BONNER: GEORGIAN LOSSES AND ’S GAIN

GEORGIAN LOSSES AND RUSSIA’S GAIN

Arthur Bonner

Mr. Bonner is a former foreign correspondent and television writer/ producer. He has published seven books, including three on Protestantism.

ere is what Mensur Akgun, a north. They had been on alert. A month columnist for the Turkish- earlier, they had taken part in a North language daily newspaper Caucasus military exercise. The tanks HReferans wrote — not mincing continued without halting to decimate the words — about Michael Saakashvili’s Georgian city of Gori (Stalin’s birthplace and assault on South Ossetia: “What the the site of a new Georgian military base). Georgian leader did is really insane. No Are Ossetia and Abkhazia matter what the reason is, provoking a big breakaways, as insists, or histori- country like Russia is insane, pure and cal linguistic and ethnic identities? A review simple. After all, you are attacking the peace of the Soviet divide-and-rule process will force of a giant country right before your demonstrate that the evidence is on the nose and hoping that this country will comply side of the statelets. The mountains of the with this and tolerate what you are doing” (tr. Caucasus, ranging to above 9,000 feet, are Turkish Daily News, August 14, 2008). a barricade that has trapped the migration The Georgians opened fire on of peoples into a mosaic of ethnicities, with Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia, each clan asserting its identity. Ossetians, shortly before midnight on August 7 using for instance, are distant descendants of multiple rocket launchers. The barrage Alans, an Iranian nomadic tribe first continued till dawn and was followed by air mentioned in about 1300. They built a large attacks that destroyed schools, churches empire that was destroyed by Huns in the and the main hospital, as well as homes. next century. With the Mongol invasions of Russia claimed 2,000 people were killed, the following centuries, many fled south but, according to the Human Resources across the mountains, hence Ossetian- Watch, the city hospital registered just 44 Alans, as they call themselves. dead and 273 wounded. Crucial from The issue comes down to the right of ’s view is that 15 Russian peace- self-determination — a right first claimed keeping troops stationed there under 1992 by American colonists, let us recall. accords were killed and dozens wounded. Ossetia held two national elections that Three days later, about 150 Russian tanks endorsed independence from Georgia; rumbled through the Roki tunnel from the Abkhazia shares ethnic and cultural roots

© 2008, The Authors Journal Compilation © 2008, Middle East Policy Council

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with north Caucasian peoples, usually national minority. Like a republic, an ASSR lumped together as Circassians. President possessed a language, defined borders, a George W. Bush cites the insistence of the constitution, a university and publishing United Nations on upholding the boundaries houses. Next down was an Autonomous of its members, but the United Nations District (Oblast, AO), a minority with an began as a hastily formed World War II official language and control over local institution to prevent wars between the five affairs, but not entitled to its own university major powers of the era. It has no author- or media. ity over self-determination. In practice, everything was controlled Georgia became part of the Russian through Communist party machinery (the Empire in the eighteenth century, when its nomenklatura) and only secondarily king, fearing annexation by the Ottoman or through local governmental machinery with Persian empires, asked the tsars to annex few local options. When Soviet rule his country. Georgians managed to estab- disintegrated under the impetus of lish their own state in May 1918, following Gorbachev’s Glasnost, the nomenklatura the downfall of the tsars. That ended when glue that held a Soviet republic together the Bolsheviks arrived in 1921 and dissolved. The assets of an ASSR and AO smashed all independent entities, including reduced the cost of declaring freedom. the Georgian state. They were not breakaways. They were Lenin in his early years accepted the dominated subjects, retaining memories of self-rule of ethnicities, which he described freedoms past, reinforced by Lenin’s usage as “nations,” as a convenient tool to of the term “nation.” weaken the tsarist regime and win support- ers among minorities, but once in power he THE DREADFUL ’90s would not allow the dissolution of the Georgia had a population of 4.6 million at Russian empire. As a divide-and-rule the time of the ’s collapse. tactic, the Soviets created “national lan- Several thousand individuals demonstrated in guages” by distorting and adapting various spring 1989 against an Abkhaz attempt at local linguistic variations. The best ex- independence. Gorbachev authorized the use ample is the creation of Kazakh, Uzbek of Soviet troops to crush them, which they and other artificially separated Central did with force in on April 9, leaving 21 Asian regions, despite a common Turkic Georgians dead on the streets. It was called tongue differentiated only by dialects. Black Sunday. Nationalist and anti-Russian After consolidating its authority, the feelings increased in its aftermath. Soviet Federation was fleshed out in 1935 Attention then shifted to South Ossetia. as a republic of many ethnicities and The Soviet Republic of Georgia abolished languages organized on three levels. A its autonomy in 1989 and imposed Georgian Union Republic (SSR) was at the top, with as the official language. South Ossetia a constitution, political institutions and declared its independence in 1992. The symbols, education and media in the Georgians invaded to regain control and nation’s language. Subordinate to it was an were soon defeated. There was a surplus Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic of weapons to be snatched from Soviet (ASSR), defined as the territory of a armories. North Ossetian volunteers armed

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themselves and aided their compatriots in a SAAKASHVILI AND THE “ROSE “just” war for home soil. About one-third REVOLUTION” of the 100,000 people who lived in South (born December Ossetia were Georgian. They fled, mostly 1967) received a law degree from the Kiev to Tbilisi, filling its hotels as internally State University (Ukraine) in 1992 and two displaced persons (IDs). years later another law degree from When Abkhazia declared indepen- Columbia University in . dence in 1989, its population was estimated Through family connections, he received at about 525,000, of whom slightly less than an internship in a prominent New York law 20 percent were Abkhazian, while 45 firm. Shevardnadze, who sought a promi- percent were Georgian (the remainder nent name to bolster his fading regime, mostly Russians and Armenians). A losing invited Saakashvili through an emissary to side in a Georgian factional struggle sought return home. He did and was elected to sanctuary in Abkhazia, touching off a war parliament in December 1995 as a member between Georgians and Abkhazians. of Shevardnadze’s Union of Citizens of Victory went to the local Abkhaz, aided by Georgia party. ever-eager-to-fight Cossacks, volunteers Saakashvili made his reputation as from the Confederation of Mountain chairman of a committee to create a new Peoples of the Caucasus, and some electoral system, an independent judiciary Russians. The war ended with an esti- and a nonpolitical police force, gaining high mated 7,000 killed on both sides. About public recognition. He resigned from parlia- 250,000 Georgians fled, joining the thou- ment in early September 2001 at the peak of sands who earlier had left South Ossetia. his fame, saying, “I consider it immoral for They too were put up in large hotels that me to remain as a member of became warrens of hunger and misery. For Shevardnadze’s government.” He warned years afterward, there was hardly a place that corruption “would turn the country into a to sit in Tbilisi not occupied by a woman, criminal enclave in one or two years.” (Such often with a child, begging for a few coins. heightened speech would become his style.) Georgia came close to collapsing as a Saakashvili founded the United National “failed state.” It was rescued by former Movement (UNM) to prepare to challenge Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard his erstwhile mentor for the presidency. Shevardnadze, who was named president after a coup in early 1992. In June1992, he OTPOR AND KMARA met Soviet President Boris Yeltsin to The student demonstrations that swept establish a ceasefire to be monitored by a most of Europe from the 1960s to the joint peacekeeping force, including 2,500 1980s did not affect Marshal Tito’s Yugo- Russians, in the two regions. slavia. When he was ousted, the most evil Shevardnadze, aided by Russia, built a man in Europe, and the most dangerous to state security force and thus become the oppose, was Serbian leader Slobodan sole master of Georgia by 1995. Further, Milosevic. Massive anti-Milosevic demon- his familiar face at the United Nations strations in Belgrade in March 1991 were brought Georgia international recognition. quickly and violently dispersed by police. Students instead began to develop symbolic

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action. The following year, thousands group, had formed an Otpor clone called chanting “Slobo, You Are Saddam,” wrapped Kmara (the Georgian translation of a mile-long black ribbon around the federal Otpor’s slogan “Enough”). Liberty Institute parliament to protest the siege of Sarajevo. at that time was headed by former CIA But nothing seemed to have any effect. Director James Woolsey. Kmara volun- In the early 1990s, those involved in teers were trained by the Belgrade-based the mass shows of strength turned to acts Center for Nonviolent Resistance and of individual courage to deprive the regime funded by Freedom House, the National of the fear that had become its greatest Democratic Institute and others. Actually, weapon. They titled their actions Otpor, most of its funds came from the Open “Enough.” A recruiting campaign trans- Society Institute of the international formed Otpor into a movement of ulti- financier George Soros, who flew several mately more than 70,000 activists, including of the new activists, including Saakashvili, representatives of political parties. Otpor to Belgrade to prepare them for nonviolent challenged Milosevic by plastering its resistance to the Shevardnadze regime. symbol, a clenched black-and-white fist, Soros paid for fleets of busses to carry and the slogan Gotov Je (“He’s finished”) protestors to parliament. What was publi- throughout Serbia. cized as a “storming” of parliament was a Milosevic, confident he had neutralized peaceful walk-in. Shevardnadze had the opposition, called for an election to already announced his resignation and maintain the appearance of legitimacy. sauntered out a back door. Saakashvili led Opposition political parties and domestic the way through the front door holding a nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), bunch of roses. Shevardnadze’s resigna- aided by their international counterparts tion was officially accepted the next day. and many donors, avoided past mistakes by developing firm unity, organizing get-out- “WE WON’T FORGIVE THOSE the-vote drives and monitoring the results WHO SPIT AT US” to prevent fraud. Finally, the electorate President George W. Bush flew to forced the Milosevic government from Tbilisi on May 9, 2005, to welcome the power in October 2000. newcomers to democracy, passing along a This inspired students at Tbilisi State freshly tarred road with a curve at the end University to protest official corruption at where his car had to slow down to read a their school. In 2000, nearly 2,500 students huge sign proclaiming it George W. Bush elected the first student government at a Street. The president later addressed a state university in Georgia’s history. Similar crowd in the city’s Freedom Square, student governments were elected in praising Georgia as a model for democracy universities across the country. The event movements around the world. To conceive that initiated a move for sweeping change of democracy in the Caucasus defies was an election in November 2003. It was reason and history. None of its states have charged that Shevardnadze’s claim of advanced politically beyond their tribal victory was based on rigging the vote. origins as extended clans. Each intrigues International observers agreed. By then, against its neighbors, yet all clans unite Liberty Institute, a Georgian human-rights when challenged by a linguistic intruder.

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In the following years, the media Saakashvili made a speech in Poland in portrayed Georgia, in the words of Mark September 2006 that some Russian media Almond of Oxford’s Oriel College, as a interpreted as depicting Russia as a version of “Camelot in the Caucasus.” For “barbarous tribe of Huns.” instance, the British weekly The Econo- Capping it all, on September 27, 2006, mist gushed on August 9, 2004: Georgia arrested four Russians on charges of espionage. The next day, Russia recalled its Mikheil Saakashvili has the charm and just-appointed ambassador, Vyacheslav energy of youth, the advantage of Kovalenko. Sergei Mironov, the speaker of the good English and a clear commitment upper house of Russia”s Parliament, warned: to liberal democracy, which he “We won’t forgive those who spit at us.” proposes to apply to the whole of his Saakashvili told reporters the four men country. His arrival on the scene, his popularity, and his policies offer living would be freed despite “a very solid case proof that things can go right in the of espionage, subversion and trying to southern Caucasus. destabilize my country.” Aside from the charge of destabilization, typical of It was more likely that things would go Saakashvili’s heightened speech, the others wrong, and they did. With each side were probably true. Moscow rebutted that claiming the other was provocative, there the men were arranging the closure of the was a tit-for-tat of retaliations. Russia last of two Russian bases in Georgia, but banned the import of Georgian wines in their activities had the earmarks of Russian late March 2006, claiming they contained military intelligence. impurities. Wine was Georgia’s second- Saakashvili’s mistake was not simply to most-important export (after fruits), with expel the four men but to attempt to make 70 percent of its them examples of production going to Russian interfer- its northern Russia’s earlier retaliatory ence in his nation’s neighbor. The ban actions, including a ban on internal affairs. He was disastrous. At announced they least half its granting visas to Georgians, would be “pa- grapes were left to had the incidental value of roled.” They were rot on the vine. emphasizing how dependent to be handed over In July 2006, Georgia was on Russia. . . . to the chairman of Georgian police the Organization and security One million Georgians live in for Security and forces took control Russia as foreign workers. Cooperation in of the Kodori Europe (OSCE), Valley of but not before they Abkhazia, hitherto controlled by local were paraded, one by one, guarded on both Georgian militias. The valley, really a steep sides, before the international media while rift, had no importance. Georgia’s thrust a list of espionage charges against them was an attempt to establish a back way was read aloud. The four were joined by into central Abkhazia. two others, who had holed up in the

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Russian embassy, and all six left for doubt it was his action alone. The rocketing Moscow the next day. of Tskhinvali began with no advance Russia’s earlier retaliatory actions, discussion in Georgia’s parliament or including a ban on granting visas to Geor- foreign office. On August 18, 2008, Tara gians, had the incidental value of emphasiz- McCormack, a lecturer in ing how dependent Georgia was on Russia. Studies and International Relations at the Mikhail Kasyanov, the leader of Russia’s University of Westminster, wrote an article Peoples Democratic Union, estimated that for Spiked, a British online journal of one million Georgians lived in Russia as opinion. “The crisis in Georgia has been foreign workers. It is impossible to deter- depicted in terms of a democratic state mine the actual number because, according bravely standing up to its former colonial to Russian authorities, more than half the master, Russia,” she wrote. As to why Georgians were working illegally and Saakashvili attacked South Ossetia, she hence not enumerated. Russian lawmakers suggested it “…was an attempt by scheduled debate, but took no action, on a Saakashvili to resolve his weak position bill that would have barred Georgians living domestically via his international sponsors.” in Russia from cabling money home. Boris Ms. McCormack sought a reasonable Gryzlov, the speaker of Russia’s lower political answer. But, though the suggestion house, said Georgians living in Russia sent of insanity offered by Turkish columnist home about $1 billion a year. Mensur Akgun cited at the start of this The crisis subsided by the end of article may be excessive, it is possible to December 2006, when Russian Ambassa- consider some sort of pathology. In an dor Vyacheslav Kovalenko returned to online interview with CNN during the first Tbilisi to deliver letters of accreditation to days of the affair, Saakashvili referred to President Saakashvili that he had not South Ossetia as “my country,” personaliz- submitted earlier because of his abrupt ing the struggle. Then there was the recall. He said he hoped for better days. bizarre press conference on August 15, As an expression of good faith, flights to 2008, after U.S. Secretary of State and from Russia and Tbilisi were resumed Condoleezza Rice went to Tbilisi to tell him in late March, 18 months after the start of no troops would be coming to his aid. the espionage row. Sea links were restored Saakashvili blamed the Russian invasion on a week later, with Russian passenger a NATO meeting in April 2008, where steamship travel from the Black Sea port Georgia failed to gain admission to that of Sochi to Georgia’s Batumi port. organization. With the stone-faced Rice Kovalenko conceded there were bilateral next to him, Saakashvili went on: “So who problems but promised that Russia would invited the trouble here? Who invited this make every effort to ensure they would be arrogance here? Who invited these inno- resolved, adding it was up to Georgia to cent deaths here? Not only those people make reciprocal moves. who perpetrate them are responsible, but also those people who failed to stop it.” RUSSIA’S GAIN Apparently the “who” was all except him. The question will always be: Why did He was nearly in tears. Rice later spoke of Saakashvili pull the trigger? There is no “an emotional moment.”

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A newcomer journalist in Tbilisi, “The is our great friend,” sensing anomalies, noticed the curious fact Georgian Defense Minister David that almost every public building was Kezerashvili told reporters. He added: decorated with the circle-of-stars flag of “They have arrived at such a difficult time. the United Nations. He even found a It means we are not alone,” ignoring the decrepit country school flying the flag. fact that Georgia was left alone when Saakashvili has the flag on his left when- Russian tanks were roaming widely. As if ever he appears on camera for television to make up for this, on September 3, the interviews. There is no possibility that the White House announced a comprehensive United Nations will accept such a small, aid package valued at $1.1 billion to help remote and troubled nation. It is as if Georgia recover from the beating it took Saakashvili believes he can make the after attacking South Ossetia, dream come true by flying the flag. Saakashvili’s attack on South Ossetia On September 17, 2007, the Christian did Vladimir Putin an immeasurable favor. Science Monitor reported, “Georgia is no Putin, with his swift and decisive response, free-spirited democratic republic, but an demonstrated that Russia’s rebirth from the increasingly authoritarian regime that bans failed Soviet Union was so decisive that it overly critical media outlets and could thumb its nose at those demanding a criminalizes opposition parties.” A month quick withdrawal from Georgia. As the later, about a half dozen opposition leaders new president of Russia, Dmitry were accused of espionage and plotting a Medvedev, said on August 12, the Russians coup. They were arrested and remain in would withdraw only after the “aggressor prison, without formal charges or a trial. is punished and its military forces are In the short term at least, the rocketing unraveled.” (As a side issue, a mere threat of South Ossetia did seem a political from the Abkhaz sent the Georgians success for Saakashvili. When news scurrying from the Kodori Valley.) spread that France’s Nicolas Sarkozy had negotiated a ceasefire, hundreds of thou- GULLING THE GULLIBLE sands of Georgians flooded Rustaveli The most detailed analysis of contempo- Avenue, Tbilisi’s main street, to read poetry rary Georgia is a November 3, 2007, report and sing songs as if they had won a by Mark Almond of Oxford’s Oriel College, victory. Then the United States demon- “Black Roses: Georgia’s Reformers Fall Out; strated support in August 2008 by sending Georgia’s Transition from ‘People Power’ to three warships, including the Mount Caucasian Cockpit.” In the introduction to Whitney, the flagship of the Navy’s the 17-page text, which is available online, Mediterranean fleet, ostensibly to deliver Almond lists his visits to Georgia: “a dozen relief supplies. (The reason for the subter- times since 1992 on behalf of the British fuge was that the Montreux Convention of Helsinki Human Rights Group and (in 1995) 1936 bans sending ships to the Black Sea the Norwegian Helsinki Human Rights without the specific permission of Turkey. Group.”Almond writes: The convention specifies that ships trans- porting aid cannot be barred. Even so, Georgians have a long history of warships would be limited to 21 days.) gulling gullible journalists. After all, fellow traveling was invented by

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hacks hanging on Stalin’s every word, minister. There was a dramatic falling out but any anthropologist or sociologist when Okruashvili left Saakashvili’s govern- would point out that young people are ment in November 2006. Ten months later, the most socialized to the dominant he launched a “Movement for a United system. It is all they have known. In Georgia” and held a press conference from this case it is all their parents and which Almond borrowed the above quota- grandparents knew and served. Far from representing an automatic break tion. One of his revelations is of particular with Soviet behavioral norms in note: “Three years ago I detained Georgia, Saakashvili and his genera- Saakashvili’s uncle, Temur Alasania, for tion exemplified the way Sovietised taking a bribe of $200,000, but the president Georgians operated within a patronage made me release him.” The Alasania clan is system dominated by a distant all- one of the most powerful in Georgia. powerful boss. Shevardnadze saw the Okruashvili was arrested two days later and sun rise in Moscow, ‘where Lenin taken to Tbilisi’s Isolator Number 7, de- lies;’ Saakashvili sees the sun rise in scribed by Mark Almond as “the scene of the West, in Washington. well-documented torture of political prisoners since 1991.” With such “encour- Almond begins his report with two agement,” Okruashvili not only recanted quotations. The first: “Georgia has made his charges but confessed to his own stunning progress in carrying out substantial crimes in a video session with interrogators economic, judicial and state reforms … that but without his lawyer present. Okruashvili should allow Georgia to become a prosper- posted bail of almost $6 million and was ous liberal market economy and a full- released. No one asked how a man on a fledged democracy governed by human meager government salary who had made rights and the rule of law. Georgia has set an his reputation as a corruption fighter had so example for the whole region and beyond” much money at his disposal. (Council of Europe rapporteurs Matyas Eorsi Defying the American naval expres- and Kastriot Islami, September 13, 2007). sion of “friendship” for Georgians, Russian The second: “The style of Saakashvili’s President Medvedev on August 27, 2008, governance … has made dishonesty, announced he had signed a decree recog- injustice and oppression a way of life. nizing the independence of South Ossetia Everyday repression, demolition of houses and Abkhazia. “We are not afraid of and churches, robbery, ‘kulakization’, and anything, including the prospect of a new murders — I would stress — murders, Cold War,” he said. At a later news have become common practice for the conference, Russia’s foreign minister, authorities.” The source was former Sergey Lavrov, answered questions about Georgian Defense Minister Irakli the smallness of South Ossetia. “There are Okruashvili, September 25, 2007). at least half a dozen UN members whose Okruashvili was the best informed. He population is less than the population of and Saakashvili were the two leading figures South Ossetia,” he said. Others pointed to in the purported “Rose Revolution.” the flourishing European principalities of Okruashvili later served as prosecutor- Liechtenstein and Andorra, both of which general, purging supporters of ousted Presi- are about the size of South Ossetia. dent Shevardnadze and then as defense

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What appeared to be a final settlement Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze an- was reached in early September, when nounced that his nation had broken diplo- European Union leaders, led by French matic relations with Russia because its President Nicolas Sarkozy, met with forces still occupy part of Georgia. Thus it Lavrov at a castle outside Moscow. They seemed impossible for Georgia to join any agreed that Russian forces in buffer zones organization seeking reconciliation. outside South Ossetia and Abkhazia would Turkish President Abdullah Gul flew to pull back within a month, to be replaced Yerevan September 8 at the invitation of with an international monitoring force Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan to including a 200-strong EU contingent. watch a World Cup qualifying match be- Lavrov termed the agreement a vindication tween the soccer teams of the two nations. because it included an EU guarantee that Gul’s motorcade from the airport traveled Georgia would not use force again against along streets lined with thousands of people the so-called separatists. After the UN holding placards reading in English and leaders left, he made clear that 3,800 Armenian, “We want justice”; “Turkey admit Russian troops would be stationed in each your guilt”; and “1915 never again.” The two republic, adding: “They will be there for a leaders watched the game behind bullet- long time, at least for the foreseeable proof glass at the stadium, which is only 500 period. That is necessary to not allow a meters from a memorial dedicated to the repeat of Georgian aggression.” It repre- Armenians killed in World War I. Armenian sented a total defeat for Saakashvili. Not fans whistled when the Turkish national only had the states gained defacto recogni- anthem was played at the start of the game. tion, but there would be a UN force to bar (The Turkish team won, 2-0.) future Georgian ambitions. According to official Turkish policy, normalization of ties depends particularly TURKEY AS A CONCILIATOR on Armenian withdrawal from the former Perhaps there is a final bonus, a search Soviet Armenian Oblast of Nagorno- for a thaw in the frozen conflicts that have Karabakh in Azerbaijan (the region and plagued the Caucasus for almost two surrounding territory were seized by decades. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Armenia in a struggle between 1988 and Tayyip Erdogan, after a string of meetings 1994), as well as an end to Armenian with Russian, Georgian and Azerbaijani genocide claims and an official endorse- leaders, conceived the idea of a “Caucasus ment by Armenia of the current borders Stability and Cooperation Platform” to between the two countries. No one, create an inclusive (Russia, Turkey, certainly not Gul, could claim success. At Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan) new best, Gul told reporters on the plane back approach. At first glance, it seemed to Ankara, “My visit broke psychological impossible. Azerbaijan, for one, was barriers in the Caucasus.” He said he had unlikely to warm to cooperation with won Yerevan’s support for the new re- Armenia due to Armenia’s continued gional grouping in the Caucasus and that occupation of 20 percent of the Azeri there was not even a veiled reference to Soviet state. An added complication came the genocide issue during a one-and-a-half- in late August 2008. Georgia’s Deputy hour meeting with Sarksyan. In contrast,

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the Armenian president raised the issue of as well as 56.4 percent of its thermal coal, Nagorno-Karabakh, Gul said. “I wasn’t used in the country’s booming power and expecting we would discuss the issue at construction sectors. Moreover, it is depend- such length,” he added. able. After Iran turned off its gas to Turkey Two days later, Gul flew to Baku for a in 2007 to meet its own domestic needs, follow-up meeting with Azerbaijani President Russia promptly filled the gap. Ilham Aliyev. On his return journey Gul said, A final offset of the Georgian conflict “I have seen there the same honest, clear, must be mentioned. The Baku-Tbilisi- sincere desire for a solution and respect for Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, completed in the adversary that I witnessed earlier in mid-2003, has a daily capacity to transfer a Armenia.” For his part, Aliyev told reporters million barrels of oil from Azerbaijan to he was optimistic, simply saying: “There are Turkey’s oil port on the Mediterranean. some factors and news that give hope.” Pipelines were extended to Eastern Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov Europe, ending Russia’s virtual monopoly announced that Moscow will cooperate to on the supply of oil to Europe. The United set the framework of the new Caucasus States and EU have long urged a start of mechanism. “This initiative is based on what is known as the Nabucco pipeline common sense,” he said, adding that the project as another route from the Caspian, countries of the region should deal with the bypassing Russia. Plans, which never problems rather than countries from afar firmed up in any case, may now be perma- imposing their own solutions. This was nently shelved. reference to the fact that the five-nation Socar, the Azerbaijan state energy platform will shut out the United States. firm, citing fears of instability in Georgia, Lavrov had praise for Turkey. While has announced that it expects to reroute Russia has accused NATO countries of 300,000-400,000 metric tons of crude oil in arming Georgia, Lavrov saw Turkey’s 2008 through Russia, using the Baku- NATO membership as no obstacle for Novorossiysk pipeline rather than the BTC Turkish-Russian friendship. This was link. In addition, Socar, according to a recognition of a 180-degree turnabout. company statement reported by Reuters, is During the Cold War, Turkey was NATO’s considering pumping 1.3 million to 1.4 million southern flank to isolate the Soviet Union. tons through Russia. If there is a final Azeri Now, Russia is Turkey’s leading trade decision not to risk its supplies through partner, supplying it with up to 70 percent of Georgia, this could easily be enormously its natural-gas needs through two pipelines, increased. Another Russian gain.

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