................................................... 17 2.2 PROBABILISTIC APPROACH ............................................................................................. 19 3. COMBAT MODELING FOR A SIMULATION TOOL ............................................... 21 3.1 STOCHASTIC MODEL OF UNIT STRENGTHS ..................................................................... 21 3.1.1 Introduction to models ....................................................................................... 21 3.1.2 The platoon or squad level solution for simulation tools ................................... 22 3.1.3 Soldier state machine ......................................................................................... 28 3.2 INDIRECT FIRE MODEL .................................................................................................... 29 3.3. MEDICAL EVACUATION MODEL .................................................................................... 32 3.4 PREDICTOR-CORRECTOR METHOD ................................................................................. 33 4. RESULTS ...........................................................................................................................
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